Trifecta

607 Comments

6:26PM

As I heard someone say earlier, we’re going to hit the Weekend Trifecta in regards to winter storms. We are not hitting any trifecta with computer models, as the 3 main ones are in great disagreement only 48 hours out from the storm. So, as I did previously, I’m sticking closer to the one most consistent and proven most accurate in recent events (though it has made some adjustments on the latest run which I am taking into account).

Before we get to the storm, we first have what’s left of a windy/cold Thursday to finish off and the winds will finally slacken as the night goes on and we’ll end up with a mostly clear and cold night, leading into a pleasant, bright, and chilly Friday (sometimes referred to as a “weather breeder day” or more commonly known as “the calm before the storm”). Whatever nature is breeding will be coming in lazily on Saturday in the form of a cloudy sky at first. The process taking place will be a  primary storm moving northeastward into the Great Lakes and a secondary storm being born on the Mid Atlantic Coast. The track of this secondary storm will be the key in determining how much precipitation falls, the positioning and movement of a rain/snow line, and ultimately the end result in terms of snowfall amounts. Whatever happens, I do not expect a whole lot of snow to be on the ground before midnight Saturday night. The bulk of the precipitation, in whatever form, will take place Sunday morning (in the 12 hours between midnight and noon), with it all winding down during Sunday afternoon and evening. With decent confidence I will say that heaviest snow amounts will take place north of the Mass Pike. I think spotty precipitation will take place any time from later Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening before growing steadier. Where rain is mostly is along and south of the Mass Pike and especially close to the coastal areas. As steadier precipitation gets underway later at night, this rain/snow line will be tough to determine and will become a now-casting situation, but what I expect is that it will hang on right along the South Shore of MA and across Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly coastal RI as well. Some mixing is possible in an area between this and an all snow area mainly along and north of Route 2. Eventually the rain/snow line will collapse to the southeast and areas that are raining will turn to snow. The amount of snow in these areas will depend on the timing of the change to snow. Taking all this into account and sticking to my general rule of not putting out snow #’s until about 48 hours prior to the start of an event, I will issue a best guess on final accumulations here…and keep in mind this will not fall all at once, it is a total amount of snow expected from the onset of spotty precipitation Saturday to the end of snow on Sunday night. Amounts may be nothing like what fell in the blizzard 2 weeks prior, but impact could be greater since it will be a heavier, wetter snow, tougher to move and more conducive to producing damage to trees and power lines. Accumulations expected from the Saturday night through Sunday evening event: 1-3 inches Cape Cod and the islands and right on the coastline of RI and Plymouth County MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere south of the Mass Pike, 6-9 inches north of the Mass Pike including southern NH, with isolated 10+ inches mainly in higher elevations.

A break comes Monday as the weekend storm will be gone and the atmosphere will be in the process of thinking about what to do with us for the end of February and to welcome March. I hear that it may be thinking about hiring a lion for the party… More later!

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 17-26, coldest inland valleys. Wind NW to N diminishing to around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40,  coolest in the hills northwest of Boston. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Mostly cloudy late. Lows 20-26. Wind light E.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy afternoon with spotty light rain or snow. Highs 35-42, mildest Cape Cod area. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to NE late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation becoming steadier, light to moderate early, moderate to heavy overnight, mostly rain/mix south of the Mass Pike, mix/snow to the north. Rain/snow line may move southeastward rapidly toward dawn. Temperatures falling slowly, mainly middle to lower 30s, some upper 20s well north and west of Boston. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH especially along the coast. Some coastal flooding possible east-facing shores around the 10PM high tide.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix becoming all snow, possibly heavy at times morning, tapering off in the afternoon and evening (see expected snow amounts above). Temperatures steady mainly upper 20s to lower 30s northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH especially along the coast. Some coastal flooding possible at north-facing shores late morning high tide.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix/rain at night. Low 25. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix likely. Low 32. High 36.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow likely. Low 30. High 34.

607 thoughts on “Trifecta”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I could handle 1-3 or 3-6 tops in Marshfield and I think they will have enough time to clean it up so that we can have school Monday.

  3. Once the morning clouds parted, I really noticed the strength of the midday sun.

    Its that time of year when if one has a chance, check out the sun right before sunset against a landmark near the western horizon. Then, a handful of days later on the next clear evening, check out the sunset again and watch how much the sun has moved to the north (right) on the horizon, relative to that landmark. Its amazing the change happening now as we approach, relatively speaking, the equinox.

  4. I think that Trifecta call was mine in a moment of “irrational exuberance”. I think O.S. might have had me wound up on something, I don’t know! 🙂

  5. Thanks TK! 😀 Great insight on the storm. I like your conservative approach. You definitely backed off a lot from your previous thinking but don’t blame you especially if 00z EURO run trends warmer.

    1. Hey A-Rod, one more 2m temp for you…..

      36th + – parallel (about NC/VA border), 2m temps will be 70 over the gulf stream. Can you see spring in that kind of air or what. All we need is a northern branch connection to that in early March and BOOM!

  6. Just read the NWS forecast discussion out of Boston. Quite confused as the discussion leans towards the 00z ECMWF, but contradicts their snowfall forecast product, which seems to align the with the 12z GFS.

    I am not in on any one solution or a forecast. I am pretty much in the camp of a later onset. Saturday after dark for the most part and then a moderate winter weather event that will encompass rain, mix, and snow.

    1. JMA. Respectfully, you seem pretty non-specific pertaining to your forecast. Care to put some numbers out there? I’m very curious.

      TK. Of course there is always a chance, but do you feel the EURO 12z has a good handle on this storm or is there room for a colder/stronger ooz run IYHO?

  7. Matt Noyes is predicting 3″ in Boston…Wow looks like its going to be to warm. Will see what happens alot of nowcasting will be going on.

  8. I will produce numbers at 36 hours out which is the early am forecast package tomorrow.

    I think a forecast of the potential for a moderate winter weather event 48 hours out is sufficient when there is significant disagreement among models anf forecasters.

    Forecasting is not a locker room size comparison contest abiut who can be bigger and bolder. For me it is about analyzing data and making a respomsible prognostication in a reasonable time sequence.

  9. I think the nam comes in ever so slightly colder, but won’t affect accumulations much, just my opinion 😉

  10. What I meant is there seems to be this one upmanship on who can predict the biggest snowpocalypse from the earliest possible time…

    Yes, I am a little snippy and annoyed today. Had to make some tough choices professionally this morning and afternoon.

      1. I’m not so sure he is referring to the blog comments. It’s one thing to do it here. It’s happening in media overly so. That’s the disappointing part I believe.

  11. I took no offense…I was just explaining to you with a little bit of sarcastic humour why I don’t have amounts yet. Sorry you don’t get my humour or my sarcasm.

    If you remember though I was early to the camp that a day or two ago that there were inconsistencies in how the ECMWF was handling the system and because of that and much like you I am not all in on its 12z solution.

    1. Things can get misinterpreted easily online. I apologize for the misunderstanding. I always appreciate your insights which is why I asked you for your prediction. 😀

        1. Yes, tone and intent is very hard to interpret in the written word, especially with no sense of the writer’ voice.

          I think that happens often here with John. Sometimes I am completely befuddled by his writing style but I would tend to guess the voice behind it is totally different and quite reasonable and pleasant.

          2. I miss John. I hope he doesn’t feel like we don’t appreciate him. I appreciate all opinions even if I don’t agree with them. All of the different personalities on this blog is what makes this place so great!

