The Week Ahead

334 Comments

8:06PM

After an eventful week weather-wise, it’s time for a break right? Well not really. The new week starts with a threat of some icing inland, the midweek is a watch period for a storm passing to the south, and next weekend carries the potential for another winter storm.

The first system will be a low pressure area cutting through the Great Lakes Monday and early Tuesday, redeveloping over northern New England and heading into eastern Canada. Enough cold air will be around for some snow/sleet/freezing rain well north and west of Boston to start out around mid morning to midday Monday, but eventually these areas will transition to rain. Mainly rain will fall elsewhere. Melted precipitation amounts will be limited to generally under 1/2 inch so that problems with roofs should be limited, since wind blew much of the snow off of them except in areas where snow was wetter (southeastern MA). Some street flooding will occur due to blocked drains. Drivers should use caution anyway as there will still be some very large snow banks and narrow streets. A gusty west wind is expected Tuesday with drier weather as broad low pressure moves through eastern Canada and exerts its influence down across the northeastern USA. At midweek, later Wednesday into Thursday, developing low pressure in the Southeast will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast. It appears this system will be too far south to impact New England but will be watched in case. Later in the week, especially next weekend, a larger scale trough is expected to move into the East and ignite storm development near the East Coast. It’s too early to tell how it will play out but there is some potential for a winter storm at that time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast by midnight then rising. Winds light variable through midnight then  becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain late morning through afternoon except starting as snow to sleet and freezing rain in the I-495 belt especially from the Mass Pike northward. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds late. Low 25. High 40.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun late. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 37.

WEEKEND: Winter storm possible.

334 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

      1. Yes no problems! We had heat, hot water, tv and wifi so it was a good experience compared to sandy.

        Thanks for the reassurance to start the generator in the middle of the storm. I would have waited until the storm passed. I have not experience that much adrenaline in a long time. That was crazy.

        I bought it Tuesday Night. No regrets!

  5. Just a report on driving conditions on I-95 in Connecticut last night. Atrocious. I have never experienced such fear driving as I did last night. It took 13 hours to return from Philadelphia. Philly was largely spared of the storm (perhaps an inch or so). New Jersey was mostly spared of Nemo’s wrath. I drove the Turnpike and Garden State Parkway. No problems whatsoever. I think from about Metro Park up to the New York state border you could tell from the plowing that anywhere between 8 and 14 inches had fallen. Road was entirely clear of snow and ice. Crossing the Tappan Zee and getting into Connecticut, driving was smooth and uneventful. Then the `fun’ began. Snow levels increased. Milford, Connecticut indeed has a massive amount of snow. From exit 21 through exit 93, I drove an average of about 25-30 mph. At times 5mph on a single lane of barely plowed I-95, at other times 40-45mph on sheets of ice and packed snow. I was driving my mother’s PT Cruiser (with new tires). Better than my VW Golf in the snow, but not great. I know how to deal with snow and ice, but this was white knuckles driving. I slipped (veering right and left) dozens of times. Used every skill I’ve learned about driving in the snow, including using the lower gears on the automatic (“3″ and “1″ – I hardly used “D” at all – too little control). I’m accustomed to manuals (never been an automatic guy) because I like the control it gives you. But, PT Cruisers are almost always automatic. Drove threw huge mounds of snow. Most of I-95 was down to two lanes, but parts were only one lane. Saw hundreds of stranded vehicles, some in the middle of the road, others to the side. Many exits had not been plowed at all, which meant that even if I wanted to get off the road (which I did) I couldn’t. I-95 in Rhode Island and Massachusetts was much better taken care of, and I actually saw crews working on widening the road. I did not drive much faster than 40-45mph because of ice patches and some snow. I saw very little snow removal activity in Connecticut, which is inexcusable. I feel terribly for those left stranded. I know this was a terribly difficult storm to deal with, but why would one state deal efficiently and effectively with I-95, while another lapses.

    2. Amazing. I know it was a bad storm but you’d think they’d have the highway in slightly better shape by then.. Glad you made it safely.

      1. Yes, as Longshot said, I count my blessings I made it in one piece. I felt terribly for those stranded. It was a helpless feeling, as stopping would not have been safe for anyone involved. Many of the stranded vehicles appeared empty of people, but some had people in them. It was a cold night and I’m hoping everyone made it through the night. My biggest issue with the Connecticut road crews is that some exits (!), most rest areas, and all service areas were basically unplowed.

  6. Hi all. What a weekend. I got home late last nigh, first time since 5am Friday. Had to be back in this morning at 7am and back at 5am tomorrow. Do you think I’m tired. No power since 9pm Friday and still wating. Cold house and tree damage. Lots of trees and wires down, saw downed phone poles as well. I have never seen so many tree trucks in Pembroke. Lousy job plowing here, usually very good. I can’ake it out by my pool as looks like I have damage. Very tough storm. Everyone kept thanking us at the hospital for all the snow removal. I can’t wait to read fridays posts. Hope all here faired well. No school here tomorrow. Good night. Were all sleeping in from
    Nt

    1. Get some rest John and hope you are able to recover from the storm soon. I’m sure people don’t thank you enough for the work you do, so .. thank you!

  7. If you have any kind of heart condition, don’t shovel; don’t watch the Celts game right now; and don’t turn on the B’s.

  8. Thanks tk. I meant to say were all sleeping in front of the fire. I’m finally getting the first floor warm. My son has a tent up so they’ll sleep that. I could sleep up stairs but I’ll sleep on the floor in front of the fire to man it, I want to keep them warm. Got to play with the truck just a tad tonight in the neighborhood tonight, it was fun.

  11. No school tomorrow.. Kinda happy I plowed 33hrs up here in methuen, shoveled my parents out today thought I was gonna die,and I’m in relative shape ( gym every morning) shoveling is just different lol

  12. Barry on his blog is suggesting a rain event next saturday in the Boston area. That wont be a good thing weighing down all this snow. Will see what happens.

