Developing A Storm Complex

289 Comments

7:38PM

Unsettled pattern! This will be highlighted by a complex storm arriving late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday with a combination of precipitation across southeastern New England. Lingering unsettled weather is expected after this, through the upcoming weekend, though this time we may escape a weekend storm threat for a change.

The focus for now will be on the upcoming storm, as it will have the most impact this week. It will be evolving as a big upper level low pressure area and surface system, with a sprawling warm front trying to push northward into New England later Tuesday into Wednesday but getting stuck, allowing cold air to hold on. The bulk of the precipitation will likely fall as rain along the immediate coast and across southeastern MA, but inland, and especially areas north and west of Boston, snow is expected at least at the start of the event late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A rain/snow line should push northwestward during the storm on Wednesday, but it may have a tough time doing so over areas well northwest of  Boston and especially higher elevations, and even closer to I-95 if precipitation comes down heavy enough. We also have to watch interior valleys where cold air may be trapped at surfaces, allowing icing to take place when rain starts to fall. I’m still not sure where exact transitions will take place and when, but this will be given a first guess in this forecast and tweaked as needed through the event.

Once we get to Thursday, milder air should have overtaken all levels so that we are seeing scattered areas of rain for the first half of the day, but as upper level low pressure drifts overhead, the upper levels will cool enough that some snowflakes may mix back in at times by later in the day. Not expecting any significant snowfall from this part of the system.

The first 3 days of March will likely feature lots of clouds, maybe some spotty rain or snow showers Friday with less of a chance of these over the weekend. Though some guidance suggest more sunshine by the weekend, I’m going to remain on the pessimistic side for now, and forecast clouds to dominate, along with below normal temperatures. This will probably continue into early next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-32 interior to coast. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partial sun morning then becoming mostly cloudy again. Highs around 40. Wind light variable becoming E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation developing toward dawn as mix/snow inland, mix/rain coast, rain Cape Cod. Lows upper 20s well northwest of Boston to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Islands.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain coast and southeastern MA, mix of rain/snow possibly alternating from just west to just north of  Boston, snow/mix further to the northwest may become more rain during the day. Some snow accumulation, up to several inches, possible but mainly well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-43 from northwest to southeast. Wind E to ESE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers changing to scattered snow showers. Low 33. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow or rain showers. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

289 thoughts on “Developing A Storm Complex”

  1. Thanks TK.

    This is a re-post from previous blog:

    I think that the 18Z GFS is crap warmed over. I can smell it from here! 😀

    We’ll see what the real runs show at 0Z. 😀

  3. Late tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning, a double barrel low will lift northward on a strengthening ESE jet at 850-950MB, we will have a high over the Maritimes, and thermal profiles will be borderline.

    Ok so that is about it for what we know.

    Here is what I expect. In valley and urban and populated suburban areas of SNE I expect the system to start as rain, not snow. As the northward progression of the system slows and column cools I expect any rain to transition to snow even in urban areas. The exception will be the cape and islands, which probably remain rain. I think most soundings support snowfall into early Wednesday morning for most of the area after the transition to snow and some light accumulations will occur at lower elevations and ramp up to moderate accumulations in elevated locations. I am quite confident that sheltered valley locations will have particularly light accumulations due to downsloping creating a shadowing effect from the ESE low-level jet.

    From there the double barrel low will morph into one and warm air aloft should push deeper into SNE. However, northerly ageostrophic winds may keep temps from rising quickly. This signals some more mixed precip than currently being modeled, instead of just a straight snow to rain scenario. Eventually though surface temps are going to rise and not just in urban locations, I see the potential for temperatures rising all the way up to a 1000ft. Causing a region wide transition to rain on Wednesday in all but the highest locations of SNE.

    Underplayed right now, but quite possible are strong winds in the elevated locations of SNE due to that aforementioned ESE low-level jet.

    By Wednesday night the low is vertically stacked and the column will cool and a transition back to snow is possible, although I tend to not buy into significant rain to snow scenarios, but additional snow accumulations Wednesday night seem possible to me, particularly across higher locations.

    I expect this to be more of an advisory level event for snow accumulation because I am not sure we can reach the 24 hour snowfall criteria for a warning event in SNE even in the elevated locations. The advisory area maybe extended south and east because the storm may have morning commute impacts.

