Oh Snow!

942 Comments

5:55PM

A disclaimer off the top: This forecast is still a low to medium confidence one as of late Tuesday afternoon because of the factors going into the amount of precipitation and the placement and movement of a rain/snow line regarding the upcoming storm. I will be monitoring the situation and issuing updates as often as needed.

** Update issued at 7:25AM Wednesday **

A major storm coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday will track pretty far south to southeast of New England (in terms of the center), but it is such a large circulation that it will impact all of southern New England with precipitation including some significant snow. The greatest impact from this event will likely be wind and tide related, along with tree and power line damage where the heaviest snow falls, as it will be on the heavy/wet side due to marginal temperatures.

The break-down…

TIMING: 3-day event, starting Wednesday as clouds thicken and winds increase from the east to northeast. Precipitation arrives Wednesday night and is likely rain at the coast and a mix inland. Heaviest precipitation occurs Thursday and Thursday evening in the form of mostly snow inland and mix transitioning to snow at the coast, lastly over Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation lingers into Friday morning and may go to mix/rain coast and just inland as it lightens up but will probably remain as mix/snow further inland.

WIND: Winds start out east to northeast during the day Wednesday and become mostly northeast Wednesday night then shift to mostly northerly Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. Strongest winds take place during the day Thursday but they will be pretty strong from Wednesday night through the early hours of Friday. Peak gusts will be over 55 MPH across Cape Cod and the Islands, 45-55 MPH in the remainder of coastal RI, MA, and NH, and 35-45 MPH over inland areas except 45-55 MPH in some higher elevations.

TIDES: Moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion will be most prevalent 2 hours before through 2 hours after the high tides especially Thursday through early Friday along east-facing and especially north-facing shores. Scituate and Sandwich MA may see some of the worst of the flooding.

SNOW: This is subject to change because of the difficulty in forecasting positioning and movement of rain/snow lines, but a first guess…0-2 inches Cape Cod & Islands from east to west, least on the outer Cape & Nantucket, 2-4 inches remainder of eastern MA to the east of I-95 including the immediate coast of NH and coastal RI with up to 5 inches in some higher elevations, 4-8 inches near and west of I-95 with 8+ inches possible in higher elevations. This snow will be occurring over a fairly long period of time, so it may limit road impact to some extent, though expect difficult travel in areas of heavier snow that occur.

POWER OUTAGES: These possible from heavy wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines, especially where 4 or more inches of snow falls. They may also occur due to wind damage especially in coastal areas.

After the storm…

Forget the significant warm-up for the weekend as a north to northwest flow will dominate Saturday and be reinforced Sunday, keeping it in the 40s for daytime highs (though sunshine at times, especially Saturday afternoon & Sunday morning will feel nice).

More unsettled weather arrives early next week but not looking like a big storm at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain or drizzle possible during the morning and again late in the day. Highs around 40. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH gusting around or over 30 MPH mid afternoon on especially near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain to mix coast, mix to snow inland. Lows in the 30s. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH coast with stronger gusts (see above).

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow inland, mix to snow coast. Most of the accumulation of snow takes place during this period (see above). Temperatures holding in the 30s, coldest inland. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts (see above).

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lighter precipitation – snow to mix inland, mix/rain coast with little additional snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-30 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 31. High 45.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 32. High 42.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 38. High 49.

942 thoughts on “Oh Snow!”

  3. Thanks TK!

    What’s e everyone’s take on conditions at Logan and Newark airports on Friday morning. Will my flights from Boston -> Newark and Newark-> Saint Thomas potentially have issues from this storm?

    Thanks in advance!

    3. From Matt Noyes:

      For those wondering about travel to and from Logan Airport the rest of this week – biggest travel trouble Wednesday will be at Dulles Airport, Reagan, Baltimore-Washington, and by late day, Philadelphia. Boston should be good all day and evening. Overnight Wednesday night I suppose some airlines may cancel flights, but given the wet nature of the snow and temperatures near the melting point, I expect Logan to handle operations fine. Thursday, will continue falling, becoming very wet in nature and likely changing to rain over the course of the day, but with temperatures above the melting point, it shouldn’t make much difference – runways should be fine.

  4. I have a feeling some tweaks and possibly significant ones may be needed in parts of this forecast area.

  5. Thanks TK. I notice you said moderate coastal flooding and sure hope you are right. My concern is that with the normal barriers stripped after feb 9 that there will be less resistance to the ocean.

  6. That R/S line looks to set shop around the I 95 corridor. Still feel heaviest snow occurs in the 495 belt! I hope I’m wrong and that immediate southwest suburbs of boston gets in on the action:)

    1. I’m in Westwood which is a tad outside of 95. I’m figuring a few to several inches of snow + for my area.

  8. I could see a scenario where I lower amounts at the immediate shore if the wind has any easterly component whatsoever, and increase amounts in the higher elevations SW of Boston. Remains to be seen if this plays out.

      1. That’s been my concern for a long the coast. Easterly winds and a marine layer that dynamic cooling will not be able to overcome. That’s where I think the bust comes in. Not an OTS bust, rather a R vs S bust.

    2. It is to be easterly is that correct. This is why I’m holding ground on Boston not getting much snow, more rain. Will you possibly be lowering in Boston because of this. I’m not buying into heavy snow for Boston. Most here can respect my opinion just like I respect there decission. I may be wrong. I’m banking most of my call on the wind direction. We have seen many storms go bad no matter what the models say due to wind direction.

    1. Winds are initially east and then turn ENE and then eventually NE and finally N. If winds remain predominantly from the E and ENE along the coast, the marine layer will be too warm for dynamic cooling to occur. Of course inland areas can see a northerly wind direction while the coast sees more of an easterly direction.

  10. I have a feeling TK will end upping his numbers 🙂 I am not backing down from the 6+ i believe will occur.

    1. Keep in mind that while inland areas can experience a NNE wind locking in the colder air, the coast can be experiencing ENE winds. Huge difference!

      1. I absolutely agree. I believe north of Boston will be a different story with accumulation of snow. Just thinking the wind will mess things up all along the coast.

  11. Inland areas so mainly snow. I’m concerned about the coast. That’s where the bust potential lies. A miss is less likely than primarily rain event for Boston.

    1. Again I agree. Miss to me has never been off the table more rain vs snow. I believe when all is said and done the wind is the big thing for Boston and all along the coast.

  13. I agree the bust potential is right along the coast. But looking at critical thickness it depicts snow for a long period of time. I guess we shall see.

  14. Geez I guess I’m gonna have to adjust but I’m gonna wait to adjust until tonight’s runs, I just think something’s off, but kudos to who saw the big snow coming hadi and os, if it happens, still lots to know, I’m not completely bought in just yet, if these model runs continue to trend colder then I’ll adjust

  18. From NWS this afternoon

    NOW/RAIN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS REMAIN A LOW-
    MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A
    BALANCE BETWEEN STORM TRACK /A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF 100 SM MAY
    MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE/ AND WHETHER DYNAMIC COOLING CAN OVERCOME
    THE WARMER MARINE INFLUENCED AIR. AT THIS POINT…THE HIGHEST
    CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW…THANKS PRIMARILY TO WHAT LOOKS
    LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC COOLING APPEARS TO BE FROM SRN RI/SE
    CT NE INTO SE NH INCLUDING THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

    1. It’s very possible their higher #’s bust big time if they miss on this D.C. scenario.

  19. The storm (center) IS going out to sea, WW. 🙂 It’s just a giant circulation, so we get it anyway. 😛

    1. Dude, I got multiple fans going on the west side…blowing it all to you easties. 🙂

  21. Anything higher than 40 degrees (slightly north of northeast) for wind direction and it’s going to be really hard to pile snow up within 8 miles of the coast in eastern MA. Speaking of compass degrees, not temperature. 🙂

  24. I know 1 thing it appears it’s gonna be mild so whoever does get snow it melts fairly quick, I’m stick concerned about that easterly wind, anyone within 10 miles of coast could start as a quick burst but then change to rain

      1. The wind is a big fly in the ointment as far as I’m concerned, more so than potential snow along the coast.

    3. Charlie we are still 100% cover where snow wasn’t touched. Where it was touched we either have piles or bare ground.

  25. 15ZSREF 10M winds for 10PM Wed:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030515/SREF_wind_vector_10m_f036.gif

    1AM Thurs

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030515/SREF_wind_vector_10m_f039.gif

    7AM Thurs

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030515/SREF_wind_vector_10m_f045.gif

    7AM Friday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030515/SREF_wind_vector_10m_f069.gif

    Sorry all, but Where are the Easterly Winds. Later I’ll post from 21Z SREF.

    😀

    1. Looks to me by 1AM Thursday Wind at the coast has backed to about 40 degrees or a bit less. Even Tk said 40 degrees. By 7AM it looks to be 25 or 30 degrees.

      In short, we’re in good shape. 😀

      1. Btw, even the 18Z GFS with LESS qpf yet, has Boston in at
        just under a foot of snow. 😀

  26. I’m with Hadi, this is primarily a snow event. I will concede that there may be
    some rain/mix at the outset, but it will go over to snow rather quickly. 😀

        1. Hmm, I’m surprised. That map isn’t too bad either.
          “may” be a little under done, but not too bad for a first map.

          1. I don’t eat ANY seafood. I can’t stomach it. Not in the least. Just the smell of seafood makes me want to vomit. 😀

      2. I thought you liked Channel 5. When you see something you don’t like, then they’re no good any more? 😀 😀 😀

        2. Me as well, so steak will do. And I do like channel 5. But in this case I’m going solo. Where is Harvey and Pete as well. Listen I hope it works out for you, I do. I’m banking my call on the wind direction, time of storm, ocean tempature and the high and low daily tempature. The debates we have are great always respectful to each other, not like some here. So we can agree to disagree. You say Boston snow I say rain.

            2. Oh dear. I’m still adjusting to old salty not liking seafood. I always pictured him as the fisherman guarding Gloucester harbor and now I have to picture Sarah Palin. Wayyyy to much for me to handle 😉

          2. Yup, that about sums it up John.

            Some current Water temps:

            Buoy 16 Miles East of Boston: Water Temperature: 40.3 °F (4.6 °C)

            Stellwagen Bank: Water Temperature: 40.1 °F (4.5 °C)

            I’d certainly like to see these a little bit lower.

            I think that they are Marginally OK. We’ll see.

    1. More of a chance of a rain bustorama than a missorama for folks east of 495 and especially 95.

  31. From what I am seeing, not sure the snow lovers on here will love the rain coming Monday and Tuesday after a good dumping of wet snow. That’s never good, although it doesn’t look like anything major.

    1. THAT WILL BE SNOW TOO. MWWHAHAHAHA

      Kidding. I actually prefer a good rain after a snow storm. Helps clear the salt and gross-ness off the roads and sidewalks.

      Unless of course its on top of a giant snowpack and does nothing but cause flooding. That I do NOT like.

      1. I guess that was my concern…on the roof especially. I know it’s not the middle of winter when you have to worry about re-freeze and stuff, but weight is weight. Hopefully Sat and Sun will put a beatdown on it.

