Saturday Morning Update

295 Comments

10:15AM

I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible meteorology had steered me (and most of us) to conclude. As is usual, I tried to hold back on numbers until at most 48 hours out from what I considered to be the start of the event later today (hence first numbers posted late Thursday). These numbers are going to end up too high. I made one adjustment yesterday when reliable guidance and other signs were suggesting the new storm would be weaker and a bit further offshore. And as those trends continued to the point it’s now apparent that we’ll be dealing with a much weaker system, there will be further adjustment. That said, it’s not like I’m expecting a few snow flurries. It still is going to snow this weekend in a good portion of southeastern New England, and this snow may linger for quite a few hours into Sunday night as an elongated upper level disturbance traverses the region.

Beyond this, we will still see a tranquil break to start the new week on Monday into Tuesday, followed by a long stretch of unsettled weather. This appears to want to evolve as a very large scale and complex upper level trough or closed off low pressure area, and a series of surface disturbances resulting. Lots of puzzle pieces sitting out there with set up of large and smaller scale systems, temperature profiles, etc. – so the approach here will be to come at it carefully and not try to tell too much too soon. I’ll make a first decent stab at this in  Sunday night’s “The Week Ahead” post. For now, forecast wording beyond Monday will be very generalized.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain and snow (snow mainly interior MA and southern NH). Highs around 40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain coast and south of Boston, mix/snow elsewhere. Little snow accumulation. Lows 30-36. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Steadier precipitation mainly rain/mix South Coast of RI & MA including Cape Cod & Islands, mix to snow interior RI and southeastern MA, snow elsewhere, continuing into the evening before eventually tapering off. Snow accumulations by the end of the event at night: Nothing to coatings closer to the South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, building to 1-3 inches interior RI & southeastern MA and just inland from the coast from Boston north, 3-5 inches further northwest especially north of the Mass Pike and along and outside Route 495, with isolated 6 inch amounts still possible in higher elevations. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N up to 20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 36. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 29. High 37.

295 thoughts on “Saturday Morning Update”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Could you possibly comment on the moisture along the SE coast. There are some
    pretty decent radar echos down there. What does that mean for us?

    Thanks again. 😀

    2. That, my friend, is the southern stream energy that is not going to get so involved with us. That is the “could’ve been”, the unrealized potential, the no-longer-expecting-over-6-inches, the lost revenue of the plow contractors, and maybe most welcomed, the “yay I get to keep my power all weekend!”

  5. So one can argue that the GFS is going to do a better job than the Euro finally, and that is at least partly true. But how about some of those snow #’s the NAM was spitting out INSIDE 48 hours from the event? Clearly, something is amiss with the GFS and the NAM. The goverment needs to look into this issue. Maybe the Euro is missing this, but at least it did adjust itself to get it basically right as we head into the event (what, not 10 days in advance this time? shameful!). Still hands down, the best model.

  6. Wow!! That rain looks way east!!! Something’s not right, I’m suspect that we get little if any accumulation

    1. The accumulating snow isn’t coming from that anyway. The majority of it is going to be coming from an upper level disturbance coming from the west northwest.

      1. Yeah I guess it’s gonna produce this elongated trough that will swing NW to SE, like u said that going east and south is what we needed to have a biggie

  7. ummmm NAM. nurlun trough set up some where in northeast mass /southern nh/southern maine? is that what im seeing or is it somthing else. Had it for 2 runs now.

  8. I also think it’s possible we have some minor flooding to end Feb and start of March, yes it’s early so will c

  9. Hey TK & others…is Bill Hovey still with us? I noticed that he was discussed briefly in the previous blog. I remember him well during his days on Ch. 5.

  11. I apologize for asking this question since I’m sure the answer has already been shared, but not able to locate so can someone please give me timeline for today/tomorrow’s storm. Need to run some errands and trying to adjust my travels around the storm. Thanks 🙂

  12. I just got an alert that the NWS has increased Boston’s snow totals to 3-6″ from 2-4″ What gives?
    1206 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST SUN NIGHT.
    * LOCATIONS.WESTERN.CNTL & NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
    WHICH INCLUDES THE BOSTON METRO AREA.
    * HAZARD TYPES.SNOW.
    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

    1. That’s right. At exactly 3PM, a switch will flick and it will start snowing everywhere (except where it’s too warm and then it’ll be rain). 😉

  14. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1HLcS10HDQ

    This is a really neat video BECAUSE it introduces Paul Cousins, who replaced Barry Burbank at this channel when Barry headed to Boston. Ironically, Paul ended up coming to WBZ as the morning/noon TV guy a few years later. 🙂 Anybody remember him? He wasn’t bad at all. But apparently was a bit gullible, as somebody I knew from college once called him at the station and said they were having a huge t-storm on Nantucket, after which he went on the air and said something like (paraphrased from memory) “There is nothing showing on radar, but I’m hearing reports of thunderstorms on Nantucket!”