    1. Thanks JMA. I was thinking earlier today advisory level snowfall could be acheived with this storm system. Wednesday morning commute will tough across the interior.

        1. Knew what you meant and I think the same potential but hard to tell what Taunton’s criteria is for advisories and warnings.

    2. Thanks JMA! Feeling like crap today and I could barely figure out how to word my blog. You covered that angle and more. 🙂

      It was interesting to see both Harvey and Pete .. their forecasts were quite a bit of a contrast. Harvey to the colder side, Pete to the warmer.

      1. Sorry TK that you feel like crap. Hopefully it is a quick thing. I have a friend who has had some kind of viral sinus infection that has lingered for 2 weeks. Hang in there and hope for a better day tomorrow.

        I did not see Pete or Harvey tonight. ECMWF does run colder right now and Harvey maybe flying with it. I do see some colder hints, and I expect to even see some snow early Wednesday in Boston, but then I side more with a region wide warming making this more of a rainmaker for the areas where most people live.

        Just can’t get too caught up with models right now. They all suck in marginal temp situations in later winter / early spring and hanging on each run will only further confuse and erode forecaster confidence.

      2. That should not come as a surprise to you. Two totally different mets. Which one do you think I listen too, lol.

      3. Feel better TK. I had the same thing. Still holding on a bit, but I
        feel much better. The more I looked at models (no matter what
        they depicted) I felt better. 😀

    3. Thanks JMA. It’s great having you here. Nice to see you feel there
      will be some snow in Boston at the front end. I understand about the
      eventual warming.

      Very very nice write up. We love it!!

  6. Boundary Layer

    What is the Boundary Layer?

    According to Dr. Nolan Atkins of Lyndon State College, The Boundary Layer can be defined as: “that part of the troposphere that is directly influenced by the presence of the earth’s surface and responds to surface forcings with a time scale of about an hour or less.”

    Here is his drawing:

    http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met455/notes/section1/graphics/bl_scale.jpg

    In other words, it is the portion of the atmosphere closest to the ground and its height is variable from about 100 meters to 3000 meters. When we discuss the boundary layer here, we are “generally” talking about the first 3 or 4 thousand feet of the atmosphere.

    When discussing rain vs snow, many times we talk about boundary layer issues along the coast. The reason for this is that even though upper levels can be cold enough for snow, the wind blowing in off of the ocean transports milder ocean air in towards the coast. If the wind is strong enough, it mixes the lower levels to the point that the entire boundary layer can warm to approaching the ocean water surface temperature. IF the ocean is warm enough and the wind strong enough, then it will rain. The snow falls into this warmer layer and melts producing rain.

    We had this problem with a storm earlier in December. Same problem last year with
    the big October storm. When ocean temps are in the mid to upper 40s, virtually impossible to have snow along the coast with a wind blowing in from the ocean.
    As we move more into Winter and the ocean cools, then it is not as large a factor, but still can be. That is why we want to see the winds NE to N. The more Easterly and Southeasterly the wind, the warmer the air is over that ocean.

    The boundary layer can also be an issue with Southerly or Southwesterly winds. Again, upper levels could be cold enough to support snow, but warmer air is transported on those winds and mixes the lower levels, eventually warming it enough
    to melt the falling snow into rain.

    With this upcoming event, with the ocean temperature at 39F, it is marginal. With a cold Arctic High, it would be a non-issue, but we don’t have that so it very well could be an issue. That coupled with an East to EastSouthEast wind will slowly transport
    some milder air into the boundary layer near the coast. The tricky part of the forecast is how much is this a factor compared to the Dynamic cooling that potentially
    heavy snow will produce. Sort of offsetting factors if you will.

    That is why you will hear Rain along the coast (some mets interpretation) or snow
    along the coast (another met’s interpretation). If it snows, then it will be eventual
    warmer air at upper levels that changes it over to rain. If it rains, then the boundary
    layer overwhelmed any dynamic cooling that was going on.

    An interesting situation to be sure.

  8. I have a question…I know we don’t have an Artic High to our north now but can one just form out of nowhere? I know Highs can only form over land or water but in the next couple of model runs can we have a High just appear?

    2. Probably not.

      Highs and lows have some dependency on how the jet stream is oriented. Unfortunately, the orientation of the jet stream in southern Canada wont be oriented in such a way to form a cold high to our north and northeast.