    2. Nah, we all pretty much agree that after this storm, Winter is cooked anyway.
      SO who cares. Let the rain and warmth come.

      I need this one to come in big to hit on my season snow total prediction. 😀

      2. A lot of people said that after the last storm and look at what is happening…not sure when I’ll feel safe.

  32. This is interesting from NWS office in Taunton: They have really come around from
    their earlier thinking.

    .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/…
    * STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND *

    IMPACTS…

    * POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW.
    * STRONG GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY S COASTAL LOCATIONS.
    * POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER MULTIPLE HIGH TIDES.
    * STORM FORCE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.

    SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW…
    MODELS ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THE DEEPENING LOW
    PRES WILL MOVE OUT FROM NEAR THE DELMARVA AND PASS GENERALLY SE OF
    THE CLASSIC BENCHMARK INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER…GIVEN STRONG
    BLOCKING HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND…MUCH OF THE BEST
    DEFORMATION AND LLJ SUPPORT ARE WELL N OF THE STORM
    CENTER…LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACT OVER SRN NEW
    ENGLAND.

  34. John… Give me the time of the post you want me to respond to. I was just on the road for an hour and this place has been collecting comments at a rapid rate so it’s hard to find anything. 🙂

  35. I’m worried about the wind, but I think the snow projections are going to bust big time……..

    Why ….

    Yes, at 850mb, its plenty cold to snow. However, the airmass at the surface in place now is relatively mild. Obviously, heavy enough precip could do the trick, however should one really believe that a storm that far south can continually provide a large heavy shield of precip to continue hour after hour after hour ….. Every time the intensity slackens a bit, there’s a decent shot it mixes or rains.

    You can almost see this in the precip totals over time. It doesnt seem like we get 1.5 inches in a 12 hr period, but more like .75 every 12 hrs. That doesnt sound like continuously heavy precip.

    Add in that the first 1/2 of the storm is during the daylight hrs of Thursday and the whole wind direction described above and I think what actually accumulates on the ground is going to be far less than is either expected or falling out of the sky.

    But the wind, worried about the power outages.

    1. Excellent post buddy. I don’t see how it could myself. The wind again will be the big story in my oppinion.

      1. Thanks John and we’ll see what happens. If I wake up Thursday and there’s 5 inches with furious snow, it’ll be more humble weather pie. 🙂

            1. Vicki’s attempt to take your mind off the storm. Is it typical to start kindergarteners greater than and less than and equal to symbols? And my daughters first comment when I said it looks like its going to be tough on the coast was “tom must be very upset”

              1. Wow, that seems very early. You mean these symbols … =. I do know early elementary gets into ordering and a bit of comparing, but usually the inequality signs above are more towards late elementary or early middle school.

                2. That’s what we thought but my grandson who is in an inclusion class is learning the symbols in that Allie the alligator – and he holds his hands like a greater than – eats the lesser numbers. Yikes

  36. TK…regarding your comments above that whatever happens in DC will probably happen here. Since I want snow, I am keeping my fingers crossed for a nice snowarama in DC, Balt and Philly. If they get mostly slush then Boston will likely get mush as well…UGH!

    TK…what is the timeline for DC et al? Is it first thing in the morning or overnight?

    What ever happens in DC…will not stay in DC, LOL. 😀

        1. Actually Vicki…as TK said above, it will be shoved OTS which is why snow is a player here. 🙂

            1. Wait…..are we talking about weather….sorry. I heard DC and went right to something else ……

    2. DC’s timeline is that steady precip is from overnight tonight through Wednesday evening, rain/mix to snow (3-6 inches as a guess but less east and a big build-up not too far west of them). Thursday while the band of whatever we get is up here, they see spotty lingering mix.

  37. OS…I am somewhat surprised that you don’t like seafood at all. Your name here (Old Salty) to me represents a fisherman or at least a person with marine interests, LOL. 😀

    Don’t even think about changing your name here. It still suits you. 🙂

    I do like most seafood, but I also like a good steak as well. I had one for lunch today in fact. 🙂

    1. Actually,

      I have no connection to the sea whatsoever, never have.
      Been on a boat a few times.

      1. And a fisherman. Oddly I get that. I love to fish but with one exception never wanted to eat what I caught. I mostly caught and released.

  38. John (reply to 6:38PM post): It starts out east. The question is when does it shift. Eventually it will have to. But it won’t take much to keep snow amounts down there even when the wind shifts. If the heaviest precip. and by default the most significant dynamic cooling has already taken place, and the precip. is lighter even with a north wind you’re not going to accumulate snow because 1) it still has ability to mix because the air is not super cold just north of us (it’s cold overhead) and 2) even if it was all snow it would be much lighter and it were happening during daylight (say Thursday afternoon) it would have trouble accumulating anyway.

    1. Thank you very much. So if I was reading your opening blog correct you had Boston in the 3-5 right. According to your reply that sounds like it may be a tad too much, agree.

      1. Yes. I have them in a 3-5 band initially, low to medium confidence, with the caveat that adjustment up or down is likely based mainly on wind direction and timing of precip. intensity.

        If anything I’m feeling this may end up lower near the coast and higher in some of the big hills well to the west (even a greater spread than I have forecast now).

        1. I am going with no accumulation in Boston. I believe you may agree with that right. I think the wind direction will be the kiss of death for Boston. This is my last question thank you. Have a nice night.

          1. Well as it stands now I don’t agree with 0, since I have them in a 3-5 band. I just am leaving the door open for tweaks and my feeling is that there is a better chance that I tweak down rather than up for the city.

  39. Interesting. 4 has gone down a touch on its maps and 7 now has a sweet spot in S Worcester county – where my oldest lives. 5 still has the highest amounts but not significantly higher

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  41. Still see mostly mix at the coast, with snow flakes coming down at times but not amounting to anything more than slush (1-2 inches in Boston; not worth plowing). Different story in the Worcester hills. By the way, I am not in the camp that says no more winter this year. Sure, the next 10 days don’t look particularly cold, but mid to late March storms have occurred in the past and will occur in the future. Will they this year? Who knows. But, do not rule them out. I’d bet on the likelihood of a late March snowstorm in SNE with a much better set-up for snow than this strange storm, over a delightful, springlike end of the month. When, besides last year, did that ever happen in SNE?

  42. You know spring is near when most of the snow accumulation occurs in darkness. Actually, with the April Fools’ storm in 1997 most of the accumulation was overnight just after midnight on the 1st. Even though it snowed heavily all afternoon on 3/31 the accumulation was barely 3″ and the rest of the 22.4″ fell overnight through the early morning commute then actually ended early afternoon as light rain…very typical spring storm, right TK? 🙂

    1. Typical as in time of maximum accumulation. Atypical in that the storm’s magnitude was tremendous. I had 30 inches here out of that thing.

      There have been some Spring snowstorms in which big accumulation did take place during the day. April 6 1982 was one of them. March 29 1984 was a daytime event, a solid foot of snow and tremendous east winds, but it was very cold aloft, so much so that thunderstorms with cloud-to-ground lightning accompanied the height of the storm.

    2. Also IIRC, temps during the storm were near or just above 30 degrees. I don’t recall any upper 20’s.

    3. I remember that storm very well. I drove home at 1130pm during blizzard conditions. Took me an hour to drive 3 miles. Had to keep stopping to see where I was going. Slippery, windy, white out conditions. Kept getting stuck. Horrendous.

    1. It’s really just a matter of the entire thing being on such a fine line. A few degrees one way or another and there’s a huge difference in what snow would fall based on a model forecast. Just turns out this time a few models have been tilted to the cold side, hence the big amounts. But models work off of a set of equations we derived about how we believe the atmosphere behaves, set in motion by a set of initial conditions that we observe with instruments of our own creation. If that doesn’t result in built-in error before the things are even run, then I don’t know what will. 🙂

      1. Thank you! It does seem like those numbers can’t verify, but I will hope just the same 🙂

    1. I could say the same to you with the snow. Time will tell. Looks like I’m not the only one.

    1. Hadi I’m lock step with you on this one. If we’re wrong we can go down in flames together! 😀 😀

    2. Look at probabilities. Sure looks like a snowstorm to me.

      Let’s see what the rest of the Z runs show. 😀

  53. I’m in the house now guys! Miss me! 🙂

    NAM still drops close to 2″ out here granted over like what seems a week!

    Can you believe the size of this circulation! I bet it would stretch from Hatteras to the rockies in width. You guys ever recall something this big at this latitude?

    2. **correction**

      Just dug deeper into the maps an it looks like about 1.25″ or so out here qpf. not 2″

  54. TK,

    That precip. showing up on the NAM back to the Adirondacks…..is that upslope that far back from this long fetch?

  57. noaa has snow in the forcast for me from 9pm wednesday night through 3pm friday!!!! talk about a long storm… if it is so long we neede 8 inches or more for it to be considered winter storm criteria?

    1. The criteria are the same regardless of how long it takes for it to fall. Clearly the impact of 8 inches over 2 1/2 days is different than 8 inches in 3 hours, especially with regards to road conditions.

  58. Nws tweet

    @NWSBoston: Technical: #MOS temps much too warm Wed night/Thu. Blend with dewpoint (2:1) for more realistic temps!

      1. OMG, that is the funniest thing that I have seen or heard in a very long time!!

        It drove me out 18 months of lurking 😉

  60. I’m holding with forecast of nothing from Plymouth to Providence south and east, along the I95 corridor from Boston to Providence a coating to perhaps an inch of snow, as you go to the 128 belt 1-3 inches, anywhere west and north of 128 accumulations will build to around 3-5 inches, the 495 belt and westward looks like 6-10 inches, I think alot of what falls inside 128 Boston down to Providence will be washed away, I think it’s very possible for it to be raining in say natick with a temp of 30 degrees after a snow burst that drops 2-4 inches, very tricky forecast, freezing rain could be a problem in some inland locations

  61. The interior locations looking good for a level 2 snow event snowfall in the 5 to inch 10 range. As you get closer to Boston and along the coast I am thinking a level 1 snow event with snowfall 4 inches or less.
    Thursday morning commute will be tough especially across the interior.

  62. I have a feeling a complication may be thrown into the mix courtesy the GFS. Let’s see…

  63. Kevin Lemanowicz said on-air that it doesn’t make sense that the models are throwing so much precip with the actual storm so far away from SNE.

    TK…Is it possible a norlun trough setup like they usually get in Maine…only that this time SNE is on the northern (snowy) sector?

    1. I don’t really agree with KL on that. Not all storms follow the same solid rules. The atmosphere is a fluid. The overall configuration of this storm I believe has been generally well-forecast by the models (it may turn out that the precip. amounts are not when all is said and done though).

      I don’t think a Norlun will play a big role in SNE this time. That type of feature is certainly possible and would prolong precipitation into Friday but at that point it should be mostly light and a mix with not a whole lot of accumulating snow to be found.

      Amounts are going to come in on the lower side of the forecasts or even below many of the forecast ranges if indeed the bulk of heaviest measurable precipitation falls during the daylight hours of Thursday. This is a distinct possibility.

