March In

177 Comments

4:32PM

Well here it is. March. Mud season. The late winter doldrums (refer to the 3rd definition of the word on dictionary.com for what I mean by that). Some people hate it. Fewer people love it. Some people probably don’t really care. But it is here. And many people associate these days with grey skies, muddy ground or old half frozen granular snow piles, unwanted late winter storms with snow, or rain, or a combination thereof. If you are a skier, you probably love this time of year because of lingering mountain snow, the ability to still make snow on the colder days and nights, and longer daylights to enjoy  your hobby (or sport), and being beyond the coldest days of winter so you are not out there getting frostbite while you slide along on your oversized popsicle sticks. 😉

The early days of March 2013 will live up to many of the stereotypes listed above. What I am certain is that the first 5 days will feature more clouds than sunshine, rather chilly air, and limited precipitation. What I am uncertain of is what will come of the threat of a significant late winter storm during the middle of next week…

Upper level low pressure will spin about the area during the next couple days, keeping clouds dominant, and also creating a few areas of rain and snow showers. Don’t expect much in the way of snow accumulation though. By Monday and Tuesday, this upper low will be east of us, barely, so we’ll still feel its influence, but also with the chance of a little more sunshine trying to sneak in between stubborn clouds and fleeting sprinkles of drops or flakes.

Midweek? Oh midweek, that headache 6 and 7 days out. I’d like to ignore it right now, but I cannot do that because there is enough evidence showing itself like a big blob of ink on your wall calendar reminding you of that appointment you DO NOT WANT TO GO TO! What’s going to happen? I do know this: A significant storm will be somewhere near the East Coast. I don’t know this: How far north it is going to come. If it decides to pay us a visit, we’ll be seeing a combination of rain and snow and probably some wind and coastal flooding issues. I’m not usually one to mention these things beyond a few days in advance, but just want you to be aware of the possibility of something significant next week. Stay tuned for more…

Reeling it all in: Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early, scattered snow showers overnight. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM or night snow/mix/rain. Low 32. High 38.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain. Low 30. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

*** On a personal note, I would like to send congratulations to Barry Burbank for 35 great years at WBZ TV in Boston! May you enjoy many more!

177 thoughts on “March In”

  1. Originally posted by Old Salty (thanks O.S.!!)

    From the NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Forecasting the weather used to involve looking at a few forecast charts from one source and then deciding whether they had a handle on what was going to happen. Today, there are several sources of forecast information. Each individual source today provides far more information than was available from all sources 35 years ago today.

    In this image we have an overlay of the forecasts of computer models from three different sources (one USA, one Canadian, and one European) as seen by our AWIPS computer workstation. This compares what each model says the Thursday morning weather map will look like. You may recognize the H’s and L’s from conventional weather maps, and the isobars that surround them. The maps show a general similarity, but with differences in placement that would cause somewhat different results. These features will change with each run of the computer the next few days.

    Which is right? What will happen 6 days from now? Stay tuned.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/299771_414801715280872_961459002_n.jpg

    1. I’m leaning towards the GFS right now, haha did anyone just here that? Haha seriously I think it’s closes to what I think what will happen 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.
    I enjoyed waking up and watching Barry Burbank when I was going to college up in Massachusetts and his morning trivia.

  9. it goes winter,mudseason,spring,presummer,summer,prefall,fall,mudseason #2 prewinter. 😉

  13. 18Z GFS back to previous solution, much more OTS with a slight grazing for us. Of course it is the 18Z run, devoid of data. We’ll see what the 0Z runs and subsequent runs reveal.

    1. Hey OS, I’ve been reading this blog for a long time and have always noticed people disregarding models based on the time of day and I’m not sure why. What precisely is flawed with the “18z GFS”?

  14. As I understand it, the 06Z and 18Z runs of the NAM and GFS do
    not have as many data points. In other words, the computer runs
    are initialized with incomplete data, therefore often rendering the
    results to be not so reliable. Obviously, there are enough data points such that someone in control believes the runs are worthwhile, but I suppose that is a subject for debate.

