Snow Threat Or No Threat?

463 Comments

7:25AM

A cold front approaches Friday which will be a milder day but not as bright as Thursday. Colder air starts to move in Saturday at the same time complex low pressure develops along and off the East Coast. It looks like one of these low centers will move north northeastward near the coast to just offshore and should be enough to bring a period of precipitation to the southeastern New England areas. With cold air just starting to become established, it’s unclear if it will snow in all areas – may be warm enough for mix or rain in some. Still working out the details on this. By Sunday, we’re all windy and much colder behind departing low pressure. A bright and cold Presidents Day is expected, followed by a moderating trend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind light S.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow or rain possible. Low 28. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

463 thoughts on “Snow Threat Or No Threat?”

      1. Thanks for asking, Vicki. We’re ok – still waiting for Marc’s blood results. My sister called last night and my mother is in the hospital. She has had a problem w/a swollen leg for awhile that was checked out early on and was ok but now both legs are swollen. Also, they found an abnormality in her EKG. I guess these things sometimes come in bunches.

        Anyway, hope you have a Happy Valentine’s Day! Are you going anywhere special today or tonight?

  7. I see that the storm I was talking about yesterday is clearly not OTS. I think accumulating snow is probable in SNE. All about timing with cold air.

    1. You’re correct, Hadi. It won’t be a big event, but I’d be shocked if there was only an inch or less in Boston from this next system. I’m going with 2-4, with 5 or 6 in some spots. As I mentioned yesterday, the `March’ squall effect as the vigorous cold front pushes through will in and of itself produce some accumulating snow. There may indeed be mixing/rain at first, but I think the changeover will occur.

    2. The main ripple that forms of the trailing cold front indeed does go OTS. This is merely one small piece of energy that breaks off of the main gale that slides over SNE. Because the energy is weak, temps will be marginal at best to produce much in the way of accumulating snow. I hate to say it, but the ingredients arent’ there once again for a major storm. If it were to stay all snow, 1-3 inches at best.

      1. I agree, and you have been accurate with your forecasting. I don’t think It’s going to snow in all areas. Absolute max is four. Curious on Boston, won’t it be to warm. This is a in and out day storm 7-3.

  9. By no means did I think major storm, but 2-4 maybe a tad more if things line up well. I think how the cold front get involved with the low that forms will be key to qpf and temps. Marginal temps at best, but I would not be surprised to see things a little stronger as we get closer.

    1. Hadi I don’t think a tad more. If we get it, what your getting is a very weak system just like Arod said. It’s gone by 3pm. Some areas won’t even see snow.

  10. Text output from EURO

    2 M temps are marginal but 850 are good about .22 QPF

    M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

    SAT 18Z 16-FEB 2.4 -2.5 1006 90 99 0.17 535 530
    SUN 00Z 17-FEB -3.3 -6.8 1008 83 13 0.05 531 524

  11. Thanks TK! We got about an inch in North Plymouth but some places in South Plymouth got almost 4 inches. It was enough to have a 2 hour delay for the schools. However, at least it covered all of the ugly snow.

    Happy Valentines Day all!!!

  13. from HPC

    LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND STALL OVER
    QUEBEC AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN NORTH
    AMERICA. ASSOCIATED FRONTS MARKING MODIFIED ARCTIC AND TRUE ARCTIC
    AIR WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SPREAD
    WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE BROAD TROUGH WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY
    GENERALLY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR. BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
    UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE COLD AIR MEETS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
    ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE PAST TWO
    RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MODEL HINTED AT CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WHEN
    AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SPILLS OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND REACHES THE
    MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM HAD SEEMED AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING THE
    DEVELOPING LOW WELL INLAND…BUT THE 00Z ECMWF PRODUCED A VERY
    SIMILAR TRACK AND INTENSITY ONLY 100 MILES FARTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH
    DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WOULD BE FARTHER OUT TO SEA NEAR THE
    OLD POLAR FRONT…A COASTAL LOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY WOULD STILL
    BRING POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT
    OF SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY…WE CURRENTLY FAVOR THE GEFS
    MEAN SOLUTION WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 00Z
    CYCLES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MEAN BUT HUGS
    CLOSER TO THE COAST.

    1. It’s minor hadi, four tops. Some places will see rain as the temp will be close if not 40. The making for a big storm not in the cards at this time.

      1. *********Disclaimer****************
        The models have not converged on a particular solution and there for a minor to moderate even for this weekend cannot be ruled. Though a moderate event is not likely it is too early to completely rule out that possibility.
        *********Disclaimer****************

  20. John I agree not a big storm in the making, but the temps you mention are incorrect as the front comes through prior to precip.

  21. John I get that you do not want any type of snow which I totally understand, but you have to look at guidance to see what might occur. I agree not major, but I would not rule out 3-6.

    1. look it. It has nothing to do with getting snow. A dusting or 5 inches I’ll be here. most of this storm is OTS, as arod said what we get is a very small piece of that system, I agree. I would be shocked at six inch amounts. I think tomorrows run will be more telling, even tonight.