      1. Did someone say Worcester Hills? 😀 Can we say Retrac?
        What you mean I sent you off? What did I do this time? 😀

      1. Professional except for all the typos when i am writing on my phone or Ipad….maybe not so professional after all.

        Ok. About to sit down and watch the hockey game with my two boys.

        1. JMA if I may many of us have phones and iPads with minds of their own. I truly think we read as it was intended and don’t even see the oddities when they are right in front of us-e.g. We read iPad-eze 🙂

    2. That’s good!

      By the way, is anyone tired of Michael Felger? I listened to him this afternoon and decided I’ve had it with his smugness and arrogance. I can’t listen to people who appear unkind and almost ruthless in their judgments. He may be insightful – sometimes – but he’s always negative. I wonder how his wife puts up with it.

      2. Very polarizing figure Felger is isnt he. Yes he is arrogant and smug and usually negative, but hes the epitome of boston sports. Boston sports fans are as a whole passionate about their teams. When they dont like something they dont hold back. I think hes refreshing and truthful in what he says. Yea the delivery may stink sometimes but he says what we are all thinking.

        1. The clowns at WEEI turned me off a few years back. D&C spouting political rants and the Big Show screaming at each other. Ugghh. Felger and the rest of the guys at the Sports Hub are attracting a younger audience as opposed to the Grumpy Old Men on EEI. In it’s day EEI was the best but they didn’t change with the passing years. The ratings reflect that now. I see where Kirk Minihan (sp?) is joining D&C…well that can only spell the demise of Dino in the next few months.

          Felger can be bombastic at times but does not suck up to some people the way Ordway did over the past several years.

          10 years from now will be talking about a fresh new group on sports radio on another station and talking about how stale the Sports Hub has become.

  21. I almost don’t know what to think of the NAM these days. Was it this bad last year or year before? I don’t remember it that way.

  22. I dont think a milder solution over the weekend will lead to less snowfall. The reason I say this is, given the NAO, I think we might get less snow because the storm coming up the coast is little further south and east and more strung out, as opposed to compact.

    I know the further south and east sounds contrary to less snow, however its getting to be that time of late winter when, without very cold air around, precip intensity can be more dominant in determining precip type, in spite of low pressure tracking south of us.

    I think the slightly supressed track of the coastal low will either be verified by the 0z runs or even pushed further SE a bit more.

    1. Also, the current blocking orientation seems to be more about northward-southward movement, as opposed to westward-eastward movement, or holding a coastal surface low closer to the immediate coastline. I think this is seen in how many models have a sharp precip cutoff in Maine and many of the QPF bullseye are west-east oriented, as opposed to north-south oriented.

  24. And now the non-scientific snow forecast:

    The Bruins will score the same number of goals tonight as inches of snow fall at Logan Airport in the upcoming winter storm. 😉

  25. Hmmmm I’m confused. It’s one thing above the pike and another below. How about those if us who live on the pike? Rain here too? Or all snow ? Sun and 90 😉

    2. Yes, and I’ll definitely eat lots of crow if there’s more than an inch in Boston. With the exception of Friday (tomorrow) and Monday – enjoy these days, folks – we’re going to have a lot of really dismal weather the coming week or so. Lots of cold rain, with some wet flakes thrown in. I hope this is not a prelude to our `spring.’ This said, so often here in New England, and especially coastal SNE, spring happens on a Thursday. I realize this is not literally the case, but my experience with spring here in Boston has generally not been pleasant. Love the other three seasons here in beantown, but find the teasing (the occasional beautiful day) followed by bouts of truly dismal, raw conditions to be a bit much.

  28. Still feel some places come in at 10+ just not sure where yet. I agree with Tom I think colder scenario plays out which gives me confidante in totals nearing a foot in spots just not sure whether its gonna happen. I have said all along that blocking is the factor and it appears that way. I think being its only Thursday night and storm really doesn’t he cranking until Sunday morning we have a lot more changes coming.

        1. Better pack some in a cooler. You’ll need it to replace what the rain washes away.

          (thought I’d get even) 🙂

    2. going to stratton his weekend. plan is to head up before the storm on saturday. skiing on sunday comming home late sunday night.

  33. I agree with that. I hate messy storms. I wish this was all snow. To bad the air is marginally cold and we don’t have a strong low pressure system to drag down the cold air.

  34. The one missing piece in all of this is a cold high to the north. If we had that we would be talking a foot plus everywhere.

    3. I’m there. And I think we said 7:00. There’s a bunch of others like I think Sue, Charlie? They’ll check in I imagine.

        2. Oh, geez, man, don’t even joke — I really need this vacation. (Send good vibes towards Logan during the meetup, my flight is scheduled to leave at 7:45. 🙂 )

  37. Im trying to go but now I have a meeting. If it’s at 730pm I should be good but any earlier won’t be able to go.

  39. Whats he looking at??

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Interesting…new guidance bumps up precip amounts for South/West ME – which history also argues for given storm track

  40. TK, please get there at 6:45. Senators in town. We need strategic seats so we can get the occasional update.

  42. I definitely would like to meet everyone so I will try to get there on thursday. Where are we meeting? Yardhouse?

    2. Had the storm come earlier, say, yesterday or today or even tonight, bumped into the current cold, very different story. Alas, timing is everything.

      I don’t think we’ll have this kind of cold much anymore this winter. It won’t be mild the coming weeks by any stretch, but days in which the temp doesn’t reach 32 in Boston will be few and far between (if any).

  59. Real close track, right over Nantucket. Not even close to the Euro’s 12z track.

    Still looking like the Pike is that magical line between a lot of snow and very little.

  62. Boston is right on the line of snow/rain and I think with the intense snow, nighttime temps, and strength of the low it could stay all snow in Boston. Heavy Wet Snow!

    1. It could end up being one of those storms where the north part of town has 8″ while the south side has 2″.

      I think I’m good here in the Hills. Just a matter of how much now.

  66. So taking into account the NAM’s warm bias, as well as it’s tendency to overdo QPF….4-8 inches is probably reasonable in Beantown. I’d bet the mid-low end of that range.

    2. 0Z NAM Precip type maps:

      54 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022200&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=054

      57 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022200&time=PER&var=PTYPE&hour=057

      60 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022200&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=060

      63 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022200&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=063

    3. Totally. I’m already on the KBOX 8-10/10-14 line.

      Would love an 18″ storm.

      Really can’t wait for the King now. With any luck my nightly trip to the bathroom will work out at 2:30 tonight. (sorry, too much info?) 🙂

  69. A lot of liquid, remains to be seen how much snow. I think this could be a situation where Logan is at 5 and where OS and I could be at 12 inches.

  70. Vicki, both Framingham and Boston are in the 16-18″ range on that run if I am reading it correctly but I can assure this is WAY overcooked.

    2. No way AM. We’re gonna be sweating this one out till noon on Sat.

      And if you live near the Pike, you’ll have your nose pressed to the glass all night squinting at the R/S line.

  73. If the GFS comes in with NO Snow for Boston, I’m going to scream so loud, Hadi will
    hear me at Smuggler’s Notch! 😀

  74. Surface temps near or slightly over 30F, solar brightness of a nearly approaching 40 degree angle sun on Sunday…. It may be time to think about elevated areas vs less elevated….. Not saying snow only for elevated, but rather, what looks like a lot of snow in less elevated areas may end up being 3-5, while Worcester, Jaffrey, NH, Keene, NH get the best amts……

  78. He corrected himself

    @klemanowicz: More specifically, NAM warmer for south of Boston. Still significant snow north and west, even around 128

  79. just looked at the critical thicknesses for the Nam and they’re all on top of you guys in Boston right through to between hr. 60 & 66. They basically sit on top of the Mass. Pike at hr. 54.