  64. I’ve had this feeling in my gut for days that this will be much adieu about nothing. Nothing scientific about it whatsoever. Feel free to make fun of me if I am wrong, but if this thing trends any further SE I’m saying buh bye storm, it’s a bust.

    1. This was a concern of mine as well, though mainly for scientific reasons. There is not a big reservoir of cold around for this, other than overhead. We NEED intensity to bring it down. If we are not going to deliver decent QP or bring some prolonged heavy precip. in (the 2 go hand in hand here) it’s going to be very difficult to get it to snow in an accumulating fashion for a long time. Add to this the comment I made above about the heaviest precip. coming during the daylight hours.

      The disclaimer I put at the top of my blog entry was there for a very good reason. 🙂

      1. Thank you for your great insight and for taking my thoughts seriously enough to respond to them. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

      1. Remember, this map doesn’t take into account the difficulty in accumulation due to snow falling during the day in marginal conditions. 8 inches of snow may fall, but only 2 may accumulate.

  69. It’s gonna be the 2nd time this year wsw’s were issued and then were downgraded to wwa’s and I don’t think the Boston to Providence corridor will be included, just north and west possibly

  70. Clearly OTS is more of an issue vs. rain. This is has been the issue this entire time vs. everyone calling for rain IMHO. Lets see what euro says, goodnight all.

    1. Goodnight hadi, you very well might be right, I just think when it is precipitating it will be in the form of light rain due to intensity, anyways goodnight

  72. Any pilots or ex-pilots reading this blog tonight? I’d be curious to know what would be the maximum sustained winds/highest wind gusts that a commercial jet could safely take off and land in, assuming (lack of) visibility isn’t a huge issue…

    Thanks!

    1. Sorry that this is only marginally weather related, but there are some cool interesting people here, so it’s worth asking…

      1. It’s very weather-related. I have no idea of the answer, but I hope somebody can help. I’ll scan the messages awaiting moderation (which are usually mostly spam) in case somebody new chimes in with an answer. If not, we’ll find out for you somehow.

  73. A local TV met just said “it’s supposed to be spring”. Really? I didn’t know that pattern changed and stayed that way once the calendar switched to March… Ugh. Again.

  76. As of midnight, some light to moderate rain showers have been moving in from the ocean. Temp has gone up a bit. Suspect where some of these penetrate inland there may be some freezing rain in isolated locations but enough to slick up roads in some areas overnight.

  77. I don’t think Boston exceeds 3″ when this is all over with, reasons stated in my last post.

  78. Well no one was predicating hard rain overnight so makes me wonder how accurate this storm prediction will be. 🙂

  79. I got some heavier rain showers here in Quincy. But looks like it’s snowing in DC which I think TK said keep an eye on. I haven’t looked at any models so could this be less precip here? Anything from Euro?

  82. Just read the nws morning discussion. They basically have no clue as to exactly how this will pan out. It appears we will be doing some window meteorology starting tonight.

    1. Seeing that no one knows whats going on I will make sure I bring my sun block to work, just in case.

    2. Lets hope ch 7 is correct because that much wet snow with continuous strong winds and……well……we’ve lived that story recently.

      1. I hear you. I wonder how different the weather will be from my house to yours. I believe I am roughly 8 to 10 miles west of you. Half way mark roughly Lowes at Route 3?

        1. In this case, I believe no difference at all. Its the intensity of the precip that will have the biggest impact on rain vs snow. It all depends on if our area gets into the heavy precip and the heavy precip can maintain its intensity over an area for many hours in a row. Whoever gets that has a chance at wet snow accumulation.

  84. Boston Harbor tide already measuring + 1.6 ft above normal. In a long duration of onshore winds, this has me concerned, because there are going to be multiple tide cycles where the surge continues to grow (just because of the increase in wind speed) combined with less and less water being able to go out at low tides. This tidal threat to the coastline looks bad.

  86. More (ocean effect ??) showers occuring.

    Current temps in the upper 30s, even mid 30s inland with dewpoints in the low-mid 30s. I just dont know about the idea of a lot of snow. We’ll see how the cold air above plays out, but it sure looks like it has a LOT to overcome.

  87. I’m discouraged seeing the EURO showing more very cold, even arctic air charging towards our region in the long term, say around the 13th-15th of March.

    There is more arctic air beginning to reload in NW Canada and with the NAO remaining negative, this seems like a possible outcome in the long range.

    I do suppose the long term averages are just that perhaps March 2013, combined with March 2012, will come out to average. 🙁

    Have a good day all ! Get some work done out there !! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  88. This is one nutty forecast, some calling for 8-10 inches and other nothing. Euro still insists on dumping heavy snow in eastern mass. I guess we shall watch out the window :). I believe TK might be peeling back numbers.

    Scott I think Logan could be very different from the burbs for this one but lets see.

  89. Very good write up from the NWS this morning.

    Btw when did march 5th become spring around here in people’s view. Give me a break its NE not Georgia folks.

    1. I hear what your saying. Spring to me starts Sunday Evening when I try to put my kids to sleep and its still light outside.

      1. Yeah that’s hard, especially in the midde of the summer when it’s still semi-light out at 8:30pm.

  91. Tell me about coastal 🙂 my son will be like its light out I am not going to sleep yet. Lol

  93. Very light snow here this morning. Sugar coating overnight. Forget the models now guys – radar time.

  94. I thought NE folks very hardy, tough folks. All I hear is people complaining about some snow 🙂 in march.

    1. It’s a myth. If we were hardy, we wouldn’t have the “I’ve never driven in snow” syndrome with every storm and we wouldn’t need 12 loaves of bread to survive 24 hours inside a house. 🙂

    2. I think because we have very little in the way of snow in March the past few years people forget it could snow in March
      and sometimes you could get a good size March snowstorm. I don’t think this one is it and I see a lot of bust potential.

    4. I am more inclined to think its exactly as baileyman said. We are no longer looking at snowstorms. Too much devastation accompanies them.

  97. If you don’t like the weather report on one network, change the channel and you might get the one you like!

  99. Alot of stations are saying keep the snow away, I’ve heard it from 2 or even 3 stations this morning, it’s the modern day New England, it’s no longer New England of the past,

  101. Morning all,

    What a confusing mess!

    The GFS is the one model that first caught onto this, and Now it is the first one backing
    off more and more with each run. Nam is backing off as well.

    However, the 0Z CMC is beginning to load up! qpf way up from previous runs.

    Here is 06Z NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    06Z GFS snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=120

    To me, even the 0Z Euro has backed off a bit. Anyone have the qpf for it?

      1. Here is our system. It appears to be emerging off the coast
        somewhat farther SOUTH than originally forecast by the models.
        That could mean LESS qpf and more of an OTS scenario.

        http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

        another view:

        http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

        Radar does NOT yet show Northern movement AND, the echos
        don’t seem all that strong to me, even in VA where it was
        “Supposed” to be heavy.

        I’m not getting good vibes.

        This “could” end up a colossal bust.

        Keep watching!

        RADAR time. 😀

  102. With all the talk of Spring, this may be an indication it’s not too far off… found a yellow jacket in my house last night, and of all places it was limping along on my PC’s keyboard. Sure lucky I didn’t strike the key he was sitting on or I’d be telling you a story about my bee sting!!! Thinking I must have brought it in on me while poking around in the yard yesterday or at least hoping that’s the case and not a nearby nest in one of the walls.

  105. I agree with bust potential. The only reason were getting anything here is because the storm is large. The track that it is taken to me is out to sea track but because the storm is large we could still get fringe effects here in SNE.

  106. GFS has been trimming back its precip with every run for about 4 runs now. Wonder if it keeps going and it does end up a bust. Something hasn’t felt right along with this one like some others have been saying. Just a feeling, we shall see.

  107. I saw some snow maps on TV today and the disparity was amazing. I saw a local met with a large 4-8″ swath though less in Boston , rain on outer Cape, and 2-4″ mid Cape and SE.

    Then I saw a national TV met with 18-24″ in central and eastern MA. Meanwhile I’m thinking a lot of 2-4″ spots all around. I see more bust than real.

    2. Longshot I saw that as well and wondered what national met is seeing that ours are not. He had huge accumulation here

  108. Well….I might have to back off a bit grom my firm stance on snow within 495….with the showers coming in overnight from e/ne winds it seems as if the bl issues many have alluded to may be tougher to overcome especially if models are backing off precip intensity…I live in groveland ma 35 miles n of boston and about 11 miles west of the ne ma coast…it was 35 and raining this a…driving down 95 to rt 1 into Cambridge it went to 38….still think some snow but not as much as before

  112. Edited! Tweaked snow slightly down. Still open to additional tweaking later…

    Again I will be limited on the blog until around the middle of the afternoon but will try to chime in via mobile during the next several hours.

    Have a great day!

  113. I’ve never bought into this BIG Storm, granted it was for different reasons but looking at model after model things never looked right for a snowstorm, disappointment is sometime weathers middle name, hope you all have a great day!!!

    1. But it shows Mother Nature is not infallible. Reverse psychology might be working this time. Unfortunately when we say bust, it really isn’t so. The coast gets it bad with or without snow

  114. There will be not enough dynamic cooling bc precip isn’t heavy enough hence why rain will win out in Boston

  115. Has anyone reviewed the intellicast loop lately. It shows precip coming into the area from the ocean, it was all rain and then it changed its color to pink in interior SE Mass.

      1. I believe it depicts what is happening aloft where the precip is and not whats happening at the surface.

  116. On the road again today with limited research capabilities. How does the radar match up with what the Nam modeled to this timeframe?

    1. wouldn’t be a bust for me because I never thought inside of 495 would see much snow 😀

  119. I am heading off to Camp Bust. I have my sleeping bag and marshmallows packed. I am going to use the. NWS and WBZ snow maps as camp fire kindling. Kumbayaaaaaa…. 😉

          1. LOL Vicki! Yes, I bought a big beast of a 4 wheel drive SUV last week and a big beast of a snowblower the week before. Murphy’s law dictates that no major snow events can or will occur because of that. Hahaha!

  121. 7 came down just slightly in its numbers this morning (I see Pete is in for the long haul) – again similar to TKs and 4 dropped the higher elevation possibility so is for the first time the more conservative although so close it is about the same. 5 is the station that really dropped its numbers as it has been consistently higher.

  123. A totally off topic warning. I thought I’d post here b/c the email appeared very real. I received an email this morning from Fedex saying that a package was unable to be delivered on Feb 27. I was instructed to click the link to print the receipt and then pick it up at my nearest fedex office. I called Fedex. I get a lot of packages delivered but couldn’t think of any outstanding. Fedex told me that indeed it is a spam and had me forward it to abuse@fedex.com

    1. I have about 30 of those in my spam folder of my email. I laugh because they are so persistent, but realize that there are vulnerable folks out there who fall victim to these scams.

      1. I haven’t ever received one from Fedex and I never click anything but this was as convincing as I’ve seen – especially since I do all online shopping.