  13. How can bb call for rain next weekend? EURO does not suggest this. I think it’s too premature and he’s just trying to keep people at ease. He could be right though.

  15. I did it again.
    At 7:15 I sent a text message to my friend saying “Bruins win 3-1 tonight…”

      1. For some odd reason I get these scores right a whole lot of times. I need to have that work for LOTTERY #’s, but for some reason it does not. 😛

  16. I went outside awhile ago to take out the garbage for tomorrow’s collection (I called Boston City Hall to confirm) and it is not too cold outside at all. It looks to be a mild week with rain events on Monday & Saturday before cold returns for next Sunday.

  17. Just curious…is Quincy’s power back on? I read in the paper today that the entire city went out Friday night.

    1. Our power in the Wollaston area of Quincy was off from 10:30 pm Friday – 10:30 pm Saturday. We drove around to run a couple of errands at around 6:30 pm on Saturday, and it seemed like every neighborhood in Quincy we passed through had power. Not sure who is out now.

    1. How can we say rain or snow about Saturday. Way too soon. I would love rain here bc it means snow for the ski resorts, but can’t argue with the euro ensembles right now.

  21. People were calling Friday’s event a rain or OTS a week before. Too soon with the way blocking is to say rain or OTS. Have to see how things play out.

    1. Meh, not enough colors on that map to excite me. Boy am I spoiled from this blizzard! A week ago I would have been thrilled at the chance for 3-6″

  26. GFS/NAM are on board for a small storm on thurs/friday timeframe. Although not really trusting either one at this point unless EURO comes along.

  27. gfs and nam are now saying a small event on thursday. nam of course over doing precipitation for ct and rd. .. i would like to see these models say this through out another cycle 00z-18z as well as the euro before i say there is a possible storm for thursday. weekend storm looks like a possibility but a probably lack of an area of high pressure could lead to an rain maker. if i was to say anything. 45% chance inside runner 40% out to sea 15% chance of a snow event

    1. I used to go to neww that blog stinks compared to here, I told that fellow he needs to get a new occupation

    2. You can Google the naming of NEMO. Much criticism of the naming and that particular name. Stories vary from mild to wild. Not sure I or anyone else knows whole story though I believe TK mentioned he has the inside scoop.

  30. Thanks tk lots of rain and temps close to 50 degrees, lots of melting today, it’s time to make breakfast and get the kids off to school and then off to work, have a good day and don’t forget your umbrella

  32. Not sure of the benefit of having school today in any of the MA communities under a WWA. I understand the reluctance of going to school later into June, but for most towns, I don’t think the combination of narrow streets and slick roads (and standing in the street at the bus stop) is a great mix. Please use extra caution driving around this morning, especially taking a corner on the secondary roads – there may be children waiting for a bus in unorthodox places.

  33. GFS NAM look to bring a light snow event Wednesday night Thursday for areas south of the pike. The weekend storm threat to me is the more interesting one at the moment. Just reading the discussion from Taunton and it looks like the EURO wants to develop a low pressure system on a cold front that goes by on Friday.

  34. A few thoughts…….

    It may be a cycle, it may be global warming, I dont know. However, just in the last few years alone, towns have lost power and for long periods of times to Irene, the late October snowstorm right after Irene, Sandy and now Nemo ( 🙂 still get a chuckle that it has a name). I think its time that we update our infrastructure and get a better way (underground lines ?) to keep power on, because I’m believing that these weather events are not going away any time soon, again either by a current cycle or global warming.

    Which brings me to storms lately. Look at what Nemo did…..a fairly progressive storm. It dropped comparable snow totals to the Blizzard of 78 in, is it fair to say, 1/2 the time. The Dec. 29 waterlogged storm, another very progressive bomb, big time QPF in about 8 hrs. Sandy, with its multi-inch rains, 7, 8, 9 inch event in the mid-Atlantic. Of course, these storms coming within an overall pattern of dryness, across most of the nation. A nation with huge precip deficits that occasionally is seeing the monster QPF events……Hmmmmm

    Lastly, nervous seeing trend for Wed. night and Thursday. Even 2-5 inches of wet snow for SE Mass would absolutely be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Whether it goes south and misses or its mild enough for a rain, I just hope that event does not happen.

    Gov. Patrick coming to Marshfield and Scituate today. 68% of Marshfield sitting in the dark, with local Marshfield Mariner reporting that NSTAR has told officials that there is “significant grid damage within remote areas of town.”

    Be careful out there all. The 2+ feet of refrigerant on the ground is keeping temps colder than modeled this morning with some light precip coming in.

    1. Tom I am with you on the underground power lines. People say its too costly upfront but I believe would definitely have a payback in time.

      1. Agreed; causes withstanding – let’s get the power underground.

        I am sure sending crews zig zagging across Canada/US is not cheap.

        Maybe target the towns that are frequent fliers for outages first and then move backwards, there must be a decent ROI at the top of the list.

        1. Undergrounding existing above ground wires costs approximately $1 million per mile. What do you think your electric bills would look like if you had to pay for that on all the roads in your town?

          My belief is that a real culprit for these large scale outages is the lack of adequate tree trimming and right-of-way clearance done by the investor owned utility companies. If there are no trees or branches above or near the wires to fall on them, then it is pretty hard for the wires to break. Because no one likes to see trees cut up or removed, I think the utility companies are gun shy about doing the clearance that needs to be done, and it can be expensive to do, and as long as there are no major storms, there is little incentive for the investor owned companies to do the work.

          If more tree trimming and right-of-way maintenance was done, I think you would see fewer outages. I bet if someone did a study of the number of outages that have occurred since the utilities were deregulated, they would find the overall number of outages has gone up.

