Midweek Monster

473 Comments

7:30AM

Yes a very big storm will be developing along the Mid Atlantic Coast by tomorrow and impacting southeastern New England for 3 days through Friday. What’s known is that wind will be a big issue, along with coastal flooding problems at high tide times from tomorrow night through Friday (most likely to be minor to moderate). What’s still a bit up in the air is a rain/snow line. For now looking at mostly snow/mix in higher elevations from south central NH through interior MA and northern RI, mostly rain along the coast, and a combination of both in between. There may be a transition to snow closer to the coast with time. By later today, another update will try to nail down timing of precipitation and snow amounts.

Before this, one more day of another big storm offshore to the east spinning lots of clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers into the area before it gets out of the way for its big brother.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few light rain or snow showers possible. Highs 40-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty sprinkles of rain or flakes of snow possible. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Storm of snow/mix/rain with gusty winds. Low 31. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 41.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 44.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 43.

473 thoughts on “Midweek Monster”

  1. Mets are all over on this, snow, rain, mix… who’s on first? Look’s like a tough setup to nail down precip types.

  3. Thanks TK.

    What’s your take on conditions at Newark airport on Friday morning. Will my flights from Boston -> Newark and Newark-> Saint Thomas potentially have issues from this storm?

  4. TK thank you!

    Your scenario mirrors JR’s on 7. And also pretty much what Al Roker showed on the Today show although I pay far more attention to our own mets. Roker does show graphics for what both models are saying which I find more than interesting.

  5. Question with regard to Logan. As it is on the ocean, can the wind that seems to be a given for this storm affect flights. My business associate and wife have a 6 am flight Friday morning and I’m thinking even with rain in Boston that the wind may delay or cancel that.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    It took me about 20 mins. or so to read the previous blog! 🙂 I have only a 2004 HP desktop – unfortunately, I don’t have a smartphone, tablet, etc. I enjoyed reading everyone’s posts, ‘though. Looking forward to reading everyone’s posts today – it’s going to be a very interesting day weather-wise!

  8. Thanks TK! Hoping the wind portion of this storm is not too destructive, especially to already hard hit coastal communities!!!

  12. Here you go OS

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z MAR05
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 00Z 05-MAR 0.8 -6.9 1004 66 92 0.00 532 529
    TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.0 -6.3 1008 73 76 0.00 532 526
    TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.1 -6.3 1012 74 74 0.00 535 525
    TUE 18Z 05-MAR 5.4 -7.1 1014 60 81 0.01 538 526
    WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.6 -6.4 1018 84 73 0.01 539 525
    WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.3 -6.3 1018 91 56 0.00 541 526
    WED 12Z 06-MAR 2.6 -6.4 1019 93 45 0.02 543 528
    WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.2 -7.4 1020 70 70 0.03 546 530
    THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -8.0 1019 74 60 0.03 547 531
    THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.6 -7.1 1016 75 90 0.02 546 533
    THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.7 -5.7 1017 87 95 0.14 546 532
    THU 18Z 07-MAR 1.4 -5.1 1016 87 99 0.26 546 533
    FRI 00Z 08-MAR 1.0 -6.3 1018 90 99 0.50 548 534
    FRI 06Z 08-MAR 1.1 -5.7 1016 93 99 0.45 548 535
    FRI 12Z 08-MAR 0.8 -5.6 1016 88 99 0.39 547 534
    FRI 18Z 08-MAR 1.5 -4.7 1018 77 96 0.17 548 534
    SAT 00Z 09-MAR 2.4 -4.0 1021 68 7 0.01 553 536
    SAT 06Z 09-MAR -0.3 -1.0 1023 78 10 0.00 555 537
    SAT 12Z 09-MAR -1.6 -0.4 1025 83 11 0.00 557 537
    SAT 18Z 09-MAR 3.2 0.9 1025 64 12 0.00 557 537
    SUN 00Z 10-MAR -2.0 1.0 1026 87 7 0.00 558 538
    SUN 06Z 10-MAR -7.7 1.4 1024 92 15 0.00 559 540
    SUN 12Z 10-MAR -8.8 0.5 1023 90 15 0.00 558 540
    SUN 18Z 10-MAR 3.5 -0.1 1017 74 60 0.00 553 539
    MON 00Z 11-MAR 1.9 -3.8 1012 84 98 0.03 542 532
    MON 06Z 11-MAR -0.9 -6.0 1010 86 47 0.01 536 528
    MON 12Z 11-MAR -1.5 -6.9 1014 73 54 0.00 536 525
    MON 18Z 11-MAR 4.9 -8.4 1017 53 42 0.00 542 528
    TUE 00Z 12-MAR -0.6 -8.3 1022 75 31 0.00 548 531

    1. 0Z CMC total qpf, about 25-30MM (A little more than 1 inch) for Boston:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&lang=en&map=na

      I think the CMC and the UKMET are somewhat outliers now. 😀

      JMA still wants to give us a decent hit as well:

      http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif

      Having trouble accessing the FIM website. Will check later.
      0Z run was looking really fine late last night. I wanted to check total qpf.

  16. This is a warm storm guys. As I alluded to yesterday, inside of 495 may have trouble overcoming the marine layer. Strong ENE winds is the culprit. Winds need to come in from the NE and N. Doesn’t look to be in the cards. Lots of precip and wind but most falls in the form of rain. Welcome spring.

      1. Do you even look at the possibilities that rain may be a player for this area. If the winds stay east explain how this would accumulate. I believe tk said an eastwind now would be like a blowtorch. However I did hear somewhere today the wind could go north.

        1. JC on 5 showed one computer model possibility with 4.8 in Boston but the jackpot of 7.8 in Worcester county.

        2. Of course John, I was saying that all day yesterday.
          With new guidance, I don’t see rain now. That is all. 😀

    2. I hope your right and we have a big rainstorm with not even a flake. Did I hear the winds may go north though for a time.

