To Phase Or Not To Phase?

491 Comments

4:55PM

Several low pressure systems coming at the East Coast this week will be measured by their ability to phase, or the ability for energy in the northern and southern jet streams (a split flow pattern) to link up. When this happens, larger storms result.

The first 2 systems are easy: One passing just south of New England Tuesday morning and another coming through the region during the day Wednesday, moving mainly west to east, not linking up with energy further to the south. These systems will produce light snow on the South Coast and scattered snow showers, respectively, with minor accumulations at best.  A system being eyed for Friday is less certain, not only because it is further out in time, but because computer guidance varies from a nearly harmless non-phased couplet moving west to east with the northern one giving some light snow or snow showers to the region, similar to Wednesday, to a phased system that brings a major coastal storm with wind/rain/snow. The dilemma in terms of being a forecaster is that the computer model giving the “big hit” is one that is often fairly accurate and one of the first to pick out the track of a storm. My meteorological sense tells me not to ignore this, but my gut feeling is telling me that the Friday system will have trouble phasing due to speed differences in the northern vs southern jet stream energy. For now, it will just be something to keep an eye on, and keep the forecast wording fairly generic.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear 1st half of night, clouds return west to east later. Lows from 10 outlying areas to 15-20 urban centers & Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH 1st half of night diminishing to 5-10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with heaviest clouds south of the Mass Pike, including a period of snow of up to but mostly less than 1 inch near the South Coast. Increasing sun especially north and west of Boston during the remainder of the afternoon. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s northwest to southeast. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase again. Snow showers possible before dawn especially west of Boston. Lows around 20. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers , accumulations under 1/2 inch. Highs from the lower to middle 30s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunshine giving way to clouds. Low 17. High 37.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 28. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 31. High 46.

491 thoughts on “To Phase Or Not To Phase?”

  3. Hi Vicki,

    You mentioned that JR said this morning that Boston has never had back to back winters under 20 inches of snow, well yet again we did come close regarding that:

    1990-91 = 19.1″
    1991-92 = 22.0″

    1. Wow. 1992 surprises me. There was a major storm in December of that year. It was the first time my kids had ever missed more than one day of school due to snow. They missed three. My inlaws were driving up from SC and got stuck in CT. Wonder if that was the only storm. I do so wish we didnt use Boston for a reference. It’s so deceptive.

        1. Vicki, that December storm would be included in the 1992-93 winter season = 83.9″ 🙂

          I drove from Dorchester to Quincy to a dental appointment and I went from several inches of snow (I believe Logan got around 9″ or so) to bare ground.

  5. Boston had 8 winters in a row of below normal snowfall from 1907-1915 which is the longest to date. The next longest is 7 winters from 1948-1955.

    Consequently, Boston had 9 winters in a row of above normal snowfall from 1963-1972 which is the longest to date. The next longest is 4 winters from 1891-1895. There have been several with 3 winters in a row.

  7. It feels good to be home on a Monday night. The last two were spent doing snow removal all night at the hospital. All nighters tough for me as I’m not really a night person.

        1. Not leaning in either direction…just saying that if does snow, you would have to come in to work in that timeframe, correct?

  8. TK, am I correct on this thinking for Friday’s storm for Boston?

    Phasing = less snow (more QPF…warmer)
    NO Phasing = more snow (less QPF…colder)

    Does this make sense?

    1. It does based on the current guidance.

      I’m leaning toward no phasing at this point. Long way to go though.

  9. Weak system end of the week. The trend is your friend and all winter we have not seen the two branches of the jet stream phase. I hope I am wrong.

  10. I’m actually leaning towards alot of precip and most of it in the form of rain starting Friday and beyond along with a warming trend.

  12. During these warm-ups, many of these systems look really wet but most of the time they underachieve in terms of rain.

  13. We should have rescheduled our outing for Friday night, then we could count on the storm hitting us hard.

    2. If you do, I’m blaming all of you if we get a blizzard that day. (2/28 is the one day I really, REALLY want calm weather — I’m flying out of Logan for a vacation trip. Don’t jinx it. 😉 )

  15. Of course you say it’s gonna rain Charlie 🙂

    Let it snow up in the mountains please!!! I am heading to Smuggler’s for school vacation week.

        2. I’m with Charlie, I’m done with snow. If we got nothing the rest of winter I would be happy. I don’t think that will happen as I think we get more than a couple events. But like it or not winter is half over. People were talking at work today saying we are over the top of the hill and already February 4th. It’s like labor day weekend, I hate it. You know you will have more warm days but the cold and snow are real near. Same here. We know more cold and possible snowy conditions will be happening but spring Will knocking at the door and all comes to life again. My wife said today that hyacanth plants out. Don’t think I spelled that right.

  17. My father passed away a couple of days ago. He lived a good, long life, and had been sick for several years. While it is sad to no longer have him around, I’m glad he’s no longer suffering. His respiratory distress in recent days and weeks was so obviously painful. His funeral will be at the family plot in south-central Pennsylvania on Friday. My weather-related question is this: Interior PA often gets snow when we get rain. Is that the expectation Friday? I am driving to Philadelphia (to my sister’s) on Thursday. No snow or weather that day. We’ll all head over to the burial site on Friday morning. Then, back to Boston for me. I may delay this until Saturday.

    1. I am so sorry for your loss Joshua. Please know I will be keeping your family in my thoughts and prayers.

    3. Very sorry for your loss. I will say a prayer for you and your family tonight. Hang in there and know that people here will be thinking of you. Again I am very sorry.

    6. Very sorry to hear about your father, Joshua.

      If those systems do not phase, whatever precipitation they get may be done by late morning Friday and then a drying trend will be underway.

    8. So very sorry to hear of your father, Joshua. May the fond memories help you and your family get through this difficult time.

    11. I know I’m reading this late – Joshua, I’m so sorry to hear about your dad – my mom passed almost 4 months ago of a brief illness. I know how hard it is, and I just wanted to extend my deepest sympathies to you and your family. My best advice is to remember your dad as he was when he was healthy and active, and know he will be in your heart forever. Big hugs, and safe travels.

  20. So sorry Joshua. I dread the day I have to deal with that, but clearly he is in a better place.

    If you look athe euro I think it get organized but further north than PA. Maybe some snow but it doesn’t look overly powerful in PA.

