The Upper Makes It Lower

631 Comments

2:12AM

A milder day Tuesday ended with a decent slug of rain across southeastern New England. This is now gone and upper level low pressure will slide west to east across the area today and Thursday, along with the passage of a secondary surface cold front during today. This front, along with the upper low hanging around, may result in a few snow showers, and will also be responsible for delivering a new cold air mass to the region. High pressure will make Friday a more tranquil late winter day, setting the stage for another probable weekend storm, the details of which are not quite yet known. That said, there is some potential for another significant snow event in at least parts of southern New England, especially Sunday. Fair weather returns early  next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – sun dominating morning and clouds dominating afternoon. Scattered snow showers, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 34-39. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers.  Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – clouds dominating morning, sun dominating afternoon. Isolated snow showers, mainly in the morning. Highs 31-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow afternoon, heavier at night. Low 27. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow likely. Low 30. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 41.

631 thoughts on “The Upper Makes It Lower”

  1. Thanks TK for giving me something to read while I can’t sleep! I hate insomnia! Be interesting to watch the models the next few days. Well let me re-phrase that….it will be interesting to read what you, OS, Hadi, Arod, JJ, Retract, and the rest of the gang report when THEY watch the models. I already know what Charlie’s take will be…..sunny and a chance of rain. 🙂

    1. I hope you can get some sleep. I was intending on not being awake when this update was made but oh well! At least I got that done. 😉

      Euro is in and gives Boston 2 inches of precip. from the weekend event.

      Also, though temperatures start marginal with rain/mix a good possibility near the start, if the Euro is correct (and we know it often is) the rapid deepening of the storm would turn the wind more northeast to north and drag down colder air from the north while the upper levels manufacture cold air rapidly and precipitation pulls it down, so the entire storm would chill itself into a snow event rather quickly, and result in significant totals especially falling during Sunday. Stay tuned…

  3. Concerned about the rain/snow line in this event for CT/RI/SE MA. It appears on both the GFS/Euro that CT stays rain/mix for a good duration of the storm before eventually going over to snow which would majorly cut down on accumulations here. Much of MA (except south/southeast of Boston) look to have a more rapid changeover and really pile up the snow.

  4. Assuming the track holds — a big assumption in NE — for Sat/Sun, it would seem that the combination of a nightime event and the storm actually spinning cold air into itself could spell BIG SNOW given what I think the QPF is.

    I am truly not up for this at all. Enough of the weekend events. (I also have an 87 year old mother, who though very active — has a job, walks everyday, goes to exercise 3 days/wk, travels, etc. — will try to shovel her place out before any of us get over there. Ugh!)

    1. Not up for this at all! I work weekend night shifts in Boston and have to commute from the North Shore. The thought of traveling through this makes me cringe.

  5. As Eliot Abrams said this morning….”You can’t shovel potential”

    THE WEEKEND…
    ALL EYES CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT MAY
    IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
    SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY…IT IS EERIE THAT ALL MODEL
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM AND THAT THEY ARE FAIRLY
    CLOSE IN EXACT PLACEMENT/LOCATION/TIMING. EVEN LOOKING AT THE
    ENSEMBLES THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS WELL…THEREFORE
    CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS
    POSSIBLE.

    BOTH THE GFS/EC TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE BENCHMARK WITH THE
    GFS BEING A TAD MORE ROBUST. REGARDLESS…IT APPEARS THAT
    SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TO
    HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CAN
    STILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THE
    COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN…BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON
    EXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMIC
    COOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILL
    OCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN…AS THE SYSTEM EXITS ON
    SUNDAY…THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE COMBINED WITH THE COLD
    CONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT
    HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
    THIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE AT RISK IF THIS HEAVY
    WET SNOW COMES INTO FRUITION. AGAIN THESE ARE ALL POSSIBILITIES IF
    THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES…YET WOULD NOT BE
    SURPRISED IF THE TRACK SHIFTS. COASTAL FLOODING RISK IS INCREASING
    AS IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW. MORE
    DETAILS BELOW. AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT…BUT
    HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
    IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

  6. Track and dynamic cooling issues reminds me of the April Fool’s Storm. Looking over QPF on GFS it’s enormous. Maybe Retrac can fill us in on euro QPF.

  7. Thanks TK.
    This is good model agreement with an event that is still a few days away. Of course keeping an eye on that track as it will make a huge difference in the outcome of the event. Right now I see snow interior and a rain snow mix going over to snow for areas near the coast. This at the very least could be a level 2 snow event (5-10 inches) or a level higher should everything come together.
    Mark you were mentioning CT earlier. This has the feel that the Northwest Hills could get a good dumping of snow while central CT would be that rain snow mix and the shoreline mostly rain before a change to snow at the end and sooner for central CT.

    1. Hi Lisa…. I am just throwing that out as a starting point since it is the weekend and people have plans. The track will be
      very important here. I am thinking that is widespread. THIS COULD end up being a level 3 snow event which is snow ranging from 10 -20 inches. But again this is a preliminary call and one that no doubt in my mind will be adjusted. The snow is going
      to be that heavy wet snow which will be tough to move should this storm system affect us.

  9. Euro track is unreal. It’s a coastal hugger and as soon as it passes the mid Atlantic it bounces east. Euro is further east than GFS thus I am sure its colder.

  10. If you take GFS snow totals verbatim you are talking 12-18+ for a widespread area. Euro looks to me on the order of 9-15 inches. All based on euro track being further east.

  13. Well the King gave his blessing overnight. I don’t think its a question of “if” anymore, just, how much. I like your early 12-18+ call Hadi. I think that’s right on at the moment.

  14. Thanks TK !

    In this now decently negative NAO, timing issues are certain to occur many days out. For example, yesterday’s rain event many days back was a late Mon night/ Tues morning projection, which ended up being 8-12 hrs later.

    On the big picture track accuracy this far out, again with the NAO being what it is, seems I’d think we’ll end up with a colder scenario.

  15. Looking at the Euro B.L. temps and………..you don’t want to look if you live on the coastal plain and like snow. That said, the heavy precip. should drag cold air down to “make” it snow. Still think heavy accumulations will be widespread.

  16. Most mets on FB and twitter are playing inland snow and coastal mix/rain. Too soon for that talk. I think moreso for south coast.

    1. The 2m temps push the 32 mark almost out of the whole state at the peak of the storm. That’s what they’re looking at. This feels to me like that October storm a couple of years ago where it went from 40 to 32 in like a 1/2 hr. and 15″ later I was without power.

  17. I was so excited for this weekends maps, I forgot to look at March 1 which now is depicted colder and possibly snow again for the Euro.

    How often do we talk about trends in here and how important they are. I think it’s safe to say we’re in one.

  18. Be careful what you wish for all …..

    Many in SE New England just lived the experience of what a decent amt of heavy wet snow combined with strong winds can do to trees, therefore the power lines and thus multiple days without power. Its not fun. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    And this one might have the chance to throw that heavier, wet snow further inland this time.

    Have a good day all !!

    1. Yeah, I’m all set with no power obviously. I know there’s still some frayed nerves around here from the last storm(s). I’m still in a bad mood from the 2008 ice storm when it was out for 11 days and it took the National Guard to move trees for me to get off our dead end street 5 days into it.

  20. Someone pointed out yesterday that the Water Temps have dropped below 40. Way to early to accurately determine snow vs rain vs mix. I am however leaning towards a colder solution as indicated by the NWS discussion listed above.

  22. 00z ECMWF ENS is a bit colder and slightly further south and east, just right of the benchmark. It is about 2-2.2 QPF in Boston and 1.o-1.2 further north and west. Long duration event, but for something so potent surface pressure only bottoms out in Boston around 1005 on both the OP and the ENS. Need to think on this one a bit more.

  23. If this storm does occur and provides several inches of heavy wet snow, I wonder if the previous event will mitigate wide spread damage or will the previous storm exasperate the situation on the south shore.

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like another potentially stormy wknd. Usually I start dreaming about spring in early March. Hmmm, I might be starting a little earlier this year. One little sign that spring is not that far off is I am hearing birds singing early in the morning now. Although spring is in another month, I guess there will be plenty of snow around for awhile. One fun thing about all this is the fun we all have trying to determine what will happen! 🙂

    1. Hi rainshine – how is Marc? And the crocuses and daffodils are up a couple of inches on the south side of our house – another sign of spring. Although it doesn’t seem that mother nature has noticed 😉

      1. Marc is ok – still waiting for results! Why do these things take so long!

        Except for birds singing, no signs of spring here yet. Too much snow all over everything. Rhododendron are frozen and sound asleep! 🙂

  25. i would love another snow storm 😀 HOPE IT HAPPENS. also it looks to start late saturday and last through sunday rain/snow mix to plain snow by saturday night …. sorry people in southeast mass but these storms usually = bigger snowstorms for my area up into central mass up into nh and vt.

  26. With a negative NAO as forecasted I would side with colder storm. Also keep in mind apart from the one storm everything has been colder.

  27. I can’t wait for the arguments over the next 72 hrs of rain vs. snow. This is going to crack me up for days.

  28. Wow – over 40 comments by 7:38 am – I knew there was something brewing when I saw TK’s new post (thank you TK) and then the number of comment.

    JR whispered 6-12 this morning but said not to tell anyone. With our roof now literally open to the outside and walls removed in one room and to be removed in a second, I’m thinking this could get interesting. Oh well, it is the weather and weather is great no matter what……………right???

    1. Vicki – here’s hoping all the snow goes up north for the snowsports lovers! I know some people down here love snow, too – so hope your roof and walls get fixed soon then it can snow here!

      1. Rain or ice wouldn’t be good either – here’s hoping for a sunny wknd.! 🙂 Sorry, doubt that will happen, ‘though you never know!

