Making The Hit List

380 Comments

5:42PM

We are on Mother Nature’s hit list with a storm that may make the top 10 or even top 5 “hit list”. Southeastern New England is going to be dealt a serious blow with this major winter storm that is just about to get its act together.

For the purposes of keeping this discussion on the shorter side, there is not much to add and I will just detail the major points of the upcoming storm and skip the discussion about the days after, just covering those in the updated forecast that will follow.

I will attempt a shortened post on the 35th  Anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978 later this evening.

Just the facts…

Blizzard Warning 6AM Friday through 1PM Saturday for most areas except portions of north central MA and Nantucket Island. Winter Storm Warning for these locations.

A blizzard is defined as winds of 35 MPH winds or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile due to heavy falling and/or blowing snow for a period of 3 hours or more. These conditions will take place over a large portion of the region Friday night into Saturday.

Storm track: Northeastward from the waters south of New England to the waters east of New England between Friday morning and Saturday night, possibly stalling for a time.

Mixing: Yes some mixing with rain is still possible over the immediate coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands, hence the slightly lower projected totals there. But even there by mid storm it will be all snow.

Wet or dry snow? Wetter where mixing occurs and on the immediate shoreline to start, dry and fluffy elsewhere, then becoming drier and fluffy all other areas during the storm.

Start time: Ocean-effect snow showers may reach eastern MA around or after midnight or in the early hours of Friday morning. Storm’s snow will start light during Friday morning then grow steadier and more moderate into the afternoon and moderate to heavy by late afternoon.

Peak time: All of Friday night and well into Saturday morning when snowfall rates of up to 2 and even 3 inches per hour may occur.

End time: It may take all day Saturday to taper off but all snow should be done by early evening except lingering ocean-effect snow showers possible over parts of Cape Cod.

Accumulation (inches): 4-8 Nantucket through Outer Cape, 8-16 Mid Cape & Martha’s Vineyard, 10-18 Upper Cape, 18-30 elsewhere with a few 30+ amounts possible.  IMPORTANT not to focus on the top number in the range. The large range is to cover the fact that much of the snow will be dry and fluffy and there can be great variability due to local effects (elevation, ocean-enhancement, etc.). Also, blowing and drifting will be considerable and will assure that very few areas end up with level snowcover when this is over anyway.

Coastal flooding: 2 to 3 feet of storm surge flooding is possible especially on north-facing and east-facing shorelines at high tide times Friday night and Saturday morning. Some property and shore road damage is possible.

Wind: Starting out east to northeast and increasing to 10-30 MPH during the day Friday, shifting more northerly with time, 25-45 MPH inland and 35-55 MPH higher elevations and coast with gusts 45-55+ MPH inland and 55-75+ MPH higher elevations and coast.

Power outages: Isolated to scattered. Not expecting widespread ones because much of the snow will be dry and not stick to the trees and power lines. This may be less the case on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands which may have wetter snow longer. Leafless trees also lessen the chance of trees coming down.

Lightning & thunder: Not out of the question that some occurs during this storm. It can be fairly common with intense winter storms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT:  Becoming cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers possible east coastal areas around or after midnight. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow develops, light and spotty then light and steady morning, growing moderate to eventually heavier at times during the afternoon. Mix/rain possible immediate coast especially south of Boston and Cape Cod/Islands. Highs 25-35 northwest to southeast. Wind E to NE 10-30 MPH, strongest near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Stormy. Moderate to often heavy snow except mix/rain parts of Nantucket and Outer Cape eventually changing to snow. Blizzard/white-out conditions often occurring. Rapid snow accumulations except in mix/rain areas. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal and higher elevation areas. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in all areas.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Blizzard conditions including heavy falling, blowing, and drifting snow to start the day, with gradual lessening of this during the day. Additional significant snow accumulation (see above for numbers). Temperatures steady 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH inland and 35-50 MPH coast with higher gusts in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT:  Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Lows around 10. Wind NW 15-35 MPH diminishing overnight. Additional blowing and drifting snow.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM light snow/mix/rain. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 37.

380 thoughts on “Making The Hit List”

    1. Sometime from Tomorrow evening to early Saturday AM. Can’t put an exact time on it. 4-8 PM. Somewhere in there, perhaps a bit later??

      BUT even if not blizzard conditions, you will know it’s a snowstorm, certainly
      by the evening commute if there is one.