    1. Thank you, Hadi (also for the information on the weather this Friday). And thank you Sue, North, TK, John, JJ, Tj, and others for your kind words. My father was not exactly a weather nut like me, but he was the only other person in my family with whom I could talk weather. He taught me about nor’easters many moons ago. I remember sitting on his lap in late 1969 or early 1970 in our Nahant home, as a nor’easter was raging outside. He loved to tell dramatic tales to his children, and so he embellished (I guess we would say `hyped’ nowadays). I liked hearing about what in essence was my Dad’s version of the perfect storm. Our home overlooked Egg rock (I think that’s what it’s called) and I imagined shipwrecks, galeforce winds and pelting sleet and snow while my father told his story.

  25. John I agree with your earlier comment. I was just saying If I had to pick between rain and OTS I would say ots before rain.

  28. Its been a long time since we have had a nice high to the north and a benchmark storm. The high to the north a key ingredient to draw done the cold air and the track right to the benchmark aka the sweet spot for good snows in SNE.

  29. On a side note Boston continues to grow and had a population last year 2012 of 625,747 residents and now 2013 has an est population 631,498 residents, great news!!

    1. I’m hoping that Quincy crosses the 100,000 poulationmark with the construction that’s scheduled to begin any day now in Quincy Square. They are planning to spend $ 1.5 billion on rejuvenating Qncy’s downtown over the next ten years. It will be something to see this transformation.

  30. Interesting tweet from Kevin L from fox 25.

    TK do you know of an analysis that exists.

    @klemanowicz: @hadikasrawi haven’t seen it in my experience. is there a quantitative analysis? everyone loved it for Sandy. I didn’t.

  35. Most of that snow looks like its coming from the northern stream energy which looks stronger as well. That run gives the boston area at least a few to several inches of wet snow

  38. Crank up the HYPE meter! The 0z Euro is a DIRECT HIT for SNE. 5 runs in a row now with the phased solution. Benchmark storm, closer to the coast than the 12z run, yet it has trended colder with 850 mb temps below 0C for all of SNE during the duration of the storm! The model dumps 2.5″ of QPF in Boston! If this were all snow, we would be talking two feet of heavy, wet snow. However, it looks like the surface 32F line is west of Boston at least to start the storm, meaning a rain/snow line sets up initially before collapsing to the coast and turning everyone over to heavy snow. Worcester and NE CT look to stay all snow with 12-18″

    This is beginning to look like it might actually happen, though perhaps not quite to the strength the Euro is showing. 0z GFS has trended now to a phased solution but is weaker and further out to sea. Even so, the GFS dumps up to 5 or 6″ of snow across a good portion of SNE!

  39. Here are the frame by frame images of the 0z Euro with the 850mb 0C line and surface temp 32F line superimposed (credit to “NYC Suburbs” on the Accuweather Forum for these!)

    Friday at 12Noon
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188913

    Friday at 3PM
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188914

    Friday at 6PM
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188915

    Friday at 9PM
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188916

    Friday at midnight – getting hammered!
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188917

    Sat at 3AM – still getting hammered
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=188918

    and it’s still going beyond that…. long duration storm!

  40. I just saw a graphic on TWC with the difference in snowfall between the EURO and GFS. The EURO has snowfall 12 plus from CT River Valley east and 6-12 west of CT River Valley. The GFS on the other hand has a 1-3 Pike south. 3-6 north of the pike.
    I don’t buy the EURO but I felt all along we would get something Friday but a much weaker storm.

  41. I have no idea if the Friday event is going to phase or not. 🙂

    I’ll go with persistence during a long term, drier than normal pattern and say that most, if not all of the events are going to underperform in their precip production.

    Perhaps this month of February will end up being like December 2012, an above normal precip month during a dry stretch. Again, though, I’ll go with less production versus what the phased and non-phased solutions are showing.

      1. FWIW, The storm shown on Hadi’s link is what I called for back in November. Big dumping on the south shore. But it will not happen. Go with partly cloudy and windy for Friday.

  43. Still not on board here but that Euro runs sure is sweet to look at.

    Tonights 00z runs will probably be the tell.

  46. It is NATIONAL WEATHERPERSONS DAY!!

    Without looking it up, I remember it is honor of one of the first American weatherman whose name is something like Jeffs or Jeffrey or something close to that. Time for hats, cake and ice cream.

    1. Woot, Woot!!!
      National Weatherperson’s Day is celebrated on February 05, 2013. National Weatherperson’s Day, also known as National Weatherman’s Day, is a holiday observed primarily in the United States. It recognizes individuals in the fields of meteorology, weather forecasting and broadcast meteorology, as well as volunteer storm spotters and observers. It is observed on the birthday of John Jeffries, one of the United States’ first weather observers who took daily measurements from 1774 to 1816.
      World Meteorological Day is March 23rd.

  47. I agree the EURO looks nice but I have seen this so many times where a model is predicting big snow totals out there in the future only to end up being a fish storm or a much weaker storm.

  48. Retrac if the 12 z euro shows the same thing and the 12 z GFS comes closer a lot of people will be all in.

    Joe B is a joker but a very good long range forecaster.

  49. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
    HIGHLIGHTS…

    * COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE FRI…BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
    * HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER OVER THIS WEEKEND
    * ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

    MODELS/CONFIDENCE…

    05/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONGST
    THEIR SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE MORE
    AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE…
    WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO MORE POTENT CYCLOGENESIS LATE FRIDAY INTO
    SATURDAY. THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ALSO BRING THIS LOW PRESSURE
    MUCH CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 05/00Z GFS…AS WELL AS THE
    GEFS…DO NOT PHASE THESE SHORTWAVES AND PRODUCE A WEAKER LOW
    PRESSURE WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

    THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST AS THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
    THIS WINTER THE ECMWF HAS HINTED AT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
    THE PAST COUPLE OF TIMES THIS HAS HAPPENED…THE WEAKER MORE
    SOUTHERN SOLUTION PREVAILED. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER
    THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THIS SIGNAL FOR MULTIPLE CYCLES.

    MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. STILL A LOT OF
    DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK.
    INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

  51. if this storm happens i will be extremely happy if it cancel classes so i have more time to do things

  52. I think Barry Burbank was talking about an in between solution this morning. Can’t quite see the phasing occurring in a “complete way.”