  31. Enjoy this pattern for the next couple of weeks guys because we’re going to be at September sun angle very soon.

  32. It appears alot if models r trending slightly colder but still alot of question for the Boston to Providence corridor or coastal plain, still haven’t jumped in the wagon, wanna see what model guidance shows during today and tonight, I think these models may pick up on no BIG cold high, yes it will produce some of its own cold air but these snow rain lines r very touchy, I’m taking the wait and see approach next 24 hrs then will evauate, will c

  33. Last night, I asked about the storm–my daughter has an interview in Valhalla, NY on Monday and she can’t miss it, and it can’t be rescheduled. I’m going to meet her in CT on Sunday; she’s coming up from Delaware but should I go earlier, is the question. Retrac suggested watching this blog for like 800 posts on Friday–which was my plan A and I guess I’ll stick with it. But, I did check for hotel availability on Saturday night. Now to figure out whether it makes sense for her to travel on Sat or Sun. I think maybe I should just get a big fan and borrow a boat.

    2. Deb where in CT are you meeting your daughter? Forecasts here in CT call for rain at the shore with a change to snow as
      the storm departs with a rain snow mix central CT and all snow northern CT. The thinking is its an 8pm Saturday to 8pm storm
      No snowfall amounts given out as our local stations wait till 48 hours prior before giving out initial estimates on snowfall.

  34. Euro and GFS have three more in the bullpen after this one. Squeeze all the precip. out now I say in hope of sunny and mild spring.

    1. agreed give us a bunch of snow and keep us near or below normal temps now so we have a nice warm april and then a warm to hot may through august 😀 i get out may 20th. 🙂 so let the summer weather start then 🙂 and have good spring weather for the first part of may and april so i can do my homework on the patio 😀

  35. By the way I still feel like poo, I think it’s time to go to doctor ugh, this friggen sinus/cough/throat/headache/no voice is terrible, I’ve had enough, I’ll check back later ugh

    1. Took antibiotics for both my grandson and me and my cough and husbands are still lingering Feel better Charlie.

      1. I had to take the Z-pak when I had that nasty head cold! Unfortunatley, for me it held on longer than I would have liked. Remember Charlie, plenty of vitamin C! Feel better soon!

    3. Charlie, feel better soon. I know from past experience w/colds, etc. that symptoms, especially cough can last a long time – w/me it can last 2 months! But I think it’s a good idea you call dr. He/she will prob’ly give you something to help you feel better.

  36. I am just so frustrated! How can media outlets already be calling for 6″-12+ for
    For Sunday four days out? Fox had a “winter storm warning ” graphic this morning. The hyping is disgusting! I know the plow guys love the snow but the hype is so irresponsible. This will make three back to back weekends of destroyed business never to be regained. Really hurts. Just have to vent!!!!!

    1. ML do you have a small buisiness. That sure is tough. Two weeks ago wasn’t hyped. Last weekend I think the mets all did their best to show the conflicting info and the malls were still packed. Even the Friday of the pig storm my SIL who works at a sports store said it was busier than a normal fri. I do think you are right that small business is hurt sadly.

  37. Yes to small business. If the “S” word is even in the forecast we lose 1/3 to 1/2 of sales and it doesn’t even have to actually snow! Outlets have been “teasing” this one since last week . It almost doesn’t matter what happens the fact that it “might” snow terrifies People into staying in. Especially on the weekends. My father came from a small town near Syracuse, last Sunday’s “snowstorm” wouldn’t have even been noticed there.

    2. That’s so true. I had a friend is Syracuse who said two weeks ago, “enjoy your blizzard! We’re only supposed to get about a foot here.”

      Talk about perspective!

      1. I always found it to be the same in ski country. Life just goes on. Is it because there is not as much congestion, people know how to drive, what?

  38. We are a retail bakery and yes, it will be total insanity here Friday and Sarurday as everyone will be in a “media whipped snow panic” but that still won’t make up for losing three consecutive Sundays. It was almost as if the graphic I mentioned was that station
    “warning that there might be a winter storm warning!!!!” that is hyping no matter how
    One slices it!

    1. M.L.

      ok…….here’s an idea.

      So, Brand a new item linked to snowstorms and promote the hell out of it while people are in the store. I hate TWC for naming storms but maybe for “Nemo”, you make NEMO Blizzard cookies or something or presidents day storm cakes of Lincoln with snowballs on his head or something. Be careful not to cannibalize existing products. Rather, make complimentary ones specially branded for the storm. You’ll become known for it IMHO. Branding is where its at these days. Get more out of your customers to bump you rev’s higher during these one-time events. Culturally, we love talking about storms – take advantage of it – piggy back on the media frenzy.

  39. My thoughts remain the same as they did last night although feeling more confident at a significant snowstorm for Boston southwest, west and northwest. The wildcard will be 850 line across southeast MA, south coast, Cape and Islands. B.L may be an issue early in the storm along the immediate coast line due to initial strong easterly jet; however, with storm tracking over the 40/70 winds will shift NE and dynamic cooling due to heavy qpf will change any mixing/rain to heavy snow all the way down to the coast line. Even though mixing may initially cut down on snowfall totals along the coast, the coast is closer in approximity to the storm and therefore the highest snowfall rates will fall in this area allowing the coastal plain to quickly play catch up. Not to mention a deformation zone could once again set up along the I95 corridor further enhancing snowfall rates. Therefore, given the current track and strength of this storm, most of SNE should receive substantial snow from this storm. It will be of the heavy wet variety so get your plows and snow throwers ready. Shovelers beware.

    Concern: No STRONG H to our north.

    1. There was no strong high to the north with the October Noreaster of 2011 and if you were in the interior of SNE you had
      a good dumping of heavy wet snow. If this storm is strong enough it could create its own cold air as was the case with that
      storm.

    2. For the blizzard 2 weeks ago, did the models have the strong high to the north this far out? IIRC, the strong high on those runs wasnt there until a couple days before. I remember us all commenting that finally theres a high depicted to our north. I could be wrong tho

  40. Hadi,

    To answer your question..

    Euro qpf as follows:

    2.5: S.S. and Cape
    2-2.5: 128 to Boston
    1.75 to 2: 495 to 128
    1.5 to 1.75: Worcester to 495

    1. The EURO is scary in terms of precip amounts. It could be responsible for 1-2 feet of very heavy wet snow in the coastal plain. You can expect big time power outages if that were to verify due to the weight of the snow coupled with strong northeasterly winds.

        1. Narrowing of the streets is a Winter Norm.

          It is the possibility of extreme power outages that
          concerns me. We can deal with the snow. 😀

  41. Good morning all. Here we go again!!

    Here are a couple of screen shots of the 0Z Euro from Wundermap.

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/EURO%281%29.jpg

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/Euro1.jpg

    btw, 850mb temps are AOK from MA/CT/RI border North, even at the start.
    850mb temps come crashing down all over once this thing gets going.

    I like TK’s thinking on this.

    IF there is a mix in Boston at the start, it will NOT last long.

    This could be a large impact event. My biggest fear it widespread power outages.
    Even if temps immediately drop to 32, it will be so Wet we could be in BIG trouble.

    The situation needs to be monitored carefully.

    The models are in so much agreement, it is uncanny. Not sure what that ultimately means. 😀

    1. Old Salty living in CT with that heavy wet snow from that October Noreaster in 2011 caused the biggest power outage in the history of CT. That type of snow just clings to everything. Whenever I hear the possiblity of heavy wet snow its not only the shoveling which will be tough but the
      possiblity of those power outages which COULD be widespread.

      1. Absolutely. We DON’T need that. I wish we had an Arctic High
        Parked just to our North. Powder snow is SOOO much easier.

        It will be what it will be and we will just have to deal with it
        the best we can.

    1. Awesome! Good to hear. Hope you and the fam are having fun. I just booked my ski trip to Stowe, for the first full week of March. Hoping for some storms!

      1. Thinking maybe 8:1 at coast and 10 or 12:1 interior hills.

        Brett Andersen’s thoughts for next couple of weeks:

        “However, this type of pattern should continue to support more storminess (cutoff lows) across the central/eastern U.S. & perhaps southeastern Canada”

    2. Even if coastal plain mixes, heights will quickly crash and closest proximity to storm + deformation zone = highest snowfall rates and quite possibly snow totals all the way down to the coast line. This one has me more concerned than the blizzard of 2013 due to the weight of the snow creating ‘widespread’ power outages—the last thing many folks need. Could be a wild Sunday to say the least.

  45. This has the making IMHO to be bigger than Nemo. The NAO is key to keeping this a long duration event. Systems looks like a phase as well.

    2. HOLY BULL CRAP BATMAN!!!

      Hadi, we are in the BULLSEYE!!!! Make sure you’re home before Sunday!!!!

      I am truly concerned.

  48. I have a sneaking suspicion that the 12z EURO will either be

    A) further south and east guaranteeing an all snow event with less QPF

    or

    B) A further west solution with a guaranteed rainstorm for at least a good chunk of the storm for Boston points south and east.

    My big question is, where’s the block?

    2. The EURO has the right idea. It will be a benchmark snow with plentiful heavy wet snow for a majority of the area. Yesterday the strength of the storm was still not known; however, as of today phasing looks to occur making this yet another blockbuster of a storm.

      1. I am in agreement. This looks to be another blockbuster.

        Not as much wind as the blizzard, but potentially larger impact due to the weight of the snow. We shall see.

  49. JimmyJames–I’m meeting her in Stamford–Sunday at around 2. I’m thinking maybe we’ll do all this on Saturday so we don’t have to worry.

    1. Deb reading the discussion here, Saturday sure would be my choice. We are now having to make the decision to cancel the baby shower Saturday yet again (for more reasons than snow but snow is just making it an easier decision). One of our very special guests is my husband’s aunt who will be 96 in a few months. We sure don’t want her out and about if there is a danger.

      1. I’m sorry about the shower–you just can’t take the chance though. This storm really really has poor timing. Maybe if everybody positions a fan, just so–we could be like one of those commercials for I think harvard vanguard–you know where together we achieve great things.