    2. Thanks TK. Yes, now I do vaguely remember Paul Cousins after looking at the video. IIRC he never really impressed me one way or the other. Yes Bill Hovey was somewhat bland to me as well, but I liked Bill much better.

      Didn’t Don Kent personally introduce Paul Cousins to Boston later?

      1. Probably. I can’t recall it but it was around the time Don retired so it probably went that way.

        Does anybody remember Shane Hollett from Channel 7?

  15. 12Z Euro Keeps Boston Area Northward Below 0C at 850mb. Total qpf isn’t all that
    much though. Anyone have the totals?

    1. Thanks Hadi. Much higher than I expected. Also, it is spread out over time,
      so those 2M temps are going to prevent a whole lot of accumulation.

      Perhaps this is the reason why NWS upped their totals to 3-6 inches? 😀

    1. One can almost see or at least envision a trough of low pressure linking
      the new low on the coast, with the primary low in the Great Lakes. The basis
      and beginnings of the future potential Norlun Trough. 😀

  19. Here is the text output for KBOS

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    12Z FEB23
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    SAT 12Z 23-FEB -2.1 -5.2 1024 83 74 0.00 554 535
    SAT 18Z 23-FEB 3.5 -3.9 1021 68 55 0.00 553 537
    SUN 00Z 24-FEB 0.9 -1.2 1017 92 99 0.04 551 537
    SUN 06Z 24-FEB 0.8 -0.5 1013 99 95 0.34 548 538
    SUN 12Z 24-FEB 1.6 -1.5 1009 98 87 0.15 544 536
    SUN 18Z 24-FEB 1.4 -3.2 1007 98 96 0.20 539 533
    MON 00Z 25-FEB 1.0 -6.2 1010 96 99 0.08 536 529
    MON 06Z 25-FEB -0.9 -7.1 1013 93 95 0.10 536 525
    MON 12Z 25-FEB -2.8 -6.8 1018 90 94 0.01 542 528
    MON 18Z 25-FEB 2.9 -6.2 1020 69 78 0.00 545 529
    TUE 00Z 26-FEB 0.1 -7.7 1024 86 50 0.00 549 530
    TUE 06Z 26-FEB -5.9 -7.4 1025 94 36 0.00 552 532
    TUE 12Z 26-FEB -8.3 -7.9 1028 93 16 0.00 557 535
    TUE 18Z 26-FEB 3.6 -7.1 1028 70 10 0.00 561 538
    WED 00Z 27-FEB -1.5 -4.4 1027 83 16 0.00 562 541
    WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.7 -2.3 1023 83 34 0.00 559 541
    WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.5 -2.6 1018 88 91 0.13 557 543
    WED 18Z 27-FEB 2.2 -0.5 1011 92 100 0.22 553 544
    THU 00Z 28-FEB 4.1 0.8 1004 93 68 0.37 547 543
    THU 06Z 28-FEB 3.9 0.6 1000 99 64 0.13 538 539
    THU 12Z 28-FEB 2.4 -0.7 1000 98 59 0.01 534 534
    THU 18Z 28-FEB 8.2 -2.2 999 61 63 0.00 532 533
    FRI 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 -2.8 998 95 70 0.00 530 532
    FRI 06Z 01-MAR 1.1 -6.0 999 96 79 0.05 529 530
    FRI 12Z 01-MAR -0.3 -5.6 1001 92 96 0.10 530 529
    FRI 18Z 01-MAR 2.4 -6.4 1002 74 81 0.03 533 532
    SAT 00Z 02-MAR 0.7 -6.0 1005 93 95 0.03 536 532
    SAT 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -5.4 1005 96 97 0.03 536 532
    SAT 12Z 02-MAR -1.0 -5.0 1006 96 97 0.01 536 531

  20. I was looking through Harvey’s book “Great New England Storms of the 20th Century” and in describing the Valentine’s Day Blizzard of 1940 it was 14″ of wet and unusually heavy snow got me wondering if it was a similar setup of “what could have been” this weekend had this storm developed more and the two jet streams had merged off our coast. As much as I was looking forward to the snow…the thought of having to shovel 12″+ of the heavy stuff…UGH! 🙂