          Where you have municipal owned utilities, they are not profit driven, and tend to do the things (like tree trimming) that are necessary to prevent wide spread outages, short of a disaster like the 2008 ice storm.

          1. Exactly – NSTAR went through here this fall and basically clear cut anywhere around lines. And no power loss this storm. However, individuals have to take responsibility too.

  36. Tom a question for up there in MA are there a lot of trees over power lines? We had that problem in CT with Irene and the October Noreaster and as a result there has been an aggressive effort with tree triming and getting those away from the power lines. I believe this has helped some but I do agree with you our infrastucture needs to be updated.
    To the Wednesday night Thursday storm POTENTIAL it looks to be a light event south of the pike but were at the point here there is no places to put the snow. There are communties here whose streets have not been plowed and people are snow blowing their own streets to get out.

  38. Anyone see the 069z gfs?? Got a huge storm 974mb next sunday coming right over Boston.Would be alot of rain..Not Good! However I think gfs maybe overdone and to far north. Will see

  39. Morning All.

    Going to be very busy today. Not sure how much I’ll be checking in.

    First thoughts:

    NAM wants to blast us on Thursday.
    Euro and GFS OTS.

    Question for all: NAM suffers from convective feedback so it overcooks precip,
    but what about the rest of it. It “usually” has been very good, especially within
    48-60 hours.

    I’m not totally convinced we can discount the NAM.

    Waiting to 12Z run.

    Have a great day all.

    Oh one more thing: Commute took about 10 minutes longer. Main problem,
    pedestrians in the street. 😀

    1. Old Salty the NAM in my opinion was good here in CT with the blizzard. The amounts of snow it was projecting on Friday
      morning were pretty close and only of about 2-4 inches. Other places like Hamden got about 2-3 more inches than what
      the NAM predicted.

  40. 0z and 12z are the ones to pay attention to. You hope that solution does not happen with the snowpack we have out there. Thankfully its only Monday and that is way out in the future and will most likely change.

  42. 28 and snowing a bit in Worcester. The roads are beginning to get coated. Snow is very icy – it’s not sleet yet but it seems like it’s trying to transition.

  43. As tjammer said – freezing rain here – temp on my side of Framingham is 25.2. Sanders are out enforce. I too am worried about the roads.

    We lost phone and internet last night but seem to have it back for at least now. You know you are in trouble when you call Verizon and tell the tech you do not have a dial tone and he asks if you ever had one. I said “you mean did I have one today” and he said – no have you ever had a dial tone on your phones.

    You really cannot make this stuff up.

  44. The reason power lines are not underground in the US is due to Electrical unions, they want the power to go out thus creating huge amounts of OT and money. I lived in Europe and all power lines are underground bc things don’t operate that way in Europe.

    2. Hadi a lot of Europe was rebuilt after WWII and at that point they had the opportunity to put the lines underground. Above ground was already the rule of thumb here, we of course didn’t have to rebuild and the expense of starting over as opposed to adding on is an area where there is still not good data. I am not seeing unions back when we began to build the grid thinking that lines should be put above ground for that reason.

    3. I know a ton of people in the nstar and phone company, not a true statement. These are the same people trying to restore power who have not slept.

    4. Hadi, your statement is 100% correct! And anyone that says otherwise either cannot comprehend this or have a special interest in the utility company $$$$.

      I know many in the electric utilities up and down the east coast. They all agree and acknowledge this privately.

      1. Coastal – we will agree to disagree. You may “know many” but the company my husband works for and the one I worked 34 years for before being laid off has 98% of the utilities in the United States and the majority of utilities worldwide as clients. That’s a few more than “knowing many” and spans worldwide and not nationwide. I would never accuse a person of not being able to comprehend or to have a special interest who didn’t agree with my opinion.

        I’m not saying that it would not be an improvement to have the lines underground – and neither are the utilities. They are saying the cost is astronomical and at the moment I don’t think the average person can absorb higher bills.

        1. By the way – the company does not have $$$ invested – it services the utilities whether lines are above or underground.

          1. Vicki it sounds like you must have someone close to you, that is union that works in the utility field. Am I correct?

            1. Again – wrong coastal – not one person but it would fit into your scenario wouldn’t it — that is if your scenario were accurate 🙂 which as I said it isn’t.

              2. I’m just giving you information coastal from a perspective of knowing the how the utilities/electric grid works. So if John is being typical union…..is having to discredit a person to prove a point typical non-union 😉

                1. I love you Vicki, make no mistake about that.

                  So it appears you know a lot about the utilities/electric grid?

          1. Coastal just so you know I’m not the only union person on here. I make great money and earn every penny. All the union people including me have been busting our ads all weekend trying to get things back to life. How about the teachers union coastal, there bad to I guess. Maybe your jealous because we Make damn good money, we have great benefits. I’m speaking for all unions.

            1. Teachers Union is horrible and extremely outdated. It is more about politics and a lot less about the education we give to our children.

              1. I made more this weekend, trust me. Your up, your down what gives with you. Don’t you do some kind of electrical work. I’m not going to get into it again with you I’m beat. The union is the best thing that happened to my family. I provide and take awesome care of my wife and son. And when I work overtime I earn every penny. Take care.

  45. Had sleet here has turned to a plain rain temp has come up above freezing to 33.4, alot of the main roads and highways are clear some back roads are still covered but this rain will help, also crazy how much compact action has already happened, the same place I measured 20 inches yesterday am is down to 15 inches now, alot of compaction with the rain today, hope all is well 🙂

  46. A quick post-Mortem of the event-ECMWF did a great job from far out with its consistent 2.5 QPF predictions. It has done a great job with 2 big events this year-Sandy and this most recent winter storm. I refuse to write that name it was given!

    I will caution everyone though that the ECMWF was not good August and September and then again in the immediate weeks following Sandy. It took too many small or non-existent events and over-amplified them and slowed them way down.

