Sunday Midday Update

161 Comments

11:19AM

Quick forecast update (no changes, just making it current). Full blog and discussion for the coming week will be posted by early to mid evening! Have a great Sunday everybody!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

161 thoughts on “Sunday Midday Update”

  2. My hope is for no damage at the coast but an evac of some coastal areas I discovered it isn’t damage as a reason we couldn’t rent this month but what are called professional renters. They moved into the house and even without a contract and without having paid a cent can’t be forced to leave. MA is apparently a tenant state. If they evac maybe owner can keep them out

    1. That sucks Vicki. If I’m understanding there tenets in the cottage you were to rent and they won’t leave, and have not paid. If thats true I cant stand that. I have friends who have been in that situation. It’s just not fair to the home owners. These people have know class and there intention is to screw the home owner intentionally knowing it will be hard to get them out. It can be a long battle in court. Just not fair.

      1. John you are absolutely right. I can’t believe a landlord can’t get a person out of his home if they are there illegally. And from what I understand in addition to losing all income the landlord will have to pay these people damages. This is nuts

        1. I’ve read that before also that u can’t evict people even if they don’t pay, u have to go through a bunch a crap to have someone do it or have a written paper and that usually takes a while,

        2. It’s been like that for a while, the tenants have more rights than landlords, you have to be careful

          1. You sure do and they have a bunch of kids and that makes it even harder. It’s unbelievable really.

  5. has anyone been to Okemo mountain before. its one of the few that i have never gone to before and i plan on going for spring break later this month with my dad

      1. good then it mean no stupid boarders will be on the mountain. cutting and getting in my way and falling on their buts and scraping the mountain and then take out their cell phone and text that they just fell. . i always wanted to go to upstate ny up there . some mountains do not allow snowboarders.

        1. I board and I am not stupid, but recognize there may be some who do exactly what you described – though I would submit there are skiers who defy logic and class in the name of narcissism as well.

          Mad River Glen in VT prohibits Snowboarders, I would reccomend that mountain if you want to stay in New England.

            1. Likewise – I am a very old by boarding standards; there was not an internet when I started 20+ years ago. The only thing you did on a chairlift was enjoy the view or talk to the person next to you. The real-time posts on the mountains are a bit over the top.

              1. i love to talk and look on the chair lifts…. I do take video of myself skiing and video of the trail while going down but im in control. i want one of the helmet cams.

  6. this storm could give eastern sections a surprise later this week with a mix bag of precipitation. but the waves are gonna be huge.

  7. Thanks TK.
    The model data has been consitent and not allowing this low pressure to move the coast due to a blocking high in place.

  8. What’s up with the Euro, still no 12Z data available.
    Problems? Enhancements? Are they in Daylight Savings time already?
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    😀 😀 😀

  9. OS,

    Go to wundermap its running there. Also the Euro looks a littler further north when it gets off the NC coast and throughs some light snow showers into the area at hour 126. It looks like another Norlun trough kind of thing. Anyone else see any changes?

    1. I’m going to take a peek once the full posting is out on Accupro in about 30-40 minutes. I’m looking forward to comparing it with 00z

  14. 12z Euro all in all the same as 00z. Axis of heaviest snow inland toward the Virginia piedmont and apps.

    6″ or so D.C. (maybe less). A good place to be would be Charlottesville, Va.

    Only very subtly difference is at 00z Thursday, the center is further NE by maybe +-50 miles but the end result is the same – due East and OTS.

  15. This storm is going to have a rain/snow line somewhere north of its center in which the rain is to the north and snow to the south. Upside down early Meteorological Spring set-up. 🙂

    1. It might be a “bigger” impact TK simply because its been a while since it’s snowed down there – I don’t know.

  16. If the 12z Euro verifies, then snow lovers (where most people live) 🙂 along 95 down there are going to be spitting nails about a “hyped” storm.

    Ocean is going to get whipped up no matter what. That might be the biggest story.

    We’ll see!

  17. TK,

    Which do you favor for them down there at this point? The GFS shows a much greater impact to populated areas.

  18. Here is the 12Z FIM total precip:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013030312/totp_sfc_f144.png

    Bring almost .5 inch qpf to Eastern MA and almost an inch to the Cape and more
    to Nantucket. This is WAY closer than previous FIM runs.

