The Calm Before, Or Finding “Nemo”

853 Comments

6:21PM

Might as well say it right away: The “Nemo” thing is just a joke about The Weather Channel’s name for the storm upcoming. I’ll refrain from comment on this practice for now. Also, sometime in the next 24 hours I will write a special blog about the 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978, which is today/tomorrow (February 6-7).

With still over a day to go before this major event arrives, don’t lose sight of the fact there could still be some revisions to the forecast about to be posted. That said, here is my best guess for how the major winter storm, which has now prompted a blizzard watch for much of the I-95 corridor and a winter storm watch for the remainder of southeastern New England into Saturday, will play out. And then we will look beyond that into next week.

The makings of this winter storm are coming from 2 places, a disturbance in the northern jet stream moving through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes then diving southeastward, meeting up with a developing storm in the southern branch of the jet stream over the southeastern USA. Think of the northern stream system as a source of energy and the southern stream system as a source of moisture. And then the 2 systems get together along the East Coast, a process called phasing (when the 2 jet streams link up).  This results in a new storm that often intensifies rapidly, and then moves east or north, either out to sea or up the coast. In this case, pretty much all signs point to the intensifying storm moving northeastward, passing near latitude 40N and longitude 70W, which is southeast of Cape Cod. 40/70 is viewed as “the benchmark” by meteorologists when trying to forecast significant  winter storms. This track, and the size of the storm, means that a major impact will take place, including heavy snow, big snow amounts, and high winds. But there are some factors which will come into play to determine final snow amounts. They include:

* Ocean water temperatures which are running a few degrees above normal may prompt some mixing along the immediate coastline and especially over Cape Cod and the Islands.

* Final storm track. Any shifting one way or another even by 10 to 20 miles can impact amounts. I don’t expect this to change too much.

* Banding. With many storms that are deepening as they pass, often bands of very heavy snow will set up especially north and west of the center. In between these can be lighter areas. This can result in a fairly wide variability over a relatively short distance. This will be covered by a large range of snowfall in the forecast.

* Dry air wrapping into the circulation. When this happens, snow can become much lighter or even stop in an area it was expected to be heavy. I don’t expect this to become a major factor at this time either but will watch it.

* Storm speed. If this storm was moving right along, even though its impact is major, amounts would be a little less. However this storm may slow or even appear to stall as it does a tiny loop just east of New England (as the low pressure organizes itself between different levels of the atmosphere). Any slowing of the storm will prolong the snowfall and therefore increase the amounts. This will be factored into the forecast amounts.

Here is the time line and snow amounts…

Start time: Friday morning, from west to east but light snow for several hours. There may be a couple ocean-effect snow bands that move in from east to west across eastern MA and NH. These would be responsible for some minor accumulations but could cause slippery going on untreated surfaces.

When does it get serious? Timing can always shift a little, but I expect the steadiest moderate to eventually heavy snow to begin any time from 2PM on. If there is much of a Friday afternoon commute, conditions will be deteriorating rapidly.

Peak: The heaviest snow and strongest winds are likely from 10PM Friday through 6AM Saturday, give or take a couple hours depending on location.

End time for snow: Lower confidence on this, but the steadiest snow should be done by the middle of Saturday afternoon and other than some lingering snow showers near Cape Cod the entire event should be a done deal by about sunset or early evening Saturday.

Snow amounts: POTENTIAL snowfall, and this will be updated based on details as they change. 12 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts, except 6-12 inches in far southeastern MA especially the Cape Cod region (pending the mixing situation), and 3-6 inches Nantucket where it may mix much longer.

Forecast details for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 22-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow developing in the morning, growing steadier/heavier afternoon. Mixed snow/rain possible along the South Shore & South Coast of MA/RI including Cape Cod & the Islands. Highs 25-30 except 30-35 coastal areas. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NE with higher gusts around 30 MPH or higher by the end of the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Winter storm with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow, still some mixing possible far southeastern areas especially early. Heavy snow accumulations (see above). Lows 15-20 except 20-25 by morning in far southeastern areas. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH. Blizzard conditions possible especially from Providence to Boston and westward.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow, still moderate to heavy at times through midday then diminishing and tapering off from west to east during the afternoon. Additional significant accumulation (see above). Blowing and drifting snow. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 9. High 33.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/sleet/snow showers. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 31. High 40.

853 thoughts on “The Calm Before, Or Finding “Nemo””

  1. TK, thank you. Things I have heard recently. 1) More flood warnings 2) Some TV mets pointing to the possibility of isolated 30″ amounts 3) mixing more of an issue with Pete B saying mixing could reach So Shore and 4) many like you talking to “stalling.”

    As a finals point 1 TV met said we could see 1-2″ and possibly 3″ /hour and another said we could top out at 4″/hour. And finally starting times are all over the place from pre-dawn to 11 am.

    1. I REALLY want to see what the 0Z NAM does.
      That 18Z run was off it’s rocker. In a different way, so was the 12Z run.

      I would expect the 0Z run to be somewhere in between the 12Z and 18Z.

      We shall see.

      The SREF ensembles surely want to NAIL us big time.

  4. For those who even cared to follow my TV met caveats, Pete gave only one — mixing issue where he actually said it could reach up to Boston, BUT he also said it was not going to effect his forecasted totals.

    1. IF and I say IF it ever mixes in Boston, it will be at the Far Eastern End of
      the Runway sticking farthest into the water. Otherwise NO WAY.

      1. Draw a line from Winthrop across Logan Airport…include the outer islands and the northern section of Hull….that’s it LOL

        2. Snow amounts will range from at least 12 to possibly up to an isolated 36 inches of snow. The METS will not call for 1-3 feet of snow but it’s quite possible as TK stated due some areas getting hammered with heavy bands while others are stuck in the prolonged moderated bands. Clearly no one other than CC and the islands receive less than a foot and someone is going to see close to 3 ft therefore 1-3 ft is a true estimate. The METS are taking an average and therefore 12-20 sounds IMHO. 16-24+ would be more like it IMHO very similar to what Pete maps out.

  7. Here ya go, John:

    john says:
    February 6, 2013 at 6:41 PM
    Well looking like we have a big coming, to much consistency with the computer models to ignore. I’m on board now. Not going to put a number out because I just don’t know. One thing that concerns Me is the new moon. One thing that comes to my mind is the perfect storm, aka the no name storm. That was the blizzard of 78 without the snow, I saw major destruction in Marshfield and scituate. There was as much destruction from that storm just like 78. Am I saying this will happen not the moon worries me. I have been feeling under the weather since Friday as I have a pain on the right side of my neck that at times is down the center of my neck and back. Went to the doctors yesterday and she said I probably have a strain. She wasn’t concerned as its only been since Friday. I stayed home today to rest. I’m nervous for the storm with shoveling and.. running equipment. Arod any feedback I would welcome.. would doing these activities help or possibly aggarate oit.

      1. John you sadly may not be far off if at all for tides in your area. The tide is highest astronomical tide of the month and scituate was one area BZ mentioned for problems.

  8. John. To answer your question it sounds like a myofascial strain like your physician stated. It can take 2-4 weeks to resolve with proper rest, ice, and anti-inflammatory medications. If after 2 weeks you are NO better, then physical therapy is the standard of care at that time. We tend to treat conservatively to start. Clearly surgery is NOT in the cards and this will resolve. Shoveling, snow plowing, powering up equipment is na absolute no go. Chances are you will not use proper body mechanics leading to an aggrevation of the original injury and delayed healing response time. My advice to you is avoid exertional activities as necessary and ask for a lot of help. Good luck!

    1. You? Hmmmm I’ve never seen you be annoying. I didnt see what you said however but you are always respectful

      1. i was talking about the snow storm. been posting weather models and everything. and she posted under it your being annoying 😉

  13. John let me know if you need help clearing the snow. I’m one town over and can bring the snow thrower.

      1. Oh John, you misinterpret my sarcasm. I would be more than willing to give you hand in your time of recovery. For a small fee of course! 🙂

        1. Well coastal, that’s a very nice gesture. And thank you. If I’m in a jam I’ll let you know, I appreciate it. Believe it or not I don’t have a snow blower. Usually when I return home from a storm my neighbor has been kind to do it.

  14. I hope the heavies snow bands sets up in the north shore. Hitting my town of reading! I would love to see thundersnow!

  18. TWC has lower amounts for right at boston and south toward providence of 6-12. Im chalking that up to them just not understanding the region. They are too general.

    1. I think mixing and temperature issues all day Friday will lower amounts along the coast, and that includes Boston. Providence gets more than Boston out of this storm. Still Boston will get at least a foot in my estimation, while Providence gets closer to 18. Some isolated spots will get 24. I do think the storm will exit faster than the models suggest. I don’t think any accumulating snow will fall after Saturday 9am.

      One thing for sure is that I’m staying in Pennsylvania until late Saturday. The storm does not appear to be doing as much damage there, although Philadelphia could still get 6 inches after a prolonged period of rain/mix.

      1. The predictions/worries of rain mixing in with this storm reminds me of the April Fools storm of 97. I was working downtown in the North End at the time and remember that during the daylight hours we had winds of the water and slushy mix but once night kicked the winds veered more to the north and everything kicked back to snow…totals iirc were well over 20 inches in Boston and even just north and south of the city along the coast. Got a feeling that this will be the same.

        1. Good point and possibly a good analogy. April 1, 1997 remains my favorite storm, in part because it produced stupendous rates of snow per hour overnight. Perhaps this one does, too, but I have my doubts.

          1. What was so remarkable to me about that storm was that so much snow was able to accumulate. The ground had been so warm in the days leading up to that, plus it rained a lot before changing to snow

    2. they are more for the great lakes,plains,gulf and pacific northwest. half the time they forget to mention us up here and down in the pacific sw but the pacific sw is usually boring anyway 😛

  23. Waiting for those 0z runs to come out. The ingredients are there for a major snow event the question is does everything come together to allow that to happen.

  25. I think the B’s look great tonight! Nobody scored yet is all.

    2-1 B’s is my prediction.

    1. Yet was the key word. Hey tk do you think mixing will be an issue here in Plymouth county. I’m in the western part of Pembroke.

      2. maybe for the southern half.. but for your area out of 100% i would say less than 30% chance that you see a mix or change over.