    The NAM was over cooked, no matter how you slice it and it was too slow to move out the significant precip in all areas but Cape Cod and Cape Ann. Remember 36 hours out the NAM wanted to put 48-60″ of snow in parts of SNE. I discounted it too much tough and did have the right idea on the some further west convective bands.

    The GFS was 6-15″ of snow so it was way under-cooked but it did hit the timing of the system really well.

    I went for an average of 22″ at Boston, Providence, Worcester, Springfield (CEF), and Hartford (BDL) with a range of 20-26″. If you average those 5 sites together they came in at 22.8″. Worcester over performed at 28.7 and Providence under performed at 17.8. Hartford came in at 22.8 and Springfield at 20.1. Now surrounding areas did more or less and the jackpot was in Connecticut but I think those 30″ amounts in Metro Boston qualify as a pretty nice secondary jackpot.

    I was happy with my timing predictions

    I made a mistake in lowering some amounts in the mid-ct river valley and they actually did really well there. Generally 18-22″ which is all time type storm. Record snowfall at CEF is only 22″ and this was only their 3rd time in history eclipsing 20.” The record at the Amherst College Weather Station, kept since 1836 is 19.6″ So to get 20″ snowfalls in that area is big.

    I am surprised at how little Providence got, but 20 miles to the north they got huge snows, so it shows how hard it is to get these forecasts just right.

    Worcester was its usually snowy self and it was nice to see the airport have a report consistent with some of the local spotter reports. There is usually a big difference.

    I am a little suspect of the 40″ amount in Hampden CT. Nothing else quite that big and sometimes I think people like to get their town/name mentioned….It was also a real tough snow to measure. I do think in that area of CT a general 32-36″ fell which is a ton of snow and these were not isolated 30″ amounts it was a widespread 30″ plus there and in that area of CT a forecast of 30-36″ would have verified well. Even in all the hindsight I don’t think I would have gone with that kind of forecast there. Mother nature is smarter than all of us and humbles me a lot!

    Best call I made was lowering amounts in the Berkshires and extreme eastern NY. Lots of areas there were 9-12″ and people in Berkshire County. Some of the great snow growth areas in Hampshire and Franklin County like Heath, Plainfield, Savoy all were on the short-end and those folks were wondering what the fuss was about and why they couldn’t drive anywhere Saturday morning!

    Anyway more fun to come, but it just goes to show you how one event can totally change your perception of a season.

  48. I must be the luckiest guy ever bc I’m just living my normal life with really no problems with storm thinking I’ll check the woodshill blog and everyone’s talking about this and that and I just got power back, I’m sorry for all that had problems during storm, I didn’t even have to shovel my driveway, somehow the wind blew all the snow off driveway and drifted it up the hill, I actually drove to the end of my driveway to the end and just had to shovel the end, my front door has big drift but we just use side door 🙂

    2. I don’t like you any more Charlie…HAHA. I had easily a 6 foot drift in my driveway blocking my garage. Took me 11 hours over two days to get it all out.

  50. I had the same thought Tom had about the increase in severe storms and how often we are now seeing service interruption. I did some checking into numbers – quickly – and I’m not sure any of us as utility customers can afford to absorb the costs.

    http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/efficiency/should-the-northeast-bury-its-power-lines-to-prevent-outages-14295683

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/08/30/put-power-lines-underground/

    1 million a mile to bury lines at the time we are facing serious economic problems is a stretch. And remember, there may be fewer outages but when there is a problem – and in the coastal communities flooding alone creates problems – it costs much more to fix the problem. And that doesn’t include the extra time it takes to even find the problem.

    It’s easy to say that is what we need but I’m not sure how feasible it is to take on the expense.

      1. I hear what you are saying but believe a major portion of the increased profits belongs in the bucket of corporations cutting the bottom line to increase their profits and would exist whether lines are above or underground. And that gets into a whole other discussion.

    2. Flooding would not be a problem and is a made up factor to make individuals believe it is.

      I was involved with a 750,000 square foot re-development of a shopping center, that flooded annually and lost power frequently due to downed overhead power lines on site. I made simple and in expensive changes to the underground distribution and lighting systems that were already were scheduled to be installed underground. They have not experienced a outage in 7 years.

  52. I was just looking at people’s time lapse videos from the blizzard. It’s so fascinating to see just how much snow fell in just 24 (or so) hours!

    Check out this one from Palmer. The snowfall rate from the 1:03 to the 1:08 mark is particularly incredible.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9t655WRTjI

    I also thought this one was a pretty neat way to judge the snowfall rate, even though I have no idea where it was taken.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4dW_72IPXM

  54. John I know people in unions throughout the area and respect everything they do, but I gtd you they would push beyond belief if anyone tried to change things. We can agree to disagree on this one 🙂

    1. New England likes it the old fashion way and is afraid of change it’s known across the country, there’s a better chance 2 million young educated workers leave to move elsewhere over the next 20 yrs than anything changing, we are stuck in the past and we r gonna like it. Good luck

  55. Charlie I am sure your snow will be gone by week’s end 🙂 My snow banks will take weeks to melt!!! I will take a picture to show you!

  56. Hi everyone. Just dug myself out, ha ha! That was some storm and looking forward to the next event. Thursday-Friday event looks too suppressed and not buying into the NAM this far out. I think late next weekend shows a lot of promise! Can we really handle more snow! I can:) I hope everything worked out for everyone–especially Coastal!

  58. You’ll have to forgive me for rooting strongly for OTS for the rest of the month.

    Hoping for no roof issues (and no basement flooding issues) today or next weekend. I raked a foot or two back on all edges (all I could reach), but there’s still a solid foot of snow up there, easy. Don’t like to think about how heavy that could be in a week’s time. 🙁

    1. I’m rooting right along with you and that is a turnabout for me but the areas most affected do not need anything else on top of what they have.