    You might want to drive to my house…….to the King!

    1. In exchange for OS and Hadi having a cold enough column above them, I will gladly sacrafice Marshfield to being south and east of the 540 line.

  80. I do hope that those on the blog who reside inland are thinking a bit about possible plans for residing without power for sometime, just in case it happens.

          1. Oh wow !! I’ll have fun and throw out some predictions tomorrow for the usual spots, but your location will be a definite bullseye for big accumulations.

            1. even when the qpf is lower, we tend to make up for it with higher ratio. I’m really not that far from you guys either.

  81. Tweet from Joe B who I will give credit to has been very good as of late.

    @BigJoeBastardi: latest nam snow forecast…weakening midwest system comes alive over New England. Boston needs about 12″ for record http://t.co/UlHjEJQRxp

  82. Retrac that is going to be close for sure if NAM verfies. Once again I am still sticking with colder solution at this point.

  84. barnstable : rain. ending as a mix. no accumulations
    plymouth/ bristol. counties; rain to snow. little or no accumulation south/coast . light accumulation else where.
    norfolk county. rain to rain/snow changing to plain snow. light snow accumulation possible
    suffolk county: rain to rain/snow. light snow accumulation away from the coast.
    middlesex county.
    southeast: rain/snow to snow. light snow accumulation possible
    central: rain/snow to snow. moderate snow accumulation.
    outside of 128 moderate snowfall. areas outside of 495 heavy snowfall.
    worcester county
    mass pike , points south. snow to mix to snow. moderate snowfall possible.
    mass pike to rt2 mix to snow. heavy snowfall possible
    north of rt 2 9 higher elevations. mainly snow . Heavy snowfall.
    western mass. ct river valley light/moderate snowfall.
    berks. heavy snowfall.
    Early predictions will change. Will not put down amounts until tomorrow.

    1. Mark with that last run of the NAM it looks like what we typically see with these coastal storms with little for the shoreline
      and most in the hills of northwestern and northeastern CT.

      1. Yep, I agree. These are fairly typical storm scenarios for CT climatologically speaking but we have been spoiled the past 2-3 years being in the sweet spot on several snow events. Guess it’s back to reality now!

  96. Mark,

    The 0 degree line doesnt get higher than the mass pike where on the 18z gfs the 0 degree line gets up to NH border this would mean a colder solution…Am I missing something?

    1. Looked back at the 18z run and you are right that the 0C line jumped further north than the 0z run for about a 6 hour period. The end result of the run is the same though as far as snow totals.

  97. I will assume that just like the gfs was wrong with the last storm when it was insisting a bigger storm it to will be wrong with this storm.

  99. I’m thinking lower snow amts than the folks on TV. I think actual melted precip is 1 inch, at most. Then, factor in boundary layer temps 28-34F on Sunday morning through noon-time, the brightness of the day from a late February sun and those two factors say to me that actual accumulating snow is not likely to match what is necessarily falling from the sky.

    Marshfield : 1.3 inches. Boston : 2.7 inches. Most snow : elevated areas like Worcester, Holden, Jaffrey, NH in the order of 5-8 inches with most other non-elevated areas away from the coastline at 3-5 inches.

    Now, I can go out and enjoy the calm winds and bright sun of tomorrow and get a little more spring fever. I hope. 🙂

  100. Disappointed in the NWS snowfall map. Rip & read right off the GFS – a model with a rather poor track record (I’m being nice). I don’t think much thought went into that.

    If it verifies, I will apologize to them right here. 🙂

  101. NWS in its late evening discussion seems more concerned about urban & street flooding for Boston more than snow. I am now beginning to wonder if come Monday morning Boston will still need 9.3″ to tie the Feb. 1969 snowfall record.

    Could we be starting to lean moreso in that direction TK?

    2. I’m wondering why the NWS is completely opposite to all the TV guys and most of my colleagues. Something isn’t right here.

  102. 0z Euro looks a little colder but continues its downward trend in QPF. I am reading 1″ QPF amounts are pretty much confined to extreme eastern areas (Portsmouth to Boston) and there is a dry slot in the precip (0.5″ or less from around Worcester south into CT).

    Not a terrible run for Boston but still no good for CT – think I am going to shift my focus to next week’s affairs which may hold a bit more promise for me down here.

  103. Does QPF mean the difference of the rain/snow line setup? The reason I ask is that from what I can tell from the posts here, everytime one model has less QPF seems to imply a colder solution and when another has more QPF, a warmer solution.

    1. Philip, QPF just means amount of liquid equivalent precip in inches. It stands for “Quantitative Precipitation Forecast”

      1. Yes Mark, I understand that. What I was referring to is that I have noticed from the recent posts regarding this upcoming storm when there is a colder solution there is less QPF on those models and the warmer models, more QPF. Maybe it just seems that way?

        1. philip, it is because when there is less qpf, it usually means that the low is farther offshore which will provide a colder solution, but if the qpf is more it meanes that the low is much closer and would have mixing issues but higher qpf. Of course this depends on how strong the system is, sometimes you can get a low closer with more qpf but all snow if the low is strong enough, I am no expert but i think that is why

        2. A farther off shore track would typically yield a colder solution but keep most of the heavier QPF over the ocean. A closer track means heavier precip but it also brings the warm air in off the ocean. There’s definitely a correlation.

  104. TK, not sure if you caught up with the discussions from earlier today but I had posted some text output from the Euro and JMA responded that “ECMWF can be pretty militant about the redistribution of their data that is considered proprietary. They charge a lot of money for their data output and don’t like it redistributed for free. I would just hate to see this blog suffer any repercussions. It is the cut and paste and straight repost that can cause issues.”

    I get a lot of this info from other weather forums and blogs where they post this kind of data rampantly. However, I wouldn’t want to jeopardize this blog in any way, so please let me know if you’d like me (and others) to refrain from posting that sort of information in the future.

    1. Some of the Euro data is available for free. WSI has a more detailed version that they sell.

      You can post what you have here. Nobody is profiting by it anyway. 🙂

      1. i totally agree kane. with the frozen ground and snow on the ground already. i rather have more snow and have it gradually melt late march.

  107. Good morning everyone, it doesn’t look as if much as changed, nam is definatly overdone some, I think places north and west of the mass pike and 495 are gonna be safe for a moderate snow impact, and I continue to believe that south of Plymouth to just south of Hartford receive mainly rain with a quick coating to an inch on backside, today is the day to fine tune that snow rain line, I will say there could be BIG differences between snowfalls for this particular storm between Worcester and Boston, today is the day we will find out just how different today, have a great morning 🙂

  108. Enjoy the snow up there especially the suburbs north and west of Boston where several inches are looking more and more likely. Currently that area I am giving a level 2 snow event. South of the Pike I am going with a 1.
    Here where I am in CT a slop storm.

  110. I think a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Sat/Sun but I don’t think it includes Boston, at least not yet. Mostly north and west of Boston.

  114. I think JJ’s comment above looks about right.

    Pete has Boston with 3-6″ and BZ 4-8″, most of it being explained as heavy wet cement/slop. Interestingly snow amounts seem to go up a lot north and west and the cutoff points seem to be VERY SHARP. As an example, there is a Winter Storm Watch right now that does not include Boston but does include Cambridge, just on the other side of the Charles.

    I live along the 128 corridor near the Pike so I guess I’m in for more than Boston and the coast and sounds like I’ll be looking at heavy stuff. Not really up for this!