    2. Hi Deb… I would go for Saturday during the day. This is a Saturday night into Sunday morning deal in CT. In Stamford
      this maybe one of those rain and end as a period of snow situations.

  51. Some observations:

    1. Gosh, that was a mini thaw yesterday. I thought it would be at least 30 hours of above freezing temps. I was wrong again! It got cold very fast late last night. Lots of ice on sidewalks and side streets. I hope that everyone was careful this morning.

    2. While I love snow, I’m not thrilled about this weekend storm’s potential to be a crushing blow to the region. Heavy, wet snow is not what anyone really wants. As JJ said above, it can lead to widespread power outages that last a long time.

    3. Beware of the weekly pattern phenomenon. Besides this weekend I think that we’ll see more of the same next weekend (another powerful coastal storm with probably all rain, but again lots of it). I’m telling you the precipitation deficit may be history by early to mid March.

    1. #3 is my absolute nightmare: a huge snowpack just waiting for a huge rainstorm to flood absolutely everything. (And while I’m away from home and not able to keep an eye on things, to boot. I’d like ONE vacation without a potential weather disaster striking my house while I’m gone… last time, it was Sandy.) 🙁

  52. The more this thing slows down, the sooner it blows up, and the deeper it is as it passes. A deeper storm means more ability to draw down the cold air quickly and makes rain/mixing less of a factor except along the immediate coast. Issue with this storm (as opposed to the Blizzard a few weeks ago) is that it looks to be forming further north so it has less time to get going. Thus, I think the bullseye shifts further east with this storm, and north, due to the lack of cold air at the start and mixing issues closer to the coast (i.e. Worcester County and Metro West).

    JJ, I could see Union, CT in the northeast corner coming in with 18″ of snow from this storm, and Stamford only getting 2″. I think there will be a huge variation in snow totals across CT. Tough forecast.

    1. Hi Mark… Very tough forecast to say the least for CT. I agree with you that snowfall could be a wide range in the state.
      I think the hill towns of CT could end up with the big totals here.

    4. You also have to remember the blocking and what the Euro showed yesterday with a low close to the coast and then to the benchmark and then southeast. I can’t remember who described this yesterday, but I don’t think the NAMs placement of the low is of much concern at this point, again its far away for the NAM nonetheless

      1. GoForSnow. Well said. The ‘initial’ placement of surface low is not a big problem. The blocking upstream forces the surface low almost due east thereby preventing a rainstorm and creating a slow moving snowstorm for southern new england. In this case, placement is not a big factor. It’s the resulting storm track that must be monitored. Blocking upstream spells trouble for SNE

  55. FWIW, 0Z FIM model output:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013022000/3hap_sfc_f114.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013022000/temp_850_f114.png

    850mb temps are good throughout the event, but like some other models,
    the 0C line falls almost East-West across MA/CT border.

    With this particular model, the 850mb temps are slow to fall throughout the region.

    This model would present boundary layer issues in coastal regions.

    But, hey, the EURO is KING!!!!

    Should be interesting to see each successive Euro Run to see if it stays on track.

    2. I’d be surprised if the King waffles more than 25-50 miles either way from here on out.

      I can’t wait to see what entertainment the NAM will eventually deliver us.

      1. If the NAM keeps this way, the only entertainment value will
        be looking at the amounts of RAIN it wants to spit out.
        😀 😀 😀

        1. LOL. But we both know the NAM is schizophrenic. It’s been very unimpressive to say the least this winter.

            1. Hey, if this pans out, we might be able to cut back on the GFS’ meds a little since it was the first one to the party. Still not “cured” enough to be set loose on the public though.

    3. If this were December with ocean temps in the low to mid 40’s there would no doubt be more significant mixing issues along the coast to 495. However, ocean temps are a good 5-7 degrees colder and wind direction shifts from the east to the northeast with time during the storm. Thus any mixing issues will change over to heavy snow even along the coastal plane and since the coast is closest to the center of circulation combined with a deformation zone that likely sets up shop some place near the I95 corridor, even the coast experiences heavy snow accumulation from this storm. Watch out roof tops!

      1. Agree, Coastal regions, even if mixing occurs, flips over to snow
        fairly quickly and gets involved in the HEAVY snow.

        I am not concerned about my rooftop, as my roof can handle a
        ton of weight. The floor supports in the basement are 12×12 beams. The roof is way solid. No plywood crap up there.
        A contractor once told me that my house was built like a fortress. 😀

        BUT, what worries me, is losing power and a major concern of my wife’s is having one of many surrounding trees croaking and falling on our house. I’m not quite as concerned, but it is a possibility.

  56. This is the first blocking in place for a storm system to work with all winter long with the NAO negative. For the blizzard the NAO was around neutral yet still delivered a lot of snow. It will be interesting with blocking in place and a track to the benchmark aka sweet spot what this COULD deliver.

  57. Btw, The Canadian is not nearly as robust and the Nogaps wants to take it more
    OTS.

    Where is the 12Z EURO????

  58. As for the NAM forecast, I would 1) discount it to zero value at this point, and 2) though many feel it is good inside 48 hours, I “feel” like it’s been good only inside 48 minutes. 🙂

  59. 12z GFS…..

    GFS looks locked in now. Very consistent. I’m so not used to this. Did it go on one of those makeover reality shows and we missed it?

      1. Similar to my pinball bumper analogy from yesterday. Not sure why because the high to the north isn’t that close or strong. We’re getting later in the winter so maybe there’s some climatology to it. That’s for TK/JMA to sort out for us. What about baroclinity?

  60. 12Z GFS is in.

    Here is the snowfall map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    This shows Much Rain/Mix along the coast.

    I do NOT believe this will be correct. I still think even if there is a mix on the coast,
    it will be short lived and the coast gets in on the snow, at least Boston point North.

    2. I think that the following 12Z GFS snow Rate maps indicate its thinking
      on rain/mix in coastal areas. Very telling, indeed. Still think it is wrong.
      We shall see.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=093

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=096

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=099

  61. Is it me, or does the GFS not look half bad for tracking this storm? 12z is probably a bit warm, but I bet not by much?

  62. The elevated areas of SNE get a good dumping of snow on that run of the GFS. Waiting to see the 12z EURO. As I have been saying if this storm is strong it could manufacture its own cold air a lot of places of SNE could get a good dumping snow in adddition to the elevated areas.

      1. The only thing that concerns me is lack of stong H to the north but still feel confident coastal areas will see significant snow.

  63. O.S.,

    Check out the 500mb chart. Looks like there’s and upper level low that is the cause for bouncing it out E/SE in the end. Am I seeing things? Crazy? Both?

  64. Hey TK & Everyone Else:

    Check out WeatherWizard’s thoughts on Melissa’s morning blog!

    TK…do you agree with those potential storms in the coming weeks? Yikes!!

    1. As always, interesting comment by WW, but unfortunately I made the mistake of reading the rest of the comments. I just remarked the other day how comments to Barry’s post were refreshing! Should have known the civility on that blog couldn’t last!

  65. Time and time again this winter (and the past few years for that matter), eastern NY, the Berkshires, VT and NH have gotten shafted out of the heavy snows from these noreasters. We have had very few that tracked close enough to the coast to give locations further inland the jackpot. I have a feeling that is going to change with this storm and I am not liking the trends to a stronger system and track closer to the coast. I think the warm air overwhelms the column and causes rain/mix thoughout most of CT, RI, SE and coastal MA. It will go over to snow everywhere as the storm pulls away but I think too late for double digit snowfall numbers in these areas. Jackpot will likely be Worcester County west to the Berkshires and north into southern VT and NH. I think the Euro stays the course this afternoon but shifts slightly closer to the coast.

    2. Doubtful. Due to downstream blocking, northward progress of the surface low is halted and forced eastward resulting in the majority of the area to remain on the colder side of the storm. Any mixing along the coast will quickly change to heavy snow. The EURO will verify.

      1. Again, I agree and IF the GFS wind map verifies, Subtanstial
        Heavy Wet snow with 50 mph wind gusts could result in
        MAJOR widespread power outages.

        This could become a very very serious situation.

        It will be bad enough with the heavy wet snow, we don’t
        need big time winds to go with it.

        1. I’m with you OS. I’m not falling for the warmer solution. The trend this winter has been to keep storms east as Mark alluded to. I don’t think this will be the exception. High winds combined with heavy wet snow = a lot of trouble.

  66. I gtd 95% on this storm is snow for most. Euro is correct and with a block set up as such this will end up being a snow producer for most.

  67. Matt Noyes is all about the storm potential in March….Does it look really that BIG???

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Tho current guidance shows early March powerhouse storm 3/1 & just south, I expect a day later, farther north development

    1. I’m not even looking at March right now. I’m extremely concerned regarding this weekend event which could prove devestating for some vulnerable locations.

      1. Matt has been really hung up on that 3/1 storm. We all agree the pattern is loaded but that’s still too far out for me to pump it up. (That’s for next Monday right)

        1. You got it. Let’s get through this storm first. This storm is going to be difficult to handle as it is if the EC verifies.

  68. Euro has a strong storm that has been rending colder. Mark I am surprised you think warmer. unless euro is incorrect can’t give up on it.

  70. Btw anyone who does not think we have a high take a closer look bc there is one there just not a powerhouse but just enough IMHO.

  71. Have to crack up at bz posting a map saying 12+ but nothing south of Boston. It gives people an idea that no snow is coming there. But then Todd tweets out other stuff.

  73. Channel 5 posted 2 potential snow maps on noon report. “Model 1″ gave Boston 8” and “Model 2″ gave 12”. North and west of Boston and south and east of Boston got the usual adjustments.

  75. JR on Channel 7 not willing to put up a map, but cautiously threw out 6-12″ which was sort of an easy way out. Don’t fault him for not committing though.

  77. I think its comical to see peoples thoughts on the storm change from this morning to now. The king spoke over night and everyone was on board but as soon as the Nam and GFS come in everyone starts to wonder. The King will win!