      My boss just called. Our Office is officially closed.

      Governor has declared a stat of Emergency commencing at NOON tomorrow.

    1. As TK alluded to, the snow won’t wind down until sometime Saturday evening. This snow is not going to shutoff by noon-2 pm as JMA suggests. It’s a long duration event.

  8. Thank TK. GReat Job.

    We knew you would come around. 😀

    OK, so are we really going to get a snowstorm? Really????

    You mentioned wet at first, especially, near the cost.
    Here are the snow ratios from SREF.

    Near the beginning of storm 1PM FRiday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013020715/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f027.gif

    7PM Friday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013020715/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f033.gif

    7AM Saturday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013020715/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f045.gif

    1PM Saturday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013020715/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f051.gif

    These Ratios seem Low to me.

    Thoughts? TK are these any good or do they Blow?

    1. actually some of the ratios depicted were up to 20:1. I think that may be overdone except for our far northern and western zones, but a good chunk of the area may experience 15:1 ratios while the coast and eventually the cape average around 12:1 when all is set and done.

  9. I currently have plans to drive from Millis to Worcester at 3:00 p.m. on Saturday. How realistic is the hope that I won’t have to cancel?

    1. Living out there in the sticks, you shouldn’t have too much of a problem,
      Unless the MAX NAM numbers are realized. During the Feb 69, 26 inch event
      I had no trouble driving from Millis to Mt. Wachusetts. 😀 😀

    2. I would guess normally about 50-60 min drive. Sat could be twice that easily depending on the roads. The Governor just gave aspeech and is essentially asking everyone to stay home.

      1. My daughter works downtown at the Pru and takes T everyday and when I texted her she thought I was kidding.

        1. How can they do that. There’ll barely be accumulation. Many will be literally stuck. There’s no way my son can leave and I am certain he’s not alone

  12. Thanks TK. It is going to be a busy 24 hours + for us public works folks, and you weathermen (& ladies).

    Folks, be sure to give the plow drivers plenty of room, and keep in mind that many or most will be out straight from Fri AM to Sat PM.

    3. Well said. Like myself I will probably be clearing snow till Sunday. Let us do our job so we can keep you safe. These will be tough conditions to work in. This will be the biggest storm I have worked since being at the hospital. I don’t think this thing fizzles. Quite frankly were heading into a dangerous situation. Stay home with your families and enjoy them, a lot of us including myself won’t be able to. I am nervous about leaving mine, but its part of my job. We will have all hands on deck for this one.

      1. Never thought I would say this but glad he is gone. I loved him, awesome goalie. But I had a problem with him walking away from his team and fans. Good luck to him.

            1. Cant argue there. Neck is feeling the best today, did a ton of lifting today. No way I can escape the storm as its to big. Stay safe.

                1. Just to moved to Westwood so I do not recognize him. Be safe with that neck. Just remember, your neck may feel good during times of activity but you may pay the price a day or two later. Just make sure to ice your neck when you can and take ibuprofen around the clock to avoid exacerbations.

  15. It’s just about time for now casting plus I also think it quite possible to be snowing into sat night,, will c

    1. I believe it. I just don’t get it. Son works till 6:00. And I know plenty who work with him do too. They have no other way to get home. And they work for the state.

      2. Anytime a state of emergency is declared I think they come or on standby. Tk does your gut tell you that when all is done this storm could match the blizzard of 78 or rival it. I have a strange feeling there will be destruction along the coast. I hope that feeling is wrong.

        1. A few areas will see similar snows.

          Sandwich and Scituate are in a bit of trouble.

          The remainder of the coast will not see the magnitude of destruction experienced in 1978.

  22. The gov said by noon ALL vehicles should be off the road. He didnt say in Boston. Does that mean statewide ?

    2. Yes, that’s what he is requesting. I thought it was funny that Menino told everyone to use the T and then Patrick told everyone the T would shut down at 3:30.

    3. He said if there not he will shut the roads down. But he thinks most will heed the warning. Logan open but no flights coming or going starting tomorrow night. Wouldn’t that make them closed.

      2. No, it doesn’t really. You can still go out to the airport and make ticket changes, buy new tickets, etc. Just no flights.

  25. We will all be fine. We are all hardy New Englanders…snow all you want…I’ve got a 28″ gas powered beast that is no match for what you got. Bring it already!!!