  17. Alisonarod what you just said is what micorcast the future radar at the ABC station in CT is projecting with rain throughout the event for Boston and all areas inside 495. West of there it stays all snow and where I am. That particulary model is projecting close to 10 inches in and around the Worcester area.

    1. I had the sense it was what TK is saying also – perhaps the rain/snow line gets a bit mixed but that makes sense to me as all one or the other would seem too difficult to pinpoint yet and possibly too difficult to pinpoint at all. Not based on any knowledge but just on what I’ve seen and heard and trying to find a middle ground.

    1. The wind arrows the way you want them to be if you want snow coming out of the north and northeast. That wind will gust
      with this storm. Not only do I expect winter weather alerts to be issued at some point but also wind alerts as well.

  21. How many here think this will be mostly event formost of south eastern ma. I do.with the right wind direction.

  22. John I think it’s up in the air at this point to be honest. A lot of data points to snow and some data points to rain. We are in early March so sun angle etc…play a role. I would not proclaim all rain or all snow until we see how the low pressure plays out. How far north does it make it etc… If you trust what the EURO is saying then you are looking at mostly snow.

    1. Hadi,

      Here is my feeling re: Sun angle etc.

      All of that stuff only matters for “light” precipitation with marginal temperatures. If it were in the 20s or the precipitation were reasonably intense, it would mean Nothing.

      I still see this as a snow event. Could I be wrong? ABSOLUTELY!!!!!

      We shall see.

    2. I actually don’t trust any of them. I would say its a roll of the dice. But I believe from past experience an easterly wind would keep Boston and the coast all rain, is that correct, that does not worry you. And Thursdays temperature is to be in the mid 40s and not to drop under 32 at night for the rest of the week I think.

  23. Most global guidance is projecting mostly snow and most american models are projecting more rain.

  24. Interesting approach by the major networks. I wonder if somehow common sense got through to management. Only 5 has numbers and JC was careful to point out they were what only one computer model showed. 4 and 7 are somewhere in TK’s area and no numbers yet. Good for the mets (and hopefully public feedback) if they got through to management.

    That being said, by tonight they’ll need to put some numbers against the storm. It’ll be just 24 hours away at that point. It’s a very fine line.

      1. You are right JJ and I should have said that all are stressing the one thing they have confidence in is the wind and coastal damage which is what is very worrisome.

        1. Power outages could be another probelm particularly areas that get several inches of heavy wet snow since
          the wet snow clings to things and you add wind gusts that is a receipe for some power issues.

  25. No one is mentioning Ice but if there is a sharp rain/snow line, is there a potential for the area around the line to have a significant ice storm?

      1. That’s certainly good news – thanks OS. I have this feeling – again based on nothing – that you are right about the snow. And even a few inches in the city of very wet snow will be problematic. One of the other problems is what happened in the 3/28/84 storm. The trees are waking up for spring and the branches are more flexible. I think this is happening earlier than it did in 1984 so I wonder if it means they will not be able to tolerate as much heavy snow as they might mid-winter.

  27. i want to say that areas east of i95 will not get anything more than 3 inches. but i just can not say do to the gfs being so consistant with the system. which now shows alot of areas getting 6+ for the past 2 runs. what is the euro saying. what i see is that it says nothing in the form of snow based on wondermaps on weather underground.

  33. Does anyone know the BAMS Model? I saw it on twitter and it has similar snowfall for south shore as the euro.

  36. Even if we get snow in Boston it would probably only be later wednesday night as Thursday will change to rain as the temperature will climb into the mid 40s.

    2. Not sure what you are basing that on? If you look at EURO temps profiles it shows mostly snow for Boston.

      1. Hadi noa website has total precip as quarter inch or less by Thursday night. What I’m trying to get at is don’t put all the egs into the snow basket. You need to be flexible and consider rain may or may not be a key factor.

  37. On the south shore I have seen many snow storms in the past and usually the same places get nailed depending on the storm itself. There is the storms that nail Randolph / Weymouth area, the ones that hit Brockton / Taunton and ones that nail Plymouth to CCC. The Bams model nails the Randolph/Weymouth Area.

  38. I had this sudden realization this morning that quite frankly, I’m cold.

    Bring on a brief spring, and then SUMMER.

    I’ll be happy if we get snow, however. I will extremely unhappy with a cold, wet rain. Makes for wretched dog walking, especially if it’s for three straight days. YUCK.

      1. Ahh but snow you have to clean only on occasion – once it stops you have to mow the lawn and do yardwork weekly 😉

          2. hahahaha – ours are grown 🙁 and gone for the most part – we do have a SIL but I wouldn’t let him touch the gardens

    2. through march let it be cool enough so i can ski on good snow conditions. then in april heat things up. and by may i want summer weather. i would rather skip spring and go right to summer so i can get in the pool or go to the beach…. sometimes we light up the pool area and we do evening dips even after we went to the beach. torches, pool light. patio lights. lights on the unbrella. i want my winter though. so it can wait until march 30th then it can warm up trees get their leaves and give me some summer weather 😀

    1. I disagree. The placement of the higher totals seems reasonable where the ocean will have less of a influence and the high elevation will do what it does in the spring.

      1. That’s ok. That’s what this forum is all about, a healthy discussion where we can disagree with no hard feelings. It’s great.

        That being said, I disagree. 😀

        We shall see. No matter how it turns out, it will be extremely
        exciting!!!

        2. I think you and hadi may get burnt at the end. I think you need to look at March, ocean temp and wind direction. You may be right I just respectfully disagree with both of you. Main concern for Boston is the wind.

  41. I would like to see all rain here in Sudbury – but I highly doubt that will happen. Even if it starts as rain or there is a mix, I think it will end as snow around here. I could be wrong, of course, so many variables.

    Question: the EURO is usually, not always, pretty reliable. Does the GFS seem to be predicting more accurately lately?

    1. The Euro generally speaking is the MOST reliable model, however, for the last
      2 events, the GFS actually performed better.