        1. Hi Vicki
          I get those also. The clue is how can my nearest FedEx office have my pkg? What’s my nearest office? Does the pkg shift location as soon as it sees my start driving? Lol

          1. This is the last one I received…

            from: Manager Robert Shannon

            Dear Client,

            Your parcel has arrived at February 20.Courier was unable to deliver the parcel to you at 20 February 06:33 PM.

            To receive your parcel, please, print this receipt and go to the nearest office.

                 

            Print Receipt

            Best Regards, The FedEx Team.

            The format, grammar and wording are awkward. Big tip-off that it was composed by someone who uses english as a second language.

  125. CNN Weather is 100% in Camp Snow: @CNNweather: Heavy snow moving into DC today. Snow develops in New England with snowfall totals near a foot west of Boston by Friday morning.

    Of course west of Boston is subject to interpretation…

  126. I Smell a bust. Not ready to throw in the towel just yet, but I’m getting there.

    here’s a glimmer of hope, the 0Z CMC TOTAL qpf map. Las tnight I posted
    it, but it was only through hour 48. This is the total:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=120&lang=en&map=na

    I believe that shows about 50mm for Boston OR 1.97 inches or roughly
    equivalent to the 0Z Euro.

    I’m going to look at a few other goodies and be back soon. 😀

    1. Are you smelling what I’m smelling? Dynamic cooling will not be able to overcome the marine layer in this one. Glad to see you may be coming around 😀

      1. I’m smelling that marine layer here in Hingham this morning…light rain showers/mist but at the same time some sun breaking through. Winds are out of the east (almost seems ESE according to the flag at times) and it’s 41 degrees.

      2. I’m coming around ONLY because it now appears precip
        won’t be heavy enough. Also, The wind direction has let me down.
        It IS EAST! (80 degrees) and that is a KILLER!!!

        I expect Northeast already this morning. Not so.

        We’ll see. I am close. 😀

        1. OS. That was what I feared all along. With a storm south of the BM, winds would be from the east. Precipitation wouldn’t come down heavy enough to allow for dynamic cooling to overcome the BL. This is why I forecasted more wet than white inside 495. I still feel this will be the case. Not sure why folks thought that a BM storm means snow. That is not always the case especially when a cold air mass is not already in place and you have to rely on a storm to create it’s own cold air to overcome all the other warm mechanisms in place. I still could be very wrong in the end but I don’t think I will 😀

      3. I am smelling marshmallows toasting over my lovely little camp fire… Bom ba dee da bom ba dee da…. Happy trails to yooooooou!

    2. 0Z JMA has back off as well:

      http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif

      0Z FIM has about the same qpf for Boston, but has lesser amounts inland
      than on the 12Z run.

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013030600/totp_sfc_f120.png

      All in all, this definitely represents a trend to LESS qpf.
      Less qpf translates to LESS dynamic cooling. Therefore, the snow
      forecast “may” be in trouble, especially along the coast.

      I was basing a SNOW forecast on heavier precip. If that doesn’t happen
      well then, all bets are off.

      We’ll just have to see what happens.

      Still want to look at 12Z runs. Want to see if GFS backs off more and
      most importantly if the Euro is still on or IF it backs off.

      In the meantime, I’ll be watching the radar returns and satellite images.

      😀

      1. One more thing.

        Coming into work this morning it was very very windy!!

        8AM obs from Logan, wind at 80 degrees (VERY VERY BAD!!)
        gusting to 32 mph.

        Add that in and it is NOT looking good. Will continue to monitor.
        😀

  128. Heading off to work now. It is a shame I can’t get in to the blog at work or my work mobile phone. The site is blocked. Have a good day everyone!

  131. NWS out to lunch on the wind this morning?!? Significant gusts out here in Sherborn – over 30 mph.

      1. Throw me a wind advisory or special weather statement – could get blindsided by a lobstah!

  132. Well, this radar loop looks much better than the loop I viewed earlier this morning.
    You can see the rotation as this thing cranks up. Some strong echos as well.

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    This provides some “hope”. We’ll have to see how much of the heavy duty
    precipitation makes it up here. Time will tell. 😀

    1. Vicki,

      I don’t think it was expected to be this strong, this soon. 😀

      It almost knocked me over when I exited my car this morning coming into
      the office. 😀

  134. EURO really has busted on a couple storms in a row, very poor performance from the King. As it’s still depicting a major snow storm in the 00z run.

    1. How true and I sense yet another big time bust. We’ll see.

      Not getting good vibes at all on this one. I was OK through last evening.
      By the time the 0Z GFS came out, I was beginning to change my tune.

      This Winter has been brutal with the forecasts and the model divergence.
      😀

  138. Somebody mentioned the 2010 “storm” that went poof with some rain and drizzle.

    I fear this storm is following in its path.

  139. I’m happy that I took JMA’s advice and applied more meteorology than modelology. I sensed that the marine layer would win out. Remember, there is a lack of a cold airmass. East and even northeasterly winds off of a 40 degree ocean with surface temps above freezing is not likely to be overcome by a storm south of the BM due to loss of dynamic cooling. It’s possible I nailed this one as well 😀

    2. Good job. Was not that hard to figure out. The signs were there. As I said the models don’t always hold the truth. Tk has said numerous times this winter dont always get sucked into what the model is showing. As I said many times the wind is the big story not the snow for Boston all down the coast. Wind direction, ocean tempature, time of the storm all key parts here.

        1. Actually they are ENE winds which is just as ineffective as easterly winds. I know you love your SREF but it isn’t going to verify once again 😀

          1. And again, I know that the model in that picture shows NNE winds but the model in my head sees ENE winds 😉

              1. Anything to make you feel better. I’m likely going to have to make you a humble pie when all is set and done which I’m confident will make you feel even better 😀

                1. Perhaps. Not giving up just yet. I’m still hanging on.

                  But current indications are that you may have made the correct call all along.

                  We’ll see. 😀

          2. What? I’m afraid not. The wind does NOT
            flow with the isobars. The winds at the surface flow more perpendicular to the isobars.

            Did you look at the wind Barbs at the reporting stations???

            Get with the program. 😀

            1. OS. Believe me. I know how to read and interpret the models. It doesn’t take a scientist to figure that out. If you read my post above, I alluded to the fact that the model in my head says east and east north east. I’m not model hugging. I’m using my brain 😀

  142. That easterly wind is this storms demise along with not enough dynamic cooling spells winter is over, this storm will unofficially end winter and trust I was hoping for a Big Bang to end but I’ve jumped in hypster Henry margisitys camp, anyways have a good breakfast, it’s the most important meal of the day 🙂

    1. I wouldn’t necessarily be so confident about that. A cold blast could be here by mid month 🙂

    1. This looks to be the FINAL NAM qpf.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif

      That is somewhere in the range of 2-3 inches in the Boston Area.

      Now the question is: Will the precip be intense enough to overcome the
      marine layer.

      Let’s see if the GFS continues to back off. And also, if the Euro is still on board.

      Also, I was looking at the simulated radar reflectivities.

      Based on those, I am seriously wondering IF the precip will be intense enough
      to overcome the marine layer.

      We’ll have to wait and see. 😀

      3. Never going to let it go, this is part of fun for us. Again i love tracking this stuff, right or wrong with numbers.

  146. Let’s not get too confident yet that this will bust as it hasn’t happened yet. Does the wind direction and lighter precip modeled make us in the snow camp nervous?(still in the snow camp just not as firm as before) Sure, but this hasn’t happened yet and we won’t know until we are in the thick of it how this thing will swing.

    1. Very very true. Anything can happen. We could be surprised and see 18 inches. And believe me, I would be one very, very happy guy. I love snow. But, I call it like I see it–not how I wish it would be. There is zero cold air in place and if you want see accumulating snow inside 495, you better have a NNE wind for a majority of the storm couple with strong dynamic cooling mechanisms. Unfortunately, since the storm will be way out at sea, we never get into a steady northerly wind direction and we lose out at our last hope of evaporational cooling effect due to the lack of very heavy precip. Could this still happen? Yes. Will it happen? It is NO in my opinion 😀

  148. I think you will see accumulation on grass, side roads and cars, but yes it will tough to add up on the roads.

    John what I think you do not realize that many of us track bc of our love for weather. I will never stop that. I am not paid to be a met, I am paid to be great at my job which I do very well.

    2. Don’t take it personal hadi. You do an awesome job here and think your great with all the information that you present us. In this case though some signs were there and really was not that hard to see even for a non expert like myself. I have learned here to not always go by the models but other factors as well. I hope to be more educated in the models next winter. Take Care hadi.

      1. I agree. You and OS do an awesome job in keeping this forum informed. It’s what people wish to do with the information that matters.

  149. Strange how some New Englanders on this blog (I presume most are New Englanders) are saying “winter is over.” While this somewhat bizarre storm – which will likely turn out to be remembered as a fierce wind storm and not a major rain- or snowmaker – is probably not going to give us snow at the coast, it looks very much like winter outside. It’s in the 30s, cold wind, and it’s going to be that way for awhile. That is not spring, folks, not in my book. March hardly ever feels like spring, and April often follows suit. This is not Washington DC, where from mid March on spring is ushered in, almost like clock-work. This is Boston and SNE where the grays take over much of March and April, and the rawness makes you feel like being inside, not outdoors. Oh, and as Alisonrod reminded us, there will still be several bursts of real cold air to come this month, possibly with accumulating flakes.

    My take is that if you like spring you’re bound to be disappointed around here. I spent a year doing research in Philadelphia and noticed a huge difference between spring there and here. If you like spring, Philly is a much better option. But, Boston beats Philly hands down with all the other seasons (less hot and humid in summer, gorgeous in fall, and snowier and sunnier in winter).

    1. It always takes a long time before true spring sets in here in NE. Agreed. If you want true consistent spring, you’ll likely have to wait until May. Sure, you may see a couple of 60, 70 or even 80 degree days in April. However, you will quickly be reminded that summer is too far away when we get hit with several drawn out, chilly, damp air masses between now and then.

    2. You kidding? I LOVE being outside in March! I am a hearty New Englander with thick skin. 😉 March and April is time spent getting the garden ready and the yard cleaned up.

      1. I’m still in hibernation mode, LOL. I can’t get into yard/garden mode with temps in the 40’s and 50’s 😉

      2. Me too – I’m a bit bummed because the deck is covered with snow still and with the temps up this weekend, I want to be out on the deck with a fire roaring. Shoveling may be in order to make that happen!!

    3. Joshua – I absolutely agree. I don’t think we have a true New England spring any more. Last year was the first year in recent memory that we actually were able to enjoy spring weather. The seasons seem to have shifted. Summer/non-fall like weather hangs through November. Whatever we have now as winter runs right into the hotter, more humid weather of summer. Spring has been lost somewhere along the line.

      Meanwhile, my daffodils sit about 6 inches above ground surrounded by snow. They are consistently earlier than they ever used to be. Seasons are shifting.

    1. I’d be up for surprises. I’d love to see something that indicates a lot of snow in the Boston area and immediate surrounding communities. I just don’t.

