Midweek Side Swipe, Weekend Watcher

10:01PM

Tuesday brought a gusty wind and held cloudiness than I had forecast, but still fairly mild air allowing for more snow-melt. Next up is a wave of low pressure passing south of the area Wednesday night and early Thursday, but close enough for some light snow in parts of the region. The adjustment from the last forecast is to push this area slightly further south. After a break Thursday into Friday, we’ll be watching for the potential for storm development over the weekend. It still remains unclear how much of an impact a trough and storm development will have on southeastern New England, so a simple forecast will remain in place for now.

Forecast for southeastern New England from southern New Hampshire to RI and the MA South Coast…

TONIGHT: Clouds go bye-byes. Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces, especially walk ways where melting snow re-freezes. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s.  Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty early, relaxing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine, brightest in the morning, becoming filtered during the afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. A period of mainly light to briefly moderate snow around and south of the Mass Pike, steadiest over the South Coast, mainly after 9PM. Accumulations ranging from nothing or a dusting near the Pike to an inch or two along the South Coast. Lows 25-30. Wind light N.

THURSDAY: Clouds retreat, sun becomes dominant. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 46.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early snow showers. Snow developing at night. Low 24. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with early snow then clearing late. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low 17. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 50.

270 thoughts on “Midweek Side Swipe, Weekend Watcher”

    1. I think March 9 is too early. I think it should be no earlier than the weekend following the Vernal Equinox. 🙂

      1. I think it sorta shortens winter but that’s ok with me at this point, I like snow in Dec and Jan, it’s the longer days that make you want spring I guess, hope all is well 🙂

        1. All is generally well here, and hope it is well with you too. I understand what you mean by Spring. Even as a snow lover there comes a time later in February that I suddenly start shifting my focus to melting snowbanks and the coming of the brighter days…

  1. Thank you for summoning the ghost of Fred Cusick last night TK, I will take the 1 point in those dire situations. Those games will pay dividends later, shows the character of the men on the ice.

  2. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    I have not completely ruled out a Sat. Night snowstorm…some subtle things still have me a bit concerned.

      1. TK, which model or models are showing this potential or are you using your meteorological wisdom for this chance?

  3. Well, 4th school day lost 🙁 and with weekend, 6 days off (I did do same grading and lesson planning though) will lead to thoughts like this ……

    We should have known NEMO was going to be trouble, spelled backwards, its OMEN.

    Hold on, I’m going to take a Marco Rubio water break here …….

    I think the next few weeks will end up not being too stormy locally. Wouldnt surprise me if it ended up back to a dry, chilly pattern.

    Big hurricane in South Indian ocean, affecting no one.

      1. One things is for sure on all those, they all depict a large deep trough over the eastern US. Ingredient #1.

      2. Miss storm, miss. Rooting for this to disappear. Ch7. Saying no storm dry, sure hope there right. Who knows we probably get nailed.

        1. I don’t think anyone wishes for another storm of the same magnitude as the last right after, but that doesn’t mean we should be rooting against snow. Will most of us be happy with just this one storm? I don’t think so. If this is all we get for the winter we will all be complaining about the winter than never was, except for one storm. I dont want a destructive major storm, but i want more snow. The winter isnt over and im not ready to start thinking about spring yet.

          1. I know this past storm was destructive and scary and time consuming for some, but the law of averages is not in favor of 2 historic back to back storms. Not saying it cant happen, but any storms we get from here on out will be a cake walk compared to that one.

          2. Im rooting for no snow. I want a nice family weekend, no snow removal. If this is all we got for winter I would be happy. I’m a warm weather guy. I don’t think we get no more snow. I just need a break this wseekend. Still doing snow removal at work. The above may be wrong, I think we get more winter snow

  4. Models are all over the place and given this last storm we had was a big one, it seems to have confused the models as to how the atmosphere will respond to the aftermath. OS is the candadian model you just showed the updated version or still the old one?

  5. We have a leak – snow melting behind/above the ice dam formed along the roof edge and couldn’t drain so on into the house it came. Please watch for the same to happen at your home. Fortunately for us, it’s in a mudroom closet but it shares a wall with the family room and was just beginning to spread into the FR when I noticed it.

    1. I used a snow rake on my roof Saturday Afternoon. I cleared the 24″ of roof at the gutter. That area melted nicely Sunday and allowed for proper water flow to the ground.