      1. Yeah, unfortunately, we didn’t get nearly as much of that as some. (Or nearly as much drifting – I guess we were shielded from some of the wind?) Lucky us. 🙁

  59. I like watching the storms and the possible threat of storms but I will not be disappointed if they go OTS right now.

  60. New England likes it the old fashion way and is afraid of change it’s known across the country, there’s a better chance 2 million young educated workers leave to move elsewhere over the next 20 yrs than anything changing, we are stuck in the past and we r gonna like it. Good luck

  61. What is an Ice dam exactly? I have huge ice hanging from the gutters? But the gutters are leaf guard so they are not open.

    1. They are caused by heat loss Hadi.

      Shingles shed water and are not designed to be submerged in water. When an ice dam develops it can hold water on the back side and sent water under the shingles. I’m in construction and have seen homes suffer thousands and even tens of thousands of dollars in damage from ice dam water back-ups.

      Suggested mitigation methods include roof raking and most importantly, making sure your attic is properly insulated and vented. Your attic should be nice and cold.

      Here’s a good reference:

      http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/housingandclothing/dk1068.html

    2. It’s when ice forms across the entire roof – parallel to the edge. It can form anywhere. If you pull the snow off the roof with a roof rake, it will form at the edge of the snow that you cleared to. The one thing you have to be careful of is if you have an ice/snow barrier on your roof you cannot clear (using roof rake) beyond the point where the barrier ends. Otherwise, the dam will form above the barrier and will come in through the roof at that point.

    3. http://bit.ly/WZSGU0 is a pretty good explanation of it (especially the illustration).

      Basically, heat from the house melts the snow even though temperatures are below freezing, then it refreezes at the edge (once it’s away from the heat leaking through the attic). That can cause any additional melt to become trapped and leak through the roof.

  62. What we want is a gradual meltdown of the snow and not a big rainmaker which could lead to flooding.
    Thanks Old Salty for posting the NAM link and if I am reading that correctly it looks like it is showing close to 6 inches of snow in CT. Its the NAM and is probably over done but even 3 4 inches would be a lot considering there is no places to put the snow in a lot of communities. I think its a close call with a light snowfall south of the pike. The weekend well lets just take it one at a time.

  63. I’ll also echo something my wife said to me yesterday… it’s kind of a shame that we followed up the blizzard with a crappy rainy mess like today’s. If we’re going to have to deal with the cleanup, it’d be nice to at least enjoy the resulting snow for a few days before it turns into yuck.

  64. I have a cold attic, but I see the ice forming at the edge of the gutters so based on what I am ready that is an ice dam…How do I get rid of them? I have been in the house for 14 years and have never had a leak.

    1. Having ice doesn’t mean you’ll get leaks. I lived in a house for 12 years and never roof raked, always had icicles…never had a leak. If you survived the winter a few years ago fine I don’t see why you wouldn’t be OK now. I did get water during that winter…toward the very end and I had MAD amounts of snow on the roof at that time. I have a two-story now and my rake barely clears the first foot, but it’s better than nothing.

      1. Yeah, this probably won’t be much worse than that crazy winter. Only worry is if your shingles are getting a bit old, and are in worse shape than they were then.

        (In my case, I don’t have any reason to ours are in bad shape, but they’re also not particularly new, either.)

        What can I say, I’m a worrier. 🙂

    2. I’ve never really figured out a way to get rid of the gutter ice, myself. I’d be interested to hear if others know a method that works.

      Some places say you can fill a nylon stocking with rock salt (actual salt, not the fancy who-knows-what-chemicals ice melt stuff) and drape it perpendicular to the ice, so it’ll (over time) melt a channel through it. Others say that it’s bad for the roof, and you shouldn’t do it. I tried it once, a few years back, when we had REALLY nasty ice, with kind of mixed results.

    3. Don’t sweat the ice in your gutters. That should clear in time -especially if you keep your gutters clean.

      14 years is a big enough sample so I wouldn’t worry too much.

      I forget which winter but it might have been the 07-08 season that was real bad. I went into one house that had 80k in damage. Massive water flooding into the house. ruined every floor. Among other things, their recessed lights weren’t insulated and pouring heat into the attic which just set things off.

  66. Thanks everyone!! I know very little about construction 🙂 home stuff! I have no problem admitting it either 🙂 🙂

    1. Yeah, don’t let my worrying panic you. 🙂

      I’m actually more concerned about the heavy-warm-rain flooding scenario, because — unlike roof issues — we *do* have a little history with problems like that. March/April 2010 screwed us (and is, honestly, the origin of most of my ongoing severe weather house-damage stress at this point).

  68. FWIW,

    The 0Z Canadian has the system for Thursday just “Grazing” us.
    Where previous runs were WAY OTS. A trend?

    Can’t tell about the Ukmet as it does not have an 84 hour panel.
    Looking at 72 and 96, it looks to go out just underneath us, but Close.

    The JMA (ha ha ha) looks to have the system get us. It stops at 72 hours.
    Looking at that and 500mb, looks to come up.

    Need to look at the rest of the 12Z runs. I for one, am worried about this
    right now. Do NOT need this so soon after the biggie.

    btw, Todd Gutner last night was VERY concerned about the possibility of
    something for Thursday. Funny, before the broadcast, I told my wife that
    one of the models showed us getting a sizeable snow storm for Thursday.
    Sure enough Todd mentioned his fear. He said he was getting “Indications” of a storm for Thursday ( I guess we can read that as the NAM. :D)

  69. thursday would be a pain storm but I am more worried about what the weekend storm could be. I know its a 6z GFS but that is monster.

  73. Weekend snowstorm is totally on the table.

    Wimpy precip. on GFS look real similar to last storm. How’d that pan out for the GFS.

    Now to the King.

    Can’t believe we have to go through this again for another week.