    1. You can receive a little info from each model, it’s trying to figure out which info is right haha

  16. From the NWS this evening:

    ALL OF THE GUID TRACKING THE MID LEVEL LOW WELL SOUTH OF 40N IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF THIS FAR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS TYPICAL WHEN BLOCKING PATTERN IS ANOMALOUS AND FORCES STORM TRACK INTO LOWER LATITUDES.

    HOWEVER THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY SO CAN/T WRITE IT OFF YET. THUS
    STILL A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME RAIN/SNOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…ESPECIALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE NEARBY OCEAN WATERS.

    Well, I guess we know what camp they’re in.

    Blocking wins out and forces storm out well to the South.

    Hmmm

    We’ll see. 😀

    1. I’m going to look at various jet stream winds O.S. to see if I can get some kind of half-**s guess.

  17. Ok – compared the 12z and 18z GFS and here’s what I notice the most

    -18z has a positive tilt 18z march 6th versus negative tilt same time for 12z run.

    -The High to the north is weaker on the eastern flank and a little further west on the 18z presumably nudging the storm more OTS rather than spinning it more north if the high were further east.

    Going to look at the Euro to look at timing.

  18. 12z Euro has a big upper level low more organized and further SE in the far north Atlantic than the 12z GFS. A problem for that run if you want snow.

    Let’s see what oo’s bring us and we’ll compare.

    1. Retrac,

      I admire your trying. Honestly, not sure that is the answer.

      I really don’t know what is going on.

      Look at this 300mb chart at 126 hours. HOW can this do anything but
      come at us?

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_126_300_wnd_ht.gif

      Where is the blocking??

      OK here are the 200mb winds at 126 hours. Not as sharp, so it “should”
      push it along, but it still should move Northeastward and not E or SE ots.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=200_wnd_ht&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_126_200_wnd_ht.gif

      In the above chart, one can see the blocking near Greenland. But looking
      at this one would still think it would come much farther North than depicted.

      I still don’t get it.

      I’m hoping Tk and/or JMA can point it out to us as a learning experience.

      Now look at the 200mb chart at 144 hours. How does the system move
      Southeastward or even Eastward. It would seem it would have to move
      towards the NE??? I still don’t get it.

      Is this blocking creating a West to East flow even higher still that is
      forcing the whole thing to the EAST?

      I dunno!

    1. that last pic i still do in my room :D.. I actually have a whiteboard with the usa and canada on it. and i tracked the storms across it

  21. Not to scare anyone so many days out, but I am wondering if this storm reaches its full potential with a direct hit on SNE would it bring Cat. 2 hurricane winds and widespread 30″+ snows?

    IIRC in addition to the 24″+ snows, didn’t last month’s blizzard produce brief Cat. 1 hurricane gusts?

    1. Lets all hope for an OTS solution on this one. Any heavy precip right now will start to cause flooding, as I have talked to many people today that are close to having water in their basement from a 1-1.5 inch rain storm and snowmelt from this past week.

  22. Actually Philip I think if we do get hit by this storm that at least the coast and cape will see alot of rain and wind and not so much snow. Interior parts could see over a 12″ but I don’t think it will be cold enough along the coast. Just my take on it at this very early stage.

  23. i have marshland to soak this water up. water level going down already bring on the march snow

  24. Good Evening all!
    Yet, another winter storm to watch! It should be an interesting and exciting week on the blog.
    Many congats to Barry! He’s the best 🙂

  26. When we change the clocks next Sunday, the model runs will be 1 hr later. No more early GFS before bed. Does the Euro change too?

  27. can someone give me the ensambles of the euro and gfs. i lost my gfs ensamble site and i wonder if there is a good site for the ensables of the euro.

    1. Thanks OS. Time to go to bed. Traveling around like crazy this weekend. Roundtrip to CT tomorrow and then up to the Lowell area Sunday for a tournament for my daughter all day! So much for a relaxing weekend. Next weekend looks good on the GFS, maybe into the 50’s and putting the clocks forward. Tease of spring?

  30. Well, the Canadian still has a different idea. Tracks the storm northeast and due EAST of New England. And it’s a 974 mb MEGABOMB! (sorry, had to do it!)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    That said, really think it’s futile at this point 6 days out to be getting wrapped up in any one particular model run or even suite of model runs. I really don’t think things are going to come into better focus until Sunday when the storm emerges from the Pacific.