  152. As I respect all of your opinions I always think spring when we begin to see 50’s for highs on a consistent basis, and that’s usually late March early April, some years I feel spring earlier and some years a little late but on average late March to Memorial Day is spring, speaking of 50’s I see 1 maybe 2 50 degree days next week, will see if it pans out

    4. That’s who I saw this morning too – see my comment above. Not sure what he’s seeing. His forecast was followed immediately by “here’s your local forecast” in which JR gave 7s map – far different

  154. just watching wunderground for obs in my area…temp has gone from 39 to 36.4 in last hour and winds seem to be more nne than ene

  155. Next tweak by 4:30PM. May lower a bit more but not sure. The impact of snow amount can be halved at least anyway because it takes place over 36 hours in marginal conditions. IMPORTANT to remember this.

  156. When I left Hingham for work this morning around 8:15 winds were blowing pretty good. Here in Norwell now and for the past hour or so winds are lot lighter. Hmmmm.

  159. NWS responded to my question about a Wind Advisory for today – maybe a matter of semantics, but the watch is for the period of Thursday AM to Friday AM, if winds are at an advisory level today a.) does the watch period truly cover it or b.) should a stand-alone advisory be issued? Tweet response from NWS Boston:

    @NWSBoston: only wind advisory is for the Vineyard and Nantucket. The Winter storm Watch implies advisory type winds.

  160. Rain here just turned to light snow. Wind still gusting to a consistent 15/16 mph. I just filled my freezer with zip lock bags of ice. Not really expecting to lose power but making bags of ice is easier than the alternative. I was amazed at how many actually lost food during the Feb 9 storm………we had natures refrigerator right outside our doors.

    1. Vicki – generally where are you in Framingham? I am close to the Framingham border here in Sherborn.

        1. ok, thx, I was not seeing the light snow earlier that you were, but that makes sense given your location vs. mine

  161. I’m surprised TK that you feel I-95 is in that 4-8 belt. Here is my forcast and this may be a bit too robust in the end:

    CC/Islands up through plymouth including the immediate coast line and Logan Airport 0-2 inch (with any accumulation on the backside)

    Just away from the coastline to a line between 95 and 495 including providence and taunton: 2-4 inches

    And from just east of 495 north and west 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

    North and west of the Worcester hills will experience less precip from this storm due to being further away from the center of circulation, so expect snow amounts to drop in those locales as one moves further west and north.

    2. It’s just cranking up near the coast. It will slowly move off. Even as it does,
      precip will still show moving west in that location for a bit. 😀

      1. Thank you, OS! And reading from an earlier blog (or the top of this one, not sure – so many comments!) I pictured you as somewhat of a sea captain type! Kind of ruined my picture of you when you say you don’t like seafood! But that’s ok – there is another Captain on this blog so we can have 2 captains of the weather! 🙂

        1. That’s not the storm moving retrograding. What you’re seeing are the west and northwest movement of bands away from the center of circulation. Remember, the storm has a counterclockwise circulation so storm echos north of the center will move west while echos south of the center will move east.

    1. Actually,

      We are no where near under the circulation of that system, so I don’t believe
      the winds really turn until we become more under the influence of
      the low presssure system. The winds are up there now due to the pressure gradient between the low in Nc/Va and the canadian high to our N and NE. 😀

      We’ll see.

      1. Correct! And if the storm remains too far south, this is why winds stay more easterly rather than northerly. We need the storm to approach the BM in order for winds to blow from 30 vs 80 degrees. Granted even if the storm remains too far south, winds will eventually turn northerly but it will be a little too late.

  164. Lisa: I admire your hearty character. I consider myself hearty, too, but damp and 30s/40s causes me to head indoors.

    In any event, I think everyone should be aware that looking ahead we may see several more chances of snow this month, along with some really cold days and nights. And, this may last awhile. While we can’t rule out a day or two in the 50s, these will likely be few and far between the remainder of this month. That’s the way I see it. I have no clue why HM from Accuweather declared “winter is over” after this storm. He does this every year, by the way. And, he acts surprised when it snows in the Northeast in mid to late March! I like his enthusiasm, but his predictions tend to be out there. Which model is pointing to spring, HM?

    1. All through the long winter, I dream of my garden. On the first day of spring, I dig my fingers deep into the soft earth. I can feel its energy, and my spirits soar.
      Helen Hayes

      One of my favorite quotes. Reminds me of my yia yia who was an avid gardener. She knew everything one could know about gardens and plants. She lived for Spring-time.

      1. I like gardening myself. Too bad I don’t have a garden at the moment. But, I used to like it when I did have one. I’m also an avid naturalist, and it’s not just animals that interest me, also plants, flowers, trees.

  165. Latest obs from Providence, Wind gusting to 33 from 050 degrees. Now that’s
    getting there. 😀

    2. But the meat and potatoes is later tonight and tomorrow let’s see what th winds are in the morning.

  166. I liked the 12z NAM run for my part of CT which shows a good 6-8 inches. With the NAM it will probably be around 4 inches like the 6z GFS run was showing. It will be interesting if the 12z GFS shows the same as 6z run. I am not putting much stock in the NAM.
    Sorry to the snowlovers who live near or at the coast but this is looking like an interior snow event that to me looks to come in two waves. One overnight tonight into Thursday morning and another overnight tomorrow in Friday morning.

  167. HM’s entertainment value is worth its weight in snow. Every year he forecasts snowmageddon, fire and brimstone and then makes his grand declaration that Winter is over.

  168. Really busy and I won’t lie, this for me is a much harder forecast than the “bust” storm of two weeks ago, where the forecast worked out pretty well or the February 2010 “bust” which worked out even better for me.

    I don’t have a great handle on it.

    I think TK is in pretty good shape. I am lower for snowfall amounts in Boston and areas within 10 miles of east facing beaches. Potential jackpot will be east facing slopes of the higher terrain east and southeast of Worcester. Sharp cutoff west of Worcester, as I think the system dives further southeast than modeled. However a band with a long fetch that sets up north of Worcester into SNH could make for a “secondary” snowfall jackpot with lesser amounts in between the elevation driven jackpot south and east of Worcester and the potential northern jackpot. Best snowfall may actually come from an upper trough that rotates through the area Thursday Night/Early Friday and not from the main system.

    The length and lack of intensity is going to make this much lower impact than people are thinking right now due to the high QPF. Models do not do well with accumulated snowfall at this time year with these type of systems.

    Wind at the coast is still the main deal here.

    Tom you made some excellent points about the negating factors at work here.

    1. What did you think of my snow total forecast? Curious to see if I’m far off in your opinion.

      1. Arod I think they are good. I would go with some i 6-8″ amounts higher elevations of Middlesex County/Worcester County/Southern New Hampshire if this narrow northern band with the long fetch sets up, but otherwise close for me. I know not everyone has that and I could be wrong, but that is one area I think might be under-forecasted for snow right now. Otherwise I think most areas are over-forecasted.

        Big difference between what falls and what accumulates with this storm.

        1. Absolutely…ground is too warm, surface temps marginal at best, precip during daylight hours has difficulty accumulating, etc. Thank you for your input.

          1. question – can ground be considered too warm if it is still covered with a few inches of snow?

              2. I get that it insulates the ground but the new snow would be landing on the snow cover and not the ground – so if snow lands on snow does it still hinder accumulation

                1. Most coastal areas have bare ground. Not to mention, no one has snow covering paved areas 😀

  170. JMA one of our meteorologist here in CT was saying what you are saying that the Thursday night into Friday morning snow part two as he called could be the bigger deal. I liked the graphics he had and good breakdown with 1-2 inches tonight and 2-5 tomorrow night into Friday.

    1. I believe this euro run will be the dagger in the heart so to speak, I think it will show snow but back off a bit more from last run or stay the same, honestly I hope not but I’m afraid that’s gonna be the case, I’ve matched up different models to radar and it’s really a mess and leaning towards gfs IMO

        1. Yeah the euro is seeing that H and heavy precip to produce that snow, I lean towards the euro picking up that it’s gonna be further away, will c though

  173. GFS sure is….crazy to think the GFS showed a hit for so many runs and then slowly but surely has showed a more OTS and the Eurp showing a more OTS is now showing more of a hit. I would hate to be a met on this one

  174. Thanks Old Salty and everyone else posting the links so I could let people know what the models are saying.
    Interesting the 12z run of the GFS has come in around 6 inches where I am. the 6z run had 4 inches and now we look to get the most on that run where it was eastern CT in prior GFS model runs.

  178. BTW NAM had over a foot for parts of the DC area and that’s not happening for them so who knows what impact that will have on us.

  179. Pretty weird I got wbz 1030am radio in car and just heard burbanks forecast, I’m 200 miles away, idk I thought it was impressive I can hear it all the way in southern vt

  182. latest obs from Logan:

    Temp 39, dew point down to 29, Wind 070 degrees, gusts to 34.

    This dew point DROP that someone else mentioned, “MAY” become
    quite significant when we get into any meaningful precipitation. 😀

  183. @BarryWBZ: Wind will be one of the biggest stories from this system… more significant beach erosion and some flooding.

  184. D.C. was always a tough forecast. You go west of D.C. its another story. The mix line is right on top of D.C. right now last I checked the radar.

  186. @BarryWBZ: I expect heaviest precipitation over southeastern MA from the impending storm… lower amounts north and west of Boston.

    1. uh oh !!

      When one of those showers came thru with a very brief heavy burst of precip, there were a lot of snow flakes mixed in.

        1. not even part of the storm…does mean dynamic cooling may be able to overcome BL issues afterall…we’ll have to wait and see

          2. As you said, not even part of the storm therefore easterly winds and subsequent B.L won’t become a factor until the storms approaches 😀

  187. As the President of Camp Bust, I am here to announce we are having open enrollment this afternoon…we might even let Hadi and OS in. 🙂

      2. I am a hardliner from Camp Snow and will not defect, but respect the sovereignty of Camp Bust and wish your constituents well.

              3. I’d like to join Camp Bust please. I’ll bring some chocolate, since that makes everything better.

    3. If there is still snow – is it still considered a bust? I thought we were going either rain or snow?

      1. I’ll happily bring peanut butter too, and by the way, there is a candy shop in Omaha that makes s’mores with peanut butter–oh my goodness! So I’ll pick up some graham crackers too.

  188. OS. Now that we are close to the event, would you mind giving us your snow total forecast? I’m curious.

  189. jeff simpson ‏@jsimp1610_

    NAM had a 1004 mb – Gfs had 996mb- Euro 1000mb…. We already have a 994 mb low…..over performing?

  190. Henry Marguisty was saying last week a lot of these storms this winter have over acheived and were stronger than what the models were showing. From that tweet you posted Coastal looks like this one may fall into that category.

    3. See my question above —- I didn’t hear numbers given yesterday but I thought I heard all rain vs a snow event (again no numbers)

  194. I was somewhat surprised that JR or Pete didn’t insist on air that Boston and Worcester will NOT receive 12-18″ and 18-24″ of snow respectively after Al Roker’s commercial break. They just went into the local forecast like nothing happened. Those who have relatives outside the area (as I do) could easily get the wrong idea. If those totals were mentioned where my relatives live, I would start to become concerned too.