    2. Cannot be ruled out but I think we should consider ourselves lucky if we achieve 3-6. I think it will be minor, unfortunately.

      1. It’s about time you come back. The nam is way overdone. And like I said earlier I agree with your thoughts. Some of these runs today will be way overdone, especially the nam. I think they catch on by tomorrow or even tonight. Hey where is your brother.

        1. He just reads the blogs. He’s a snow freak like me! He chimes in seldom but is always reading. He gets a kick out of everyone here.

  22. If you look at the 12z NAM run verbatim, it’s cold enough for snow everywhere with 0.25-.5 QPF across eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT and 0.5″+ QPF over SE MA. That’s good for a general 3-6″ with lesser amounts N and W. Probably overdone but the potential is certainly there for plowable snow this weekend.

  23. I just can’t trust any of the models have a really good handle on this yet, the NAM made a huge change from previous run, we’ll have to wait and see if there are any trends there or if we start to get better consensus from the models

      1. Yeah I could do without it…wouldn’t mind another quiet week before another storm. If it comes, I hope it’s just a 1-3″ thing.

      2. Ds I certainly don’t as I’m just beat down. But this is about big vs minor. Big storm just not there this go around, definet no but almost certain. The models will pick it up I’m certain.

        1. Unlike John, I want snow! I never can get enough, but unfortunately, a minor event at best this weekend. I hope it changes.

          1. I’m with john on this one. Funny how all it took was one big storm to remind people that snow comes with many drawbacks…missed school (and missed work because of it!)…accidents…ice…traffic…no where to park. Everyone I know is done at this point.

          2. You cant blame me. Today is the first day at work without doing storm cleanup or snow removal. My check had a week’s worth of overtime in it and the government took most of it, so yes this Time I want no snow LOL. But It’s out of my hands.

                1. Come on…it’s not fair you earned that…spread it around. 🙂 Tough state to live in if you believe in low taxes.

    1. OS cracks me up with him models!!! But it does make it fun. At least there is something to talk about unlike last winter which was so uneventful. I still think a biggie is plausible next weekend!

  29. Next weekend looks very interesting….I will be up in VT this week and I am seeing a nice event there mid week as well so my timing might be perfect 🙂

    1. You’re correct on midweek. Looks like a sizeable snow storm for VT midweek while the remainder of southern new england is on the warm side of the storm. Brief warm up next week followed by seasonally cold and potential storm for SNE next weekend.

    1. oh, very true. But, btwn the NAM and now the GFS, seems there may be some concensus for increasing precip amts over eastern or SE New England. Now, would the cold air be there in time ?

  36. It can’t be ruled though, as it did catch on late for the last storm. Also every storm is different. Still need to see EURO/CMC back it up before being on board.

    1. If EURO is on board with some consistency, then I will be on board. For some reason I cannot stand the GFS this year. How much precip does the GFS throw at us for Saturday. And, what are the 2m temps, 850 temps, etc?

  37. Its the GFS lets see if EURO jumps on board. Almost 1″ of liquid in Boston looks to be all snow. Gfs will flip flop not buying just yet.

  40. It all has to do with the artic air feeding into the storm. GFS is catching on to this, now whether the EURO does or not is TBA.

  41. I’m also wondering if it has to do with this clipper in the Great Lakes “getting out of the way”. It seems like its further north and east of New England by Saturday morning, then the trof begins to sharpen and the disturbance rounding the base of the trof has an opportunity to jell a bit closer to the coastline ??????

    Agree with everyone above, need to see the EURO later today. 🙂

    1. Do I see an inverted trough setting up? If we have to rely on a Norlun set up, I wouldn’t count on it. I’m still trying to piece everything together. Not sure the GFS makes too much sense to me at this point. Again, will await the EURO in a few hours.

  42. In this set up, I’m not sure that the overall precip that the various models output is what is important regarding the weekend event. Trying to sort out the overall features that the models are trying to piece together is what is most key. The GFS map doesn’t seem sensible right now. Things should become more clear with future runs.

  43. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    Lots more melting Today and Tomorrow but Saturday storm has our attention…real tricky forecast, could be several inches somewhere

  46. JR on Ch. 7 this morning is already calling for a widespread 1-3″ for all areas including the Cape. The Cape especially is surprising to me since the cold air will not be totally in place areawide until later Saturday.

    JR on his blog is calling for quite the snowy day come Saturday…relatively speaking of course.

    1. Saturday morning to Saturday PM. That’s the best part of this event. We actually get to see the snow fall (it temps cold enough). Even during the blizzard, most of the heavy snow fell overnight. I like day storms way better!

  51. Like I was saying earlier 4inches is the absolute max for Saturdays storm..1-3 to my thinking . Daytime storm and still thinking Boston is going to be close to 40degrees.

      1. Pete Bouchard ‏@pbouchardon7

        It was off, then it was barely there, now it’s back on again…lots of poss. w/ Saturday-Sunday storm.

        1. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

          No two models are alike for Saturday, cant rule out anything from a minor event to a sizeable storm, hope for greater clarity this aftn

          1. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

            Weekend is still showing a lot of potential…right now a few inches on Saturday…but watching closely.

