The Week Ahead

734 Comments

10:39PM

A big cool pool in the atmosphere centered just east of New England will spin spokes of moisture into the region Monday and Tuesday, then shuffle eastward as a large storm born of energy heading across the Ohio Valley strengthens and grows along the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday and heads eastward through Thursday into the waters off the East Coast, southeast of New England. Though the track of this storm has appeared that it will be too far south to have a strong impact on southern New England, there have been a few signs that it will be close enough, and many signs that it will be large enough to impact the region with a moderate to strong east wind, large ocean swells and big waves along the coast, and at least some threat of precipitation between late Wednesday and early Friday. This system will have a much bigger impact on the Mid Atlantic with some significant and major snow.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Snow showers taper off, clouds break. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s northwest to southeast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds dominate, episodes of snow to rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few additional rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind N to NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Low 33. High 43.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 41.

734 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Big time Mark. That’s a sweet looking snowstorm. Gonna see what qpf is. betting over 1.5″ easy.

    1. Well, you saved me time. There it is.

      With the subtle changes in our favor with the NAM too I’d say its on the table now.

      What the hell is the Euro gonna do with this.

  7. Low is not too far off the benchmark! It made the turn all right. Good call TK! (assuming this verifies 🙂 )

  9. Wow TK. You really called this shift.

    That precip field is huge! Hype machine will start tomorrow morning for sure!

    ….and then we will end with all rain in Boston. Haha.

  14. Retrac,

    I think its almost 3″ of liquid up to Boston. But according to the gfs the snow will probably be a more wet and heavy snow and dealing with some rain at the beginning of the storm. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    1. Almost that much precip. to Boston. At that point 2.5 – 3.0 is a lot no matter what. Just dug deeper into the GFS. Snow right to the coast (except cape). And a lot of it.

  16. Tk,

    Are you hovering over the Panic button yet?? HAHA.. should be fun to watch. Well if the Euro jumps on board or even begins to move north a little more we should really be on guard.

    1. I am concerned with the size of the system, which if still passing well outside the benchmark, can not only deliver significant precipitation but very large ocean swells and waves. Not saying devastating storm but the potential for a very significant one is on the rise. No hype here, just think it’s important to keep in mind what the potential is with it.

    1. Timing (currently) is Wednesday night / Thursday.

      Not calling for a huge snowstorm at this point.

      Too many variable still in place regarding precipitation type and intensity and even if we get into the heaviest shield of precipitation. At this early stage I’m more concerned for impact from ocean waves along the coast than I am rain or snow.

  18. 0z UKMET has shifted north from its 12z run as well though still not a hit for SNE like the GFS.

    1. Only Barry. He didn’t commit to a hit and he shouldn’t. 3+ days out it’s still in watch mode.

  20. Wankum and Chris Lambert both mentioned how close the storm will be and that it needs to be watched. They are still calling for an OTS solution but said we will have high waves and 30-40mph winds along the coast regardless of if it hits or not.

  21. Thanks TK for the replies.

    Hopefully it won’t be to bad on the shores. I would like to have one more snow storm but I don’t like the beach erosion and flooding that comes along with it.

  22. 0z Canadian has the low meandering along the NC/VA border and then pretty much tracking due east out into the ocean. The northern fringe of the precip. shield brushes long island, the south coast of New England, and Nantucket, but is pretty much a miss.

    Captain, I did not catch any of the newscasts but so far, the GFS is the only 0z model run I have seen that is a direct hit for SNE. UKMET, Canadian, and NAM are close shaves but misses. We’ll see what the 0z FIM and Euro have to say.

    Definitely appears we have a northward trend in progress, but if at the end of the night the GFS is the only model depicting a hit, I’m not going to get too excited….yet.

  23. Thx TK, TJ and Mark – not sure I will remain awake for the 0z Euro, but curious where it places that low.

  27. Another post from DT at wxrisk. LOL.

    **** ALERT ** ANOTHER MODEL SAYS THEN GFS IS FULL OF OF CRAP

    0z MARCH 4 run of the BRITISH Model is way south .. as far south as the last 12 runs of the European and new run of the Canadian

  29. EURO holds its ground and GFS looks to hold its ground. Who will be right. This to me is like what happened with Debby when the GFS had the right idea all along bringing Debby into Florida while the EURO kept insisting a landfall in the western part of the Gulf. The EURO eventually came around two to three days prior to Debby making landfall.
    My gut this is a grazing in terms of rain and snow. Biggest threat no matter where this tracks will be wind and wave action.

  31. 6z NAM is a miss but close. The circulation with the low is the big so I would not be surprised if we get a grazing of rain and snow with that.

    1. Not sure if I’m reading that Boston correct but that is showing mostly rain/ mix. I think.

    1. I read it wrong as I stated. Still learning the maps. No one though is talking snow just here.

      1. Models just starting to waiver a bit. Smart of local (tv) mets to keep quiet about it.

        I hear ya, late winter snow is the worst! Unfortunately it can be a harsh reality here on SNE some years.

  35. John,

    IF the storm gets this close to Boston we would have a rain/snow mix for the beginning but once the heavier precip comes in it should flip to a heavy wet snow.

    Also the Euro seems to be trying to figure out exactly where the block is going to be and it has been changing its track slightly each run. The latest 00z Euro keeps it south but has a little more of a grazing than before and also has the storm traveling almost due east from mid atlantic. I know we will see the Euro trend north in the next couple of runs.

    1. Wow. Just about a foot for most in eastern MA, exception of the cape. GFS on crack? We’ll see!

  38. i want to see more models head to the gfs thinking before i totally jump on board with this. what ever happens .. seas and wind will increase. i want to see the other models start to agree by tonight or early tomorrow.
    right now i would say a mix of rain and snow showers for the cape and islands.

  39. My son in Chicago is finally going to get a fairly decent amount, along with the heaviest storm total this season from the early stages of this eventual east coast storm. The area is already under a WS Warning for 5-10”. He’s all excited – the true New Englander he is! 🙂

  40. GFS the only model showing this storm coming up and getting us while the other models take the storm south of us.
    I think the GFS trends south with the other models. I hope I am wrong but the blocking high looks to be just strong enough to keep this storm system from turning up the coast and getting us. This will be a close call and any slight shift north could make a big difference.

    1. A few, like the UKMET, have started a northward trend. Maybe they meet in the middle somewhere!

  41. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like another interesting week weather-wise. Well, even if we get a lot of snow, it shouldn’t hang around too long at this time of year. Biggest concern I guess is the impact the storm could have along the coast. Won’t be pretty here either if we get a lot of snow – likely to be a heavy, wet snow. Looking forward to spring – I have had enough of winter for this year! 🙂

      1. Hi, Vicki – thanks for asking. We went to the dr. but there was a paperwork issue that will be solved tomorrow, when our primary care dr. is back from vacation.

  42. JR called for some snow showers with some rain mix too on Wed night and through day Thursday because the system (which he believes will go south) is so large.

    1. Yes Vicki same on 5. I am only hearing all the snow talk here. Tv mets may be playing it safe and saying it needs watching but all saying it should no affect us snow wise., wind, high surf. I hope there right.

      1. I had the same thoughts john – we will see – maybe management has finally given them the reins to forecast their way and not the management’s ratings way…….we can only hope

  43. It appears that little trend north that I thought would happen 24/36hrs ago is now happening

    1. Am I reading correctly that this is for 3/9?? JR had it 50 degrees on Saturday. I have to be missing something.

      2. Looks like most mets are. Like I said the only snow talk is here, especially no amounts were put out. Mets havi it passing just south.

  45. I think the nam will trend a little closer and the gfs will trend slightly away and will drop some light snow south and east of Boston, this will not be a big event, it will be a big storm just not here there is at least that consensus, gfs is overdone IMO

    1. I agree. Let’s see how future runs look before people start talking big storm. To be honest I could care less.

          1. Is the SREF a stand alone model? I thought it
            was some sort of special blend of the GFS and the NAM???

            If it is some sort of blend, then not surprised.
            If it is a stand alone model, then it is clearly
            more confirmation.

            Not sure. Anyone know? thanks

            1. Overview
              The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). Output is available at 3h intervals through 87 hours. The SPC ensemble post-processing focuses on diagnostics relevant to the prediction of SPC mission-critical high-impact, mesoscale weather including: thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, large scale critical fire weather conditions, and mesoscale areas of hazardous winter weather.

  47. Retrac and I were monitoring this thing ALL weekend long searching for that
    first sign of a change and we FOUND it yesterday. There are several signs that
    this could end up a BIG event. ALL signs, by no means. Sure would like to get
    the Euro and CMC on board. Currently NOT on board, which means this could end
    up as nothing more than some wind along the coast.

    Just too early to know for certain, but this HAS to be monitored as it “could” end up
    being a devastating/damaging event.

    1. Too early to know but the fun of it is to watch the different scenarios. I really enjoyed watching you both monitor it and discuss what you were seeing. Thank you!