  27. Its about time my school canceled classes. i was starting to worry.
    now im thinking a general 1.5-2.5 feet (18+ inches )eastern and central mass. with the highest amounts inside of 495 down into interior southeast mass up to the northshore…
    10-16 inches south coast, coastal southeast mass down by the canal. ., 6-10 outer cape cod and 3-6 nantucket.( still need to watch the rain line how far it goes)
    and of course the springfield area up through ct river valley will see less
    blizzard conditions will be felt across all of eastern mass. even the cape, snow starts around 9am tomorrow. lighter stuff might start around 4 to 5 am.

    road conditions of a 1-5 scale. a 5. for all of southern new england. a 4 for the cape tomorrow afternoon but be off tomorrow night as it changes over to a 5.

    im gonna watch the snow come up from the marshland and build 6 foot snow drifts in my back yard.

    2. Matt I think your cape total may be way, way to low. Even if it has a mix the mix won’t last for the whole storm. Somewhere on the cape hits 20 inches. I’m going to guess Pembroke, Hanover, Marshfield and scituate get more snow than Boston. I’m going with 30 inches for above towns and 20 inches for Boston. That may be low. I really think we have huge totals down here.

  28. The radar is looking really impressive and freakish! This storm is really going to be energized and vertically stack which will indeed slow its progression and stall out! I don’t think the mets are really focusing on this scary possibility!! I would not doubting some areas hitting 40+ inches!!!

    1. totally agreed. I think some are under estimating that this will be a very long duration event. It’s not a 18-24 hour storm. First flakes (from the storm) start at 9 a.m. and last flakes may not fall until 7 p.m Saturday evening. As low becomes vertically stacked, a cut off low tries to re-organize causing a stalling of the low pressure system. How long it stalls for is the wildcard and in question, thereby, locking in the heavy snow for eastern sections possibly longer than currently modeled!

    1. Won’t be needed…I’ll slip into a post plowing marathon sleep for days forget about everything until monday coma extremely easily after this one.

    1. Can’t lie, the nightmare has come across my mind once or twice, okay three or four times since it first came into the discussion

          1. Refer to radar above :D. When you’re gut tells you something may go wrong, just have a look at the national radar.

  32. The only monkey wrench will be dry slotting if dry air wraps into the center of circulation. Other than that, full all-out blizzard!

    1. I’ve never really understood the factors causing dry slotting. I know what it is, just not what triggers it.

      1. When storms deepen rapidly it has a tendency to wrap in dry air into the center of circulation causing dry slotting. Models are doing a better job in predicting this feature and it is not looking likely.

    1. I’m really anxious to see the NAM tonight Hadi. My biggest curiosity with it isn’t necessarily the awesome qpf, rather it’s closer to the coast track and how that’s matching up with the radar

    1. He is good ! I get a chuckle in his hurricane live shots when he goes into the biggest wind tunnel a downtown area can create ( like last Aug/Sept in New Orleans ) and gets taken every which way.

      2. I still can’t believe those two maps O.S.

        I take back all of my complaining for the past two season. I would make a generational storm trade for two lame seasons anytime.

        1. I think I got that backwards……..

          You know what I mean….

          That’s what four days of refreshing blogs and models will do.

  42. Parts of scituate are being told to evacuate because we may not be able to get to you. I had a buddy who lived in the sandhills section on the water. Let me tell you I was there during storms and they get pounded.

    2. Yes and on WATD, they are advising an area up by Humarock by the North River to voluntarily get out by tomorrow evening.

      2. WATD…one of the best local stations in New England!! Altho I do miss Liz Raven in the 9-1 slot

  46. If anyone is interested ……….

    Facebook friend Taunton NWS, they are inviting all to give predictions for 5 locations across the region. As I recall, its Logan, Providence, Windsor Locks, CT, Worcester and Taunton.

  49. I am just glad the odds of a power loss don’t seem too great where I am…it we did, it would be the damn wind. 🙂

    1. Thanks OS, I love these radar simulations !! I think its clear tomorrow for a while will have some time when travel is possible.

    1. It will, can already see the digging at 12 hrs. I’m just hoping we dont trend closer to the coast for a track, as we did in the last 24 hrs on the Dec 29 bomb.

