Dry for Days

51 Comments

3:00 AM

It looks like we’re in for several days of generally dry, chilly weather, thanks to upper level low pressure over southeastern Canada (pushing the storm track to the south) and surface high pressure spending most of its time over south central Canada, ridging down over the Great Lakes (supplying chilly, dry air. This pattern appears to want to lock in for a while.

Our friends the GFS & Euro disagree on when this pattern will break, with the GFS wanting to slide a low pressure system across the Northeast March 30-31, and the Euro waiting for a day or 2 longer. For the  moment, I’m leaning toward the slower Euro. One thing seems pretty certain though, the overall pattern will be a chilly one for some time to come…

Looking out a bit further…I think we stay in a relatively cool pattern in early April, but return to a more active pattern with several storm passages in fairly rapid succession. And sticking with that original March 15 to April 15 window for a final significant snowfall for parts of the Boston Area, I still feel this is not 100% out of the question. Climatology alone supports this, and the pattern beyond the final days of March may also do same.

Boston Area Forecast for the next several days…

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then a mix of sun & a fair amount of diurnal clouds. Slight risk of a passing light snow shower. High in the lower 40s. Wind W to NW 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then clearing. Low in the upper 20s. Wind W up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High in the upper 30s to 40. Wind WNW 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the lower 20s inland to upper 20s coast. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15  mph.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Continued dry weather. Sunniest early in the week. More clouds midweek. Highs closer to 40 Monday moderating toward 50 by Thursday.

Have a great day!

51 thoughts on “Dry for Days”

  1. It appears we have some boring weather on our hands. The temperatures for the next week look perfect for collecting sap from the tree’s to make maple syrup. Unfortunately, I think it might be too late around eastern mass for that. At least the dry well will give me a chance to get some things done around the yard this weekend.

    NWS Discussion:
    BY WED OR SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO
    RELAX AND MARITIME VORTEX TO EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLC. THIS PATTERN
    WILL BE REPLACED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS LATE NEXT
    WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GREATER
    CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY WILL BE LOW IN
    RESPONSE TO DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.
    NEVERTHELESS THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z GUID FOR
    A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM AND SIGNIFICANT QPF TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!

  2. Coastal I read that as well. Just don’t want it on Friday as I fly out:-)
    Looks like the GFS now holds it back a little as well. Wether any snow it’s looks loaded with QPF.

  3. Some of out biggest springs storm originate when the NAO flips from negative to positive. The flip buckles the jet but still leaves a little cold air. It has to to be a perfect track by April to get snow in Boston.

    1. Hi Coastal and Hadi.

      Good stuff………… Eastern end of Marshfield was hit by a snow shower of graupel at some point overnight. Looked pretty night with a light covering of the stuff. One half mile further west….nothing…..Have a good day all.

        1. Same in my area. I only have two very small snow piles in my yard. Not enough to stop me from doing some yard work this weekend.

  4. The 06Z GFS looks like the storms around the 30th and 4th start as some type of wintry precipitation then switches to rain with a possibility of flipping back at the tail end. The 0z GFS gives less qpf on the 30th but also appears to be colder on the 30th event. The 4th looks to be a lot of qpf with the 0c line collapsing after it passes our latitude.

  6. Hi, all,

    I found it really fascinating yesterday with the snow showers late yesterday afternoon. The flakes were really big but they meant business and here in Sudbury we got a good coating – almost an inch. I guess it was just the sun’s angle but it looked like a summer shower except it was snow. And then just before the snow ended, the sun came out. Very pretty.

    I have been trying to read the computer models in the past few months (never looked at them before) and I am still trying to figure them out, ‘though I can read some of them and figure out what might happen in the future.

    Have a good weekend.

    rainshine

    1. JMA- I am glad to see you here, I have always enjoyed reading your posts. Coastal got me on a couple days ago, and I am so glad he did. Boy the sun is beaming here in Pembroke but I guess that March sun won’t do to much for us today. Interesting weatherday yesterday. Big flakes to snizzle.than nothing back to good snowbursts and than the sun shines with snow flying in the air. I thought that looked cool. And than overnight we had the graupel- someday.