  51. One thing is for sure we will be dealing with wind no matter what the track of this low takes.
    I still think the GFS trends a little further south and this will be a very close call for us but when all is said and done will be on the northern fringe of this system. Areas west of D.C. could get a good dumping of snow from this event.

  55. A trend I am seeing in the NAM, block is weaker like the GFS has been showing. This has a real chance IMHO. At hour 72 we are getting into heavy precip.

  56. I just went back and looked and your right its pretty close to the 6z run. On to the GFS. It is one large system and to me even if does track south I could see some areas of SNE getting rain and snow showers out of this.

  64. So NAM/GFS has us in on (some of) the action. Let’s see how the trend continues. Next 24 hour-36 hours will paint a much clearer picture!

  65. Hi Guys,

    Just got back at my computer – hectic morning on the road.

    Looks like it’s still on the table. Looking forward to GFS.

    We might just squeak one more out after all. The Euro concerns me still.

    1. Retrac,

      Indeed, we would like to see the Euro on board.
      The fact that it isn’t could spell an OTS scenario still.

      It’s NEVER simple, is it?

      I think our local Mets have aged 10 years during this Winter. 😀

  66. I don’t know if anyone is familiar with the old joke about “Your Grand Mother is on the roof”…but this smells like that.

    No,No,No,No….”Maybe”, “Maybe”,”Maybe”, YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. I meant to say when all is said and done I think its a grazing and that the block is just strong enough from turning this up
      the coast and nailing us. I hope I am wrong.
      Right now wind and wave action are what I am concerned about the most.

    1. Totally agree.

      Of course by the 00z runs the “trends” could trend in a totally opposite direction!

      We’ll see!

  70. Just peeked at some SREF ensemble probabilities from the 3z run and here’s the scoop:

    -55-60% chance of .50 qpf or greater from Worcester on east.

    -Same percentages for 1.00″ qpf or better restricted to SE Mass.

    -45% chance of 1/2 mile or less visibilities most of eastern Mass.

    -Insignificant percentages for less than 1/4 mile or less visibilities.

      1. Sorry, that didn’t work. Not sure I can link the loop.
        That address above will get you to the site. 😀

  74. I would feel a lot better if the EURO jumps on board. Will see what this run of the GFS says. Tonight’s 0z run and tomorrow’s 12z runs will be very important.

    1. Flawed GFS?

      Well the folks at Wxrisk.com think that this system is ONLY a mid-Atlantic
      event and it stays South of our area.

      Who to believe? What to believe? Ah, so much fun. 😀

        2. No one here is predicting a storm. They are describing the model data per output. Big difference!

  77. In my haste I was looking at the 12z NAM so of course it looks like the NAM! What a dumb **S I can be sometimes.

    Ok, to the GFS now fo real.

    And I was sitting here thinking, wow, that got to hr. 84 fast! 🙂

  79. NWS NOT buying the GFS solution:

    .SYNOPSIS…
    THE BRUNT OF A STRONG MID ATLANTIC STORM WILL LIKELY MISS
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY…BUT STILL
    WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

    1. Ditto from Upton NWS office:

      THE 04/00Z GFS CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS…HOWEVER
      THE 04/00Z ECMWF…WHICH HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL
      LATELY…KEEPS THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
      REGION. THEREFORE…HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
      FORECAST. WONT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT

      They are hanging in with the Euro and discounted anything else, which of course may be 100% correct. We shall see. 😀

    2. Not sure I get their thinking on this.

      Should definitely not be calling for a hit, but to say it will “likely miss”?

      I don’t know.

  81. Wxrisk really hates the GFS….I’m not a fan at all but the Euro isn’t perfect either. Wait and see.

    If mother nature is going to give us a big storm she will do!! Nothing we can do but hang on for the ride.

  88. This 12Z GFS run is WARMER and introduces serious boundary layer issues
    and keeps the snow confined to inland areas. IT even brings the 850mb 0C lines
    all the way up to or just past Boston.

    3. Personally, I don’t see the 0C line getting that far North AND I don’t see
      the boundary layer issues for the Boston area. We shall see.

      This looks like a MEGA storm with SERIOUS and dangerous impacts.

  91. 00z, 12z hits. That’s important IMHO.

    The biggest thing I noticed, and it’s subtle, but the LOW to the east relaxes a little sooner than 6z.

    The High to the north relaxes a bit as well.

    Major model errors?

          1. See below.

            Experience mostly.

            I don’t see anything but SNOW for Boston.
            And the HEAVY WET variety at that. 😀

      1. Vicki,

        Combination of possibly stronger winds or at least as strong with HEAVY wet snow. That combo is deadly. Much worse than dry snow with wind.

        Only my thoughts for what it is worth. AND it may last for a fairly long time, adding to the area’s woes.

        1. Thank you – can I assume since coast had the heavy wet snow and wind for Feb 9 – you are thinking this will move more inland this time around? Or do you mean heavy wet snow and wind on top of already battered coast will make it doubly devastating. OR (I know I have lots of questions today) are these winds to be even higher than Feb 9. I know they were up on 60s along the coast then.

          Did that make any sense??

  98. TK, SO curious as to what you’re thinking about these past two GFS/NAM runs.

    We need the maestro to chime in and bring us down to earth!

  99. I just don’t see this being a rain storm with a decent high in position. Based on that track etc.. maybe starting as rain and boom turns into snow.

    1. No – GFS has a general 10-18″ just south and north of the Pike all the way to Worcester. Big snowstorm if it happens. Would be a great way to close out the winter.

    1. Hadi, thanks.

      Great Map.

      Is it based ONLY on the 12Z GFS? OR is anything else factored in?

      Curious.

  103. Very different look to that map vs. the instant weather map. If GFS is correct this is a major snow storm for most.

    2. Absolutely NOT.

      This would be a mess to say the least. “Could” result in MAJOR
      power outages.

  105. In haven’t had a tweet from Margusity in a while. Can you imagine the fretting at Accuweather Funny thing is, after he tweeted yesterday that “this is not a New England Snowstorm”, the 18z GFS came out.

    I hope he doesn’t waste money on lottery tickets.

    I said I was going to give this until 12z today since last week. Well, looks like I might have to stick my neck out now. I give it a 60% strike probability now of 6″ or more Worcester and east.

    1. The instant maps are ok but not as detailed TJ. Hadi’s map is dead on with what I saw on Accupro too.

  109. Again remember with the 00z runs the data is being sampled much better. I will say that I think the EURO will come north for sure, probably not as much as GFS but more than the NAM.

  111. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan

    Blizzard Warning MT & ND with this storm, wonder if we see same PHL to BOS, odds are 50/50 IMHO

  114. ugghhhh – Back to work for a bit.

    Will the GFS triumph for once or will the King have no clothes on?

  116. Come on EURO !!! Stay South !! You guys are killing me 🙂 🙂 with your enthusiasm over a possible hit !! LOL !!

    1. hehe. We’re CRAZY for snow.

      I will say, I’m not currently crazy for it. I’m more of a Dec/Jan snow storm fan.

      1. i do not want snow after march 30th. april is when we get the yard ready for the months of summer. and by may 7th we usually have our pool open with the solor cover over it so it heats up

  117. Henry, 4 hours ago:

    Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
    What I am trying to figure out this morning is if the GFS is right in bringing snow north into NYC and Boston.

  118. GFS MAYBE on to something here. It shows 6 7 inch snowfall from my area in CT. I thought the block was going to be stronger and all we would feel is wind and big waves and a grazing.
    Thanks to all of you who post these links. I don’t like several inches of heavy wet snow because heavy wet snow equals power outages and snow that is tough to move.

  119. Not for nothing, but the GFS has shown a hit for 4 consecutive runs, starting with
    the 18Z yesterday:

    3/2 18Z
    3/3 0Z
    3/3 06Z
    3/3 12Z

    THAT, my friends, MEANS Something.

    What? Who knows. 😀

  120. It consistent but the EURO has been pretty consistent as well. As I said earlier this reminds me of Debby last year when the GFS had the right idea all along bringing Debby into Florida while the EURO kept insisting on landfall in the western part of the Gulf. Two to three days prior to Debby making landfall in Florida the EURO came around to the GFS.
    Will see if the same holds true with this storm or will the GFS come over to the EURO side like it did with Sandy.

    1. Yes, that is the Zillion dollar question.

      I hate it when this happens. Why can’t we have some model agreement?

      1. The only things we know for sure are the winds will be gusting and some good wave action with this storm system.
        At the very least I think we get grazed however this could be a bigger deal especially if the current run of the GFS
        pans out.

    2. I remember you saying that before, JJ – do you remember what storm it was for and which model ended up “winning out” and which model was correct with the last “storm” – wasn’t it the GFS that time?

      2. The GFS was right the last time. The GFS is right sometimes and it is tough to ignore its consistency with this current
        storm system. With that said it is tough to ignore how consistent the EURO has been with this storm system.
        I think this could be a situation where the difference is split and the low comes out between where the GFS and EURO
        have it.