      In any case, the Euro has come around and there is pretty good agreement.
      We’re in for it. Just depends upon who gets rains and who gets snow.

      I’m in the SNOW camp, at least for Boston points North and West and even Southwest. The farther South Shore one goes, the more it is in doubt.

      Sudbury = A SNOW dump almost for certain in my opinion. 😀

      1. Thanks, OS. Didn’t really want to hear about snow around here, but frankly, I am in agreement with you. Just can’t see a rain event here with this storm.

  43. Hi Vicki……re yr question about the wind affecting the flight. As long as the wind is on the runway (if using runway 4, then the wind needs to be blowing basically from 40 degrees or true northeast), then a high wind will only get the aircraft off the ground quicker (although maybe bumpier). Problems arise when you have high crosswinds. Remember that the plane has to take off into the wind. That’s why during a snow shutdown with a northeast wind, they will be plowing runway 33 because they know that the wind will shift into the nw (roughly from 330 degrees) when the storm goes by and precip lightens up. You didn’t want to go away and leave us to clean up the mess anyways, did you? Lol

    1. hahahaha – I’m not the one going or you would hear me griping LOUDLY. I have to say I would miss a trip before I’d miss storm…..sad and not 100% true but close enough.

      Thank you very much for the explanation- it’s wonderful!

  44. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    With a NE wind off H2O, surface will be too warm for first half of storm for much if any snow accum outside of hills…IMO…

  45. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Thus, at this point can’t see much snow accum up thru Thursday PM…again outside of hills.

    1. Totally disagree with Todd. Sorry.
      I just don’t think he has enough experience with New England weather.

      With an East or ESE wind, then maybe yes. The winds WILL be Northeast, backing to North.

      This spells SNOW and is supported by the Euro, GFS and SREF.

  47. I guess the mets will throw out the EURO and go with a NAM/GFS solution calling for rain, could be right but that’s why we discuss it 🙂

  48. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Thu night-Fri looks more favorable to me for snow accum in Eastern MA…the wind starts backing more NNE & 2nd shortwave should energize.

  49. I’m going all out and saying this will be a total miss. Call me crazy, but someone has to offer this one up. Bust it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂

      1. Sorry, WW!

        Ideally, I’d like it to miss altogether. But it won’t. I’m on the snow wishcasting team this time around, for my own selfish reasons!

        You and John can be on the rain wishcasting team!

        1. im with the snow as well. just because i want the snow and also i rather have a foot of snow than up to 3 inches of rain any day. 3 inches of rain this time of year would lead to the marshland behind my house to go over its bank and flood the houses down the street.

          2. I truly wish you were right. I think we had a miss not long ago, but lately, we have had a storm. I am thinking that there will be snow – at least west of 128. Probably mostly rain along east and south coasts. But then along the coasts will likely be getting high surf and high winds. No, I would love for this storm to stay away; but I highly doubt it.

    2. Not a miss. The big concern will be the wind and possible tides. Boston will not see a lot of snow if any at all.might be in the air at points. I’m basing this on March, timing of storm, ocean temp, daytime temp and wind direction. Storm does not come in till late Wednesday night. If you have loose objects laying around move them or loose it. Wind will be bad with damage and power outages. I may be wrong but I’m sticking by it. Wind and rain storm for Boston south at times snow in the air but should not accumulate.

  50. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Little if anything will accum in SE MA with mild surface temps and lots of rain…

  52. It seems like yesterday all the mets were going with the Euro OTS solution and now that the Euro calls for snow they are going with the NAM. I think people are putting way too much stock into this BL issue wind off the water causing rain inside 495. Really? The ocean is probably just past its coolest point of the year and granted may be warmer than average for this time of year. In the December storm where the R/S line pushed back a few miles past 95 the water was 7 degreees warmer. So if I’m getting this right, this is now going to push back to 495 with an ocean temp around 38? I think the chance for snow near the coast is higher than people are currently predicting. As an aside, looked at observed temps over the last couple days and they were 3-4 degrees cooler than what was predicted, heavier cloud cover I would imagine

    1. Hey your initials are GFS! 😀 😀 😀

      I agree 187.99% with what you say.

      This WILL be a SNOW event. 😀

      1. I tried to come up with a name for the EURO but couldn’t think of anything clever so I defaulted to the GFS!

    2. For what it’s worth, I’ve been thinking the same about the ocean temps being colder. Also, I have trouble using the fact that it’s March for a basis that there will not be snow. WE have seen a lot of nasty March storms – April also. Temps are one thing but months to me …..not so much.

  53. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    In the end several inches are very possible near 495 with a sharp, decreasing snow gradient as you get closer to coast.

    It’s the in between that’s the tough part for snow amounts…so much 2 factor: rain/snow line, temps, intensity, day/night, etc…

    1. Hey, you can go with Todd if you wish, but I think he is OUT TO LUNCH
      on this. Here is something funny, my wife says he is ALWAYS WRONG!!!

      😀 😀 😀

      2. hmmmmm – I’m a fan of Todd’s too ………. well, I’m a fan of them all but Pete’s really my boy 😉

  54. go to the models press the prt scr button make a dotted box in paint. click paste the model picture shows up. then put a dottted box over southern new england. right click . click copy. go to new paint. make another dotted box. click paste. expand it. it will show you more clear the amounts for each section. what im seeing right now for the past runs of the gfs and nam. i would say there is
    100% this storm effects us some how
    80% chance precipitation effects the area
    50% likly hood of areas east of i95 less than 6 inches
    areas west of i95 greather than 6 inches.
    30% chance all areas north ,west and southwest of boston sees 6+ inches of snow and areas south and east of boston gets. up to 6 inches.
    95% confident of the cape and south shore getting no accumulationg snow
    im basing this just on the nam and gfs. i have not looked at the euro yet. so this is not what i think will actually happen its just possibilities. 😉 i think so much is still uncertain that its suicidal to put any distinct numbers out today. 😛

    1. i also based that on trends of the gfs and nam. i put them all togeather. and looked at them.