    Also I want to point out something funky:

    12Z Fim at 78 hours, off the coast of VA, yes VA and this is farther North than other
    models and the FIM previous runs:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013030312/3hap_sfc_f078.png

    1. That’s where it needs to be O.S. for us to even have a chance. Euro still slings this thing right off N.C. coast.

      I’m not giving up on this yet by my confidence level has certainly waned close to 0. I give it a 10-15% chance of changing in our favor at this point.

  19. That 12Z Euro is very strange. It takes a loop from VA Southeastward and then
    sets up off of the NC coast a good 100 miles SE of where it once was. Then it proceeds
    almost due East out to sea.

    This Snowpocalypse forecast for down there could be a colossal bust. 😀

    Still all smells like a dead CARP to me. 😀

    1. I hear you about the Euro. Big impact difference between it and the GFS. Could it be two in a row now for the GFS? Is the King too dizzy on his success? Stay tuned…

  23. Been spitting snow on occasion all day but now some great snow showers. Reminds me of the first snow you see in late fall. Beautiful.

  24. Is this the Beginning, OR just an 18Z tease????

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013030318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=090

    total snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117

    Figure, that far off shore and STILL boundary layer issues with this run. 😀

    Is this the trend we have all been waiting for? OR an 18Z Trick? 😀 😀 😀

    We’ll have to wait for later runs to see.

    BTW, NAM at 84 hours, looks to bring some precip our way as well. 😀

    2. It might be the start of something O.S.

      Let’s see what ooz’s have to say.

      This last run shows 6+ from Worcester East.

      1. I wish the JMA were a little more reliable.
        But even so, it still adds a little bit of fuel to the fire that it just
        might make it up here in some meaningful way. We’ll see.

        The 0Z Runs will be interesting to say the least.

        Frankly, I nearly crapped my pants when I viewed the GFS. 😀

        1. Same here. My odds of a strike just went up to 20% from 10-15%.

          Take another peek at it O.S. Another 50 miles NW and well, you know.

    1. Yes, I know, but you can throw in the JMA AND
      the 12Z FIM runs were MUCH closer than previously.

      Add it all up, and there “should” be at least some concern. That is until
      the 0Z Euro Blows a head gasket and takes it into Hamilton
      Harbor! (Bermuda, for those that may not know. :D)

      1. Euro has been funky on this whole thing right from the beginning. I will say that the GFS has been fairly tight on this so far and if it scores a hit on the Euro, I might consider apologizing.

        The Euro still has this going off like not that far from Wilmington still.

  28. From HM on twitter:
    @Accu_Henry: Still has a foot+ snow in DC but now has 6 inches in NYC, and a foot in Boston. Block is there odder things happen.

    1. How…… from a storm tracking to the south, can a city (Boston) at a more northern latitude, get more snow than a city (New York) at a more southern Latitude ? Oh Henry !!!

  29. @BarryWBZ: Some indicators pointing 2 the Mid-Atlantic storm making a closer pass 2 us on Thurs! I’m not buying that solution yet but bears watching.

  31. Superintendent in Marshfield wrote in his latest weekly communication that its not reasonable for us to go to school until Fri. June 28th (I agree, the buildings are too hot) and that many more days cancelled will result in the difficult discussion of making up days on April Break. Currently we are sitting on Fri. June 21st.

    So, I’m desperately, desperately hoping this doesnt become a big deal.

    As TK mentioned earlier today, the possibility exists where lighter precip on the northern edge is rain and further south, in the heavier precip, is snow. I still think we’ll be ok and its largely a miss for snow. So, if you hear me rooting heavily against this storm or any other, please know I want my April week off to go camping. 🙂

    1. Tom that gives you 7 days leeway. Even as a child I remember always getting out after my birthday 6/18. Ill keep my fingers crossed

    1. Yup, that brings the GFS forecasted total for Logan up to 347 inches for the winter. If the GFS had been 100% correct, our streets would look like those streets in the mountains of northern Japan.

      1. Thorn?

        How about a telephone pole? 😀

        Will then be squirming?

        I will be watching Barry tonight for sure. 😀

  35. Retrac,
    Great stuff.

    Hey Tom, easy answer for NYC=6 inches and Boston=1 foot.

    Look at the map. We stick out into the ocean, thus are nearer
    the center of an ocean going/off shore system. 😀

    And where is that tweet? I can’t find it.