    1. Probably would have been very similar.

      There are people out there trashing the weather guys and gals today that you KNOW are really happy they don’t have to shovel 10-15 inches of mashed taters…

    2. In other words, I wonder if those temps on and just prior to 2/14/1940 were borderline like ours yesterday and today? 😉

      1. They may very well have been, and things coming together took care of the temperature issues during the storm.

    1. That’s a beautiful loop and is nicely illustrating the separation of the old low in the Great Lakes and the newly developing low on the SE / Mid Atlantic Coast. That wide sweeping cloud setup from southern New England southward toward the Gulf of Mexico is called a “baroclinic leaf” and is often what you will see just prior to cyclogenesis (or storm development).

      1. Thanks, TK! Never heard of a “baroclinic leaf” before. Interesting and thanks to your great blog, I am always learning new things.

        1. Definition Of:
          Baroclinic leaf
          Bible Dictionary Meteorology & Weather Dictionary
          an elongated cloud pattern formed within the jet stream zone associated with marked baroclinicity (i.e. strong thermal contrast). The boundary (in satellite imagery) on the polar air-mass side of the development is well defined, and has the look of a ‘stretched-out’ “S” shape. The downstream / warm air-mass edge is less distinct. This feature represents the initial (or frontogenetic) stage of a system development, certainly in the mid-troposphere, and often (but not always) at the surface. Not all baroclinic leaves lead to marked cyclogenesis although they will be the first stage of such. (See also Dry Intrusion).

  22. Hey TK, where are you digging up these mets from the late 1970’s/80s? LOL. 😀

    Yes I vaguely remmember Shane Hollet from Ch.7. IIRC he was kind of a jerk. Just my opinion on that. Some of those young mets back then just never impressed me.

    Barry, Bob Ryan, Harvey, Mark Rosenthal…those impressed me when the first started here. 🙂

    1. How about Tom Chisholm? He spent a good amount of time at Ch 7 after being in the Providence market for some time. I always thought he looked like he could be the brother of former Bruin and Bruins analyst Barry Pederson. 🙂

          1. Yes, another young met from yesteryear that I vaguely remember and stayed a short time here in Boston…never impressed me either one way or the other. Glad to know he is doing well and still in a met in Portland ME obviously. 🙂

  23. TK, any chance the norlun trough could develop a bit further south so that Boston can get in on a bit heavier snow for tomorrow?

    Also, Kevin Lemanowicz first mentioned the norlun trough last evening and called for 4-6″ for Boston but I guess that total is overdone now at this point?

    1. There is a chance, but I have a feeling it sets up shop to the north for a while, then in a weakening form swings southward through eastern MA to end things.

  24. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    223 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

    SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION YET AGAIN BASED ON TIMING FROM REGIONAL RADARS. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

    STARTING TO GET CONCERNED ABOUT SNOWFALL FORECAST. 23/12Z GUIDANCE HINTING STRONGLY AT A DRY SLOT WITHIN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION BETWEEN 24/00Z AND 24/06Z…OR 7 PM TO 1 AM EST. WILL
    CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

    1. You know your forecast is in trouble when the foundation is still crumbling after the house above it has already completely fallen down. 😛

  26. After a few hours of drizzle, now have a burst of moderate snow in Coventry, Ct. Large wet flakes. 34 degrees.

  28. Those of you talking about the earlier forcasters.! Has anyone mentioned Stuart Siroca?Dr. Fred Ward? Look up E.B. Rideout . Reported weather on radio . Quite well known back in the day .

    1. We talked about Stuart Siroca before, but not today.
      He was a character and a half. I remember them catching him 0n
      air in his bare feet. Hilarious.

      HE used to also do radio forecasts from the beach at Marshfield.

      He knew is stuff.

      1. Stuart Siroca…a young met on Ch.7 a joke IMHO. 😉

        Dr. Fred Ward…Excellent! IIRC he started the wx term “snizzle” a mix of drizzle and snow grains? 🙂

        E.B. Rideout…first to forecast 1938 Hurricane and was an inspiration to Don Kent if I am not mistaken. 🙂

    1. I am not surprised regarding that rain/snow line. The latest radar shows rain along the NH seacoast and it is also raining in Albany NY.

      JC and Melissa yesterday at noon showed the line pushing all the way up the NH/ME coast.

  31. 3:21 pm on the North Shore. No rain, no snow. Looking at weather radar, precipitation appears to be heading due east. Storm looks like its heading OTS.