  78. If the EURO comes in slighlty warmer then will have to see if a trend is developing here. If this storm affects us I think everyone will see snow at some point during the event.

    1. I highly doubt that a warmer Euro will give us a trend. In fact, the pendulum is likely to swing a couple of times until the models get it nailed.

  79. I saw no noon news today, but people are putting out accumulation maps for a foot plus on Wednesday, for a Saturday Night /Sunday event?

    Seriously, I need to get the ‘F’ out of what I am doing….

    3. Yes Channel 5, gave a couple estimates of 8 or 12″; Channel 4 gave a foot in Boston but gave a little nod to north and west of town; Channel 5 threw out 6-12″ just to appease everyone.

      If I were a TV met right now, I would say an inch or more. 🙂

  80. Hadi/arod – my point above is that this storm is not the blizzard of two weeks ago – it’s developing further north, tracking closer, has warmer air with it, and no strong high to the north. I agree cold air will get wrapped in and change everyone over to snow eventually and also agree its very possible that areas not too far NW and W of Boston stay all snow and get slammed, but for us here in CT as well as RI and SE/Coastal MA, the results from this storm are going to be much different than the blizzard. It won’t be an all snow event in these locations – the first half of the storm will have rain or mix, cutting down on the total snow accumulation.

      1. I’m looking at overall trends and to me, this feels like a closer track/warmer solution. I think the GFS has the right idea this time around and we are seeing the Euro trend towards that with the 12z run.

    2. Agreed until you said “tracking closer.” The surface low does not track closer as downstream blocker ‘tracks’ it almost due east. There will be an H present, albeit weak, which will allow for cold air to bleed into a storm that has plenty of juice to already allow for dynamic cooling. The EURO will prevail.

      Additionally, even if the EURO jogged a bit closer to the coast, we are still FIVE DAYS OUT! I expect models to jog a bit. It only matters what occurs in the end–not what models forecast 5 days prior to an event.

      1. Just look at the latest Euro – it made a significant jog closer. And unfortunately its Wed PM with the storm starting Saturday evening, so we are more like 3 days out from the start of the event. I think models are locking in on a warmer solution.

        1. Even if it so-called trended, it’s still 5 days out. Wouldn’t count on a warmer solution verifying. I’ll eat my words if i’m wrong but something tells me i won’t be.

          1. It’s comical if you think models are “locking in” on anything this far out. This will be more of a Sunday storm as the surface low slows. We are just shy of 100 hours prior to start time.

      1. Mark. Remember, we are 5 days out!! Don’t fear anything until we are within a day or two of the event at the earliest. The EURO can forecast OTS or a rainstorm. I’m not buying it!

      2. It’s in my line of thinking, still early I’ll still evauate and wait for any real input but I think we r seeing models trending, again early so will c

        1. Retrac, only initially perhaps. Careful not to fall into model hugging too much. It will give you a headache since models will jog around a bit. Overall, with a blocking set up in place, it will be very difficult to get a coastal hugger in here. I’m not going for it.

          1. Nope – no model hugging here. Just saying this is starting to smell to me like a classic spring-like snowstorm with Heaviest amounts N/W of 495.

            Will be interesting how NWS eventually blends this thing.

            I think I mentioned earlier Euro will jog around no more than 25-50 miles as we move along IMHO. Not sure how this matches up with latest run.

            1. Retrac, the latest EURO wants to track the surface low closer to the coast; however, it still take the 850 line as far south as parts of the south shore. That alone tells me that this particular run of the EURO smells fishy to me.

  82. Latest NWS tweet… All aboard the Euro 12Z Express, tooot tooot: @NWSBoston: Latest guidance suggest a significant winter storm late Sat into Sun. Details are uncertain but heaviest snow may be confined to interior.

    1. This is only part of the story but “could” validate arod’s hypothesis. One thing’s for sure, there will be a rain/snow line set up and 50 miles one way or another is going to make a HUGE difference for a lot of people.

      1. Mark. I will say it again. The surface low appears closer to the coast but will hit a brick wall before being forced due east which is why the majority of the area will see significant snow out of this. Is it possible that the jackpot is over the Worcester Hills? Certainly! However, Boston will also see it’s very fair share 😀

    3. Now we know this particular run of the EC is partially flawed if it demonstrates a cape/nantucket track with an 850 line just northwest of pvd and taunton. Those two facts are not very consistent with one another. Look for the EC to wobble back to the east on future runs as we get closer to the event. If you recall on the blizzard of 2013, the EC lost the storm on one run before reverting back to form prior to the event. These jogs are quite common and can easily fool people who solely rely on models to depict an accurate forecast. I’m sure TK is not jumping on the warm bandwagon just yet 😀

      2. Heavy precip. keeping that 850 thickness tight to the storm IMO. B.L. is what this storm is going to be about. Higher interior amounts would be because of better ratios not better qpf.

        We have so far to go…….

        1. True but ratios won’t be that much better inland vs coastal at height of the storm. Somewhat higher snow ratios inland along with higher qpf along the coast (due to closer storm proximity) will cancel each other out. Weak H to the north coupled with strong dynamic cooling will change any mix quickly over to heavy snow almost everywhere.

          1. B.L. Not a huge issue due to ocean temps in the upper 30’s (vs the mid 40s in December). Additionally, wind direction will turn northeasterly at height of storm so any initial marine layer issue will be short lived with the exception of the immediate coast line, south east MA, CC and the south coast.

          2. How deep is the snowcover inside of 128 right now A-Rod? Just wondering about potential initial snowmelt on warmer ground Coastal Plain.

            Still 6-10″ + – here if I had to guess so protective base in place. All this stuff matters when you’re at the margins.

            1. Still a good half a foot +. Ground temps certainly not an issue as it is plenty cold enough. I don’t think that will be of concern.

              1. Ok – just wondered. Nights have been cold too. Just trying to get a handle on all the players on the field.

      1. Kidding aside DS, an OTS solution could be more plausible than a coastal hugger given the extent of downstream blocking in conjunction with a weak H to our north and east 😀

  85. Euro text output for Boston = 2.14″ QPF

    The big question – how much falls as snow?? Even if only a half, still looking at a foot or more.

  86. Def leaning towards a rain along and east of I95 corridor and wet snow north and west of 495, not written in stone but it looks right all things considered

          1. I’m not a big writer I could get more detailed and stuff and prolly should but I just say it a way maybe that it’s always sound like that, I think tommorrow we will know the rain snow lines bc models will come to a consensus much earlier, there will be a little wavering on models but I’ll wait till tommorrow for any adjustments, take it easy ds

    1. Not that I can recall – and so far out too. Makes we wonder if someone is fooling with us.

      B.T.W. a closer storm track might dry slot someone.

      1. You nailed it retrac! I was just about to say that a dry slot has me more concerned than mixing issues!

      2. That also crossed my mind. There is a lot that can go awry with this setup. It is not as clear cut as the Blizzard where the only question was whether we were going to get 18 or 30″ of snow. Need to sit back and watch this for another day or so before we lock into a solution. My confidence remains low for a huge snow event here in CT as well as RI and SE MA. I have much more confidence for areas along and north of the Pike.

  88. Just reviewed the 12Z Euro utilizing Wundermap.

    There was a comment above about this run being inconsistent. I don’t think so.
    I think that the 850mb temps are reflecting the Dynamic Cooling present during
    this intensifying system.

    At 93 hours, one can see the 850 mbtemps beginning to collapse to the S&E. (Never even close to going North of Boston). By 96 hours 850 mb temps collapsed all the way
    to S coast and the cape. By 99 hours ALL of SNE except the outer cape are WAY
    under 32F or 0C. And beyond that hour, 850 temps become an icebox. 😀

    Even though the system on this run is closer to the coast, it is more potent and thus
    is cranking out its own COLD air at a faster rate.

    Btw, I am dying to see the final qpf on this run. Looking at Wundermap, it looks
    to be HUGE as in something like 2-3 inches for immediate Boston area.

    😀 😀

      1. OS. You just may be right as to why the collapsing of the 850 line. Perhaps the EC is consistent. Good way to look at it.

  89. From our friends at New England Regional Weather Service! (Yay Scott!)

    “After a 3″ snow event last night at Lyndon State College, we turn our attention to the next event. Today’s 12z model data is in great agreement that we will be significantly impacted by a potent nor’easter. The track looks to be over or inside the benchmark, which means we will likely have mixing issues along the coast line of Southern New England. This may even make it’s way to the Boston area, limiting snowfall there.
    At this point, it’s too hard to pinpoint where the rain/snow line will set up, but with an easterly wind to start, there will be a coastal front setting up along eastern Mass. That would lead to a rain to snow scenario in the Boston area as winds eventually switch over to the Northeast. Inland areas of central and southern New England have the best chance of receiving over 6″ of snow. Northern New England will be on the northern edge of this. More updates to come.”

      1. Remember, Scott is in the public eye on Facebook now. Being responsible is the name of the game! Good for him!

    1. Oh,

      Didn’t see that. I knew it was substantial.

      btw, I think the bulk of it will fall as snow.

      This could be a situation where Hadi and I could see snow, while
      Logan has a mix or even rain for awhile. 😀
      OR we have mix and switch over much sooner than Logan.

      It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

      FWIW
      Last evening Todd mentioned SNOW and did not utter the word rain.

      😀

      1. OS. Certainly just inland areas could see most if not ALL SNOW while Boston could be dealing with more mixing issues since it is along the immediate coast line. As I said earlier, the only regions that could be significantly impacted by mixing issues are the immediate coast line, SE MA, CC and the south coast. Mixing for just inland areas from just inside 95 and westward should be brief before changing over to very heavy snow.