    1. Indeed. Those folks at NEWW wanted to suggest that the weekend storm
      would be similar to the beast we just endured. 😀

      1. Really – wow.

        Well, my ears perked up in TK’s discussion. For him to even put the possibility on the table this far out means we’ve at least got something to watch.

        GFS is latched onto something regardless of it’s primitive intellect. 🙂

  74. Hey Tom,

    How are you doing down there. Last night’s news had you still WITHOUT
    power. Hope you are faring well.

    South Shore really got hammered, that’s for sure.

  75. Be interested what the reliabe EURO says and will see if it starts trending north. This will not be a big storm.
    The weekend storm has the POTENTIAL to be a sizeable storm. This feels like January 2011 when we were watching multiple snow threats.
    For those still without power I hope you get your power back soon!!!

    1. I hope not! I don’t mind getting snow here and there, but after this one, a few weeks would be a good gap. I’ll take a quiet pattern at this point.

  77. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    It appears The Bliz of 2013 has changed the pattern…a few more storm potentials the next couple of weeks..

    2. It seems to me we’ve been in a stormy pattern for a long time, we’ve just been getting grazed…seems to be a non-stop parade of storm for months now.

  80. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Very active weather pattern foreseen for the next 1-2 weeks. There r several potential storms 2 watch. Next 1: Close call Wednesday night

  81. I do NOT want that Low to come across the coast for the weekend storm that would not be good for roofs and drainage. Even if we lose half the amount of snow in Quincy we are still down to 15″ thats a Ton of weight on roofs man I hope this moves farther east.

  89. Don’t think we will have to worry about a refreeze in Boston as temps will only get down to 33 or 34 degrees, good for cleanup 🙂

  90. We could very well be in a similar scenario like the winter of 1968-69. Coming into February 1969 Logan only had 6.4″ of snow to date. From Feb. 24-27th there was the 100 hour snowstorm that produced 26.3″ of snow which greatly contributed to more storminess thereafter and that winter ended up with 53.8″ of snow for the season.

    Who says history doesn’t repeat itself? 😉

  91. During the noon newscast JR was the most bullish on snow with 3-6″ for Boston but he was fairly bullish even this morning while JC and Melissa were saying OTS. Now even JC and Melissa do bring accumulating snow for SE MA with light snow/flurries for Boston.

    Will the northward trend continue?

  92. I wonder if they will close schools for the rest of the week? You figure with all the liability and parents sueing schools it wouldn’t suprise me

    1. I suspect most schools will be back tomorrow and Wednesday then we will see what happens come Thursday. A light snowfall by then would probably just cause delays at most as opposed to full closings.

  95. Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** 12Z EURO COMES A TAD NORTH …for the feb 13-14 event.. . still does not have alot of snow/ precip with it for NYC LI CT long island

    2. Yup.

      Low dewpoint air, even on a sunny day, can lead to less snow melt than on a mild, foggy day because of evaporational cooling right at the surface of the snow on low dewpoint days.

  97. The 12z GFS is just plain scary – it pummels us with 5 snowstorms between now and the end of the month. If this ever verified, Feb 2013 would go down in history.

    Thursday storm is looking more likely to deliver a moderate accumulation in at least CT, RI, and SE MA. I also just heard the Euro just trended north again. Believe it or not, it appears to be taking the GFS/NAM lead on this one.

  99. WeatherWiz, took your advice and gave my TORO a shot at removing the snow. It actually worked, with a little coaxing 🙂 Thank you! It really saved on my back and bad knees.

    1. Cool! I don’t have mine any more but miss it. I found with big snows you cut through the best you can, let the snow on top fall, then go over it again…

  101. Looks cold enough for snow with whatever does fall – waiting for wunderground maps for more detail. Apparently the Euro ensembles are more robust than the operational run. Definitely got a watcher for Sunday.

    One thing for sure – looks frigid early next week after the storm passes.

  102. Nice wording from Barry. He thinks Sunday storm is OTS

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Early look: A spell of snow of 1-3″ poss. Sat. but developing ocean gorilla should bypass the region out to sea Sunday! Bears watching!

  103. Pretty funny from Todd.

    Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    I’d like to punch the 12z run of the GFS in the mouth…storm after storm after storm.

    2. My bet is that is the model that JR used at noontime. He called for 3-6″ for Boston which that shows assuming I am interpreting it correctly.

  105. Precip shield on Thursday only makes it as far north as south/central NJ per the 12z Euro. And Barry pretty much summed up what it does over the weekend – brushing with light snow – main storm gets going too late/OTS.

  107. After taking a quick look at the12z Euro I would say that the shift North for the thursday storm is more than a tad?? Nothing huge but models seem to be trending further north and more precip. Still light accumulations overall.

    1. Even if we get a couple of 3-6″ storms with a 12+” mixed in there over the next couple of weeks on top of what we’ve had already, that’s a nice deep snowpack.

  108. IMHO i think that the weekend storm is going to be big for ski.country and wester mass. I think boston.will just see heavy rain and winds. I dont think eastern mass wilk get much snow from the weekend, unless models trend east

  111. Well, that’s one less worry. Bosses gave me (and my wife) clearance to swap flights out of Logan and leave for vacation a day early if we end up in the crosshairs of another storm on 2/28. Given the current pattern, I’ll sleep a little easier knowing that’s an option.

    Man, I need a vacation. And to not worry about clearing more snow. 🙂

  112. The GFS’s parade of storms makes sense from a statistical average perspective. The region and much of the country are due for a precipitation barrage to make up for the deficits in recent months and years. The weekend storm is providing relief to lawns everywhere in New England. Protected from the elements, yet getting nutrients; it’s a grassblade’s dream. Also, the Mid-West storms (less significant than ours) are providing farmlands with much needed precipitation.

