Simply Complex

600 Comments

9:05PM

7:30AM update to adjust snow (again)

This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. Climate says that these 2 times of year are not the same, and storms act differently on a local scale in response to the variance in climate from one time of winter to another. This was a major factor in my analysis going into the forecast for this prolonged late winter storm, and based on it, I’m not making any great changes to the overall thinking from the last update. The snowfall tweaks will come from the fact that I expect the heaviest precipitation to be confined to areas mostly south of Boston. The limiting factor of daylight will play in still, keeping snow amounts down, since a significant amount of the measurable precipitation will occur during the daylight hours of Thursday. Come Thursday night, most of the visible accumulation will occur. Moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north will occur, especially in coastal areas, but without an accumulation of heavy, wet snow in these areas, power outages will be limited. High tides Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday morning will be the most significant in terms of flooding, though mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected. The most significant flooding is likely to occur in the Sandwich MA area on the Friday morning high tide. All of this will be taking place due to a storm with a very large circulation moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast, passing south of New England. It will be with us through Friday. Snowfall amounts through Friday: 0-2 Cape Cod & Islands up along the eastern MA shore to eastern Cape Ann, 2-6 elsewhere except 6-9 in the higher elevations mainly from southern Worcester County MA into northern RI. A few of the higher elevations further north in Worcester County to southwestern NH may see 5+ depending on how steady the snow is on Thursday night through early Friday. It’s important to note that these are snow totals but there will probably never be that much on the ground from this storm at any given location, due to melting during the storm.

After this is all done, a more quiet pattern will set it. A more in depth discussion of the weekend and early next week will follow on the next blog entry.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT & THURSDAY… Overcast with periods of snow, except rain/mix toward Cape Cod. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, some stronger gusts Cape Cod & Islands.

THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY… Overcast with snow and some mix, heaviest south and southwest of Boston, tapering off as more of a mix during the day Friday. For total accumulations see above. Temperatures cooling middle to lower 30s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 33. High 49.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 37. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 41.

600 thoughts on “Simply Complex”

  4. I realize that the main storm has not arrived yet, but here in Lunenburg it has been snowing heavily for more than an hour. Everything is snow-covered, including the roads.

        1. I’ve never had this before a year or so ago. It took me a bit to figure what caused it. It’s just plain annoying

  10. Thanks tk, haven’t changed my thinking of coating to 2 inches in Boston, 1-3 inches along and inside 128 down I95 to Providence, 2-4 inside 495, and 3-6 inches northern Worcester cty and 4-8 in southern Worcester cty northeast ct and northwest ri, I’m gonna either go down in a big ball of fire with this forecast or be right, will c, I’ve looked at every model that I can to come up with this I’m sure like most of you, let the best forecast win, have a good night everyone 🙂

      1. I’ve said this last night but it is possible that the snow changes to freezing rain inland, could be an issue on trees Fri am, just something to watch

        1. I asked about freezing/ice accumulation yesterday and was told it would not be an issue. I apologize that I can’t remember who told me. The downside of asking too many questions. 🙁

          1. Maybe there right and I’m completely wrong but IMO after the snow there could be a light drizzle or rain and a temp around 30 degrees

          2. The temp at the surface would have to be below 32F for freezing rain, while its raining.

            Just not going to happen in this event. As the precip winds down, it’ll end as rain as temps rise thru the 30s.

            1. Still no. 🙂

              When the temps get to their lowest, its going to only happen when the precip is the heaviest, because the cold air is above.

              Once the precip begins to let up, it will end as plain light rain, because without the heavy precip cooling the column, the surface temp will begin to rise.

              IE, if some mod to heavy snow materializes tomorrow night, you’ll see many spots be btwn 31-34F. But, as soon as the precip intensity eases Friday morning, those temps will slowly rise.

  13. And no snow on the runways at Logan…

    I did some googling and learned that high winds are not an issue for commercial jets as long as they are not crosswinds. Planes need to reach a certain airspeed before the can lift off, and so if they are taking off into a strong wind, they will actually reach that airspeed sooner, and can take of on less runway.