  91. Euro text output for Boston….

    12Z FEB20
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    SAT 18Z 23-FEB 2.8 -4.4 1023 67 72 0.00 554 536
    SUN 00Z 24-FEB 0.8 -2.9 1019 90 98 0.05 552 537
    SUN 06Z 24-FEB 1.2 -1.9 1010 99 100 0.46 547 539
    SUN 12Z 24-FEB 1.3 -2.4 1000 99 97 0.66 539 539
    SUN 18Z 24-FEB 1.1 -5.8 997 94 100 0.67 531 534
    MON 00Z 25-FEB -1.1 -9.0 1005 84 100 0.30 531 527

        1. OS. Respectfully, only extreme SE MA and CC is in at 5:1 while the majority of SNE in orange comes in at 10:1 with 15:1 north and west of Worcester. Have another look.

            1. Sure, I agree with that. Although I have
              seen snow with less than 5:1, but it doesn’t usually last long as it either switches to rain or it drys out. 😀

          2. You are reading this differently than I am. 😀

            I see white extreme South Shore (no snow), South Coast and Cape. I see 5:1 from there to about Worcester and N&W of Boston. I see 10:1 beyond that.

            1. I agree with OS. if you look at the scale, the dark blue at the top should correspond to the highest number. And the white at the bottom of the scale would be less than 5. Just my opinion. :-/

              1. I disagree. The white would be from 0-5:1, the orange from 10:1-15:1 and the red from 15:1 up to a max of 20:1. It’s a range. Not a number 😀

              1. I’m just posting the map.

                For Worcester, as you yourself said, it’s a range, therefore for
                Worcester it would be closer to 10:1, something like 8 or 9 to 1.

                Cheers

                1. I made a typo, ha ha. White 0-5:1, pink 5:1-10:1 and red 10:1-15:1, so essentially we are reading it the same way 😉

            3. So using your theory, the snow:water ration in Berkshires, NH and VT would be 10:1??? We definitely agree to disagree 😀

  92. Reading other text output:

    Providence, RI 1.63″ QPF of slop (snow to rain to snow)
    Westfield MA 1.76″ QPF all snow.
    Windsor Locks, CT 1.66″ QPF all snow but just barely and a very wet snow with low ratios.

  93. I’m ready for whatever this snowstorm brings! I went out and bought the mother of all snowblowers this morning. A 30 inch Husqvarna with all the bells and whistles. Bring it!

      1. I’m pretty excited about it. It was a real trip getting it home. Had to rent a bigger truck to get it home because it wouldn’t fit in my SUV. I started it up and tried out the power traction. Holy smokes! It took ME for a walk!

    2. April 14th, the temp of the water in pool is usually about as cool as when we go to Hampton beach ocean in mid July, high 50’s, I won’t go in but the kids use esp when we start getting into May, I just like to get it done

      1. I used to start opening the pool on Red Sox opening day at Fenway. Cold or not, it makes me feel good to get it done.

          1. Well, I open it early to get the water cleared up and the pump going for a few days to circulate chemicals. The water stays clean with a weekly shock and is pretty much ready to go once the weather warms up. Filter and pump don’t go back on until then.

  95. What concerns me is that amount of heavy wet snow and add some wind could lead to power outages.
    For CT I expect mostly rain before a brief change to snow for the shoreline. Central CT mix going over to snow. Northern CT should be mostly snow especially hill towns north and west and north and east of Hartford.
    As I said earlier I think everyone will see snow at some point during this event should it pan out.

  97. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
    Rain/snow line will be near or just south of Boston for the first half of the storm (Sat. Nt)

    1. I agree with that and then 850 collapses. Southwest, west and northwest of Boston will remain mostly all snow for the duration.

      1. Yes, me too. But I think it does set up South of Boston, however, Logan, sticking out in the Water, who knows???

  98. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ
    @SurfSkiWxMan true and ocean has cooled significantly…not a deal breaker anymore.

    1. Again, I agree with that. Ocean temps in the upper 30’s does not create much of a marine layer as it would if ocean temps were in the mid-40’s. The BL this go around is overrated.

  99. Euro snow plots are sweeeet. 18″ basically everywhere except right at the coast and S/E of say Hopkinton maybe and SE from there.

    Snowpack increases to 36″ over the period.

  102. Just woke from a nap 🙂 and look at the king. Again I totally agree in colder solution for a lot of the area. The blocking will stop this storm in its tracks. Lets watch over the next 24 hours where that high sets up. I think mix/rain will be confined to south of providence line. This smells a lot like April Fools storm.

    1. But still paints a very realistic 2″ of QPF. Notice that the FIM paints a brickwall stopping the northward progress of the surface low and deflecting it almost due east from there 😀

  104. This rain snow line debate is fruitless 72/96 hours out. Being locked in on a solution this far out is not great.

    1. I wouldn’t lock in on anything at this point but it is appearing more and more likely that a classic, slow moving, potent nor’easter will paint much of the area with heavy amounts of wet, pasty snow while forming the infamous rain/snow line along the southeastern coastal plane. I wouldn’t expect much deviation from what actually occurs. Could be uglier than the blizzard.

      2. I am in total agreement with this assessment.

        The impact may be more severe than the infamous blizzard.

        Heavy wet snow with accompanying wind spells big time Trouble.

    2. Cool. Thanks Hadi.

      We’re right in there!!!

      Btw, this looks good to me. Of course, always subject to change, espeically
      this far out. 😀

      1. I can’t see the map from work. Does it include the southwestern suburbs of Boston? And what does it say for the city?

      2. That actually paints 18-24 inches where Hadi and I are, of course,
        it would probably be on the lower end of the range due to ratios.

        Impressive, just the same.

          1. You’re right there. Right on the line of demarcation between 18-24 and 12-18.
            Actually, IF I am placing the towns correctly, Westwood is in it and Norwood
            is not. 😀 😀 😀

        1. JJ- that map would depict 3-6″ for the shore. 6-12″ north of a Danbury-Waterbury-Meriden-Norwich line, and greater than 12″north of a Torrington-Avon-Windsor-Tolland line if I am reading it correctly. As I said earlier, I think we are going to see a huge variation in snow totals across CT.

            1. 8-12 inches is going to seem minor after 30 inches I had with the blizzard.
              The heavy wet snow is what I am concerned about and the possiblity of power outages.

              1. JJ – I actually screwed up on those totals. The 6″ line is closer to the shore and the 9″+ line actually falls north of a Danbury/Waterbury/Meriden line. In any event, I agree – a heavy, pasty snow. I think I am going to remove my mailbox to prevent it from getting anhialated by our friendly snow plow drivers.

  107. Continued sharp cutoff in the snow totals south of the CT/RI border and south of Taunton on the 12z Euro. My town is right there in the borderline zone. I could see myself coming in with as little 5″ or as much as 15″ depending on where that rain/snow line sets up at the start of the storm.

    1. Arod, if I am reading correctly:
      Snow to rain to snow in both Providence and Taunton with 6-12″. Mostly snow in Woonsocket with brief changeover – 12″+

        1. So even PVD and Taunton gets in on the action. It’s a classic nor’easter with mixing along the coast. I’m not too worried about a rain/snow line just outside of Boston.

  109. Philip… To answer your question above: yes.

    Of course I’m not on any bandwagon yet, but I will say that I have a feeling the Euro is going to nail it again.

  110. So just having read all of the comments is it fair to say I have to give up on the hope that it will be 6 inches in Framingham?

    Two questions. Is the wind as strong with this? Is the snow going to be wet even into the interior – say this area?

    Thank you!

    2. Vicki. Very little chance of you coming up short of at least a foot of snow. You will likely receive much more than that even. Since the temps will be marginal, snow:water ratios on average will be lower across the board with this storm. I still see a good 10:1 – 12:1 ratio for your area so it will be much heavier than the powdery snows you have experienced in the blizzard. Winds will be an issue, perhaps not quite as strong. However, moderate winds combined with heavy wet snow = widespread power outages.

      1. Thank you arod – repair group has several feet of the ceiling open in two rooms and pipes exposed that sit only inches from the outside wall not to mention sheetrock off two room exterior walls. This should be interesting.

  111. I live in Lynn, Mass. on the north shore about 3 miles from the beach and 10 miles north of Boston. Wondering what kind of numbers I will see in terms of snow.

    3. According to the Euro Snow map posted above, you also are
      on the line between 18-24 and 12-18. Figure “about” 18 inches or so.

      But please remember, this is based on a model run, 3 1/2 – 4 days prior
      to an event. We’re just monitoring it from run to run, looking for trends
      and trying to figure out what we might get. 😀

  113. Here is the 18Z NAM snowfall map through hour 84 Only.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Wind gusts to this hour:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=GUSTM&hour=084

    Precip type at 84 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=084

    Surface/850mb:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=084

    In short, it looks like the NAM has come around and wants to keep the storm
    South of us and keep it mainly a SNOW event MA/CT?RI border Northward. 😀

  114. Hi guys, I am really excited about this storm, however the whole heavy wet snow power outage situation, not soo much on that lol. One thing i noticed, or have noticed should i say that the snowstorm in the Midwest was predicted on Sunday and god did they get it right or what. Why is it always New England that Models have hard time getting it right even with 2 days out, yet folks in the Midwest get the forecast right withing 5 days or so? of course the unpredictable weather is what makes me a fan of weather in New England, but i guess my question is why is it always difficult here, but in the Midwest they never have this uncertaintley.

    1. Im not sure i know the whole answer to that question, but to your point about the midwest. I remember a big storm earlier in the winter, the first real storm in the midwest, Chicago was forecast to get a dumping of snow after 200 something days of no snow. Well, turned out, the forecast was wrong. It rained and was supposed to turn to snow but it never really did. I dont think they even ended up with measurable snow out of that storm. Yes NE is harder to forecast, but parts of the midwest has its troubles too, but i do agree, not nearly as much.

    2. Kane. For one, the midwest doesn’t have an ocean to deal with. That in and of itself creates issues i.e. marine layer issues. Secondly northeast storms often have gulf of mexico and atlantic origins further complicating matters. Third, north east storms often rely on phasing of the northern and southern jet as opposed to midwest storms. In summary, here in the Northeast there are many more ingredients that must be taken into account in order to accurately depict a forecast.