  54. If the GGEM and Euro come on board, then look out. GGEM out in about 30 minutes, Euro in about an hour.

    That 12z GFS run was good for 6-12″ across eastern CT, eastern MA and RI…

  55. If EURO catches on to this concept, then we’re on to something since we’re only 48 hours away. After that, we need consistency. The storm is on land now so these models do have me a bit more concerned.

  58. Tough to read those panels but it appears to dump up to 25mm of precip in 12 hours which converts to up to 1″ of QPF. That’s pretty consistent with the latest GFS run.
    Timing of the system per both GFS and CMC is Saturday night through Sunday morning.

    1. Of course it is. Another night event where you can’t see the snowfall, LOL. Let’s see what the King has to say.

      1. Yea just saw that. Well actually saturday afternoon and starts as rain in boston. almost all the storms have been weekends or holiday weekends.

          1. Storm track if accurate as depicted in these models is quite favorable for snow everywhere. What John may be alluding to is boundary layer issues which I do not think would be much of a factor this go around since ocean temps have dropped into the upper 30s.

            2. I’m still not certain how this all plays out. Last night, the main ocean storm was to develop too far offshore to impact us but a piece of energy was forecasted to break off the main storm and give us a touch of light mix/snow. Now all of a sudden the offshore coastal travels over the BM in there is no longer that small piece of energy that breaks off to impact us? i don’t get it which is why I’m not onboard just yet. No consistency amongst the models.

  60. Melissa on BZ put up a snow map which showed very little snow inside 495. She said she was using “one model.” Not sure which one — GFS maybe?

      1. The boundary layer is an old excuse Charlie. You can’t use that to bail you out in February when ocean temps are 38 degrees, LOL.

        1. The boundary layer is an old excuse Charlie. You can’t use that to bail you out in February when ocean temps are 38 degrees, LOL.

  65. GFS/NAM/UKMET/GGEM all would indicate a snow event with moderate to significant accumulation Sat night into Sun AM across eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA. Not saying I am all in on this yet (need to see the Euro and some model consistency over the next few runs) but it sure is starting to look more believable.

    There is nothing indicating that this will be a rain event right now.

  66. Guess I was a bit low on the precip output estimate from the Canadian. Here is what the 12z run delivered (from what I am reading on the accuweather forum)

    NYC – 0.60″
    Hartford – 1.25″
    Providence – 1.40″
    Boston – 1.30″

    That’s a good foot plus of snow with decent ratios inland.

    1. What in the world is Melissa from WBZ looking at especially when Jerry and Gutner are realizing the potential?! How does WBZ not talk to her? I don’t get it. They should all be on the same page since they all work in the same department.

    1. If the EURO comes in, that will raise an eyebrow and if the next runs show familiarity, then both brows will be raised.

  70. I am guessing EURO comes in close but not a direct hit. Still will show a much bigger storm than yesterday’s run

  71. I am reading the Euro looks more amplified but has a late phase again – still significantly less QPF than the other models. We’ll see what the ensembles show.

  73. ** 12Z EURO DOES HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW 1AM SAT over central and northeast VA into central MD ..over DCA / BWI ..into eastern and southeast PA then into SE NY / NYC central and Northern NJ and into southern and eastern New England. it is LESS snow than the GFS/ UKMET/ Canadian but it is MORE than what the 0z euro showed.

  77. Wow. Happy Valentine’s Day everyone. A little surprised by what I see going in in here today. Is weather really THAT important that we have to totally disrespect each other? Pretty much done with this. This is the same crap that happened over at the WBZ site.

    Take care.

    3. What was said above is nothing compared to the comments I’ve read on the BZ Blog. It honestly doesn’t even come close to the nastiness that went on there. You may not like what was said but there is not comparison to BZ.

      Everyone getting worked up over a observation I made?

        1. If this blog becomes a place were it is acceptable for anyone to spit out guesses based on their personal life schedule and have no scientific reasoning behind it, LIKE MOST OF JOHN’S COMMENTS FROM EARLIER, then why come here for information? I can get all this from many other sources where the information hasn’t been processed by someone else. He doesn’t even preference his posts by saying “I want” or “I wish”. His comments are made with confidence which misleads followers who read this blog only. There is no merit.

          I was disgruntled to say the least with BZ and suggested to anyone who would listen that we start our own blog. I was lucky enough to be contacted by TK in 2010 and he informed me about this blog. If he finds comments like John’s acceptable then to me it ruins my experience here.

          I’m starting to feel like The Big O.

  78. somthing seems to be cooking for the weekend but i want to see the euro. because right now i think its going to be a light snow event with even some light rain mixing in across eastern sections depending on timing. This is my gut talking to me…. Until a few more runs of each model then i will get on board but for now. my gut is saying out to sea. with a glazing for the cape and islands

      1. People become easily offended for some reason even when it doesn’t involve them. I try not to draw too much attention to myself. Anyways, the EURO wasn’t very impressive however it is a bit juicier than its previous run. That almost raises an eyebrow.