        1. Thanks OS and JJ – I thought that was the case but then of course confused myself. I love days like this on the blog. I know it’s frustrating for everyone here but to me it is absolutely fascinating – weather predicting at its very best with everyone collaborating/discussing.

  122. OK, this is REALLY getting interesting.

    Here is the 12Z CMC Regular (only goes out to 48 hours).

    Looks like the system want to emerge on the coast near the Delmarva.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    This is the 500mb chart at 48 hours. Notice the so called FAKE feature in NY?
    Well, not looking so fake now. This “should” allow more of a turn to the North.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Here is the 250mb chart at 48 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=UV250&hh=048&map=na&stn2=UV250&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  123. The mets are waiting for EURO before putting out any maps.

    I think DT has been banking on this being only a Mid Atlantic storm and still could be the case, but based on his FB page he is not buying the GFS or NAM to an extent. HIs eggs are all in the EURO.

  124. EURO for the last two storms has been wrong within a couple days, but overall it’s clearly superior.

  125. GFS really just stalls the system. Bad news for coastal areas as tides I believe are astronomically high.

  128. Ok – so yesterday the GFS was the outlier, are most models trending north save the Euro? Would that make the king the outlier if stays the course at 12z?

  129. I wonder if anyone is almost ready to hit the panic button. These are big shifts in the models, guys.

  131. I would have to see the UKMET precip maps. Just looking at track and a comparison of the 0z and 12z run, it does not look to me like a big shift north. Certainly nothing like the GFS is showing.

  132. Check out this really cool site showing real time wind direction and speeds across the country. If you move your cursor around the map, you can get the actually wind speed/direction at a certain point and also zoom in on regions around the country.

    http://hint.fm/wind/

      1. Not working for me now either, though it was a few minutes ago. Try back a bit later, it’s pretty cool!

  134. Watched Melissa on BZ at noon and she deferred to the 12Z Euro.

    Personally I am really not sure the Euro will give us an answer. If blocking is getting a little less intense the models in general may not “know” for a couple of runs how the blocking is really going to go. If the Euro shows consistency for next 2-3 runs, be it OTS or heading north, then we might be able to come to some early conclusions.

    I am not a real fan of calling shots off a single run of any model even if the Euro takes a shift north.

    1. Agreed – at this point given the model divergence discussions should be probability vs. absolute unless there is meterological basis to throw one or more out.

    2. Ch 5 is favoring a brush but said it needed watching – that would also be favoring euro correct?

  135. From DT of wxrisk on Facebook in response to someone saying that the Euro will come north and cave to the GFS. This guy is really an a-hole!!

    “pay attention STUPID… You are counting on the Model that last friday Morning showed NO storm NO snow … that on saturday did not have any snow in DCA or MD… beating out the euro which has shown the same thing for 16 + straight models runs — 8 days and the euro ensembles…

    we saw this with sandy. The GFS WAS WRONG
    wie saw this with the snwostorm 5 days after sandy which the GFS missed
    we saw this with the New England FEB 8 blizzard which the GFS NEVER saw until 72 hrs out

    we saw this with the New England Blizzard which the GFS totally under forecasted snow amounts

    we saw this with issac last year that the GFS took up th coast for 20 straight runs… while the Euero showed New orelans for 9 days in a row

    yeah dude you might be right”

    Not to mention, he can’t write either!

  136. He might be right, but he has been calling for no snow north of Washington so I think he is just getting frustrated with a north trend.

  138. Joe Joyce on DT’s page:

    Joe Joyce I agree. Sadly DT, it appears you may be trying to mislead a bit here. The 12 Z Canadian crushes Southern new England on THURSDAY with a foot or more of snow, strong winds and coastal flooding. I hope the Euro holds strong…but really beginning to wonder here.

      1. Except if it’s wet, heavy, hard to move, and it knocks out your power!

        I hear ya, though. I have several friends from Syracuse and Ottawa. They laugh at us.

      2. A foot or more is what is concerning. Don’t forget it’s not light and fluffy it’s heavy and wet.

  143. We all know that the “sweet spot” for a low pressure area is the 40/70 benchmark, but what is the “sweet spot” exactly for a high pressure area to the north enough to make it cold enough to support snow for SNE but not in a position to force a storm OTS? I assume in general a position from Quebec to the Maritimes but is there a precise long/lat “benchmark” to the north so to speak?

  144. JR is sticking with the Euro – he has the high staying strong and winds and high tides and maybe a bit of snow/rain here but that’s it. Didn’t mention keeping an eye as 4 and 5 are saying.

    1. Someone commented that the euro will not a big shift from a previous run but will show a trend.

  147. From Americanwx:

    12z Euro ends up 50-75 miles NW of 00z…some very noticeable trends aloft…but not there yet. No accumulated precipitation north of Sandy Hook through 60 hrs.

  149. I could see the low in between where the GFS has it right now and where the EURO has it.

  150. The old, wise EURO is much like your wise 92 year old grandfather. Stubborn, but he’ll eventually come around. But remember, he’s rarely wrong!

  151. Euro usually doesn’t jump big either way it’s a slow progression. I think it’s clearly trending closer just how close is not sure yet.

    1. Hadi – am I also correct that the Euro did move to agreement with the last storm here? If so, did it do so gradually also?

  152. I am reading the Euro has definitely taken a big step towards the GFS but not quite there yet. 0.25-0.5″ QPF makes it up to Sandy Hook, Nj, NYC and Long island.

  153. CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather

    euro now has basically an inch of precip (liquid melted equivalent) on the Cape after having virtually none for days.

  154. It’s as much as a 100 mile shift north of the Euro from what I am reading. The shortwave in Upstate NY that has been appearing on the GFS model is now showing up on the Euro and has its own closed height contour at 54 hours. A definite step towards the GFS.

    Wonder what DT is saying now?

    1. He’s probably preparing his defensive speech.

      Seriously, how does this guy have so many fans?

  156. Feel like everyone is keeping it closer to the vest after the last storm trended downward, hopefully they do not swing to far in the other direction on communicating the potential of this storm. NWS tweet: @NWSBoston: Models trended a bit further NW with Wed/Thu storm. Still favoring more of a glancing blow to #SNEwx. Low probability of a larger impact.

  157. And here is DT’s response to the 12z Euro….LMAO!

    Wxrisk.com
    ‎**** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH…***

    keep dreaming NYC and CT

  158. Does DT work for the NWS in Taunton?

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston:
    Models trended a bit further NW with Wed/Thu storm. Still favoring more of a glancing blow to #SNEwx. Low probability of a larger impact.

  159. QPF from EURO has close to .50 for Boston from nearly nothing before.

    EURO is seeing things the GFS is seeing like that impulse that Mark eluded to. IMHO it will come around very soon.

        1. That’s up to 2.5″ QPF in Boston….pretty much in line with the GFS. Even delivers 1.5-2″ here in eastern CT. 🙂

  161. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston

    Some rain and/or wet snow is possible late Wed into Fri. Low probability of significant amounts if storm trends further north. #SNEwx

  162. It’s crazy that all GFS members show a direct hit, that should offer more confidence in the op run

  163. All models are now a hit to varying degrees.

    The GFS operational has been consistent 4 runs in a row now and has 100% support from its ensembles while the Euro has been making significant adjustments northward in the past several runs, as have the other models. I cannot see why so many are continue to hug the Euro when it has performed so inconsistently with this storm. The NWS Boston tweet is incomprensible to me.

    1. Mark, I agree with you 100%.

      I don’t get those guys at the Taunton NWS. Not at all. 😀

      1. It’s fair to say they are still favoring a glancing blow but to say low probability of a significant impact is very misleading when looking at the trends taking place. They should be putting people on alert/guard here for something potentially bigger.

  164. Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry

    New ECMWF shifts north with the precip too. Has snow in NYC and Boston.

  165. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    Gonna need another 24 hours of weather data before we can confidently predict what will happen Wed Night/Thursday…

    1. Note: this model gives Eastern MA MORE qpf than down there in the Mid-Atlantic. With all of the previous hype, wouldn’t that be something. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Wow, look at how far north the low is. That would be a pasting blizzard with heavy wet snow and widespread power outages.

      But don’t worry anyone…..low probability of a significant impact 😉

  167. Tim Kelley Tweet, one hour ago:

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan
    @sm772010 60 hrs wind whipped coastal rain, inland snow. May be 10″+ snow, more in hills. Coastal gusts 60+. Major erosion, 7p Weds-7a Sat

  168. Starting to get excited……

    Busy bee today – can’t wait to chime in later peeps. Keep it coming in the meantime!

  169. 12z Euro precip totals:

    LGA: .45″
    JFK: .53″
    ISP: .66″
    BOS: .70″
    PHL: .63″
    ACY: .95″
    DCA: 1.21

  171. Even early on last week when the storm was first on the models, Pete was not comfortable at all with the OTS solution that other mets were touting. At the time, he had no choice, but he still insisted it bared watching throughout until it was safely OTS and gone. He hinted that history has winter storms off the Mid-Atlantic eventually hitting SNE in the long run.