    3. Bc just a few miles makes all the difference (ocean) plus it’s possible that places like pembroke could get mainly rain but 30 miles NW gets a foot,

  115. Ha! Thanks for all the input guys! Not crazy about the answers, but hey… The truth hurts sometimes. I’m just wishing that these big storms wouldn’t hit when I have to commute back and forth between home and work. It sucks.

    1. Wow up to 2.5″ of qpf Boston south (that is if I’m reading it like I am reading the snow ratio chart OS) 😀 😀 😀

      1. And in the purple area it actually says 2.71″ of precip so we should be reading this chart just like we read the snow ratio chart 😀

      2. 😀 I’m reading that exactly the same way you are! 😀

        That’s a ton of qpf!!

        So all of the models are painting pretty much between
        2 and 2.5 inches of qpf. We’ll have to see what the NAM
        comes in with when it is out far enough.

        I wonder if we will see 5 foot snow totals again??? lol. 😀

        1. But OS, the way you’re reading it, the dark purple area indicates 2-2.5″ of qpf. The way I would read it would indicate 2.5″ + and if you look at the map there is an (x) within the dark purple area with a number 2.71.” Catch my drift?

          1. I see that. I’m still reading it correctly.
            Look at the one a bit to the N&E. It has an X
            with 2.45 inches in that same color.

            What is happening, is within that color, there
            are a couple of small blotches of the next color
            (2.5-3.0 inches) One where your X and 2.71 is, and
            another a bit to the N&E within the same larger next color down.

            Either way, it’s a ton. 😀

  118. This is REALLY Freaky. Virtually ALL of the models are in agreement.

    I wonder if anything will go wrong???? 😀

    2. Tell me about it! I thought u had posted the euro by accident, it looked identical, then i looked and sure enough, it was the cmc!

  119. Hmmm

    15Z SREF snow ratios at 87 hours:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013022015/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f087.gif

    I guess we could figure out approximately where the rain/snow line sets up,
    according to this model. 😀

    Well, actually, here it is:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013022015/SREF_LIKELY_CZYS__f087.gif

    So how does this model get the Rain farther North?
    Does it factor in the marine layer? Using the GFS as partial input?
    I’m curious. Anyone know?

    1. Seriously, the way the storm is progged to track, that rain/snow line
      should be oriented East-West. It is not, it slopes up along the MA coast to Boston. This would suggest to me, that this model is factoring in a marine layer.

      Thoughts?

      1. Due to initial close proximity of the surface low to the coast, there will be a east-southeasterly LLJ. However, as the low tracks easterly, the marine influence quickly becomes overwhelmed by crashing heights secondary to dynamic cooling.

        1. Yes. Again well understood.

          Just saying that this particular model has the initial
          rain/snow line farther North than others. 😀

    2. OS. That is the INITIAL rain/snow line which still remains a hair south of Boston. That rain/snow line won’t remain put for the entire storm. Look for that line to crash south and east as the storm moves along.

      1. Oh, of course. I understand that.

        I’m simply saying that they must be factoring in that
        marine layer to get that kind of orientation. 😀

    3. This models junk until the rain snow line is well south and east, idk I don’t buy these big amounts, will c there will be trends over the next 5 days, there will be more rain esp south and east of Boston, I feel confident on that, north and west will get snow and hope it all stays up there and not down here in the n attleboro wrentham area

  120. It seems BZ has numbers on a map but not WHDH and WCVB – hmmm – I’ll be happy if I just get their foot at this point. I have been trying to figure out why I am not more excited about the snow. I love snow. I have always loved snow. I think the problem is we are not seeing an average snow storm as we did in December. We are seeing two back to back (potential) super type storms. With them comes devastation for some and on top of the Halloween storm and Irene and last Halloween it becomes a bit worrisome.

      1. I’m worried about the areas that were so hard hit two weeks ago and about more areas being added to that list. It’s hard to be excited when that is now a regular occurrence.

        1. Me either. This time around, I want no snow. To think ANOTHER huge storm might be the week after that (I know, too far out). The heavy snow especially is not good for roofs. I’ll be missing my old ranch after this one!

            1. Yeah…I felt the last one was too close to the one before, and now this one is too! HAHA. That and the weekends…man, another day stuck in the house with the kids and their “unplayed with” Christmas stuff. 🙂

              1. Don’t worry there’s not many people right now that want more snow, sportshub and weei have already said they r sick of the crap, keep it away

  121. Happy to report moderate snow at Smuggs, up to about 6 inches and upslope snow looks like its in full force. Skiing was great today.

      1. Don’t forget, that is ONLY up to 1AM on Sunday.
        Also, as we discussed above, we both think it “may” be
        OVER compensating for the marine layer. We shall see.

        Personally, I think the R/S line sets up somewhat Farther
        South and East.

  123. Been enjoying reading everyone’s posts. I have to be up in Burlington and Woburn on Friday through Saturday for a bank conversion and am hoping to be back in the South Shore rain by early evening. What time do we think the snow will start north of Boston?

    1. Whose map is that? Todd’s? That seems extremely conservative and
      even MORE premature. Isn’t there medication for that?

      2. Unless I’m going nuts and I may well be – it was 8-12 right to coast when I posted above that BZ had a map out. Did they downgrade along coast in the past 15 minutes?

  125. Super irritating to see some news stations ALREADY putting out snowfall maps. I will always stick with Matt Noyes when I’m flipping through the channels.

    1. Whatever they put up now, they’ll have to change later for sure. Said hello to you on FB. Or at least I think I did.

    2. Amen to that Scott. INSANE this far out.

      In the old days, they would say: “Chance of snow on Sunday”

      Sometimes they would put a modifier to it and say:
      “Could be significant” to prepare the public.
      NEVER would they put numbers out this far ahead.

      What kind of pressure are the Mets under from station management?
      It must mean their jobs if they don’t do it. Sad, Very sad indeed!

  128. Something to think about!

    Here is a special map from the 15Z SREF. MAXIMUM 3 hour snow totals
    for hour 87 or the time period 10PM Sat to 1AM Sunday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013022015/SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f087.gif

    By Contrast here is the MINIMUM snow totals for the same period:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013022015/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN_f087.gif

    Obviously what actually happend will be somewhere in between.

    But think about it IF the maximum were realized??????? Holy )(!@U*()#()&!@()#&
    Batman!!!1 😀 😀

    Just thought I’d throw that out there.

  129. Hadi, Happy to hear you’ve been having some decent snows. I thought the set-up would be good for mountain snow up north, yesterday (late) and today.

    I have no clue what will happen this weekend, except for the fact that there will be lots of precipitation. Temps don’t seem great for accumulating snow. Yet, some of the models seem to project large amounts, even in and around Boston. We shall see. I was wrong two weeks ago when I thought Boston would only get at most 15 inches (wound up with 25).

  131. Just read some of the comments on the BZ blog. Have not done this in a while. WOW there are some awful comments. I thought it was bad before but it is nothing comapred to what is posted today. Glad we have this blog

  132. Except for the few real snow lovers a very high percentage of people will actually be upset and mad about this if it snows, most r sick of it

    1. Definitely sick of it. Sick of stressing out over having to commute in it. Woukd rather be at home enjoying it. Wouldnt care as much if it snowed on my day off.

  133. 7 literally just put up their numbers too. This time around I’m surprised how few people I talk to even know there could be a storm.

  134. I know it’s the 18Z GFS…..

    Warmer Solution. 850mb 0C line almost up to Boston.
    Snow map is almost non-existent along the coast.

    A couple of maps in a moment.

    1. Exactly. I’m definitely not a model hugger so I’m not buying the 18z GFS. I never took the bait last time and certainly won’t this time either.

      1. Right.

        We’ll know more when the 0Z runs are out.

        Hope this doesn’t signal anything.

        18Z GFS GO AWAY!

  139. @MattNoyesNECN: Now on @NECN: Weekend storm: 6″+ seems quite likely thru the interior, 12″+ possible. Not like blizzard, heavy, wet snow.

  140. I am not naive about how the news gets pitched and I fully understand the need for ratings. Ratings are driven by viewership and viewership drives advertising revenues. But at this point, any/all maps could easily be 100% wrong — some of it seems unconsionable.

  141. I agree. Its a ratings-driven industry. Thats why I give them hell when they hype up storms that are 2 weeks out or use over-inflated models just to get a rise out of the viewers. Its not right.

  142. PB has 4-8 along the immediate coast line including the city, but he also has a large area of 8-12 a couple of miles away from the water. Interestingly, his highest snow totals are just that–8-12. Seems very underdone considering the amount of qpf models spit out.

      1. which is exactly why they should NOT post a snowfall map this far out. Maps 3 days prior should include light, moderate, heavy, snow, mix, rain and that’s it!

  145. Just saw Todd and his map on BZ. I don’t even want to discuss it!

    On a separate note, I am snowed out for the season. Enough. And the thought of heavy wet snow is ugly.

  147. @ToddWBZ: The QPF (Precip) is there with this storm but cold may not be…rain/wet snow will hold amounts down close to coast…still sizeable though.

  148. Here’s all you need to know — Pete B’s low end total for Boston is equivalent to Todd’s high end. One of them might as well throw out 18-24″ just to shake things up.

  152. This has nothing with who’s due. The Greenland block will not allow this storm to move as close as GFS shows. Again Euro is the way to go. How can anyone trust GFS with anything. Euro had this storm last week, lost it mid rSnge which is typical and now it’s back.

  155. TK must be going out of his mind seeing snow maps by the TV mets at such an early stage. It will be interesting though if he puts out at least some “early” estimates later this evening or just after midnight in the next blog. 😉

  156. He won’t do that until the 0z EC/GFS comes out at the extreme earliest and more like the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon.