  9. I know we don’t necessarily need a cold high to our north, but I believe at some point it will be required in order to get back into a snowy pattern before this winter is over. The atmosphere is only going to get warmer every day from here on out and my bet is this upcoming storm is not going to bring any real cold air on the backside when it departs like most do. I am hoping though that there will be one more good snow for March for a change…it has been awhile since we had one for that month.

    I do not want to have to rely on dynamic cooling…too many ifs, ands and buts required. 😉

    I have been fighting a cold since the blizzard myself. Get well soon TK! 🙂

  12. In tonight’s battle of “Harvey vs. Pete”, unfortunately Pete should easily win…a slam dunk of a forecast (widespread rain) if I have ever heard one. Too much ESE jet.

    2. Don’t agree on my own. In addition in a battle of mets, I’d take Harvey
      ANY DAY over Pete. Now there’s a slam dunk. 😀

      1. Ahhh but what Pete predicted that seemed to confuse some and was questioned was spot on and more often than not when his forecast is questioned here, he ends up being right. Remember – I never hesitate to say so 😉

  13. Thanks all!

    And yes JMA I agree about the models. I’m usually comfortable with the Euro as a rule but I am not completely comfortable with it right now. I do not blindly follow the Euro though. It’s a re-evaluation of everything on a daily basis.

    1. Yes, pretty much, however, I detect an ever so slightly warmer solution, especially noticeable at 42 hours when compared to 18Z at 48 hours. Yes, I just looked again. With the 0Z for the equivalent same time, 0C line is farther North
      over Central and Western MA. than on the 18Z run. I expected it to trend colder. Oh well. We’ll see what GFS shows, then the Euro. 😀

        1. Ah. Now I can get a glimpse of it. Massive!!!

          Now that should contribute to blocking in the classic sense. No?

    2. My bad. Just looked at the run again and it is a vigorous northern piece of energy that comes down and blow it up. Just looked at the 500mb chart.

        1. For sure. Cool to look at even for fun now.

          It drives -10c 850mb temps all the way to the Florida panhandle and -5c well into the norther gulf.

          That would stir some things up.

      2. The NAM hasn’t been itself this year, that’s for sure. You know the GFS and I have had our differences but it did show some sobriety for this last storm. I believe the GFS is even able to find redemption……..maybe not. 🙂

    1. This thing has the potential to produce from a trace to a foot over a distance of about 10 miles…

  24. Hello everyone, I don’t think there will be many problems do to snow in Boston or the I95 corridor to Providence, there will be some slushy coatings but washed away with at least a half to three quarters of an inch of rain to follow late Wed am, I think as u go south and east of Boston this is a rain event, just north and west and southwest of Boston out to 128 belt a quick coating to 1 inch of snow, as u go north and west of 128 and to 495 1-2 inches ending as a brief period of rain, north and west of 495 2-3 inches, personally intensity, daytime temps are the reason I’m a little on the conservative side, just a littke to much to overcome imo have a good night and thanks tk 🙂

  25. So i called yard they can’t make reservation but I can call ahead an hour before which I will do. I am making reservation for ten people. OS are you joining us?

    1. Great – thanks for taking the lead on that. Never been there. We hillbillies don’t stray very far beyond the garrison.

        2. I really get a kick out of when JMA cites “where most people live” in his forecasts. I mean, he’s totally right but it still makes me laugh. Holden is about 17,000 strong. There’s probably that many people in any mall inside of 128.

    1. I’m telling you, 1 degree of model error is going to make a big difference in snow vs. no snow this time. Not going to be surprised if Townsend MA, for example, gets a foot of snow.

  30. 0Z GFS no great shakes either. Keeps any snow WAY N&W.

    Euro up next!

    Sorry, couldn’t resist. Took a peek at the GFS. Shame on me.

    Where is all of that blocking? Supposed to make this thing pass underneath us.
    Not showing that either on GFS or NAM.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. 0Z UKMET is COLDER still.

      What is it with these foreign models?

      Geeze, what are we to think.

      I’m back on the at least a front end dump of snow and perhaps more!