  37. Talking to a colleague. Blocking there, not likely to be as strong as forecast. Timing of N ridge and S energy is not lined up perfectly to keep it suppressed. May make the turn up the coast. This will be reflected in the new blog update coming soon.

    1. TK. Thanks

      You, for one, NEVER took your eye off it. You were always on guard for a possible shift. I got the feeling that others pretty much passed on it due to
      too many strong signs it would be OTS.

      Bravo to you!

      Woods Hill Weather is Ever so VIGILANT! 😀

      1. Thank you.

        We are not 100% sold on it. But enough evidence has presented itself to warrant a continued close watch. For one, the size of the system is likely to be massive. And credit to my colleague for reminding me that December 1992’s big storm was very similar.

        1. Was that the one that had an incredible amount of precipitation, perhaps up to 2 inches of rain on the front end and about 12-18 inches of wet snow during the second half of the storm ???

          1. Sure sounds like it Tom. I remember that one.
            It was boundary layer issues near the coast. Didn’t change over until the wind shifted more to the North. Inland areas got pasted.

            1. I was up in Lowell at the time…… Was up in Nashua NH at the Pheasant Lane Mall and when we came out, the rain had transitioned to heavy snow. By the time I got home in Lowell, it was still raining and I thought, oh well !! Then, woke up 8 hrs later and there was a ton of wet snow.

        2. Wankum not buying it. Projected temps this week mid 40s and not to go below 32 at night. 50s next Saturday. Cape to feel the brunt with the wind.

          1. You want to believe Wankum? Are you serious???

            Barry didn’t say it. IN fact Barry appears to be worried big time. 😀

            1. I’m not a Barry fan sorry. I believe channel 5 is the best weather team on the air today. I hope it works out for you Oldsalty I’m just rooting against like many here and not here. We had a winter this year and now It’s winding down. Could it snow, sure can but most people don’t want it now. Now is like say mid September It’s still summer but most people waiting to turn the corner on fall because its so close. Same here as March still winter but everybody ready to move forward after a long winter. It will get dark next Sunday at like 6:30.

    2. Tk,

      IF it makes the turn up the coast, would this then make it possible
      for it to be more intense than depicted by models pushing it due East?
      Could possibly Tap the Gulf stream longer.
      My gut says yes. Thoughts? Many thanks

      1. I don’t think we’d be looking at a complete turn. As far as the blocking goes, it’s weak enough for a slightly more northward shift to the still mostly eastward track, but that combined with the enormity of the system may be enough to throw significant precip in here and even a few inches of heavy, wet snow along with the kind of wind it would produce would cause tree and power line damage on a fairly significant scale, along with coastal flooding issues.

                3. Good idea, my wife wont mind if I borrow the hairdryer. Maybe a few toaster ovens, anything !!!

              2. i will be putting all my fans 10 of them. and ac units 3 to push it towards us. Sorry i want to be able have good conditions through at least middle of march. past few years the seasons been cut short. even the 2011 season. sometimes March can be some of the best skiing .. Longer days and temperatures just below freezing. with mountain snows forming. its always fun time. it just has not happened the past few years.

      1. much better O.S.

        That tilt has been pretty much positive thus far slinging the storm ots like a pendulum

        2. I hope it keeps going that way, right out to the fish. Most people now thinking about spring and do not want snow, including myself.

          1. John, exactly. This time of year can be mean.
            Just when we WANT SPRING, we get clobbered
            with snow.

            1. I agree with that. We have been lucky that March and April have not produced snow. I know and agree that it can snow in April. But as we hit March most people starting to think ahead of better weather moving forward, as I said me included.

  39. I don’t need to remind anybody that some of our greatest (most powerful) storms have occurred in March and April, on BOTH sides of the Equinox.

    1. I would be surprised if I am the only one who doesn’t perk up with a few of the comments you’ve made this evening TK. I know nothing is written in stone but when you watch I think we all listen

        1. Not too sure but I think whatever happens will be minor compared to Feb 8-9 and recover will be quick, unless we have enough wet snow combined with strong wind (not a certainty but again cannot rule this out just yet).

          1. Thanks TK. My best advice to them was to put it out of their minds for now as it will be on again off again and just create anxiety.

  41. It had seemed that Feb.&March had just shut off on the snow for the past few years. Even 2010/2011 snow was over by 1st week of Feb. Will 2013 be different ?? We will see .

