Saturday PM Update

211 Comments

3:17PM

No big changes here, just a few minor adjustments. Another update later!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy with snow showers mainly RI and southeastern MA with minor accumulation. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing from south to north mainly after 10PM, may be moderate to heavy for a while before tapering off toward dawn. Snow accumulation 1-4 inches except 4-8 inches eastern Cape Ann and coastal Plymouth County MA southeastward through Cape Cod and the Islands. Some blowing and drifting snow. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts in all areas.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with lingering snow showers especially coastal locations, with another fluffy inch or two possible on Outer Cape Cod, then some breaking clouds from the west later. Highs struggle to reach the upper 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Additional blowing snow.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny & windy. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix midday to mix/rain showers later. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. Scattered snow showers. Low 14. High 31.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Isolated snow showers. Low 13. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 12. High 32.

211 thoughts on “Saturday PM Update”

    1. 1 inch. I dropped the lower limit by 1 and the upper limit by 1 but left the top end open because I believe that it is possible it ranges from 1 to 10 inches across my forecast area.

            2. It shows 2-6 inches of snow over the entire area where as the operational run was showing close to two feet in southeast MA. Not sure what you’re looking at.

  4. I wonder if that little piece of energy behind the trailing cold front will act to energize the storm off of the carolina coast???

  5. Thanks TK !

    Just nowcasting……

    Fairly intense echos over eastern Long Island. Solid, green echos over SE Mass into Rhode Island and the strip of snow seems to have slowed its crawl towards the southeast. Lighter blue echos seem to be filling in behind this band down in NJ and further southwest…….. Ah, hmmmm….interested to see if this continues for the next hour……

    1. Well that verifies the partial sun. 😉

      Actually we had some here in the Woburn area around midday, which was when I was expecting it. I have seen a dim sun disc through altostratus clouds for the last hour or so as well.

  7. In Rhode Island – East Greenwich. Some heavy bands of snow earlier, but nothing sticking. It’s 35, according to my car’s thermometer. Could be some surprises this evening and overnight. I do feel the colder air working its way in.

  10. Comparing nam initializing vs. GFS to me GFS looks much better based on precip location. Nam had it further east vs. where it is on radar.

    1. Really. The latest advisory statement was issued just after 3 – wonder what they saw in the last hour and a half that changed their minds??

    2. I think it might include the city of Boston, also parts of north shore and winter weather advisories extended further west. Now….as to whether or not this was a good idea…….

  16. I will say that the radar trends are looking more ominous for snow. Front seems to be stalling out and the low is forming closer to the coast than modeled IMO.

  17. Who knows but I am guessing its based on what I posted above. Just looking at radar I don’t know how we don’t get several hours of heavy snow thus getting into warning criteria.

  23. I think they need to shift everything 50 miles eastward and then divide by 2.

    As I end up shoveling 10-15 tomorrow. 🙂

  24. OS, it’s time to throw the models out the window on this one and just nowcast. For that matter, should have thrown them out from the start, they have been worthless!

    Kudos though to the Gfs and and the all new and improved Canadian if they end up getting this right.

  25. This will be a light event for residents west of 495, but from Boston to Providence south and east is the wild card, will c what happens

  26. The NWS is out of their minds:

    Here is part of their statement:

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
    …
    * VISIBILITIES…AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY
    LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

    Um, let me see. Heavy snow, yet visibilities down to only 1/2 mile.????????????
    That is MODERATE SNOW*()&!*(@&#*&(!&@#*&!*@#&*(!&@#*&!@*#

    DUH!(@(&!#(!*@#&*(!@&(*#&!@*#&(*!@#&!*@#

  28. I know on this blog would be different but do u know if u took a vote on favorite season which one would it be, yep u guessed it right summer 48%, then fall 24%, then spring 22% and then winter 6%, I know on this blog it would probably be opposite but outside this blog these were pulled from wbz a yr in a half ago 🙂

