Boston Area Forecast – Saturday Update

29 Comments

2:15 PM

Good afternoon everyone! A brisk, chilly late March day out there. Temperatures holding in the 30s along with a gusty W to NW breeze means wind chills dip into the upper 20s at times!

There is not much in the way of change in how things look over the next few days. Low pressure traveling well south of the area tomorrow may present a shield of high clouds across the southern sky, possibly enough to filter the sun at times. Otherwise, a dry and chilly pattern will last into the beginning of the week. As we get to midweek, moderating temperatures seem fairly certain. What is uncertain is the timing & track of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest. There are vast differences in the medium range guidance, but given the emergence of a split flow pattern – seperate northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams, the models will have a little difficulty with timing and phasing, or lack thereof, of the jet streams. History has shown me that a certain computer model (The European, or ECMWF), performs better, than the GFS. My forecast will be influenced more by that model, when it comes to potential events at the middle of the coming week. With this in mind, we will introduce increasing clouds to Wednesday’s forecast and precipitation to Thursday’s. I say precipitation, because there is about an equal risk of rain or snow, or a combination of the 2, and this far out from the event, it’s too early to say with any confidence which kind may dominate in the Boston area.

Forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind W 10 to 20 mph shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

EARLY DAYS OF APRIL: More frequent storminess with variable temperatures, averaging a little closer to normal.

29 thoughts on “Boston Area Forecast – Saturday Update”

  1. Thanks TK for the update! It is a good sign that you have left the door open for either p-type for Boston. I suspect though that the interior is almost assured for snow, correct?

    1. As it stands now, I’d lean that way. I still don’t think this is a “big” storm as in fitting in with the noteables of March & April past. But it’s something to watch, for sure.

  2. And of course the new Euro comes out and slows things down a bit… 🙂 Not much though. Even that model is going to have some timing issues with this pattern. Well, back to Don Kent style forecasting for a while!

    1. TK when you mean “Don Kent” style, do you mean forecasting w/o computer models as much and relying on other methods?

      1. Well the comment is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but yes that is the reference I am making, regarding the fact that the models will struggle during this transitional time.

          1. Depends on the day / situation. I’ve pretty much seen it all in the past 20+ years. But I was also spending alot of time watching model behavior while forecasting Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, South America, AND North America. Alot more possibilities present themselves.

  3. Philip my bracket took a major hit with Ohio St losing last night to Kentucky. I hope Kansas wins tomorrow so I get at least one team in the Final Four.
    As for the next storm potential I would favor more wet than white although I won’t rule out snow mixing in for the elevated areas of SNE.

    1. Jimmy, I imagine most brackets are messed up by now to some extent. I would be shocked if there are many office pools with anything close to perfection.

      1. It seems all of our local sports teams are “stinking it up” lately…the Celtics are not acting right on the court, the Sox pitching staff are terrible (yes it is spring training but still), the BC Hockey team lost badly vs. Colorado College in their tournament (8-4 and not even THAT close from what I understand) and finally the Bruins continue to be…the Bruins.

        Oh well. 🙁

        1. I saw most of the BC/CC game. It wasn’t even close to being that close. The Celts will rebound (no pun intended), and the Sox will be fine come regular season time. The Bruins are always the Bruins, but this team has the fight of the teams from the late 1980s. Haven’t seen that in a while.

          Watching the diurnal cumulus dissipate as the sun sinks. Clear, cold night ahead!

      2. Look at who was in net- I believe that if the bruins are to go deep into the playoffs they would need to be the road team. Tk I
        only saw small amounts of the game, was the blown call at the end when they crashed the net. Blown call or not you should not go a home game without scoring. They need to regroup before heading into the playoffs. Not a bad day today Tk a tad bit cooler than yesterday. Thank’s for the updated forcast.

        1. The blown call was an offside they missed, which resulted in a faceoff in the B’s zone, which lead to a goal. Faceoff should never have been there.

  5. It will be a cold crisp night with dew points currently in the single digits. that wind will save those temps from free falling. But there will be a wind chill.

    1. Agreed……….. Its funny to look at the clock (its after 6:30pm), still see the sun and know that its only in the 30s outside.

  6. Radational cooling tonight for sure. Wind still gusty as well. Feels more early Feb out there then late march.
    Office pools must be in disarray!

    Tom that late sun is great!

  7. Unlike TK I actually went outside today walking around my neighborhood twice, late this morning and again late this afternoon and the cold reminded me of April 5, 1982 the day before the infamous April 6-7, 1982 snowstorm/blizzard. On that Monday April 5th I was outside learning construction surveying. The only times I was inside was for about an hour of classroom instruction, 15 min coffee break and 30 minutes for lunch. Taking down notes outside was quite difficult trying to keep my hands warm. The only difference is that IIRC that particular Monday had 100% sunshine with deep blue skies while today had puffy fair wx clouds. I am glad that I didn’t have to work today and having to wait for the T…brrrrrr.

    According to Mike Waunkum a windswept warm rainstorm with temps in the 50s for Thursday…still looking for that last snow.

    1. I think Mike Waunkum is a good met. I grew up watching CH5. I like Harvey and his team a great deal. I grew up watching Dick Albert, but I really like Harvey. In my oppinion Harvey was right on the money with all the storms this winter.

  8. If I am not mistaken (and TK can correct me on this) the Bruins in their very first game in the brand new c. 1928 Boston Garden lost to the Canadiens 1-0. I am not that much of a hockey fan, but I believe I read it years ago in a newspaper article in the sports section…a bad sign right off the bat (or stick?). 😉

    1. That’s interesting I would like to hear TKS feedback on that. Hey Philip isn’t this blog a nice place to come. You know we can come here and talk about the weather or sports or any thing else, and not haveto put up with some jerks coming on here looking for trouble just for fun. Tk outdid himself for creating this blog.Look forward to reading your weather posts as all you guys teach me so much about the weather.

    2. I am almost certain that was the outcome of game #1. But I don’t think it’s any kind of omen to later in the season, or the playoffs. The Bruins control their own destiny. 🙂

  9. There’s a sharp temp contrast (40s to 70s) over a hundred, maybe two hundred miles in the south and along that contrast, there are a lot of severe thunderstorms with some tornado warnings in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama. Hoping not, but have a feeling severe weather damage in the south could be a part of tomorrow morning’s news.

    3. One of my good friends (went to school in Woburn a year behind me) lives just outside Birmingham AL with her husband and children and I get alot of storm reports from her. They get nailed alot down there.

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