  6. I believe the 12 z Cmc run will have the upgrade in it. What I am reading is that it should rival the euro of not better.

  7. Coastal – not sure you’ll see this so will post again when I see you here. Or anyone else with the knowledge. What do you know about the electrical wiring that loops along the edge of roofs that will melt the dams along where it runs?

    1. Vicki, that is called snow melt cabling. We use that in some of our supermarket projects. Basically you run this cable in a continuous V pattern on the edge of your roof at the gutter. This cable should also run inside your gutter, down and back up your down spout, then back through the gutter to where it starts. It is used on a 20 Amp Circuit and usually comes with a controller that regulates when to turn off. This prevents ice damming by giving the melted snow and place to reach your gutter and then down the spout to the ground. It works great when properly installed.

      1. Thanks, Coastal. We would have it professionally installed. You don’t know of a person you would recommend do you? I know we are removed from you but believe you have family in the area so may have knowledge of someone who would know how to do it properly.

        1. Oh – we do not have gutters on the back of that roof or downspouts. Every roofer we have had has recommended against them because when we had them the ice built in them and then backed up the roof and inside at the point where they met the roof

          1. Vicki, I do not know anyone that installs the snow melt system. I would search locally, a electrician would perform the install. If you are going to install a snow melt system then I would have the gutters installed as well.

              1. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

                Right now we are looking at a burst of snow with minor accumulation on Sat as a wave develops along passing coldfront…still nothing major.

    1. Whose photo will we put on that image of the models for the GEM (CMC)???
      We’ll have to leave Einstein where he is. Who do we put in?
      Any thoughts?

      1. For the people that still have no light and for the kids that have no school, you don’t want any snow, looks like a clear miss thank the man upstairs,

    1. We don’t know if the timing will change. However, the Old Canadian was usually available shortly after Noon. 😀

  8. Storm this weekend looks to remain OTS despite some other models hinting of a closer interaction with the coast. Unfortunately, a ridge builds next week which will bring is a rainstorm 🙁 That’s almost worse than more snow at this point.

          1. Yes I know. I just felt that the previous post was to say, look it will be a snowstorm. I posted to say, what a minute, should this verify, it may not even snow, but rain. 😀 😀

    1. areed rather have snow than rain. rain will melt the snow faster which will lead to flooding since the ground is frozen.

    1. Anything could happen. Waves often do form off such fronts and it will this time as well. It just looks to form too late over the open waters of the Atlantic. Also, the cold front is pretty progressive so any wave that did approach our area wouldn’t be here for very long.

  9. I am just trying to point out that winter is far from over, clearly this does not mean these things are going to happen, but I am just done with this winter is over talk.

    1. Who thinks Winter is over? In the pattern we are in, we’re just getting started. However, I do not think it begins until the end of next weekend when another trough builds into the area.

  10. Coastal… to answer your question above: just applied meteorology but I still lean in the no-big-deal direction. Could get really interesting in the Feb 22-24 timeframe though…

  11. I’m not even sure it’s just whether or not a storm goes OTS. It’s also a question as to whether a storm forms period.

  12. I’m willing to bet the GFS will come around to what the storm does the day after it happens. I hold no stock in the GFS at this point. Not seeing a big storm Saturday right now, but I think we’ll get something. Excited to see the new and improved Canadian

  13. I don’t think winters over just yet but we arnt far away, the sun is getting higher and higher in sky and just bc the models show a snowstorm in over a week doesn’t mean you can’t claim winters over bc it may be completely wrong and be rain and 40’s, it really feels like Spring is not far away IMO, lots of melting

  14. Major rainstorm for SNE next Tuesday-Wednesday! (Feb. 19-20)

    Hopefully much of the snow will be already melted by then with no more than the usual urban/street flooding.

  15. Want to see some Magic? Look at these 2 12Z GFS panels for
    Hour 216 and 228!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=216

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=228

    That would be incredible. What gives here.

    Looks like the GFS just had an enema!!

    Amazing coastal redevelopment if the GFS didn’t simply pop its cork. 😀 😀

      1. I look at everything. I don’t put much stock in them way out there, just to know that IF is there. Just looking at the overall pattern and see what “could” happen if things fall into place.

        I then look at the next runs to see if the features are still there.
        Usually they are not. When they are it bears watching.