    2. Charlie,

      As much as I like snowstorms, I can honestly say I prefer Summer.
      Just many more things one can do. 😀

    3. summer and winter are about the same. followed by fall then spring.
      for me. there are like 6 seasons.
      summer june through mid september. good for swimming and evenig bike rides. camping beach. cool to watch the thunderstorms.
      fall mid september through october. leaves change color and fall. beutiful biking and hiking weather.
      mud season number 2. november through december. rain storms. leaves have fallen. trees do not suck up the water creating mud . nothing really to do but spend $$$$
      winter from late december through febuary. sometimes early march. skiing,snowball fights large snow storms. and now since im in college christmas break 😀
      depending on year. mud seaso starts sometime in march and lasts through mid april snow melts, rain with some storms possibly having some snow wth them. last time on the hill depending on the mountains.
      spring mid april through may. YARD WORK ! one thing cool i that i get out in may 😉

  29. It sure looks on radar to start snowing in the boston area in the next few hours and
    not quit until tomorrow afternoon sometime. This may just be much bigger than
    currently forecast. 😀

    1. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan

      @PeterEsquire tune in to #NECN 5 pm, for lastest on developing blizzard

  32. Mike Wankum ‏@MetMikeWCVB

    Here’s my latest thinking on snowfalls from late tonight thru Sunday sunset. -Mike pic.twitter.com/3D6YezTy

  35. I’m concerned. I have the same temp and see as last weekends storm. 33 and 31. Last weekend we lost power with 6″ of snow around 7pm Friday Night.

    1. Different animal …… Dont think we come close to the amount of wet snow or the sustained strength of wind combination.

      Power outage potential, yes, I posted to Facebook for my Marshfield friends that they may want to run the heat higher starting this evening, because there could be some power issues. But, I dont think anywhere as widespread and certainly not as long lasting.

  39. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    @docqualizer Track too close for a complete miss..a question if we get some of it or most of it

  40. I think the mets are doing a good job. Leaving lots of room for adjustment as needed. Managing expectations well.

  42. HAHA. This is a joke at this point…amounts change by the hour…and now they can’t even tell the time it will end? Spinning wheels…

    1. Can’t blame them. Models And guidance range from nothing to feet. There was no way to accurately forecast until now, IMO.

  43. I’m looking at some of these dewpoints to our north, single digits and low teens. I think Taunton should have stuck with their morning advisories/warnings and snow totals. Worcester down to a 17F with a huge spread against its temperature. I think a sharp, sharp, sharp cutoff on the west and northwest fringe of the precip and probably less QPF than anticipated in SE Mass. We’ll see….off for the evening.

  46. NWS upton throwing out the GFS and NAM as outliers and going with a UKMET/euro/SREF blend. Says pressure falls are occurring off coast where expected.

  49. Those of us hoping for a surprise back-bend (me included but I’m a realist too), shouldn’t like seeing it snow in eastern and southern N.C. IMHO.

  51. SREF + EURO + BB + TK = No changes. Have a great evening! (I’ll be checking in from a remote location up the hill from WeatherWiz on the western side of Woburn in a couple hours with the Mount Zion TV towers looming above me – hahahahaha!)

    1. Oh man, you’re all in huh? Well, I respect you for it even though I don’t agree. If you’re right then I’ll get more than progged too. Time for more radar gazing.

        2. Got it.

          Check out the Mt. Holly Radar. So cool how the precip. is bending and shaped to the countour of the landmass. So cool.

    2. Awwww. Always thinking of me. Shucks coastal I don’t know what to say…….except its ok if you send this one east

      1. I wish I could figure out how to put all of the 12 hours segments
        together. I wish this model had a total figure somewhere!
        😀 Anyway looks to be 6 inches plus for Boston. 😀

  56. Been doing some model surfing and both the King and GFS show deepening and expanding snowcover in nation’s breadbasket through the period. That’s good news.