    It will be very interesting what Pete has to say later today…. 🙂

  172. Now let’s hope we don’t get temp issues 🙂 on the coast. I think with the high as positioned and with current track everyone should be ok except Cape

    1. That would be the kicker wouldn’t? With all of the OTS talk, we finally
      get it to turn up the coast and then to have it RAIN!(@#*()&!)@*(#&*(!@&#*&!@*(#&*(!&@#*(&!(*@#*!&@(*#&!*(&@#*(!&@*#&(!*&@#*(!&@*(#&!*(@#&*(!&@(*#&!(*@&#*(!&@#*!*(@#&(*!&@#*(&!(*@#&!&@#(*

      That’s probably exactly what will happen. Retrac will get 30 inches and Boston will Rain. 😀 😀 😀

      Hope not, but I’m afraid it “could” be in play.

        1. Hadi,
          I’m with you. Right now I am in the snow camp, just going
          on climate history and my experience over the years.

          However, the rain scenario cannot be ruled out and is
          a possibility. Can’t bury our heads in the sand and deny that. You know, Denial is a River in Egypt. 😀

  173. Even if snow become a tricky forecast for the coast, the wind and beach erosion is going to be a serious issue.

  175. NWS Upton has updated their HWO as of 2PM. Stronger wording and concern by them compared to their counterparts in Taunton:

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

    FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS STORM
    WILL EVOLVE…BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:

    * SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
    * WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
    * MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
    * HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING
    BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

    THESE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  176. To add to that with this being a heavy wet snow areas that see several inches of that were going to have to start talking about power outages. I am leaning away from the grazing I was thinking last night and earlier today.

  177. Is the indecision for only along the coast or is it now looking more like a snow event in either eastern or all of MA?

    1. Vicki,

      You are more likely to see snow if the storm materializes as it appears now.
      In Boston and along the coast, it could go either way or both. 😀

      Hadi and I are leaning towards snow right now. Always subject to change.

      This is really getting interesting. 😀

  178. TK. Do u go by email address or IP address. My router is getting switched out so ill have a new IP and am not sure woods hill will recognize me

      1. Thanks WW. It dawned on me IP address can’t be determining factor since I have various IPs in my phone. Too much happening here at once I think 🙂

  179. Coastal I do not see it being all rain. Let’s wait and see before saying rain vs. snow. Track and qpf is more important right now.

  180. BTW i was incorrect in mentioning earlier that tides are astronomically high, in fact they are not.

    1. That will help with coastal flooding, however, still could be substantial beach erosion and who knows what else.

  181. Just peeked at the Euro.

    It’s a start in the right direction. Still need some NNW movement. There’s a ton of qpf plotted just to our south that we need to arc back in here.

    I’m looking forward to seeing which model the NAM starts to favor because it seems right down the middle of the GFS and Euro right now.

  184. The Euro, as a number of you said, trended north a little. For me it would be another 1-2 runs before I believe it’s got a handle on things. Also, I do not believe the Euro makes quick or erratic adjustments. It seems a little slower on the uptake than others when reacting to changes in conditions/patterns.

  186. Incredible pictures from Hokkaido (Northern Japan) as the snow continues to pile up.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21657589

    By the way, TK is definitely more of an expert than I on the precipitation deficit in Boston, so I respect his expert view on this, but I have seen a real dent in the deficit in recent weeks (months). The water level of the Charles is still low, but higher than it was a few months ago. I do not think the fire danger that was ever present last March in places like Bretton Woods, NH, will recur this March. Maybe I’m wrong about this. But my thinking is that the core of the country (mid section and just south and west of the midsection) is in a devastating drought, and one that will likely cause catastrophic losses in agriculture but also calamitous fires (provided the spell continues).

    1. Because I like to fish and the fishing is usually no good with high river water,
      I check the Charles River all of the time. Right now that river is extremely
      high. If you look in Boston or Cambridge, it does not give a good view due
      to the flood controls in place and dams up river.

      Check in Needham, Dedham and Natick for a good look.

      😀

      1. Old Salty – the same with the Sudbury River out this way. It is not extremely high but it is higher than I have seen it since December 2011 by a LOT

        Do you catch and release? I miss my fishing days A LOT

          1. I never caught anything fishing, though I enjoy the camaraderie of fishing with others. My wife caught a fish once during our honeymoon, we went deep sea fishing off of Bermuda. That is our family’s haul over the past 15+ years!

    2. It only takes about 1 week of dry/sunny weather to set up high fire danger, because topsoil dries out so quickly when there is no foliage on trees and bushes. And if that dryness comes along with some warm air, which takes the moisture out of the soil even more quickly, then it happens faster. You can have high fire danger in surplus precipitation conditions because the subsoil may be moist, but the topsoil can dry out just like that.

      1. Thanks, TK. I have noticed that topsoil in NE dries out very quickly. Certainly compared to Holland. I’m always amazed at how fast the ball fields and parks dry out after enormous rain storms. That does not happen in a place like Holland where the water just sits on top in puddles or there’s lots of mud much of the time.

    1. Man you must love snow with all those smiley faces. I am in the silent minority (maybe a majority by now) that says…block this thing. OTS baby! Between work and school, no more. I think it wll start trending out again tomorrow. Remember, it was OTS now a hit and given it’s 3+ days out it will flip again.

      1. You may be correct, but I think we are almost within 48 hours of this, no? I thought it was a Wed night – Thursday event?

      2. Starts Wednesday PM 😉

        I don’t think you’re in as much of a minority as you think. I get more amped up about the model watching and the idea of weather than I do with the actual event itself.

        I love the snow, but I abhor shoveling, walking, and doing anything but skiing in it.

      3. Actually I do. Even when I’m ready for Spring, like I am now,
        it still gets my juices flowing. Sorry, just the way I am wired.

      4. Winter is my favorite season and I love tracking snowstorms. By early April I am ready for spring and then look
        forward to tracking thunderstorms.

        1. no snow after april but please o 50s and 60s.. hate that area because its to chilly for swimming but to warm for skiing. limited times on the bike. just skip it and get to summer weather and thunderstorms. like tracking those as well as winter storms. 😀 then have summer weather last through septemember then fall colors in october . then snow starts in november and december and lasts through march 😀

  189. Something is coming even based on EURO, it’s really how bad. I think the 00z runs will be telling for sure

    1. I think OS’s comment is spot on ….. we are all wired to get excited for any event and Hadi’s is also correct that the tracking and the seeing it all come together – or not – is all part of it. I know I keep repeating that my mom used to say “anticipation is half the joy”……in the case of weather I think it may be more than half.

      Tom, I’m not deserting you and I absolutely do not want coastal damage and I’m not wishing for the storm but I can’t help but being excited……..oh I don’t want more roof leaks either and yet……………..maybe it is a miswiring but I like it!

    1. Yes, and 200mb winds are really beginning to dig. Closed circulation at
      300MB. All systems go.

  194. Doubt it shows what the GFS showed but will way better than previous run, granted it’s an 18Z run.

    Where is Arod? come out come out wherever you are

  196. Wachusett Mountain has tweeted a picture of snow (albeit light..) falling for a few days straight… if this storm verifies, they may stay open until after Easter.

    2. they can not stay open after easter. they have an agreement with the state park that keep them from doing so. its sort of like a rent. from novemember to easter. nothing past. people can still ski its just that it will be the old fashion climb up and go down

    1. NAM gets it up here, but goes NUTS with the 850mb oC line, yet the 1000-500mb thickness looks great, as does the 1000-850MB thickness. Hmmm
      Could this spell a Crapload of SLEET???????????????????

      It looks like it wants to sling a layer of warmth in at about 5,000 feet.

      We’ll see.

      QPF WAY WAY more than 0Z run.

        1. The Catskills of NY get Lambasted.
          As does areas of W. VA.

          Central MA get clobbered pretty well also.

          Notice the very sharp cutoff right near the coast.

          Sleet, mix OR rain????

          YUCK, what a mess.

          Ok now what do the mets do?

  199. If this stays all snow with the latest run of the NAM there would be a lot of areas with double digit snow totals of heavy wet snow. Of course its the NAM and the 18z run so we could shave off a few inches.

    1. Hadi, do you have the 18z nam snowfall map that had more detail in terms of snow amounts?

  201. The concerns of yesterday are becoming moreso, again mainly due to the size of the system and the likely expansiveness of its precip shield. There is still lots to be worked out here though.

    The 2 models that flunked out a good part of the winter have decided to lead the class all of a sudden, but how long can that go on for?

    2. What do you think the broadcast Mets do with this information now?

      Still play it cool and tell the public it’s going OTS?
      OR let the public know that something MAJOR “could” happen?

      What would you do?

      Thanks

      1. You play it smart. Briefly mention that 48 hours away there is still conflicting info, go a middle of the road scenario with room for adjustment. And most of all, you DON’T over hype. Stay calm.