        1. Thanks guys. Thinking the same. I am also thinking may be that mix for Boston to start. Than night time all hell breaks out.

    2. Down 1-0 and had 4 shots on goal for the entire 1st period. And I think they must have given Montreal 4 power plays.

    4. I am not a hockey fan but what I can tell its most popular in Canada, when I went to Montreal there 1st sport is hockey for sure, it’s hockey 12 months a yr but when I’ve lived in other parts of country it was seriously a 5 th sport behind NASCAR, I think I read in a magazine since hockey is back that it’s still gonna be a mess down the road bc half of the cities that have the NHL there the 5th sport behind NASCAR, tk is this true hockey still hasnt fixed there priblems,,what’s funny is I was always very good at hockey as a kid but really never liked it, as u all know football runs in my blood and family 🙂 enjoy the game

  30. Ought OH. I think that the 0Z NAM Is having a breakdown!! I’m in total
    fear of the results. REALLY CRANKING so far. 45 hours. 😀

  31. From New England Weather Works:

    New England Weather Works
    From the Staff at New England Weather Works

    To all New England Residents, we urge you to please prepare for what we believe will be a storm for you all to remember, your about to be impacted by what we believe will be the worst Coastal storm to hit New England since the Blizzard of 78. This Storm will be EPIC, and will act more like a winter Hurricane.

  42. im waiting for my cat to give me the signal until then i aint putting nothing down for accumulation predictions 😀

  46. TK, your Bruins forecast looking very good. Their 3rd period play much better. Absence of Marchand & Thornton hurts though. Bruins about to be short handed again.

  51. Eastern parts of SNE get crushed on that run of the NAM. About 12-15 inches where I am in western CT which is still a good dump of snow. Of course with the NAM this probably overdone and about 2 3 maybe inches needed to be taken off.

    1. NAM. Classic convective feedback which results in overdone precip. It seems to be a problem with rapidly deepening storms.

  54. EPIC?? Ahh…I can tell if it says 5inch or 10inchs of liquid precip. Thats freaking insane I’ll try to post snow map.

    1. I’m almost modeled out on this. 🙂 I’m looking forward to Friday, watching what happens and reporting here about what is happening in Marshfield.

    1. I’d be able to jump off the ridge of my house without a scratch with that snow depth.

      Even if its half wrong, it’s killer

        1. Great, no power and the power companies may not be able to get to down lines to fix them. 🙂 Vicki, your dream scenario 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. During a decent 9:30 pm Friday night tide and hopefully a more northerly flow for the extreme astronomical tide Saturday morning at 10am.

  58. We know the GFS will come in with less qpf, but this is UnFreaking Believable.

    I advise SAVING images of those snow maps as you will NEVER see that again
    in your lives. 😀

    1. Well, I’ll tell you…….if we get 45-60 inches, then we’ll be able to debate if that means a warmer planet (a debate in and of itself) can produce bigger blockbuster snowstorms.

        1. No, he said that the 30″ number just happened to appear south of Boston on his monitor. he clarified by saying there could be pockets of 30″ almost anywhere.

  66. Kevin Lemanowicz has the storm stalling even longer and still snowing good through late afternoon Saturday…widespread 18-24″ like everyone else.

  68. With all the hype, it feels like the storm begins tomorrow instead of Friday. I actually have to constantly keep reminding myself that I still have one more day to make any final preparations/purchases.

  69. Matt Noyes has 12″ for Boston. I believe he thinks that we are going to have alot more mixing along the coast. Bummer…

    1. Hes really banking on that. Its not so much the mixing, its the wetness of the snow the further south and east u go hes hung up on.

  70. Just now from Mike Wankum

    Mike Wankum ‏@MetMikeWCVB

    Starting to get indications that this snow storm will not shut off quickly and may linger into Saturday evening.

  72. I don’t watch Matt Noyes since I don’t have cable, but from what I have read here on the blogs over the years, doesn’t he usually go with higher snow totals most of the time regardless?

  73. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: I expect max QPF to occur SE MA to Cape Cod – exceeding 3″ liquid equivalent. Amounts drop below 2″ outside roughly Rte495

      1. IIRC Matt has been burned a few times over the past couple of years…maybe he’s playing it safe for now…maybe he’s seeing something others don’t.

  74. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: As one escapes from highest moisture, snow:water ratios rise considerably. Near 20:1 ratio CON-PWM-EPO

  75. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: Boston – particularly @BostonLogan – snow:water ratio as low as 6:1 possible once coastal front moves in, then N wind fluffs late

    1. hmmm….one might think that with a coastal front it would just switch to rain in Boston….Not sure if Matt’s thinking and his ratio make any sense to me…but then again he’s the met and I’m not.

    1. Latest indications now suggest that the storm nearly stalls for 12 hours as it crawls south east of nantucket, and that snow may linger into saturday evening! This is a far cry from Saturday morning and early afternoon. I still feel 18-24 inches is extremely conservative. If storm verifies, we can be talking about widespread 24-36 inches of snow with a town or two reaching 40 inches! Sounds crazy but very possible! WOW!

    1. Maybe during the first 30 minutes of the storm but as storm cranks, heights will rapidly fall and ratios will not be an issue in Boston. 12 inches in Boston is extremely prudent. I bet someone makes out with close to 40 inches of snow!

  79. Matt may be right with the 6:1 for the immediate shore for a while. We all know that differences can be enormous over a matter of a mile or so.

    2. TK any idea what the ratios were early on during the April Fools storm in 97?

      It will be interesting to see what happens here in Hingham….an easterly wind actually has to cover about 3-4 miles over land while a North or Northeast wind only has come in over 1-3 miles..

  80. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: Watch approx 800mb level – if it warms to -4C or warmer, really cuts back on ratios. New NAM sends ORH to -2!

    1. Hadi…I think we may have some ratio issues (and or a mix) for several hours but due to predicted long duration of the storm I think Boston is still up over 18 inches imho. I think Matt’s overall Boston totals could be too low.

  83. TK–Some of the latest guidance slows this storm down even further than anticipated a few hours ago leaving eastern sections locked in the snow until Saturday evening (obviously at a lighter pace), however, if this were to verify, wouldn’t 18-24 inches seem conservative? And how likely is it that a town or two pics up 3 feet in your opinion. I feel it is quite possible!

    1. It sure is possible. As a forecaster, we call for amounts over 20 inches so infrequently it’s very hard to do. It’s almost like an area we are just not sure of.

  84. Did anyone notice the pocket of above 0C temps at 850mb that occurred on the NAM run around the back side of the storm over central MA and portions of CT? That would imply a period of sleet mixing in at the height of the storm in those locations. Is that even plausible or is the NAM out to lunch?

  90. at 63hrs still giving the coast 1.50-1.75 and still snowing. Further east but good dumping I think as we approach this is going to fluctuate a bit. Don’t Stress

  92. Looking on the bright side we will still get accumulating snow. This is one thing I worried about is what the GFS is showing on this run. As I said earlier the ingredients are there for a big time snow event but if one thing goes wrong it will be a much different outcome. If the 0z EURO shows what the 0z GFS is showing then this might be the start of trend to a less impactful system but one that still produces several inches of accumulating snow.

  94. It can never be easy and I have been uneasy about this storm all day. That is why earlier in the day I asked about the possibility of OTS. There could be some surprises come morning. Lets see how the present this on the 11pm news.

  96. The NAM buries us with 60 inches and the GFS still paints the region with a foot and a half. Relax people. It’s one model run and thank goodness it’s the inconsistent GFS 😉 The King will chill you out in a couple of hours.

    1. If the 00z Euro is east then we’ll know the GFS was onto something. Remember, in theory each model run closer to the event SHOULD be more accurate. Unfortunately it doesn’t always work that way.

      1. I appreciate your input. Do you feel in your heart of hearts that the EURO will trend east? I would expect small fluctuations amongst the models as we approach the storm, yet, the GFS demonstrates a pretty big eastward shift which makes me question it.

  99. Still appears to give BOB-PVD and points SE 12-18″, ramping up to 2 feet+ on the Cape.

    JJ-we’d receive about 6-12″ statewide in CT. Big letdown if this verifies.

      1. I’d take it too normally, but with all this build up and the insane model runs, I have to say I’d be very let down if we only got 8″ out of this.

    1. Deep breaths. This there out but they don’t seem to be buying into the latest GFS. If the EURO trends east, perhaps the storm won’t be historic, but still be major. I’m not jumping on the GFS after one run after the NAM just crushes us.

  104. Unfortunately the GFS may be on to something. With those pieces of energy now on shore in the Western US, perhaps it is picking up on something with one of the waves of energy. It just looks like the northern stream doesnt catch up in time and the phase happens too late to pull it back closer. If the Euro is showing this too, then there is serious cause for concern.

    1. It appears as if the northern jet doesn’t catch up but that isn’t how it quite works. The southern jet is the moisture source as evidenced by all the rain/T-storms along the gulf states. As the southern storm hits the coast, it will gather even more moisture from the Atlantic. The third step is the transferring of the energy from the northern stream into the developing cyclone off the Carolina coast. Surely the southern jet storm hits the coast first. The question becomes, will the northern jet transfer it’s energy in time or will it occur to late. I’m not buying into the latest GFS. The EURO has stood ground for 10 consecutive runs while the GFS shows something different with each run. If the EURO trends east like the GFS then ‘perhaps’ it could be time for concern. I do not feel the EURO trends east however.

      1. I think we are saying the same thing. The infusion of energy from the northern stream happens later. I wouldn’t be terribly concerned yet for Boston and points SE, but this would seriously reduce snow totals in CT and western/central MA.

        I hope you are right about the Euro.

  106. WBZ had a segment at Roache Bros. in Natick showing shelves still well stocked but already this evening some stocking up on…milk & bread, LOL. 😀

    Things still haven’t changed much since ’78 have they? Can’t say that I blame them though and in fact, I bought extra bread and milk today myself. 🙂

  108. Haven’t the pieces of energy been on shore already? Wouldn’t the 12z gfs had picked this up or Euro? I’m suspect with the whole thing.