  115. Words that are included within the NWS (Taunton) Storm Watch.

    THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY WET SNOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
    DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON

  117. Also the type of storm where a 25-50 mile jog in the track in any direction within the next 18-30 hours and we’ll be looking at new snow maps.

  118. Pete’s #’s have come down and NWS’s #’s have come up and they have met me in the middle. 😉

    1. I’ll give another shot at #’s this afternoon. I’ll be mobile for the next 7 hours.

      Have a great day all!

  120. I kind of feel bad for the mets. They all have changed the snow maps about 3 different times. Harvey has posted a new snow map on twitter at least 3 times he seems very concerned and mentioned Big Bust potential last night. It is going to be all about Nowcasting to see how far that rain/snow line gets. Should be fun to watch.

  122. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like no matter what, Sudbury is going to see snow. I am guessing a heavy wet snow, unless Sudbury is north enough for this storm to have no mixing and to have a fluffy dry snow. Hmmm, that didn’t come out grammatically correct. Oh, well.

  123. 2/8 max sun angle : 32.8 degrees

    2/23 max sun angle : 38.0 degrees (leading into Sat night/Sun morning event)

    (5.2 degree gain in 15 days) this cold, snowy stretch has really masked this increase very well.

    However, for the next 2 events, I really think there’s going to be noticeable differences in accumulations btwn elevated vs non-elevated areas.

    1. Oh absolutely and it will again in the future.

      However, when Saturday is in the upper 30s and during Saturday night, the temps are struggling to get down towards 32F or 33F, a forecast of 6-10, for example, can quickly turn into 2-4 or 3-5. And the thing is, it pretty much snows most of the time, but, with those temps, the first few hours struggle to stick, then the next few hrs, the snow is so wet, it compacts and by the time its done, you have half of what you expected.

  126. It seems the mets are saying just about the same except Pete has a bigger hit in the Worcester Hills and north of that. I have to say that I find the map far easier to find on 7 than I do on 4 and it’s nasty to find quickly on 5.

    1. I guess 4.3 inches of very wet snow for you Vicki, with the flexibility to put a 1 in front of the 4. 🙂 🙂 🙂 sound good ?? Seriously though, 4.3 inches.

      I agree about the ease of finding ch 7’s map. That usually sends me there first for the TV folks.

  128. To illustrate these marginal surface temps further, check out any 7 day forecast and the coldest high temp is about 34F, while most days are 38-42F. Again, I’m not saying this means rain…….

    Its just that in the blizzard (can I refer to it as Nemo 🙂 ?), it was like 15F in Portland, ME and in the 20s north and east of I95, so when 2 inches of melted precip fell into that, bang…… 30 inches. I dont think that holds this coming week, in fact, I think one has to go the other way and incorporate very, very wet snow leading to lower totals. Areas like Worcester and other elevated areas, I think, will come closer to realizing their projected snowfall totals.

  129. Up until now I was calling for 12+ southwest, west and northwest of Boston. With the latest guidance and consistency from the EURO, the storm appears weaker and thus warmer than previous model runs 24 to 36 hours ago. With a weaker storm, dynamic cooling is not as effective. Additionally, there is no strong cold high to our north. Hence, the masspike, Boston and immediate suburbs will be flirting with a rain/snow line Saturday night into the early Sunday morning. Eventually everything transitions to snow in all areas except for the outer Cape resulting in lower snow totals.

    495 N&W: 8-12 +
    Boston and along the pike including immediate Suburbs : 4-8 (closer to 4 in the city)
    Southshore: 3-5
    Cape Canal/southcoast up to plymouth: 1-3
    Outer Cape and Islands: RAIN

      1. Hadi. It would need to be a stronger solution in order to create a colder scenerio. It’s more strength and less track at this point. We need dynamic cooling to effectively occur.

  130. Good morning friends. Haven’t been keeping up much on the latest posts as I am buried in a bank conversion. Hoping to be back on the south shore by late afternoon before the heavy rain hits. And count me in Thursday!

  131. I’m in agreement with Tom, more or less, on this coming week’s events. There just isn’t enough cold air left for much, if any, coastal snow (includes Boston), and this situation will persist through this week’s projected cut-off low. The latter will bring lots of snow, or at least persistent bursts, in higher elevations, in the interior, and the mountains. But, next to nothing along the coast. This does not mean, of course, that you cannot have lots of accumulating snow at the coast in late February, March, or April. Yes, it happens a lot, but only when there is truly cold air to our north and west.

    By the way, I’m not even buying the 3 inches that Matt Noyes and others forecast for Boston. I think it’ll be closer to 1 inch of glop. Nothing plowable or even likable about it. 5 miles from the coast there could be some accumulating snow, but not much until you get past 128. Even then, elevation will matter, and snow will have a hard time accumulating on roads during the day Sunday.

    1. I agree that it’s looking like a warmer solution will verify. However, not sure Boston only sees an inch. Four is more likely and building as you move just inland. We will see 😀

  133. 6-12 inches north of the pike and outside of 128 and west of i95. highest amounts higher elevations.
    4-6 along and south of the mass pike. up east of i95 ( inside of 128) ( ct river valley)
    2-4 interior southeast mass
    0-2 coastal southeast mass, coastal rd ,coastal ct ,cape and islands

  134. Ok. I actually hoped to post this around 5am today, but that pesky work thing got in the way.

    Going to go with a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM and am discounting the NAM as an outlier and because of its influence on the SREF I am discarding that as well. The NAM is once again suffering from convective feedback resulting from convection associated with the southern stream low creating an overdone or even false deformation zone and QPF bullseye over SNE.

    ECMWF/GFS/GGEM are all pretty consistent with a region wide .75-1.0 of QPF. I am comfortable with that. I do think the ECMWF holds on to precip a bit long by blowing up the low too close to the Eastern MA coastline and I don’t think I trust it driving the 540 line to the MA NH border by 11pm or so Saturday night. Actually I am probably most comfortable with the 00z GFS solution and I may be weighting it just slightly more than in recent weeks. Best snow accumulation will be overnight hours of Saturday/Sunday into early Sunday morning and any significant accumulations will taper off west to east from late morning to mid-afternoon.

    Here we go. Light rain/snow/mix overspreads the area from west to east, south to north late afternoon into the early evening hours. The snow becomes predominant in all areas west of 495 and east of 495, 5-10 miles north of the MA Pike on Saturday night, with the exception of northeastern coastal locations where it will be milder longer and have longer duration of a rain or mix. I believe even in the best thermal advection areas this storm only produces moderate snowfall rates and heavy snowfall bands will not be widespread.

    Boston area southwest to the 495/95 interchange 3-5″
    495/95 South toward providence and east of Providence 2-3″
    Little accumulation expected in south coastal and cape cod regions.
    128-495 north and west 5-8″
    Worcester 7-10″ Jackpot could be Northern Worcester Hills into SW NH.
    CT River Valley of MA 4-6″
    Western Hampshire, Franklin County, and the Berkshires 6-9″ The higher amounts in that range will only be achieved in the eastern areas of that region.
    Hartford 2-5″ Lower amounts south, higher amounts north.

    Heavy wet snow, but because of the lower amounts, I do not have significant concern about power outages. However any area that gets more than 3″, it is going to be miserable to move and you will be wishing for a foot of powder instead!

    A couple of tricky things going with the forecast and I am leaning toward the potential for a slightly earlier daytime onset west of Boston, particularly in the Worcester Hills. There may be some weak lift combined with some southerly upslope flow associated with the northern stream low and not really an extension of the main storm that will be developing to the south of us. Mostly putting this out there for people in this area to be aware that it may start a bit earlier, but it will be light and the temps will marginal, so little impact.