          1. All good ! This is headed for one amazing QPF run. I bet it challenges yesterday’s 48-60 inch projections.

  52. Some gas stations in Pembroke have run out of regular gas. We filled up. I had a 1/2 tank and cost me $61 to fill it. I guess that’s the negative of having a nice truck. And I love it.three weeks and I put 1,000 miles on it,ouch.

    1. Nice, our F150 has treated us so well since 2002 and pulled our various campers all over the place. Gas guzzler, unfortunately, but worth every millionth penny.

      2. My f150 has the echoboost. They say its the best on the market for gas mileage. I guess people swear they get 23 on the highway. Man it would have been good to play in the snow with my new toy.

      1. I love it Vicki. Very sharp looking truck. I’m getting a rhino liner put in probably april. The snow should pay for that. It’s such a smooth ride.

    1. Yes, it also looks like its headed for a track maybe even inside the benchmark, which is good since the NAM tends to run a bit mild.

      1. NAM snowfall map NOT consistent with temperatures at 850mb.
        Showing S**Tloads of SNOW south of that 850mb line.
        So I don’t know what is going on.
        QPF is MASSIVE!!!!

        This should be a 48 inch run! 😀

    1. I thought it was interesting in the discussion from Gray this morning on how they thought the NAM was picking up on a closer track which is pretty typical with really rapid development. Is that how you guys remember the write-up?

  69. Recall 12/29 storm came closer than even models had 12 to 24 hrs before with a similar disturbance west of it.

  71. at 36 hours has 40 inches of Snow “Just” North of NYC!!!! So close to the City
    Very close. City itself in at abut 20 inches. Sharp gradient going North of NYC. 😀

    1. Yup 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Of course, when Marshfield endures hours of tropical storm force winds and I’m powerless with air temps falling thru the 20s, I probably wont be so happy.

    1. Yes. Cant wait to see the snow projections. Probably enough to multiply by something like .3 or so and still end up with 20-25 inches.

    2. With a bombing storm, by the time the heavy precip hits our towns Charlie, it will be snow. Like the 12/29 storm, an early bout with rain may change to snow from……..south to north !!

  81. With the NAM inside the benchmark I’m worried about mixing, etc south of the city but then I look at the cold air banked up in Northern New England and I feel a little better. Look at the pressure up there too!
    CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
    BAR HARBOR CLEAR 5 -8 56 CALM 30.61R
    BANGOR CLEAR 4 -15 41 NE6 30.59R
    GREENVILLE N/A -3 -20 44 N5 30.41S
    MILLINOCKET CLEAR -5 -13 68 CALM 30.58R
    HOULTON CLEAR -10 -16 74 CALM 30.53S
    PRESQUE ISLE PTCLDY -13 -24 58 CALM 30.48S
    FRENCHVILLE PTCLDY -11 -20 64 CALM 30.46R
    CARIBOU PTCLDY -9 -18 64 CALM 30.52R
    BERLIN CLOUDY 5 -6 60 CALM 30.43F
    BURLINGTON CLOUDY 8 -4 58 CALM 30.49F
    HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 2 -10 57 CALM 30.50F
    NEWPORT* CLOUDY 6 -11 46 CALM 30.46S

    1. I think we’re ok Keith. I really do. Get by the initial mid 30s tomorrow and the light snow, mix, or rain, get to about 7 or 8 pm tomorrow night, and that bombing low has our coastal areas going at 2 inches per hour.

      1. Thanks Tom…you talked me back in off the ledge 🙂

        I know I’m going to probably lose at least one of my antennas (for my radio hobby) but they can be replaced when the weather gets better.

  83. I’m heading up to get some rest. I’ll try to give updates from Boston but it may be tough. Please everyone stay home and be safe. Best of luck to all of you. Enjoy.

    1. I know. This is the first time I’ve watched them in years only because Cantore is talking about Boston. I can’t stand their programming and just overall “thing” they’ve got going on. Sorry if I offend anyone on that.

  86. It actually looks like the NAM has resolved some of its overdone issues. These amounts look very plausible. Interesting on that run, northern NJ and just north of NYC are the bullseye for the storm. This was one of the wildcards for this area. Its gone back and forth between rain, snow, nothing, back to a few inches of snow, and now blizzard warnings

    2. Yeah, that’s 3′ for me. I wouldn’t complain.

      Funny how when these storms get so wound up, they just seem to blow themselves out in the end.

  91. I don’t know if someone see 40 inches of snow out of this but I would not be surprised to see if there are some 30 inch snow reports. There is really nothing left to do but just sit back and watch what this produces.