  57. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
    Interesting battle well inland..dry air at surface trying to evaporate snow before reaching ground

    This is definitely happening in Millis. Absolutely nothing on the ground so far, and walkway stones are dry.

  58. Hello all from cold smugglers notch sitting at 20 here with DP if 4 under clear sky.

    SREF sure looks to put down 6+ and I know NWS loves the SREF so that’s why we see the WSW.

  59. I hope that low could track a little further west to give some goods snows to western CT. I don’t think that is going to happen and I would be surprised if we got an inch. The air seems dry over here.
    Enjoy would looks to be a moderate snowfall for those in eastern parts of SNE.

  60. Tonight may not be a night to look at a radar and go with the obs instead.

    The current radar would make one expect moderate snow in Hartford and Willimantic, CT and yet, there’s nothing except for a nearly 20F temp/dewpoint spread.

    Florence, SC (wow) is reporting light snow. How low will the temps go tonight in Florida ?

      2. It will make those palm trees turn yellow and some have to be replaced, 90% of the palm trees in Florida r human planted

  61. Alot of what looks like it’s moderate or heavy snow is not snowing, I think we are seeing why some of these models had problems

      1. Absolutely ! We’ll see if the inland big dewpoint drop makes it to the coastline…….but where there are big temp/dewpoint differences, such as just west of Boston, those snow totals are never going to come close to verifying (in my opinion).

    1. Yes, that Tuesday event should be good for some snow up there. Is there snow on the ground thats natural up there ? Didnt know how far Nemo’s snows made it into Vermont.

  63. It looks very close to the nam, everything should continue to move north and east ever so slightly to just graze the area

  66. Given the nowcasting of the dry air invading the region, I dont think it will snow from this 2nd event 10 to 15 miles west of Boston. Boston may struggle to get an inch or two and the south shore may get a few inches.

    TK has been saying to watch the cold N wind for enhancement on the Cape for several inches and I think thats where several inches will be confined to. If the surface winds through the event have no ocean component, but remain N or NNW, I cant see how already very dry air just away from the coastline is going to be moistened up to allow for accumulating snows.

    1. Just a tad more. BUT the NAM still has it.

      What ever will the 0Z GFS show? Will it stay with it? OR back off?

      Time will tell. 😀

  68. the awkward moment when a box of chocolates with my name on them come in the mail and have no idea who they are from… ill figure it out. but for now im enjoying a thing of chocolate. 😀

    1. It sure looks like we are staring down the barrel of a loaded gun!

      Will it materialize or not? time to check the mets.

    2. Barry Burbank Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

      The birth of the eventual powerful ocean storm is now taking place on the North Carolina coastline.

      1. For sure this is gonna be a huge ocean storm, if this were to come closer to coast we would be in for a snowstorm bigger than a week ago

  70. Did anyone see Kathleen’s question above about whether a road race in Foxboro at 11 might be a possibility tomorrow?

      2. Oddly I have a friend who’s been doing road races nearly every weekend. Some in kennebunkport. I sort of thought tomorrow wouldn’t work but I don’t have the knowledge you all do. Tx

  71. I’d think they would cancel the race based on how bad the general media makes things sound…

    2. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one….. A rest day will be just as good with me tomorrow (did 16 mi today) 🙂

  72. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan

    Time call it a night, Radar looks way different than models.. disturbing.. “sure will be interesting” See ya at 4:45 am

  73. Snowing very lightly in Coventry,CT. We have been under what would appear to be a moderate band of snow on the radar for nearly two hours and it has yet to accumulate. I’d be surprised if we manufacture an inch here out of this event. Dry air has been very difficult to overcome.

  74. No sooner do I post that and the snow has begun to pick up in intensity as the column has finally saturated. Starting to get a dusting on the deck.