  32. Snowing pretty good here again in northern CT but given its 34, and JJ’s got rain, I’m guessing it will switch over fairly soon.

  34. Mark I thought here I was going to get a burst of snow. Instead its been rain with a few flakes mixing in when it rains hard. I would be surprised if 1 inch happens here.

  35. I suspect many areas will see a quick burst of snow at the start since dew point temps are in the upper 20’s to near 30 degrees but rain should be the dominant player for much of the night. My bet is those WW Advisories will be taken down shortly as well perhaps reinstated in a precious few areas briefly tomorrow evening.

  36. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ (22 minutes ago)

    Watching for potential inverted Nor Lun trough development Sunday Coastal NE & ME. Locally heavy snowfall amounts possible here 6″+

  39. And it’s raining here now, with a few stray flakes mixed in from time to time. I don’t expect to muster an inch out of this either JJ.

    Hopefully something materializes out of the couple potential threats we have next week. It would be a bummer to waste all this negative NAO and come up short handed. I’m not quite ready for spring yet…

  43. Retrac,

    Are those images from your new stuff?
    NICE!!

    Of course it is from the NAM. 😀 I presume 18Z NAM?

    Haven’t seen a thing here just yet. Still waiting.

    1. No, I’ve had that stuff forever. It’s a great site and has lots of goodies – and for free. I do donate to them though since I appreciate it so much.

      Here’s the site – enjoy!
      http://coolwx.com

    1. The column data is so key. Probably the most important and easy to read when in marginal situations especially. Nice and easy cross section of the atmosphere.

    1. Still 4-6 where I am. Little richer than my 3-5 expectation but not far off. We’ll see.

      Not surprised about Boston.

      1. Boston got really shot down on that one, but there is still the mystery of that norlun trough for tomorrow night.

  49. I know Dr Hart the creator of coolwx. He is a brilliant and generous man. A professor at Florida State.

    I have a very difficult time forecasting elongated or norlun troughs. A weakness of mine for sure. However I have significant doubts about the westward reach of the trough.

    I tend to agree with the NWS map.

    1. I am no met and very limited meterological knowledge but I get the feeling even the most experienced have trouble forecasting those norlun troughs as to exactly where they set up…Thanks JMA.

  52. Read the WBZ blog and as usual, amusing in a sickening kind of way. I left a reply for someone, out of fun. 🙂

    1. That’s the first time I’ve viewed that blog in probably close to two years. Nice TK. Don’t you just love people who preach from ignorance. I’m embarrassed for fools like that.

      1. Most of that crap is 1 or 2 people…all those different names. It’s the same person who keeps making attempts to enter this blog but will remain unsuccessful (even if they did get it I could bounce them in the blink of an eye).

  58. Tk, do you think Boston will see any accumulation of snow tonight. Also could you give me the same information for tomorrow. I’m just seeing conflicting information.

    1. I think Boston sees 1 inch or less during tonight. Tomorrow (entire day and night), they max out at 1 to 3 inches (closer to 3 if steadiest snow comes end of day and early evening which may happen as Sir Norlun in his armor rides his great white horse southward with enough vigor). 🙂

      1. So that would probably be like grass coating tonight maybe. That’s what I heard on 7weather. Tonight and tomorrow no accumulation on roads or walkways. He was thinking maybe road accumulation tomorrow night. Is that your thinking. Thanks.

        2. Tomorrow night stands the best chance of road accumulation. By then it will be getting ready to exit, but the arrival of the cold air and the lingering moisture will occur at just the right time to give a decent chance of resulting in the need for road treatment (possibly plowing). If snow comes down hard enough during the redevelopment phase tomorrow midday-afternoon, some roads may also cover over.

          1. Thanks. Thats what mike is thinking for Boston, no sticking tonight but by late am and early afternoon tomorrow.

      1. Keep me updated for the city if you don’t mind. Just conflicting information out there. Im hearing rain for the city tonight, but than information here and there on snow. Wankum just said nothing should stick tonight as its melting on contact, that is boston. He said starting tomorrow afternnon it starts to stick in boston and calling for four inches. But also said it will be like a race to get that as the storm pulls away. Im hoping to get through the night without a call.

        1. Once this first area gets by and things lighten up it will be a mix of precip and not much will stick or stay on the road tonight. This happens by about 8PM or just after around Boston. I think you get thru tonight without a call.

          1. Yea, thats what I’m hoping for tonight. Ideal would be after 8am tomorrow for the call. That would be perfect. Tomorrow will be my third Sunday in a row doing snow.