  10. It is great to see a forum without all of the fighting. I have to admit I am looking forward to the spring now that the snow has melted. I really would like to see one more good size snowstorm, but I do have to get working on the yard. It is nice to see the familiar names on this site. I have to admit I do not post as much outside the winter season but I am always on listening to what you guys have to say. Unless, there is a hurricane on the way then I will be posting a lot.

  12. Greetings all, it is great to come to a site that is about the weather and not full of BS. I was wondering about April 2? I know it’s a ways off but we have the Annual Herring Run clean up and it would be nice to have a good day.

    Thanks much,
    Merlin

  13. Hadi, I just got back from Fort Meyers — morning fog followed by mid 80’s everyday with late afternoon breezes. Saw the Sox play; wore shorts; and went swimming. I am not a big FLA fan, but this year it sure was nice. Have a good trip.

  14. So nice to have a mature troll free blog again.
    I could really use a trip to Florida, going to be awhile till we see 70’s again. Even 60’s won’t appear for Atleast a week.

    1. I will be looking for those 60’s and warmer temps soon- can’t wait. Is this the same Scott that is in high school. If so you are very smart and know your weather. I alway’s learn somthing from your blogs. It is not that bad of a day today, warmer than yesterday.

      1. Yeah I am junior in high school, looking towards applying/attending(if accepted) to Lyndon State College for a meteorology degree, which won’t be easy.
        That sun this time of year makes it feel a lot warmer than the actual temperature, of course if there’s a north wind blowing, you would feel the chill.

  15. Thanks Longshot. I am heading to Orlando and it looks a little dicey for my weather to start from what I can see. With the NAO going positive in the middle of the next week I am hoping that it clear things out in FL. Brian was gonna give me his thoughts on 4/1 -4/8 weather chances there, but if anyone else has more info then I do I would love to hear it.

  16. The Weather Channel is calling for showers on April 2, I was wondering if anyone had a different forecast?

    1. Scott, thanks for sharing that info with us. I went to the AcccuWeather site earlier but Brett hadn’t posted it yet. NOW I have no doubt that we will see snow this spring for sure…assuming the Euro verifies of course.

  18. Thanks coastal for leading me to this site! Now I can take my time and gather my thoughts while posting without having to worry about “refreshing”. Keeping my fingers crossed that the trolls don’t find out about this website. Having said that, I would also hope that some “new” bloggers could be welcome here as well. After this weekend, I will decide as to whether to put my shovel away or not. Last year I put away my shovel around the first day of spring, but I still have this feeling that even though it is going to warm up next midweek, one final blast of cold will arrive this time with storminess at some point. NWS (and Henry Margusity) is very concerned about a major coastal storm next week. We will see as usual.

    1. Even if they manage to find it, I’m surrounded by tech geeks in this house. We’ll take care of it. 🙂

  19. When I look at the models today, all I see is a high pressure area sitting stubbornly in the northern midwest/southern Canada area for the upcoming week. It sends everything else south of us. Do agree with Topkatt that the pattern breaks at different points in time depending on which model you choose. Late next week and the week after look “busy.”

    1. Hey Longshot- Do you think we could be done with snow- how would you define looking busy. I had read a CH7 forcast lastweek and PB said that the cold air in place would push any snow away, is there any truth to that. Also interesting what Scott just posted winter to summer.

  20. Took a look at the 12z GFS…
    Late next week could have a storm, which was OTS described by the 12z run of the GFS.

    The long range showed significant troughing in the east that seemed persistent.

    At the moment, both the GFS and EURO point to a below average April in terms of temps with the storms passing south of us.

    1. Scott- I had heard this morning that by next weekend we should be trending warmer like the 50s and Tk made mention to this. What do you think about my last post on what I read on whdh. Just got back in-not a bad day today, have been in and out all day not having to wear a jacket. If I can have it just a tad bit warmer tommorow It would be great- I have 23 people coming to my house and would be great to have the kids playing outside.

  21. yes i think early-mid next week looks to get milder, i wouldn’t say warmer(save that for 60’s). mid 40’s to low 50’s could be with us. but late next week could feature a storm, and after that goes by, a below normal pattern in terms of temps should develop. of course this is long range material, so i wouldn’t buy a much colder than normal April just yet.

    im along the water, got a chilly wind going, but when that sun shines, it’s beautiful out.

    tomorrow should be a tad cooler, but less clouds. could be a windy day though.