  80. Sometimes the GFS / NAM sort of overdo the precip levels and sometimes the EURO seems to underdo it. Not sure if we should take an average. I am not sure the models, even the EURO, have a handle on it. Pendulum still swinging is my guess.

    I can tell you one thing, the TV mets are all over the place among their tweets, radio broadcasts and TV broadcasts and they’re saying different things in different mediums.

  82. DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST…
    PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISE
    WITH LOW CONFIDENCE

    THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
    EXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
    DEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOME
    LATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
    THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THE
    GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THE
    GUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THE
    WEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,
    RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
    MOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORE
    STRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION
    POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THE
    OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS A
    STRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),
    AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATED
    GUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEING
    GIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12Z
    CANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOW
    CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVED
    WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
    ITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00Z
    GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TO
    THE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FOR
    ATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER
    RECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER
    PRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION
    POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM.

  83. Models aside; what does this setup favor – if the models do not have handle on it, what is the most likely outcome ?

    1. I just find is amusing that since the Euro still isn’t showing anything big it’s being discounted…HAHA…no one remembers last week?

        1. This is where I get frustated a bit…seems people WANT big snow and only follow the models that show that, discounting ones that last week were The King and putting faith in the one everyone laughed at. Hard when you are trying to learn what is what. 🙂

          1. It doesn’t work that way WeatherWiz. Just because one model was correct last storm, it does not mean that it will be correct with the next storm. I for one was skeptical regarding this weekend’s storm. I was even calling for a minor event of 1-3 inches. However, the EURO does not have have any support from any other model. Yes, the EURO is the king but it is considered an outlier by true definition when the UKMET/Canadian/NAM/GFS models are paint a different picture. It has nothing to do with siding with the model that depicts snow. It has all to do with simply interpreting the models.

    2. I finished reading Hadi’s post along with others earlier and was about to ask the same thing……although not as concisely/clearly as you did Captain 🙂

      1. Matt, there is not one model showing that – even the less amplified Euro and NAM deliver a moderate snowfall for all of eastern NE.

  84. Captain the arctic front should work as an axis to allow a storm to develop, question is does it phase or no phase. Allows a storm to dig south and ride up the front.

  87. Hadi, I think this storm is going to phase either way you slice it, the question is does it happen in time to give us a heavy snowfall or do we get by with a moderate snowfall?

    Either way we are shoveling and plowing this weekend.

  88. Weatherwiz,

    I think they are discounting the EURO because it has been waivering much more than it did last week with the blizzard of 2013. The Euro isn’t always going to be right with every situation but may take a longer time to figure things out. Trust me I don’t think the NWS knows what’s going to happen. Even though they are using a blend of the gfs,ukmet, and canadian its still a lower confidence forecast because these models can be all over the place. Will just have to wait and see.

  90. Just because one model was correct last storm, it does not mean that it will be correct with the next storm. I for one was skeptical regarding this weekend’s storm. I was even calling for a minor event of 1-3 inches. However, the EURO does not have have any support from any other model. Yes, the EURO is the king but it is considered an outlier by true definition when the UKMET/Canadian/NAM/GFS/JMA/FIM models all paint a different picture. It has nothing to do with siding with the model that depicts snow. It has all to do with simply interpreting the models.

    1. My concern as of early this morning was that the phasing was going to occur too far out at sea with the main storm while being affected by a small piece of energy resulting in low snowfall amounts. A phase certainly occurs. If it occurs closer to the coast, 4-8 inches will be very conservative; however, if it phases too late, 1-3 inches will still be at play with mixed precip along the coast.

  92. My wife just called me and asked, “We’re getting 4-8 inches of snow this weekend?” I told her we were watching for a potential storm and asked her where she heard 4-8 inches. She said channel 7 just posted a snowfall map with 4-8 inches painted all over us 😀

  93. I do not side with the model that shows the most snow, I was calling for this yesterday bc of what I noticed in the atmosphere.

  94. Models are just that, we have to use what we know. I know some but not as much as others so I look at it the way I see it.

  95. 12z Model Synopsis:

    GFS/UKMET/CMC/FIM/JMA (early phase/significant snowfall)
    vs.
    Euro/NAM (weaker solution/moderate snowfall)

    Still a low confidence forecast. I think the picture will start to become clearer with tonight’s 0z runs and hopefully we’ll be able to see some model consistency and consensus forming by then.

    1. Oh snap! I leave for five minutes and we’ve got a storm’a’brewin’?

      Guess those trends yesterday and this morning were giving pretty good hints? Maybe? We’ll see!

  98. The information is in the blog post. The comments can contain anything as long as it is presented in a civil manner.

    I’ll let things go at that for now.

    I have too much to take care of today to worry about this, and I hope adults can work things out for themselves. Shouldn’t even have to worry about it, period.

    There will be a few other announcements about the future of WHW coming soon.

    I need to take care of my mom’s grocery shopping needs. Have a great afternoon all.

  99. 12z euro has a larger 3″ swath, basically right to the coast. Still pretty weak though.