  42. I’ve been model hugging so badly today I forgot to mention we’re up to near 1/2″ of snow right now.

  43. i will have all 12 of my fans and AC systems pushing it towards us. This storm actually has some potential 😀

    1. Sorry, but I’ve had a fleet of swamp boats sent up from the bayou and I’ll be aiming those fans to push this baby out to sea.

      1. everyone seems excited for the first two storms then poof everyones excitment about systems go poof. like others have said feb and march are some of the stormiest parts of the year do to temperature fluctuations. One big storm this year and everyone is oh no not another one. I rather have snow than rain. rain will go and cause flooding because the plant life is not sucking up water yet. snow melts more gradually and alot of it evaporates into the atmosphere which means less flooding. Also means longer ski season. and i rather just have snow on top of the cruddy march ground. I guess i will need more fans and ac units. i borrow my my neibors with out telling them what for. 😛

        1. Matt I always feel excitement but I think the problem is that the storms have moved from noreasters to devastating storms. Even I am on edge and I’ve always been excited about anything mom nature sends our way

          1. but we can not think that every storm is going to be devestating like super storm sandy. we need to but those behind and remember that this is new england and we can handle them.

            1. As long as they are not you are 100% correct. This one looks rather monstrous so ill wait and see and be a little excited while I do so 🙂

  44. Whatever we get, what is the time table for this to start? I have a friend flying out of Logan Thursday.

    1. umm it could start wednesday night/thursday morning . ending thursday night or early friday. if it effects us.

  45. Barry may be concerned, but he’s not saying anything yet.
    So far he’s not buying it. He’s clinging to the Euro. 😀

    1. im just hoping for it to happen not on board for it either. i want to see alot more before i would say anything.

  47. Part of the thing about devastating storms now versus before. We have more people, more cameras, more coverage, more crews, more competition, all going to find the couple spots with the worst damage and then making it seem like it’s like that everywhere. Most of these storms are not producing any more widespread damage than before. And most of them, area-wise, don’t measure up to storms like Hurricane Bob, the 1978 Blizzard, and the classic hurricanes in 1938 and the 1950s. What about Carol and Edna? Back to back storms making most of our biggies, including the recent blizzard, look like nothing in comparison.

    2. I don’t know TK. I’d say with or without the media there was a lot of damage with the last several storms. I actually thought the media didnt do justice to the devastation on the coast for feb 9. And even without media coverage or less people, everyone knew 1938 or the Worcester tornado or even 78 were devastating. And look how far apart they were. We’ve had Irene, 2 Halloweens, sandy, feb 9 in a blink. And in between we rise to unusual warmth. We will see what happens but as I said before my guess is we will wait too long before we figure Out as matt wisely said – maybe some normal but maybe some manmade. We have a history of doing that.

      1. What seems the oddest to me is that global warming or whatever one wants to call it is divided for the most part down party lines. Darnedest thing I’ve ever heard of

          1. I didnt mean yours. That’s why I said for the most part. And oddly that’s true. I’m not a fan of either party either.

            1. rather go democrate as some on my facebook page has seen 😉 but i would like a more middle aproach to things

  48. B’s sort of look OK tonight. They’re ahead 3-2 though maybe not playing their best. Plenty of bad blood in the game.

  49. My fan is the original and strongest in the sea 🙂

    Car shopping so been busy. I see gfs is teasing us 🙂

  51. Car shopping Hadi, huh. That’s never any fun. Was wondering where you were today.

    My take on NAM

    -low is stronger
    -high to the north is a little weaker and a shade further to the north
    -trough is sharper

    on to GFS

    1. Never fun 🙂 but Costco pricing takes out the hassle. Looking at other the Highlander or Rav 4.

  53. I think the NAM this far out is hinting at a more northern track. Nam won’t be any good until tomorrow 00z runs or early tuesday morning. If the 00z gfs shows a similar solution as 18z then we have the beginning of a trend.

  55. It also looks like starting this weekend nighttime lows r tough to get below freezing night after night,, we r getting close to winter being done, sun angle is the same as late Sept early Oct, won’t be long now, there’s even a chance winter is already over, will c 🙂

  57. Was at UMass Loweel today for my daughter’s volleyball tournament. Didn’t you go there TK and Matt aren’t you going now?

    3. Yes, before it was UMass Lowell. I think they changed 1 or 2 years after I graduated. 🙂

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