    The weekend possible storm deserves close scrutiny, as weekly patterns do emerge as we all know. It does not mean another 30 inch storm is in our destiny, but I think that 5 days prior to a possible event BB should be more cautious in his proclamations. If I were to hazard a guess I’d say there will be more than 1-3 inches of light snow. Any event with over a foot of snow could be disatrous in some places, given that melting this week will be limited (snowbanks and the mountains of snow on parking lots will remain quite high; snowpack itself may only be reduced by 35%-40%).

    1. I don’t think a large storm is in the making either and we can only afford so much precipitation. Small would be OK. As for BB, it’s interesting that though he may mentioned rain this weekend, the BZ 7 day still has snowflakes on Sunday.

      1. You’re right. Last thing I’m advocating for is another large storm. Indeed, even a 10 inch storm would really wreak havoc. Problem is where to put the snow, and with cold temps returning it ain’t going away that soon.

        BB is a great forecaster, a true New Englander, a real mensch. I shouldn’t say anything bad about him. I do think that given his hunch that the system will be OTS, saying rain at the same time makes no sense at all. The only way rain will happen is if the system is not OTS but more of a coastal hugger or inside runner.

  113. Not weather related…Where do stink bugs come from? How do I get rid of them? Is there a certain part of the year they come out more than others? Thanks for any info.

    1. You mean these awful things? http://bit.ly/VQjvH4

      If so… those mostly show up in the fall, because they seek out warm nooks in houses to survive the winter. (We get TONS of them in our walled-in porch, because the seal on the screen door isn’t great. There are also usually about a dozen of them in and around the air conditioners when we remove them — that grosses me right out every time.) If you look at the side of the house that catches the most sun in September during the afternoon, you’ll see a whole bunch of them sitting there, trying to find a way in.

      I’ve noticed a few around in the last few days, too — I’m thinking the blizzard made a few of their hiding spots less hospitable, so they sought refuge further inside the house.

      I hate them so much. Luckily, they don’t sting/bite or cause any property damage, they’re just pests.

      1. Does anyone know if they smell like artificial vanilla air freshener? My power room and downstairs hall are on ground level and when I went down there yesterday, it smelled like someone sprayed air freshener down there, and I don’t own anything that smells like that. It was very strange. I have seen a few stinkbugs in my house – I wonder if one of my cats got one and that’s the smell?

  114. Joshua I agree about BB, not prudent on his part to say that based on 1 12z ERUO run, still could be correct but not the right course in my mind.

    1. As i mentioned above, interesting that he called for rain, but the BZ 7 day still has a snowflake on it for Sunday.

  115. and always a red flag when the op istn’t supported by the ensembles. let’s see what the ensembles have to say

  116. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** ALERT ** 12z BRITISH MODEL ( UKMET) GOES BOOOOM! WITH MAJOR ..if not Historic .. East coast winter storm FEB 16 -17

    this MODEL says … and ALL of the data — says that COLD AIR even over VA NC will NOT be the main issue of Uncertainty. the cold air will be in place POSSIBLY even over eastern NC …

    the issue will be WHERE does the LOW on the coast form. THIS model would bring major snow from NC to Maine

    http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=486263761420887&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater

  117. For Thursday:

    GeoEnvironmental Atmosphere
    Still days out, the team is watching closely a system worth producing a good clip of snow to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday. We highlight in a map some thoughts toward where the extent of snow may become likely given latest model guidance. We want to keep a close watch out yet on this storm before we make any increasing forecasts. Read more about the potential for this storm in an earlier post at

    http://geoea.org/2013/02/11/valentines-day-snow-in-the-mid-atlantic-to-start-lets-make-sense/

    http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=555987494419136&set=a.265970420087513.71131.265680516783170&type=1&theater

  121. Old salty, why do u think its not going to rain for boston? The low is forcasted to track over se mass? Of course i hope am wrong and ur right :p but am jw, do u think that the models will trend easy or even if the low tracks little inland its still cold enough for snow!?

    1. My feelings are that it will be one of these issues, not in any particular order:

      1. It is a coastal storm, direct hit. Major Impact
      2. It is a coastal storm, a graze or low impact.
      3. It is a coastal and it is OTS. No Impact at all.
      4. It develops right over us, moderate Impact.
      5. It develops when it is by us and/or North of us. Minimum Impact.
      (If this happens, we could get a little snow and/or rain, but no big deal
      either way)

      I am leaning towards 1 OR 4, neither of which would give us rain.
      But I’m no Met. It is just my thoughts at the moment and believe me
      I am wrong more often than right. 😀 😀

      Btw, I am beginning to LIKE the new Experimental FIM mode. So far, it’s been
      pretty good.

  122. Good afternoon all!

    Comments on earlier stuff…

    * To JMA: Excellent post-mortem. Thanks as always for your input. Sometimes it feels like you’re a co-admin. Hmm maybe I should let you start erasing the spam messages. Just kidding!

    * About the power going out more now: Aging power system with more demand than ever on it due to development, and New England being located in a forest of aging and dying trees. Those are your 2 main reasons the power goes out a lot more lately.

    Comments on current & future stuff…

    * Miserable Monday unless you happen to like rain on top of snow/slush/ice. I can handle it, but it’s a mess out there.

    * Close shave Wed night / Thu & I think somebody south of the Pike will be shoveling.

    * Weekend worry still, despite Barry’s tweet. And even if that doesn’t get us we’re staring down the barrel of a proverbial weather gun for the next 3 weeks, IMO.

      1. I’d only be worried if I was 5 years old and made a Lego gun or took my bubble blowing gun to school.

        Then I’d be a criminal. 😛

        1. My Dad was in the Army for 30+ years and we always had stuff lying around (old gear, clothes, etc.). I took an M-16 clip to school once (empty of course) which made me hugely popular in class (5th grade). It was no big deal…the teacher even liked it. Times have changed.