      😀 😀 😀

    1. I know. I saw rain on 5 leaving at 5am today, 1030am driving in couple inches Boston and 106.7fm had coating for Boston. I’m sorry but that’s a big variety. It’s just not fare to the viewer or listeners who may only have the time to watch or listen to one forecast. This is all rain for Boston Im thinking

      1. Based on what JMA explained yesterday, we are not all going to come up with the exact same forecast every time.

        It is science.

        1. We don’t even see consensus here which makes it even easier for me to understand why we do not among the stations. It’s unfair, IMHO, to expect.

  36. This has rain written all over it for a lot of the area. Euro temps are not good for most of us. On to the next chance IMHO.

  37. 0-2 inches for most mainly along and outside of 495.. 2-4 north of the mass pike in central mass 0-2 in the valleys. lower elevations of western mass 2-4 inches. 4-8 higher elevations of north central and northwestern mass. 8 to 16 inches of snow for southwest nh up into central /northeast new hampshire up to eastern maine.

  38. Thanks, TK. Hope you are feeling better today.

    My thoughts on the upcoming storm is purely hope – that they get a lot of snow up in ski country and rain for the Boston area. Looking out the window at the hazy sun towards the southeast (haze is really fog) makes me think of spring and summer. But the snowbanks kind of ruin the whole effect. Longer days and birds singing in early morning now have put me in spring/summer mode. Enough snow! Unfortunately, although this storm may be more of a rain producer, I still see more snow in our future.

    1. When I said haze is really fog – didn’t mean that haze is fog. Two different things. The fog makes the sun look hazy. Just wanted to clarify! 🙂

      1. Good morning, rainshine, I was surprised to see the fog and the sun too when I opened the curtains. Made for a nice affect or is it effect?? I love listening to the sound of the birds in the morning now as they call for spring and the daffodils are up about 3 inches.

        1. Hi, Vicki – I think it is “makes for a nice effect”. In any case, sometimes at this time of year, the crocuses start to show. Well, if they are there now, they are buried under a lot of snow!

          1. 🙂 and yes it is a love Effect !! – ours come up on the south side of the house where there is a bluestone walkway which helps melt the snow quickly, not to mention it’s against a white siding which reflects the sun, so I think they tend to be extra early. However, they’ve been there for 20+ years and do manage to come up far earlier now than they did in years gone by. Hardy little things!

  39. TK – please take care of yourself. As many have said, this thing lingers and it seems to be centered in most cases in sinus/throat area. My husband is still coughing and clearing his throat after 5 weeks. I go in and out of feeling better. The majority of people I know have this thing and once it takes up residence, it is difficult to evict!

  40. Good morning,

    Yes, it sure looks like rain, however, I don’t understand why the foreign models
    (Canadian, Ukmet and to an extent the Euro) seem to have colder solutions, at least
    with the 0Z runs. I really thought that the blocking would force the system to the South underneath us. It would appear that it will more or less move over us, bringing in both warmth above and warmth in from the ocean. (And yes Vicki, it very well may be that Mr. Pete will be correct. :D)

    I suppose it could change, but sure not looking that way.

    Regarding the system next week, 0Z Euro takes a rather potent storm OTS.
    Of course, that is a LONG way out there and subject to change. 😀

    Still, will have a look at the 12Z NAM soon.

  41. March first is Friday, yay. Although winter is not over it sure is a good feeling knowing it won’t be long now till the s word goes on the back burner. Atleast we had a winter this year compared to last winter.

  43. A slop storm still looks to be in the cards. To me its your classic brief burst of wintry precipitation to rain for areas near or at the coast. Inland wintry precipitation hangs on longer and the higher elevations could pick up several inches of snow.
    Higher elevations could see a level 2 snow event from this storm system.
    A fish storm for late in the weekend but will need to be watched.

    1. It looked promising for awhile, but not so anymore.

      This “could” be a wrap on this Winter. 😀

      I know we have the whole month of March, but things just don’t appear
      to be lining up. (that could change quickly. We shall see.)

      I’m ready for Spring anyway.

      Looking forward to some more fishing. 😀

  44. At least we had a winter this year. If there is no more accumulating snow for Boston snowfall came in pretty close to normal which did not look like it was going to happen as we started the month.

      1. For big snowstorms in March the Superstorm of 93 comes to mind. In April 1982 I believe but it was early April
        and it was a powdry snow which is not typical for the time of year.
        Speaking of winter I can’t believe after this blizzard some people are saying its the worst winter ever. Was this winter a
        a dud no was it brutal no.