  111. Charlie,

    It definitely isn’t terrible at all…If anything the lower qpf would equate to the same amount of snow because of higher snow ratios. Decisions Decisions do I want to stay up for Euro?? What time does it come out?

  112. I am going to be heading to the grocery store myself tomorrow. I will never forget shopping in the store on that Sunday prior to the blizzard of 96 when the lines at the check out counter were around the corner.

    1. see my above questions. After looking at all the EURO runs and the latest NAM run which once again paints us with 5-6 feet of snow, I am not buying into the latest GFS. If the EURO trends east, then perhaps we have something to talk about.

  116. None of the local METS as of 11:20 update have bought into the GFS. They are still concerned with mixing for CC and the islands.

  117. We have way too much info as our disposable. It will drive everyone crazy to look at each run. Euro is way to go at this pint, GFS has been late to the party. 20 inches vs. 25 or 30. Either way most get a monster storm.

  119. I do believe the euro goes east just a hair and the gfs will come slightly west and there will be the track, also I think the sweet spot will be west and south west of Boston as a coastal front sets up, looks like boston gets around 15-20 inches which is still big

    1. Won’t be a coastal front as boundary layers won’t really be in issue in most locales as heights crash during peak hours of storm.

  120. Hadi, Link to RPM? OR post totals or ranges???

    Comments re: GFS

    Not sure what to make of it. We are in the area where the NAM is to be TRUSTED,
    Overcooking precip notwithstanding. HUGE difference in track and strength between
    the NAM and the GFS.

    NAMpocalypse vs. GFSnocalypse

    We need to see that EURO NOW!!!!!!

    My gut says toss out the GFS, but my Gut is rather large and certainly not always right.

  121. TJ, you are correct about those pieces of energy – they were most definitely on shore for the 12z runs today. In fact, they are in the central US now. Dumb comment by me!

    As far as the 0z GFS, just caught the FOX CT and NBC CT 11PM newscasts. FOX still going with 10-20″ statewide and NBC going with 15″+ Statewide except immediate shore. FOX meterologist mentioned the GFS being further east but is discounting it as it has been inconsistent with track. Said they will reevaluate tomorrow – may have to shift totals slightly down OR up.

      1. Very True.

        We’ll see what the Euro says.

        I am really interested in what the 12Z NAM says tomorrow. 😀

  124. TJ – Euro comes out before 1:30AM. Usually there are several folks on the Accuweather forum with access to it a bit earlier and start posting the results. I am exhausted but may just have to stay up now!

  127. All mets are calling this a 36 hr. storm…how many hours was Blizzard of ’78?

    I seem to remember that blizzard starting shortly before noon on 2/6 and ending late afternoon on 2/7…if my memory serves me correctly.

    1. Depends where you were. Around here it spit snow all afternoon (Ocean effect) but didn’t really get going till 3-4 PM. Quite around 3 or 4 PM next day.

      I’d say it was closer to a 24 hour event. Just my opinion and memory.

  128. The staying power during sat could be impressive and the radar could be circling bands that stay in place and the back edge of precip moves very very slowly east

  129. Just reading the 0z GGEM has taken a shift SE as well and is now about 25-50 miles SE of the benchmark and the speed is faster. Still a big impact but less QPF over much of SNE, with the exception of cape Cod.

  132. Yeah but I think in the end we either get a foot or 2 ft just depending on track, even with that models track it dumps 12-18 inches just south of Boston 🙂

  135. Harvey tweeted a much smaller storm with less than 10 inches in Providence and less than 6 inches in ct, wow the truth always comes around

        1. Yes it is…..I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t stressing out just a bit about the upcoming Euro. Dying to see what it says I’m hoping no OTS.

          1. I’ve been watching model runs and the banter on here as well as between mets on twitter, Facebook and television. I’m on overload at this point. Prepared for the worst, hoping for the best. I love the weather except for when it gets this crazy and I have to make a judgment call on whether or not I drive through a raging blizzard to my job as a nurse. It’s stressful to have such a responsibility while worrying about your own personal safety.

  136. Charlie,

    He was tweeting what the latest 00z gfs has for snow amounts. He wasn’t fully buying into the solution but said it has a general idea. Still has Boston over 17″ and providence around 10″

  137. GFS/UKMET/GGEM have all shifted southeast with their latest runs while the latest NAM and previous Euro maintain the more powerful/closer position to the coast with potential for prolific snow accumulations. This next Euro run in 40 minutes will be big.

  138. My heart stopped when i saw the commebts about the 0z model runs. Of course, i knew this was too good to be truee lol. Its funny how our mind works because even with the newest trends, my town still gets a foot of snow, now if someone told us a week ago that we are going to get a foot of snow, hell we would be cheering and be soo happy even 6 inches sounded good last, ir any week as a matter fact since this winter has been lacking alot of snow., but after being lead on believing that this storm will be historic, dropping atleast 2 feet of snow and the nam even showing.more got us soo excited and myself included, now if that gfs run verifies and my town only get a foot of snow, boy will i be dissapointed, even tho i am sure all winter we were begging for a foot, and now we find a foot of snow.dissapointing, lol reverse psychology there i thinkk!?

  139. Not so much being disappointed its is thing going to BUST big time or no??? I’m concerned that everything is now moving in the wrong direction 48hrs out…ugghhghg

  141. God i hope this is not a bust, otherwise this blog will not be pleasant in the next few days, the fact the ukmet ggem also tended east scares the heck out of me, how accurate are tbese models anyway?

    1. I wouldnt put a ton of weight in the UKMET. The GGEM has some merit, but the HPC said it was an outlier in that it is too fast. Despite its SE shift, it had a lower surface pressure with the latest run so SNE still does OK.

  142. I really don’t see much risk of Boston metro missing out on this. It’s the difference between a major 12-18″ storm or monster 18-24″+ storm at this point. However, for me here in CT, this southeast shift could be the difference between us getting 6″ or 20″ of snow which is why I am so concerned. The exact track is going to make all the difference.

  143. Mark,

    Did the ukmet or ggem show a progressive storm or still slowing down? These are the most reliable of models so we got to see what euro has to say.

  149. I was chatting with a fellow forecaster. Believing the reason for the shift is models are getting a better handle on the energy pieces and the fact that blocking is not really there. Makes it easier for positive tilt trough, and more progression, therefore a more SE track with the main low… Not saying we are heading this way, but cannot rule it out.

  159. I am reading it is similar but not quite as good as last night’s 0z run but is the snowiest of all the runs tonight – at least for NYC area. Drops 2″ QPF in NYC! If that is correct, bodes very well for SNE.

  160. Chris Lambert tweets: @clamberton7: No major changes in Euro… 500mb short wave goes negative, ignites the storm, slows progression down to give us a huge snowstorm. #7news

  161. Euro is further WEST and colder than last run per Joe Bastardi. Drops 12-18″ snow now in NYC. 2″ QPF for Hartford would yield 2 feet here. 3″ max QQF totals are gone – the highest are now 2.5″ QPF but with a colder solution and higher ratios, 30″ still possible somewhere.

  166. 12z Euro city totals:

    BOS ends up right around 2.90″ liquid – if a 10:1 ratio is achieved (may be difficult), 29″ would be an all time record breaker

    Worcester ends up with 2.35″ – easily over 2 feet with higher ratios.

    Pretty much everyone east of teh CT River valley gets 2″+ QPF and is in the game for 2′ of snow.

    I can rest better now – good night all!

  167. Harvey Leonard: @HarveyWCVB: European model keeps storm closer to coast resulting in most snow..looks like 1′ is a lock in Boston, and 2′ is possible

  168. Same here Mark. The Euro looks really great still. Its tone down a bit from 12z but thats okay. See everyone in 7hrs.

  171. The Fox 25 weather team just gave these amounts on their 4am newscast:

    Boston 26″
    Worcester 34″
    Lowell 30″
    Chatham 7″
    Nashua 26″

    Good grief…

    1. Melissa on BZ early this am gives Boston 18-24+. Pete has 16-24 and has backed off his 30+ in some spots.

      I am not sure where they are getting these forecasted totals. I see the storm moving somewhat east and I understand a foot but I don’t see the two feet.

      2. If you get some heavy banding of snow to setup where you get snow rates of 1-3 inches an hour for a good period of time you could get up to
        the 2 foot mark if not go over it a little bit. Models have a tough time knowing where these banding features
        will setup shop.

  172. Blizzard Watches just got extended to 3 of the 4 southern counties in CT. I would expect the winter storm watches and possibly the blizzard watches to be upgraded to warnings. Even if the storm system does end of up tracking a little further southeast warning criteria should be met with at least 6 inches of snow. As one meteorologist here in CT put it at 11pm last night even if it does track further east it is still going to be a major snow but if it tracks closer to the coast it could be an historic storm.

  173. I have a suggestion ………

    DON’T LOOK AT THE MODELS TODAY !

    Based on yesterday’s euphoria, today can only bring disappointment. Yesterday’s amazing track, mini-stall off the coast, QPF, snow projections, it can ONLY get less perfect today.

    Assume 1 to 2 feet, lets all watch the radars and satellite loops today and see if we can figure out by those if things look as promising or not 🙂

    Ok ? No one’s going to be able to do that 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Thats my goal. I’d like to age 1 day today and not 5 years. 🙂

    1. LOL. There is something to be said for not knowing how to read models. I just have the benefit of the discussion without the aging factor tossed in 😉

  174. Wxrisk.com The European model has held course and it has not backed down at all. It is confidently and hysterically laughing at the incompetence and inconsistency of the RPM .. NAM and GFS Models.

    For the 7th run in a row it shows a massive snowstorm for all of central and southern and Eastern New England… And a continues to show heavy snow for New York City and most of Northern New Jersey. It is far and away the SNOWIEST of any weather model and the coldest. Its consistency is amazing and in some ways reassuring.

    The European models morning shows a large band of 8 to 12 inches of snow covering all of New York City Northern New Jersey into the lower portions of the Hudson River Valley — Newburg which then extends up into Southern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire and Central Maine.

    There is a band of 12 to 18 inches over Queens and New York City up towards White Plains … and in towards Torrington CT and and the berkshires in far Western Connecticut …

    There is a band of 18 to 24 inches of snow covering all of Connecticut except for the far northwest corner all of Central Massachusetts … Into far southeastern New Hampshire… And 24 to 30 inches of snow over Boston southeastern Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island

  176. Longshot the euro maintain its track with QPF so that’s whybtheybare holding with the high numbers. NAm even though overdone still a monster and its getting in its range.