    1. I dying to watch that radar. It’ll be like Christmas for me except the gift opening will last all day and night and into the next morning.

  93. Well, watching the NAM run was exhaustive ! 🙂

    Thrilled to see this particular model even a bit closer on track. Dont think bullseye around tri state area will verify, max QPF set to be central Mass, eastward.

    Off to watch Celtics, cant wait for whatever tomorrow night brings. As far as daylight tomorrow, a lot of folks in the general public will be saying, what storm ?

  94. I would be bummed if nyc gets more snow than boston, imagine if the low weakens as it heads to boston lol since it eiol basically blow near nyc

  97. I’ll say it again…

    That storm over the G.L. is really healthy isn’t it. Normally they’re all dried out and ragged looking. I guess that’s all part of what makes this storm different right.

  98. TWC has NYC in the 12-18 inch range. They are going to be real close to the mix line. If they stay all snow I think there closer to the 12 than the 18. No way will this be a top snowstorm for them or come close to the record snowfall of 26.9 inches back on February 12th 2006.

  99. Hello all from Lyndon State College. Unfortunately I will not get to witness the true power of the beast, but we should still get good snows up here. We are pretty much on the line of 6-15″.

      1. Pseudo-Santa brought it in 1980. It was one of 2 board games produced (one for Boston, one for Chicago) for the ’78 blizzards. Very rare.

  101. Did you guys catch the whole NAM run and notice that the storm does three loops….one here and two in Atlantic Canada.

  107. I am here. Can’t go to sleep. All this excitement is keeping me up. Hope we are not disappointed with this storm

  108. Ugh… boy, am I dreading the ride home from work tomorrow. But after that, I can’t wait to watch it all unfold!

  109. Before anyone freaks out about the GFS, it does not do well with mesocale banning so it will not pick up on what NAM had. Look for track and placement vs. QPF.

  111. Is the storm still forecasted to stall out through the day on Saturday for coastal areas, including the Boston metro area?

  119. Harvey had 12-24″ all week and just went up on the low end to 16-24.” He seems a little more GFS oriented.

    1. Harvey changed to 16 at 5PM, but he does buy the Euro. He just applies his met. knowledge to all before he comes up with his #’s.

  122. sticking with what i posted earlier. will look again at the actual radar and satalite. and look and see what model is closest. and go from their. be on looking tomorrow morning. also will stop by my neibors place and see if she needs anything still and tell her if we loose power we can have her at our place. we have a great fire place in the living room and also we have a oilcan fireplace on the porch. we have a huge supply of wood and everything we also have 2 things of propane for the grill if the power goes out. 😀 we did it in 2011,2007 and 2003 when the power went out.

  123. Goodnight all. No need to stay up for the King tonight. The King spoke several days ago! We will all need the rest for tomorrow night’s fun!

    1. agreed. still being conservative on my amounts though until tomorrow then if they are still saying the same then i will put up the amount.

  125. I don’t have a link though you probably can find the model posted somewhere on Facebook. It has #’s similar to the NAM. And a bullseye of over 4 feet in the NW suburbs of Boston.

  129. TK, here is the RPM. Found right where you said it would be!

    https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/534933_532099353478238_1058939545_n.jpg

    Commentary to go with it:

    Chief Meteorologist Jamie Simpson
    Like This Page · 2 hours ago

    Here’s the scary thing. I mentioned below that one television meteorologist in Boston is calling for 40″ in Boston (again more than a foot more than their single-storm record), and this may be why. This computer forecast model has about 36″ in Boston and about 4 feet just west of there. The thing is, for winds to pull so much moisture off the near 40-degree ocean to produce this much snow, there is the risk of it changing to rain along the coast for a while. If he’s right, he should retire and wait for the hall of fame to call him.

    1. More from WxRisk:

      **** THIS IS JUST 12 HOURS BEFORE THE EVENT !!! Where is the consistency with American weather models ???

      Either the GFS model is going to be correct.. which means that this is not going to be a historic snowstorm for eastern and Central New England… and that northeastern jersey into the lower Hudson Valley is NOT going to see 30 to 40 inches of snow and neither is Boston or southeastern Massachusetts or Providence… OR the last 11 runs of the European model… the last 11 runs of the European ensemble model… as well as the last few runs of the NAM / RPM EURO / SREF / RGEM will be.