        1. JJ – I had said yesterday that 1984 had two March storms – one on the 13th – less than a foot IIRC – and then the big and destructive one on on the 28th or 29th. It’s definitely not a month without a history of some good sized storms.

          1. March is a fickle month where you could have spring like temps and get a dumping of snow a few
            days later. The cold air tries to hang tough while the warmth is trying to move in during March.

        2. 100% agree with your comment, this was a pretty much easy winter. Defiantly though a winter unlike last year. I just did not like all the snow at once. I may actually have a weekend this week without a storm, that would be great. There was a bit of talk going around that I saw on tv a couple weeks ago. Warmer winters, less snow storms but bigger one’s like the blizzard we saw. They were saying this should be what to expect. I don’t think they or anybody knows what one winter will bring. The only thing I agree on is the bigger storms, and not just winter all year.

          1. Global warming advocates have been saying that for a while now and it’s pretty much been the case for the past few years with a series of very destructive storms with above average temps between. I think we need to get used to power loss and roads closing. The midwest is a mess right now.

    3. Lol you prolly want to try and sell it in Dec to get the most money, it’s already late Feb unless your gonna put it on a blue light special sale no ones looking for a snowblower now, probably get more for a lawn mower now 🙂

    1. Hadi,

      At what level? I didn’t see 850mb temps increase until most of the precip
      shut down. Am I missing something? I viewed 3 hr increments with
      Wundermap. 😀

        2. Hadi,
          Many thanks. Boundary Layer for sure.
          That is the ESE wind off of the Ocean. 😀

          I was strictly looking at 850mb temps. Makes no difference IF surface temps are that warm. 😀

          btw, even looking at the NAM and GFS precipitation type maps, they CLEARLY point to low-level warming along the coastal plain.

  49. Not sure technically if I can post but going to anyway

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z FEB26
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 00Z 26-FEB 1.4 -8.0 1023 80 53 0.00 549 531
    TUE 06Z 26-FEB -5.7 -8.0 1025 94 31 0.00 552 533
    TUE 12Z 26-FEB -7.1 -8.1 1026 91 25 0.00 555 534
    TUE 18Z 26-FEB 4.3 -7.6 1026 68 34 0.00 559 538
    WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -6.2 1025 83 32 0.00 559 539
    WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.2 1022 84 35 0.00 558 541
    WED 12Z 27-FEB 3.2 -2.7 1017 90 99 0.06 555 541
    WED 18Z 27-FEB 3.3 -0.4 1011 95 97 0.22 551 542
    THU 00Z 28-FEB 2.6 -1.4 1006 97 72 0.50 547 542
    THU 06Z 28-FEB 4.7 1.7 1000 98 24 0.20 541 541
    THU 12Z 28-FEB 3.2 -0.6 1000 99 75 0.02 533 533
    THU 18Z 28-FEB 8.0 -2.6 999 64 82 0.00 531 532
    FRI 00Z 01-MAR 2.9 -3.1 1000 96 90 0.05 531 531
    FRI 06Z 01-MAR 2.1 -4.8 1001 97 82 0.07 529 529
    FRI 12Z 01-MAR 0.0 -6.9 1004 91 88 0.05 531 528
    FRI 18Z 01-MAR 2.3 -8.0 1006 69 97 0.01 533 528
    SAT 00Z 02-MAR 0.9 -7.0 1009 86 94 0.02 536 529
    SAT 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -6.6 1009 90 88 0.01 537 530
    SAT 12Z 02-MAR -0.4 -5.2 1010 87 83 0.00 538 530
    SAT 18Z 02-MAR 6.1 -5.4 1009 54 67 0.00 539 532
    SUN 00Z 03-MAR -0.3 -6.1 1011 70 56 0.00 539 531
    SUN 06Z 03-MAR -4.3 -7.7 1011 80 49 0.00 538 529
    SUN 12Z 03-MAR -5.1 -7.8 1011 78 53 0.00 537 528
    SUN 18Z 03-MAR 3.1 -9.1 1009 51 59 0.00 535 529
    MON 00Z 04-MAR 0.0 -9.6 1008 74 82 0.00 534 527
    MON 06Z 04-MAR -2.1 -9.3 1007 79 93 0.02 531 525
    MON 12Z 04-MAR -3.8 -9.4 1007 76 99 0.00 530 525
    MON 18Z 04-MAR 2.6 -10.1 1006 53 95 0.00 530 526
    TUE 00Z 05-MAR -0.8 -10.1 1008 70 94 0.00 531 525

    1. LOL!!!

      I can relate to all of it.

