65 thoughts on “Visible Satellite Loop”

  1. Hi all! I love those SAT pics. Reminds me of Satellite & Radar class back in college.

    I’ll be posting a longer forecast update a bit later today for the week ahead, as I do every Sunday. And the models have been a pain for the last couple of days, but this is not unexpected. However, I think I’m figuring out the timing of the late-week system finally, and this is banking on the fact that initially the energy is going to stay to the south (Thursday), and a second storm is going to finally make it up this way (Friday-Saturday), for a stormy start to April. The jury is out on p-type.

  2. I am thinking Friday as well TK. I do think rain for the most part in the Boston area. The 0z euro sure shows a strong storm.

    Also looking at my Florida forecast it looks pretty decent after Friday? Would you agree.

    1. I agree. That’s one thing that hasn’t changed, only been refined. Looked like you’d have to deal with a frontal passage, and it looks like it’ll be right on Friday. Dry after that, and it may get quite warm, alot like the past couple days. Did you see Orlando at 93 yesterday? It usually doesn’t make 93 in the middle of summer in much of Florida (upper 80s far more common).

  3. I saw very warm temps as well there low 90’s for a couple days!! Bring it on:)
    The front passage looks like it moves through on Friday and then clear sailing the rest of the week. Love the satellite views of the lakes. There is nice one of lake Erie that is posted by buffalo NWS as well.

  4. How well do models pick up on the fact that these types of storms are favorable of producing their own cold air? And are any of them showing this?

    1. They do fine at showing a situation where the cold-air manufacturing occurs. This is where meteorology becomes as much an art as a science. You have to visualize what is going on in the atmosphere. We may very well be setting this up for such a scenario. Days away…but the signs are there.

      In general, I don’t get upset if it doesn’t snow. Sometimes we get it, sometimes we don’t. But I will admit this: I would LOVE to fire off one more significant storm this “snow season”. A parting shot.

  5. Hadi I hope the weather is good for you in Florida. I was down there in February and it was near 80 with plenty of sunshine and no humidity. At least the strong March sun is helping today becuase if this was January this would be a real cold day. As for the late week storm potential still going with the thinking of more wet than white and if there is any wintry precipitation it would be in the elevated areas of SNE. The northern mountains I think have a good shot at an accumulating snow event.

  6. It’ll be interesting to see how the NAM handles this storm, remember last storm with the GFS, the NAM blew it away from the start.

    1. Hadi I really felt that wind today and were in spring and still talking about what the wind chill is.

  8. I am looking forward to seeing how the end of week storm plays out. If I have my dates correct (and I may be off a few days), we had a major storm in this area 27 years ago tomorrow (1984). Heavy and wet with a lot of power outages including most of Framingham. We lost power for four days which is anything but typical. I drove my neighbors nuts because I actually do not mind losing power and I had a two week old (which is why it’s easy for me to remember the year)

    When all of you and Joe mention NW for snow at the end of the week, can I assume you mean much further west than Framingham? I would not mind one more good snow storm before the season turns to the thunder storms!

    1. You’re referring to the Thursday March 29 1984 snowstorm. I had a solid foot of heavy wet snow in Woburn during that storm, most of it falling in 6 hours. That storm was noteable in my memory for 3 reasons: 1) Sitting in school (yes we had school that day but luckily I was only about 1/4 mile from home) and seeing CG lightning strikes during the storm. There were several lightning strikes on homes that day. 2) Walking home from school and being able to lean about 45 degrees into the wind and not fall over. 3) My dog (who was a husky / lab mix) being so excited she took off running through the snow, and even tho she always came back I was nervous about her getting lost… I should have known better. My friend and I tried to follow her tracks in the snow but they were just getting covered over by heavy, wind blown snow. And when we got back home, there she was, sitting on the back stairway as if to say “where have you been? I’ve been waiting for you!”

      1. That’s it TK – I knew my son was either side of two weeks old and I do remember it was a Thursday – thanks for reminding me. I remember the lightning but most of all the sound of the tree limbs cracking as they broke. That was the sad part. It was so loud it sounded like gunshots. I really do enjoy losing power which may sound a bit odd but I also like basics 🙂

        And on that note, as I write, I can see my neighbor putting his snow blower away for the season. To me it’s kind of like not having an umbrella so maybe Mother Nature will want to show him what she still has in store!

          1. hahahahaha – well, I also had my husband (who is not a snow lover) put all winter boots away last week in the attic. He has been married to me to know I asked because I was hoping to bring on another storm but was nice enough to humor me!

  9. Hadi – one of the members of the blog we started as a spin-off from conversation nation when it began to fall apart headed for Disneyworld yesterday. He said it was already 86 and beautiful there mid-morning.