    My office is on Fan Pier and it overlooks Logan. I can tell you from first hand observation that the jets take off into the wind, which sometimes means they are going right over our office building. The sailboats on the moorings point in to wind and the flight path of the jets is always aligned with the wind.

    Feeling somewhat confident that weather won’t derail my itinerary on Friday. Vicki, I hope your colleague has good luck too.

    1. “When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. “

  16. The NAM continues to be presistent and show several inches of wet snow. I would be shocked if that verified as the NAM tends to over due QPF. The 0z GFS I believe will have QPF far less than that.

  17. Seeing HRRR which a very good short term model showing snow in the Boston and Cape Cod area by tomorrow morning.

      1. Cool…hanging up the roof rake this time. 🙂 Thanks for the update. Been on Mt. Zion lately?

        1. I was on Mt. Zion for a few minutes this afternoon picking my friend up. I’ll be back there for a drop off in about 2 hours.

            1. Sometimes. 😉

              Usually from sometime after 2AM until around 7AM. Sometimes I’m up later depending on the day / weather. 🙂

        1. HA…you know it man. Building up at the end of my driveway as I speak. I have the garage grate 95% covered with a cover so not too worried about that. Trust me…come Saturday I’ll have a cleanup to do. Good memory by the way 🙂

          1. That is good. Maybe your neighbor can help with the spring cleanup…

            My sump pump has off for a few days now and the water is drying up in the bottom. Lets keep it that way.

            1. Yeah that’s good. Hoping Spring rains won’t be too bad this season. Nothing will beat that Mother’s Day storm…

  26. From Matt noyes ” Salisbury, MA, Director of Emergency Operations Bob Cook lets NECN know there are “mandatory evacuations” for immediate ocean front, Atlantic & Central Ave, North End Blvd up to #400. Though “mandatory evacuations” cannot bring forcible removal of residents, Salisbury is urging these affected residents get out tonight (Wednesday). The director makes a point most emergency managers would like to get across – in summary: we cannot force you to leave, but if you decide to stay, we truly may not be able to reach you if you need help.”

    i really want to know who else is recording alot of wind because the wind has been non stop here in billerica. not sure if its do to elevation or if its just plain windy over the location. higher winds in some of the mix batches of precipitation bands comming off the water. have a layer of sleet on sidewalks ,deck, and backyard.
    im sticking with my snowforcast from earlier this evening
    http://mattsouzaweather.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/snow-is-not-the-only-part-of-this-long-duration-system/

  27. Ok, so Pete has a 57 on Monday, Harvey a 53 and Todd a 54. Bring it on. With the clocks going forward Sunday and a nice Monday the feel of spring wil be in the air!

  28. The fb page “northeast storm central” saod that the rpm.model brought 1-2 feet of snow for.providence and boston. Lol why even post such a thing that wont.happen, who knows, we might have a suprise

  29. Can I go to Camp Bust??? Selfishly happy that my ride back to the South Shore won’t be bad tomorrow. The drive to Burlington was BRUTAL! A little rain and sleet and you would think these peole were driving in a blizzard.

  31. Wind is howling here in Quincy!! Also snow coming down pretty hard very wet as well. Temp at 34.5 degrees and slowly dropping.

  32. Moderate snow in Brighton at 4:14am, with a temp of 30 degrees. Light snowcover on roads.

  35. Winter Storm Warnings back up for most of Eastern MA. Snow Camp membership desk has expanded operations to 24×7 to handle influx of volume overnight. Bust Camp refugees welcomed.

    2. Haha. I’m on hand now to keep a list of new members so give a hollar or toss a snowball in my direction if you need help ⛄❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄

  36. Waking up to a nice coating of snow here. Seeing those bands rotating to the west on the radar. I am in the snow camp and have not changed my snowfall predictions.
    Level 1 snow event for 95 corridor south and east meaning snowfall 4 inches and under
    Level 2 snow event for areas west of 95 and especially up in elevation meaning snowfall in the 5 to 10 inch range.

  38. Coating still in Quincy. Snow slowed down earlier this morning but has picked up. Temp is 33 degrees and smaller flakes now.