  53. Is there going to be a get-together being planned? I may not post all the time but I do read the blog and I haven’t seen anything re: this ’til today.

      1. Thanks, Retrac. I went back over the last few blogs and finally found it. My bad! 🙂 Right now Feb. 28 looks good for me.

  55. I think will have a better idea tomorrow for late in the week. To me the GFS brings an advisory level event while the EURO bring warning level snow event. Its hard to ignore the EURO which has been so consistent but like I said before I have seen this so many times with a model going bonkers only to have a weak system or a fish storm. I hope the EURO is right here.
    I remember when I was going to college up in MA Todd Gross had a graphic and said the highest potential for a snowstorm in the winter is between February 5-12th.

  57. @BarryWBZ: The Friday storm remains an enigma. Phasing branches of the jet stream could generate a prolific snowfall event but that is not a given yet.

    This was 53 min ago

  59. As I have been saying this is all rain for Boston and Providence possibly starting as snow and changing to rain, it’s early but will c 🙂

  60. Personally I’m going with my gut which I don’t do often and think interior areas could get a big one but inside 495 and inside 128 this will be mostly rain, if you want the snow your gonna have to travel west and north 🙂

    1. Charlie, with a prediction of all rain inside I95, I take it you’re looking at an inside runner. Do you believe phasing will occur, or just a minor event?

      2. The models have consistently showing an easterly component to the wind and that spells rain 20-30 miles in from coast, will c though still early but that’s we’re I’m at with forecast now

        1. What are the chances of the storm producing it’s own cold air when it really gets ramped up, or will the marine influence be so strong this would be unlikely?

  63. Got some nice picturesque snow out my window here in CT. Got about a dusting. I am really hoping the Friday storm delivers some good snows since the biggest snowfall we have had was 6 inches with the storm back on 12/29.

  65. It has the feel right now were going to get something. The question is is it a light snow event or something a little more significant. The EURO to me has gone bonkers.

  66. Charlie if you are buying into the EURO it does not depict mostly rain, but rather a rain to heavy snow very quickly.

    1. Yes it’s close will c but I think in the end it is showing big hints on Boston to Providence rain,, and snow inland but as we know, and the models have been wrong so that’s why we r here to watch and see trends

    1. Thanks Hadi. I can’t believe that one. That would clearly be SOMETHING.

      I do, however, Like very much HOW the GFS seems to be coming on board.

      Need to peek at a few more models and of course anxiously await the 12Z runs.
      😀

  68. Let me ask everyone this….Was the EURO bonkers when it depicted Sandy??? I know we are a few days out but something is brewing and I hope its a biggy!!

    1. Hi TJ.. The EURO was picking up on Sandy 7-8 days before impacting the U.S. The landfall locations kept changing but
      it had the right idea with a turn to the left to impact the U.S. The GFS insisted on a fish storm until a few days prior to Sandy
      making lanfall.
      In Comparison With Debby the GFS was right with this system going to Florida while the EURO kept insisting on a landfall in the western
      Gulf of Mexico. It eventually came around to the GFS.

  69. Here are several frames from the 0Z Canadian.
    90 hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=090

    96 hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&hh=096

    102 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=102

    Retrac, PLEASE forgive me, But Here we go again. DO you see what I see?

    1. Notice the North-South troughing going on in the first 2 panels?
    2. Notice the Distinct Norlun feature in the last panel?

    This is looking more and more like AN EVENT! 😀

  72. I’m actually going to agree with Charlie on this. I feel like even if we get what is currently being depicted on the EURO, Boston will end with little snow. I feel like when we have a rain to snow situation, folks in Boston are often left disappointed watching the rain snow line rarely collapse all the way to the shoreline.

    1. It all depends on how much warmer air gets in initially, the wind direction, and the strength of the low. I could see a very quick transition over to snow in most areas if the low is strong enough to bring down some cold air. We have seen that set up before and it usually ends up good for boston.

  73. I have 2 big concerns. 1. It goes OTS. 2. It comes a little closer and gives the coast rain. But I will stay optimistic and say that this time we are due and looks to get a good hammering from this storm. Bring on 2ft of snow!!

  74. The wind direction for Boston will need to be more NNE. Strict NE wind would concern me…..and ENE, forget it.

    Wait, what am I talking about….I’m still not biting yet!

    Holding out till next 00z

    1. Retrac,

      I “think” 045 Degrees will be the magic cutoff. 050 and it rains. 😀 😀
      030 Much better. Of course dependent on 850mb temps. btw, it “could”
      Rain at Logan and where Hadi and I are in JP it could be snowing. 😀 😀

      1. I’m looking forward to looking at the column temp and wind profiles as we get closer if this actually turns into something. Love looking at nuances.

      1. Nah, He’s skeptical that’s all.

        I didn’t see that as backing off, however, Even though there
        has been extreme consistency, he sees things that don’t
        make sense.

  77. Is the Friday hypothetical storm a thurs night or Friday day thing?
    Trying to figure if I will have a snow day 🙂

  78. Then again! we always have this scenerio which Barry posted this morning on wbz
    … Honestly, despite the Euro’s insistence over the past few days, I would not be surprised to see it back off a bit with much of the development of the storm happening just beyond our latitude and longitude.
    ~Sound familiar 🙂 Been there, done that!

  80. Still too early to trust any of these models…you’ll see some changes on tomorrow’s and Thursdays. As TK always reminds us, a few days out is the best you can hope for.

  81. Pete Bouchard ‏@pbouchardon7

    To my fellow weather tweeps: re Friday storm…think Ghostbusters “don’t cross the streams.” #nophasing

    1. Well no matter what we get, that warm up next week (although not a crazy warm up) will dig away at it. Starting to sound like Charlie…HAHA.

  84. As Joe Lundberg pointed out yesterday the storm will be coming into range on Wed, so still way too much time to be sure of anything.