  132. Tk what do you think woburn will get out of this? I live in reading so whatever you get, i am around there lol, i really hope the heavy bands sets in north shore and not just sw of boston. It sems like north shore never gets jackpot IMHO

    1. I am in Reading for several hours 5 days a week so I spend lots of time in both places. With the most consistent guidance, a bit of experience and common weather sense, I am feeling 22-26 inches for Woburn. But with the drifting, anything 18+ isn’t going to matter too much unless for some reason we go over 30 (which btw is not entirely impossible). Either way you slice it, a whole lot of snow is coming up.

  133. Someone please if possible post the euro model when it comes out, the last model run i am goinn to look at before nowcasting mood turns on!

  134. Acuweather at 12″-18″ this morning. Pete’s at 16″ on the low end. Is there a downward trend starting………..?

    1. I think Pete’s low end has been at 16″ for a few days. He still calls for pockets of 30″

      Interestingly early this am, Melissa (BZ) put up a timeline snowmap showing Boston going just over 30.” Whether it’s real or not who knows.

      Right now

      1. Longshot the RPM model at our local NBC station is showing 30 inches for Boston and 27.4 for Worcester.
        24 hours ago the Worcester total was 36.4 on that model.
        I am thinking a widespread 18-24 inches with locally higher amounts and I would not be surprised to hear of some
        30 inch reports. I don’t see 40 inches at this point.

      2. Also, on the latest NWS post – 439 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013
        it now reads the following for pretty much most of the state;
        *ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.
        I believe it gave a range of 18″ – 24″ before this update

  135. Have to watch for banding features which are tough to predict where they setup shop which would create more snowfall for areas under it. Looking at the radar the southern stream system very impressive and even some lightning over the ocean by the Carolinas indicating this storm system is strengthening and will continue to strengthen as it heads towards the benchmark by the aka the sweet spot. The northern stream system will help to inject a little more energy.

  136. I don’t think I have heard any met calling for this to end before 4 PM Saturday and I think some say it will won’t end til 8 PM.

    The Blizzard Warning will be up til 1 PM Saturday.

  137. JJ, I don’t think that 40″ is will happen but the high pocket areas in MA like Dedham are the most likely.

    Did the last run of the Euro move ever so slightly east?

    1. Hi Longshot… In regards to EURO they showed the accumulations for that model here on our local NBC station in CT. Its showing about 22 inches for Boston. The model is showing 1-2 feet of snow for SNE. Of course there will be locally
      higher amounts.

  139. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=december%209%202005%20snowstorm%20cape%20cod&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.erh.noaa.gov%2Fbox%2Fclimate%2Fpns%2FDEC9_2005.txt&ei=otIUUb3WNuSQ0QHBmYH4Ag&usg=AFQjCNE-P63wGhNNgFyKXIqjayM5qlpxJw&bvm=bv.42080656,d.dmQ

    From the Dec 9, 2005 bombing low just S of New England. At the top of the report, check out the wind observed in SE Mass and on Cape Cod.

    I’m extremely concerned about a repeat of the wind with this event.

    FWIW, the detailed point forecast snow expectation at Logan is 33 inches and the 0z Euro has another bomb in the NE US in 10 days.

      1. Yes ….. It really caught my attention @ 11pm news last night. I think Harvey was showing 50-80 mph gusts along the coast.

        It may take 2-3 days to clear all sidewalks, parking lots, etc of all the snow, but the longer term impact could come from wind issues.

    2. Tom your bold prediction of a 20 inch snowfall for Boston is looking very good at the moment made back on the 1st of January.
      If everything pans out Boston will go from a snow deficit to a snow surplus.

  140. Well over a 1,000 bloggers in past few days and not one “WINTER IS OVER” response . What happened . It ain’t over til it’s over . Be safe enjoy .

  141. good morning everyone.

    Well, today’s the big day – be safe, enjoy it, remember it!

    Amazing how consistent the NAM has been. Even juicier this morning than 00z.

    The GFS will either prove a genius to cement it’s legacy as a total fool.

  143. This is from noaa.gov for Braintree. That’s 27 to 41″ in Braintree!

    7-DAY FORECAST

    Today Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Breezy, with a east wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

    Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

    Saturday Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 33 mph decreasing to 22 to 27 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

    1. Nope, thats ok.

      Logan might well get to 36-38F……..even 39F for a time late this morning, Marshfield could be 40F as well. Get the precip in this afternoon, start backing the winds and the temps will come down this afternoon slowly, before crashing during the night.