      1. Poorly if I remember right. The average person on the street was talking about the “Euro” it seemed when it came to that storm.

  178. mornin’ all.

    Looks like all systems are a go.

    I’ll be switching from model mode to radar mode after 18z runs today.

    Is there a prediction deadline? Vicki?

  179. This upgrade has more to do with forecasted hurricane force winds oppose to increased snow totals, which I believe has also been slightly increased.
    425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013
    WINTER STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WATCH.IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
    THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TAUNTON HAS UPGRADED A WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
    * LOCATIONS.CAPE COD & THE ISLANDS.AS WELL AS BLOCK ISLAND.

    1. Shotime I saw your question about Sandy and the GFS had a fish storm while the EURO was saying a left hand turn would
      happen and a landfall would happen in the U.S. The GFS came around to the EURO 3-4 days prior to Sandy making landfall The EURO was showing this about 7-8 days prior to Sandy.
      By comparison the GFS had the right idea all along with Debby bringing it into Florida while the EURO kept insisting on
      a western Gulf of Mexico landfall until a few days prior to Debby impacting Florida when the EURO came around to the GFS.
      I would not discount the GFS solution yet but its hard to go against the EURO which has been consistent for a while now with
      this storm system.

  180. I saw the euro snow map on twitter but I cannot post the link here. Does anyone else have access to it?

  181. OK, now we need to get to the MAIN forecast — traffic at the supermarkets. My forecast is that by noon today is:

    1) few to no parking spaces available–leading to parking lot road rage
    2) an average of 2 customers per square foot in the store
    2) milk and bread at a premium — hoarders selling the last of it in the parking lot
    3) an average of 6 carts in each checkout lane
    4) 100 customers at all times in the deli section
    5) Ice cream sold out (I thinkit sold out in the last big winter storm)

    In case you want to know how I arrived at these numbers, I used a blend of the Euro and NAM.

    1. Bingo. I will be there too, I will post an eye-witness account.

      Thinking MetroWest will be a good benchmark for measurement, with a qpf of 8 quarts of milk per shopper, higher totals expected locally.

    2. Was there last night late…mob scene…one lady had 11 loaves of bread and 8 gallons of milk! You wont go thirsty…just melt the snow!!!

  183. Morning Everyone. NWS is showing a widespread 18-24 across most of SNE. It also looks like they are delaying the onset of the storm in their text forecast section by calling for snow showers and a 1-3″ accumulation during the day Friday. I haven’t read their general discussion yet but is the consensus that the onset will be somewhat delayed? If not this seems somewhat irresponsible in their wording “snow showers” in terms of business closings, etc. Most businesses look only at the “buzz words” and not the details of any forecasts.

    1. Keith Pete and JR were saying you’d be pretty much ok thru the afternoon but be off roads by 7 pm. I was surprised as I thought it would be earlier. Yet they had snow showers all day picking up somewhat around 2

  184. Talk about a model that has gone bonkers but one of the future models that is used by our local NBC station in CT is projecting 36.4 inches for Worcester and 28.8 inches where I am Watertown. I had to pause the tv and rewind it to make sure I was reading the right getting ready for work. I don’t see that happening and think it is over done but I would not be surprised to see snowfall reaching the two foot mark if not going a little past it in parts of SNE.

        2. My uncle used to live out there, pretty part of the country – miss snowmobiling with him during the holidays.

            2. My relatives are over on Northfield St/Rd; I can see why autumn would be great, rolling hills with lots of trees.

        3. I always thought you meant Watertown ma. Silly me. I spent a lot of time fishing and exploring that area with a friend who lived in suffield CT

  186. after reading the discussion I would have to say that the snow shower wording should not be there and that maybe slightly stronger wording should be included.

    LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME STEADY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE…THE BIGGEST
    UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY ADVANCES
    NORTHWARD.

    1. I know the latest NAM brings in some precip issues further north than other runs, but i dont think that line, during the heaviest part of the storm anyways, makes it past the cape cod canal area

  189. Radar shows some good slugs of energy out ther, will be interesting to watch them advance over the next 24 hrs

  192. JJ what is your take on when it will end for your area and NW of Hartford. Family is trying to make funeral plans for sometime this weekend for my wife’s grandmother near Winsted.

    1. North – my condolences to your wife. I’m thinking that her grandmother might have had a wonderfully, long life. How special for her and your wife!

      1. Thanks Vicki she was going to be 90 on Feb. 28th. She had a long healthy life and died yesterday morning after only a brief illness. We have some very special memories with her and she became a grandmother to me as well over the last 25 years That I had known her.

    2. North, sorry to hear about your loss. The bulk of the storm here in CT looks to be over by noon Saturday but I would expect roads to be a mess the bulk of the day. I would avoid Saturday all together if possible.

    1. We need to get a few things at the supermarket today also but did most of our “shopping” yesterday but only for necessities. I noticed batteries were already in low supply. It does seem that the D cells go first.

  195. now it’s just a waiting game…

    How am I going to concentrate today!

    Have fun at the store longshot. I’ve got to get just a couple gallons of milk and fill two 5 gallon gas tanks for the generator just in case.

    1. Same here. My honey to do list is to fill two 5 gallon gas containers and hit the supermarket for some paper products. We purchased a generator and food on Wednesday.

        1. retrac my SIL (has a plumbing business) was explaining to me about transfer switches and backfeeding, etc. I decided not a good idea to get a generator if we don’t know what we are doing with it.

          Captain – he also said Honda.

          1. Aye! If you go with a switch instead of extension cords and it is a commercial grade generator, read the manual carefully – there is a part that needs to be removed for residential use or you will keep tripping the breaker at the generator. That aside – they are excellent/reliable.

          2. Vicki, the steps I described below are very simple to follow and allow for quick and safe emergency power distribution. A Transfer Switch (Manual or Automatic) is nice but to me its simply another piece of equipment that could fail during a critical time. Simply attach the cords at both ends, flip a breaker and start the generator.

            1. Thank you coastal – and thanks to everyone. As I said, my main concern is that pipes would freeze. I am not worried about house power (you all know that) so the expense is a tough one to swallow for the occasional winter storm that could threaten pipes. That being said, if my pipes do freeze, I’ll be incredibly sorry.

        2. I am running extension cords for this one. When I have time I plan on installing a 30 amp 4 pole enclosed circuit breaker and 30 amp twist lock receptacle next to the panel and feed my critical circuits through that. So it will be as simple is plugging in the cord at the generator and at the receptacle, shutting off the 30 amp breaker in the panel to achieve emergency distribution. I plan on putting the furnace, water heater, microwave and refrigerator on generator power. The more I think about it I also will do some additional wiring so that my smoke and carbon detectors are energized along with a TV and Cable Equipment. I have LED Lighting so I will put a couple of lights on a emergency circuit as well.

          1. That’s the set-up I have coastal; just be sure to get an appropriate length:gauge wire to run a good distance from the home. I run my generator in a shed that has double entry for cross venting – though the horizontal snow may challenge that set-up this go round. May need a makeshift lean-to.

            1. Good Point Captain. Voltage drop must be considered when addresses your power cord. #10 AWG is good for 30 amps but if your cord is 75′ or long you will want to use a #8 AWG Cord.

          2. You’ll be fine with the cords if we even lose power at all. You’ll really like the system you’re planning on. I’ve got a pretty slick transfer switch. I have a 3500 sq. ft. house and can power all critical things and then some (except for stove, dryer etc…) with only a 5500 watt generator.

    2. retrac, just want to apologize for my little rant yesterday. I’m under a lot of pressure right now w/husband. He has a lot of medical issues and one that recently came up, so I have been kind of nervous. I am kind of looking forward to the storm but w/husband not right it makes me more nervous. Have a good day and I am sure you will be able to concentrate.

      1. rainshine – been looking for you! I’ll have to re-read to see why you are apologizing because I didn’t see anything that needed an apology. I am sorry to hear your husband is having problems. Please remember, I am only a few miles away. Although, with whatever virus I have you might not want me near you quite yet!

        Anyway, I wanted to tell you that at one point, one of the major storms was named. I ran across it but for the life of me can’t remember which one. I was doing a lot of reading on Feb 1978 but also on the December 1992 blizzard so it could have been either one of those. I went off to see if I could find it but then didn’t see you return yesterday. I’ll keep looking.

      2. I didn’t realize you ranted. I was stuck in a meeting and then class all afternoon and then into the night so I must have missed a post. If you were giving me a hard time about anything it’s all good. I’m a big boy and can handle it.

        All the best to you and your husband – stay safe!

    1. Nice Hadi –

      I’m still thinking about what to call but I pulled out a tape measure and put it against my twelve year old son to show him what swimming through 3′ of snow would be like and his eyes lit up.

  197. Thanks, Vicki.

    Last wk. my husband developed a problem where he has an urgency to relieve his bladder. He had two different tests at hospital – to check his stool and urine. (sorry, grotesque). Both came out ok. They say he has no infection. His endocrinologist did some blood work on him yesterday. He prob’ly will have to see a urologist. If alisonarod is around I wonder at some point he could say what it might be??

    1. “could” be an enlarged prostrate. IF that is what it is, the urologist can
      prescribe some pills to help. Hopefully Alisonarod can shed more light on it
      for you.

      Hope all is well.

    2. rainshine – ugh – I’m so sorry to hear that. Could also be kidney stone. If you need the name of a good urologist, I’d be happy to share with you. Just email me. As you know, I have chronic kidney stones so am a frequent visitor to their office. His partner is also exceptional and the one who treated my daughter recently for her enlarged kidney (28 weeks pregnant).

  200. 00Z and 06Z GFS are very similar in keeping amounts way down from previous runs (i cant believe im saying keeping amounts down when that would still give boston a foot). If thats the NAM backing off than thats still an insane amount of snow!

  203. WHDH removed the isolated 30″ amount from it’s snowmap. I wouldn’t have done that. I think someone is going to see 3 ft out of this storm.