  85. Doesn’t look like the 12Z nam really phases although it still dumps a good 6″ across the region

  88. Here is text output for KBOS from the EURO, WOW

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z FEB05
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 00Z 05-FEB -3.7 -15.9 1011 40 22 0.00 524 515
    TUE 06Z 05-FEB -11.2 -15.4 1015 69 36 0.00 527 516
    TUE 12Z 05-FEB -7.8 -13.4 1016 56 99 0.00 530 518
    TUE 18Z 05-FEB -2.5 -11.3 1015 50 58 0.00 533 521
    WED 00Z 06-FEB -5.2 -11.3 1014 68 43 0.00 533 522
    WED 06Z 06-FEB -5.8 -11.0 1014 74 42 0.00 533 522
    WED 12Z 06-FEB -6.6 -9.6 1015 84 86 0.00 533 521
    WED 18Z 06-FEB 2.1 -9.9 1015 62 24 0.01 535 523
    THU 00Z 07-FEB -5.2 -10.7 1021 68 40 0.00 541 525
    THU 06Z 07-FEB -8.2 -10.9 1026 64 30 0.00 545 525
    THU 12Z 07-FEB -9.0 -11.4 1031 41 39 0.00 548 525
    THU 18Z 07-FEB -3.3 -10.5 1031 46 70 0.00 551 527
    FRI 00Z 08-FEB -5.4 -10.4 1032 41 92 0.00 553 528
    FRI 06Z 08-FEB -4.0 -10.4 1030 66 82 0.00 552 529
    FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.2 -9.5 1027 73 81 0.00 551 530
    FRI 18Z 08-FEB 1.1 -5.5 1022 81 95 0.04 550 533
    SAT 00Z 09-FEB 0.7 -6.2 1014 93 99 0.48 546 535
    SAT 06Z 09-FEB -1.7 -9.6 1008 89 96 1.05 539 532
    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -8.6 -8.1 1014 80 94 0.76 534 523
    SAT 18Z 09-FEB -2.9 -10.3 1018 55 60 0.05 536 522

  89. The output has over 2.5inches QPF for Boston, 850 temps below freezing throughout the storm. 2 M has below freezing except for a small time period from 18Z Friday to 00Z Sat. Most precip from the EURO falls as snow.

    1. Can’t wait to see what 12Z Euro has to say.

      How many consecutive runs is this? I took a look at the instant maps.
      I see that it is five (5) consecutive runs!! And very consistent at that, with
      the track not varying by more than 100 miles or so on ALL of the runs.

      That is some mean consistency. What do you all make of that?
      Can’t just flush it down the toilet. It HAS to mean something, no?

      😀 😀 😀

  90. Clearly JR is not buying into any model, direct quote from his morning blog.

    The final of the 3 stooges storms will be able to foul up the roads on Friday. It’s not a blockbuster (where have they gone?!?!) but plan on snow arriving just after the morning commute on Friday and lasting into Friday Night. I think many towns will pick up 2″ of snow by late Friday evening.

  91. even if you go by the GFS and NAM they still both show potential for 6 inches so who knows what the heck he is talking about. Again he could be correct but how dull is he.

    JMA you out there? Love your input

  92. Tweet from Tim Kelley

    @SurfSkiWxMan: finally some solid HIGH Barometer cold in New England Thursday/Friday.. a missing ingredient last 5 weeks

      1. That may be true right now john, but if theres a good cold high up there, if the storm is strong enough, it will draw the cold air down.

  93. What’s up with the 12Z NAM.

    Here is the snowfall Map through 84 hours with Precipitation STILL on going:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    But this is NOT being produced by a coastal storm.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Not sure what this is depicting? A large scale Ocean effect event?
    Northern Stream energy Igniting the precip? Troughiness connecting
    nortern Stream with Southern Stream? Some sort of convergence going on.

    Here is the 500MB chart????

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif

    Any thoughts?

  98. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    Confidence increasing on sizeable storm Friday/Friday night, significant snow amounts possible…stay tuned!

  99. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Here we go…let the hype begin. Sizable snowstorm looking more likely Friday into Friday night.

  102. You know you are a weather geek when you heart starts to beat a little fast when you see there already almost 200 responses on a farily new post. C’mon Snow Gods…lay one on us!!!

  104. Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** ALERT ** ALERT *8 GFS TURNS 180 DEGREES .. SHOWS MASSIVE SNOWSTORM FOR NEW ENGLAND … !! WOOF

    as I have said many times … if the GFS is taking the east coast threat die east… showing ti flat with No development a AND … AND it is past 84 hrs … BUT the EURO hammers you and / or or shows a NOREASTER…

    always GO with the EURO.

  108. I dont wanna get excited bc history tells me not to, and i dont wanna get excited and go all in just to get let down in the end, so i will cautiously dip my toe in the hype for now!

  109. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    More models jumping on the Euro bandwagon suggests that the potential of an important snowstorm Friday is ramping up! Not guaranteed yet.

    1. that little bit of blocking is making me feel better about no OTS. You might want to head out there with your fan just in case however.

        1. That really stinks out there if you really love snow. Did my undergrad in Springfield and I would usually drive back to Worcester when a good storm was coming because of it.

  113. Wow! Unreal if it happens. I will feel much better after the 12z Euro, but it sure is nice to finally have some consensus for a snowstorm. The only consensus we seem to ever have is for rainmakers.

  115. Its going to snow this is the first time this year that i will have to plow. and look forward to doing it. Its going to snow!!!!

  116. Look at that high 1032 and just perfect for us, any further south and its shunted, any further north and the cold air does not bleed in.

    1. I’m afraid I’ll jinx the damn thing so I’ll wait. In fact, I should start taunting it right Vicki! 🙂

  118. Now we just need some consistency over the next 24 hours. Still early in the game and as we know things can change.

  119. Nice on the 12z GFS. Hope the surface winds along the immediate coastline dont get too strong !! 41F on the ocean temp ? The only other deep, low pressure area this winter (late Dec ?), with its strong accompanying surface winds drove the boundary layer issues further inland than anticipated. Remember ???????

  121. There will be a special on the Blizzard of ’78 with Harvey tonight on Chronicle on Ch. 5 at 7:30. I have seen many of these specials over the years but this particular one looks more interesting than the others…we will see. 😀

    1. I think the reason why 78 was such a big deal was 1st they had half the equipment and didn’t predict it, never happen like that again

  124. There are beginning to see hints of a snow event fri but I’m not on board yet, been doing this for to long, I’m still think the models will come around to a coastal plain rain situation, we shall see

  127. If anybody has a twitter account and wants to follow me and I’ll follow them, my twitter is @charlesCrpcrp

  133. Hoping it dies down…can’t afford to miss any more work after everyone being sick last week. If this was a weeekend storm…

  134. Regarding the potential for a rain/snow line to set up, check my post from 2:34 am above. I posted the euro weather underground maps at 3 hour increments throughout the storm with 850mb 0c line and surface 32F line overlaid. ( this post was in moderation for awhile and just recently was approved). It appears that the surface temps may not support snow initially from Boston southward, but as the storm intensifies, the heavy snow line collapses to the coast…

  138. Let’s step back from the models for a sec…as TK points out, they aren’t worth too much this far out. This morning it was undecided, now it’s huge…tomorrow it might be nothing again,. Rather, what are the higher level trends going on here?