  33. Well I’m gonna wait through today to see if this storm trends north and comes close enough to graze us, the last 24/36hrs I really was thinking this but not so confident today, I’m still gonna sit back through today to see if it does trend closer, if not I may raise the white flag and let the spring gates open 🙂

  35. Ensembles don’t look great either…But don’t forget this system hasn’t even come ashore yet. We still have a ways to go. The Euro operational and ensembles seem to be in good agreement that it stays well to our south. Whatever the case this system is HUGE and will be a big hit for the mid atlantic.

  37. From NWS out of Upton, NY. I would not give up on this storm threat yet.
    LATEST
    OPERATIONALS KEEP IT NEAR HATTERAS AS OPPOSED TO THE
    DELMARVA…WHICH WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE
    CWA. A FEW OF THE 00Z GFS ENS MEMBERS HOWEVER ARE NOW PLACING THE
    LOW OFF THE DELMARVA…SIMILAR TO PREV RUNS OF THE ECMWF

  38. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3&region=he

    Above is a 3 hr hemispheric satellite loop.

    Though the NAO is negative and the blocking is easily seen just to our northeast, I dont believe its positioned in such a way that is conducive to bringing the midweek storm up the East Coast.

    Have a look at the flow above New England. I think you can see that with the low parked just northeast of us and the flow above us, there is no way a storm can make a close approach to us.

    Could the block re-position itself in the next couple days….perhaps. But, I dont think its going to.

    When I think of blocks that are good for storms to clobber us in New England, I think the blocked flow needs to be up more by Greenland and the Davis Strait, instead, it seems to be much further south, by the Maritimes, eastward out into the southern North Atlantic.

    With this setup, I dont believe there will be any northward trend in the models the next few days. By the flow above us, the storm simply will track much more east than north.

  40. A little bonus sunshine to start the day! I didn’t think a clear area this large would be here, but here it is. 🙂 Clouds probably fill back in during the next couple hours…

  41. Logan avg low is still 27F, but with these overnights staying in the mid 30s, it caused Logan to be +4F above the avg on March 1st. So far, today’s low seems to be 34F once again.

    Did anyone see on the picture of BB on his 1st day of work back in 1978 (March 1st) the temperatures on that day ? I think Logan was 23F or 24F and it was in the teens in central/western New England. I suppose it could have been a quick, very cold shot in New England or the other mind set is……. think its warmed up just a bit since the late 70s ? Those temps on the map behind him, it struggles to be that in Dec-Feb nowadays, never mind March 1st.

    1. We had cold shots early through mid March 1978 including 2 plowable snowstorms. It was the pattern that month, after a very long quiet period post-blizzard.

  42. Tom I agree I am not confidant in the storm changing paths. We need blocking near the Davis Straits as Tom alluded. I think winter is close to being done. Bring on decent weather.

    3. I really thought we had one more in us Hadi but if this doesn’t pan out, and with the pattern moderating, we might be done.

  43. Mark, Thanks for all of the maps. Here is another depiction of the Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144

    The fim shows an absolute monster way to the South.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMzeus/from_jet/fim9/2013030200/236/3hap_sfc_f144.png

    The Canadian is seeing something differently. I don’t think we can write it off just yet,
    although most current guidance clearly indicates an OTS scenario. 😀

    1. If I am not mistaken, that’s a 1056mb High sitting right in the center of
      Greenland. Using the 06GFS

      Surface at 10 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

      Here are the 200mb winds at 120 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=200_wnd_ht&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_200_wnd_ht.gif

      Closed circulation at 300mb:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_300_wnd_ht.gif

      Closed circulation at 500mb:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht.gif

      So what is making this move DUE EAST???

      1. Harvey showed a blocking high to the North of us on his map last night and said he leaning towards the OTS solution.

  44. Canadian has even shifted its solution further east and closer to the GFS, FIM and EC. Looking like a miss right now; however, the next 24-48 hours will be important as the energy from the northern pacific emerges onto land. This is when models will get a much better handle on what it will do with the energy once it forms somewhere near the Carolina Coast late next week.