  63. Starting snowing around 6 in Woburn but the flakes are not frisbee-sized yet, just slightly larger than average.

  64. just got back from walking the dogs, we are on Revere/Malden/Saugus line with open space to the ocean in Revere (winds usually blow harder here when from the eastern quadrant). Best description I can come up with is that “white rain” is falling from the sky (no…not the shampoo lol) and a bit windy.
    Off to a local restaurant….you all have a great night.

  66. After the initial burst its more light rain than snow. The heavy burst seemed to move through from Uxbridge thru hopkinton and on east replaced by light rain mixed with snow

    1. Same here Vicki we had a brief period of heavy snow and in that 15-30 min window is when it accumulated a quarter inch, not much happening now

      1. There is absolutely nothing on the roads and driveways here. How about there Charlie. And it’s back to snow now

  68. What are we looking at tonight? Snow/Mix to rain with a switch to snow tomorrow during the day? Small accumulations?

    1. Pretty much the deal. Still remains to be seen if over 3 inches falls in parts of northern MA and southern NH from inverted trough enhancement.

  69. Just had a heavy sleet shower, with a few big wet snow flakes mixed in. Enough to ever so slightly coat the lawns and make the walkways a bit slippery. Some very big sleet pellets. Precip intensity just dropped off and switched to light rain.

  70. What’s the predicted totals for the east facing coastline such as Boston, Quincy within a mile or so of the coast.

          1. Vicki that is SO funny you just asked me that! I literally JUST went on there…I had deleted everything about a month ago because I wanted to start over. I was going to give up on it, but now that I am getting a book of poems published, I want to set it back up. If I form an audience maybe it will help me sell 🙂 I just put up my first new post, haha.

            Yes, I am not crossing my fingers for school this time around…I have already been spoiled enough!

            2. I just did a cheer and my family looked at me as if I’m even more nuts than normal. I can’t believe you are being published. I would love to buy one of your first books of poems. PLEASE tell me!!!!!!! Thanks for the link

              Did you know a Steve buchanan at endicott ?

              1. I can’t say I know any Steve.

                Hahaha, thank you Vicki, and yes I’ll let you know when it comes out.

                And TK, yes I do think you came up with the title for my blog hahaha. And Vicki when you said “Careful Emily. He’s going to want a cut” I thought you said “Careful Emily. He’s going to want a cat.” And I laughed so hard because I was so confused! HAHAHA

  75. I think Charlie mentioned the fact that there is so much more sunlight now that even a few weeks ago. True. However – and this is my big problem with spring (March through May) in coastal Southern New England (SNE) – you often don’t really notice more sunlight because there is often so little sun. What I love about coastal SNE is the amount of sun during the summer, fall, and winter, compared to any place I have lived (caveat: have never lived in California or any Southern climate, which wouldn’t be a fair comparison anyway). We’ve been blessed with so many gorgeous sunny days this winter, and last fall and summer (and last spring, but that was an anomaly). But, when it’s supposed to be a season of rebirth mother nature just loves to whack us with cut-off lows, raw, miserable weather that can seemingly last for days on end. This week may be prelude to a spring that I’m afraid will be like so many I’ve experienced in Boston: Relentlessly rainy and raw, with weekly teasers thrown in to make you feel like it’s spring. And usually teasers end with sea-breezes, in which we shiver at the coast while people bask in the sun and warmth inland. The period March-April is generally a time when I yearn for anything but March-April (my annual seasonal affective disorder). I become nostalgic for the cold, blustery, but sunny days in the teens in mid January, and the splendidly tranquil autumn weekends in October, with the bluest of skies and sun splashing over magnificent colors. Gosh, even triple H in July beats 40s and gloom.

    1. I find myself not so bothered by the overcast, drizzly, 40s of early and mid Spring. Just part of the climate living near the North Atlantic. I love how we get it all here. 🙂

      1. TK, I realize everyone’s preferences are different. I think that I got used to the most beautiful springs in England and Holland. An awakening from a very long, dreary, gray late fall and winter in which nothing happens. Winters in England and Holland are exceptionally boring. Very little happens except lots of 40s, clouds, and light rain. Their summer and fall tend to be a bit dismal, too, but spring in Holland (which begins in earnest by around the 10th of March) can often be unbelievably nice: 55-70 and sunny, practically no wind, often for weeks in a row. That’s virtually unheard of here. It’s telling that the Dutch have three words for spring and only one for each of the other three seasons.