    1. The trend I see is for a better chance of phasing. TV mets are saying same thing — talking a little more about when the phasing will occur.

  139. 12z GFS has 1.21 qpf of snow for boston with .294 added in of sleet.

    Worcester is at 1.135″ of all snow – no mixing.

    Where’s A-Rod?

      1. Not sure yet but from the snow plots, looks like maybe 12 or 15 to 1 inland and lower on coast. Nice and cold through entire column inland and cold for Boston too except for that little bit of sleet showing up.

        Looooongggggg way to go.

  141. I like the trends but still not quite on board yet. Will see what the EURO has to say.
    When winter storm watches are posted then I get excited about a storm.

    2. Models usually change their tune back and forth but what is interesting is the consistency of the Euro.

  142. JR on Channel 5 at noon could not resist blurting totals; started talking about 5-7″ but didn’t say where; he really did not want to give snowfall amounts but couldn’t help himself, and finally just muffled his last few words; I had to chuckle.

    1. 5-7? why bother saying anything? does 5-7 keep it safe for 1-3 and 6-12? Lame. Don’t say anything then.

      Am I just being a pain in the *SS?

  150. Pressure was 984mb in roughly the same location on the 0z run – now it is at 976 mb. Looks like it is getting even stronger!

    1. Is that in INCHES? 3.38 or .338? if so,. That is truly Amazing!
      It is REALLY throwing the precip back in as it is a fair distance off shore. 😀

  156. OS here is the text output for KBOS

    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 12Z 05-FEB -8.3 -13.4 1015 57 100 0.00 530 518
    TUE 18Z 05-FEB -2.9 -12.1 1016 50 36 0.00 532 520
    WED 00Z 06-FEB -5.8 -10.8 1015 70 51 0.00 533 522
    WED 06Z 06-FEB -4.1 -9.6 1014 70 60 0.00 532 522
    WED 12Z 06-FEB -5.8 -9.1 1014 82 82 0.00 533 521
    WED 18Z 06-FEB 1.8 -10.2 1015 62 20 0.00 535 523
    THU 00Z 07-FEB -5.3 -10.7 1020 67 37 0.00 540 524
    THU 06Z 07-FEB -8.5 -11.6 1026 60 27 0.00 544 524
    THU 12Z 07-FEB -9.5 -12.2 1030 40 43 0.00 547 524
    THU 18Z 07-FEB -3.6 -11.2 1031 42 95 0.00 550 525
    FRI 00Z 08-FEB -5.7 -10.7 1032 39 93 0.00 552 528
    FRI 06Z 08-FEB -4.5 -11.3 1030 69 90 0.00 552 529
    FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.0 -8.8 1026 72 64 0.00 551 530
    FRI 18Z 08-FEB 1.1 -4.7 1019 87 92 0.08 549 534
    SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -4.7 1010 98 98 0.74 545 537
    SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.3 -9.4 1001 89 96 1.34 534 533
    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -8.2 -10.3 1007 80 98 1.02 529 524
    SAT 18Z 09-FEB -6.5 -10.8 1013 70 98 0.28 531 522
    SUN 00Z 10-FEB -9.8 -12.2 1019 64 8 0.03 534 519

    1. Hadi,

      Many thanks. That’s truly incredible!!! Almost UNBELIEVABLE.
      In fact it must not be true. How could it be? 😀

  157. Deep breath everyone, this is all way to good to be true !

    Could we really be getting clobbered after nearly 2 years of disappointment in an overall dry pattern ?

    So, this is for Friday, I’ll need to see these models thinking this on Thursday afternoon and evening. Until then, I’m keeping my expectations low.

  160. By the way, Marshfield has been flurrying the last several hours, at a pace that could have been counted. Its never completely stopped and its never approached light snow or snow shower pace. Just about 20 flurries falling at any one given time. Talk about literally being on the edge of precip.

  162. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    Chance of big snowstorm for much of Southern New England Fri. into Sat. is increasing..more on NewsCenter 5 from 5-6:30

  163. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Ladies & gentleman: the recipe 4 a blizzard is in the making! Caveat: We r still 72 hours away from the impending event. Not a given yet!

  164. Wxrisk.com
    ‎**** ALERT *** ALERT ** HISTORIC SNOWSTORM LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR ALL OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND…

    12Z EURO Shows SEVERE NOREASTER …12 TO 30″ OF SNOW for all of New England ..except for for far N VT NH and Maine

    NESIS CATEGORY 5 … RSI CATEGORY 5 EVENT

  166. Charlie mentioned Barry. Here are his 2 latest tweets!!!!!

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Fascinating coincidence: 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78 and the potential Blizzard of 2013… NOT etched in stone YET!

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Ladies & gentleman: the recipe 4 a blizzard is in the making! Caveat: We r still 72 hours away from the impending event. Not a given yet!

    😀

  167. Oh boy, well, back to work……….. I’m not getting reeled in yet. Disappointment potential off the charts. I’d rather expect low and get clobbered.

  168. Latest BB tweet 2 minutes ago:

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Preliminary projections: IF the latest guidance VERIFIES, we’re looking at 1-2 feet of wind-whipped snow later Friday and Friday night!

    1. Here once again is my love/hate relationship with big storms…On one hand I love a big storm…the excitement, etc. On the other hand I hate the wind and heavy wet snow due to my radio hobby. Lost too many FM antennas and big wire loop antennas (altho my latest has been up for 3 years now). Oh well I’m starting to get pumped either way.

