Cold Winds Go, Milder Winds Show

76 Comments

4:42PM

The strong wind behind the departing ocean storm continued to blow on Presidents Day Monday which was otherwise a very bright day. They will relax during tonight and shift to south, only to increase again on Tuesday, but this time blowing milder air into the region. Approaching low pressure will throw clouds in, but it appears that precipitation will hold off until later in the day when it should have warmed sufficiently for rain in the region. This will mean a wet but mild Tuesday night before the low’s cold front passes by, and returns a chilly wind to the region for midweek. Still watching the end of the week for a return to unsettled weather and potential for another storm to develop and impact the region.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain late in the day from west to east. Highs 40-45. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, may end as a mix or snow briefly especially inland areas toward dawn. Lows 32-37. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 16. High 34.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 24. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early. Low 32. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

76 thoughts on “Cold Winds Go, Milder Winds Show”

    1. HAHAHA no. But I did fix something. Tuesday night & Wednesday got replaced with the old version. It’s fixed already.

      1. Retrac,
        Exactly my thinking and after the Euro performance this weekend, I figured an upgrade from the Burger King king was in order.
        😀

  3. I know this is the 18Z,but since we have been watching a possible weekend event,
    how about this:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021818&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=135

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021818&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=135

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021818&var=TMPHGTGRD_850mb&hour=135

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021818&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=135

  4. Too bad we can’t freeze those runs. GFS is cold enough for a good snowstorm but right now the Euro is not. Here is Taunton’s early take on the weekend:

    BOTH 12Z EC AND GFS DEVELOP LOW PRES
    DURING SAT OFF THE DELMARVA/NC COAST. GFS APPEARS A BIT STRONGER
    WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE EC…BUT BOTH DO HAVE POTENT LOW LEVEL
    MOISTURE AS GENERAL NE-E FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
    POINT…LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXIT AT LEAST ON THE EC
    MODEL RUN…SO NOT ALLOWING COLD AIR DAMMING TO SET UP /THOUGH
    NOTING SUBTLE DAMMING ON BOTH MODELS AROUND 00Z SUN…AT THE ONSET
    OF THE PRECIP/. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE DEVELOPING LOW E…S OF 40N
    LATITUDE.

    AT THIS POINT…LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW…THEN WILL
    CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW /MAINLY E/ AS
    TEMPS REACH TO AROUND 40 DURING SAT. THEN…TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
    TO THE 20S SO WILL SEE PRECIP TURN BACK TO SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
    AS THE LOW MOVES STEADILY E. EC TRIES TO HANG LIGHT PRECIP BACK
    INTO SUN NIGHT…BUT LEANED TOWARD A QUICKER END AS SUGGESTED BY
    GFS. THIS IS HOW IT LOOKS…FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
    AS EACH MODEL RUN COMES IN.

  5. And Upton’s take on the weekend – they leave the door open for a more colder solution:

    POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
    SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. 12Z
    ECMWF/ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER
    TO THE AREA…MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS. THEREFORE…SLIGHTLY
    RAISED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. DEFINITELY A TREND TO BE MONITORED.
    LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INDICATE SNOW
    INLAND AND A MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST AT NIGHT…AND THEN MOSTLY RAIN
    DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER…CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
    TIME…ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW PRESSURE
    DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK. SUCH A TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE 12Z
    GUIDANCE WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A COLDER SOLUTION ACROSS THE
    TRI-STATE.

    1. I don’t see this as an all snow situatuon should this storm materialize. To me there is really no cold air in place unless this storm becomes strong enough to manufacture its own cold air.

      1. The GFS snow map has much less snow near the coast, indicating boundary layer issues and a mix or temporary change over.

        1. Of course should that happen and only speculating at this point as this system could stay over the fish but that will cut down on snow accumulations.

  6. Thanks TK

    We had originally planned my daughters baby shower for feb 9. We all know that didnt work. So we rescheduled for this coming Saturday. Please tell me no matter what we get it will be after 5:00 pm. Pahleezzzzz

    2. I hope so for your sake and your daughter’s. May the storm go OTS. However, realistically, I am concerned about this weekend’s storm, especially for inland areas. This may be one of those situations in which the coast (to I-95/128) winds up snowless (cold rain) throughout and 15 miles inland it’s a sleet/rain to heavy snow event. Will you be in Framingham?

      1. Thanks Joshua and TK. The shower is in framingham at noon on Saturday. My other daughter and her little ones come from an hour away and a 95 year old aunt is being driven from Brookline so I worry. Is the storm looking like late Saturday ? That wouldn’t impact at all

  7. The CPC for the rest of the month has well above normal temps for us in spite of a -NAO and +PNA which by rule should be promoting blocking and east coast storminess.

    1. I think the next 10 days will feature normal temperatures for this time of year: Highs mostly in mid to upper 30s to around 40; lows in the mid to upper 20s. That’s very typical for the end of February. Tomorrow will be the exception when we get a 30 hour period of temperatures above 32. I don’t put much stock in CPC outlooks. Nor am I buying the projected warm-up for early to mid March. I don’t see especially cold periods, nor do I see prolonged mildness (for time of year). I do see a lot of activity, which means multiple rounds of rain, mix, snow, and everything in between 3 weeks. Adding to what we’ve had this past week, we may put a major dent in the precipitation deficit in one fell swoop (month).

  8. With such a negative NAO I don’t work about cold air but rather suppression of system. Don’t focus on precip or temps right now but rather the projected track.