    1. Exactly. Most likely to cement the OTS solution. 😀

      We shall see.

      0Z runs tomorrow night should tell the story.

  45. Barry Burbank is a wonderful forecaster. I’m lucky that I got to meet him once. He’s a gracious, accessible person.

    Tom, I remember February and March of 1978 very well. TK is right about the quiet post-blizzard. But unlike this year it was consistently cold and quiet. Hence, not a lot of melting, at least not for a few weeks. Gosh, did it go quickly this time around. Then March of 1978 was like so many early periods in March in my lifetime: cold, stormy, and truly wintry. How different it has been for the past 4 to 5 years in Boston. Almost no snow, virtually no cold, and just touches of winter here and there. This year looks to continue the trend. Who knows whether this is an actual statistical trend. Probably not, but if this continues for several more years we should all take note. The nation’s winters appear to be shortening. Certainly if we look at the weather map of the continental U.S., we see that truly Arctic invasions of cold air have been non-existent in recent years in March. This is an anomaly.

      1. Can’t say that yet, but it is something to think about.

        I’m relieved January and February were fairly normal this year. However, what concerns me most is the lack of cold air across the continental U.S. in December and March. By the way, this is not a local or North American phenomenon. Places in Eastern Europe and Russia that usually see some cold outbursts in March are not. This is for the 3rd year in a row. This would suggest that the polar air is retreating or `melting away’ before it really should. I’m not an alarmist, as people on this blog will know, but these phenomena should be monitored.

        1. Joshua I agree and think the trend is happening so slowly that it is easily missed. Also parsing data in traditional ways is also not giving an accurate picture.

  46. Todd in his spring outlook is calling for a dry, warm 2nd half of March so assuming his forecast verifies, whatever snow comes week after next will probably be the last for the season until next winter.

    As for my basement, a dry second half sounds very good to me. 🙂

  47. There is little doubt in my mind that this megastorm is the last hurrah! I look forward to the next weather chapter. Bring on spring. Soon enough we will be tracking severe thunderstorms, microbursts and tropical cyclones. I look forward to watching the tropical update on TWC at 48 past the hour, LOL. That’s the only time I ever watch TWC.

  50. So ik it’s early but do we think we have a 3rd consequetive March with no snow or at least very little snow, I think people have short memories bc they have a town streets sweeper at the beginning of the street maybe planning to streetsweep the roads starting Monday? Not sure, I am right on verge to claim winters over but I’ll wait just another day to see what happens, have a good day everyone

    1. Charlie framingham had the street sweepers out here a few days befor the feb 9 storm. Ridiculous. There was not even a collection of sand on the side of the road.

  51. 12z GFS has the Low in Kentucky rather than Tennessee at 00z Weds. so far when comparing to 00z run

    1. Low comes off the North Carolina coast on the 12z GFS run. I believe it goes due east from there and not take a turn a turn up the coast.

        1. Its one powerful ocean storm but over the fish. It does look a little further north. The blocking looks to be the killer here but the fact that it has come north a little I am not ready to write off this storm threat.

          1. It’s a better run than the 00z but still OTS. I won’t write this off until probably 12z Monday unless things really start to fall apart.

  52. Spring just sprung in my house. All winter decorations and flower arrangements went away and spring flower arrangements are out. Tomorrow Easter decorations go up. We may still have 2-5 inches of snow and solid cover but daffodils are up 4-5 inches now.

  53. Idk I really thought a trend north would happen, this is what makes the weather so fascinating, unpredictability, I’m still not bought in on and all ots scenario but will c 🙂

      1. Yeah will c I thought we would see it by now, has to happen in next 24 hrs or it won’t happen

  54. I live right next to the woods. I am watching nature around me…birds, squirrels, etc. They are coming out of the woodwork doing their Spring thing. The snow is pretty much gone. I’m driving the Spring bandwagon. All aboard!

    3. I’m on board. Will fill bird feeders this weekend too. I learned not to fill them in the winter. The chipmunks and mice not only enjoy free meals but they seem to think we have invited them into the attic for the winter.