        2. And most of all DO NOT put up any snow maps…not even those “potential” ones i.e. “mostly snow/rain/mix”, etc. Agreed TK? 😉

  202. nam is showing what my gut was thinking last week and a little stronger than what my gut was saying. when all the models were showing it going south, and some of you were questioning it 😛

  204. Danbury/Naugatuck WX ‏@danburyweather

    Final NAM snowfall map estimates: DC 4-8, PHL 7-11, NYC 8-12, SW CT 12-16, NE CT 15-20+, BOS near zero. #wxedge

    1. Could be Logan gets virtually nothing, while Western and Southwestern
      neighborhoods of the City get pasted with a foot of cement. 😀

  206. again snow vs. rain is not in my thinking right now, i am focusing on track and precip. Once we get close I am betting this is snow for most of the area.

    1. Well at least they are beginning to wake up. Sort of like bears stirring in the DEN just before awakening from hibernation. 😀

    1. I agree. What do you make of that CRAZY 850mb 0C line? It wiggles all
      over the place. I’m not buying it right now. Track and all of our experience
      does scream snow as you stated. But the atmosphere is full of tricks, so who
      knows. We’ll wait and see.

  209. @TerryWBZ gives less than a 1 in 3 chance of the American models are correct w/this storm

    2. Who is Terry? I have NEVER even seen him before.

      He wouldn’t even discuss the hype with Hadi on a previous storm.

      Not sure how much credibility we should afford him. 😀

      1. He’s a good forecaster but I think both he and Barry are in SOME error here going strictly with the Euro. The Euro has been poor on the last couple storms. It does this, and rides the bad side for a while. Doesn’t always mean the GFS nails it. I suspect neither of these models is on with this. Somewhere in between. The question is, how in between?

    1. 1 in 3, eh?

      I think there is about a 75% chance this thing nails us and the other
      25% would be a HEALTHY graze as in a moderate event.

      1 in 3 my *SS. 😀

  212. Hi everyone, I am sitting here at the UMASS LOWELL library trying to study but of course i cant with all this excitement. Now my biggest concern isn’t going to be if the storm is going to track north, the trends are looking good for this so far, however my concern is mixing issues, i smell a lot of sleet for boston, even northshore, i hope i am wrong, otherwise this will be a wasted good storm, atleast for boston. My concern now is mixing issues in boston, the high temperatures in boston is in the upper 30’s, perhaps even low snow ratio, what do you guys think? since this storm is huge and strong, wouldn’t make its own cold air?

    1. I would think dynamic cooling will play a major role in bringing snow for the coastline…not to mention basic climatology (early March).

  214. Looking back at most storms that originate in that location as the Delmarva I am betting 90% of them that track up this way end up being monster snow storms. I am in no way buying a rain storm. Add to it the blocking we have it should end up as a major storm.

  215. Chris on 7 has some snow in here but says it’s a question of how much. A switch from JR’s report at noon who had nothing here.

  216. I have a headache. 🙂

    Not that it matters, but I fully support everyone’s feelings of what they’d like to see happen and the biggest reason is the weather will do what it wants regardless of how we feel. 🙂 🙂

    In terms of real weather, the coastline cannot withstand a big pounding right now. The area is still too compromised, beaches eroded, etc, so, I hope this does not come to fruition.

    Just had a brief snowshower come through. 16 days to the equinox. 2 months, 26 days til we go from 40F to 85F. 🙂

    1. I agree 100%. Just doesn’t.
      IF it were to verify, as I said previously, I think it would mean a crap load
      of SLEET. 😀

    1. Btw folks, with very LOW snow ratios due to heavy wet snow, a 12 hour
      accumulation of 8 or 9 inches is humongous!! That would probably equate to
      something like 2-3 inches per hour with dry powdery snow. Thoughts?

  219. The SREF seems more plausible given the storm track, I like Hadi and O.S. just can’t see how the 850 line swings so far north and west given the track, colder ocean, heavy precip, high to the north?.?.?

  220. I am going on my April Break, so ……… Please let me know if this works for everyone.

    Coverage at my school for Tuesday, April 16 thru Friday, April 19. I will give you lesson plans. 120 kids, you can do it !!

    Tuesday 4/16 : Hadi

    Wednesday 4/17 : OS

    Thursday 4/18 : retrac

    Friday 4/19 : everyone else except for Vicki.

    Please verify if this storm pans out and school gets cancelled due to snow/power issues so I can turn in your names. Thanks. LOL !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Are you students ready for a class on differential equations as they relate to atmospheric physics? 😀

      2. Perfect, middle school math. 🙂 Hey, I’d be up for a review class on diffy Q, been probably 20 yrs since I took that class.

  221. GFS cranking up good. Looks like it’s going to throw a ton of heavier precip our way.
    This would make five (5) runs in a row.

    Of course one could argue that the Euro has had about 20 consecutive OTS runs. 😀

  223. 18Z GFS STILL indicating boundary layer issues for coast! STILL not buying it.
    We’ll see!

    1. I for one am banking on dynamic cooling and climatology to resolve any boundary layer issues.

  225. Tom trust me I have kids that are scheduled based on BPS so it kills me when school closes,not that i have to work later, but rather being out of work to take care of them 🙂

    1. Oh, I know. 🙂 I’m just trying to have some fun, so I dont lose my own sanity. The weather will do whatever it wants, no matter how we all feel about it. 🙂 🙂

      2. Tom I know there is nothing we can do about the weather and it’s fun to track and watch but in real life you have some very, very legitimate concerns – most of all the damage along the coast. My natural reaction is to be excited but as I said before if it were a run of the mill storm I would be. We are seeing the potential for another very destructive storm. As it stands even if we don’t get it the NJ coast is in its line and it certainly can’t handle anything more.

        I’m rambling again, aren’t I 😉

  226. 18z GFS still a big hit precip wise but it has taken a step backwards towards the Euro solution with respect to track. Track of low does not make it as far north as the 12z GFS. It makes it up to the latitude of about Cape May or Atlantic City and then heads due east. The heavy precip shield fanning out so far from the low center does not make sense to me which the NWS notes in their discussion.

    We shall see but I tend to think the models are going to meet somewhere in the middle at 0z. Euro ticking a bit further north and the GFS backing off a bit. Result = impacts everywhere in SNE but not to the extent that the GFS/NAM are predicting.

    1. I agree with that assessment. I was saying earlier today the low will probably track somewhere between the EURO and GFS.

  228. Mark I agree, and thus eliminating much rain in the equation. I think warning criteria should be met in most locations.

  231. I know 1 thing dynamic cooling is a must, it’s gonna have to snow fairly heavy for accumulations esp with temps the next couple days in the mid 40’s, ground is relatively warm, the only time for any real accumulation will happen Thu night as temps are in the lows 30’s, I always thought there were hints with this trend north but I think that trend north is done, hey it’s a weather blog so I’ll go out on a limb and say less than 3 inches will fall, I am not confident in that and if I had to go one way or another I would trend lower than 3 inches, when it snows snow ratios will be 4 to 7 inches per 1 inch of rain, enjoy the evening 🙂

  232. I don’t know what to think other than I wish we weren’t so far out still. NWS clearly not biting and they clearly know a lot more than we do about meteorology. They’ve all but said to throw the last 24hrs. of the GFS out.

    Would be a great snowstorm and I’m really holding out hope – just been burned so many times.

    One thing though that all the models agree on and that’s a bullseye of big QPF. Where does it land.

    Up for the 00z!

  233. Anyone willing to speculate on the state of the airport at Newark, NJ first thing Friday morning? I’m flying through there on the way to the Caribbean, and I’m getting nervous…

    1. Oh boy – I wish you luck

      My business associate is flying out of Boston Friday morning to head to a conference where he is presenting and I’m nervous about the possibility of him getting out.

  236. This is what I love about this blog. The drama is checked at the door. You people do your weather geeking in a very enjoyable way (except maybe to the troll but who cares?). There is a site which shall remain nameless (most of you know where but I’m not getting into that here) where the drama is head-spinning and out of control today. That’s not weather. That’s tabloidic. Ugh.

  237. The 00z nam run will be able to unravel some more details about this possibly light snow event, I do this the gfs is overdone but has a generally good idea on placement of the Low, just it’s a mess everywhere else

  238. Mike Wankum posting RPM showing .2 inches of snow in Boston and 22 in Worcester based on his tweet.

  241. We’re in that time period Hadi that I hate. It’s “no mans land” for me. Still far enough out for things to get all screwed up yet close enough where if things do change, it’s too late to reverse.