    For the whole King run, the snow depth really goes crazy from about rte. 2 and north through hr. 240. A solid 24″ to 30″ to fall between now and then. Gradient looks like a big overrunning event.

  101. OH and happy Valentines Day. Give each other a big fat wet kiss… and have a great time picturing that. 😛

      1. Unfortunately, that is a lot of rain as depicted with that track but important thing is that it is still there. Wouldnt take much of a shift east to be a big snowstorm for NE. Something definitely brewing for next weekend.

  103. Who is going to legacy on the 28th? I’m curious to see who I’m talking to, did we make reservations or r we just all showing up, bc 5 or 10 people is fine but if 20+ people come I would say make reservations??

    1. Won’t be much in the way of a marine layer issue with ocean temps around 38 degrees combined with BM storm and a stiff northeast wind 😀

        1. At 12z (initially) but as BM storm were to approach, winds shift more northerly (i.e. last storm). Water temps continue to fall so even if B.L issue, only immediate coastline could be affected and only briefly as heights continue to fall.

          1. I’m not concerned with B.L. for Boston.

            If those winds were 25 knots, it might be a different story.

            Don’t they’ll be a problem.

    1. I think I remember Sue saying she was in. Not sure about Vicki or O.S. for that matter.

      Speaking of O.S., I hope he’s not working or something.

        1. I know. He must be cooking up something good for us.

          I’m guessing he’s in his early to mid 60’s or so. That picture of the blizzard of ’78 with his 6 year old daughter put’s her at my age as I was seven then and my parents are in that age.

      1. The NAM along with the EURO have been the two outliers and it is the 18z. Doesn’t surprise me but it also doesn’t strengthen our argument for moderate-heavy snow either.

  124. Yeah but its just kind of hanging out there not really moving along which is an issue and probably due to the negative nao. I would wait to 00z runs before making an drastic changes don’t forget NAM lost the blizzard a day or 2 before so stay tune. Hey it will be exciting to see what transpires.

    1. That makes no sense. He obviously thinks rain/mix is an issue which I can’t see how if it’s a BM storm and lowered ocean temps.

      1. Agree, I find it comical that a map gets posted and changed 10x before the storm. I guess they have to, but it’s still funny to track.

  127. I just remember JMA telling us to pretty much forget what the 18 z and 6z nam run show unless we are within 24 hours. I can’t see how any met does a forecast based on an off run of the NAM.

        1. Agreed..especially given the ever changing consensus. I was surprised, actually, that WHDH posted that quick.

          1. BZ has two maps – they are covering their proverbial……………..

            one is rain/mix to a few inches – the other is 6+ significant snow.

  128. The NAM has been so bad most of the year, I just can’t put much stock in it and I can’t imagine any mets really do.

  129. I guess it cant hurt to put numbers out for tonight’s broadcasts. Most people know those #’s arent set in stone anyways. If we were 3-4 days out then no way would numbers make sense, but we are quickly approaching 48 hours. Tonight is the last night a lot of people watch the local newscasts with fri people going out and whatnot. Nothing wrong with giving early #’s in this case IMO

    1. but the model camp is split in half–there is no way to put out real numbers when one camp says a foot and another camp says 1-3/mix

  130. The NAM is very close to showing something big on that run. Give it time. I am sticking with my guns from yesterday.

    1. Hey, I’ll take anything after the smack-down the snowcover took this week.

      Sun getting remarkably stronger now. I have a small greenhouse that struggles to get to 65-70f in January. It hit 96 today at 2:00.

      1. my porch struggled to reach 60 in january. now it easily gets up to70 or 80 sometimes . its an all season porch.

  132. If the HPC says to toss out the EURO you really can’t disagree with them. They really are the best at this. They know what they are talking about.

  134. From NWS out of Upton NY.
    THE 12Z
    ECMWF HAS COME IN AS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER…BUT IT IS HARD TO
    DISCOUNT HOW WELL IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THESE COASTAL LOWS. QPF/SNOW
    VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE TIMING IS
    MUCH QUICKER. SO AT THIS POINT…CANNOT PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION
    OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL QPF/SNOWFALL
    FORECAST. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH MOST SNOW
    ENDING WEST TO EAST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SEEMS LIKE AT THIS POINT
    MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
    6+ INCHES IF A BAND SETS UP AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. IF THE MODELS
    BECOME CLOSER TO 12Z ECMWF…THESE VALUES COULD BE LOWER. AT THIS
    POINT…CONFIDENCE IS TOO FOR ANY WATCHES TO BE ISSUED.

  136. So last sat I was supposed to drive to upstate NY to pick out an engagement ring for the lady friend. We all know how that turned out. Take 2. Rescheduled to this sat and now it might snow again? Are the snow gods trying to tell me something?? :8

  137. There has been something about this thing that has had me worried for a few days – not worried in terms of “omg we’re all gonna die under snow” but that there is potential for a significant event. Harvey talked about the same thing. Just made sure not to lose sight of it.

    1. It’s actually nice to see that a surprise still has possibility these days in weather even this close whether it pans out or not.