  10. Hello everyone busy busy busy and under the weather with a sore throat etc etc, anyways I think most get around a half inch of rain tommorrow night, it early for early next weeks storm but I think alot of towns just west and north of Boston could be in for a sizable event south and east is the wildcard, south and east of Plymouth to Taunton most of it will be in the form of rain, it is early but right now I think that’s were we r at 🙂

    1. Charlie TAKE CARE OF YOU. I don’t usually shout on here but whatever the bug is, it can take hold and not want to go away.

      1. I’m the type that never ever gets sick but somehow got this head cold/ throat, it’s the 3rd day so tommorrow if not better then to the doctor I go, anyways have a good night 🙂

        2. I have a cold myself. I caught it right after the blizzard but fortunately so far I haven’t had to miss work.

          1. Feel better Philip. We never missed work either but probably should have. Well I work at home but husband was last in his department to get it so he didnt have to stay home to protect anyone.

        3. Charlie neither My husband nor I do either. It’s been years since either of us has been sick – I don’t count my kidney stones cause they are only a Nuisance. This little but has its sights on everyone.

  11. Favorite seasons …… Summer, the 4 weeks of autumn we have, the 4 weeks of winter we have, the hybrid seasons (which exist, but have never been classified) and way, way down the list…..those 10-15 days or so in the Spring when its cloudy, 44F and drizzly with a northeast wind. I cant stand those days.

    Example of hybrid days …. An early Dec day when its 46/30F. All the trees are bare, there’s under 9:15 minutes of daylight. Its too chilly to be autumn, too mild to be winter.

    An early March day when its 42F/27F. It snowed 2 inches pre-dawn, but the sun has come out later in the day and quickly melted the snow. The inside of cars are toasty warm under the sun and its bright out until 6:15pm at night.

  12. Tweet from Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: My current forecast for this weekend: snow Saturday night into Sun. Potential exists for significant Southern NewEng snow

  14. I missed out on yesterday’s snow so I hope this one could be a little closer to deliver snow!!!
    I don’t have a lot of faith in the GFS.

    1. JJ non weather question we record the golf and I set it to record 60 minutes after it is scheduled to end. There was a playoff last night but it seemed the channel it was on didnt broadcast it. The recording just went to 60 minutes. Do u no if it was televised ? I told husband I’d ask you

      2. Hi Vicki… The remainder of the playoff was aird on Golf Channel. John Merrick won on 2nd playoff hole with a par. Charlie Beljan missed a four foot par putt to extend it to the third playoff hole.
        2nd straight year that tournament went to a playoff and both times ending on the 2nd playoff hole number 10.

  16. With yesterday’s snow, Logan now has a total of 40.8″ which is just about normal for a typical winter (43.8″). If the weekend storm materializes and produces mostly snow, Boston should be above normal for the 2012-13 winter season.

  18. I know we all hate the GFS right now, but we can’t forget it has had its good times too. I remember a 4-5 month period last summer when it did pretty well. It is down and out right now with the last two storms pretty bad.

    1. past performance is not an indicator of future results……………..except in the case of the GFS 🙂

      Sorry Hadi, couldn’t resist. I’ll buy you a beer next week if the GFS ends up correct.

  21. With regards to the GFS it was correct with taking Debby into Florida and the EURO kept taking Debby into Texas until a few days prior to when Debby made landfall in Florida. I would not totally disregard the GFS.

    1. I really don’t like the wording of his first-weekend-in-March prediction. It’s giving me very bad flashbacks to March 2010, when we had to shell out a few thousand dollars to repair a badly flooded finished basement. 🙁

  23. Still no evening blog from Todd as of this posting. This is one of many issues that I have with the WBZ website…not that I use it much anymore anyway.

  27. Yep. back to the suppressed, out to sea solution. Being 6 days out, I’m sure it is going to keep waffling…..probably right up to 3 hours before the event.

  29. The Canadian is a direct hit but looks too warm for anything but rain in SNE. UKMET and Canadian have the storm ending up near Nova Scotia while the GFS and Euro send it southeast to Bermuda. There’s going to be a lot of inconsistency this week again amongst the models I’m afraid.

  31. Since I can’t sleep I’ve been looking over some different model runs and I’m not buying a snowstorm for early March, that looks like a rain event esp for the coastal plain of Massachusetts including cape and islands but as I’ve been saying north and west could see a sizable event, anyways hope everyone is sleeping well 😉

    2. I’m sure glad you can determine rain/snow lines 10 to 14 days in advance. I was started to pull my hair out about that forecast. 😉

  32. Ok, so the King is now showing something for the weekend while the GFS remains schizophrenic. We’ll be in the Euro’s wheelhouse in about another 24/48 hours so let’s see if we start a trend.

    King shows a decent storm at the moment with the heavy duty stuff south of the border(s).

  33. Reading the discussion from the NWS it’s terrible. Poor grammar etc… Point is euro now shows a coastal storm and the GFS doesn’t. Lol

    1. Hadi,

      If you notice the Euro, it is slower which I think it what NWS is talking about needing to happen for a benchmark storm. I think there’s a connection here but could use another pair of eyes on it.

      THEREFORE
      BELIEVE THAT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE
      RUNS…MAKING IT MAINLY A SUNDAY EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS SLOW
      DOWN…SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE MORE EMPHASIS AND
      THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT FOR IT TO POSSIBLE
      MOVE ACROSS THE BENCHMARK

      1. Nobody’s in charge or there settled into there jobs and careless knowing they prolly won’t get fired,

  34. I have updated the blog to account for adding snow showers to Wednesday’s forecast and slowing the timing of the possible weekend system.

    Have a great day everybody!

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