      2. It’s funny how many times you and I say the same things about weather that are similar TK. I was about to make the same comment. For me there is something special about all of the different weather scenarios we have in New England.

  76. The mixed snow and rain is just rain now, it’s funny cause temps have come down 33.8 degrees, mild way up

  77. Hello,

    Just came in from running some errands. Temp here in JP has dropped to 33.
    STILL SNOWING. NO RAIN whatsoever. Accumulating on car tops, any bare ground and sidewalks. Beginning to get slushy on streets.

    1. I got called away, but no sooner had I hit the enter key above, when I looked out and saw SLEET bouncing about. Still Sleeting now. Snow is done for now anyway.
      boo….

  78. I think that norlum trough will be weakening as it moves through, I’m seeing 1-2 inches across eastern mass tommorrow between 2-8pm and that will pretty much sum of this storm

    1. 00z stuff should be interesting.

      Looking forward to seeing how the NAM and GFS resolve their differences.

      I’ll wait till tomorrow to see if the Euro is looking to cook something up for us next week.

  82. Good evening all. Finally home after running around the Burlington and Woburn area converting our new bank branches. Raining here in Plymouth but there was a slushy cover on my car so it must have been a mix for a little bit. Hope everyone enjoys the rest of the weekend.

      1. Thanks Vicki……it actually went very well. Lots of prep work certainly paid off. TK…..I thought of you as soon as I saw the “Entering Woburn” sign. 🙂

  83. I think I’m losing snowcover down here, it’s been raining for about an hr moderately and the quarter inch we got is gone, back deck had a thin layer but has melted

  84. SREF is showing a general 70% + chance of 1/2 mile or lower visibilities tomorrow 9z for a good portion of eastern mass. say west of 128 and into 495 area(s)

    1. Vicki,

      I took a ride up along the coastline last evening and one of my stops was in Humarock.

      So, I crossed the bridge and took a left at the intersection and drove the road, with the South River on my left, all the way to the hill that has the small military compound at the top of it.

      Well, the rocks and dirt that have been moved is eye-opening. As I recall, it used to be that if you were in a regular car, you couldnt quite see the ocean over the natural barrier of sand and rocks. Unfortunately, you can now, and much of that sand and rocks have been displaced in front of the homes and across the road onto the hill bordering the river. Thank Goodness many of the houses before the road comes to a fork are built on stilts.

  87. The latest CPC has normal to below temps for us but bone dry coast-to-coast for the first week of March even though we have -NAO and +PNA which should be ripe for east coast storms.

    TK, all I have been hearing from the met community is that the stormy setup is expected to continue into March…what happened all of a sudden?

  88. Vicki NWS reporting 1 inch in Framingham.

    I think whomever gets under the trough tomorrow will get a good
    chance at 6+ inches.

    1. The nws is nuts. The snow never even covered the flagstones or grass we had cleared for the dog. I’m in north Framingham. Would there be more snow south?

        1. Gotta be. I’ve be on my usual perch by the window since about 5:30. But framingham is a big area so maybe south of here

          1. Should add that I never thought we got that 30 inches they reported from the blizzard. I have several reliable protested areas and I didnt get that high.

  91. Pouring in Marshfield after a slow transition from sprinkles to wet snow flakes to heavy sleet to now rain. I’m guessing we’ve tallied about .2 – .25 melted.

          1. Tom thank you for telling me. I didnt see it. I copied it and sent to my kids. You went right by our summer house and by the street the house we were to be at in march is on. Both had a lot of exterior damage, I didnt know I insurance doesn’t cover any exterior damage to houses.

            It still amazes me that as narrow as that section is that it is still there.

            Thank you again!

              1. Brant Rock took a hit pretty good as well.

                For now, the town has cleared the roads very nicely, but has left the rocks where they landed. I dont blame them, if another storm comes, just clean it up later in Spring when hopefully, the intense storms break until tropical season.

            2. Oh your welcome !! I love that area to drive in every so often. Sorry about that home and it not working out for March. Also, the roads leading into Humarock, such as the one that goes by Coast Guard Hill, where they sled in winter…. The yards are filled with downed trees, still !! Our piles of down, chopped branches, etc.

              1. Ferry street. Daughter said it seemed worse than Humarock too. I am very happy this storm fell apart. Enough is enough in your area

                1. Indeed ! The tides this weekend are borderline astronomically high with the full moon Monday, so, I think the coast would have taken a beating again had it all phased and cone together.