    2. Not looking forward to it since next weekend there appears to be a signifigant storm. Ruining all the weekends.

    4. You called this back on the 2/9 post, yet we are 48 hours out and the models can’t pin it down yet. All eyes on 0z runs.

      “Fair weather is expected Friday followed by the threat of a winter weather event next weekend. It is too early to get specific about this threat, but just pointing out that the ingredients for an event are showing up on a reliable forecast model (the one that predicted the blizzard many days ahead of time). So I’ll keep an eye on it.”

          1. I have said light event all along. Perhaps 1-3. However, the potential for a sizeable winterstorm is growing. I’m not ready to bite just yet but difficult to ignore the gfs/canadian/ukmet/jma/nogaps/fim/cpc.

            I realize the EURO isn’t catching on but if it does, I’ll jump on it as well.

  142. Well, I got the snowblower running FINALLY! So, does that mean it won’t snow? Haha! It’s been busted for a month and now it’s purring like a kitten. Go figure.

  145. Taunton going against the HPC and siding more with the Euro:

    WHILE ALL THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS THIS TROF TO BEGIN CUTTING
    OFF AND ORIENTING MORE NEGATIVELY WITH THIS WAVE…BOTH THE SPEED
    AND DEPTH REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TWO CAMPS
    AT THIS POINT…A FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED SOLN IN THE OPERATION
    ECMWF/ECENS AND NAM…AND A MORE ROBUST SOLUTION IN THE
    CMC/GFS/GEFS. EITHER CASE PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR
    THE INTERIOR OF SRN NEW ENGLAND IN PARTICULAR…BUT COULD BE THE
    DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOW MUCH. AT THIS POINT…CONFIDENCE IS AT
    LEAST A BIT HIGHER IN AT LEAST POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
    FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST…WOULD PREFER
    TO LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER/LOWER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION IN THE
    ECMWF/ECENS/ WITH SOME DEFERENCE TO THE GFS. SO IN
    ESSENCE…SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST…BUT THERE IS
    STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
    ROBUST SOLUTION FULL STOP.

  147. Taunton in their updated discussion also talks about a colder solution for the Tuesday storm as depicted by the Euro with a possible changeover of rain to snow…

  149. The 18z GFS and NAM losing this storm certainly puts some doubt in the forecast. I realize they are just 18z runs but we are also within just 48 hours of this happening. Playing it conservative is the way to go right now. The 12z runs really don’t mean much of anything unless we start to see some model consistency. 0z runs tonight will be big.

  151. To add more intrigue…6 of the SREF plumes are showing a big hit for SNE but kind of early to be looking at the SREF.

  154. Just got in, down to around 4 in a half to 5 inches in north attleboro and about 6 inches in Wrentham, tonight’s 00z runs as always will have better guidance 🙂

  156. Seems as if the 18z GFS and the 18z NAM (albeit the 18z) are trending toward the EURO. At this point, I think it’s prudent to stick with 1-3 inches on average for most of SNE. I don’t see a big event at this point but certainly the models are moody and the potential still exists. I bet JR is psyched who hoisted up a 4-8 inch snow map this afternoon.

  157. PB on WHDH is quite confident that this storm is a MISS:

    “This is the storm we feared may form earlier in the week. We’ve been playing cat and mouse with it all along, but the threat remained low until this morning. The weather maps jumped on a snowy Saturday and the flags went up. But hang on. The sentence doesn’t fit the crime. The pattern still would favor a storm far offshore, not one close to New England. The only thing that may give us some small accumulation is a little whip of snow on the western side of the storm. I’ve been in this business long enough to know that while you CAN get burned on a flare-up of snow, it’s still rare and uncommon in situations like this. So there you have it. These numbers are likely to go down as the picture becomes clearer.”

    I ask, if they are likely to go down, then why not post your ‘true’ snowfall map?

    1. Agreed. Wasnt the pattern leading up to the blizzard last week also not favorable for an east coast storm? It can happen

      1. I’m fairly confident Acemaster that this weekend storm will be a light event but there is some support from the models that it could be a rather sizeable storm. With so much at stake, I’m not so certain it was intelligent of Pete to completely rule out a snowier scenario. He’s been burned many times. It’s New England and as DS put it, anything can happen in these parts. Of course if Pete is correct, he will look like a hero 😀

  158. We have between 10 and 14 inches on the south side. I’d like more gone if we are getting more – especially off the roof. I can’t afford more than one insurance deductible 🙁

    1. I think you will see a LOT more melting tomorrow. I was worried about the large snow drifts on my roof, but now they are about 60-75 percent melted. Phew!

      1. Lots of melting tomorrow Vicki and perhaps a couple of inches over the weekend at best. You’re in good shape:)

          1. Hahaha. Thank you both. Unfortunately I still have huge drifts in the two problem roofs. They don’t get much sun. I’m going out with my hair drier tomorrow 🙂

            1. LOL! Just be sure you’re not standing in a puddle! I invested in a roof rake which works marginally well. I think I need snow shoes in order to get onto my front lawn so that I can reach the rest of the porch roof, otherwise I would be waist deep in snow.