    Have a good day everyone. Feel free to fire off any questions and I will try to answer what I can.

    1. Thanks JMA – my concern is your comment about the earlier start and it may not apply. We have postponed an event we were having here for reasons not to do with this storm but my husband’s 96 year old aunt and her daughter are driving from Brookline to Framingham and will leave Framingham to return around 3:00ish. Would there be any concern that early in the afternoon? Thank you? And please anyone feel free to answer as I always value every opinion

      1. You will be fine Vicki. As I wrote an earlier start would be west of you and it would be very light precip falling into marginal temps, creating no impact on the roadways. You should be fine during most of the daylight hours of Saturday, Framingham east.

        1. Thank you very much. I know her daughter understandably prefers she not even be out to walk if there is any snow on the ground.

      2. OS – I don’t think the GFS solution is that bad. Yes you have to adjust it for some critical thickness issues and trend its mix precip signal more towards snow, but its QPF amounts and timing I think are good.

        1. Jma,
          “but its QPF amounts and timing I think are good.”

          Ok, I can buy that. With its performance lately, I have trouble trusting it for anything. You have the skill to pick out what is good. 😀

  136. Hadi you are worrying me. You seem to think every model run is coming in colder and stronger. Do you have a case of the chills? Seems to me the NAM actully moves the highest precip amounts offshore and its precip is more in line. About 1.0 in Boston. .75 in Worcester. 1.25 to the south, but mostly warmer there. Gone is the 2.0+ QPF.

  137. Hi JMA,

    The NAM has the 0 degree line further south wouldn’t that mean a colder solution? Yes the nam cuts down on the total precip which we all knew was way overdone but doesn’t the 12z run of the nam come a little closer to other models or your thinking?

    1. It comes in a little colder Boston-Worcester, but where it creates its precip bullseye to the south and east is still warm.

      It is not that much colder in Boston – Worcester where at OOZ it had an all snow solution producing 20″ of snow

    1. That would correct. 3″ or so in Boston. 4-5″ in the Dedham/Westwood/Norwood area, trending back to 3″ in the Foxboro/Mansfield area. That would be my thought right now.

      You are going to be right on a critical line where it could take a while for the snow to establish itself.

  139. I think Worcester will be Jackpot for this snow event IMO, Providence may only get an inch maybe 2 inches of snow, Boston looks closer to 3 inches only bc of snow ratios, I think some south and east of Boston will be wondering what all the fuss is about, but hey it’s New England 🙂

  140. Here is the 0Z Experimental FIM model:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013022200/3hap_sfc_f060.png

    850 0C line gets up close to, but no to Boston.
    Total qpf in at about 1 inch total.

    Looks like the models are zeroing in at about 1 inch of qpf.

    Most models keep 0C just South of Boston, but that doesn’t mean there won’t
    be a mix.

    SREF snow ratios:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013022209/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f057.gif

    With ratios down aroun 5:1 at the coast ranging up to 10:1 as you go far N&W,
    With NO rain Boston at best would do about 5 inches. With any mix and your down
    to 3 or 4 inches. JP could see 6 without any mix.

    SO all in all, an event but no great shakes. Very routine, I’m afraid.

    At this point I just want Boston the BREAK the all time one month Snowfall record. 😀

        1. That’s a 986 mb low sitting due South of the Cape, surely throwing precipitation up into our region, most likely in the form of snow. 😀

  142. @jreineron7: Live east of I-95?….plan on 3-6″ sloppy snow. Live west of I-95?….plan on 6-12″ sloppy snow with most getting 6-8″ #7news

    1. Things may get quite interesting on the east coast towards next weekend with the setup that the Euro is depicting: strong NAO, jetstream diving down to the Gulf Coast, and possible storm development over the Atlantic.

  144. Harvey Leonard tweet 41 minutes ago as of 10:19 AM:

    Harvey Leonard Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    @JoeDunn8 Joe, my best estimate for Boston is to be on the border of 3-6 and 6-9…so about 6 would be my best estimate

    1. I wouldn’t mind 6+ inches of heavy wet snow in Westwood. It will be awesome to look at but awful to clear away. Thank goodness for snow throwers.

  146. Thanks JMA!! We are in decent agreement as usual other than maybe an inch or so here and there on snow totals. 🙂

    1. So I guess it is safe to say that Boston’s Feb. 1969 record (41.3″) will remain very much intact for at least another year?

      1. I wouldn’t say that at all. Withe anywhere from a couple to 6 inches this go around and certainly at least a few more next week,
        I’d say we have an outstanding shot at breaking it. 😀

      2. That high shifts east before tomorrow night’s storm arrives. A bit too far east for my liking causing more of an easterly wind direction vs. a northeasterly.

              1. I Don’t agree. Looking at everything. I see mainly a snow
                event for Boston with perhaps a bit of mixing for awhile.

          1. The orientation of the 0C line does not necessarily mean wind direction will be from the northeast. With a H anchored to our northeast it only makes sense that its clockwise rotation will further enhance an easterly wind direction at least until the main surface low passes to our east. We really would like that H centered due north.

  148. Retrac could be in the jackpot zone where up to 10 inches could fall, I think it’s gonna be pretty amazing that in the NW section of 495 could be around 10 inches while just 40 or so miles SE into Boston and esp Logan where an inch or 2 could fall and just get washed away

          1. Absolutely. Good I am happy to see you agree
            that it’s fairly reliable. I has a wealth of information in it.

  150. @TerryWBZ: Weather models that showed so much agreement a few days ago have gone completely off the rails…weekend is up for grabs…BUST possible

  152. The nam is showing some decent snows, it sorta concerns me as in upping snow amounts slightly, nam usually is the magic crystal ball and can usually give u some nice info

      1. They aren’t look at the SREF.

        With a low fairly close to the coast and a H situated to our northeast, that doesn’t bode well for a northerly wind component unfortunately.

  154. I must be reading the models wrong…Isn’t the o degree line colder on the 12z runs but showing less snow?? I guess I need a good lesson when it comes to reading models.

  155. @TerryWBZ: I can say this with certainty regarding this weekend…we will NOT have a major snowstorm in Southern New England

    1. I think 6+ inches of heavy, wet snow inducing power outages north and west of 95 is fairly major–just not a blockbuster.

      1. Isn’t Worcester part of southern new england??? They could see 10 inches of heavy, wet snow! That isn’t major?? 😀

        1. I think his statement was not advisable.
          And I agree that power outages would equate to
          something major.

          On your point about Worcester. I “think” Worcester is considered Central New England. (I have even seen that
          Boston is considered Central.) I wonder if there is anything official on this?

          1. Totally agree about his inadviseable comment. It’s not like their is a lot of model agreement here. This could be a bust, indeed, but it could also paint a good portion of interior southern new england with close to a foot of heavy wet snow if the colder NAM verified!

    2. At least BZ is stating something without equivocation. I think my 1 inch of glop may turn out to be zilch in Boston. It’s going to be way too warm Sunday when the precipitation changes over to snow. The Easterly flow completely nixes any chance of accumulating snow at the coast under this weekend’s set of circumstances. We will get a NE flow most of next week, but again with very little cold air to work with. Perhaps at night (midweek) there may be some glop in Boston, but nothing to write home about, and you may not even know it fell by the time you get up in the morning.

      1. Boston receiving no snow is not going to happen. I couldn’t disagree with you more. At least 4 inches is a sure bet. Two models don’t even demonstrate a mixing line reaching Boston. I’m not sure Boston doesn’t see rain/mix at least to start; however, they certainly will receive accumulating snow. Will see: D

  157. Looks like some Mets are placing much value on that 12Z GFS run???

    We’re very close to this event and no model agreement.