    2. gfs and nam have been consistant with this system. euro has just started to show some agreement.

  56. All I know is its ok to get excited for the discussions and conversating but if anyone thinks Boston to Providence is on for a snowstorm I think your going to be disappointed, this is a 495 belt snow event, very typical for this time of year, when conversating with hadi at our meetings hadi had asked me do you think we get 1 last snowstorm and I said yeah but most of it is inland, yeah it was prolly just luck, I’m not buying a snowstorm for Boston or Providence, That’s just what I see

  57. Got to love weather and if I bust then so be it, no one is relying on my forecast I hope 🙂 I think in the end it will be colder than modeled.

  58. I say Boston and Providence receive less than 1 inch of snow while Worcester receives over 3 inches

  59. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Look, it’s just an opinion folks, I may have to change thinking but when precip isn’t heavy and wind is NE I think it’s too mild.

    4. NWS tweeted a probability map for >4″ of snowfall and the bullseye was similar to that map OS, maybe it was generated based off the SREF? They mentioned it was one piece of the puzzle, so they are not hanging their hat on it.

  61. I can’t wait to see what King EURO says. I saw the graphic on TWC and it showed a nice 8-12 inch snowfall here in CT and 12-18 inch snowfall close to the Boston area.
    I think the elevated areas will meet warning level criteria. The valley and coastal areas is a tough call but I would lean towards advisory level snowfall.

    1. Boston too TK?

      Amy did you see the great comment above to me re wind from Weatherbee2 – it was for Logan but still good to know

  64. Look at the 12z GFS. weds. 6z has precip on NW side. Big difference from 6z at same time

    Let’s see what happens..

  65. My blog time is limited today til about 4… will catch up then update late aftn!!

  69. Just in from Taunton NWS office:

    GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS. THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW /6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREAT OVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA.

    😀

  70. Tricky forecast for sure, but I can’t agree with the Rain camp at this point although it is interesting once again to have model divergence this close to the event. The NAM and its 850 line that far west just doesn’t make sense especially when the GFS, EURO, SREF do not support anything like it, at all. Who would of thought with a track outside the benchmark we would be talking about rain? Gotta love New England

    1. Go For Snow…A track outside of the BM does not mean that snow is a sure bet. Wind direction will me more easterly and precipitation won’t be as heavy. With the lack of heavy precipitation one would see with a storm that goes more OTS, evaporational/dynamic cooling does not pull cold air down to the surface. Also, we are not experiencing a cold airmass right now. Therefore, even a storm outside the BM does not guarantee snow. In this case, it favors rain.

  71. Hmmm

    12Z GFS now wants to go WAY more off shore than previous runs.

    I wonder if this becomes a SNOW or NO situation??????

    1. Further offshore keeps the wind predominantly east and lessens the evaporational cooling mechanism. Rain would be even more likely along the coast.

    3. This WHOLE thing is acting weird.

      12Z GFS still brings heavier precip into Eastern MA, but not Nearly as
      much as previous runs. Is this the new trend?

      Waiting for run to complete.

      Btw, this run is MUCH COLDER.

      1. Def. colder.

        We don’t get into anything until 18z Thursday.

        Huge bust potential here – especially interior.

    4. So there is something to WeatherWiz’s comment that it will be a miss. Interesting. I’m glad the mets are holding back — the trolls will go up one side of them and down the other if this is a miss – but they can’t hold back too much longer. Boy I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes

  72. Sorry OS, Hadi. I’m not on board with you guys. A northeast wind does not necessarily mean SNOW. The air to our north is not very cold and surface temps are marginal at best. This storm will need to create its own cold air to cool the column all the way to the coast. As we push toward spring, sun angle, more sun light, a relatively warm ground, climatology and a predominantly E and ENE wind does not favor snow inside 495. A changeover to snow as we get later in the event and as wind direction becomes more northerly is not out of the question but won’t amount to very much in Boston. Did you notice that even where it stays all snow, snow amounts aren’t very impressive??? I agree to disagree. I just don’t see what you are seeing but once again, time will tell, and we will know the true story in 3 days.

      1. OS. I’m very surprised at you. This set up is not conducive for a snowstorm in Boston. We have had many BM storms over the years that resulted in precip type issues. The airmass isn’t very cold, surface temps are marginal, wind direction is more ENE and evaporational cooling won’t be a huge player unless this storms tracks closer. There is also no model consensus but put aside the models for a moment. Common sense and the overall set up just doesn’t favor snow.

        1. Sorry, still don’t agree with you.

          You could be correct. We shall see.

          BTW, the Euro, GFS and SREF ALL indicate SNOW.
          😀

    1. I hope this is not the start of trend towards nothing at all. As I said earlier one of meteorologist here in CT said this has
      a bust potential.

  76. For those who thnk it can’t really snow in March, Logan averages 8.0″ for the month. Even April averages 2.0″ compared to November’s 1.3″.

    1. Who says it can’t snow in March. I think many of us are aware that it can snow in May if the set up is just right 😀

      1. Yes, most including myself know it can snow in March…I just get the feeling there are still a few disbelievers. 😉

  78. GFS paints the nearly the same amount of the snow the EURO does for eastern mass, closing in on 10+ inches

      1. I don’t find that ludicrous at all. I also don’t find rain ludicrous. I do find anyone who thinks they ABSOLUTELY know what will happen, ludicrous.

          1. I think the EURO/GFS/SERF, which are all saying snow, are just as good as guidance from anywhere else. Just saying. I have no idea what it will do. It’s not definitive. Period.

        1. Did we not like the euro yesterday because it did not have snow for us? I feel there are some on here only support the model that shows more snow for their locations.

              1. John why should he have to look at the pros vs cons? He is not the one thats going to make it snow or rain. He is reporting model runs.

                OK So if it snows its going to be Hadi’s Fault!

                1. Absolutely not. But some things to consider that myself and others have been mentioning. It’s not January its march. It can and will snow in march if everything comes in just right. The issues I see with this storm is timing, temperatures at night and day, ocean temperature and the key component will be the direction of the wind which I believe will be the killer for Boston south.