    I am fairly certain that the local mets see and hear what the national mets say just beforehand.

    I am very curious what model Al was looking at…talk about dynamic cooling! LOL 😀

    2. My guess is that it might have been inappropriate to do so. I sort of thought JR had a bit of a quizzical smile. But then JR is always smiling so I probably read into it

  195. For this system I have never given a snow total. All I have said was that it would
    be SNOW and not rain. Although I am more nervous about it, I still think it will SNOW.
    I am also VERY encourged by reports of Snow from Plymouth and Marshfield (also Framingham even if not on coast) during the passage of a brief heavier shower. To me, this means when the real precip gets here it WON’T have any trouble being SNOW. 😀

    I’ll put some numbers after I see the Euro and CMC.

    1. That’s what I’m trying to flush out here OS — yesterday it seemed the discussion was snow or no snow (i.e., rain). No??? How is it a bust if we get snow which is what you were saying?

          1. OS never gave amounts – just said snow.

            This is what I had at noon yesterday

            Snow camp
            Vicki
            Hadi
            GFS
            OS
            Rainshine
            Merlin
            Captain
            Shotime

            Almost snow everywhere
            Retrac
            Lisa
            DS

            Snow only west of 495
            Arod
            John

            Bust
            WW

            1. I apologize if I left anyone out – posts were fast and furious and I was checking between working

            2. Who said he gave amounts. He did was saying he thought the storm could be major. Some mets already lowering.

                1. To me OS was saying models were indicating major snow. Either way, Arod – everyones numbers have changed since yesterday. OS not seeing as much on models and you and John have moved snow well inside 495.

                  It’s kind of what it’s all about I think – brainstorming and then coming to a consensus. Sort of like human models 🙂

              3. Lisa – the folks in the almost camp got a bit confusing for me so I put them in the middle and to be honest you folks are probably the ones who will end up being the closest.

  199. I say .9 at Logan, 1.8 Boston, 3.3 Worcester, 2.2 Providence, jackpot will be northeastern ct southern Worcester cty of some 6 inch amounts

  200. It looks like the low is at the coast and therefore because its right at the coast its just bringing in the mild air from off the ocean.
    Look where the snow is north and west of D.C. and Baltimore.

  201. I’m going to say it. Euro comes in stronger, just to antagonize Charlie.

    I will absolutely be wrong.

  203. BB tweet

    @BarryWBZ: Important fresh incoming data next 1-2 hours should add definition to this system yielding a more confident solution. Big tweets coming.

  206. Just had wind swept rain and snow as well as the sun shining in North Plymouth. Very odd out there indeed!

  207. Hahaha wouldn’t it be funny if the euro shows 1-2 ft of snow, the weather world here would be going crazy and the mets would be like this is absolutely crazy

  209. From Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: Adding lower atmosphere instability to considerations only makes this an even more interesting storm to study & estimate as a science

  210. Just got a big gust with ice pellets almost like hail here in Hingham. Now the sun is trying to peak out between the clouds.

  211. OS, Hadi and the rest. Do not be fooled by reports of snow/sleet in places like Marshfield. Winds haven’t picked up yet as the storm is still too far south. Once the energy gets closer, ENE winds will bring in the marine layer and warm the column along coastal locales.

      1. Me too – we have been blown around here all morning. It wasn’t until Feb 9 was well underway that we had consistent gusts up to the high teens. We are getting occasional gusts up to the low-mid 20s now. Just had a 23

        1. Trust me. The storm hasn’t even approached our latitude. Marine layer winds will not come into play until this evening.

    2. Sorry, Not with you on this. I think it is VERY meaningful that we are
      seeing snow now. 😀

  213. It doesn’t surprise me that some locales are seeing snow/sleet. Wait until the winds crank from the east and east northeast as the storm approaches. That is when the marine layer takes over.

  214. @BarryWBZ: I’m thinking that while it is a long duration event from late tonight into early Fri, the snowfall accumulation may not be impressive.

  215. Sounds good on the snow/rain reports but can’t we just report it and not have to analysis it to death??

    1. Marine layer wins keeping 0C line over worcester so any precip east of 495 would be rain

        1. Hadi. That is at 30h. Did you read the rest of my comments as the EC run continued to evolve?

    1. And at 54 hours as the storm begins to loose its grasp on SNE, it’s snowing everywhere including the cape and islands but it may be a little too late for them.

  230. The euro looks like it wants to throw precip back at us while the storm itself is 300 miles east, I gotta look at it with more detail

  231. ERUO throws over 1.50 QPF and 850 are well below zero and 2 M are only .8 above zero to -.01. This scream snow storm IMHO

    1. Yes it matters big time. If much of the snow falls during the day, much of it will not accumulate due to marginal day time temps and increased sunlight. That is one concern.

  235. So in essence, that was a good run from the EURO if you’re a snowlover like me. If the EC were to verify, OS and Hadi could be correct :D. If it did remain all snow, slide the 4-8 all the way to the coast. Even though it would be snowing for much of the time, if the EC verified, snow would have difficult accumulating for several reasons I sited above. So 1.5″ of QPF with snow ratios of 8:1 at best would make it difficult to exceed 4-8.

    I’m still not on board with the EURO but it was a good run 😀

  236. It might have been hailing in Milton a few seconds ago–something frozen came down fast and hard and there are little white pellets. Maybe it was sleet. I don’t know. Now the sun is trying to come out. Not easy to teach the young ‘uns with this going on.

          1. If they are not solid pieces of ice, they could be snow pellets. These are formed by snow falling through a layer of air that is just above freezing where the snow only partially melts and then refreezes as it falls back into cold air next to the earths surface. It differs from sleet in that with sleet, the snow is totally melted and then refreezes into a small piece of ice.

            It could be graupel, they are normally formed where small supercooled rain drops form directly from water vapor and collide to form ice pellets that are solid. The only difference from graupel to snow pellets is that the center of the ball is still soft and break apart easily and graupel does not.

            Via google search

              1. Ho ho ho! I am now officially the coolest teacher ever–we went outside and got some; they broke apart easily. Can someone arrange for this to happen again next year?

  237. Comparing 12z vs. 0z, any meaningful insights in terms of trend (position, warmer/colder/timing)?

  238. Here is the text for EURO,

    3.0 -6.9 1018 89 40 0.00 544 530
    WED 18Z 06-MAR 4.4 -7.9 1018 69 52 0.03 546 531
    THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -8.5 1018 70 78 0.04 545 531
    THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.9 -8.5 1016 75 92 0.04 544 532
    THU 12Z 07-MAR 1.5 -6.7 1015 80 94 0.08 544 532
    THU 18Z 07-MAR 0.8 -5.9 1015 88 98 0.26 545 533
    FRI 00Z 08-MAR 0.5 -7.7 1015 92 99 0.55 545 533
    FRI 06Z 08-MAR 0.7 -7.2 1013 90 97 0.44 545 535
    FRI 12Z 08-MAR -0.1 -6.8 1014 89 98 0.35 545 534
    FRI 18Z 08-MAR 1.4 -3.9 1016 76 98 0.27 549 536
    SAT 00Z 09-MAR 3.9 -3.5 1019 64 97 0.04 553 537
    SAT 06Z 09-MAR -0.3 0.1 1020 77 12 0.00 555 539

  239. Euro has slightly less precip at around 1.25-1.75, temps r close to the same from what I can see, at quick glance it looks about the same

    1. Observed the same on the MassPike driving into Boston 30 minutes ago. Matt Noyes made the observation that the atmosphere is very unstable making it easy for heavier precip to occur – hence the snow w/marginal temps. It was 41° w/o precip on the way in and 38° w/precip (wet snow).

    1. Thx – I am between BOS:ORH a bit below the pike/9 between 128:495 on the fringe of Framingham. Is it just the major cities the Euro provides data output for?

  243. Someone mentioned yesterday that this is like a winter hurricane. I meant to ask at the time and got sidetracked. Is the typical nor’easter also like a winter hurricane or is this a different animal……whether it impacts us or not. Thanks for any clarification!

  244. Sun barely out between a lot of clouds in Sudbury. Has been very windy past few hrs. Also looks like sprinkles of rain around. Sky definitely looks weird- clouds moving fast. Almost a springlike sky but it feels like snow – or a wet snow coming. Strange weather day! Maybe that’s why this storm is so hard to figure out.

  245. Snow/sleet fairly consistent here for a while with winds now gusting consistently to low 20s

    Temp 37.7 DP 31

  246. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan

    Scituate MA Administrators: We have been advised that coastal flooding during three tide cycles will be more severe that that of Storm Nemo

        1. Who’s the Weather Channel and why did they name a blizzard after a clown fish from a Disney movie?

  247. Why r all the schools closing? I never remember that schools being cancelled the day before

    1. Flooding concerns and rightfully so. Its a very serious situation along the coast when the waves crash over the sea walls.

    3. I totally get why they are closing. In addition to flooding, my bet is there are a lot of trees and or poles that were compromised during Feb 9 storm. There is the danger of those coming down on kids walking, riding buses or in parents cars. Also, my guess is there will be more flooding simply because a lot of the existing natural or manmade barriers are gone let alone the four high tides and winds.

  248. Note the few sprinkles/flurries we are seeing today is from the easterly wind formed from a combination of H to the north and a large surface low that is getting organized to our south. The real meat and potatos are still over the mid-atlantic states.

    http://www1.whdh.com/weather/radar

    1. You can clearly see the east to west trajectory of sprinkles/flurries moving onshore from the Atlantic asis the marine layer that is trying to get involved.

  250. Was out at lunch. Was snowing here at the office in Roxbury. 😀

    btw, GREAT STUFF Coastal. Keep em coming!!!

    Euro looks interesting. 2.07 inches, eh Hadi. Not too shabby. GAME ON!

    btw, 850mb temps are -8C. PLENTY COLD.

    It is going to SNOW.

    It’s a matter of HOW much can accumulate.

    Snow ratios will be down around 5:1 or so or how ever low it can go without raining and inland perhaps 7 or 8:1 compensating for less qpf.

    Logan = 5 inches
    JP = 8 inches
    Westwood = 9 inches
    Worcester = 8 inches
    Providence = 10 inches
    Taunton = 11 inches and the jackpot.

    let’s see HOW wrong I can be. At least I’m not putting out a forecast to the public. 😀

    2. If EURO were to verify, I wonder how far inland you’d have to be to tack on a few more inches

      I continue to be frustrated that Boston’s snow total comes from Logan.

    3. Wow!!! You got a blockbuster coming, I respectfully disagree but hey it’s all good 🙂

      1. Oh my! Os. I’m from Westwood and would love for your snow totals to verify. I’m going to the store to grab those ingredients for your humble pie 😀

    4. Taunton gets 11 despite being very close to the marine layer? I can see how you’d forecast that for woonsocket RI or Uxbridge MA but Taunton??? 😀

  251. I just was outside, and like Deb said, the rain turned to little white pellets.

    Thanks, coastal for your explanation of what that was.

  253. Hi Guys!

    Man, another busy day. Haven’t been able to look at anything.