          1. They sure have.

            When we were little we did a whole lot of shooting and blowing things up in this neighborhood.

            Well, we’re all still alive and everything we “destroyed” is still standing.

            1. HA. True…we use to shoot Roman Candles at each other among other things. My kids can’t even play tag at school…it involves…ready for this..touching. The horror.

              1. We used the hole on the end of a wiffle ball bat (thank you Shelton, CT) to aim/launch bottle rockets at each other. Thankfully nobody lost an eye or started a fire over the years.

                Of course there were some lawmakers in NY that thought wiffle ball was dangerous:
                In April 2011, the government of New York state proclaimed that wiffle ball (as well as kickball, freeze tag, and dodgeball) was unsafe and a “significant risk of injury” for children and declared that any summer camp program that included two or more of such activities would be subject to government regulation.[8] The story often became a source of ridicule and amusement, with Parenting.com sarcastically commented “According to new legislation introduced in New York State, to survive classic schoolyard games like Capture the Flag is to cheat death.”[9] Wiffle ball executives originally thought the order was a “joke”. The company has never been sued over safety issues in its 50+ year history.[10] The disapproval of people from across the nation pressured the NY legislature to remove wiffle ball and many other entries from the list of high risk activities, such as archery and SCUBA diving, that require state government oversight.

              2. yeah they do not allow the elementry kids to play tag,football, wiffle ball and now off the wall… they say touching is bad and harrasement. a group of kids were actually sent home. oh and girls and guys aprently can not play tag or anything because they are worried that its sexual harrasement even if girls and guys wanted to play tag or sports. and to think when i was in 3 grade we were able to play tackle football.

            2. i wish there were not as many supid nut jobs in this country.. Ps my cousins boy freind) if there were not then we would not have all these rules. sounds like you guys had more freedom.. since there are these stupid nut jobs a spoon and plastic knifes can be looked as a weapon in school 🙁

    1. Cool Map Hadi. Do you what the scale is for that precip?
      Most interesting since the 0Z run was way OTS.

      I think the Euro may be out to lunch this time around. 😀 😀

      1. Ok, I See. It is there.

        First color = .1 mm
        next .5 mm
        Next 1.0 mm
        next 3.0 mm
        next 6.0 mm

        These are per hour. btw, 1mm = 0.0393701 Inch
        So that map is not nearly as impressive as it looks.

    1. Fog increasing here too as the temp goes up.

      It’s moving too – which makes it kind of eerie.

      Fog = the snow eater.

      1. Earlier Hadi mentioned about how he didn’t think the snow banks would melt that quickly. Well from when I left for work at 8:30 and to when I just got home there was a quite bit loss to my snow banks..maybe 20-25% at least. Snow loss was even greater where it just fell without anything thrown on top of it. Some actual bare spots. With all the rain and stuff on the road everything looks pretty cruddy now.

  126. TK, I loved that comment about walking into school with that M-16 clip. What would happen to you today if you did this? LOL.

      1. Surface temps progged to be below freezing, so I’d say dry, but “probably” a higher water content powder. Just my guess.

  129. It’ll be a general 1-3, 2-4 situation guys. System is just cruising along. It’ll be enough to freshen up the top of our mess right now.

  132. Weather Wiz, I think it would be expulsion too but not before you were confronted by snipers, Navy Seals and most of the Pentagon.

  133. Ha…that way it is today I wouldn’t doubt it…I would have been assigned a couseler as well to get to the root of my problem (which was because I was a boy I guess…HAHA).

  136. Chris Lambert (in for Pete) is calling for plowable snow for Boston south to the Cape for Thursday morning.

    I suspect this will be one of those “north/south of the Pike” situations.

  137. Remember most storms have trended north and west so if that’s the case with this one plowable for most of us.

  138. BTW any talk of an inside runner IMHO for the weekend is doubtful due to -NAO and blocking. More likely is OTS vs inside runnner

  141. I’ve got some friends that have been in NYC for the last 2 weeks and r visiting here (Boston) for the 1st time, I’m wondering what there gonna think, I’m gonna be positive, they said they only got about 3 inches left on ground, they will be here in am

  145. this next system for thursday looks like there are trends happening. right now i will say that areas south of the pike has the best chance of accumulating snows. I would wait another day.. and yeah the storm next weekend. my gut says eastern mass is gonna get robbed and will see a mainly rain event.while the rest of new england gets a decent snow storm as the storm is a progressive inside runner.

  148. 🙂 🙂 My neighborhood and house has power 🙂 :). House temp back up to happier levels, it was 40F this afternoon before the lights clicked on around 3:30 pm. Brant Rock area still a mess. Still more than 3,000 in the dark.

    Two things I do not want to see anytime soon, a deep low pressure that creates wind and/or wet snow. So, I’ll be the ba humbug on the blog and hope for dry, calm times ahead. 🙂

    1. Glad to hear, one of the nstar employees said on wbz radio that some of our local electricity boxes r very outdated, thanks deb

    1. Agree, though I am not looking for snow or for rain, I see the potential for snow. I hope not but I would say it’s to early to call for an inside runner/ rain just yet.

    2. shhh….. im saying the oppisite since when i think there could be a snowstorm it never happened. and when i did not. we had a blizzard 😉 so hush.

  150. I have to crack up reading accuweather forum. They are mostly kids and bash Harvey’s map saying he’s going against guidance. I just want to log on and rip them.

    1. :). Nice for you guys. 4 days is too long even in the summer let alone winter.

      Still no school here tomorrow.

  160. Again all these schools r out and my kids will go to school again tommorrow, like I’ve said it’s just weird to always hear power is out and kids not going to school when my kids r having no problems going to school, the roads r clear, this is at king Philip regional high school where these bus’s have to travel through towns that have schools cancelled, anyways everything’s ok here, best of luck to isnt the luckiest,

Comments are closed.