  80. I believe the last March snowstorm for Boston was in 2009 so IMO we are more than due. From what I can tell from Brett Anderson’s updated blog, if we don’t get any snow from this, there could be one last chance sometime in the next two weeks.

    1. Philip your right and it was on 1st of month. Where are records are kept for inland CT snowfall from that storm was
      9.1 inches which is the average for the month of March. It did not snow the rest of the month.

  81. Don’t see this as a snowstorm yet. And if it snows I wouldn’t expect 10:1 on QPF given the warmth. In any case, I still see rain. The TV mets this am were all over the place. One had rain for boston, another with Boston the R/S line and another who showed 5″ of snow for Btown.

  82. You can all hold me accountable if it snow 🙂 BTW latest SREF also show 10+ inches for eastern sections, not my forecast but there is a trend clearly in terms of snow fall

    1. Hadi,

      I’m still with you. I add it all up and I see Snow. 😀

      We’ll see.

      Of course, the caveat now is a MISS with Nothing or virtually nothing. 😀

  83. Arod, you are making good points in theory and it could very well come true. But outside of the NAM what model support do we have for rain out to 495?

  84. NWS jury will deliberate until afternoon guidance is analyzed: @NWSBoston: Given the uncertainty, we are holding off on issuing a snowfall map until late this afternoon. #SNEwx

  86. What do you want me to review John? I like snow and my kids do so I like to have it. I love summer as well but we are still in March so it can snow.

    2. Absolutely agree. I just think your overlooking the easterly wind and other things I posted. I hope it works out for you. To me it does not really matter.

  87. I think that easterly wind wind greatly reduce accumulations inside 128 down through Boston to Providence, leaving for Manchester Vt in 1 hr

  88. HM on his blog says that after this storm passes…WINTER IS OVER!

    I am not buying it…my bet is there will be one more snow event before the month ends.

      1. Henry was right when he said there would be a storm on the east coast around March 6th. I give him credit for
        that. I would not say were done seeing snow but I think this is the last chance for a sizeable snow event.

  89. I’m keeping my forecast, I believe the newest euro run comes in a tad warmer at 1:30,, hey if I need to adjust I certainly will I just have big concerns of that easterly wind plus intensity is a big issue, alot just doesn’t look right for a snowstorm 🙁

  90. Bearlb67… not sure why WordPress made that message at the bottom no matter what. Program flaw… going to move the message. 🙂

    1. This the ONLY part for which I am in agreement:

      It may actually resemble a hybrid-type tropical storm. Many times when tropical systems reach our latitude they tend to flatten out and widen their wind and precipitation fields. There will likely be an eye-like structure off the Delmarva coast later Wednesday into Thursday, yet the heaviest precipitation will likely be displaced a good distance from that “eye.”

      The center of the storm will essentially be the engine or the “heart” continually spinning heavy bands of rain and snow in a counter-clockwise fashion from well out over the Atlantic into parts of Southern New England. The rain and snow will come in waves and heavy bands, off and on for nearly two full days.

      Those snow maps are out of touch with reality, in my opinion.

      😀

  93. WBZ has a snow map up, basically 3″-6″ away from the coast out to 495; 6″+ beyond (N&W)

  94. Thinking of tossing all models and going KENT STYLE on this one…. again. Will decide after 12z ECMWF and update by 5:30PM!

    1. I know what Don Kent would say.

      He would go with his Gut and Experience and forecast a Major
      Snowstorm.

    3. Nice TK – love old school.

      You went old school too on that “arctic front” storm couple weeks back.

  95. BTW partially agree with WBZ but think they may have missed a few things…will detail that later too. Be back in a few hours!

  96. Today’s disagreements are about the MOST ever for this blog.
    We’re all over the place on this one.

    Looks like ONLY 3 of us squarely in the snow camp.
    Myself
    Hadi
    GFS (Go For Snow)

    😀

    2. Which makes this a great blog, we can agree to disagree. Most here can do that. I just think you guys seem to be underestimating other things that I pointed out. Old salty that wind will be the kiss of death for snow. Wbz has no snow for Boston.

      1. Vicki, feeling a little left out, are ya 🙂 Not touching this forecast with a ten foot pole (though I’d love to measure some snow with it!), Having a good old time reading what everyone else is posting 🙂

        1. I’m sniffling ………………… well not really but I am enjoying the reading as well. And since I’m always wrong I figure being in the snowcamp can only be a good thing for Tom 🙂

    4. Hey, I’m kind of in the snow camp too! Seeing rain along the coast, but beyond 128 – snow!

      I do have an opinion on this storm, ‘though. It’s going to be a mess!

    1. 12Z CMC “Looks” about the same. Only the classic view is ready, so can only
      see placement of low. Cannot view precipitation yet.

      A little later.

      1. 12Z FIM is rolling. Should be available after lunch. Of course,
        that’s when the BIG Euro run will be ready. 😀

        ALL eyes on the Euro!!!!

    2. As of this min I’m thinking an inch or less in Boston to Providence, north and west of 128 1-3, as soon as you go north and west of 128 is when a change to accumulating snow and treacherous conditions will be, and the 495 belt could experience 6-10 inches of cement, big differences over a small area east to west and I blame it on that easterly wind

  100. Seems the stations run from (least to most)

    7 – no accumulation until you reach about Framingham west
    4 – Cape none; 3-6 to 495 and 6+ west of 495 (as said above)
    5 – 7.7 Boston; 6.1 worcester; 7.5 marshfield (with a HUGE disclaimer that it’s based on one model and could change)

  102. I know you all like to model watch, but if you haven’t yet, take a break from what MIGHT happen and enjoy what IS happening…beauty of a day! Sun is out and feels warm. 🙂

    1. Earlier felt raw like snow. Now the sky is blue with big white clouds….you are right – lovely

      My sinuses (pressure) are driving me nuts which indicates something is coming.