    2. WHDH – every one of the morning people – has been stressing the words “could” “potential” “possible” or anything else that gives them an out…….management ?? I don’t know if the other stations are doing the same as I only watched 7 this morning!

    1. Its getting to the point anyways this close when the medium range models like the GFS and EURO are becoming irrelevant. We’ll drive ourselves nuts by looking at them.

    1. sure does. N.Y.C. , Northern New Jersey all get in on it big time as well with this run. Truly historic for millions and millions of people if this comes in like this.

  211. Even with the east wind at onset, i dont think the rain/snow line gets as far as it did in that dec storm that had rain all the way up to 495. That line MIGHT it to route 24 for a short time, but no further west.

  213. That 39hr. panel is just unreal. I mean, that’s the stuff weather geeks like me (and most of us here) dream of for a snowstorm.

    1. Seriously. I wonder how much NAM blend will be in the forecast. “They” have to be concerned about this no??

  217. I love reading this blog, but rarely post. I must say that the model maps are not geared to someone who is colorblind like I am!

    2. Tim, glad to see you posted here. I’m sorry that you cannot see the color changes on the model runs. Please feel free to ask any questions and well all will be more than happy to answer them for you.

  218. 12ZNAM at 48 Hours:

    Surface, 850mb
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013020712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048

    500mb
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013020712&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=048

    300mb
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013020712&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=048

    INSANE SNOWS!!!!! 30 inches for Boston 1t 48 hours with it still coming down in buckets!!!!

  222. What a shift WEST. Track is over Cape Cod now! Definite mixing there. Insane snow totals and wind pretty much everywhere else!

  227. NAM thoughts-

    Its shift west is not supported by the High placement to the north, it is too warm and suffering massive convective feedback issues.

  228. Most part yes; for the last 24 hours I believe it has been too warm and the convective feedback is a consistent issue.

    1. How do you explain Grey NWS office not discounting it?
      Curious, is all, not trying to cause trouble. Trying to understand all of this.

      Many thanks

    2. Thanks everyone…O.S. awesome work with the links, keep em coming. JMA I have a question regarding this convective feedback issue as I just don’t understand it. How do we know it’s an issue and what is it really? Thanks

  230. I have a question asked with all respect . If the potential snow amounts being discussed here are realistic why are the media outlets only forecasting about 1/3 of those amounts? Are the high amounts just for discussion purposes and not likely to
    Happen? I’m REALLY confused……..

    1. The TV Mets cannot go out there now and say 36″ to 48″. It would cause a wide spread panic. Once we get within 24 hours of the storm starting (we are approaching that) they will up there totals based on the models and their own applied meteorology. If they heavy amounts are still there on the runs than I would expect to Mets to up their totals as well as show more specific locations.

    2. At the amounts given, the message is already there to people that a major disruption is coming. So, whether its 1 to 2 ft or a lot more, the 1 to 2 ft delivers the same message. I think its a safer forecast, because it is really rare to get more than that, so the chances of it verifying are very small. If it ends up being 40 inches, the mets will get more credit for forecasting a big storm, even if they end up too low. But, if the mets say 40 inches, and we all end up with 18 inches, trust me, all that will be said is that it was a blown forecast.

  231. I can speak to the NAM just this year alone.

    When our friend Hadi was in Augusta and got clobbered with 12 inches of snow and temps never got close to 25F, the NAM would have had one believe (namely me, haha) that there was going to be an inch of snow, followed by mostly rain and temps near 40F. The 546 thickness, never mind the 540 thickness was supposed to end up north of Augusta, and of course, never came close.

  232. There already is a wide spread panic! I own a retail bakery and it is a total mob scene here this morning…….

  233. just now from Todd

    Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    In figure skating terms, this storm not only will stall off the Cape but it might do a toe loop keeping the snow going thru Sat PM!

    1. lol, only Todd would throw a figure skating reference in there. Im going with a triple axle triple lutz myself and sticking the landing!

  236. Let’s take a sanity check.

    We all know that the NAM is likely overdone.
    We “think” the GFS might be under done.

    Which leaves us with the Euro in the middle.

    I think the Euro is what to expect out of this one (for now anyway until something
    changes. :D)

    😀

    1. Agreed. I think what we can take from the NAM is placement of heaviest snows. Cut the fantasy amounts down, but take it for the features and where these things are setting up. EURO wont be able to do that in this time frame.

    1. Think I’ll sneak out at lunch.

      We actually have some superbowl fun food we never cooked – we’ll just have a blizzard party now.

  240. ok. im not posting amounts until later this evening. but.
    nam i think is over done.
    gfs concerns me that it will only be a “normal nor-easter”
    some of the other models are hinting towards the gfs while others are going toward the euro. so these are the reasons why im waiting until tonight.

  241. But in fairness I also respect the NWS office in Grey, they are outstanding and they are not discounting the NAM

  243. No matter what model you look at though the Ct. river valley really gets hosed (on a relative basis) from the shadow effect

  248. I am going to try to explain a little bit of the NAM and convective feedback, but it gets into a lot of physics and atmospehric chemistry. I really don’t want to sound like a know it all, because believe me I don’t, but I am pretty confident of what is going on with the NAM.

    When the NAM tends to process a low pressure system underneath another low as it is doing in this case, convective feedback often occurs. Look at the NAM at 39 hours. See the Great Lakes Lows and then draw a straight diagonal line about 400 miles south to the 2nd low blowing up. It is the reflection and absorption of that low that creates a convective band that you can verify is not supported by the models own thermodynamic parameters and its kinematic parameters, yet there is rapid latent heat transfer causing this convective band which creates an anomalously high quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM changed it kinematic equation in 2012 and it has created a lot more feedback issues than the model ever has had in its past. Also a lot of times a fall 3rd pressure drop is created about 200-400 miles further south of the 2nd low and then that creates a false signal for extended precipitation away from the 2nd low pressure and retrogrades the spin of this 3rd area towards the 2nd or now combined low, which leads to the NAM’s infamous reputation for holding onto precipitation too long.

    1. Right. He and TK are really patient and truly free-thinking people listening to us talk crazy half the time!

  250. TK’s previous thoughts on snow amounts…

    “Snow amounts: POTENTIAL snowfall, and this will be updated based on details as they change. 12 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts, except 6-12 inches in far southeastern MA especially the Cape Cod region (pending the mixing situation), and 3-6 inches Nantucket where it may mix much longer.”

  251. What I don’t want people think is that I am not going for a significant snowstorm. I am.

    Generally a widespread 20-26″ in the areas most people live; Worcester east I think is a good bet. I just can’t go in on a widespread 36-48″. Which is another 1-2″ melted!!

    1. I still have lots of data to look over and am tied up for a few hours but it looks like we are of similar thought. And thanks for your input on the NAM’s c.f. issues. I am going to pass along that explanation to some who need it. It is right on the mark.

    1. Right, after 24″ can we all agree we are playing with the house’s money?

      Love Vegas, but that is for another time/blog.

  258. Hey all…oh well was hoping for a change of course but it is what it is. Any sense as to the snow type (fluffy?) I am ~12 miles north of Boston…thinking about roof weight and hoping it’s not the heavy stuff. Thanks!

    1. Definitely nice & fluffy for your area….also probably even Boston for the most part. Plymouth south to Cape definitely heavy/wet.

      2. I agree looking slightly more on the fluffy side even just south of the city. My antennas will like that 🙂

  259. I knew yesterday that amounts of 12-20 and even 16-24 were too conservative. I will maintain widespread 24-30 inch amounts with isolated 36-40!

  260. I’m not sure who is keeping track of storm totals but here is my prediction:

    Worcester: 34″

    Boston: 28″

    PVD: 30″

    Sweet spots–Norwood, Dedham, Foxboro: 37.5″

    2. I have your totals arod – and thanks. When this all calms down if you have a minute, can you explain to me the use or prednisone for a cough and side effects. I wouldn’t take it for another 2 or so days so the explanation can wait – thank you 🙂

      1. Vicki,
        Prednisone is an anti-inflammatory and it has many uses, especially for inflammatory processes of the lung i.e. Bronchitis (itis=inflammation). The general rule regarding prednisone in acute lung infection is only use it in the presence of airway constriction. A main symptom of airway constriction is the presence of wheezing which will be heard by your PCP on lung examination. In few instances, prednisone can be used without the presence of wheezing on exam and is only reserved for those who have developed a chronic cough which failed antibiotics and or cough suppressants. Just remember, cough suppressants are for cough while prednisone is to reduce airway constriction/inflammation. In some instances, an antibiotic is added to the cocktail in the presence of bacterial lung infections i.e. pneumonia/bronchitis. Prednisone is a great drug if used in the short term. Short term side effects include insomnia, nightmares, mood swings, temporary weight gain from water weight and euphoria. Long term side effects includ bone degeneration leading to osteoporosis, cataracts, weight gain, medicine induced diabetes, etcetera. These long term effects only occur in people who are taking the drug daily for a very long period of time. However, in your case, your prednisone may be tapered over 12 days or you may be using a low dose for 5-7 days. This short term use will not create long term effects.

        1. Thank you very, very much – I started antibiotics yesterday so will wait a few days and you can definitely hear the wheezing – husband asked the other night if I was whistling. Chronic is a mild statement for whatever this is. I really appreciate your help and the information 😀

    3. Ok here are my totals

      Lowell: 24 ”
      Worcester: 34″
      Boston: 31″
      Hingham: 28″
      PVD: 31″
      Plymouth: 24″

  261. I do not think the nams that overdone this time around, it’s overdone but not as overdone as some think,

    1. Charlie, I am getting into the habit of believing pretty much everything you say at this point.

      So I hope you’re right!

  262. The most snow i have ever seencin my life was in the blizzard of 2005 when i use to live in woburn and we got 2 feet of snow exactly. I hope i see 30 inches. Wonder how that would look!

  264. I hope everyone is ready and we don’t loose power. What ever this storm does it has had over 1770 posts on this site already. Good luck to all of you.

  265. Same to your Merlin, I wish only the best to everyone. I know we are excited but in no means do any of us which harm to anyone. We are just excited as weather nuts.

  269. @NSTAR_News: NSTAR is prepared for the nor’easter & will have crews at the ready across our service area. Customers should prepare for power outages.