        😀

  16. I believe Feb will end up as the snowiest Feb on record for many reporting stations in SNE. You can see the pipeline of storms and 1 or 2 are bound to hit.

  17. We’re not out of the woods yet guys. We probably have two, maybe three weeks with legit crosshairs on us, then spring.

    With a pattern this loaded up, we’ll get hit somewhere along the line.

  18. I think alot of places get into the 50’s Friday and with the strong sun it could touch 60 degrees in a few locales south of Boston and just inland, will c 🙂

      1. I agree, Tom – with the still impressive snowpack acting as a refrigerator, the temps will be a bit cooler.

  19. Jeremy Reiner did not even mention the possibility of snow this weekend on the 12 PM news. He showed it warming up considerably starting on Tuesday of next week.

  20. Charlies’s point is a very good one. The situation in February of 2013 is so very different from February 1978. First, after the 1978 blizzard it was consistently cold for at least two weeks and as I recall with little melting. It was not harsh, but certainly teens and 20s at night and upper 20s/30s during the day. Second, the 1978 blizzard deposited snow on top of a snowpack (remember, there had been a major storm in late January). This time around, my goodness, the snow is just disappearing. I was completely wrong when I thought there would be a 60% snowcover left over by the weekend. It’ll be more like 10% in most spots. Incredible. The melt has gone according to plan, however. With the relatively low water table and dry conditions preceding the storm, drainage has really not been much of an issue.

    As far as the parade of storms coming up, bring them on. We still need to make up the precipitation deficit (it’ll make for a prettier spring), and with melting occurring as fast as it is more snow and rain will not be an issue in the short term. I thought it could be, but assessing the melt thus far has changed my mind.

  21. I just don’t think people south of Boston will say what Blizzard when they have been without power for days, schools have been closed etc…. I agree the melting has been fast.

    1. I Hadi. I’m not sure anyone will say what blizzard. Most will simply be happy it came and went. Although my daughter was looking at pictures from 78 the other day and commented of how that was far worse than this one.

    2. True, Hadi. The power outages and school closings will be remembered. I think, however, Charlie is talking more about the melt speed, if you will. What I loved so much about January/February 2011 was the consistent snow pack – it was really deep – for a long period of time. I thought this storm would leave behind a healthy snowpack that would last more than 4 days! It is really vanishing before my eyes.

    3. Canada was scoured out of cold air behind Nemo. Throw in the higher angle Feb sun and a storm going west of our region with a day of 40F dewpoints and poof goes the snow.

      1. Indeed would not be a strong storm. No strong H to the north, no gulf origin, etc. It’s early development off of a trailing cold front that doesn’t get it’s act together until well out into the Atlantic. Even if storm gets close enough, it isn’t strong enough to produce a lot of snow. Not in the cards this go around. Next weekend looks more interesting however.

  22. Pressure is low but still much closer and some snow. Depends on how much it deepens at our latitude

    WW not too far out at this point as we are within 72 hrs.

    1. It shows a BM storm. But too weak to produce much snow. Weak wave develops off a trailing front that doesn’t get its act together until well out at sea. Wouldn’t get too psyched about this one. Ingredients are not there this time for a major event.

  23. Would we have been close to 50 each day since Monday if it was not for the snowpack on the ground. I think we over achieved again today. 44 here.

  24. Just keep an eye on the arctic front and how it interacts with the low coming up. Could easily add fuel to the energy.

  25. No surprise the monster storm on the Canadian went poof with the software upgrade. The weak, off shore low it is depicting now is not all that different than what the Euro is showing, although there are timing differences. Think we get a shot of light snow this weekend as the wave comes across New England, but that’s about it.

    Both UKMET and JMA still have a significant storm, but there is really no other model support right now.

    Better model sampling happens tomorrow when the pieces of energy come on shore. If no change by tomorrow at this time, then I think we can stick a fork in it!

    1. Was just about to post that. Storm is a bit weaker and warmer/closer to the coast than the 0z run but the important thing is that it is still there. Long ways to go but that will be a period to watch for east coast storm development.

  26. Interesting euro run, it’s trying to say it gets chilly again but I think as we get closer it will moderate some, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. You’re sure quick to be so confident about spring, huh Charlie? Did you already forget about the Blizzard of 2013? : D

        1. When I asked why, my dad always said to give me something to ask questions about. I’m thinking that may apply here ???