  10. I would not rule out snow for the Boston area on Friday. The April 1, 1997 snowstorm was forecasted to be all rain throughout SNE as late as Sunday afternoon. IIRC Barry was the only met to pick up on the snow possibility during his Sunday 11:00 pm newscast and others finally concurred come that Monday morning. The rain changed to snow 5 hours earlier than even Barry had thought so accumulations ended up being even higher. Barry’s snowfall map was 12-18″ for Boston, but we all know what the final total was (25.4″). Did any location end up with 30″+??

    I am looking forward to TK’s thoughts later today, but IMO as long as this storm is projected to basically remain south of the SNE coastline snow could actually be the “more likely” scenario.

    1. philip,
      the 00z GFS had a upper level low traveling up the lakes, with the surface low going south of us, would not be an ideal situation for widespread snow.

      the 00z EURO has the low going right through SNE, again would not be ideal for snow.

      the NAM is still out of reach.

      Of course we are days out, and with that -NAO in place, surprises may erupt.

      1. Your last statement speaks volumes…”surprises” are almost always a factor regarding springtime storms. As I mentioned, the April 1997 storm is the perfect example. The only spring snow that was forecast “days” in advance IIRC was the April 6-7, 1982 storm.

    2. The April Fools Day storm gave me 30 inches of snow in Woburn, my 2nd biggest single storm snowfall behind the Blizzard of ’78 (44 inches).

      1. TK, very surprised at that 44 inch total from your area…I always thought those “higher” amounts were mostly south of Boston…WOW! :-0

        1. There were 2 mesoscale snowbands NW of Boston in that storm. The jackpot amounts around Lincoln RI (51-55 inches) were unofficial obs. “Official” obs were lacking at that time. There was a small network of them gathered by the state climatologist, who I worked with for years and still keep in touch with since he retired. In fact, I may be taking over for him soon… Believe me, there were a couple belts of 35-45 inch snow amounts in Essex & Middlesex Counties that you will never see plotted on the media’s snow maps or even in Paul Kocin’s NE Snowstorms book. They do appear in the State Climatologists SnowBook which used to be an annual collection produced by the company I worked for, under his direction.

  12. Hadi, I hope you plan to leave for Forida before Friday. It would be a shame having to be stuck at Logan with your flight cancelled or delayed. From what Joe says on his blog, this could be a very significant storm. As cold as it has been lately, I will take this over low 90’s any day. I have “issues” just around here with temps above 85. Jimmy’s weather seems more reasonable in terms of “comfort”.

    Anyway, have a good time in Florida! 🙂

  13. I usually don’t feel this way, but I think someone is going to see a lot of snow NW of Boston. I have to admit it is more of a gut feeling because I am looking at all of the same information you are and it is not showing it yet. There is just something about this set up, and as Scott has been mentioning the manufacturing of its own cold air.

    1. Alot of the big spring snows don’t “show up” on the models even up to a couple days before the event… 🙂

  14. The biggest snowfall I’ve seen at my town was around 35″ during the blizzard of ’05. The drifts were like 5 feet deep.

  15. Boston has yet to have a 30-inch snowfall. The closest is 27.5″ for the President’s Day storm in 2003, but that total is still debatable as far as I know due to measuring issues at Logan. For me, the 27.1″ for the Blizzard of ’78 is the true standard.

    I would really like to see 30″ in Boston during my lifetime.

    1. The measurements were indeed taken differently and also about 1 mile away from the original location in 2003 vs 1978. The Blizzard of ’78 probably had more actual snowfall than the President’s Day Storm, but it didn’t go into the record books that way.

  16. I was looking at an old weather book I have by David Ludlum and from what I can tell, 3+ feet snowfalls were quite common around the Boston area during Colonial times. I imagine rain-snow lines never made it up much further than Nantucket in those days…lol. Very amazing how those colonists survived.

  17. I dont think today’s 12z run of the EURO is going to do anything to help clarify the end of next week. Seems like there’s little consistency with today’s 0z run. I thought only the GFS was that confused :). Anyhow, enjoying the discussion going on above…..Beautiful day out there, I love these 100% sunshiny days.

    1. It was apparent yesterday that the Euro was going to have issues too, at least from what I was seeing. The fact that the Friday storm was there over a week ago, before the models were having transitional issues, worries me.

      1. When the EURO sees something or trends something way in advance of the other models, does it usually have a good track record of happening ? I must admit, the websites I look at, only have the EURO going out around 4-5 days. I dont have much experience looking at the EURO out much further than that.

        1. The Euro’s surface pattern does not match its upper air pattern very well. This is a clear sign of model “confusion”. I’m glad the potential event is 5 days away, let me put it that way.

          1. Interesting. It will be fun the early to middle part of this week watching a potential system evolve and of course, the models take on it.

  18. I’m just glad we can speculate on this stuff without being trolled to death. Poor Joe explained the speculation part of the forecast very nicely in the 2nd paragraph of his blog and “Brian Hackett” still continues to be relentless. What a shame CBS made them go to that open blog format.

    If I end up with enough people here I may switch it to a log-in format like the old WBZ blog, for the sake of making it harder for the trolls to get on. Not happening just yet but possible in the not too distant future.