    Maybe I should take TK’s advice and be patient. (easy for him to say, he knows what he’s looking at! We just read back maps!) 🙂 🙂

  242. As I said a few days ago, once the energy comes ashore, models will begin to get a better handle on the track of this storm. Clearly we know the strength and models are beginning to converge on a possible track despite the EURO being the outlier. I certainly would NOT discount the EURO. At this time with regards to track, I’m blending the EC with the NAM/GFS. The wild card is how much will that strong easterly wind from the storm influence temps inside of 495. Could be serious boundary layer issues due to strong easterly LLJ. Cold High will need to be anchored due north and dynamic cooling will need to play a role if coastal areas want to get in on the fun. If the H is centered to our northeast, it will enhance the easterly winds and warm the coastal plane. So, it’s the track of the H that is just as important as the track of the surface low. It’s certainly getting interesting. Climatologically speaking, if this were mid-January, we’d be in very big trouble.

    1. Well said A-Rod.

      Climo. favors more inland this time of year for sure. Also favors higher qpf. IMHO. We’ll see.

  243. EARLY leaning for me (as far as snow amounts in my mind) is to cross the Euro & NAM.

  245. My call is 0 -1 Boston South and East, 1 – 3 inside the 95 belt, 3 – 6 from 95 to 495, 6 to 10 495 west.

  246. i know im gonna janks it but
    gfs….
    up to 3 inches east of i95
    3-6 inches west of i95 east of 128
    6-12 inches 128-495. south of the mass pike and ct river valley
    12+ higher elevations up int vt ,nh and eastern maine.
    Nam…..
    nothing south and east of boston.
    coastal northeast mass/boston areas east of i95 interior southeast mass 3 to 6 inches but only up to 3 inches coastal areas and interior southeast mass.
    areas west of i95 and inside of 495, southern half of rd and ct and the ct river valley .6-12 inches
    northeast ct, northwest rd up into central mass west of i495 12= inches.
    once you get past the mass/nh and mass/vt boarder there is a sharp cutoff of snowfall with only 3-6 in eastern sections of nh and southern vt. 6-12 southwest nh. but less than 6 inches else where. less than 1 in in coastal maine

    1. thats what the gfs and nam are saying. i copied the screens and put it into paint increased it and looked at it more closely … this is not what i actually think. i think its a little over done but its there within 68 hours of the beginning of the storm so its getting closer. i would like to see what the models say tonight and tomorrow. though. … im thinking if its as close as the gfs all lower locations will have rain with mixing at times. but thats just what my gut is saying.

  247. Mike Wankum posted different amounts from each model showing what that model would drop, he did not post a snow map. He said his favorite model of choice is the Euro and would not trade it for anything. He was not going with the Euro just saying how that was his favorite. He said the rain/snow line is to early to say. The one defeninet he said was the wind.

    1. Nice Matt.

      I forgot what I guessed for Worcester. I think I went something like 15% above normal which would be right there if this next storm pans out.

  250. Hey Retrac,
    This is most especially for you!!

    From NWS office at Upton, NY earlier this evening:

    ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    NORLUN TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
    ADDITIONAL PCPN WHICH APPEARS WOULD IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE JUST STARTED TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRI AS A RESULT…BUT PLACEMENT OF THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW PRES SYSTEM.

    😀 😀 😀

    1. By contrast, our friends at the Taunton office of NWS:

      GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
      HERE…WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A DEFERENCE TOWARD THE LOWER
      IMPACT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO
      IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT ECMWF
      HAS GENERALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE VERY MERIDIONAL
      /BLOCKING/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ATLANTIC OVER
      SEVERAL DAYS…SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
      ON THE DEEPENING HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
      MARITIMES.

    2. Thanks O.S. – I’ll take it now!

      We could use a couple of those Upton peeps mixed in with the Taunton crew. Are we past the trade deadline? 🙂

  252. Just checkedk the temps in Texas. Wow, DFW is 85F as are many other locations in the mid 80s.

    Whenever we finally get a sunny day, sunrise to sunset and even just some Pacific air, we’ll zoom into the 50s.

    Of course, with all the blocking and its tendency to take forever to break down, that could be a while.

    I’ve got to think thru the first 4 days of March, we’ve seen like 5% of the possible sunshine.

    1. Oh Yeah, remember it well. I believe it was discussed here yesterday.
      I remember seeing snow mixed in for hours and hours before it ever
      changed over here. Received about 1 foot in JP while Logan recorded 9 inches.

      My Brother in Pascoag RI (NW corner) received close to 30 inches.
      😀

      1. 19 1/2 inches here in Woburn in that one, after nearly 3 inches of rain. Imagine if that had been ALL snow. Holy *!$%!

        1. I also remember it well. My inlaws were driving up from SC to see my daughters forst pony. First time the towns around had more than one snow day. We had three. But don’t anyone tell tom or you WILL answer to me ;). And OS is right – it was mentioned as a comparison here yesterday

    2. I do ! Was in Lowell at the time. Also, a lot of rain preceded all of that heavy, wet snow, possibly close to 2 inches. I’m guessing that storm dumped 3 to 4 inches total melted precip.

    3. distribution for SNE only – would this system throw snow that far back into upstate NY if this were to follow suit?

  255. There will be BIG difference in snow amounts from say Logan and Hopkington, I can totally see little to nothing at Logan to 3 inches of cement in Hopkington, like I said I’m eager to see the nam run

  256. This could be a late winter early spring type storm where the higher you are in elevation the more snow you will receive and the valley locations will receive less.

    1. which was the case with the last storm. 😉 and thats what i was thinking about a week ago when everyone was saying out to sea. 😀

  257. light snow has coated the road and back yard. its been snowing all evening. since about 5.

  258. Does the storm compare at all to the march 28/29 1984 storm. Snow was horribly heavy with loss of power, evening rush hour traffic snarled and I remember hearing nothing but cracking branches as we did during the Halloween storm 2011

  259. I dont understand why we woukd have mixing issues? Isnt there the high to the north that fits the right ingredience to provide the cold air for us? The same high that could potentially shut this storm out to sea? So if the high is to the north of us, why would we see mixing issues?

    1. Not a tremendous cold airmass in place. And the ocean temps have been above normal all season so climate-wise we’re in a different spot that ‘typical’ early March.

  260. I am in with the ECMWF/ECMWF ENS to the point that even if it trended north, I am not sure I would jump and probably would shy away from model guidance right now. I have heard some comparison to April Fools storm. It is not at all similar in my mind.

    This is what I see.

    ECMWF has had a much better handle on overall day to day weather over SNE in the most recent 3 day period which tell me that the current atmospheric data it is ingesting is less polluted.

    All models including the GFS tend to agree that the southern stream energy is dominant in this system. A southern stream dominated system would be more progressive. The GFS is slowing the system down and creating anomalously high QPF in SNE by capturing an upper trough in the northern steam system and pulling the southern stream system northward, but keeps all the best forcing way south of SNE almost creating what looks like good old NAM convective feedback, but doing so in a different manner. This idea of northern stream upper trough capture is not supported at all by the synoptic pattern that the GFS is creating, so I further discount its solution.

    As for dynamic cooling, the draining cold air is just not that cold for a March snowstorm in SNE and the precip rates not that strong. I don’t see this is a major factor in increasing snowfall amounts. Combined with a deep penetrating E wind the temps are going to not be favorable inside I-95 for significant snow. This same set up will also create a valley shadow effect in the CT River Valley, so there is going to be a very slim area in between where any significant snow accumulations could be possible if we get enough moisture this far north and I am not forecasting that right now.

    Bigger emphasis at this time should be on the east facing shoreline areas and potential damage issues from a potentially relentless East wind.

    1. I couldn’t agree more on the wind being the primary issue right now.

      I’m on an ECMWF with a *dash* of NAM track at the moment.

      I posted a map of the December 1992 snowfall a while ago. The analog here in my mind is that the snowfall DISTRIBUTION is similar, but with lesser amounts, and in some areas GREATLY lesser amounts.

      1. I tried to couch the wind concern with the word potentially, but then used relentless to try and emphasize my concern. I have a bad fear for the east facing coastal areas and while the wind is not as sexy as snow, I feel all this time chasing the sexy girl, is taking away from what I believe should be the real concern in SNE with this system.

        1. Saw the analog. Not a bad match up. I would shave a lot off the amounts due to less cold air and its March instead of December, but general idea of where best accumulation potentials are iIthink is right.

          1. Which is what I was going for with that. And again about the wind I could not agree more…

  261. In northern Maine, eastward into the Maritimes, the current temps are in the mid to even upper 30s. They have been flooded with milder Atlantic Ocean air. Interestingly, I think a little bit of Continental Polar Air has mixed into southern New England on the NW flow and so, its almost a bit cooler down here.

    Anyhow, I dont know how the block to our northeast will reorient itself, if at all, the next 2 days. But, I’d think if the Maritimes stay as mild as they are now, then all of that milder surface air is going to be entrained into the system.

    I also wonder how solid the precip area will be in our area. Its not like the winter, where the further NW one goes, the more powdery the snow gets. Cant you see the lightest precip on the northern edge falling as rain and as one heads south into the heavier precip, it falls as snow. Also, if the precip is banded, oscillating on a north – south basis btwn light, heavy, light, heavy, etc, I’d think it be possible to cross 3 or 4 different precip types on a 20 mile north-south drive.