      1. First blog sentence. I got a kick out of it when I read it too. Hi Emily. Maybe classes cancelled Monday ????

  158. Philip… It’s starting to get to the point where I’m getting used to it. I just stick to my guns. I have hinted at amounts in a general sense, based on the fact I’m pretty confident the Euro’s scenario is going to play out. It’s nailing these things left and right with very few exceptions lately.

    Emily… I love the term “slug”. Another term I use in weather for a slow-moving system is “amble”. Occasionally you’ll see me toss out “slogging”. Slogging is like ambling, only a little slower. 😉

    To those disgruntled with the media’s hype. Yes it is all about ratings and most of these met’s dislike having to put out the maps. Talking to these guys myself I have gotten a similar message from most of them. They’d rather wait. But the pressure on them to issue #’s is insane. And when the job is at stake, the quick weighing of options usually yields giving into the pressure of the business and sacrificing the morals inherent to most forecasters. This is why I’m glad I’m not on TV.

    2. Great explanation TK. Are you concerned about the EURO’s latest trend which favors a slightly warmer solution??? Do you feel this warmer trend will continue with the EC or will it trend colder IYHO?

      1. Also the 18z GFS has trended MUCH WARMER. I’m not buying it but with the warmer trend even with the EURO, it does raise an eyebrow.

        1. Can’t completely throw it out, but I think we’ll see a trend colder on future runs. This is normal. I notice the NAM is starting to build the high to the north a bit stronger. Yes I know it’s beyond 48 on the NAM but it’s still worth noting.

          1. I don’t,, I think the euro will be ever so slightly warmer or the same, ooz runs as always will be able to tell the story a little better, I’m not seeing snow south and east of Boston except at tail end,, I think Worcester to Nashua could be in for yet another sizable snowstorm, just not biting for the Boston/Providence corridor snowstorm yet 🙂

  159. Thanks for the high TK 🙂 I knew I saw something build in.

    Btw Todd answered me on twitter saying that they go low and the raise it if necessary. I told him how could he come out with a map 4-8 when euro says 12+. He said they will raise if needed.

  160. I said earlier this will be mostly snow and I will stick by that.

    Btw still thumping snow here. I guess it could snow for days here.

    1. How much is on ground, around here we got anywhere between a few inches to 8 or 9 inches left depending where u r in eastern mass

        1. I always forget woodshill weather summit, alot less here, bc of the drifting that occurred in blizzard alot of bare ground in places, there some farms I took a ride around here and there r acres of open bare fields but on edges u can see the compacted drift

  161. Don’t bite yet Charlie 🙂 each big storm you have not bitten we have been nailed so keep the trend going.

    1. Have u ever thought of moving there hadi, seems like u really like snow and cold and anything sking, just a thought 🙂

  166. well this storm is some what more complicated where does that rain/snowline reach. where ever it stays all snow 10+ inches could very well be possible and it will be the heivy wet snow.
    areas north of the mass pike.
    at the very beginning of the precipitation some locations of northeast mass could see some rain mixed in with the snow. but not for a long time. when the precipitation gets heivier by night fall all areas north of the pike is snow. ( heivy snow accumulation)
    south of the pike. it all depends on the snow/rain line.( moderate snow accumulation with pockets of heivy snow accumulation) it will be moving up and down west and east. the further south the less snow. snow line will collapse down to the canal/southshore but day break sunday. light snow accumulation with pockets of moderate snowfall across southeast mass. I do not even think the cape ,coastal rd and coastal ct will see much of accumulations.
    much can change expecially since its still 72 hours away. but the gfs has been hinting at this system for days now and the euro is now on the wagon as well. the further north you go the more powdery the snow is as well. ( 12 heivy wet snow compared to 2.5 feet of powder. .. hmm what would i take . i would take the 2 feet of powder. expecially if there is wind. please. 😛

    1. This snow ratios look around 8-10 to 1 in Mass, lets see what trends we have with models if there r any trends tonight and tommorrow, I think tommorrow nights 00z nam runs will give us a good indication on where the rain snow line sets up

  167. Just a thought, if we did happen to get 4-8 or 6-12 inches of snow this weekend and a couple of good doses of rain to finish the month we could have some minor flooding issues to start March, again it’s early and just a thought,

      1. What’s the current deficit? My guess would be about 6-8 inches. If so, we may make that up pretty fast with what’s coming this weekend and next, as well as all the in-between stuff.

  171. The current deficit for Logan as of today since Jan.1, 2013 = -1.28″

    The deficit for Logan as of Dec. 31, 2012 = -7.04″

    This is a case in which stats don’t tell the whole story. I suppose in a sense one could say that our current precip deficit is actually -8.32″ but of course climo stats don’t carry over to the following year.

  173. The NAM at 84hrs looks to take the Low right over Cape Cod but keeps the rain/snow line just south of Boston. Dropping about 1.50 of liquid.

  174. Reasonable run on the nam. Liking the high at 1028. Too far out at 84 to take much away except high and low track.

  175. I’m thinking that the nam is hugging the coast a bit to much and will trend colder. Also its at 84hrs which is way out of its range. I’ll stick with the Euro for now.

  176. NAM run is no good for CT, RI and SE MA. All the heavy precip looks to fall as mix/rain in those locations with lighter snows at the start and end of the storm. Boston mixes for awhile on that run too but not nearly as long. Jackpot for snow totals on that run looks to be Worcester County west and southern VT/NH.

    Low is tucked very close to the coast on that run.

  177. I do NOT like the NAM!

    Snow map to 84 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    It has the low tracking right over the Cape!
    Brings 850 mb freezing line almost to Boston.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013022100&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    However, the 1000-500 mb thickness is in about the same spot:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013022100/USA_PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb_084.gif

    Wind gusts at 84 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022100&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=084

    This is the NAM at 84 hours. It does not perform well at this range. Still MUCH
    better than the 18Z GFS.

    Where’s the Euro.

      1. as long as im in the red and orange color.. whic i am in that run. ) is is a great storm for me. one i get snow in my back yar. … two the skiing conditions will improve as well. Yet again. i like it when the cape and south shore gets rain usually means more snow for me 🙂 😛

  181. Don’t think it’s prudent to dismiss NAM and GFS. Not so much regarding precise details of the storm but the kind of precipitation, where the low tracks, and the temperature issues (which will occur with this storm. Where’s the cold? It’s here today and tomorrow, but really gone Friday and Saturday). I think the low does track closer to the coast than the benchmark, which will reduce the snow accumulation in Boston and along the coast to little or nothing. I’m going with Charlie on this one. I’m probably going to be dead-wrong, so don’t rely on me.

  182. Climotology tells us that this type of storm track does not favor heavy snows in the Boston-Providence corridor, SE MA, CT, and RI. A track over Cape Cod typically means significant rain or mixing in these locations and heavier snows focused in West/Central MA, southern NH and VT.

    As much I don’t like that run, I think it has the right idea. As I mentioned earlier today, there is too much working against this here for the major population areas: lack of warm in place, lack of strong high to the north, not enough cold air damming, strong E/SE flow off the ocean as the storm approaches. Not to mention the entire model suite today has trended warmer and closer to the coast with this system.

    The interior areas of central New England and eastern New York have consistently missed out on the jackpot with these noreasters this season and I think they will finally get their turn with this one.

  183. My gut feeling say that this storm is not for boston, its mostly an interior storm, Boston will probabily end up with 6 inches or little more, There isn’t any real cold air in place, and we can’t just ignore the gfs and nam, but i hoipe i am wrong, lets on the wait 0z runs
    Gfs is at 12 am
    and euro is at 130 right?

  184. I mentioned the word “due” as in Central and Northern NE is due for a major storm. I meant what I said. There has not been a major storm in North country in a while. That is unusual to say the least. North country is due to be clobbered, and they might be.

  185. Joshua/Kane/DS and dare I say Charlie? – I think we are speaking the same language on this one. Hope we are wrong and things trend back colder.

    Kane, the GFS starts rolling at 10:30, UKMET and Canadian after 11, and the Euro starts at 1AM.

    1. I will bow to the King if it starts to trend otherwise. But I’m having a hard time seeing that happen. For me, this is screaming rain on the coastal plain. Maybe not all rain, but a lot of rain.

      I genuinely hope I’m wrong! The only thing winter rain is good for is getting the salt off the streets and sidewalks.

    2. GFS should be interesting. If it continues the warmer solution trend, I’m staying with my prediction of no snow at all in Boston and along the coast (just 1-2 inches of cold rain). If it says something completely different from what it did this afternoon, we’re back to square one. It’s not as if I fully trust GFS, or any model for that matter. But, with the others heading in a certain direction, seeing GFS continue to go in the same direction is likely telling us something.

  186. Love how different our thoughts are. This what makes this place great. I am still in a camp of further east and colder. Blocking is not seen by the NAM the way the euro shows it. Yes you should dismiss NAM at 84 hrs IMHO.

    1. I agree about the NAM. But if it were trending colder, we would probably all be screaming “BUT LOOK AT THE TREND?!?!?!?!?”

      That’s what I’m doing. Looking at models trending warmer…for now!

  187. Charlie calls for rain and then changes 24 hours when it’s known what is going to happen. Sorry Charlie 🙂 no personal offense.

    1. Amen.

      My predictions have been so poor this winter that even I’m not entirely convinced of what I’m saying at this point. Yet, I’m sticking to my guns, based on the data I’ve seen, and we’ll see what happens.

  190. Don’t forget the blizzard we got in 2010 right after Christmas and we didn’t have a cold high to our north and everyone was going back and fourth on where the rain/snow line would come up the coast and it stayed around plymouth south. During that period we had a strong negative NAO. In addition most of the storms in that 6 week period we didn’t have a cold HIGH to the north but just a strong negative NAO so I believe the models maybe advertising more of a mix and change to rain and will end up being a much colder storm. Just my 2 cents.