  19. Agreed, 100%………I enjoy the speculation. As an example, we’re off to Maryland in 3 weeks and I’m already trying to put out a guess as to what type of pattern might be in place then.

  20. So both the GFS and EURO are showing a faster and less phasing pattern with their 12z runs.
    With the la nina weaking, and the fact that we just transitioned from +NAO to -NAO, could result in model mayhem.
    Should be an interesting week, especially when you throw the NAM into the equation.

  21. I love the fact that we can speculate, bc that’s what most weather is about. The fact that the Euro and GFS spit out different scenarios is telling.

    Thanks for the well wishes on my Florida trip. Looks like a strong front moves through on Friday in Florida and then looks nice after. I rather not have 90 plus degrees either but will take it about right now:)

  22. Just got in from a shopping outing, and really love the chilly, bright early evening! Saw a spectacular sight in the sky, 13 hawks, circling together, drifting slowly to the northwest. Never saw more than 3 together before!

    1. TK we have turkey vultures every year that circle in groups larger than most hawk groups I’ve seen. I haven’t seen them yet this year though so maybe it wasn’t turkey Amazing how something that is pretty ugly up close can look so beautiful gliding through the sky

  23. TK, how much snow did your area (Woburn) get during the President’s Day storm?

    Perhaps it might be a much better indication of how much snow actually fell in E MA.

    1. I have to double check, but I believe I had 19.5 inches out of that. There was an intense meso-band feature along the coast, giving Boston its much higher total.

      1. Thanks TK, just as I suspected. I seem to remember Todd Gross on-air mentioning that there was an average of 18-20″ throughout the greater Boston area and most of E MA, then there were rumors about an “investigation” regarding Logan’s measurements. To the best of my knowledge to this day, the final total at Logan (27.5″) still has an “asterick” so to speak. 😉

        1. It probably always will. I knew the observer who took that measurement and he had to follow the “new” techniques, which included brushing off more often.

  24. Tim Kelley of NECN mentioned this and a check of the internet provided a second confirmation…….ice out on Lake Winnipesaukee last year was……..March 24th !!!!! Crazy !! Different year, different late spring pattern, who knows how long the ice will last this year.

    1. Hi Hadi.

      At about 3 or 4pm today, it was 91F in Orlando…I dont know if the high temp made it any higher. Have a great trip !!

      That was an interesting run (18z GFS). We shall see what tomorrow’s intepretation the GFS has 🙂

  26. Thx SST!! Very warm indeed for sure.

    Keep in the mind that I do not much stock in the 18Z GFS, but I guess we can shall what future runs have. I bet that I am gone thus a major storm will occur:).

    1. LOL !! Of course, that is murphy’s law (weather version). I was in St Augustine, FL and missed the 2003 President’s Day snowstorm.

  27. LOL the BZ Troll strikes again. I love how this clown tells people they have no life, or tells them to get a life, while he spends most of the day and evening, 7 days a week, attempting to terrorize a blog.

    We really need to make sure we do nothing except hit “report comment” on this person. I know how tempting it is to say something back to him…but we have to try not to. The more attention you give this type of person, the more they crave.

    1. TK, one of the good things I remember about the “old” WBZ website was that the mets including Terry would every now and then post a good old fashioned “talking to” regarding behavior on the blogs and that hurtful comments would NOT be tolerated, etc. I thought those “reminders” were a good wake-up call for those trolls. However, since the “present” website started last fall I can’t recall any such “reminders”. I guess “management” decided to have the bloggers “police” themselves or whatever. Also the “old” website did not allow for imposters. It’s no wonder the trolls are having their way (at least somewhat more than last year).

      Anyway I am glad that we have this website as a refuge from the trolls…thanks TK. 🙂

      1. I remember not long ago, Todd responded to such a query about policing the blog with the fact that they are “not allowed” to police the blog. I’m sure this is the work of CBS, and not WBZ. It’s really a shame.

  28. Hi TK- was just wondering if you will be putting out the forcast for the week ahead. I would love to hear your feedback on Fridays storm. From reading other posts it sounds like the models may not be on the same page. It sounds like seeing all those hawks was a cool and rare thing. Hope you had a nice weekend TK, thank’s.

    1. I’ll be putting that update out around 10PM, but I can tell you now that I’m not going to go into much detail on the storm threat yet. Too many uncertainties at this stage.

      1. TK I don’t blame you for not going into much detail at this time. At present there are totally different extended forecasts from the 3 stations and NWS. Of course I like Barry’s the best since that one looks to have more potential for snow. 🙂

        1. It will be interesting, as always, to read Barry’s thoughts tonight. I wonder if any of today’s information will have altered his thoughts from yesterday.

        2. I usually do my week ahead forecasts by mid evening and more often than not Barry & I come up with similar solutions. It’s that U Lowell background. 🙂

      2. Thank’s TK I was just wondering on the forcast as I head back to work midweek and work outside.

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