  103. I’m with the snow folks on this storm but I do enjoy looking back and see who was spot on and those who are still scratching. No one has been 100% that is for sure, except of course my after-cast! Have a fun storm what ever it brings us.

  104. That makes 6 in snow camp – who is missing?

    Myself
    Hadi
    GFS (Go For Snow)
    Vicki
    Rainshine
    Merlin

    1. Hey Vicki, didn’t you sign something during the last storm saying you didn’t wish for more snow? Are you in violation of a written contract??? 🙂

      1. See my comment above. I have ulterior motives but please keep that between you and me……….mums the word!

        I actually do have a feeling it will be snow but feelings are just that!

        1. I have a feeling it will be snow, too. But no ulterior motives. I would prefer an all-rain situation.

  105. BTW, my fav. mets. (besides TK 🙂 ) are still Barry Burbank and the rest of the WBZ weather team. But I also am a big fan of Matt Noyes. In times of big storms, winter and especially summer, I always look for his opinions.

  106. Funny that I have not seen a post on FB from DT today 🙂

    Also some of the numbers thrown out on FB are just crazy, one group of kids saying 12-24 for all of SNE.

    1. HA…was going to ask about DT…open mouth, insert foot (the way it looks now anyway). Abe Lincoln said: “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”

  107. where’s “snow camp” exactly guys?

    If snow camp means logan, then I’m not in. If it means Copley, I’m in.

    I’ve got “bust camp” on my mind west of Worcester and possibly even west of 495. Not fully ready to go there yet but my camping gear is packed and ready to go!

      1. This might be one of those where it’s raining at government center and snowing at the New Balance building. We might want to tap some locals so we can ground observations Vicki.

  112. How about enough snow for a snowday at my school in Dedham, but not so much that snow removal is a pain at my house in Natick? Is that even meteorlogically possible?

  113. We only had 1 for Sandy and 1 for the blizzard–plus as an independent school, we don’t make them up!

  114. Euro looks like a long drawn out snow fall, slams us first then moderates? Am I slightly accurate, this models suck for color blind people, I’m using my 3 year old to tell me what the colors are

      1. Thanks nothing like asking my little girl to “tell daddy the colors”
        She has said before “daddies eyes are broken”

  115. WOW EURO coming in jacked up with over 2 inches QPF through 12 Z Friday in Boston, 850 temps well below zero and 2 M are decent slightly warmer than I would like but still looks mostly snow from the EURO

  120. Wow, Euro is a huge hit!

    QPF:
    1.75″ BDL-ORH-PSM
    2.00″ all of RI/MA inside 495
    2.5″ BOS/PVD and east.

    Can’t believe we are even pushing 2″ on that run here in northern CT!

    1. Really!!! SWEET!.

      Game On O.S. 😉

      I’ve been crazy again today only being able to peek here and there. Should I put my “bust” camping gear away yet?

    2. Thought so looking at Wundermap!!

      Now what are they all going to say??

      Oh, it’s going to rain along the coastal plain…. NOT!

  123. Now the big question – how much of it falls as snow? With the Euro looking cold overall at 850mb and precip totals/intensity increasing, I can see more of this coming down as snow in more areas, closer to the coast – not just the interior, higher elevations. That said, I don’t see this as an all snow event in Boston, but I think the City transitions snowier as the storm progresses and still ends up with warning level criteria snows.

    1. Mark all temps at 850 are well below zero, I am guessing 95% as snow in Boston and everywhere else.

    2. Mark only one station put out a snowfall map here in CT. It looks like northeastern CT will be the jackpot with 6-9 inches. You and I are in the 2-5 zone. This according to Gil Simmons.

  124. Ok – add me to the *Almost* all snow camp.

    We’re getting fairly close the event and most major models are agreeing on precip type here (Other than the blow torch NAM). I still think there will be rain to be had – how much? Who knows.

  125. I know I am the silent minority here, but I still say bust based on nothing more than a feeling.

  126. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    Timeline appears to be delayed a bit for the steady rain/snow, likely does not arrive until early Thursday
    Expand

    Rain/snow line still very much in question for Thursday/Friday storm, not impossible that Boston is in the snow…

  127. Hadi, I still think surface temps are a problem in Boston at least to start but agree, if you take the Euro verbatim, it is COLD and could fall mostly as snow. Still need to blend the other guidance in the forecast though.

    1. Correct surface temps are marginal which I expected but that’s at Logan, guessing a mile or two inland and its mostly snow.

  128. Each Euro run has changed lately and we still have three more runs to go before the storm starts.

      1. Not convinced yet that east of 495 is a huge snow event. Wouldn’t surprise me if rain changes to snow even in Boston but still not a big snowstorm. Worcester north and west is favored.

        1. I’ll say one thing. IF the Euro verifies, It Will Snow in
          Boston.

          Given that, this whole thing is crazy. Not sure IF
          I have ever seen a set up like this. It must be driving the Mets nuts. Look what it is doing here.

          There is still huge bust potential here, but that potential
          is a miss, not rain.

          So again, I say SNOW or NO. 😀

      2. Holy Toledo, the low is closer to the Bermuda than the benchmark, no ? 🙂 🙂 Doesn’t make sense to have that much precip thrown back that far north and west.

  132. The fact that the timing has slowed somewhat makes me a little nervous. Coastal is right, still LOTS of time for change/swings in both directions.

  134. ” before it gets out of the way for its big brother.” hahaha big brother. That’s funny TK 😀

    1. Emily – I never got a chance to congratulate you on your book! Congratulations! I will be looking for your book. You have great talent and are on your way to a great career.

  135. That precip shield is unreal, and I don’t get it either. i read that the NWS is concerned about busting similar to Feb 2010 storm so who knows. But if you take the EURO verbatim its mostly snow and a lot of it.

    1. That 2010 storm was tough to swallow. Remember how much flack PB got? He was on the defensive for weeks!

        2. Low pressure moved off southern NJ coast and went due to east instead of making the turn up north.
          This was a huge bust with a lot off egg on the meteorologists faces.