  55. A few points to make…

    * If the trend toward less snow in March & April is real, I don’t think it’s happening gradually as there have been a fair amount of big snows seen in those 2 months during the 2 1/2 decades leading up to now, with what looks like more of a sudden shut-off. That lends credibility to AO-driven regimes versus a long term change in climate. This is NOT to say there is not a change in the long term climate, I just don’t think that is what is responsible for the “lack-of-snow March” that we’ve seen for 3 years now. Boston in March averages 7.8 inches of snow, 1 day with 5 or more inches, and 4 days with measurable snow of any kind. It doesn’t take much to be “snowless” in March. So it happened 3 years in a row. Not the first time. Won’t be the last.

    *If the midweek storm is a miss look for us to be in a dry stretch that lasts nearly 2 weeks and will start tipping the balance back into the long term drought that we ARE in and will remain in for quite some time. Those few wet storms in December and February DO NOT break the drought. Trust me, as an agricultural meteorologist, we have a very long way to go to make up the precip. deficit, despite having dented it. And we’re about to start adding to the deficit again.

    *One more, possibly two more, plowable snow events between March 15 and April 15 in the Boston area (maybe not the city itself, but at least Metro Boston).

    *For Boston (Logan), first 60 degree day coming in March, first 70 degree day in April, first 80 degree day in May this year.

    2. Growing up as a New Englander I never thought of April as being in anyway involved with Winter but that’s me, when and if it does snow in April is sorta shocking

    3. TK I should have clarified my remark. The gradual Trend is overall and not just march and there is a steady warming trend and has been for decades.

      1. Ok. 🙂
        Yes my reply was based on March/April significant snows basically, not much else.

  56. If Boston doesn’t get any more measurable snow, then Joe D’Aleo’s forecast was spot on. And mine and Barry’s wasn’t far off. 🙂

  57. To answer O.S.’s query about why the storm is more likely to travel east despite blocking: The key is in the out-of-phase jet streams. The ridge is part of a northern stream which is showing a southward shift, pushing the trough from the southern stream east rather than allowing the low to turn left and lift northeastward. The fact it’s out of phase makes it about as far away from a phase as possible. That low wants nothing to do with the ridge north of it, so it’s trying to run away to find “greener pastures”.

    1. I was thinking maybe it would grab it instead of push it but thanks for a better understanding

    2. Thanks TK.

      I am still having trouble visualizing that on the maps.
      I see the upper air charts and say how can it miss?
      Then next frame it moves East.

      Why wouldn’t it move more to the North and Then to the East.
      I would understand that more.

      😀

      1. Watch the loop of the 500 mb heights and vorticity charg on the 12z GFS and that will illustrate the point nicely. Think of the ridge and that trough as magnets that are flipped in such a way they repel rather than attract.

          1. High pressure wants things to move away from it. Low pressure wants things to come toward it. Use this visual often and it will help. 🙂

  58. i would be really happy if this storm comes up and hits us with lots of snow so that school is cancelled it will help me out alot

    1. That’s funny Matt, my nieces and nephews r praying for no more snow days bc if they get just 1 more then April vacation is gone

      1. Charlie same for framingham. I don’t understand how they can cancel April vacation to begin with. Also I believe we still g st out earlier than tom. I’m not a fan of our school superintendent and this makes me wonder even more

      2. im in college so i do not need to make it up.;) have like 7 different papers do this week.

  59. It depends on the law in the state of Massachusetts. Here in CT school can’t go past June 30th. With the way June is setup this year the 28th is the last day school could end before time is taken out of April vacation or make the kids came in on teacher in service days and have a regular day of school and cancel the in service day.
    Hamden CT which had 40 inches of snow with the blizzard cancelled its April vacation entirely to makeup for days lost with Sandy and the blizzard.
    Where I live the last day is the 25th of June and thankfully here there is no week of for February otherwise April vacation would have been shortened or taken away completely.

    1. The 180 day is June 18 in framingham. Best day of the year btw ;). 185 is June 25. They’d have to miss four more days to get to the 28th.