    Dear NSTAR – I am prepared and hope you all have a safe storm – recent scorecard at home…
    Irene: 6 days w/o power
    Snowtober: 4 days w/o power
    Sandy: 4 days w/o power

  270. Question for everyone: We are having a hard time deciding about work tomorrow. I’m currently in operations, so this is partially my call.

    Regardless, we are planning an early release (one of my biggest pet peeves, I’d prefer not to come in at all) but are having a time figuring out timing.

    Our offices are in Brighton.

    Any thoughts?

    1. Thanks for asking. I know my husband and my niece are wondering the same thing. The fear is that if everyone lets people go early, then there is a traffic mess while snow accumulates

  271. Just got the e-mail that my son’s daycare is closing at noon tomorrow and my choose to not open at all. DS….we are in a similar predicament here at my work as far as a closing time. We generally wait and see how it is and then make the call to close. Not my favorite method either as I hate sending people home when the storm could be intensifying.

  273. I like WBZ’s new snow map. I think the wild card on that map is the coast from CCC North. They could go either way. Which storm was it were Peabody and Plymouth got the jack pot of accumulations?

  279. Good afternoon- well still looks like a big one. we
    have been busy all morning here at the hospital getting
    ready. Im heading up to the roofs to check all of the drains.
    I sugest you guys check all your gutters and make sure there is
    no clogs. Good stuff above. I suspect when I get here at 7am tomorrow
    I may be here till sunday. Oh well, it will help with disney in may. back later.

    1. john – great suggestion – thanks. Son is thinking he may be at work for the duration also if he gets drafted tomorrow night. Good luck and be safe

    2. My husband does maintenance and snow removal at a large apartment complex and they have already told him that they will be putting him up at a hotel next door tomorrow night. I probably won’t see him until Sunday!

  281. I’m wondering if the NWS will be expanding the Blizzard watches and upcoming warnings to other parts of MA/NH? For example Northern Worcester County and Southern NH or maybe a Heavy Snow Warning instead?

  282. My guess

    Boston 21
    Worcester 26
    Providence 22
    Sweet spot – milford area – 28
    Framingham for the heck of it 18

    1. That’s a tough list to argue against Vicki.

      Ok, here it is then

      Worcester: 24.5″
      Boston: 22.5″

      Sweet Spot: Holliston 32″

  284. alisonarod – don’t know if you saw my earlier posts. I was wondering your thoughts? My husband started getting frequent urinary urges about a wk. ago. Actually had a slight accident re: that one night. Under the guidance of his stomach dr. he had a stool sample tested at the hospital (he has Crohn’s) and that was okay. Our family dr. had him have his urine tested at the hospital also and that came out ok – no infection. He had his blood taken yesterday by his endocrynologist . He also has an appt. w/a urologist on March 1st. My husband has lost about 16 lbs. in the past month. Pardon my misspelling – amongst all his other ills I’m kind of nervous. He takes many meds. for various things. If you get a chance, could you give me some info. on this?

    1. Rainshine. This is an obvious urinary issue so we can rule colorectal. I’m sure they performed a urine analysis with culture which was normal. Pertinent blood work that was likely ordered was a complete blood count, kidney function and the all important PSA (prostate specific antigen). One PSA reading is not what is important here. It’s the serial readings which means that his PSA should be compared with that of his PSA levels from prior years assuming they were taken. Even a PSA within normal limits could indicate a prostate issue if it was higher than the previous PSA. For example, if last year his PSA was 1.2 and this year it climbed to 2.0, that is cause for concern even though both values are within normal limits. A rectal examination was obviously performed to check for blood in stool but also to check for prostate abnormalities such as benign enlargement or nodules. Typically this is a prostate issue and is likely just a benign enlargement of the prostate that occurs with age. If the prostate becomes enlarged, it can push on the bladder creating a multitude of urinary symptoms including frequency, urgency, hesitancy, blood in urine and pain. His urgency stems likely from the prostate. The question becomes is it just enlargement or something more important. Enlargement of the prostate can be treated medically (i.e. medications to shrink it) or surgically (not commonly required). If the PSA comes back abnormal OR is normal but is higher than last year’s reading, then a trans-rectal ultrasound should then be performed to get a direct visualization of the prostate. Additionally, if the prostate examination by his PCP was abnormal, then a transrectal US should be performed regardless of the PSA level on his blood test. Lots of info. there so hope I didn’t confuse you.

      1. Thank you for the info. Hopefully, we’ll get back his blood results by nxt. wk. I guess it’s just a waiting game. And you didn’t confuse me. Whenever he gets his blood results back there is a lot of info. so I will be able to look at your post and figure it out. Thanks again!

  285. Here are my guesses. Not thinking that straight, but here goes.

    Boston 25
    Worcester 19
    Providence 22
    Sweet spot Norwood 30

  287. This is quite a headline!
    Snowstorm May Be One Of Biggest In New England History
    By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer
    February 7, 2013 12:03 PM

  290. Just thinking ~ about a week ago we were all moaning about the lack of snow and how this was turning out to be another dud of a winter. Who’d ever thought that what we’re about to experience was even a remote possiblity one week ago! 🙂

    1. I wish it still was a dud! I know I am in the minority and I am fine even with a 12″ storm…it is winter after all! Epic storms? I’ll pass…too many unknowns like will my house be OK?

      1. I figured we’d get a big snowstorm this season – I just thought later in Feb. or March. And it would be better at that time ’cause there would be faster melting w/the sun’s position. I’m with you re: wishing this one was a dud. I’m too nervous about a lot of things right now and being isolated in the house and no lights or heat at this time of yr. – uhhh, spring looks pretty good right now!

        1. I hear ya. At least next week we have some 40 degree days in there and sun…and it is suppose to be a fluffy snow (where I am anyway). Hope all goes well with you! I have generators but really I can only do the fridge, some lights…anything I can run a cable for. We didn’t lose it in 2005…hoping not this time. Heat is the big thing…if my furnance ran on a standard cable I’d be OK…HAHA.

        2. I feel the same way. I live by myself in my own house. I have close neighbors and my family lives a mile away. But, there is something about an impending blizzard and the possibility of power/heat loss that makes you have a feeling of trepidation. All we can do is prepare.

    2. Not that I predicted this but I have been saying over and over winter was not over. Imagine if this was the last snow for this winter. Talk about going out with a bang. I do not think though this will be it. I can’t come up with snow totals, I just don’t know, I think alot of snow for everyone. I’ll pass on the guess.

  293. This is what I have – not sure how it will show up but goes in order of Boston, Worcester, Providence, Sweet spot and sweet spot total

    Name Boston Worcester Providence Sweet spot Amt
    Tom 21.4 20.3 23.7 norwood 29.7
    Merlin 26.0 n/a n/a hingham 30.0
    Charlie 17.4 21.5 19.7 milford/norwood 27.5
    Shotime 22.0 25.0 30.0 Brighton 22.0
    Arod 28.0 34.0 30.0 Norwood/ded/fox 37.5
    Vicki 21.0 26.0 22.0 Milford 28.0
    Retrac 22.5 24.5 n/a Holliston 32.0
    Sue 21.0 26.0 23.0 Taunton 29.0
    Rainshine 25.0 19.0 22.0 Norwood 30.0
    Hadi 32.0 36.00 39.00 norwood 41.00
    Coastal 30.5 33.2 36 sharon 42

  297. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

    ECMWF seals deal for me. Map to clients, subscriber base first, on twitter later tonight.The ghost of John Lindsay lives on in the weather!

  298. All…some advice..keep all your mobile devices plugged in as much as you can over the next few days…cells, kindles, ipads, whatever. Keep them charged!

      1. If you don’t have a generator they have a solar charger somewhere…if the utility unions stopped protesting moving utilities underground we’d be better off. A lot of money is made in repairing external lines. 🙂

        1. shhhhhhhhh – someone’s husband may work for a utility that is leader in testing electrical equipment – let him retire and then bury the lines….just 3 more years 🙂

      2. I let my car run the past few times we lost power to charge – and my daughter just said I only had to put it on accssories – duh – and I used to work on cars.

      1. If this verifies, the all time record of 29″ is very much in jeopardy. I think Boston starts out with a low ratio and it gets up to 12 or 15:1 by the end.

  305. Euro even hammers NYC now with 2.25″ QPF! That’s over 20″ there!

    2.33″ QPF now in Hartford as well – holy crap!!

  307. Wxrisk.com
    ‎***ALERT ** ALERT ** THE BIG DOG IS HERE!! ….

    FOR THE 10th CONSECUTIVE RUN .. THE ECMWF ( european) MODEL HOLDS COURSE ..WITHOUT NAY VARIATION… SHOWS HISTORIC BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND … 30″+ SNOW

    In NYC MODEL IS COLDER.. Matches 12Z NAM and GFS shows MORE SNOW… at LEAST 12″ MAYBE 16″… Significant snowfall into Philly … S NJ .. and JUST into far Northeast PA

  309. Ratios just away from the coastline and northwest of plymouth county should remain 12:1 to 15:1 for much of the storm. EURO has many areas in SNE at 2.75 qpf which would approach 3 ft of snow for most! Blend that with the NAM and 40 inches is likely somewhere!

  310. Vicki –

    Boston 27.5″
    Worcester 31.4″
    Providence 27.2″
    Hartford/BDL 25.0″

    Sweet Spot: Burrillville, RI 34.1″

  311. Also, is anyone concerned about the wind? Huge player here. Worcester eastward can see wind gusts from 50-75 mph (50 closer to worc. and 75 mph along the coast line). That could cause some serious damage with all the heavy snow. That’s what I’m not psyched about.

  313. And to think, if Boston barley makes it into the top 10 snow storms of all times this could be considered a bust. LOL

  315. People should not be on the roads late aft. tomorrow in the cities period. we don’t need another 128 parking lot ala ’78.

  317. The Accuweather peeps must be in bunker-mode. Not a word out of them today. They must all be sweating it out over N.Y.C.

    We’re heartier up here – bring it on!

  318. I was just looking at the 2/11/2010 “Snowicane” storm forecast. That was supposed to
    Be a slam dunk blizzard for Boston and we got rain. Are we past the “bust window” on this one?