    Insanity.

      1. If it shows a colder and snowier solution I’m sure they will discount it due to the proximity of the event.

    2. In my experience, generally we don’t ever see a prolonged period of mixing
      To be sure there is always a period of mixing when changing from snow to rain or rain to snow, but the event is hardly ever a mix event. (I think I saw it once where the whole event was mixed)

      With this set up it could easily go back and forth, snow, mix, snow, mix, rain, mix, snow etc etc etc. That would be sloppy mess.

      We’ll see how it plays out.

      The evidence so far keeps 850 0C line South of immediate Bosotn area.
      So any mixing would be due to boundary layer issues as the GFS indicates.

      1. That is why I wholeheartedly disagree with the GFS. B.L issues do not make it that far north and west climatologically speaking.

  158. Is there a range that mets use for “major”. To me it seems as vague as plowable and tells the viewer nothing. If I read that, I’d think we were in for a few inches and no big deal.

  159. This event is what every TV Met should be taking to the producers and saying….. So, how did the snowmap preojections from 2 to 3 days ago work out for you ?” Because now, those 4-8 and 6-10 for Boston, heck inside rte 128 are going to look downright silly.

    Whereas, if the first map was from the noon show, about 36 hrs in advance, indicating 1-3 in Boston and maybe 2-4 or 3-5 around 128, the TV Mets would get the high levels of respect they deserve. Instead, because of those with decision making who have much less meteorology background, they look all over the place and thats not right.

    1. Unfortunately Tom, the producers could care less if they get it right or wrong. As long as they get their ratings, that’s all they care about

    2. Well Said Tom.

      AND you are correct, it is Station Management FORCING them to make
      those projections. It is WRONG!

    4. The mets should stop producing snow maps so many days in advance and stand up to the TV bigwigs. Are the mets’ jobs all that much in jeopardy if they don’t??

    5. It should start up again this coming Monday for next Wed-Sat.

      And if my logic we’re ever wrong and its the mets doing this on their own, then double shame on them.

    6. The results of competition do not always make sense when you stand back and look at them. They just are. Does a peacock make sense? But, that’s what is now needed to get the attention of a peahen.

      My sister had a friend who was a TV meteorologist in upstate NY. I remember talking with him when a snow storm was on the way. He had the exact same complaints about the station management. This was in 1978.

      1. It’s a EURO/NAM blend for sure. The GFS seems to think that the marine layer will play a bigger role than it actually will.

  161. Gotta love Margusity.

    This was like 1/2 hr. ago.

    “Big snowstorm for New England this weekend. Pile it on. Not the last snowstorm for guys that’s for sure.”

    This wasn’t true before the 12z!

    1. That guy, he doesn’t know the local area as to rain snow lines and is more general, I have a love hate relationship, entertainment value 🙂

  163. I’d like to throw out there that the 12z GFS is actually a “cooler scenario” in that the storm track is further offshore and the 540 thickness is hugging the immediate “south coast” of New England.

    What I think generates the less snow (in the GFS’ mind anyway) is with less precip intensity and surface temps in the low -mid 30s, if it snows, it really wont accumulate.

    I should try to explain the GFS to my behavior specialist wife and see what diagnosis she gives it. 🙂 🙂

  164. There are so many news outlets, u won’t get ratings up if you don’t get people’s attention and for today’s standards it takes quite a but to get the average persons attention these days, unfortunately it will only get worse, it’s all money always has always will unfortunately

    1. Alot of people unlike before don’t even watch news everyday, alot get weather updates every other day, don’t get me wrong alot watch the news everyday but not like they used too IMO

  165. Is the TV industry so cutthroat that producers would fire an entire weather team that refuse to produce snowfall maps 4-5+ days in advance? Has it really come to this??

    1. If I add it all up, about 25 mm or just about an inch total. Consistent with
      others. But I don’t see rain in Boston with this. Perhaps a little mixing due
      to boundary layer issues.

      Onto the Ukmet and of course, the Euro. 😀

  167. All mets are lowering their snow totals down to practically nothing…talk about a BUST compared to just 24 hours ago.

    The GFS is the new King?

        1. Actually a day or two ago, TK was more onto the EURO which was demonstrating a stronger/colder storm.

          I just wish I knew why this storm is weaker. Is it just not intensifying quickly enough?

  168. My forecast is for 1-3 inches in Boston, lower end south and east, north and west of 128 2-4, west of 495 4-8 inches, I feel confident this is what’s gonna happen, ukmet will be a mess, check back later 🙂

  169. I agree completely with Tom’s comments about the mets taking the info to the producers. I understand producers want to get the attention of the audience but in this case negative attention is downright damaging. If I see something on 4 and it’s wrong, I’m going to change to 7. Even though they may have had the same info, I won’t know that. That’s hypothetical – I check all but camp on 7 as you all know 🙂

    I would think the viewer could contact the station but I wonder if the producers would just pass the buck and it would still jeopardize the mets job.

    Talk about between a rock and a hard place for the mets

  170. Alot more rain in Boston to Providence corridor than snow, next wed at this early stage sorta looks like this storm but with more precip, still early yet but it’s been sorta consistent with rain midweek next week,

      1. Well, I’m guilty of that too ! My goal over the longterm is to incorporate more instinct and climatology into my thinking.

          1. I’m not either …. Agreed those in the profession should be held to a higher standard………I do love the weather so much, I’d like to improve a bit year by year.

  173. What is interesting now with all the media outlets and online wx information sources it has really become possible to “shop” for a forecast or model run tar will deliver exactly the outcome one wants! The forecast has become the weather as far as people’s behavior is concerned. Nobody will go out this Sunday even if it only rains due to a week of hyping. By in large the biggest impact of these “storms” is on television and nowhere else. The blizzard notwithstanding, people should pull back and look at the reality of the event.

  175. SNE Weather Coverage ‏@SNEWeather

    Euro look a big southeast and cold. A lot more QPF than the gfs though

    2. qpf looks to be somewhere around .5 inch or so.
      Anyone have the total qpf figures?
      The Euro is on a huge downward swing here.

      I give up.

      1. With this qpf and 1000mb low and boundary layer issues, there
        actually could be ZERO snow in Boston from this. 😀

  178. T minus 6 days and a little less than 12 hrs to Meteorological Spring, 25 days and 17 hrs to the Vernal Equinox.

    I’m ready to ponder tough high temp forecasts along the coastline due to midday seabreezes, when the first 80F+ day will suddenly appear without much notice (while its 52F on the Cape) amongst a few things that arrive sometime in New England spring. I wont talk about the cutoff low that produces 7 straight days of 43F damp, dreary chill. 🙁

  179. wow. i will not be on tonight as im at a band banquet. then im at stratton saturday late afternoon through sunday getting back sunday late evening. Hoping there is snow falling sunday am up there.

    1. They should just tape various snow maps on a wheel and spin the wheel every 6 hours and post whatever it picked. 🙂

  181. ECMWF QPF is still consistent from 0.6-1.1. West to East. It is just now a drawn out, weaker system delivering mostly light precipitation that with marginal temps and Feb sun angle during the daylight hours is going to create snowfall accumulation issues, not to mention its long slow 36 hour precip drip is not a something I am buying into.