    1. I hope so. So much to still do on the south shore

      I notice marshfield has school tomorrow. My daughter announced it. She’s been watching for Tom I think.

  160. Can I just say, being from California, I am OBSESSED with the unpredictability of New England weather? It’s awesome. CA weather was so incredibly boring. Who want to hear about smog and marine layers every damn day?

  161. Your right Lisa also if it didn’t rain and stay mild after the blizzard the roads probably still would be snow covered, wrentham is good with plowing they take away alot of the snow,, north attleboro is terrible except for the state road rt 1 there good, as for my roof I don’t usually have problems as sun hits both sides of roof

    1. I guess I lucked out with the way my house is situated. The front seems to have the most direct sunlight throughout the day. Makes the upstairs nice and warm.

    2. North attleboro is terrible with snow removal. We always used to have to call the DPW to plow our street and it wasnt even a small side road

      1. Took em 4 days out of school and it wasn’t bc of power, the not so funny thing is there getting worse and worse each yr, I think they need to inject some new ideas and new management bc they seem like they have the same equipment they had when I was a kid, it’s bad though

        1. They still have 1 plow plowing 60 streets like in the 70’s and 80’s, I think it’s time to reevaluate the system

  162. What a beautiful day today was with all of the sunshine.

    Tomorrow in Boston, the sun angle at solar noon maxes out at 35.1 degrees above the horizon, as compared to 24.1 degrees at the solstice. Tomorrow’s sun declination matches up with October 25th and tonight, I could see the disk of the sun just above the horizon at 5pm.

    Plenty of winter to come……. On a sunny day, even one that will be cold, I believe our general latitude has begun solar spring. The side of my car that was facing the sun today was very warm to the touch.

  163. I continue to think that the more sizable event is early next week but looks more wet than white for Boston to Providence south and east but well north and west of 495 could get a sizable snow event, will c

      1. Haha I don’t watch many mets other than maybe once a week if that, kids get the tv, I try to give my forecast, its tough but its still fun and sometimes im right but wrong too alot, some don’t like it esp if your a snow lover, take it as u may, have a good night 🙂

      2. I watch and understand the models, I didn’t go to college for 8 yrs for weather but did go to school for 8 yrs in something else though, I’m done with college 🙂

  164. Since the blizzard ended this past Saturday morning, the “coolest” high temp at Logan was last Sunday, with a high of 36F. Every day this week at Logan has been higher than 40F, with tomorrow easily the warmest of the last 5 days.

    This has cut the monthly temp departure down from 4 degrees below avg to -2.3F.

    Data from Taunton NWS climate page.

  166. Hi All,

    Been tied up all day with no access to computer. Just got in. Read posts. Seems like much ado about nothing. I am rather Pessimistic about the weekend event or non-event as it may be. We shall see.

    If the 0Z Canadian and Ukmet along with the FIM still have it, Then I might be more on board. I don’t know where the Euro is on this? I might have to remove King from the image. 😀 I also didn’t care for this PMs 18Z runs of the NAM and GFS. They contained nothing but pablum! 😀

    Someone asked about my age. I’m 65 and don’t feel a day older than 12. 😀
    I do believe I am the Senior citizen here. 😀

    Happy Valentine’s Day all.

  168. Read on twitter from SW CT Weather info…”HPC is using aircraft reconnaissance for better model data tonight, meaning models should atleast start to come together”

    Is this normal operating procedure for HPC or is it done on a case by case basis?

  169. Nick it’s done case by case depending on what the potential impact is to the public. Also when models are lacking consistency.

  171. I don’t remember the days preceding a weather event having as much confusion as this before…seems forecast maps are changing up and down with each newscast, concern with the storm from mets grows and weakens each time I see them on, and as we all know the models have been up and down…it just seems like there’s more confusion than normal…For example this afternoon (3:00 or so) noaa had 30% chance of snow showers for sat/sat. night and nothing else…now its up to 60% snow likely sat…50% snow likely sat night and 30% chance on sun….just seems that mets were saying its going ots at the same time noaa is saying greater chance of snow. what gives

      1. Not this one. From the start I have expressed uncertainty and the plan to wait until I was sure how it would play out to get detailed. 🙂

    2. nick there are two systems. one that forms along a cold front(weaker) the other forms off the coast. it depends on the positioning of the bigger storm which looks further out to sea at this time. thus making the bigger storm to far out to effect us. if both were to effect us we would have the smaller system anyways its about the bigger syste. . if the storm is closer and phasing occurs to the south of us then we will be talking about a bigger storm.

  177. Not so fast. Wouldn’t be basing my forecast on a model that called for 78″ of snow last week in Boston… :;

  178. Not so fast guys.

    Not sure I would be basing my forecast solely on a model that predicted 78″ of snow in Boston last week… :;

    1. Sorry for the double post – computer problems. We’ll see what the GFS has to say in a few minutes. GFS was one of the more amped runs earlier. If GFS is OTS, we can probably kiss this one goodbye.