      What happens to the kids who won’t be there for April vaca. My guess is it would have to be a non productive week. I sure wouldn’t cancel plans I’d made long ago and forego any deposits etc. guess its between a rock and a hard place but for here I see no reason when we still have four days to spare

      1. Charlie I quickly checked n Attleboro. That’s where u r right. U start after Labor Day and only have 5 days to play with. I can see that because you’d be going into July

      2. I didn’t know the school year was 185 days long up there. Thats interesting. Here its 181 school days.
        Some schools here in CT wanted that waived due to time missed with Sandy and the blizzard but our governor said no so there is no choice but to take away or eliminate April Vacation.
        I had two days taken away from by April vacation back in the 95 -96 winter and we did some work but in the afternoon on both those days we watched a movie.

        1. It’s 180 days but they mark to 185 so well no last day if snow days. If that makes sense 🙂

  63. The blocking is the killer here and where it sets up is not allowing that storm to come up the coast.
    Will see what the 0z runs say once the system comes on to land.

  64. O.S.

    Look at the 12z GFS jet stream. It peters out right in the end (no phase) and transforms to digging at west cost at about the same time we want it to connect with our storm. The storm happens right at a pattern change it seems but the timing is all screwed up. The trough remains positive.

  66. Our only hope is for data in our favor once it comes ashore but this run to run consistency certainly doesn’t look good.

    1. True. I wonder what the Canadian is seeing that breaks it through and
      more to the North? Bogus Algorithms? Bad initialization?

      OR is it now smarter than the rest?

      Probably just a cheezy outlier. 😀

      Yes that was a purposeful choice of a word:

      Urban Dictionary: cheezy
      http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cheezy
      Anything low quality or substandard. Usually used to describe cheap goods or bad, low-budget movies

  67. CMC is not all that different O.S. from what I can tell. Just a larger circulation. Most everything else is the same (location, strength etc..) It might be driving precip. in here form the long fetch along with maybe some diverging winds?

  68. The orientation of high pressure on the Canadian is perfect for a classic mega-snowstorm in SNE if the low was shown a touch further north.

    I think we get into the northern flank of a monster storm at midweek, but maybe only enough for an overcast sky, a raw east wind, and spotty light snow. Consensus is leaning away from a big hit up here. We’ll see…

    1. It just seems odd. I mean, how many storms can you recall with a snow path like that. Maybe because it’s late in the season why it doesn’t make it past the piedmont.

      1. Surface/boundary layer temps just too mild in the coastal plain.

        OH, to get this to turn up the coast.

        😀

          1. 18Z NAM brings parent low into Ohio with secondary over Eastern NC.
            At 84 hours, really just getting going. Looks to move NE to ENE before moving
            due EAST. I am curious how the NAM depicts things as we continue to get closer
            and the NAM is more in range. 😀

    1. Slower is better. I noticed the 12z GFS was faster too than the 00z run. We want slower for this to phase.

  72. All it’s going to take is another 100 mile or so shift to the N/NW, a little slower timing and it’s game on. Still close enough to get excited for model runs IMO.

      1. Yup, just keeps piling on one spot. Where I am, I can see both the blue sky breaks to the NE and the darker cloud cover to the SW.

  74. Have any of you guys looked closer at the Euro. It looks like the parent low ends up in southern Ohio while a new low develops near Charlotte. Maybe I’m just seeing things.

    1. You’re not seeing things. It occludes off but the overall track is still mostly to the east even with that setup.

      2. 18Z NAM brings parent low into Ohio with secondary over Eastern NC.
        At 84 hours, really just getting going. Looks to move NE to ENE before moving
        due EAST. I am curious how the NAM depicts things as we continue to get closer
        and the NAM is more in range. 😀

  77. It’s still 4 plus days away. I wouldn’t get to carried away yet. Don’t forget last week all the models were in good agreement that we were going to get a decent storm around here and then it completely changed. I think monday morning is when will know what’s going on.

  79. Wxrisk.com
    6 minutes ago
    *** ALERT SATURDAY 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE *** WOW… WESTERN half of VA up into WINCHESTER sees 1-2 feet of snow/…. DCA / BWI now sees alot of snow …. EVEN SOUTHEAST VA will see rain to snow after 7pm WED NIGHT … and we now see MODERATE SNOW up into to Philly and NJ

    here is BREAKDOWN

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