  27. O.S.

    That lineup is so perfect. You must keep that handy whenever we get into model battles. What a group of suspects that is.

    That should be the WHW banner, at least for the winter. Maybe TK will indulge us.

    1. Sounds good to me. I have it on file both on my computer and on my
      Comcast personal website where I keep photos/images to post online.

      Now, perhaps we should add one more for UKMET OR NOT.

      Up to you.

      Just let me know. If you want to change Ukmet, just link a photo and I’ll take care of the rest.

      😀 😀

  28. Well, in Marshfield, I’m classifying NEMO as a cat 1 hurricane that just happened to be cold enough for snow………No school Thursday……..Just not safe enough to widen the streets enough for the busses, too many trees and wires down still down on the roads and several hundred people remain without power.

    So……. WHO wants to tell me THEY want MORE storminess !/>%#!#|! WHO ????

    🙂 LOL, well not really ………

    1. Geeez sorry looks like they will be going to school through 4th of July or probably take away feb and apr vacations good luck

    2. How can they not have the roads wide enough by now? I mean what the hek would have happened if we got more snow or if the rain and warmer weather didn’t follow the storm the roads would still be impassable, I’d be embarrassed by the snow removal process, obviously not the power although u here more and more that some of our electric stations are outdated do that’s a whole be discussion for a different day, good luck,

      1. Charlie the destruction in that area was horrendous. It’s hard to know what part to tackle first. Maybe they didnt do a good job and maybe they did the best they could under the circumstances but I’m not judging from here since without the destruction the roads are narrow in many places in all towns.

  29. I like the Mike Meyers (Austin Powers) one as well.

    I’ll try to get to it when I can. Can’t do right now.

    Thanks

  30. At first glance, our little system to the southwest appears as if it’s going to nail us. But if you look at the last few frames, the precipitation doesn’t make it past the PA/NY border. Look for most of this precip to slide to our south as we experience the northern fringe of this storm. I wish it would throw a few inches of fresh snow our way since the snow we have now is gross.

  31. So the only tv met that even mentioned a slight chance for something this weekend is Harvey. Gutner said this afternoon looks to south, Pete saying just barely hits freezing on Sunday and also saying 40s till Saturday. I assume Barry is with Todd. So do you guys think no snow this weekend. I’m sorry Im being selfish, I just don’t want this one. I’m so sick of shoveling we have been doing it since Friday at work. Monday is a holiday for us and I just need the three days of rest, I am so beat. Will Boston see accumulation tonight, I’m thinking a call in.

    1. Boston doesn’t even see a dusting tonight and this weekend’s storm, while not completely ruled out, looks to form and track too far offshore to make any kind of impact on southern new england. Don’t be fooled by the temps John. If that weekend storm were to make a closer pass over the benchmark, the storm would tap into some colder air and temps would be cold enough to support snow.

      1. People keep thanking us at work saying how great the hospital looked Monday. They have pictures of us up on the hospitals web page from various parts of the storm.

  32. Bummer. That’s a good slug of precip to our southwest. That could have easily resulted in a good 4-8 inch snow storm if it was a direct hit. You can really see the eastward movement of those northern echos now. The northern extent of measurable precip. shouldn’t make it much further north than a line from providence to taunton to just north of plymouth.

    1. It won’t spread further north coastal. See my note above. Northern echos are moving east. The northern extent will barely make it to Boston. Looks like a dusting for most of us with an inch or two over the outer cape. It would have been a pretty decent snow storm however.

        1. A dusting to a coating for tonight and I don’t see much of anything for the weekend but of course that can change.

  33. The radar looks a lot more threatening than it is. Much of that precip on the northern edge is not even reaching the ground. Check the observations out of Northern New Jersey and there are no reports of snow even though it looks like it is snowing there in the radar.

    1. That surprises me a bit. The convection over northern NJ looks plenty deep enough to be reaching the ground. Far northern fringe I could understand but the air is plenty saturated throughout to precipitate.

  34. I would be very suprised if Boston got a dusting, I think light dusting come as far north as Hartford to Providence to Plymouth southward, along the immediate ct coast and ri coast to outer cape may see up to 1 inch but that’s about it, Boston may see a few snow flurries but nothing more 🙂

        1. What is fun was reading Retrac’s reaction. 😀

          Once I figured out how to do it, it was a piece of cake.