  75. Tweet from Tim Kelley

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Time call it a night, Radar looks way different than models.. disturbing.. “sure will be interesting” See ya at 4:45 am

        1. I can see the towers with the blinking lights right now…pretty close to me…didn’t know there was a bunker.

  76. Weatherwiz,

    I was wondering the samething…I believe he thinks that things are going to be worse. He is calling for 12″ down by plymouth county and 7″ for Boston. His weather map is actually quite annoying so many different numbers really close together.

    1. HAHAHAHA!

      I’m not on TV because they could never handle my stunning good looks. JUST KIDDING! Just not my thing. I did radio a long time ago, for a short while. I’m a writer. But I guess I talk alot too (if you know me in person). I plan on adding a podcast and linking my internet radio station to WHW by the middle of this year.

      The Euro has periods of time where it struggles. It did that 2 times during the past 6 months (JMA would enthusiastically agree with me on this). 🙂

  78. Euro struggled nightly last year. Several time had big storm that never happened. I think it’s very good in long range and short range but loses features in the medium range.

        1. Somehow a good percentage of the media has forgotten that less is more. Just stick to the news / weather. Give the information that is known. And for the love of PETE, stop making every occurrence sound like it’s bizarre and unusual! No wonder why everybody is freaking out about it all…

          1. Well said TK. I got caught up in it this week…frustrating week with the “we’re getting a blizzard” vs. it’s OTS.

      2. Thank god I haven’t watched the weather channel in forever, as far as I’m concerned they r terrible for detailed forecast, I used to be a HUGE weather channel guy in the 80’s and early and mid 90’s but then they starting changing and don’t watch much of them

        1. Right with you on that. The 80s were a great decade for TWC. The 90s started good and then went down the flusher. Kind of like popular music. 🙂

    1. Most of it is just being eaten by dry air, and that band will disappear anyway s the new storm takes shape.

    1. It is mild overrunning over the front that went by today. The radar showed snow falling over my area most of the night yet I have been able to see the moon through the clouds with not a flake to be seen.

      I think some people are going to be surprised how much the dry air kicks the crap out of the western side of this storm.

          1. Thanks TK…it’s 3 more than I’d like, but beats last week. I see potential snow next Saturday already on the sites…would be three weekends in a row!

  85. Harvey was just on and is calling for 4 in Boston, 4-6 in the I95 corridor and 5-8 Plymouth, Marshfield and other areas east of 24, and 6-10 on the Cape.

  86. I like the #’s Harvey & Barry have. Obviously Harvey is a touch higher for the Cape and I can see that, based on the enhancement.

    1. It’s kind of exciting to stay up all night and watch another storm. Driving home in the morning, not so much… :-/

  87. im going to post one last set of snow amounts by county
    cape cod and he islands 4-8 inches
    plymouth county: 4-6 inches with isolated 8 incheseastern sections; 2-4 western sections(west of i95)
    Bristol county: 2-4 inches
    Norfolk county: 4-8 southeast sections. 2-4 else where

    nex week looks interesting. tuesday and then again next weekend. i rather have a storm durring the week 😉
    suffolk county4-8 inches in genera
    essex county: 4-6 inches east of i95. isolated 8 inch amounts possible cape ann. 2-4 inches west of i95.
    middlesex county. 2-4 inches eastern and southern sections. 0-2 inches western and northern sections
    worcester county 1-3 south less than 1 inch north.
    franklin, hampsire, hampden less than 1 inch

  88. Moderate snow in Coventry, CT sitting under that narrow band on the radar which has been nearly stationary for four hours. Flakes are huge and road is white. This is the first time the snow has really broken through all this dry air and started to accumulate. Wind starting to pick up too.

      1. Been trying to tell ppl that the band had very little to do with the storm and that the dry air would be chomping it up.

        Sticking to the same amounts, from 1 inch remote NW suburbs to maximum 8 inches and locally heavier possible outer Cape Cod. The wind will be a bigger story than the snow.

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