    1. AND….TK has already said he has changed his tune as well. Buckle up….it is about to get crazy on WHW!!!

  176. Who knows OS, just seems impossible to get that QPF but I will run around naked in the driveway if it verifies 🙂

  177. Hype, hype,hype. Being Tuesday its early. Tk said don’t get caught sucked into all those runs. I’m curious to see his latest thinking. We sure are die for a big one, but I would be more interested on Thursdays run. Also the temperature for Friday is 38. Another weekend storm would be incredibly good money wise. I’m holding out till we get closer to the event. It would be good to get it, but just not on board yet.

      1. My Gut says we “MAY” end up getting MORE than we ever wanted! This could be really serious. A real Safety threat.
        A very very Dangerous situation. I wanted SNOW, but this
        just may be going too far.

  178. That is a strong low pressure center. IF that were to verify and again big IF we would be looking at a level 3 snow event (10-20 inches). Were still a couple days away from the event but I think its safe to say we see something here in SNE.

    2. JJ The blizzard of 78 was the WORST storm I have witnessed in my entire life.
      It was brutal. My Wife was 7 months pregnant with our son.

      I have a few photos that I will try to post tomorrow on the anniversary.

      Although everything was shut down, I went to work on the “T”. I was walking on top of cars, the snow, drifts and snow banks were so high.

      I’d rather not see that again. A nice routine 1 footer would suffice. 😀

  181. If this even comes close to Verifying I am ready to ANOINT the Euro as KING
    forever!!!!! This will be just like it nailing the intensity and path of Sandy.

    1. It always get bigger. Just look in life when we say things can’t possibly get
      worse. What happens? It gets worse. So certainly this system “could” get bigger still. Nothing says it can’t. Not that it will, but it could. 😀

    1. LOL, me either Longshot. They will all try and put their own little twist on it. I just told everyone at work a big storm is coming. They said they hadnt heard anything on the news. I said, tonight u will!

    1. Watch out what you say. It truly may end up memorable, but not necessarily
      they way you want. This could be way more than a snowstorm. It
      could end up being Sandy North.

      I’m getting very worried now.

      1. The winds are gonna ramp up big time, just looked at the winds on wundermap…this thing looks like a hurricane, 60+Kt winds along the coast

  185. Old Salty I love snow but I have said this before I would never want to see a crippling snowstorm. I was not alive for the blizzard of 78 but from hearing the stories and seeing the pictures I hope there never a storm of that magnitude again.

  186. Question for all, I know a blizzard is measured by visibility and sustained wind, but is there any snowfall number that has to be met also?
    Could you have snow on the ground that blows arou d enough to limit visibility and have blizzard conditions without it actually snowing??

    1. Snowstorm with winds blowing at a minimum speed of 35 miles per hour and visibility of less than one-quarter mile for three hours or more. Actually not measured by snowfall amounts.

  187. Old salty why would this be sandy north? Its just snow we are getting and winds? But are the winds/wavesgoing to br really strng that makes it really dangerous? And someone please post the qpf for the euro when it.comez! God i cant pay attention in my exploring the universe class due to this potential storm lol

    1. I say Sandy North because of the potential severity of this storm.
      60 MPH winds along the coast means coastal flooding with or without
      astronomical high tides. Heavy blowing and drifting snow, Paralyzing traffic.

      The 12Z Euro qpf for this storm is projected to be 3.38 inches for Boston.

      That My friend, equates to a ***t load of snow! 😀 😀

  188. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    In the world of weather, we call it “weather porn” if it excites the meteorologist, whether it’s going to verify or not..

  189. I was 7 yrs old during the blizzard of 78. We lived on the north shore about a mile from the beach. We evacuated family from their beachfront home. They stayed with us for about a week. The snowbanks were taller than we were. We had no power for days. There was a driving ban and we had to walk everywhere, including the market pulling sleds behind us. The market shelves were bare. Snowdrifts were 10-15 high in some places. Most of the iron railings at Lynn Beach along the seawall were washed away by the storm surf as well as an entire playground. The only good thing about that storm is that it was spent with family and that we survived it. Many people did not. Once was enough. I dont love or like snow enough to want to relive such a memory.

  190. Granted, the blizzard of 78 was historic, but I think if the same storm happened today, it wouldnt be talked about like it is. We are far more prepared.

      2. There was a storm that dumped a wee bit more snow, but
        PALED in comparison with the blizzard of 78.

        1. Not sure I get it…if 2005 dumped MORE snow thew 1978, how does it pale? I did verify that btw…2005 was bigger.

          1. It paled because it didn’t have the same impact.
            Winds were nothing compared to blizzard.

            It was also worse with the blizzard because a week or so earlier we received 22 inches and a week before that 7 inches of snow and heavy sleet, so
            there was NO PLACE to put it all.

    2. Ace, trust me, in the case of a storm like that, I don’t care how prepared
      you are, it’s not going to matter. Believe me the 78 storm was WELL advertised.
      People had plenty of time to prepare. Didn’t matter.

      1. I agree. We WERE well prepared. We were able to evacuate relatives, get supplies, and make preparations. The coast was devastated by the blizzard and the high tides.

    2. Truly Amazing!!!

      Now this shows Boston with 18-24 inches with a qpf of 3.38 inches.

      Now that would be some pretty heavy stuff for sure. at a mere 10:1 that would be 33 inches.

      24 inches would be a 7:1 ratio. 18 inches would be 5.3:1 ratio.

      So what’s up? A wetter snow? A denser snow?

    4. Still think it’s waaaay too early to be putting out anything. I wonder sometimes if these guys are on the supermarket payrolls. 🙂

  193. That conservative forecaster side of me says hold back a bit, and I will do that, sticking to my usual time frames before getting too confident about scenarios and numbers and all, but even though I dislike the term “gut feeling”, it is screaming at me that we’re “in trouble” which is good or bad depending on your perspective about major winter storms.

    1. TK, WHEN you say something like that, I take it very seriously.

      You are the traditional conservative Meteorologist, never alarming, never
      hyping, always a straight shooter. And we like that, believe me.

      But when your gut says we may be in trouble, WATCH OUT FOLKS!!!!

  195. From Matt Noyes, moments ago:

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN
    Wind Chill Watch issued for late Wed. Night thru Thu AM for Northern Maine – chills as low as -47° expected!

    Hmm That’s the HIGH that will be feeding this storm???