    I guess I’m less concerned with snow and more concerned about the wind.

    1. Once upon a time the GFS was the cold one and the NAM a warm/wet biased model.

  263. Thanks TK and JMA. And the wind and problems along the coast have been my very amateur concern as well. I am truly worried about what this will do on top of the feb 9 storm. With all the media hype I felt the destruction on our coast was under reported

    1. I can’t discount it 100% but because of the data source I am trusting most, it may be very difficult to get that much.

      I just saw a forecast map on a FB weather page that is predicting 12+ from Boston through Cape Cod with no mention of mixing. Can’t say I agree with that.

  265. TK,

    I thought you had mentioned that its easier to snow in March than it is in December?? So wouldn’t a storm like this even though it has an easterly wind be able to create its own cold and allowing it to snow all the way to the shore?

    Also is the GFS solution taking the storm further north not a possibility? Am I way off? Just trying to figure it all out.

    Thanks TK

    1. From a climate standpoint, it usually is. This particular year we’re dealing with milder than normal ocean waters. And in this particular set up we are dealing with marginal temperatures. So that rule of thumb is perched on the window sill and teetering.

  268. Doesn’t always mean its going to less of an impact than the April Fools storm could be more of an impact just in different ways. What are we still 72hrs out from the storm? Don’t forget Hadi the Euro made a big shift north. From previous runs it was going off of the mid atlantic and then diving south not anymore now moves east and then north before going further south. Will just have to wait for further runs.

  272. NAM looked like it was coming NE at hour 48 but then hit the roadblock at hour 51 and jumped back SE. Precip shield still looks like its coming north though…

    1. piece of high pressure or dry air, or both rotating down from Maine and giving the precip the smack down.

  273. Low tracking due east but heavy precip shield continues advancing north into SNE at hour 57. Temps not looking great on the coastal plain.

  274. I think temps will be marginal at surface but dynamics can overcome that. Mark you look in a nice position on the nam.

    1. Yeah, its pummeling us. If all snow, it would be a lot, but the warm air really takes over as the storm progresses.

  275. Can a storm that far OTS really throw that much precip. back that far? Not sure I can remember ever seeing that.

  277. sit and spin baby. The thing is now sitting on the gulf stream for crying out loud and still throwing stuff up here???

  278. the storm basically stalls out between hour 60 and 69. I can’t recall many storms like this either (except maybe a dying tropical storm) where there is virtually no precip around the low center and a shield of heavy precip far to the north. Must be that strong easterly fetch off the ocean, picking up the Atlantic moisture.

    1. That’s all I can think of Mark. Or it’s simply an illusion.

      I was going to mention that tropical thing this morning but figured I’d get hammered for it. The precip. almost looks like a hurricane going extra-tropical where the wind and precip. expand way out past the center before it craps out.

    1. I think its 3-4″ in that bullseye. the storm basically lolly gags out there and dies in place as it drifts toward Bermuda. By the end, the 850mb 0C line is as far west and north as Glens Falls, NY. Not buying that run!

  280. Thanks TK for that 1992 analog. I remember right after the storm, I drove to a dental appointment in Quincy. In Dorchester there was several inches (Logan officially got 9″) and in North Quincy there was zilch…not even a trace of snow. The dividing line literally was the Neponset Bridge (rte. 3 A). IIRC most of the storm was rain inside 495 and Worcester got tons and tons of snow.

    2. I know O.S.

      I’ve never seen that. It’s got to be gradient and fetch related. Maybe the models don’t have a good handle on this. I’m totally clueless.

      I’m gonna stay up for the GFS just to see what in the world it can cook up in algorithm world.

    1. It’s an 18-24 storm out here in the hills if true but TK and JMA have me wondering if I should just go to bed now and forget the GFS.

  284. I would love to see all snow since that would be a good dumping with the latest run of the NAM

    2. Forget the GFS now because it shows rain? The GFS is what got you here in the first place.

  287. Yep, looks like 4″ of rain and no snow in Boston while at retrac’s house, 22″ of snow followed by 1″ of rain. That may happen 😉

    Horse sh!t indeed OS!

  288. OS,

    The 18z run of the NAM had the 0c line all the way to NY as well. I think with such a long fetch off the ocean for such a long period of time it will rain unfortunately for the entire event. That really is a bummer for me in Quincy. BLAH…

    1. Yikes!! My trees can’t take any more of this. My back yard is already starting to look like the scene from Patton where the trees are getting ripped by apart by German artillery.

    1. Hey, it could be some new kind of Norlun trough that goes back like 1200 miles! I think O.S. has been tinkering with the model supercomputers and left a screwdriver in their or something else. 🙂

  293. As i said earlier, the problem isn’t going to if the storm moves north, but precipitation type. I smell sleet and rain. Yuckkk. What a waste of good storm, ill rather for it go OTS Than being all rain

  295. 1000-500mb thickness looks good the entire event. I’m wondering IF there might be
    a prolonged period of sleet or what they now like to call ice pellets???? 😀

    1. I remember a storm in March during the early to mid 60s where we received 2-4 inches of SLEET. Where I was living at the time (Millis) it sleeted the entire event. Shoveling that stuff was unreal. Don’t know what it did at Logan or worcester.

      Perhaps that would be the analog for this event? TK?

  297. Chris Lambert’s blog says that the closer the storm gets to us the more likely colder air would be dragged down and bring snow down to the coastline (Boston).

    TK, do you agree with this dynamic cooling scenario? It has been my thinking as well.

  302. Just looked at NAM critical thicknesses and they’re clustered right on top of Boston essentially. That storm that dropped 8″ here two weekends ago and rain in Boston had a similar look if I remember right. Lines start from Boston to Providence down to New Haven

    1. At least there’s QPF to the Canadian border O.S. which means the storm could shift as far south as Jacksonville and we’d still get 1-2″.

    2. Compare that map to the 12z euro snow map I just posted above – it’s basically the same thing which should be no surprise as DT has been harping on that all day!

  304. Warning***Warning***Warning***

    DT is going to be completely wrong!! Is this guy even a good meteorologist?? He seems to think that hes pretty awesome..

  306. Even though there will be dynamic cooling and coat the ground in Boston the easterly wind is to much for significantly snow inside 128 Down to Boston to Providence south and east, north and west of 495 continues to look like jackpot, some if not most of us r gonna see a decent dose of rain out of this

      1. Your missing snow, light snow event for us but west of 128 about an inch west of 495 2-4 of cement, total precip in Boston will be somewhere around an inch and .90 with be in the form of rain, hey on a side note I’m gonna try the accu pro for 30 days, hope all is well 🙂

  308. Sorry about that, I was having padding installed on the walls of the blog for your safety. 😉

    2. Whose safety. Not clear due to where your post ended up.

      Retrac’s? Mine? Hadi’s? TJ’s? Marks?

      2. I’ve assumed he means all of us O.S.

        God knows what sort of melt down we’re all about to have. 😉

    2. Seriously O.S., we’ve examined every single nuance for days now and I’m more confused than ever. Maybe it’s just time to revert to occam’s razor.

  311. Dynamic cooling will take place, but dynamic cooling does not always equal snow. It might equal somewhat colder rain. 😉 It’s all relative. I have not given any amounts yet mainly because I have yet to figure this thing out. As JMA stated, the wind / coastal impact may be something far more significant than snow for the greater part of the forecast area. Snow amounts are still too uncertain to start targeting areas for heavy snow potential. Obviously the greater concern would be for higher elevations in a setup like this, but as for details – just too many variables to consider even at this stage. Feverish work to figure it out in a reasonable amount of time to issue #’s to give enough warning for what to expect.

  313. Thanks TK…I know its to early to post any numbers. However, is there anyway in which the coast or Boston can see a snow event and not all rain? What would be some indicators to look for to see if there are any trends colder or warmer solutions? Thanks again.

    1. Sure it’s still possible, but I’m finding it hard to believe the city itself may need much plowing, if any. If the ocean water was at or below normal as it is in some years – different story entirely. East wind becomes a blow torch in a season like this one when the water is mild.

    2. Like I mentioned the other night Hadi, take a drive to Mountain Rd. in Princeton one of these years for stuff like this. Short drive and worth it for elevation storms. Can go from pouring rain to whiteout in 3-5 miles.

  315. Kevin Lemanowicz says mostly rain for Boston and inside 495 with lots of snow for the Worcester hills northward with cold air damming. Since rainstorms almost never go OTS (can’t recall ever seeing one in my lifetime anyway) we should get ready for major urban/basement flooding with this one in eastern MA to the Cape. 🙁

    A repeat of March 2010?? UGH! 🙁 🙁

  316. I’m afraid the low center may indeed pass so far south that we don’t get the chance to set up a coastal front, a north wind inland, stronger cold air, and more ability for banding to bring down colder air from above. Instead you see some heavy bands on a larger scale, wheeling in from the east, with a more widespread east wind, still pretty powerful, no real coastal front, and snow confined more to the higher elevations and far inland. This is how this may end up playing out. But either way, still significant impact on the coast from long distance easterly fetch and strong winds. … Getting an idea that only the hills of Worcester County and the Berks may end up with 6+ from this in terms of snow. Still time for it to change, but that’s starting to be my feeling.