        1. Nope, I dont think the crazy amts forecasted assume much accumulation during today’s daylight hours.

          The snow totals are really the intense precip, falling as snow, that occur overnight, thru tomorrow.

          And, in our area, we’ll be piling it up from say 8 pm tonight to nearly noon tomorrow.

    2. I think, in our area, until this evening, it will seem like, whats up ???

      Dont worry, when the storm bombs, it will be snow, at outrageous rates overnight.

      My opinion is dont panic with the temps today. They will probably overperform.

    3. That’s been really apparent on the NAM runs. Might only be a problem for very early part of storm then forget about it.

  149. As I comented above, I am a little more focused on wind this am than snow. I am pretty sure (don’t quote me) that I saw someone put up a wind map on TV showing possible 80 mph gusts. Have to make sure all your vehicles are parked away from trees.

  155. Cape Hatteras, NC has a pressure of 29.49 inches which converts to 998 mb. Scary because, the energy infusion from the midwest system is hours away.

    Cape Hatteras has a due south wind, about the only ob with a S wind in NC, so low must be just west of them, which lines up nicely with radar/ satellite presentation.

  161. From WATD, 95.9 FM in Marshfield ….

    ” It is highly recommended that immediate coastal areas prone to flooding be evacuated.”

    Then …..

    ” Central Ave north of Newport St in Humarock is expected to be impassable after 7pm on Friday Evening. Residents are advised that police, fire and emergency personnel will not be able to travel safely in this area. “

  162. The NAM is bonkers with its snowfall amounts. I just saw the projection for here in CT and it is showing places coming in close to if not just exceeding 3 feet of snow. I think when all is said and done were looking at a general 18-24 inch snow event with locally higher amounts.
    Snow Index at a 4 with this event which is the second time I have given a 4. The other the post Christmas blizzard of 2010.

    1. Must have been a lot of thick dust on that 4 lever. 🙂

      Nowcasting radar, 3+ ft wont surprise me and I’ll wager that the models will slightly underpredict the lowest pressure the storm achieves. Perhaps this thing gets down into the 960s.

  165. 39 and rain in Philadelphia. Warmer than expected. Local mets are noting this. I see that it is 33 in Boston. Temps will come down, but I cannot imagine much accumulation here in Philadelphia. I do think mixing will lower amounts in Boston and along the coast. I am still going with my original prediction of around 12-15 inches for Boston, 18-20 in Providence.

    Can’t complain, at least my drive through Pennsylvania will not be too bad. Driving back to Boston tomorrow may be a different story.

    1. You must be referring to the immediate coastline in Boston, because it’s only 30 degrees in Brighton.

    1. Thanks for the update. It’s hit 40 where I am (west of Philadelphia). Cold rain, which started out as sleet. That’s a rather large temperature difference. There is usually a 3-5 degree difference between Phil. and Boston, but not 10 degrees.

      I’m hoping my forecast is correct (which it probably won’t be), because I have to drive back tomorrow. First part will not be the issue, it’s the second part that will be.

  170. Good morning all!

    * The East wind does not concern me in regards to something happening that was not expected. The east wind was expected early in the storm.

    * Don’t think this is a bust because it’s not snowing that heavy or not much is on the ground by early afternoon. This doesn’t get really serious until later today and beyond…

    * All is on track. I just issued an update but there are no changes. See you over there!

    * I’ll be mobile until about 3PM so my replies may be lacking. After that I’m here for the duration.

  172. Thanks, TK.

    The clouds are moving rapidly from southeast to northwest. Sky has that weird look to it – like something’s up. I will likely be posting today and maybe even tonight if we still have electricity. 50/50 on looking forward to this storm. As a weather lover, this is exciting. But otherwise, nervous about all the bad stuff that could happen. This storm is real and will be affecting us in a big way. So, my feelings are different than if this storm was hitting elsewhere. And my interest in summer storms is the same. I love reading and watching about tornadoes, etc. But when it is about to or has hit your home, one’s feelings would change. Fortunately, I have never experienced a tornado. I would love to see one in the distance – not hurting anyone or anything. But I guess that is why as a weather lover I and I guess all of us have to respect the weather, too. Off my soapbox, now – stay safe everyone!

Comments are closed.