      Howdy Doody. (Say Kids, What Time Is It?)
      Mr. Wizard! Loved that show!!!

      Thanks for sharing.

      I am really dating myself here, but I can remember gasoline at 18 cents
      a gallon. OH to have that again!!!!

      1. OS just saw your comment. I can remember when I’d take my dads car for the night an replace the gas used for $1.00. Glad you enjoyed 🙂

  51. Good morning everyone, no changes here, coating in the Boston Providence corridor quickly changes to rain, north and west of 495 could get 1-3+ inches, this week looks wet to me and temps in low 40’s

  52. How embarrassing for The town of Falmouth geez, they go through lengthy meetings to put a just 2 turbines, environment impacts etc etc etc now they want to take them down, the only way they will take them down is if they raise tax’s in Falmouth, I don’t understand why we r fighting these and tending to fall back as there are states that these r going up like crazy, for thr future, they had a couple in Ca that had a wind turbine 300 ft away and they say there fine and understood all of the pros and cons but here this is the 5th wind turbine after lengthy meetings that allowed this to be built, now they say take it down, what’s wrong with these people, they r voting next month to raise tax’s to take em down, talk about alot of wasted time and money, it’s ashame

    1. One guy says it’s like being behind a jet airplane, haha anything to backtrack, I’d say either raise tax’s or move the house, deals a done deal move on or have them put a dome around your house, that’s probably just as embarrassing as taking them down, anyways on with the day

      1. I suspect they may be having the same issues as other towns. People who have this right in there back yard I guess its bad. During the day your having all kinds of shadow effects and at night they say your all lit up like a Xmas tree. They say the shadowing is awful. It’s causing people to be traumatized by the affects and than the sound. I’m hearing if you have this in your yard its just bad. Quote from a guy_ my family and I prisoners in our own home.

    2. I cannot understand for the life of me why any town or city would consider wind turbines as a alternative source of energy. They have some many negative impacts when compared to the amount of electricity they produce. My company is New England’s largest solar installer. These installations are harmless to people and the environment. They should install these systems on every municipal building including schools. The majority of our ground mount installations are on old landfills. It’s clean, efficient and can be designed and installed with in a 6 month window. It produces power instantly!

      1. Just a thought…..

        Imagine Solar panels everywhere and I mean everywhere.

        IF we ever had enough of these things, it would affect the
        surface temperature of the planet. 😀

        Of course we are a long, long, long way from that ever
        happening. Just something to dwell on. 😀

          1. If, and this would take a long time if ever, we had all of these panels, it would rob the planet of
            sufficient solar Insolation needed to keep the planet warm. Again, I am discussing it theoretically terms if we had enough of these things.

            In reality, it would never be achieved.

            😀

      2. Many residents in my town of Lunenburg have been fighting the installation of a solar energy farm for four or five years. The project will probably never get past this fighting phase.

        1. Watched it on national news and they had people in other parts of country stating live it doesn’t bother them and knew all the cautions of it and then we have 4 redsidents here saying they want them down, it’s laughable across the country

          1. Charlie are you talking about turbines? Sclarke was discussing a solar farm. There is a 6MW installation happening in Plympton.

        3. And u know what this is gonna do here and have tighter rules and regulations so that there nearly impossible to build kinda like after the glass was popping outa the hankcock tower, since then its nearly impossible to build a talk skyscraper, as the rest of the country moves forward in green energy

        4. 3rd time in mass this has happened yet the same companies here and abroad to all the proposal and approval stuff yet no problems else where, I just wonder the thinking, I’m sure the lawyer can find something against the turbine comp in the contract hence why they won’t build them anymore or at least be wary, onto the weather now 🙂

  53. NWS Discussion has minor accumulating snows for eastern MA Thursday night into Friday. Does anyone else see this possibility?

  58. Hi Hadi
    Will you be making your reservations under Woods Hill Group?

    Thanks for doing this and cant wait to meet you all.