  196. Maybe the models decided to give all of our mets some eye candy since it is National Weatherperson’s Day. Tomorrow the storm will go poof. 🙂

    2. HAHA. I would guess what alisonarod would say…the models will align in the middle…maybe a foot or so in Boston.

    1. They just “may”.

      you know the 18Z NAM is TOTALLY and completely different than
      the other models. 😀

    1. I used to love watching him on TWC. His fascination with winter storms was written all over his face when forecasting and you could really tell he was humble and curious and all that if it makes sense.

      1. For someone very well known, if he has an ego he sure keeps it in check. Very friendly and down to earth person.

  200. I do not want to see a snowstorm like the Blizzard of ’78. We were living in Framingham at the time and my husband had to drive home from work in Quincy. He made it home just in time before Rte. 128 got bad. I will be happy with several inches of fluffy snow with a little wind. Depending on temps., etc., a fluffy snow might not be the case on Fri., if we get anything. I have no gut feeling on the potential for a storm on Fri. except that we will get something – maybe a few inches or so.

  201. I think it better to put our complacency aside and take this seriously before completely dismissing it. I’m not panicking, nor do I plan to. However, this bears watching.

  204. This is the post I made on my Woods Hill Weather Facebook Page just now:

    Most of you know that I am a conservative weather forecaster. I don’t like to jump too quickly on things, especially potential big weather events. I’d rather be more correct closer to the event than having to change my tune several times after putting out information too soon. As of yesterday I was not even close to convinced that we’d have a big storm potential at the end of this week. A reliable forecast model had me keeping an eye out though. And even though I am not ready to jump fully into this 3-days-before-the-event-starts hype thing, what I will say is that there is enough agreement in guidance I look at on a regular basis to have me very concerned about the potential for a major winter storm strating sometime on Friday and lasting into the early part of the weekend. My blog will be updated early this evening with more on this and an updated forecast for southeastern New England. The older forecast is still there but don’t pay much attention to it. Hope to have the update in by 6PM!

    _______________________

    I’m going out to help my mom with some shopping at 4PM (agenda switched a bit) and then I’ll basically be around after that through the evening except for a short errand around 7:30PM. I’m very excited to see how things look by the end of tonight.

  207. Too much hype about this possible storm, I’m going with OTS with a glancing blow on the Cape and Islands. JMHO of course!

    2. It is. I mean three days out. From what I’m hearing from local mets this early is going to send people in a panic. We have talked about this here before and did not agree with that style.

  209. Well lets just say if this storm goes OTS, WHW isn’t going to be a pleasant place for a few weeks…

  212. I havent looked yet, but with all these operational runs of the EURO showing this storm, do its ensembles agree?

  213. I have been on board with some region wide snow for Friday, since Sunday, but I am not on board with 3+ which is what the 12z OP ECMWF want to dump on portions of SNE. It does somethings that tells me it is a little confused. A major East coast storm with a digging west coast trough and ridging into the upper midwest, does not make for a reasonable teleconnection with the stormy scenario of phasing with rapid deepening along the NE US coast at the same time. I can not remember when I have seen that teleconnection result in a major northeast US storm. That gives me pause. Biggest advice don’t jump on every 6z and 18z model run. This is too much information time. We will here about JMA/SREF/UK/GGEM/RPM/WXCMC/ and all sorts of other experimental data. Look at the 2 main runs of the GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ENS/NAM/SREF and then compare it to what is actually going on in the climate at the current time. From there I am going to try to make a sensible forecast. A blended approach is where I am headed right now with plenty of time to refine.

    2. Excellent post from you as always. Tk warned of this on Sunday saying not to get caught up on every single model run. Especially three days out. Could this pan out, well sure, but just don’t get to pumped just yet. Nobody Will have any kind of handle on this till maybe late Thursday. Let’s see how this potential pans out.

  214. Jumping out of my lurking box to say hello everyone! Things are certainly looking interesting, and we have much time and more models and data to peruse before Friday. I was a freshman at Brookline High for ’78, and remember it well. We lived a block from route 9, just by the reservoir (or ‘ressy’ as we called it). I remember days later walking down to route 9, and seeing people skiing down the road. The traffic lights were working, and I remember being surprised to hear them make noise when the lights changed. Never heard that before, but skis don’t make much noise. School opened back up in about three weeks, but the bastards mailed us homework in the interim, lol. The Monday that it started they still didn’t know what was coming, and school was open. But soon they caught on, and we were sent home early. The snow was just starting as I was walking home (kids did that in those days..). Back then we didn’t really have more than a few days notice for any kind of weather specifics. We had calculators, not computers. Our school had one computer, it read holes punched into long rolls of paper, and was the size of a refrigerator. The same storm today would find us all far more prepared. Most of the deaths were of people either out to sea, or driving home during the thing.

    Going to be an interesting week.

    1. Cool story! My mom knew that we would be home from school for a bit of time, so we made a trip to the toy store. Score! New toys to keep us busy.

  215. Update from NWS Upton, NY:

    BY THURSDAY NIGHT…INGREDIENTS START COMING TOGETHER FOR A BUSY END
    TO THE WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE PROPAGATING TO THE
    EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES…WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES
    THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF COMING
    CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION…BY SHOWING A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM
    WAVE THAT ENHANCES PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON FRIDAY.
    CONSIDERING A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO ENHANCED THE PHASING
    OVER PREVIOUS RUNS…AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
    OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS…IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG
    SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
    FRIDAY NIGHT. A MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
    SOLUTIONS MOVE THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
    THE 40/70 BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE…CONFIDENCE IS
    INCREASING IN THE AREA REALIZING HEAVIER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME
    PERIOD. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY. NONETHELESS…HIGH
    UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT.

  216. Thanks JMA,

    As I stated above I think a more realistic qpf figure is around 2-2.5 vs 3.5. Either way it will be an interesting 48 hours.

  217. One thing I remember from the Blizzard of ’78 was the sky was very pink in the early morning. I was working at Natick Labs at the time and I remember driving into work and noticing how pink the sky was. I think they let us out early – well before it got bad.

  218. NWS Tauton has posted a HWO for the potential of a foot or more of snow on Friday.

    Interesting that they have done that so far in advance…

    2. I think It’s wrong. For us to throw out numbers is one thing. It’s extreamly ludicrous for forecasters to start talking the way they are this early in the game. If it verified that would be great for them, if not they look like idiots. As a professional met how you talk to the public is key. What they should say now is hey we could get a big storm Friday and as we get closer we will have a better handle on it. Some things I heard today. History storm, biggest blizzard ever and devastating results. That’s not right, and not professional three days out.