  39. Hey Arod, hows that Wet Bulb treating you this morning? 🙂

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    510 AM EST THU MAR 7 2013

    .SYNOPSIS…
    A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW…SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
    FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS INTO FRIDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
    ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OF RAIN
    SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THE TREND APPEARS
    TO BE FOR DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER.

    &&

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    A VERY DIFFICULT AND LOW CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS BEEN
    ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

    THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND
    EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER
    DEWPOINT AIR WAS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM NORTH AND COMBINED WITH THE
    PRECIPITATION INTENSITY HAS ALLOWED FOR BOTH WET BULB/DYNAMIC
    COOLING. MOST AREAS WERE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW…EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
    SOUTHEAST MA COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WAS ALLOWING
    FOR A WARM ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RAIN CURRENTL

  41. Wind whipped mix of rain and snow. Strong wind gusts …….

    Charlie, I was looking at the WATD 95.9FM (Marshfield) weather forecast and tonight’s forecast says……

    Snow, 2-4 inches that may mix with freezing rain. So, I’m still not sure I agree with the idea of freezing rain, but Rob Gilman and company from WATD are usually pretty accurate. 🙂

    1. Wow, the wind is extremely strong and the snow part of the mix is literally horizontal !!

      High tide approaching. The poor coastline.

  42. Does anyone know how the models verified yesterday NAM, GFS, EURO for the mid Atlantic with qpf. ?

    Maybe we’ll have to get the O.S. crack research team on that.

    1. the gfs and nam were spot on. for them They were predicting less than 3 inches for the Dc area while others were saying 6+

  43. Retrac I don’t about QPF but I heard a report that in D.C. the EURO out performed the american models according to the meteorologists down there.

      1. D.C. was a tough forecast to begin with. You had the northerly wind but no cold air for this system to work with and
        the dynamics did not come together for the storm to create its own cold air there. Of course west of D.C. and in parts of
        Virginia a whole different story with some places getting well over a foot of snow.

  45. Snowing pretty good here. Bordering on moderate. Vis a bit above 1/2 mile or so.
    Everything covered, Including the streets!

    06Z NAM qpf:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

    0Z CMC qpf:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&lang=en&map=na

    That’s a healthy 50-75MM OR roughly 2-3 inches!!

    0z Euro looks crappy for what it’s worth. I think qpf way down on that run.

    Anyone have the final euro qpf?

    0Z UKMET qpf:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR&lang=en&map=na

    25mm or about 1 inch

    0Z FIM total qpf:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.cgi?keys=fim9:&runtime=2013030700&plot_type=totp_sfc&fcst=090&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0&wjet=1

    1-2 inches.

  47. Snowing harder still here. Vis under 1/2 mile moderate to borderline heavy snow.

    Latest Logan OBS at 6AM
    Light snow, vis 1.5 miles, temp 33, dewpoint 30, wind gusting to 33 from 020 degrees.

    Providence:
    Light snow, vis 1.0, temp 32, dew 30, wind gusting to 33 from 010 degrees.

    Marthas Vineyard:
    light snow, temp 35, dew 34 Wind gusting to 39 from 020 degrees

    Norwood, light snow vis .75 miles

    Certainly looks like there are no boundary layer issues.

    😀

  48. The good news with the roads is the conditions should improve with some solar radiation and the intensity of the snow should drop off. Tomorrow morning commute looks to be tricky again as it does not take much to grease up the roads. I always find when we have little in the way of accumulation we tend to see the most accidents happen.

  49. I don’t know how accurate this pressure map is, but IF this is accurate, we’re in for it!!

    Look at this position of this thing! Look at the placement of that high to the North.

    GAME ON!!

  50. Moderate snow in JP. Liking the 4-8 forecast to verify IMHO and maybe some 10-12 spots tonight.

    1. Thanks Hadi. Down a little, but very respectable.

      Taking the other models into consideration, 1.5 seems almost a sure bet.
      Perhaps even more than that the way things look right now. 😀

      1. Absolutely!!! I’m pumped! I’m awaiting some big news from work to should be a great day!!!

  54. Conditions appear a bit colder overall, OS the wind directions from your observations are telling, perhaps more NNE/N than expected?