    1. Good point, TJ and Hadi. But, you still need some real cold air. I know I’m repeating myself, but this storm looks a lot like a March/April storm. Certainly NAO is negative, but often when NAO is negative the March/April storms just don’t produce much snow at the coast. A lot in the interior, but less nor nothing at the coast. Furthermore, my thinking is that despite the blocking, the low will track closer to the coast than the benchmark, making it even more difficult to snow at the coast. Blocking does not necessarily mean the low will go over the benchmark. It can still go over Cape Cod.

  193. hadi i have a question that has been bothering me, what does it mean when the high has a different number, sometimes i see a high with “1024” and now you just said its “1036” ? i am guessing the higher the number is the colder the high is?

  195. im hoping just a small movement east. but not to much. i want the hieviest stuff north of the pike and north and west of boston. Had it with all the storms giving areas south of boston the larger amounts.

  196. Mark and Josh…It won’t be long before you see it the way the EURO sees it…Don’t get burned. The EURO always prevails and in this case, it makes much more sense than a coastal hugger. Nite all!

      1. True, but it’s too warm. Don’t think it gets to 32 in Boston Saturday night (surface temp). Might not get to 32 all weekend, which means rain/mix/ in Boston, with no accumulation. I’m rarely this confident in a prediction, but I’ll go way out on a limb to say that there will be no accumulating snow in Boston, at least out to 128, possibly further. Nite all!

    2. Watch out mark if your thinking anything but snow arod and hadi will say your wrong, they see it through a snow lense haha 🙂

  200. Yeah GFS actually looks weaker and yet throwing more warmth further inland. Also drops less qpf than 18z run. We still have sometime to figure out where the low is going to travel.

  201. I think this run of the GFS is garbage. The trend today has been to make this storm stronger and bring it closer to the coast. The GFS has it weaker and further south, but the warmth makes it further north due to the storm being less amplified and less able to draw down the cold air.

  202. A comical run. The GFS is up to the same old inconsistent non-sense. The EURO is the only model to pay attention to as I have been saying.

  203. I could see the 0C line end up positioning itself in that location along the Pike or perhaps slightly south along the MA/CT/RI border, but think the storm ends up stronger and tucked closer to the coast than this run projects.

  204. the euro will trend warmer, as someone mentioned above, this is more like of later winter early spring storm, alisonarod i dont know why you are soo against the idea of it being warmer solution for boston, i am glad you are optimistic tho, of course i hope you are right, but lets face it, north country has been missing out on a lot of these storms, this one is definitely for them, all eyes on 0z euro run now

  205. As of 11:00 pm all TV mets are going with 4-8″ for Boston and 8-12″+ N&W.

    Can anyone recall when all mets in total agreement in snow amounts? IIRC even for the blizzard the numbers were off by a few inches either way.

    Now all we need is for TK to go along and this storm will be a done deal still 3 days out. 😉

  206. Joshua, I don’t agree Boston will see no snow at all. Boston will accumulate snow both at the start and end of the storm, I just feel there is at least a 6 hour period in between (perhaps when the heaviest precip is coming down) when it mixes with sleet and rain. This will cut down on accumulations in Boston significantly. I think the 6″ range for Boston is a good early call.

  207. If anyone caught the channel 4 news: at the beginning with the guy in the south end with the cute dog talking about dreading more snow? Guess whose family that was! 🙂

      1. Cool! You should have let the rest of us know you were going to be on and I would have watched! WBZ is actually the one Boston station I get here in northeast CT with Directv.

  208. If there is one thing everybody should know it’s that none of these runs are a final call.

    Model track error is generally greater than 25 miles this far ahead.

    And none of the TV guys should have had snow maps up tonight. Tomorrow night, at the earliest…

  209. The energy responsible for this storm is still off the pacific northwest coast on the 500mb charts. I think tomorrow the models will start to get a better handle how strong and how close to the coast it will actually be.

    I agree with Charlie on some places having bare ground around here. Mostly where the sun hits the strongest and the places that had the least drifts. I can’t imagine the parking lot mounds getting any higher at some businesses. They will be there until May!

  211. 0z Canadian is no good either. Lots of rain and mixing in SNE. Like the GFS, it has a much weaker storm (low doesn’t even get below 1000mb until it passes well SE of Nantucket) therefore it is unable to pull down the cold air.

  212. @HarveyWCVB: Expect inland snow Sat. nt., esp. north of The Mass Pike and most esp. along & north of route 2

  213. Well, even the 0z Euro has trended a bit weaker and further southeast, but not nearly to the extent of the other models. Still looks like a good hit on the Euro for areas north of the Pike and a decent backside thumping even for Boston and areas south of the Pike.

    Will be interesting to see what the models do over the next 48 hours. Still a long way to go.

  214. @HarveyWCVB: Expect mostly rain on Cape Cod Sat. nt., and wet snow, possibly mixed with rain in Boston Sat. Nt.

  215. @HarveyWCVB: The main snow potential for Bos. & the coast comes Sunday..colder air arrives as.winds shift to NE-N

  217. Hadi no offense and no reason to be upset with me bc I’ve been predicting rain since 3 days ago for Boston to Providence corridor and looks like that will be the case, it’s ok though I don’t mind it, I mean I can get on here and say u believe every model that shows snow and when r all outa options and there r no more models that say snow it’s then u say rain, works both ways hadi, still thinking rain here like I have been thinking, again it’s ok though hadi, I enjoy conversating 🙂

    1. Ik your not gonna be happy with rain in city so I expect some snow lovers backlash at me for saying rain, again though it’s ok, models r finding a consensus

    2. It’s like clockwork, u pick and chose which one is showing the most snow and go with that one, again it’s fine but if you want to talk about my tendencies, I would say yours r just as bad for picking models that show most snow

      1. oh no i like your area getting rain. it equals tk’s and my are to get hit harder 😉 just need to watch the snowline. if it reaches 495 then im not happy

  219. The 06z nam should come in slightly warmer than the ooz runs, I think the nam has the right idea, it looks like during the meat and potatoes of the storm it’s raining and I don’t think that rain snow line crashes bc the storm is moving over Nantucket or cape cod and into Maine

    1. A warmer trend today could just as easily go colder tomorrow. We know these models well enough to not make a final call 3 days out. 🙂

  220. I’m sure when I get on here tommorrow arod and hadi will be talking about the uk met if it says snow haha anyways I guess that’s enough busting, time to move on, hope to see u guys next week

  228. Right now it looks like areas north of the Pike have the POTENTIAL for warning level criteria snowfall.
    The Pike south looks like a mess. I don’t think everyone sees snow at some point during the event. If the low pressure center
    shifts a bit the warning level criteria will move further south.
    This will change but I am thinking a level 2 snow event for most the exception south and east of Boston which I am giving a 1 since I don’t see snowfall exceeding 4 inches.

  229. Watching TV mets this am on 4, 5 and 7, and all in agreement with swaths of 2-4″ on Cape and Islands, 4-8″ Boston and 8-12″ north and west. BUT the geographical placement of these 3 swaths are in different places depending on what each believes to be the rain/snow cutoffs.

    I think the Euro is giving Boston about 8″ at the moment and the same to Worcester.

    1. I hope NStar and the other utilities are gearing up for this event. I have to give them some credit, for the mess they encountered in Marshfield and other coastal south shore communities, I thought they did a pretty good job last week.

  230. A few thoughts …..

    If anyone wants to step away from the models for one second, 🙂 , check out the current weather and the storm in the Plains. A large part of the state of Kansas is getting dumped on with heavy snows and the radar returns are impressive for snow….. Just south of that, extends a line of showers and thunderstorms.

    Weatherwise, I’m looking forward to tomorrow locally. Light winds and lots of sun, I suspect anyone having a chance to enjoy it for a bit will be feeling a yearning for spring.

    In the short term, I have no idea whats going to happen this weekend. A lot of blocking already to our northeast, suspect the timing of the weekend event will slow even further. Longterm, yuck city ! Lots of chilly, damp, non spring weather. Now the negative NAO shows up, errrrrrrrrr !!

  231. Here in CT not one of our stations has given us a snowfall accumulation map. Our stations don’t start putting one together until 48 hours prior to the storm. When I was going to college up in MA I was surprised how early the local stations put up accumulation maps. I remember the first time I saw this I told my mom and said mom this never happens in CT. Up here they put there maps out 3 4 days in advance.

      1. Reading weather stuff around the Internet and pretty much got the feeling that KS is getting snow bombed.

        1. From Mansfield , Ma but I am presently at a convention
          in Kansas City flying out Friday am. This has been one heck of a trip- Delay in Boston Going out from Logan on Last Sunday to an Explosion a block away in KC to now a major snowstorm here. I will try to give you my observations. Thanks all- Looking forward to getting out of here and back home

  233. Glad to wake up and see the euro 🙂 I think we will continue to see a colder scenario as the nam and GFS catch on to the blocking.

    1. Actually I am afraid you’re right. I know you’re a snow lover but ugh and I’m looking at the models and seeing some sort of weird event next weekend too.

      Haven’t been on FB much but will get back to your request shortly. Thanks.

  236. All channels have cut there accumulations back and r no longer talking 12+ , more like 4-8 in city and 3-6 here, Alot of this is possibly at tail end, I’ll be honest I’m happy there not going the other way, out to breakfast with my guys, be back later

  237. Geeez I woke up bc it’s so light out at 6:30 am, sunset today 5:31pm, declination of the sun is like mid Oct so even when it’s 35 degrees with sun out it won’t be like a sunny mid jan day at 35 degrees, it will feel warmer and nicer out considering higher sun angle

  238. I am a snow lover but I call it how I see it. If I truly believed rain than I would say that. I don’t just wish rain or snow but rather look at the overall picture and apply my knowledge and give my thoughts. If I am accused of jumping on snow model than so be it. Looks like the euro has been the best overall this winter so if I use bc it shows snows than oh well. I nailed the last storm when many called it OTS or rain.

  239. Yes Charlie there will be rain but I doubt much in Boston. Really don’t know how it will play out down in PVD etc…

  241. Quick update posted. No details yet. Will get into that this afternoon…

    Have a great day everybody!

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