  136. Based on EURO it’s not a rain event Arod. I agree with OS that a miss if a much bigger issue vs. a hit if the EURO is correct.

    1. Hadi, Respectfully, I know what the EURO is showing. I’m not necessarily buying into it.

      1. I agree in that, as TK says, take the model as one piece and factor in real meterology.

        1. I’m looking at the Euro, GFS, SREF, CMC and FIM altogether and keep coming up with SNOW. 😀

          Not just basing it on Euro alone. Neither is HADI, I’m sure.

          2. When the blind lead the blind right? Not saying you are wrong, but the fact that there have been busts means they can all be wrong and all be right. These same models has this OTS just days ago…nothing is static in nature.

    2. Throw the models aside for now. Tell me what you think of timing of storm, tempature, ocean temperature and wind direction. Sometimes the models don’t tell the whole story. But the wind direction will always be reliable.

  137. If you like snow, then the Euro is encouraging…unless there are major shifts overnight I think we are in for a snowstorm and a big one at that. The one thing I don’t get is how mets favored the Euro all week saying precip stays south, minor impact up here and then now that the Euro is on board for snow they are not. One can only assume they are basing their forecasts on the NAM or at least were until the Euro came out.

  138. Here is my prediction. Something may or may not fall from the sky. The wind will blow. The sun will rise and set. And, we will all be here to talk about it… Ta daaaaaaaaaaah! 😉

      1. I know, right!? I would LOVE to see one of our local mets pull that off. It. Would. Be. Amazing.

  142. And I am sure I have not seen OS or anyone of us put out a forecast yet 🙂 so to say what we are saying is wrong is not correct, bc I think all we have done today is report out the data for everyone to see. So please enough with the right and wrong, all I have posted today was the model runs. I am still not sure how this is going to play out yet.

    1. You kind of did. You both agree on a big snow storm and totally discounting a rain event. It’s not about I told you so or right and wrong. Your doing a good job. But I remember tk saying this winter don’t always rely on just model’s.

      2. I agree John it’s not about models, but this is very complex situation. It’s not a cut and dry issue.

  144. WOW!! This blog gets a little excited when storms come around. Look I live on the coast and I like what I’m seeing on the models in terms of snow. But in all honesty I won’t know what precip I’m getting until it starts. So everyone has their opinion let it be. Nothing we can do about it anyways. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

  145. This is UNCONFIRMED but a meteorologist on the American Weather forum just posted that the Euro snow map shows:

    -A foot everywhere east of 395/ORH area to CHH
    -18″+ for all of RI up to BOS and back to 495 and down to the canal
    -Bullseye of 2 feet just SW of BOS

    I wouldn’t get your hopes up on those verifying, even if indeed that is what the model is showing. Seems nuts!

      1. JJ, I don’t have pro. Reading this on another forum. Totals are much less for most of CT.

        Also, I am assuming those calculated snow map totals are based on a 10:1 ratio which will not be achieved in many areas.

        1. I think the elevated areas of CT might reach warning level criteria. Shoreline hardly anything and the valley
          locations maybe 2 or 3 inches.

        1. That’s what’s so encouraging :). No convective feedback like NAM or the equivalent which seemed to be going on with the GFS yesterday

  147. Ready for whatever happens.

    4wd check
    Snowblower check
    Umbrella check
    Batteries, flashlights and food check

    Sanity (not sure about that one)

  148. I have not posted my official forecast. I actually hardly ever do that. If I don’t do it, then I can’t be wrong.

    However, in this instance, Even though I have not posted a forecast, I am on record
    as saying it will be a snowstorm and I do stand by that. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

    😀

    2. Interesting for those who keep talking about Easterly winds:

      * WINDS…NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

      * TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 30S.

      This is for the SE section of NH, not all that far from Boston.
      😀

      1. And that is from the NWS. It’s not like they have ever posted incorrect information before, lol.

            1. When it comes to the Taunton NWS, anything they say needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

              Agreed on this. It doesn’t mean anything.

              1. Oops. That came from the Gray, ME office, which usually is pretty good. Oh well. We’ll see.

                I think 6-10 is under done, even with wet snow. 😀

  153. Some things to think about when it comes to snow accumulations from this upcoming storm, some mentioned above-
    We are in March now!
    This will be a long duration event.
    Intensity probably won’t be very impressive given the low pressure will be well south of the benchmark.
    Not a lot of cold air to work with.
    Onshore flow for awhile.
    Elevated areas and areas away from the coastline will receive the highest snow amounts.

  156. NWS has issued a STORM WATCH:
    (this is equivalent to a Whole Gale warning OR winds of 55–63 mph)

    …STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING…

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
    AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

    1. And as much as we don’t need it on our coast, they really don’t need it.

      Tom – I’m standing on the wall at Brant Rock……….I have my fan but I need your boat!!!

        1. Ok – we’ll wait for you…..I think Tom has crawled into bed and pull the covers over his head ….. I’m sending out a search party as I write

    1. Actually, that map doesn’t look too bad.

      I sense a bit low for Boston, but we’ll see.

      😀

  161. Hey, Is it just I, OR does the 18Z NAM appear to be coming quite a bit
    Farther North?

    Also, 850MB temps, 1000-500mb thickness look great so far

    AND, 2M temps are very close to freezing as 0C line is “just” a bit to the North
    of Boston.

    EVEN the NAM is looking better.

    Now what?

          1. The GFS through the 0C line back to the bershires as well during our last storm and we all discounted it. I think the NAM has the right idea with 0C line.

  166. So Far, 18Z NAM wants to dump 20-24 inches on Central MA.
    Sharp gradient towards the coast.

  167. We could shave off some inches to that 20-24 inches since its the NAM. This is heavy wet snow so this is not good and several inches of heavy wet snow we got to start talking power issues that combined with gusty winds.