  179. There seems to be alot of energy right off shore and its a deep trough. This could be a system full of surprises.

    1. The ingredients are all there and the NAM actually phases that second low nicely. It just all happens too far east and there is no negative tilting to the trough.

  180. I guess someone will have to show me what a negative tilted trough looks like. The NAM at hr 57 500vort ht isn’t that a negatively tilted trough??

    1. Tweets on twitter between Todd Gutner and Kevin Lemanowicz have been talking about a west based trough sunday, wouldn’t that mean a negative tilt too?

    2. You are right, it does become negatively tilted towards the end of the run but by that time the storm is up in Maritimes. It just gets its act together too late.

      The 21z SREF has also taken a turn for the worse and is much less robust than the 15z.

      We’ll see what the rest of the 0z’s have to say before writing this one off.

  181. Just a couple of observations:

    1. I do think we get some snow this weekend, if only in the form of intense snow showers that can drop several inches as the cold front pushes through. It’s a rather elongated front, and those tend to have more than just a passing flurry. They sometimes spawn if you will mini low’s off the coast. I feel that this may happen. We shall see.

    2. Not sure I totally agree with TK that last night’s system “didn’t do much.” I think it actually over-performed in places like the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard. I believe there were several spots that got 3-5 inches. What is remarkable about this is the rather consistent snow cover that the Islands have had over the past 4 weeks or so. Certainly more consistent than Boston. Though the blizzard didn’t dump nearly as much snow on the Islands (they still got 4-8 inches, I believe), they have gotten quite a few 3-5 inch storms this winter. I think Nantucket is well over its annual average by now, and I also think that it’s rare to have as many days of snowcover as Nantucket has had this winter.

  186. Battle is setting up between the models. Who’s gonna blink. Also remember the Cmc is now much higher resolution so I guess we will see if the upgrade was worth it.

  187. Holy smokes – there’s a bit of negative tilting going on at hour 60. Big slug of heavy precip coming into SNE…

  190. GFS liquid precip for Boston is .75 down by plymouth 1″ of liquid. Well it keeps us watching and wondering. I wonder if Pete B will change his tune on the 11pm news.

  192. Interesting tweet from NWS.

    @NWSBoston: Even the analogs are no help. CIPS shows two past events tied with top scores…one produced light snow and one produced a foot.

  193. Yeah, the storm itself is stonger but it’s a bit too far east. As a result, less precip than 12z but still a widespread 6″+ snowfall.

    UKMET and GGEM up next…

  197. Harvey just said that he is hedging because he just doesn’t know if it will be a few flakes or much more. It sure is going to be interesting watching this unfold. Alot of nowcasting will be happening.

  198. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: …NAM solution of no precip highly unlikely. With progressive pattern, tough to get big GFS bomb close in. Know what this means?

  199. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical cont’d: Cold air and energy aloft…quickly strengthening storm east…what could that mean for New England? Hmmm?

  200. 00z nam shows nothing and the gfs shows around 3 quarters of an inch and with 8-10 snow ratios that’s 4-6 inches, I lean towards the nam, on average it is right more inside 48hrs, we will c

  201. TJ/Hadi – I believe UKMET comes out around 11:30 and the CMC is out by 12AM if you get it direct off the Environment Canada website.

  205. Joe Bastardi tweet: “GFS coastal Blizzard Norfolk to Newton ( Mass) and pts beyond. Usual correction west, puts big cities DC to NYC in game”

    LOL. So not only is he calling it a “blizzard’ but he thinks it will track even further WEST than currently progged.

    1. It’s very easy to pick the model that gives the most when you want it to happen. Even if it’s the least-reliable model. 🙂

  208. you want to know what i think. we are going to get 0+ inches of snow. there. now i can not be wrong 😛 i gave me some leeway 😉

  211. And of course, 0z Euro is wide right…

    Guess this won’t be decided for sure until tomorrow.

    Good night! (if anyone’s still up)

  213. At least we’re only worrying about snow falling from the sky.

    Meanwhile, the Russian city of Chelyabinsk just had a large meteor crash somewhere nearby (and trigger a sonic boom that did a whole bunch of property damage). http://slate.me/VjEl70

    1. Lots of conflicting reports: 100 or 400 injured?; a single meteorite or meteor shower or meteor rain?; meteor exploded at an altitude of 32,000 feet?; etc.

      1. Are we sure about the cause there? I am not sure you can trust any reporting from Russia when it comes to a disaster.

        1. There are currently a lot of hoax stories and even pictures on the Internet so I am not sure how true any of it might be.

  216. I don’t remember seeing this much disagreement among the models this close to an event in a long time. I have to believe by the 12Z runs today we will see either the OTS camp come west or the others go OTS or both. It’s driving me crazy. One thing I do like about this is the new Canadian coming out of the gates and challenging the King right away.

  218. The last time the models had this much trouble with a coastal low was back in early February 2010. It turned out to be a fish storm but not by much at the end. It was less than 24 hours prior to this storm system that the models came into agreement. If had shifted back to the west about 25 miles it would have delivered a good amount of snow. I think right now if anyone sees snow from this its eastern new england.

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