    1. I was just reporting the OBS from NWS sites.

      Wind direction pretty much where I thought they would be. Perhaps just a bit
      more Northerly component. I was thinking about 030 degrees and we have
      020 at Boston.

      btw, that is a great wind direction if you like snow. 😀

      2. he is allowed to play. he has a family you know. you can not work for 24 hours straight. and im pretty sure you would not like calls at 1am in the morning.

  56. 29 degrees, light coating, and snowing lightly in Westborough. Is it just me or is the current position of the low pressure center much farther northwest than forecasted?

  58. Moderate wind-swept snow out here in Sherborn – roads are snow covered. Small limbs and large branches in the road during the morning walk with the dog. This was supposed to start tonight in earnest, correct?

  59. Came one mile east on Rte. 139 and increased in elevation by ~ 25ft. Went from mix of 70% rain/ 30% snow at my house to nearly all snow here. Sticking ever so slightly on the grass.

  60. Impressive circulation with this storm system and its big to say the least.
    Will see how the snowfall plays out. I MIGHT have to include more areas in the level 2 snowfall.

  61. Snow is not feathers here but its not terribly wet either. It’s actually drifting a bit with the wind.

  62. Snowing moderately here in Hingham. Roads starting to get a light covering. Sidewalks covered. Winds were going pretty good last night but as far as I can tell no new tree damage. Winds here seem to have let up a little bit right now…still gusty but not quite as steady as overnight.

      2. Vicki, I ate the pie and took a nap after watching the microsvopic snowflakes fall. It looks like powdered sugar here. Thats about it. White rain. 😉

  65. Still moderate snow and looking at radar not let up anytime soon. As long as it stay moderate it will accumulate. Once it lets up it will stop sticking. Everything is covered here, side roads etc…

  70. Clearly we are overachieving so far. 2.4 at Taunton. 3 inches in Manasfield. I had to shovel car already and will have to again prior to driving in.

  71. the way the snow is here in billerica is light but the kind of snow is small dry flakes. If it stays as small dry flakes we might be in for a surprise. and find the nam to be right?!?!

  72. This may put schools in a tough spot – bill of goods sold yesterday was wet pavement and little to no accumulation until tonight. As we move deeper into daylight hours will temps moderate or are we locked into accumulating snow for the day?

  73. Mark Rosenthal is calling for 6-12 inchs Boston down to about kingston and west even past Worcester. This thing could over achieve and with a good inch of snow on the ground before the daylight I think the snow will be able to pile up quicker. Snowing moderately in Quincy still.

    1. wow – 6-12 Boston south?? I tried to whistle with my keyboard but couldn’t figure how. I think it was in the cards out this way but wow. May turn out that WCVBs higher numbers all along verify.

  74. Glad I said the line “open to more tweaking” .. Did some and may still not be done. 🙂

    On the road for a while – checking in mobile during the day!

    Have a great day and be safe all. 🙂

  75. The snow has to come down hard to stick to the roads during the daylight hours. The sun is higher in the sky now. Overnight tonight is a different story and a tricky AM commute looks to be in store.
    Dry slot here where I am in CT. I would say .5 inches on the ground right now.

    2. JJ – very light snow is on our side road. With traffic on the main roads I am not sure. Husband drove Rt 30 Framingham to Watertown and roads were clear – that was at 5:30

  76. Schools are closed here. Driving in, I’m really surprised at the drifting. Snow is not that wet.

  78. Ughh the snow.keeps getting.dried up everytime.its reaching.the northshore, i live in reading.and.the snow is.bring.stubborn.and.wont.get.here lol. Is it me or does it look like southeast Ma will get the most accumulation according to.the radar

  80. Thanks, TK.

    In Sudbury the temp. is 28 degrees. Very light snow falling – have to look hard to see any snowflakes. Wind gusting occas. to approx. 20 mph. Light coating of snow on sidewalks and heavier on cars. I haven’t been out yet so I am just guessing about 1/2 – 1 inch of snow on grass.