    Two things for right now:

    -check out the loop on the Upton radar. You can see the low level moisture slide under the mid-level stuff – very cool “weather” http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    -for the record, I hold the deed to “Bust Camp” from yesterday. Not expecting total bust but I better get an invite too if necessary since I own the joint. 🙂

    -snow showers on/off all day in holden

    2. We can grant you a provisional membership into Snow Camp, but you will need to retrac’t some of your statements from yesterday.

      1. Don’t do it…you can’t trust those Camp Snow folks…a dangerous lot they are 🙂

    2. Wow O.S., tucked right up against the coast. Stronger is better IMHO. Might get it a smidge closer.

    1. So let me get this straight. Taunton sees almost a foot of snow despite BL issues, the March sun, day time falling precipitation and extremely low snow ratios???

  256. I’m concerned about the snow sticking to the branches and causing outages again in my area. My wife and I had 5 flashlights for the Blizzard, My kids (1 and 2yo) loved playing with them and now they are all broken.

        1. It’s surprisingly small and feels so light but this thing rocks. Totally crushes all thos emuch large 4 D Battery flashlights I have.

          1. Nice call WW and a good price. Like the caribeener feature – 4 LEDs!!! That is a going to throw some light!

        2. Since we are sharing alternate lighting solutions. We got this from L L Bean and it is incredibly bright and also lasts forever

          http://www.llbean.com/llb/shop/65537?feat=lanterns-SR0&page=10-day-camp-lantern&attrValue_0=Red&productId=1105453

          And coastal because our grandson likes to play with flashlights too and also to use in his room at night we got this for kid use and so far it’s held up well. It says mini but it gives great light and is the right size for him

          http://www.llbean.com/llb/shop/72843?feat=lanterns-SR0&page=mini-camp-lantern

            1. Sure – the other thing we used and I think I said this before is glow sticks for the kids. But they do love flashlights — can’t say as I blame them.

  257. Perhaps 10 minutes ago, there was what looked like a severe thunderstorm or special marine warning somewhere in that convective looking band of precip in the southern NJ area. Must be crazy down there, either with the precip, wind or both.

    1. Maryland Coast, its still there, just WSW of Ocean City, MD.

      Poor Assateague Island, it was already beaten by Sandy.

      1. Wow – I see it Tom – thanks. A nut on the BZ weather blog stated just another coastal event and that’s how sand gets made. Maybe with a coastal event here and there but not one after another and another.

        Is there talk of closing Marshfield? I was afraid once Scituate closed, Marshfield would follow suit.

        1. The EURO is not taking into account low snow ratios, march sun, day time precip, etc. Models do not take these things into consideration. You’re only seeing what the total liquid precip forecast is. If you’re to achieve 12-18 inches, snow ratios would need to be 10:1. Inside of 495, ratios will be 5-6:1. That amounts to 6-9 inches still does not take into consideration that much of this precip falls during the day under the strong March sun. Even if the EC verified, 4-8 inches is more likely for the area.

  258. After further review of the euro there r a few suspect timeframes, I’m holding with 4-8 southern Worcester cty, 3-6 northern Worcester cty, 2-4 along and east of 495, 1-3 along and inside 128 and down I95 corridor to Providence, an inch or less at Logan, and and inch or less south and east of Plymouth and Providence, I see around an inch of qpf falling during the daylight hrs thu BUT only around 1-2 inches will accumulate on car tops and grassy surfaces, the rest of the precip is melting down the drain, time will tell 🙂

    1. And the people on the coast need to pay attention to tides cause it will be close to waves coming over

      2. I think the euro around hr 54 is keeping precip to long, I think it shuts off sooner than that, plus at that time it may be snowing but intensity I think is an issue

  259. Areas near and at the coast will not exceed 4 inches from this storm system. Level 1 snowfall
    The interior particulary up in elevation will have level 2 snow event snowfall exceeding 4 inches.
    I expect the winter storm watch to be downgraded to an advisory for areas at the coast.

  260. How about here.

    Euro still dropping 12 to 18 in eastern mass and has done so for the last several runs

    2. And other models have not been *that* far off. Hope we aren’t missing something (ok, fine. Hopefully we ARE missing something.)

    3. Coastal…The EURO is not taking into account low snow ratios, march sun, day time precip, etc. Models do not take these things into consideration when projecting snowfall. You’re only seeing what the total liquid precip forecast is. If you’re to achieve 12-18 inches of snow, snow ratios would need to be 10:1. Inside of 495, ratios will be 5-6:1 at best. That amounts to 6-9 inches but still does not take into consideration that much of this precip falls during the day under the strong March sun and while surface temps are marginal. Even if the EC verified, 4-8 inches is more likely for areas that remain all snow except a few locales in the higher terrain.

      1. Arod I am well aware of the situation and what you think may happen. I am however searching for a surprise outcome. That to me is fun rather than just arguing everyone’s guesses on snow fall potential.

  262. That’s based on 10:1 ratio, even if you change that to 5:1 you are looking at close to a foot.

    1. Nice stuff Hadi. At 5:1, that would be 6-9 inches.

      9Z SREF snow ratios, mostly between 5:1 and 10:1, certainly closer to
      5:1 right near the coast. 😀

      This business about the sun angle ONLY applies if there is not
      enough intensity, otherwise it’s happy horse doodoo and something
      to talk about. 😀

      Btw, last night Todd indicated that there would be NO accumulations on
      the roads during Thursday because of the solar radiation coming through
      the clouds. Um, Well. I screamed in the Living room last night: “That’s
      BullS***!!!” My wife thought I was screaming at her. 😀

      So, we’ll see.

        1. If intensity is not there, absolutely. If the intensity is there, it doesn’t mean a hill of beans. 😀

          1. Not sure I agree and I’m also not sure intensity will be there all the times. It will be more like bands of heavier precip mixed with bands of lighter precip. It won’t come in like a wall 😀

          2. Therein, lays the problem for accumulations.
            How intense will be the snowfall.

            With a cold storm with duration, snow rates of
            1/2 inch per hour can really add up by the end, HOWEVER, should this system only snow at that rate, then I AGREE, sun angle would matter.

            If, on the other hand, it were to snow at an equivalent rate of say 2 inches per hour, then
            It won’t matter. 😀

            1. And there is where we disagree. I do not see a wall of 2 inch per hour snows consistently battering the area. I’d love that if it did but I’m not sure that happens.

  265. Now, there’s some BIG time radar echos!!!

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    And here is the latest surface pressure map: (down to 992mb)

    http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

    Another view:

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

    I really think that this thing is intensifying more than what was forecasted.
    Not sure what the implications will be for up here, but it would make sense
    that a stronger storm might have a more expansive precipitation shield.

    We shall see.

    1. System still making very little progress to the North OR East for that
      matter. Appears to be hugging the coast with a slow Northward or NNE
      drift. Thoughts?

    2. Looks like an eyewall forming! Certainly stronger than originally forecasted. However, stronger does not necessarily mean more expansive. It certainly is impressive to say the least. I’d love to get whalloped by this storm!

    3. I hope to be able to tell you that I have a foot on the ground with it still snowing like crazy! 😀

  267. Think I will jump off this crazy weather-go-round and take an afternoon nap. Its cold and rainy here in Lynn… Nothing exciting to report. VIVA CAMP BUST! 😉

  268. Eric Fisher ‏@EricFisherTWC

    Just had a chance to look at ECMWF at 36k’ (love technology). Snow chances still look best eastern New England, Thur pm-Fri am

  269. The euro I think is for concern, as I look at the last 4 runs they have been close, I still think it’s overdone BUT it grabs my attention, we will see whos will verify, fun times

  272. I’ll be heading up to Burlington this evening and then to Medford in the morning. I’d be happy to report my observations from there and then again when I return to Plymouth tomorrow evening. Hoping the commute home tomorrow will be on wet pavement as advertised by some!

      1. Thanks Vicki! I will be very happy when the ATM is up and working and I can start heading towards home!

  273. Interesting the NAM, GFS, and EURO come in around the 6 inch mark for may area. I am surprised the NWS out of Albany has not issued a winter weather alert considering those three models on their last runs are showing that. I am not expecting too much tonight. I think its Thursday night and into Friday morning when most of the accumulating snow will happen.

  274. Eric Fisher ‏@EricFisherTWC

    Best guess for snow winners: a box roughly between Providence, Worcester, Andover, and Taunton. #Saturn

    1. If we get it, completely agree with the timing on that. Storm does not get going until tomorrow. We better hope that the bulk of precip falls during Thursday night vs during the day if we want accumulating snow. However, I do feel our best chance indeed is thursday night into friday.

        2. If I’m allowed to respond to your question, yes, coastal areas will be 5:1 since precip will be tinkering on the edge between frozen and liquid precip 😀

      1. Cool chart! Unfortunatel, it only relates to snow water equivalent with regards to 2 m temps and not the rest of the column higher up. The lowest snow ratio according to that chart is 10:1. You can cut that ratio in half as it pertains to this storm and therefore halve the snow totals as depicted by the models.

    2. Nice Coastal. Wish they had better and smaller temperature ranges.

      For this situation, would loved to have seen ranges like:

      30-31,32-33,34-35,36+

      Oh well. Very nice stuff anyway!!

      Thanks

  284. 18z NAM consistent with the 12z NAM for my area.
    Been getting this drizzle with flakes mixing in when the precipiation comes down harder. In between the sun came out.

  285. Hadi: WSW has been posted for Providence. And, if you read the Watch, Boston is included. But, when you check weather.com for Boston you just see the Coastal Flood Watch.

      1. Framingham seems to be sitting on 6 inch line. 5 is about the same except they have 4-8 in sw suburb area. Terry E on BZ told Baileyman (who thought some areas would see 5-10) on blog he didn’t think anyone would get 5-10 because ratios would be too low

    1. He should have been paying attention to this blog. I was suspicious of the DC, Balt, Philly corridor. I believe I predicted snowlovers there would be “spitting nails” in the end. The next shot of Cantore should be of him paying tolls on the Mass Pike on his way to Worcester or Natick

      1. I worked for a bear of a woman when I first got out of school. I had never heard anyone before nor since say “spitting nails” I love the phrase and I grew to understand and admire the woman.

  289. Joshua the WSW Hadi was referring to was winter storm warning.
    I don’t think warning level criteria at least 6 inches will be met for areas at or near the coast. The elevated areas across the interior to me have the best shot at warning level snowfall.
    If I am wrong I am wrong but that is the way I see it.

      1. This is what has me concerned for us snow lovers:

        “It was brought up the East wind aloft and above freezing bearing temperatures closer toward I-95 major cities could make or break this storm potential. Meaning with each factor (East wind & above freezing temperatures) snow could fall but not nearly the amount forecasted. We are now observing that to be the case.”

          1. Agreed.

            However, there still remains the question of
            the intensity of the snow. We’ll need it to come
            down at a reasonable rate to achieve any
            decent accumulations.

            So to me, the issue is NOT Snow vs rain, it is simply How much snow.

            It will be most interesting to see. 😀

  291. Does anybody remember what % of the measurable is going to fall during daylight? 🙂

    Looked at all available data – no change to amounts at this time.