    1. of course, the next panel takes it OTS.
      The point is, it is there. We’ll just have to watch and see. 😀

  60. Arod – don’t know if you’re out there, but if you get a chance – we just got back from visiting my mother who was rushed back to ER again today. She has had trouble walking in the past wk. and couldn’t get up this morning. The drs. couldn’t get an oral temp. from her so they tried a rectal and it came out to 96.8. They say she is hypothermic. They are admitting her. They are trying to warm her body back to normal temp. She is 85 yrs. old and only 78 lbs. They don’t know what is wrong with her – will be doing more tests. My question – how would someone get hypothermic? Isn’t that what people get being in the cold too long?

    Great day – just being sarcastic. On the way home, I did notice how weird the sky looks. Lots of cumulus clouds all across the horizon.

    1. I am NOT medical at all, but diet can fix low temps. I’d pound salty food. Many older people are put on low-salt diet (I don’t agree with this at all!)…fire the metabolim up! 🙂

      1. Thank you, WeatherWiz – My mother is not on a low-salt diet – I don’t live with her so I don’t know exactly how she eats. She has been at 78 – 80 lbs. for many yrs. But thank you for your reply.

    2. oh no rainshine – too many things happening for you. I am really sorry to hear this. Please let us know how your mom does.

  61. Rain shine, you can actually get hypothermia as a complication diabetes, certain medications and believe or not certain traumas can cause it.
    It normally is associated with cold, but in trauma emt’s using “cold” saline.
    With diabetes and some elderly, neuropathy causes hypothermia due to losing nerve feeling, normally in feet and fingers.

    1. Sorry forgot to mention thyroid conditions can cause the body to have rapid heat loss/limited heat production which leads quickly to hypothermia.

  63. re: 12Z Euro

    Still looks like there “may” be some front end Snow in Boston, but then change over
    fairly quickly. 2M temps in the 30s for the first 3-6 hours of precip, before it warms
    well into the 40s. 😀

  64. OS 2 M temps are all above freezing when we get precip going at BOS, maybe a flake or two and then rain 🙁

      1. Also, not mentioned, the forecast High temperature for today
        was OFF the mark. Gee, what a surprise that is.

        JP temp was at 46. Car thermometer was reading 44-45.

        With clouds rolling in, I can envision Boston getting down
        to the mid-upper 30s. Then when the ESE wind starts kicking up,
        it will jump to 40 almost immediately. 😀

    1. Yes, it is a big time watcher. Much closer than 0Z run. 😀

      984 mb. Not a super storm, but not bad either.

    2. 3 days in a row its come closer…… Not going to snow much tomorrow, is it ? Oh well, I was enthused for it. 🙂

  68. With pressure that low if that could track to the sweet spot aka the benchmark then watch out. I wonder with the blocking in place if that will push the low back closer to us or even to the coast.

    2. Wait a minute. It’s a BIG time watcher AND you have an OTS feeling?
      huh?

      So you have an OTS feeling, but it’s a watcher just in case? 😀 😀

    1. That storm threat is real guys IMHO. Might be one of our last shots.

      I’m a believer that it often takes big storms to change a pattern. Question is, will that happen while its still cold enough.

          1. Most recent advice (as they call it) on the Australia Weather Service page has winds at 205 km (around 130 mph) and a pressure of 953 mb.

            While stationary, they expect it to start moving southward overnight.

  72. Thank you everyone for your kind wishes. The drs. got her temp. back to normal and she is doing better. They are keeping her overnight to watch. They did all types of tests and w/the exception of some spot on her lung that they don’t think is serious but to see our family dr. (who is on vacation now) when he is back all tests are normal. She did have hypothermia, probably due to her living conditions. She lives with my sister and her husband. My sister has physical issues where she needs cooler temps. and my mother w/her low weight and age needs warmer temps. These are family issues and I have no control over what goes on there – I try but to no avail. So, hopefully, things will get better. Thanks again for all the good wishes.

    Aaah, actually looking forward to the storm tonight and tomorrow – keeps my mind off stuff!

    1. Precipitation type according to this NAM run = RAIN all the way past
      Southern NH. Oh well, I was grasping. Wasted time and effort.

      NEXT.