  22. Today was a nice surprise, the fairly decent amount of sun was great !! I like the cumulus clouds, not seen very often over the past several cold season months…………. I, like everyone else, try to take the long range model runs with a grain of salt, however……I’m not so sure snow is done yet. Cool, dry air with storms occasionally passing to our south always offer the possibility.

    1. I’m sticking right with the idea of not being out of the woods (regarding potential snow threats) until about April 15.

  23. Hi guys & gals! I’m at the keys for an hour or so before heading back out. Not a bad day out there but chilly! Maybe a bit less in coverage of cumulus/stratocumulus than I expected this afternoon, but it’s allowing more sun, which feels nice despite the late March chill!

    For anyone posting, I realize that using your screen name from WBZ is probably easiest as 1) You’re used to it and 2) people know who you are. But feel free to use your real name if you want.

    A couple things that will be happening soon here…
    – A few minor cosmetic changes. I’m in the early days of this blog & I basically suck at tech stuff. My wife is the tech geek of the family so she’ll help me out with some of that.
    – Some advertising may show up on the side soon, but it’s not like you don’t see this on most sites you visit.
    – Graphics in my posts (eventually but not just yet). I’m working on this site, and an internet radio station that will probably have weather-related podcasts eventually.
    – Different sections in the blog (one for just my forecast, another for daily chatting alot like what is going on here now). Should make it less cluttered and easier to find stuff.

    Big dreams for this place. Just be patient. 🙂

  25. The sun felt really nice today!! Welcome Phillip, really nice to have this area to talk weather.

    Brian I was wondering when you would put up ad’s, with so many coming I was hoping you would for your benefit:-) Any more thoughts for me on my Florida weather, you better have good news is what my wife says:-)

    1. Yes, they will benefit me and allow fancier stuff in the future. 🙂

      As for Florida, a cold front is going to chug through there, but not sure which day. Going to lean toward April 1 for that. Overall, I don’t see it as being bad down there when you are there.

  26. Looking at 12z GFS vs 12z Euro. I think the GFS’s handling of the pattern is somewhat erratic and I don’t like the timing of the system that breaks the dry spell. It may be too fast. The Euro had that system 2 days later on yesterday’s runs (April 1), but has moved it up a bit to March 31 on the most recent run. Though I support the idea the Euro has about the overall pattern, I’m a little nervous about speeding that system up right now, so I’ll split the difference on the next blog forecast update and just go with increasing clouds for day 6 (Thursday), then adjust from there. Can’t completely discount the GFS, I just feel it may have timing issues, as it does not handle transitional patterns very well. Built-in climatalogical bias in the model may also play a role in any timing problems.

  27. John, sorry I couldn’t get back to you earlier — somehow work tends to interfere with fun. Any way my response would have been the same as Scott’s above — storms beginning late next week though it does look to get warmer before it gets colder again.

  29. Great site, thanks for all your hard work TK and everyone else putting in the time for others to enjoy. I have to admit I am not a lover of the spring because of the weather we are about to have. At this time of year if it isn’t going to snow I wish it would warm up. But it look as though there is no real warm up in the foreseeable future.

  30. To coastal (and anyone else interested)… Since you (coastal) are getting the emails requesting this web page, one way to keep a look-out for “itoldyouso” and all his other names is to get him talking to you via email and look for the following clue: when he types he puts a space before AND after the commas (example: “what’s the point of snow , but i am moving to california anyway!”). You can also pick this out on the WBZ blog and see that he is responsible for just about all of the trouble out there right now. Yes there have been a few other troublemakers, but he’s the main one.

    I am not talking about someone like coach23. That person, though abrasive at times, is generally civil, and I would welcome them to this blog without a problem.

    1. Godfather, there are two others. One is very interesting in which i have been observing. I am short on time now but will speak more of this tomorrow when i have more time. There is only two people that I know of, maybe three, that i did not pass a long the link too.

      Ear muffs, Good night all!

    2. He also uses i not I in reference to himself, he does not use complete sentences
      words followed by …. spelling is not so good, and he does not use uppercase letters very often. Great site!

      Cheerio, Merlin

      1. Yes, excellent obs.

        Hopefully soon we won’t need to talk about this guy and can just concentrate on what we are here for. 🙂

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