  293. On twitter:
    Latest sref plumes narrowing the mins and highs. Has a jackpot mean of between 11-14 inches from Fitchburg to Worcester to PVD, Norwood/BOS

    1. Really. That is unbelievably FUNNY!!!!

      We all should visit him, wherever he decides to hang out!!!!

      😀

    2. No way really. I was just screwing around with my comments above! We can predict the future here!

  298. Latest OBS from LOGAN:

    temp: 36, Dewpoint: 31 -SN Winds from 060 gusting to 37

    This is on the Water. There is Absolutely NO doubt that this will be a SNOW
    event. Just a question of how much. 😀

  299. Most of the meaningful precip falls between Thu 9am-Fri 2am i think, sunrise tommorrow is 6:15am and sunset is 5:45pm, it will be tough for it to accumulate between 9am-5pm even if it’s snowing moderately, will c

  300. I’m afraid my post might have gotten lost in the middle of the 800 other posts. Coastal and Arod–thank you for the answer to my question about the white pellets falling from the sky. I happened to read it during lunch so I grabbed a bunch of kids from an icky indoor recess and we went outside to look. They were so excited–to be outside with this crazy teacher making them pick up the little pellets to see if we could break them or not. And yes we could. So, I got to be the best teacher ever.
    Old Salty, I’ve been meaning to thank you–prior to the blizzard, I start posting your maps outside my room so we got to sort of track the storm, which was way cool–all these kids standing outside my room looking at weather maps.

    4. Those kids are very lucky to have you as their teacher, Deb!! 🙂 Who knows, maybe because of today’s lesson one of your students just might end up pursuing a career in meteorology! Now wouldn’t that be cool!!!

  302. The NWS point forecast, FWIW, has removed the 2-4 inches for my area tomorrow and changed it to “little or no snow accumulation”.

    2. That’s very low. I do think Woburn gets a good 2-4 inches later tomorrow into friday night.

  305. CH 5 NEEDS TO STOP PUTTING FUTURECAST SNOWFALL MAPS ONLINE! UGH!!

    All it does is confuse people.

    1. Ch 5 maps annoy me to no end. You can’t find their map without scrolling and then it pops off the screen. I thought it was just me being annoyed

  306. TK has the storm now moved to the day on Friday? I thought it was mostly over Friday am. My daughter has an ultrasound – she’s small so dr wants to check baby size – its in newton at 1:30 pm. Do you think it will be risky driving.

    1. Storm does go into friday but most main roads will be mainly wet. Whatever accumulation does occur likely accumulates on grassy surfaces, driveways and backroads. I think your daughter will be fine.

  307. a mix of rain,sleet and snow here in billerica. depending on intensity. think it will change over to plain snow after midnight tonight

    i bet this kid that said i new nothing about weather that we will have school tomorrow. he will be needing to by me a coffee and a chocolate chip muffin.

    i do noth think we get much accumulation through tomorrow but late afternoon and all of tomorrow night we will have to deal with accumulation but i do not think anyone but the higher terrain of central mass will see more than 8 inches.

    1. Too funny! if Worecester gets zilch and Boston’s all snow. Anything’s possible with this storm 🙂

    3. Actually, that shows nearly a half a foot of snow almost all the way down to the southcoast so much more impressive than the other models in those locales.

      3. Tk yoYou told us at one point this winter don’t always believe what the models put out. Some here heard you. I learned a lot the day you said that.

        1. We all heard him, John. But that doesn’t mean things are not up for interpretation. TK will be the first to admit that even he is not infallible. 😉 Models have been and will continue to provide an important piece to the whole picture.

          2. Agree but this winter they have not been to consistent. Frustration for someone like myself who is trying hard to learn them.

  312. Hi everyone –

    What’s the Woodshill.net group’s prediction for Logan as far as impact of this storm? Rain? Snow? Wind? Timing? Any issues expected for hopeful fliers on Friday morning, or are we in post storm mode by then?

    Thanks in advance…

    3. My business associate ended up getting a room at an airport hotel. His plane leaves very early fri. He was worried about the commute

  314. NWS finally lowering their totals on the map.

    Too many outlets have been treating this thing like it’s occurring in January. I’m surprised they did for so long.

    3. So true TK. It’s not like we’re just coming off a 10 day arctic outbreak and everything is still cold and locked up solid.

  315. DT at WXrisk in his last post is a funny guy stating that he was correct all along… totally upset at the “New Englanders Weather Weenies” but he calls for Possible 12″-18″ snow fall. I think he will be definitely wrong there!!

    2. That only thing I’ll say is that the site has been amusing to read the last few days.

  317. A link below to a surface map animation as this transitioned to an off-shore low pressure. Note the collapsing snow shield after it transitioned from a land based storm. So – does this foreshadow our weather eventually despite the models or does it support the models? I thought someone mentioned earlier DC was supposed to get snow today, that did not pan out too well if true. Finally, TK mentioned something about DC, what does that tell us about Boston/SNE Thurs/Fri?

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx?region=r08&animate=true

    1. i have something. the nam,euro and gfs was right yesterday compared to all the other high resolutional models. so maybe we need to look at them even if it is close in time.

  318. before my front garden is rebarried with what might fall. i saw some small plants growing. right up against the house

    1. Matt as I noted above but may well have been lost in all the comment, the daffodils on the side of my house are now up about 6 inches and the buds are getting full. Used to be very end of April that they bloomed

      1. this is the normal time when i start seeing things grow in the garden. last year was stupid how early i saw them start. mid febuary. also beleive you are further south and my yard do to the marsh . instead of a level 6/7 im more of a 5/6.

  319. When is the show supposed to start. At the moment I am feeling as if “that’s all she wrote……”

      1. Plus all if the big winds seemed to have blown themselves out. Either its the quiet before the storm or the quiet period

        1. its eindy here with light snow/sleet i think rain is mixing in though. but it is extremely windy here. advisory level i think.. precipitation going sideways

      2. Patience. 🙂 Another one of these scenarios where there needs to be an interaction btwn a disturbance that is currently north of the Great Lakes and the northern precip shield of the ocean storm.

        I find the thin streams of precip coming in off of the ocean quite interesting.

        1. I was wishin and hopin as the old song said…..would like to see this fizzle for the sake of too many along the shore.

          I noticed hull closed tomorrow too

          1. Wow, we’re still on in Marshfield and I hope it stays that way.

            I think the morning tide is high around 7 to 8am and its a big tide on the level, so, with the ocean whipped up, the winds getting stronger, we are already 2 ft above normal, tomorrow morning in Hull and Scituate is going to be tough.

        1. Cool !! Yes, my guess is these showers are not very tall, yet, they are almost convective, so, for a brief moment, the precip intensity is extremely heavy.

    2. It’s started. Some areas will be snowing by dawn. Location tomorrow throughout Friday morning will be key. Tomorrow afternoon and especially tomorrow night will be the meat and potatoes of this storm. Winds will be increasingly getting worse tonight and very much so getting worse as we go through the day tomorrow. I fear for the coast like scituate. I heard something tonight that brought me back to the no name storm. It was said because of the wind and three high tides places like scituate could be plowing debri and not snow. The morning after the no name storm they were plowing foster ave in Marshfield all the houses and foundations, I will never forget that. I so hope this is not the case with this storm. This could be devastating for the coast.

      1. John you actually brought tears to my eyes. They were plowing debris after feb 9. I’m afraid after this the debris will be so buried they won’t find it for years.

  320. I’m looking forward to the weekend. I dont know about inland locations, but I cant recall seeing much sun in …….. Forever !!!

    However, day by day, the sun is climbing quickly high in the sky, so, if there’s a fairly sunny day this weekend, I think some may be surprised by how strong the midday sun has become.

    1. I already announced the deck will be shoveled. I plan to sit out by the fire ….. Wrapped in layers of blankets or not

    3. Our deck faces west, so its nice and sunny in the afternoon and the house shields us from the chilly spring sea breezes.

      I would love to have a couple 50F days soon. That would feel wonderful !

      1. I will make three humble pies. One for OS, another for Hadi and yet another for KL 😀

  324. I wonder if the east facing sides of the White Mtns in NH have been clobbered with snow today.

    Noticed an area of precip up in that area all day and with the surface winds and some easterly flow above the surface, I’d think those mtns are squeezing all that moisture out.

  325. While we’re waiting for the radar to start paying attention to us Vicki how about a couple more definitions for our Glossary?

    Snow Camp (n) a place where happy people reside; a blissful, seasonal condition for many that can arrive in early October and last until April Fools’ Day (adj) used to described a peaceful state of mind

    Bust Camp (n) A seemingly eternally miserable place similar to purgatory or hell; (adj) anger; bitterness; despondency

      1. The campfire is a perfect image of firery hell. It’s the antithesis of cold – you know, “good and evil” (we can still roast marshmallows though) 🙂

          2. And in hell you don’t even have to get up and bend over the fire to get an even browning or worry about your marshmallow falling off the stick and landing in your lawn to be stepped on and dragged into the house by the dog or your kids. Since it’s hot all around you, you just sit there motionless, let it brown-up and pop it in your mouth.

            (God I’m bored right now with this radar!)

    1. More than funny. And this week is one very long week. I have been thinking its Thursday all day

  328. @MassStatePolice: DCR and MSP to close Winthrop Shore Drive and Revere Beach Boulevard at 11 pm tonight until further notice bc of expected storm surge.

  330. level 1 snow event 95 corridor south and east (snowfall less than 4 inches)
    west of there level 2 snow event with those areas exceeding 4 inches. I don’t see double digit snowfall with this storm system although I would not be surprised if elevated areas of SNE get 6 7 inch amounts of snow.

  331. I would like to know what the meteorologists at the NWS out of Albany are looking and not placing my county in CT under a winter weather advisory like the rest of CT. The NAM, GFS, and EURO all show solid advisory level snowfall.

  332. been a icy mix of snow,sleet,freezing rain. rain. basically everything all day. we actually had a coating of sleet on my way home. this afternoon.
    wind has been picking up through out the day. and the precipitation comming off the water is really fasinating . wondering if this will not aid in the precipitation amounts during the storm?

  333. i do still want to know why the weather channel has 8-12 inches for my area. and then their forcast for billerica calls for 8-14 inches of snow. they clearly do not know how new england works. since they mainly worry about everyone else but us. they think nyc is the furtherest north. that the east goes. they are the only ones on tv that is saying that. and also i think they are the largest model huggers of the tv world.

  334. What’s the weather like right now near Boston Hadi or anyone else nearby. Is it a steady, light rain at all or is it just drizzle and mist and all that?

    It’s below freezing here now and I’ve got 3/4″ on the snow board.

  336. I just took a look a DT’s fb page… OMG, what a truly vile person. I feel like I need a penicillin shot and a rabies vaccine now.

      1. He’s been doing that for awhile. I remember his rants on the old weather newsgroup on usenet back in the late 90s and early 2000’s.

      2. I had never heard of him until this past week. He is a met who has become infamous for his vulgar postings on facebook.

        1. Does he still have that business where he does climate work for business? If so I hope he doesn’t treat his customers like this.

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