  317. My colleague just said to me this: “00z Euro – most important run eva!” I have to agree.

  320. Tk…Most important Ever?? You seem very concerned!!! 00z gfs looks colder if I’m looking at the model correctly??

  326. OS,

    Do you think the gfs is way over done? I think we should cut those totals in half. That would still be 2.5inchs still alot of precip.

  329. I’ve tooken those rides up 495 from Wrentham to see the changeover and it’s so neat how it goes from basically plain rain in Wrentham to Marlboro 22 miles north on 495 and there’s accumulating snow, I think this is one of those types of storms, will c though

    1. So was the Catholic church about the geocentric model of the universe :).

      Seriously, though, I hope the GFS is onto something. It would be a nice way to tranistion to warmer times.

  331. Looking back at the 12z Euro on wunderground, it really does have a similar set up to the GFS and NAM in that the shield of heavier precip expands and separates well north of the storm center. Difference with the Euro is that it is just too far south. Even so, it still gets the northern fringe of precip in here and is cold enough like the GFS to drop a moderate snowfall across many interior areas of SNE. It would not take much of a shift north of the Euro to put us in the heavier precip. Those higher QPF totals are lurking just off shore. Yes, the 0z run will probably be quite telling as to what actually happens here.

      1. I think so too. Tat other piece of energy is further west too towards the eastern part of Michigan at 72 hours.

  334. Sorry I never posted a new blog up to this point. Most of you will wake up to a new one. 🙂

  335. I put it on channel 5 to watch Harvey and about puked when I saw it was Wankum.
    Turned it back over to watch Todd, who handled it beautifully! absolutely perfectly!

  337. From HPC:

    PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z
    ECMWF THRU 48 HRS (AVG CONFIDENCE)…THEN A COMBO OF THE 12Z
    ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN/UKMET THEREAFTER (BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE)

    So they are pretty much tossing both the GFS and NAM for the period when the storm will be affecting us.

      1. I’d be happy with the outcome if they took the NAM/Euro blend beyond 48 hours as well but a Euro/UKMET blend isn’t going to be a very exciting outcome precip-wise if it verifies.

  340. Harvey is definitely up, I assume he had a chance to review the Euro:

    @HarveyWCVB: There are now enough solid indications that big ocean storm will come close enough to affect us.

  341. 0z Euro continues the slight northerly progression with track but I am hearing the QPF is WAY up in eastern MA and Boston. Getting hit good between 66-84 hours in a long duration event and thermal profiles cold enough for snow in most areas. WOW. A definite shift towards the GFS! Hype meters will be cranking in the AM!

    Approx QPF totals:

    BOS: ~2.00″

    ORH: 1.00″

    HFD: 1.00″

    PVD: 2.00″

    LWM: 1.00″

    MPM: 0.75″

  342. NWS going with euro and colder solution. Precip shield looks so weird from nam.

    Charlie your question from earlier I am betting a solid 6-10 inches for much of eastern mass.

  343. So, I read the NWS options ……

    A) Potentially up to 7 inches total precip.

    or

    B) 6-12 inches of wet snow

    Wasnt liking either option, then read the finer print about this possibly being similar to the Feb 2010 storm. That was the one where the Mets were on TV apologizing because the heavy precip never pivoted north of the extreme South Coast.

    So, I’ll root for the finer print without the apologies ! Have a good day all !!

  345. Wow, just read NWS and they’re all over the place. I think they covered just about everything in that discussion.

  346. The 6z GFS still has a ton of qpf right at the coast. Really tight gradient inside of 95. From 1.25″ of qpf to 3″ in maybe no more than 20 miles + –

    1. If the euro is correct it would make the early February Blizzard a cake walk in terms of power outages down on the south shore.

    1. Models are all over the place Hadi. Who knows how this is gonna turn out. Watched the broadcasts this morning for the first time in a while. They’re all over the place.

  349. The euro is clearly the way the NWS is leaning and that is the coldest of solutions offering the most snowfall. I still can’t understand what the nam is doing with 850 temps, makes little sense to me.

  350. Euro text output for Boston

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z MAR05
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 00Z 05-MAR 0.8 -6.9 1004 66 92 0.00 532 529
    TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.0 -6.3 1008 73 76 0.00 532 526
    TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.1 -6.3 1012 74 74 0.00 535 525
    TUE 18Z 05-MAR 5.4 -7.1 1014 60 81 0.01 538 526
    WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.6 -6.4 1018 84 73 0.01 539 525
    WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.3 -6.3 1018 91 56 0.00 541 526
    WED 12Z 06-MAR 2.6 -6.4 1019 93 45 0.02 543 528
    WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.2 -7.4 1020 70 70 0.03 546 530
    THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -8.0 1019 74 60 0.03 547 531
    THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.6 -7.1 1016 75 90 0.02 546 533
    THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.7 -5.7 1017 87 95 0.14 546 532
    THU 18Z 07-MAR 1.4 -5.1 1016 87 99 0.26 546 533
    FRI 00Z 08-MAR 1.0 -6.3 1018 90 99 0.50 548 534
    FRI 06Z 08-MAR 1.1 -5.7 1016 93 99 0.45 548 535
    FRI 12Z 08-MAR 0.8 -5.6 1016 88 99 0.39 547 534
    FRI 18Z 08-MAR 1.5 -4.7 1018 77 96 0.17 548 534
    SAT 00Z 09-MAR 2.4 -4.0 1021 68 7 0.01 553 536
    SAT 06Z 09-MAR -0.3 -1.0 1023 78 10 0.00 555 537
    SAT 12Z 09-MAR -1.6 -0.4 1025 83 11 0.00 557 537
    SAT 18Z 09-MAR 3.2 0.9 1025 64 12 0.00 557 537
    SUN 00Z 10-MAR -2.0 1.0 1026 87 7 0.00 558 538
    SUN 06Z 10-MAR -7.7 1.4 1024 92 15 0.00 559 540
    SUN 12Z 10-MAR -8.8 0.5 1023 90 15 0.00 558 540
    SUN 18Z 10-MAR 3.5 -0.1 1017 74 60 0.00 553 539
    MON 00Z 11-MAR 1.9 -3.8 1012 84 98 0.03 542 532
    MON 06Z 11-MAR -0.9 -6.0 1010 86 47 0.01 536 528
    MON 12Z 11-MAR -1.5 -6.9 1014 73 54 0.00 536 525
    MON 18Z 11-MAR 4.9 -8.4 1017 53 42 0.00 542 528
    TUE 00Z 12-MAR -0.6 -8.3 1022 75 31 0.00 548 531

    1. Seeing that the storm has not hit the east coast yet, I think we should keep a open mind to all possible outcomes before painting the kettle black.

  354. I think the biggest bust potential with this is for high qpf totals west of 95 and for sure west of 495.

      1. That’s still a bunch. Storm with more qpf means storm that’s closer which means you guys get rain.

  358. You were talking about bust potential and one of our meteorologist here in CT was leaving that door open. Reading the NWS discussion they point out February 2010 and we all remember that when SNE was suppose to get several inches of heavy wet snow and we got little to no snow from that.

  361. Everyone stop posting…it took me 207 thumb movements to get to the bottom of this blog on my blackberry…. 🙂

    1. There are hot links for the five most recent comments on the right margin, I just hit one of those to apperate to the bottom of the column and scroll up to where I left off – is that not possible on a Blackberry?

  362. Tk looking things over I’m guessing you will change your comment on Boston not needing plows . Sure is looking like they will tk. East wind may not hold.

  363. You can click on the name of the last person who posted and go right to that post. It’s on the right side at top. Then u just scroll up a bit. You shouldn’t have to scroll down thru the whole thread

      1. I LOVE that feature. It also lets me know instantly when I come to the blog if there are new comments.

  364. JR had snow in a very small area central ma. Rain snow looked to be thru at least 495. Roker showed GFS and euro scenarios and on his maps from 495 east it appeared to be all rain. Is this correct or are they really struggling with the rain/snow line – something the conversation here seems to me to point out also.

    1. Our microcast on our ABC affliate in here in CT which is the future radar showed all rain for Boston and for other areas near
      or at the coast. The setup looked similar to the October Noreaster. That model is projecting close to 10 inches for the Worcester
      area which brings power issues into play. It was stressed this could change.

  365. Margusity is walking back his snow for DC, Balt., Philly. He was talking about “Big Daddy Dreams” last night.

  366. The other concern along with the potential for heavy wet snow which could lead to power outages are those wind gusts.
    I would expect later today wind and winter weather alerts to be issued. Where this stays all snow I am thinking a level 2 snow event.

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