  74. Good afternoon everyone!

    Internet was down for a bit. Back up now.

    But see, when my net goes down, WHW stays up, because the server is not on Woods Hill. It’s in a secret location about 6 miles away. 😉 muhahahahaha!

    1. Where is the disaster recovery site in case it’s primary location goes down in a storm??? Oh wait, you would just have the insight to move it ahead of time if that were to happen. 🙂

  77. Winter Storm Warning just went up here. Again, I’m on the very southern extent of the warning area right near that 4-6, 6-8 intersection on KBOX.

    Seems a little high to me as I’m expecting 3″ before flipping – we’ll see!

      1. Totally agree. Maybe I’ll take a drive up to Princeton Center sometime tomorrow afternoon after it flips to rain here.

  78. Ok. Been in meetings all day today. No forecasting for me on this day. Only thing I have seen was a brief comparison panel of ptype and QPF for the 12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/WXC Microcast. Seems like trending warmer, quicker in most southern locations of SNE than I thought last night. Fill me in with your thoughts, if you can.

  79. It appears it’s trended even warmer, this is rain for the Boston and Providence metro areas, alot of snow melt the next 48hrs 🙂

    1. Hadi as you may know Ted Williams was a lifelong family friend. When he asked for a 30% cut in pay on an off year he did so for exactly that reason. I get that jealousy will keep others from getting Brady but I can guarantee you are 100% wrong.

      1. Vicki that was a different era. We are a society that is driven by money. I 100% gtd you that any athlete does what’s best for themselves first and team 2nd. Especially when it comes to football bc most contracts are not gtd. By restructuring he is gtd himself at least 40 million no matter what.

        1. Nah not buying it but I did expect fans of other teams to buy into it. Sorry. I are that comment to my SIL as soon as I heard it. There are still decent people/athletes out there and Brady has never shown another side

      2. No jealousy here btw. I think he’s a great player and a good person but that’s doesn’t mean he does put himself first.

      3. Not many if any qb’s would have done what Brady has done for his team, you know the pros and cons of the deal correct?

    1. That’s exactly what I thought and not a flake more and possibly even less. Been fooled too many times by WAA like this overdoing snow amounts. I wouldn’t be shocked if it ends up being 1.5″.

  87. Hey guys!

    Long time no chat. What a beautiful day it was today. Spent it at the dealership buying a new car! 4 wheel drive, bring on the elements. I’m ready! 😀

      1. Ha! Good one Vicki! The snowblower gets to stay. I traded in my ten year old “beater” of a car. Bought it new in 03. I was overdue for an upgrade. Still pinching myself. So excited!

  88. Ok he’s allowed the Patriots to have an additional 15.7 million to play with and an additional 10.4 million next year

  89. Ok he’s allowed the Patriots to have an additional 15.7 million to play with and an additional 10.4 million next year 🙂

  90. Agree Charlie but I am just pointing out that he significantly benefited from this deal. It’s not like he said I will take less money to help out. See my comments above as well

    2. But he could have had far more so he did take less money to help out. As I said he won’t get credit but the difference will allow the pats to go after more and better and no one can deny that We will agree to disagree

  91. I can assure you he could not have made more than he did with this deal at this point in his career. I see this from an outside perspective that I believe is more objective, like I am not objective on RGIII and never claim to be 🙂

    1. My info comes from my SIL as I have said. He thinks RGIII is one of the greats. It’s possible he was more upset than even you by his injury because he goes by lifelong stats. Ill stick with his idea of objective and continue to agree to disagree :). But a good discussion nonetheless

    1. In a few months those yellows and reds could be some potent thunderstorms that are being tracked. I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.

  93. The models were saying it all along, but I’m still surprised the primary storm and eventually the secondary near the coast have come so far north. I really thought there was going to be a bit more atmospheric resistance and the track was eventually going to be suppressed a bit further south.

    1. Since I went with then colder scenario, I was hoping to find some obs in NJ showing snow once the precip started, but to no avail. Had to practically go west to Buffalo to find frozen precip.

      If anything, there’s a pretty decent warm sector in parts of eastern NC with temps and dew pts in the 60s and a line of thunderstorms in the outer banks.

    1. Ah, my favorite place to forecast for … Been quite accurate there in the past. 🙂

      I got the sense from the radar last weekend, they got some decent snows.

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