          I think I’ll put another version out there? hmmm
          I have a bunch of ideas. 😀 😀 😀

          1. Lot’s of good humor on this board O.S. IMO.
            Glad we’ve got such a fun crew here.

            Probably 99.99% of the world would not laugh at any of this but that’s what makes our small group so great.

            Maybe a second version then a vote. hmmmm.

            Thought of maybe putting this in place of Einstein…..

            http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=the+burger+king+king&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=HVtuC4beP2jL5M&tbnid=1kAfS4-o2K2fDM:&ved=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.flickr.com%2Fphotos%2Fwalterarce%2F3862986141%2F&ei=sUAcUd3KMYT89gT6xoGQCw&bvm=bv.42452523,d.eWU&psig=AFQjCNFCYvXlgHYsHbka3CYNVoh3ZDtylw&ust=1360892466188501

                1. I don’t know. Hopefully he would like it????

                  We’ll see what Tk thinks.

                  I’m Keeping them ALL, so I can pull anyone of them anytime.

                  In the meantime, I”ll prepare the KING!

  35. Speaking of the King, I’ve been spending way too much time looking at it tonight..

    It’s really interesting because there’s a really strong jet at the base of that trough over the weekend. You’ve got 540 thickness crashing all the way to almost Orlando and nothing is going to become of it???

    Late weekend trough digs but just offshore. Really visible on upper level wind fields.

    I’m not counting this out still. Let’s see what happens tonight.

    1. I’m in agreement with you. We’re going to get something out of it. Not a big storm, but I do think several inches or more are possible. May even get some heavy snow squalls – the kind that dump an inch or two in a short period. Strong cold fronts in March tend to produce these. I know it’s February, but the weather since the storm (and the weather we’re expected to get) reminds me much more of March than February.

  36. Re: Snow? Tonight.

    Hmm… Sure looks like it will get in here tonight.

    Here is the Taunton Nexrad Radar. “Usually” when one can see an echo on this,
    it is reaching the ground. That is why I use this to see where the precip really is.
    Sometimes, though, it still isn’t, but most often it is.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    I’ve checked the Upton, Albany and Atlantic City radars. Solid echos all heading
    this way. I don’t see how we don’t get any snow.

    Comments?

    😀

  37. Unreal.
    UNBELIEVABLE.
    FUNNY STUFF O.S.!!!

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Barry already saw it. He’s a lurker. 😉

  38. Looks a bit unsettled Saturday on the 0z NAM. Is it turning a few rain/snow showers into a light to moderate QPF event ?

  39. Sat NAM is odd but I am liking it for VT. Looks like a decent event but I am not familiar with their climate with the mountains etc..,.

  40. We managed to get into the snow for a couple hrs last night. I’m guessing 3/4 of an inch. New Bedford’s ob shows they had about an hour straight of S+.

    Its just not possible that we could get a big snowstorm towards the end of Feb school break. All I see when I look at the EURO now is more snow days. Tom’s personal ugh meter nearing 1,000 !!!!!

  41. Saturday does seem to be getting a bit more interesting as time goes by. Definitely some precip coming thru, wonder if the boundary layer (not from the ocean, but from Friday’s warmth) will have cooled off enough to make for a light snowfall.

    Then, next weekend, today’s signal would be great for a decent winter event. 996 mb low, strengthening as it passes just south of New England. An interesting 2 weeks of February to go winter-weather wise.

    1. It is Tom although everything is still pretty weak (GFS,NAM,CMC,KING)

      Boundary layer issues with the KING.

      No more than an inch or two somewhere with all the models except maybe 3 interior for Euro.

      GFS,NAM, CMC have the low in a decent spot, they’re just not winding it up.

  42. Well not meant to relax this weekend as looking like Boston gets a quick burst of 2-4 inches. Man, I’m so done with it. I think though It’s a really quick in and out storm. The projected temp for saturday is close to 40 degrees.

  43. Hadi,

    You’re gonna be happy next week I think as the euro put an aggregated total of a foot in the mountains over the course of the next week.

  44. I said earlier in the week I felt the weekend event would be grazing and a light snow event and it looks like some of the models are showing that solution.

  45. Looks like we might be busy around here the next two weeks. Who thinks Boston ends up with above normal snowfall for the year?

  46. Hey Coastal….. My thoughts for the winter was Boston was going to come in below normal snowfall but much closer to average. I am now thinking near to slightly above average.

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