  320. TK if you are out there my brother Mr. Explorer is trying to add comments but it keeps saying “waiting for moderation.” Can you please allow him to join??? He’s a weather nut just like me!

  321. I Wonder if Cantore has arrived.
    We should all visit him enmass.

    I did that once when he was here for a storm.
    He was in Natick and I drove out there in the snow and visited with him.
    He took me in the truck and showed me around. He is OK in my book.

    1. I actually went to the headquarters in Atlanta and shook his hand as he was coming out, there wasn’t any tours so we got lucky

    2. We had a young Texas gal chasing with us this year who was all nuts about Cantore, as if he was the Bieber of the weather world, lol. One of our gang had his cell phone number and called him up, with our cameras rolling, and gave her the phone. We were impressed that she didn’t actually pass out, or tear knee ligaments from jumping around so much. He was a total sport and talked with her for a few minutes and gave her great encouragement to study weather in school. Last I heard she was trying to get in the OU met program. Good guy.

  322. HI EVERYONE I AM AROD BROTHER AND A WEATHER FREAK LIKE HIM!! THIS IS THE ONE WE HAVE BEEN WATING FOR SINCE WE HAVE BEEN KIDS!!
    I AM A LONG TIME FOLLOWER FIRST TIME WRITER!!

  323. OS,

    Mike Siedel posted a picture on twitter with Jim on the airplane up to Boston. I think hes probably just arrived somewhere

  325. Just for kicks, my predictions:

    Boston, 26.8″
    Worcester, 35″
    Providence, 37.5″
    Sweet spot: Westwood, 39.2″

    (Though I kind of want to, I just can’t bring myself to type any numbers over 40″… Too terrifying!)

  327. I found this from the CDC and thought it might help

    If the power is out for less than 2 hours, then the food in your refrigerator and freezer will be safe to consume. While the power is out, keep the refrigerator and freezer doors closed as much as possible to keep food cold for longer.

    If the power is out for longer than 2 hours, follow the guidelines below:

    For the Freezer section: A freezer that is half full will hold food safely for up to 24 hours. A full freezer will hold food safely for 48 hours. Do not open the freezer door if you can avoid it.

    For the Refrigerated section: Pack milk, other dairy products, meat, fish, eggs, gravy, and spoilable leftovers into a cooler surrounded by ice. Inexpensive Styrofoam coolers are fine for this purpose.

    Use a food thermometer to check the temperature of your food right before you cook or eat it. Throw away any food that has a temperature of more than 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

    1. If I think power will be out for a long while, I put my food from the fridge that I won’t be using into my freezer and move freezer stuff to a cooler with ice and cook anything I can on the grill as it thaws. Then I do not open the freezer. All food from fridge I will use also goes into a cooler.

  328. Ok 12z’s are in.

    Here we go-

    Boston, Worcester, Providence Metro areas. Light Snow possible in the morning little or no accumulation. Snow intensity increases in the afternoon hours and by 5pm the snow should be moderate to heavy. 3″ by sunset. Heavy snow through the nighttime hours. Snow should be done in all but extreme eastern coastal location by noontime. Partial Sun will be out inland later in the day. Winds gusts out the ENE/NE 25-40mph inland. 40-60 mph along the coast. Snowfall amounts 18-24″ Southwest Boston Suburbs are an area for potential enhanced snowfall up to 24-28″.

    Hartford Metro 16-20″
    Springfield Metro and CT River Valley of MA 12-16″
    Berkshires 8-12″

    Coastal locations should see ratios 10:1 or so. Inland about Climo of 12:1

        1. ECMWF has accumulating snow done by noon and accumulation in Boston post 18z. GFS similar. Only NAM holds on into the evening. There could be lingering light snow at the shore into the late afternoon, but not in in the 495 to Worcester belt. Don’t see it.

          2. When does the wind die down? Or rather, even if it stops accumulating, how much blowing and drifting do you foresee?

      2. Experienced forecasters are the worst in these situations because so much has to go just right to get huge amounts that it runs counter to years of experience and education.

  330. I just got called into the the owners office. They want me to make a call on work tomorrow. We have 350 employees from NYC to Maine. That’s some pressure right there.

    3. Closed – I never get what any employer thinks he/she will get out of a few hours when a person is anxiously watching out the window

  334. Just read that two mets re upping the totals for Merrimack valley, anyone have any ideas on why this would be happening now? Way could have changed in model runs not trying to sound dumb, just don’t get it

    1. No chance if precip shuts off my noon. Instead of a 36 hour event, it would be a 26 hour event if JMA’s forecast verifies. I think a good chunk of the area will be stuck in moderate to heavy snow at noon and not tapering off until late afternoon/early evening due to slow forward progress of storm.

  341. SUPERMARKET REPORT.

    Went to 4 stores (don’t ask me why):
    Shaw’s = zoo
    Russo Brothers (Watertown) = cross-checking moves required
    Costco = armored batallion required
    Marty’s Liquor = not too bad

      1. Oddly, Roche Bros. in Millis wasn’t bad at all at noon. Busy, but I managed to grab a register with no line.

        1. Oh no! I have to run over to Walmart in a few minutes to grab some extra socks and gloves for the hubby. Totally not looking forward to this trip!

    2. Longshot – russos is one of our very favorite places but at its best it’s crazy busy

      Friend said Roche Bros in Wellesley was lined up down the aisles to check out

    1. uh oh! Storm going out to sea, ha ha!

      It actually does show 30 inches Hadi because snow ratios will be a tad higher than 12:1 for many locations just away from the coastline for the majority of the storm.

  346. Dreading Big Y in walpole after work, gonna try and scoot out a little early to beat the after work rush. Its not usually crowded in there though

  348. Hey Vicki could u put me in?

    Worcester- 37.3
    Boston-31.1
    Providence-32.5
    Sweet Spot- Holliston- 40.0 inches

  349. Hey Longshot, did you go to the liquor store before busting out you’re wrestling moves in the grocery store?

    I’m going to Honey Farms while everyone is trying to find a parking spot at Price Chopper. Hope I’m the only one thinking like this!

    1. That’s more like it:) And it’s ridiculous how weak the NWS out of Taunton is. They update Albany way more often than they update Taunton. At least do your due diligence during an epic storm and update for crying out loud!!!

  352. My Son Works for The Mass Dept of Public Health and they are
    contemplating shutting down tomorrow.

    If the state closes, I’ll be OFF tomorrow!!!

    1. That’s a widespread 3-4 ft. A bit overdone but someone is going to reach close to 40 inches! I do not feel this storm shuts down from Worcester eastward until after dark on Saturday evening.

    2. more eye candy!

      How about that really long band right off the coast in Maine. They’ll be able to look at their snowstorm right off the beach – bummer.

    1. uh oh !!

      We are not directly on the water, perhaps a 1/4 mile inland, however a tidal marsh is at the north end of our street and the best storms turn that into a white capped lake.

  355. Message to: Vicki/retrac/Sue

    Vicki, I did pass by Roche Bros and the parking lot was insane.
    retrac, wherever you go now, hockey/wrestling moves requried.
    Sue, best of luck!

    1. my daughter and family went down to Humarock for the day and stopped at the Target in Hanover for non-perishable food, etc. and said it was very quiet. I was surprised

    2. I survived my Walmart trip and I have to say it wasn’t nearly as bad as I thought it would be. The place is an absolute mess but I was in and out in no time. Winning!

  357. Perhaps I am wrong in this – should everyone continue calling this a “historic storm” before it has begun? Maybe it should be “this has the potential to be a historic storm”. I am not saying we shouldn’t take precautions – not at all. Just the wording. Aaah, maybe I’m just being finicky, like my cat! 🙂

    1. You can label it as you wish but when all is set and done, it’s likely this storm will be like nothing you have never seen before 😀

        1. Also sounds like another fav movie of mine – Tornado – when one of the characters says something like “the likes of which we haven’t seen in many a year!” Yeah, I think I have seen every tornado movie ever made! 🙂

    2. rainshine – I had the same thought. We’ve seen two feet plus and right now every station has us in the 24 or under category. Not saying we can’t or won’t get it but it seems like a mixed message

      1. Vicki…I read your response above. Start the prednisone right away concurrently with your antibiotics. Feel better.

        1. thank you Arod – dr said she wants to see if antibiotics will work first and to give it two days. I don’t mind since I’m nervous about the side affects you listed. I’m not sure anyone can handle a euphoric me 🙂

            1. haha – I won’t have any problem taking it but figure since she said wait 2 days I will and then I won’t drive my family nuts – well any more than my constant coughing already is

      2. Sometimes, like when the temp. goes below 0 degrees or above 90 degrees or when we get a lot of snow – there is so much, not worth measuring! It’s just a lot of snow!

        And feel better!

        1. That was the 15km version. The 30km and 60km versions have the 3 inch line more to the N&W to include
          the Boston area. 😀 Again, this is an experimental model.

          But I would be remiss if I didn’t report that this model
          Did have the storm early just like the Euro did, albeit
          a bit more off shore. But it HAD it.

  359. The only bummer about this storm is after it’s over, we won’t be able to get too excited about another snowstorm for a while because 6-12 inches will seem like a coating to us now.

  360. Funny there is a wood trail by my office I walk a few times a day. This last week I saw a lot of Spring-like activity…lots of birds chirping, squirrels, a chimpmuk, and a few deer! I noticed this afternoon you could hear a pin drop in the woods…not even a bird chirping anywhere. All the animals must be in hiding. 🙂

  365. Hurricane Force Wind Warning south of Long Island over the Atlantic Ocean. This thing really is looking like it is going to turn into a snow bomb.
    Waiting for watches to be replaced by warnings.

  367. One thing that I will be looking forward to is any thundersnow – which I am sure will occur during the height of the storm. I doubt I will be getting much sleep Fri. night!

    1. And the Snow Totals are in: Back off a bit more 😀
      DOWN to only 36 inches or so for Boston. 😀

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

      Wind gusts at 36 Hours: (this is incredible!!!!)

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020718&time=PER&var=GUSTM&hour=036

      Water equivalent:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020718&time=INSTANT&var=WEASDI&hour=072

      Radar Reflectivity:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020718&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=036

      That is some pretty intense SNOW!!!