        1. All is good Tom, hoping the same for you. The truck is awesome. I got to play with the 4×4 driving into work last Sunday morning. It was a nice smooth ride, and the highway was snow covered. Just over a month now and already has 1800 miles on it. Happy with my purchase. You must be itching to get back into the groove of work. I think that was crazy that they made you go back for one day. I’m ready for summer and a Sunday off.

          1. 1,800 miles, wow !! 🙂 I seem to recall using our F150 in 2002 a lot when we first purchased it. Now 11 years later, we try to use our smaller car for everything in hoping of conserving the truck to pull our camper.

            I’m ready for warmer weather and I hope you get a Sunday off soon !

            That one day we got in helped keep our last day to a Friday as opposed to a Monday. I am so glad this event really unraveled and am hoping there are no more cancellations. Its felt like we’ve had the whole month off and I’m going to have to find a balance btwn covering more new concepts, while reviewing all of the old stuff. We’ve had something like 15 out of the last 16 days off.

            1. I’m glad the storm did as well. I wish nothing was coming tomorrow. Yes, wow is right but I’m driving into Boston seems like everyday. My wife says you did not buy it to have It sit in the driveway. You will bounce back in school. Pembroke got an email saying anymore days off and may look at April vacation or school on Saturdays.

              1. John one more day and framingham loses April vacation and we haven’t had as many days off as you. I don’t know how they can take vacation. Tons of Families have plans

                1. I will personally shovel a way to school going forward. I’m sure I have many colleagues across the Commonwealth felling the same way. 🙂

              2. Well, lets hope no more days off then because that April break is needed to recharge one more time for the last two months of school and the spring MCAS !!

                Perhaps with unsettled weather due next Wed-Friday ish, next weekend will be void of any precip. Here’s hoping !

  93. The Euro and GFS have two different views of the NAO. Euroforecast is way negative and GFS not as much. It will be interesting to see which one is right in the end. The Euro NAO forecast, if I recall has been all over the place at some points this winter.

    1. Yes …. and to look at the NAM, even its latest 0z run, it brings the primary low up into the eastern Great Lakes and sends its secondary coastal development in as a coastal hugger, so, I’m guessing it isnt bigtime into negative NAO.

      Whereas, the King somewhat more shows the primary low eventually hitting a roadblock and then the subsequent disturbances getting strung out south of New England. After seeing what happened this weekend and assuming the negative NAO forecast is correct, I’d have to think the EURO’s scenario is more plausible.

      1. Yes, looks that way. Hopefully not negative for the long term if we are going to have rain events. Don’t need another March 2010!

  96. Just got home after driving along the Pike from Auburn to Newton. Saw every type of precip. Traffic was very slow — slick surface and too many sand/salt trucks. Got a little dangerous at points.

    1. Interesting, from Framingham to Jamaica Plain back to frozen precip….

      And that speckily, almost convective type precip starting to develop in parts of NY state. Wonder if thats part of the upper disturbance that holds the precip in our area tomorrow ?

  98. Actually, BB and I had chatted about the winter pattern and agreed that the second half of Winter (February / March) stood the greater chance of the more stormy pattern.

  99. WeatherWiz… I’m up on the hill right now and there is 1/2 inch more snow up here than there is down in Four Corners.

      1. Absolutely. We just left the hill with almost 1 inch on the ground, went down to 7 Eleven and there’s only 1/4 inch there. Less than 1/2 mile away but significantly lower in elevation.

    1. See I just don’t get all the conflicting information that the mets putting out tonight. You have Pete saying 2_4 coming tonight and than you have five saying2-4 accumulating probably later tomorrow with the last part of storm. Its tough for me who is on call. Do you get that snow sticking tonight, waiting for the phone to ring, or do you get the sticking tomorrow some Time. It’s frustrating when the mets say different things.

      1. It’s varying from place to place. We’re on a line. It comes down heavier, it snows, it gets lighter, it rains. As you may have seen above, there is almost a 1 inch difference over 1/4 mile distance where I am in West Woburn right now. Top of hill, 1 inch snow, roads slick. Bottom of hill, 1/4 inch snow, roads mostly wet.

  102. Reading on twitter that potentially a new northern hemisphere temps has been recorded of -96.1 F in Siberia. Waiting for confirmation.

    1. Harvey now saying Boston 1-3. Probably just wet snow at noon Time with still no accumulation. He is saying later when temp drops the tail end of the storm is when it sticks.

  107. The met’s are doing a fantastic job tonight. I don’t think anybody actually realizes how complex the situation is tonight.

    You don’t need a “major storm” to have a complex situation.