      1. I didnt see that John. I just see facts. As a listener and a resident is be ticked if they saw something and didnt give us honest details. We knew of many of the big storms in the past three days before and it gave time to prepare without panic

  219. I just read on the Accuweather forum that the Euro Ensembles keep the heaviest precip off shore and drop significantly less QPF than the operational run shows. Still too early to jump on the bandwagon for a historic storm.

  220. I have not read one met giving a forecast yet John, they have given the results verbatim of the models are spitting out.

  221. 2.5 QPF would put a dent into our precip deficit. Ground looks really bad this year and could do with some snow. Taking a beating now with temps in the teens at night with no snowcover and already bone-dry. But, I don’t know if I will jump on the snowstorm bandwagon just yet. Temps look marginal along the coast, and the wind may be E/NE, and not N/NE. From a personal perspective, I’m concerned about Friday driving in Pennsylvania (from Philadelphia to the Harrisburg area for my father’s funeral service). We shall see …

    1. Glad to see you here. I hope your doing as well as can be expected. I’m not on board either, not yet. 38 is the high for Friday.

    4. Joshua, sorry to hear about your father. Right now it looks like mainly a rain event in Philadelphia transitioning to snow in Harrisburg but it is over by Friday evening. The later in the day, the better driving conditions.

  222. I might be a bit off here but didn’t the Mets of old get things right more often with less information?

  223. Way to early to call this a blizzard or historic snowstorm. I am thinking a light to moderate snowfall when all is set and done.

  224. Gee I’m away for a few hours and the blog lit up. Interesting to say the very least. Ill hope for a significant snow but not another blockbuster. Too much destruction

      1. Awwww. Thats nice. I’ve been off in a corner coughing. Up side is no one will let me in kitchen so I get waited on.

  227. LOL. John, forgive me. I have to laugh at you. You sometimes throw out numbers day in advance of a storm. Sorry bro, but it’s true. This storm if the EURO were to verify could be historical.

  228. JJ, perhaps for western CT but right now this looks like a significant event for most of SNE and especially eastern MA. This thing would really have to diminish and shift farther east/OTS to only end up with a light/moderate event. The NAM doesn’t even show a phased system and still drops 6″+ in MA.

    1. I am always hestitant with a potential snowstorm many thing could change.
      I saw Matt Noyes map that was posted here and shows 6-12 inches for where I am in CT.

  229. Someone mentioned the EURO ensembles which show a further OTS scenario thus much less QPF. It’s alway a red flag when the op doesn’t agree with ensembles. Doesn’t mean the op is wrong just some food for thought.

  230. The EURO has been extremely consistent with this storm except for yesterday’s fun. However, the EURO has come back with a historical storm today. Additionally, the GFS and other models have begun to phase and trend closer to the coast. This is a recipe for disaster. And while we many not see the “perfect storm” of 2-3 feet, a good foot plus and then some is certainly looking more and more likely. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. The NAM should begin to come aboard in the next timeframe. Getting exciting!

  231. I can’t believe it, I think tommorrow if euro still says this it will be time to ramp up, holding pattern as of now

  232. Ok we have John calling for no snow and Charlie calling for snow……..remember the other day I said that would be what it would take for a storm to happen……..I think its in the cards folks 😀

    2. Hold on Vicki. I never said no snow. I said let’s use caution. I never said that. At this time not jumping on board for something big, its to early.

      2. John I’m kidding. I know neither of you said that but you have to admit you are both saying the opposite of normal for you. And just in case its the magic combination, can you both just stay in your current mode.

  233. ANNOUNCEMENT: Harvey will present a special on the Blizzard of ’78 tonight at 7:30 on Chronicle Ch.5!! 🙂

  236. Todd Gutner put up a snow map with 1 foot+ for Boston and 95 corridor; 6-12″ in central and western MA; and less for Cape and islands. In all fairness, he did make mention of the usual set of caveats regarding the storm.

  237. Pete is already comparing the upcoming storm to the Dec. 26-27, 2010 snowstorm by posting a list of amounts that some towns received.

  238. Philip… Thanks for the announcement about ch 5’s blizzard special. I was going to do that in a bit myself. 🙂

    Meat loaf dinner got in the way. 😛

  239. January had 1.08 inches total precip at Logan. December was above normal and its biggest individual storm total was 1.67 inches.

    It looks like the last time a storm accounted for 2+ inches of precip was back on April 22-23, 2012.

    1. Saw that TJ. Like the others he is stressing potential. Very responsible reporting. He has the highest of the three main stations.

  243. Harvey did mention one caveat that the rain/snow line “could” make it up to Boston briefly. It is too bad that ocean is still so darn warm. At least we do have climatology on our side this time compared to that late December “almost” bust.

    Ocean temp = 41F

  244. Hello folks, I really am happy bc there is legitimate reason to be, I don’t usually exaggerate on much, haha well maybe a little here and there but this storm has huge potential and I don’t use that word much, Vicki your right it’s taken me to say a snowstorm is coming and John to say no snow for the snow gods to open 🙂

  245. Feel for the TV mets having to put up snow maps. That sucks! It is being foisted upon them by News Directors and GM’s. Believe me they don’t want to!

    ECMWF ENS is a slightly less robust than its OP run. ENS is “only” 1.5-2.5 instead of 2.5-3.5.

      1. If this was the Midwest or the Rockies posting snow amounts would be prudent since a storm in those locals would be a lock but being on the east coast, a gazillion things could go wrong with the forecast this far out…rain, OTS, minor snows, etc.

  246. Put me down for 4 to 8 region wide. Not based on models, but pure instinct.

    With the craziness of the numbers being thrown around already on TV, 4-8 practically sounds like a miss. This during a winter that so far has produced a grand total of 8 inches of snow. Combine this with a several month period of drier than normal conditions and I’m going conservative.

  247. I’ve heard 3 diff TV met scenarios: Channel 4 with a foot+; Channel 5 mentioned possible rain in the mix, and Channel 7 isn’t sold entirely and (Pete B) said OTS still possible. In short way too early for any certainty.

    1. The average of their scenarios was pretty much the same though except Harvey had totals about 50% higher. All responsibly stated in his own way that it is early and can change

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