  374. Weather Central’s WXCMicrocast which is their proprietary model in the same way of WSI’s RPM has a jackpot of 55 inches in Concord NH. For you Tom it is dumping 38″ in Weymouth! And for you Arod it clears out west of Worcester by 9am, east of Worcester after 2pm….

    I am just so unable to reconcile any of this…..does not compute in my small brain.

    1. After 2 for Worcester perhaps, but it will hang tough along the I-95 corridor well into the afternoon and early evening hours:)

      1. I can’t link it. I would have some real issues with people who write the checks. There is a reason you never see that model anywhere but for private client group and media customers…wish I could!

  379. Can anyone give me the most likely time frame?

    First Flakes / Flurries:
    Consistent Light Snow:
    Moderate to Heavy Snow:

  382. HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/…

    * A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY…WHICH WILL POSE THREATS
    TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY.

    * BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT…RI…AND E/SE MA.
    WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

    * FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING…HIGH WIND WARNING
    CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS
    OF AROUND 60 MPH.

    * STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP
    10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES…UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.
    BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO
    AROUND 5 FEET.

    * TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY
    FRIDAY…BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE
    INTO SATURDAY.

  383. Birds are getting their last bites out at my bird feeder, no squirrels. my cat is in the closet and going bonkers. post my snow predictions this evening. the cat has spoken 😀

  385. To JMA: I’m not sure if my reply to you earlier went, and I’m too lazy to scroll all the way back and check until after I have my caffeine IV put in. 😉

    I loved the description you gave of convective feedback. I’ve always wanted to use a nicely worded one for people land could never really come up with it, so please allow me to use your description to inform others. It’s spot on. Thanks!

    And looking forward to your thoughts throughout this.

    1. TK no problem at all. Clean up the couple of typos. Fall should be false. No credit needed. Believe me I learned from a lot of people who were kind enough to share their knowledge with me. Feel free to email me with any questions.

      God I am feeling like the wimp in town right now with my snowfall amounts but I am going for an average of a 22″ snowfall in major metro areas of Eastern SNE with big winds more than 24 hours out and still I feel underdone compared to the rest….

      1. That is an average too! I got higher amounts in the ranges and enhanced amounts in banding wording too. Still for some reason I feel naked here!

    2. He posted at 10:30 am and your reply post went up at 11:03 am. Still liked your B’s pick last night.

      1. Longshot… Yeah I typed that about 15 seconds before Montreal scored the 1st goal. 🙂

        JMA… Thanks!

  387. Finally the NWS has come up with it’s projected snow totals. I’m in agreement with a general 24-36 inches with an isolated 40 inch amount.

      1. I think we will begin to see this more often than you think. Climate Change (I will NOT call it global warming) will continue to contribute greatly to super storms.

        1. Is this the same climate change that promised no more winters, or the new version where winters get worse? 🙂

  390. First time since the post Christmas storm of December 2010 with blizzard warnings posted for a good chunk of SNE. That was the last time I gave a 4 and this storm is looking to be a 4 as well since most places will exceed the 20 inch mark. Southeastern parts of SNE I am going with a 3 since I don’t think they exceed 20 inches.

  391. Updated snowfall accumulations for this storm: 4-8 inches Nantucket through Outer Cape Cod, 8-12 inches Martha’s Vinyard, 8-16 inches Mid Cape, 10-18 inches Upper Cape, 18-30 inches elsewhere with banded amounts of greater than 30 inches not impossible.

  392. TK. Did you get my message about my brother Mr. Explorer? His messages aren’t crossing over, awaiting moderation.

    1. I’ll get right on it! 🙂

      Busy busy day around here. On top of this had some errands to run with my mom. We’re all set now and other than being at work until 2PM tomorrow I will be off through the rest of the storm and able to update frequently.

  393. Longshot…

    The comments went to moderation because there was a typo in the email address and the program recognized it as an unknown address of course. 🙂

    I approved the comments and they should all appear now.

  398. NOTE TO ANYONE WITH COMMENTS IN MODERATION

    If there is a typo or a change in the email the comments will go to the moderation folder. And anybody that is commenting for the first time will also go there. It’s just the way the program is designed. 🙂

    Please be patient as once again the spam bots have nailed me (they cycle through doing that) so there are many messages sitting there – 99% of them spam. So I have to weed through to find the legit ones and that takes a little time.

    Thanks everyone! 🙂

  401. Those snowfall totals NWS is projecting quite impressive and something we may not see for a while.
    Yes credit to The Farmers’ Almanac although off with the timing by a bit they did call for major northeast snowstorm with amounts exceeding a foot with blowing and drifting of snow.

  402. Tough call for immediate coastal SE towns on school tomorrow as temps near immediate coastline may not make for bad roads from 7am to early afternoon. Even the Jan 05 blizzard had a mix in Marshfield during the first several hours of the storm, then when the storm really deepened, all weather heck broke loose.

  406. I am on the road today so I have not been able to see the GFS. Is it something we have to worry about?

  407. Noticed the lightning map is showing action over the Florida Panhandle and the eastern Gulf. Is this action associated with our southern storm or is this something else? The reason I ask is if it’s our southern storm it seems to be almost a little far south and east right now.

      2. Those storms are indeed associated with our southern stream storm however the convection you see is just a tail from the center of circulation which is quite a bit north from what you’re seeing. Can anyone post the national radar? This will help you depict where the center of circulation is in association with both the northern and southern stream storms.

  408. Just listened to Pete B. Pete is probably a good forecaster but sometimes his presentation skills aren’t always the best. His delivery was disjointed to say the least but he has a broad 16-24″ on his map with pockets of 30″. Interestingly he dropped the pockets of 30″ in his am forecast and said so, but brought them back just now.

    He also called for mixing further up the Cape and coast than most, stating that mixing “could” reach Boston. He also thinks it ends earlier on Sat (noon time) than other mets.

    2. JMA suggested this. I don’t think we see 20-30 inches of snow if snow shuts down by noontime. That would make it a 24 hour storm and most of the snow doesn’t get going in earnest until nightfall. To me the storm doesn’t look to clear the coast until late in the day or early evening. We’ll have to watch to see if the storm stalls and makes its loop. That to me is a huge wildcard!

  409. The GFS should be discounted at this time. It’s been all over the boards. The NAM and EURO has been most consistent and thus a blend of the EURO/NAM is prudent. Widespread 24-36 inches is still expected with isolated 40 inch amounts.

  410. HI ALL THIS IS MY FIRST TIME COMMENTING ON HERE. I AM A LONG TIME FOLLOWERER! I AM AROD’S BROTHER. I AM GETTING READY FOR THE BIG ONE! I THINK WE ARE ALL IN FOR A HISTORIC STORM THIS TIME AROUND! EXCITING STUFF TO BE SURE!!

    1. Welcome Brother! We’re definitely getting the big one. You and I have been waiting for this since we were in diapers!

  411. Anything from Matt Noyes today? I haven’t checked myself..(my wifi connection has been funky all day).

      1. Thank Arod….agreed…see my post later to your request about the radar

        I like the way things seem to be setting up.

  412. Marshfield early release tomorrow, 11:50am for me.

    I think thats a good call.

    I predict that when its 2pm tomorrow and some areas dont have a lot of accumulating snow because the bl temps closer to the coast will be near 32F and with the solar brightness of the day, a lot of the general public will be saying, another bust.

    They just have no idea whats coming after dark tomorrow night.

    I’m so happy we get tomorrow in for a school day. 🙂

  413. Can anyone post the link to the national radar so we can see where the northern and southern stream storms are currently located?

      1. Ugh! Can’t open link from work. Someone posted a link to the national radar and was indeed able to open it.

        1. LOL….we both work in Health Care and must have the same firewalls…That’s why I bring my own Netbook into work and use that for this type of stuff 😉

  414. I have not seen much from Matt Noyes today

    GFS is not going to be correct. Its a NAM/EURO blend. All systems go!!

  415. Almost just fell over, reading one of the models on channel 5. Must be the NAM.

    Boston : 38.8 in, Marshfield : 34.3 in.

  416. I got it! Check this out. Look at these two beasts merging!

    Looks like center of southern stream storm is located over central Georgia and moving northeast. The northern branch is over the midwest and ready to transfer its energy to the carolinas and explode once the southern jet hits the coast!

  419. I think my kids are tired of hearing me talk about ’78, this should be a memorable one for their generation. Any time you get out of school early or have school cancelled before the first flakes fly amps up BIG TIME anticipation and gets the kids juiced for a major (epic?!?) snow storm.

    If it all goes as planned, at least one of those kids will be hooked for life on weather and be forecasting to some of us in about 20 years.

  420. Remember the Dec 9, 2005 storm ? A couple hrs of crazy snow with hurricane force winds on the Cape. Thats what my mental image is of his storm, except it lasts for several hrs instead of a couple. Marshfield got 5 inches in 2 hrs with thunder/lightning.

  421. I’m putting on the heat tomorrow in my house when I get home at noontime and I think I’m setting it really high. I cant imagine we make it through Friday night with power.

    2. We are too The supermarket my husband stops at on his way hime from work to is a little out of the way place in wayland. They are closing at 6:00. And opening tomorrow at 10:00. Normal hours 7-9. Gotta be running out

  422. On TV, besides Barry, Harvey is the best. Just watched him. He pointed out not to let the guard down tomorrow. He showed Logan’s high at about 34F, he had Marshfield at 38F and pointed out that before tomorrow evening, the snow may not accumulate a lot.

    1. And because the snow will not accumulate during the day much, I’m not sure how we receive 20-30+ of snow if the storm is going to wind down around noontime on Saturday as JMA and TK has suggested. This storm I bet doesn’t wind down until Sat. evening sometime.

      1. And instead of a 36 hour event it sounds more like an 18-24 hr event. TK, why is the timeline seemingly shrinking as it typically does?

        1. I’m not sure we see 2 inches per hour for twelve straight hours. Accumulating snow will likely occur however through mid midafternoon. Heaviest snow winding down late morning and last flakes to fly around sunset.

  423. Heading out from work shortly to run a few errands and too see what the battleground (supermarkets) look like. Have to check in on my dad, etc. Should be back on blog about 7:30 or so…just in time for the latest forecast to have this thing go out to sea…(ducking and only kidding)!!!

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