    I challenge anybody to try to keep up with the p-type and where roads are getting covered and where they are not. You won’t be able to do it. 🙂

  108. Took a quick peek out and it’s raining here, temp has come up to 33.1 from a low around 10pm of 32.2, we did happen to get a very quick quarter of an inch the .23 of rain has since washed it away. Like I said in an earlier comment in a funny way that we r actually losing snow cover here with all this rain, good night 🙂

    1. I don’t think most of us were going for adding to the snow cover very much tonight. Most of the adding is coming tomorrow, and especially north of Boston.

        1. Impact from snow tomorrow will be less down there. Not seeing more than 1-3 inches in most spots. The relative jackpot is going to be north and northeast of the city. Still not 100% sure about the placement of the inverted trough. It hasn’t really formed yet.

  109. Joe Joyce giving a wide 1-3″ east-west swath from Boston out along the Pike. 3-6″ in Worcester Hills and possibly 6+ north of that. Cape and the Islands, the usual coatings and rain only areas.

    I think he said we might not see snow til this afternoon.

    1. Harvey (CH 5) giving the east west swath from Boston out along Pike 2-4″ and Worcester Hills 3-5″. The usual adjustments for Cape and Islands and way north.

      All TV mets I heard this am still wrestling with RS line and the actual arrival time of cold air/snow.

    1. Your lucky Retrac. Heavy drizzle here and 37.9. No sign of any snow from yesterday and even some melting during the night.

      1. Like I’ve said above we actually lost snow cover here too north, here we r thinking were all adding, but wondering if we will have bare ground by Mon am haha kidding but wow!!! Didn’t think snowcover would significantly shrink 🙂

          1. One of my friends lives in Norton and he says very little snow left on ground from a half inch of rain last night

  112. Good morning, just got back from Franklin, just wet roads and lightly raining, temps around 35 degrees, no accumulation

  113. Hard to believe it will snow later…any snow from last night is gone and then some…raining moderately right now. Wish this was it! 🙁

  114. Already looking ahead to the next event Tues night into Wednesday which looks mostly rainorama for areas at or near the coast and wintry mix going over to rain in the interior. From reading the NWS discussions out of Taunton and Upton NY looks like the EURO is trending colder. With that said there still looks to be a transition to rain.
    Late week storm is for the fish as of now but still keeping an eye on it.

  118. This to me was a good thing that this did not pan out because the snow would have been heavy and wet which is not only tough to move but could lead to power outages as was the case with the October Noreaster when that heavy wet snow just clinged to the trees and power lines.

    1. Yes agreed. I know a lot of people on here wanted big snow but I was more than fine dodging a bullet this time.

  119. I love the snow but I don’t like several inches of heavy wet snow. Living in CT with the October Noreaster I could tell you the heavy wet snow caused a lot of damage and some places were without power for over a week.

  120. I do find the end of the week unsettled weather interesting. If the NAO projections are correct, that event would be occuring as the negative NAO really maxes out.

    Like this weekend event changed as it got closer, so will that one.

    I just think things have a much better chance at playing out a lot more wintry later next week than its appearing now. Of course, wouldnt be surprised if it ends up so surpressed that our region ends up on the northern edge of things.

    1. Whereas poor Melissa Mack in the Chelmsford area …. There’s like 4 snowflakes flying in the whole camera shot.

  123. Pete B. is funny…

    “Slow wrap to the snow this afternoon and evening. It’s not in a hurry to leave…

    …but I can’t wait for this storm to go.”

      2. Only one of the reasons I like Pete. He simply likes everyone. JR the two times I’ve spoken to him seems the same. I did get an email from Pete fri night. He is reading the blog. He said he’d like to post occasionally but the network discourages them from private blogs. Assume its the same for BB

        1. Though BB has never told me, I am sure they tell them not to post on private blogs. I know BB reads this one.

  124. To kirbet: One of your messages got lost in the “awaiting moderation” folder because of a different email address. It was from yesterday around 3PM. Approved it, just so you are aware. 🙂

  127. Last evening it snowed w/big flakes in Sudbury – coated bushes but walks and driveways had very light dusting. Around midnight it wasn’t snowing – not sure if it was raining. Earlier, around 7:00 this morning there was a very light snow falling. Now it is snowing moderately w/big snowflakes. Doppler radar shows precip. slowly moving north. Looks like rain Boston and to the east.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

    Unfortunately, this radar doesn’t distinguish snow from rain. But looked on TV (Weatherscan) shows snow and rain.

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