  182. I think it is time to move on from this storm. Looked promising several days ago, at least in some areas, but it has fallen to pieces. From close to 2 qpf to less than 0.5 in two days, that’s a real change, besides the track issues, lack of cold air, easterly flow. Perhaps we get luckier with the mid week cut-off low. Not at the beginning, but Thursday into Friday may produce some snow at the coast; maybe. There isn’t much cold air to tap into or draw in, but it looks like some marginally cold air may work its way into SNE by Thursday. Whatever the case may be, as Alison noted, we’re in for some prolonged nuisance, damp, chilly weather that will remind me of Holland at its worst.

  183. looks very possible that this storm will be much less across southern new england.
    less than 2 inches. east of i95, 2-4 west of i95. 4-8 outside of 128 highest amounts higher terrain. much less than i thought this morning… IM gonna wait till tomorrow to say this is a bust storm or not. will wait for more euro /gfs/nam runs as they are all over the place. but boundry issues will be a major issue. inside of 128/east of i95.

  184. You know what this storm has done for me… I’m now in full Spring and Summer mode!! I’m all done with snow for this year and we didn’t even have alot. I’m looking forward to a warm spring and a nice HOT Summer!! I’m all set with snizzle, snow, and cold temps.

    1. This blog needs a like button ! TK ????

      I personally did however see enough snow. At my locale, blizzard was good for about 20 inches and last Sunday dropped around 7 inches.

    2. You’ll probably get a hot summer, but I doubt a warm spring is in the offing. Had one last year, but that was exceptional. I think it’ll do what it usually does: lots of 40s and 50s (with an occasional 65-70 teaser thrown in) until one day in late May it decides to shoot up to 85 and basically stay there until late August.

        1. I’m optimistic with this coming Spring. Last year was definitely awesome but this year will be way different.

  185. I don’t think this is going to verify.. But check out hour 168 in EURO.. Sub-970mb bomb sit outside of Nantucket! LOL

    1. LOL indeed ! Thats what tonight’s weathercasts will be about. First snowmap from someone in the weather world will be out in the next hour…..

  187. So JMA. Do you think your snow total forecast should be brought down a bit or still sticking with your numbers???

    1. Put it this way my internal bust alarm is going off…I will probably make some adjustment.

      I have had a bad feeling about the scenario that ECMWF was painting for 3 days. It showed confusion even in its supposed continuity.

  188. I have not watched any TV Mets since getting on this blog. Thanks TK and everyone else, this way I keep what ever sanity is left.

      1. I told him yesterday to put some of that snow up there in a cooler cause he was gonna need it down here – hope he listened!

  190. Finally getting a break here today.

    Here’s my late take on the media….

    This is a total function of our real-time information society as we know. And weather predicting will not be immune to it ever!

    We on this blog goof around with this stuff because its a hobby and we largely are able to handle the information responsibly and with a grain of salt and some humor too.

    The problem I have with the media is that weather affects life & property including artificial affects on business to M.L.’s point. So, whipsawing around forecasts for the masses it very irresponsible and lazy. These programs need to do a better job promoting their mission including why it’s their mission to hold off on things – that has value too. Do weather departments have a mission statement? I’ve never seen one out front. And if so, why isn’t is communicated? Am I naive?

    Thanks for the indulgence peeps.

    1. Well said!!

      You know I made a post the other day when all the models were in agreement and I said something like “I am wondering what can go wrong.” Sure did, eh?

      I sure hope someone (Tk, JMA) can give us a precise explanation as to what happened? My sense is no phasing, keeping the Southern Stream system weaker.

      I was watching the 500 mb charts all along and was not liking the configuration. But I figured, what do I know. Oh well. 😀

    2. You are not naive at all but unfortunately I think it is out of the hands of the mets as was said earlier on this blog and in the hands of management. It’s a little like putting our medical treatment in the hands of insurance companies (which we have) – there is never an upside to it for anyone/anything other than the business.

  194. BTW, for full disclosure, the 12Z GFS and Canadian have NO WHERE NEAR
    that configuration. HA HA HA. 😀

  195. Not curling up 🙂 just got home and took a look and yep not good. Such is life and it was funny in the car we were talking about how much warmer if is and how we can’t wait for better weather!!

    Onward and upwards!!

  196. Thanks !! Can’t argue with the euro or GFS at this point. Move on to the next event and swallow my pride on this one.

    1. Mother Nature got us on this one!! Always full of surprises.
      Who would have thought this the other day. Every single model was on board with 2+ inches qpf. The only issue was the rain/snow line. 😀 😀

  198. Hey,

    Wundermap seems to stop at 144 hours. IT allows the bar to go to 180 hours,
    but no data for any hour past 144. Did they change that? Anyone know?

    I wanted to see what it showed for hour 168 with that bomb off the coast.
    ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    😀

  199. AHA!! From Matt Noyes:

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    Interesting to see the first of the midday forecast guidance coming in with a trend toward keeping the northern and southern stream disturbances more distinct. This is important, because it’s the merger of the two disturbances that makes for a strengthening storm – should the trend for more distinct disturbances verify, that would break the storm up into pieces, meaning less precipitation for all. I’ve found through time and experience that little is gained in the forecast world (or much else in life, LOL) from reacting quickly on limited data, unless you’re within 24 hours. So…will review everything thru the afternoon in an attempt to nail down a solid 24-hour forecast…usually the timeframe where snowfall verification (accuracy) scores rise dramatically.

    Hmmm is he thinking that the systems “might” still merge? OR just being cautious?
    They are NOT going to merge, that’s for sure. 😀

      1. No because it’s accu-pro.

        Has that monster the end of next week at 2″+ qpf.

        King still shows big snowpack build through the period.

  201. Next week looks interesting but there r hints of there being a rain snow line,,, where? No idea yet but there r hints, way to early, lets get through this mess this weekend 1st, I hope everyone is having a good day

  203. 12z BTV WRF not really showing much mixing for the Boston area once the main precip gets going. Delivers about 1″ of precip for eastern areas, and only about .5″ for the Worcester area. The trick part is how does that translate to snowfall accumulation?

  204. Well if I am reading correctly, it appears Tom and my trip out in the boat with our fans may have made a difference!!! Works for me 🙂

      1. That’s ridiculous. Why inform the public of a big winter snowstorm when it really isn’t going to happen? That is absolutely shameful. It makes me no longer want to watch the news networks due to such distasteful dishonesty.

  206. Feeling kind of relieved that this storm may not be that bad – however, Mother Nature can be finicky. And is this the storm called Q? I am no trekkie, but I am a fan of Star Trek. If anyone remembers the character named Q – he could go anywhere, do anything and be anyone. So, I am just reading the posts here; watching TV mets., etc. We will see. And ‘though I still don’t understand the models that well, it’s a learning experience.

        1. Remember the commercial from the 60’s or 70’s? I think a butter commercial – you can’t fool Mother Nature? Very true. And I still think the names for winter storms is silly. They are already up to R – Rocky. Now that storm could hold a punch! 🙂

  207. 18Z NAM cruising quite a ways to the South. Waiting for complete run.
    Still has it throwing snow into our area. 0C line stays South. 😀

  209. The one I got right was the colder solutions. Less QPF but I knew it would trend colder. Still thinking 6 inches is doable. Remember back when 3-6 was a nice storm I think we are always looking for monster storms but a 3-6 here and there adds up fast to a season totals.

    1. When I was little I used to get excited about 3-6, and out of my mind about the chance of 10. Inside, it still happens. I don’t need blockbusters all the time. Fascinating to see and I know we get them now and then but I personally love frequent smaller snowfalls.