  168. They got a decent snowpack here at the visitors center off 91 in southern vt, therrs about 6-8 inches here,haven’t had time to look at models

  169. Something is NOT right with the NAM and it’s 850mb 0C line.
    While that line is in Western MA, the SNOW totals keep increasing in Eastern MA.

    Hadi, take a look at the surface/850mb temp map and then look at the snow map
    for various hours and see IF you see what I see.

    This is MESSED UP for sure.

    The 0C line may be out west, but the model thinks its cold enough for snow and
    keeps piling it up. 😀

  173. Looks like we’ll get precipitation, and certainly lots of wind, but I don’t see much snow at all at the coast. Yes, we will see flakes flying and then melting (mostly) on impact with the ground. Could be some slush, maybe even an inch or two of slush, but I really do not see anything more than that in town. In the burbs, different story, and certainly in the hills an even snowier scenario. Does anyone see the temperature in Boston going below freezing between now and Saturday night? I am wondering where the models (e.g., Euro) are getting the cold air from. It’s not coming from southern Quebec, that’s for sure, and not to our west, either. Dynamic cooling, perhaps, but the storm is going to be fairly far away and not producing snow with enough intensity for cooling (am I seeing this wrong?).

    1. Sounds like the Feb 9 storm at the coast with the exception (thankfully) of the astronomically high tides. Although with the damage they got then it may not make a difference. I sure hope I’m wrong.

      1. You’re right about the similarity with respect to wind. Big difference, however, is the temperature. The February 9 storm was really quite cold and did not have much in terms of moisture. This one may be packed with moisture (perhaps more than 1.5qpf), but is a `warmer’ storm for sure.

  175. Not buying the NAM projection. It seems to be putting Providence in the foot or more category. I cannot see that happening. I was in Providence the last couple of days. It’s been consistently at least 2, and often 3-4 degrees warmer than Boston with the same N/NE flow. Unless the storm is retrograding – which isn’t apparent – Providence (though technically more `inland’ than Boston) will get more rain than Boston, not more snow.

  176. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    NWS Boston to issues winter storm watches for parts of Southern New England very soon…valid Wed night through Friday AM

  179. To Market Basket! I’ll need a dozen loaves of bread…hmmm…10 gallons of milk…maybe 6 dozen eggs…did I miss anything? 🙂

      1. HAHA…yeah my wife would love that. 🙂 Well snow or not at least it looks like a nice weekend and some 50 degree days ahead. Snow won’t last long!

  180. I am sticking with my call for significant snow, each of us see it in a different light. I am not buying 850 temps on NAM. Blend the NAM/EURO/GFS and you get easily 6+ in many different locations in SNE. If I am wrong I am wrong!

  181. Keep in mind bulk of snow will be Thursday and temps will have gotten colder as we get through tomorrow IMHO

  182. 18NAM critical thicknesses don’t start to flirt with Boston sometime between 12z and 18z Thursday after 1″ + qpf comes down. Thicknesses until then are Plymouth and south.

  183. Wow…..finally getting a chance to get on the blog today and certainly enjoyed all of the posts. Not sure which camp I am in yet but probably the rain camp. Only reason I say this is because I proactively made arrangements to stay in Burlington tomorrow night since I have an ATM install in that area on Thursday. Had I been making the trip from Plymouth then it would be all snow. So to all of the rain wishercasters….you’re welcome. 🙂

    1. I am right in that area. If you need a place to store the money I’m happy to oblige. 🙂

        1. Just let me know! I’ll pull up in my unmarked windowless van to take the transfer 🙂

    1. Maybe not this time Mark because most of the models are showing that amount of qpf too. It’s just a matter of where. Maybe they’re all wrong? I don’t know.

      1. Euro is not showing that much QPF outside of eastern MA.

        Also, that snow map is likely calculated using a higher ratio than will actually occur.

        NWS isn’t buying it with the snow map they just put out.

        1. I agree with what you’re saying. I guess I’m still tatoo’d with convective feedback from that 70″ snow map from the blizzard.

  186. Too much precip on NAM, once again blend it with EURO and you can see the snow amounts being thrown out.

  188. As pertains to the weather, I am not a happy camper !

    I dont want to see everyone tank a forecast, but I really hope this busts !

      1. Good to be part of the team ! This is not off of what I see on the models, its that I dont want more snow, more wind damage, more coastal flooding, more school cancellations !!

    2. Tom – I am enjoying reading the scenarios but in my heart I totally agree with you and I suspect many here do as well. I don’t think anyone along the coast from MA down to NJ and beyond want this to pan out.

    1. LOL….I just posted above…it was a crazy day and finally got on this afternoon. Thanks for missing me!!

  192. The snow maps for WBZ and wcvb are up. Laughing at the differences. This is becoming more ridiculous by the minute. Sorry to sound so negative.

    1. I watched Chris at 4:00 and am recording 4 and 5 now. Will be interested in their discussions.

  193. At this point its a blend of QPF, biggest question will be the temps and I think it will hold up fine in Boston and N/W

  198. Just read BaileyMan’s comment on the BZ blog. He feels this could be a historic storm but does also have bust potential. Going to be a couple of intersting days for sure.

  199. The three network mets seem to be on the same track as lunchtime although 5 has come down some in its numbers. 5 still has the most and 4 and 7 are just about the same with areas differing by a few inches (which I don’t really count as a difference) but 7 on the lower end.

    All agree – and I think it’s important to note since we have members along the coast – that it will be devastating to our coastline. Snow or no snow, it seems that is a given.

  200. I’m going slide the R/S line a bit further east based on the latest indications. I still feel the heaviest of the snow will fall west of 495 but a few inches is looking more likely even in Boston with greater amounts the further north and west you travel. Temps throughout the column are going to be ever so fragile.

      1. Logan will be a very tough call. I’m not guaranteeing a few inches in the city. Yet, it’s possible.

    1. Ch 7 isn’t either. We are even in the 4 inch area. Although a wet 2 inches did tremendous damage in the Halloween storm

        2. I think you make it but just wondering if residual delays might mess with the schedule.

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