      2. Give me the occasional Biggie.

        It’s like fishing. You can go for quantity (ie catch a whole bunch of smaller fish, sunfish, perch and the like) or go for Quality and
        catch 1 or 2 BIG bass, Pickerel. or Pike. 😀

    1. Hadi. Not sure we see 3-6 inches in and around Boston with latest trends. Storm is not trending colder. Storm is not merging with the southern stream and therefore remains weak. With no cold H to our north and lack of dynamic cooling, the rain/snow line still is at play, yet with even less precipitation to work with. That’s the way I see it.

  211. Hadi, welcome home. I’m jealous of the mountain snows you got. Love that constant barrage of snow. There’ll be more up that way this week.

    Adam, I’m sorry I mistook you for Alison. My apologies to you and your wife.

    OS, hang in there, hope you feel better.

    Btw, it will snow in March, guys. There will be at least one more snowstorm. I can almost guarantee it. Not that you are all desperate for it. But, like icing on the cake, the March storm will close the curtain on a fairly nice winter. Can’t complain, really, after last year’s total dud.

    Tom, I absolutely love reading your stats on ocean temps (OS puts them out, too) and temp anomalies. My guess is that February comes in below average. I’m going out on a limb to say that March will also be below average and above average in terms of precip.

      2. And the heaviest of the snow is from Boston south. Go figure! Worcester points north and west may see the least of that were to verify.

        1. All of the models have been moody. The EC was showing a blockbuster and now is showing a warm weak wave. The NAM was showing 20+ statewide and now is showing 3-6 inches (bullseye) for the south shore. And, finally, the GFS has been just a mess.

  213. Let’s face it. Each model run is looking worse and worse. By tomorrow morning, the models will be forecasting sunshine for Sunday 😉

    1. As far as I know, nothing based on their terms and conditions. Maybe I’m just being a prude. Plus, I don’t know how to do it since a straight link alone won’t work since you need a passcode etc…

      Other than AutoCAD and basic office software, I’m pretty computer “un-saavy”.

      1. Retrec,

        Try right clicking on the image. Usually one option will
        be “View Image” or something like that. Click on that option.
        It should give a link to a Jpeg or bitmap image. Copy and paste that to WHW and you should be in business.

        But sometimes the image info isn’t like that and there is a
        web address which might be blocked for others.

        Good luck.

  215. Do you want to know why 1) the models have been having a crappy time figuring this out and 2) why its development is in question? The answer for both is the same. We are trying to take a progressive trough through a mean ridge which is pretty solid over the western Atlantic, not that amplified, but there nonetheless. This thing has to come together perfectly to deliver substantial snow. I probably jinxed in the other day when I said better than 50% chance someone in SNE gets double-digit snowfall. I had a feeling something was going to go wrong then and I should have listened to it. That said, I’m not going to make major changes to my forecast just yet…

  216. Maybe we should get our news from CNN, scrolling across bottom say major winter storm grows weaker as heading east, I’m kidding but it’s funny how there not trying to use that for any hype, 🙂

  219. I highly recommend accu pro. The info is terrific. Euro stuff is awesome. Will have to find out what I can post or not, but they do post some stuff on the accuweather blog.

    1. Pretty sweet right.

      Wait till you really start to dig. I mean, I was looking at all the critical thickness lines last night all alone on one chart. I even looked at the wave forecast on Lake Superior last week – talk about a geek!

  220. Just read a bunch of tweets from Harvey. He was having a conversation.

    He is basically worried about, Well you guessed it, an “Inverted trough”.
    He Said: “dangerous forecast territory, plus completely marginal temp. profile”

    He indicated it could keep the snow going into Sunday night.
    😀

  223. Turns out neither camp is really going to be “right” from yesterday.
    Less rain, AND less snow. Mother Nature ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS has the final say, no matter how much we think we have it nailed down.

    I don’t care having to make an adjustment to my preliminary numbers that I put out yesterday because they were not outrageous to begin with. 🙂 Adjusting downward, covered in a blog update by the end of the afternoon.

    So, Boston won’t break any snow records with this upcoming event, and it will leave them 4 days to accomplish the task. Ironically, if it is to happen, it will take place on the day of the gathering. 😉

      2. I just got the image of a stoked snowboarder completing a gnarly super pipe run when you said that, O.S. 🙂

      1. Yes, I know. It was lock step with the Euro.
        I wonder if they are siblings? 😀

        AS I said, I am liking this model.

        Perhaps it should be rolled out and not called experimental
        anymore?

  226. MAZ013-015-016-RIZ001-230515-
    /O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0004.130223T1900Z-130225T0000Z/
    WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…BOSTON…QUINCY…
    FOSTER…SMITHFIELD
    413 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
    SUNDAY EVENING…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
    EVENING.

    * LOCATIONS…SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…AS WELL AS MUCH OF
    NORTHERN…NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY WET SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MANY
    LOCATIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER
    TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

    * TIMING…SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
    HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING…
    WHEN 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ITS
    POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN FOR A TIME NEAR
    AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. ANY SNOW RAIN MIX
    IN THE WATCH AREA WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE EARLY
    MORNING SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM
    WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING.

    * IMPACTS…THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET
    SNOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
    SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. UNTREATED ROADS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
    BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
    SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD…OR 8 OR MORE
    INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
    36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
    TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

        1. As your forecast is currently constituted, jackpot areas could receive 6-9 inches. The NWS is calling for 6-10. You stated that you plan to downgrade your snow amounts in the afternoon package so I’m wondering why you don’t the NWS discussion is off base. ?)

          2. My downgrade is more for southern areas, took a 2-4 down to a less than 1 and 1-3 areas for far SE MA. The northern areas only got reworded from 6-9 to some areas of 6+. Not a big change for me.

    1. Read their discussion. Despite the GFS/EURO and now the NAM trending further southeast and weaker, they still aren’t pulling out all the stops. They want to see how the models respond overnight. However, since the storm is not poised to track outside the BM and doesn’t intensify until well east, I cannot understand how 1-2″ per hour would verify. It appears to me that if this latest track and strength of said storm truly verifies that 2-4 inches total would be difficult to realize. Hour by hour we are losing this storm and snow totals continue to dwindle. Believe me, this storm is lost and it’s a matter of time before all local METS including TK and NWS forecast this as a complete bust IMHO 😀

      note: When snow totals begin to slowly rise, that typically results in a big storm. Yet, when snow forecasts slowly lower, the storm almost always busts.

  228. OS,

    You are HEATED!!! At least most people don’t see what the NWS has posted. If the Mets keep cool so will everyone else.

    1. I’m not sure if I’m more upset because the NWS seems clueless despite the fact that weather forecasting is their job OR if it’s because their forecasts are so inaccurate/irresponsible at times…or perhaps both!

    2. Just to clarify OS I was kidding…No the NWS has just been awful lately. Will see what happens come saturday night and sunday.

  230. I agree to disagree bc in the watch area that is possible but Boston and along 95 to Providence I would not expect that at all, those kind of conditions will be west and NW of Boston while Logan gets just an inch or 2

  231. One thing is whatever snow falls during Sunday will only accumulate on grassy surfaces, I don’t expect roads to get accumulation will c

    1. I saw your response TK. Thank you. What do you see around Dedham, Norwood, Westwood in terms of snow amounts? 4-6?

  233. Hi troll with the IP address of 108.7.32.37 … your comment didn’t make the blog today, but it did find its way into your “Depends” that you suggested we all wear. 😉

    Have a nice day!

  234. two words…. THIS STINKS!!!!!!!!!!!!! seems like the trend is much weaker with boundry issues. no one gets over 6 inches.
    areas east of i95 1-3 inches. areas west of i95 3-6.

    we need to remember that the models might start to agree on somthing 3 days before to have the models do a 180 🙁

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