  82. For all of the talk about spring elevation snow, this may be more of a south of the pike/east of 495 vs north of the pike/west of 495 show. Southeast MA looks like bullseye – though still early.

  83. Newton: steady light snow; sticking to grass and now to sidewalks and driveways; it is also heavy & wet and sticking hard to cars; about 1/2″ right now; temp is 31 — because of where I am and the cooling effects, I can’t see the temp here ever getting past 34-35 today; don’t see the possibility of rain at all. I am beginning to wonder about forecasted amounts being somewhat on the low side.

  86. TK, Baileyman is looking for you over at WBZ. You need to invite him into your rougues gallery here 😉

  89. Good morning, it’s all now casting, trying to figure out if we should leave to go home or just stay in southern vt, decisions decisions

    1. right Hadi. I keep having to remember that this isn’t really supposed to get going till later

  93. I am out of the dry slot now and the snow has picked up again. Its not sticking to the roads here. This seems to be the theme of the day with these bands of snow going from west to east. At times its not doing anything other times the snow is coming down pretty good.
    The wind here is gusting in the 20 -25 mph range and going to have to watch that tonight with this heavy wet snow because that combined with gusty winds we have a recipe for some power issues.

  94. I had gone to the store yesterday to purchase ingredients for a couple of humble pies I was going to make for Hadi and OS. However, I think I’m going to consume both pies myself. Wholy snow! 3+ inches in Westwood and coming down to beat the band. Good job Hadi and OS. I’ll eat crow on this one 😀

    1. 😀 Enjoy. (The snow that is, not the pie. :D)
      I’m hoping for early release today or No work tomorrow or something.
      Need the intensity to increase, because if it stays like this, it won’t accumulate
      too much or too fast. I presume the intensity will vary all day. 😀

      1. I am in Dedham and was really surprised at the amount of snow cover on the ground this am – I didn’t measure but I would guess close to two inches. Side roads were terrible…. now – will school be let out early??

    2. Turkey remember and it’s at rainshines house! Isn’t a person here who won’t be eating an equal sized portion!!! BTW – laughed loudly at the “wholy” snow

      1. Just let me know – the thought of roasted turkey, stuffing, mashed potato, gravy . . . yumm. I have to settle for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for lunch! 🙂

  95. Before I left for the office, measured 1.5 inches in JP at 7:45 AM.
    Driving to work, as Hadi indicated, side streets in JP and Mission Hill section of Boston were a Mess. Very slippery. Main roads had a slushy accumulation not affecting
    driving at all.

    Snow intensity has lightened up some. Vis around a mile or so give or take a bit, up from less than 1/2 mile.

    As Retrac says: GAME ON!

  96. Good morning fom Lynn! 32 degrees here with a pretty sugar-coating on foliage and grassy surfaces. A snowflake falling every now and then. Roadways are clear and traffic is moving right along at a normal clip. Yes, I have my shovel handy but certainly do not need it. Perhaps a broom? We shall see. Will toast more marshmallows in just a bit. 😉

  97. NWS

    7 AM UPDATE…
    PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TREND
    TEMPS LOWER ACROSS SE MA WHERE HEAVY PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL
    COOLING IN PROGRESS. PRECIP INTENSITY SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SNOW DOWN
    TO THE UPPER CAPE AT THE MOMENT INCLUDING MVY AND MIXING AT ACK! 00Z
    ECMWF MODEL OF CHOICE /WHATS NEW!/ AS ITS QPF AND THERMAL FIELDS
    MATCHING UP NICELY WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING.

  98. Looks like edge of heaviest precip cuts off from a north to south line from medfield to woonsocket, ri, to providence and down to newport. Dry slots to the west.

    1. I noticed that too Amy – looks like it is on a beeline due east, don’t see how we get meaningful QPF if that vector carries.

  102. I think DPW was following the Bust Team forecast yesterday… @MassStatePolice: MSP reports RT 495 in Plainville area snow coverd with one passable lane in both directions. Snow removal efforts underway. Expect Delays

    1. No way, they weren’t invited to join us. Never give the DPW an excuse to go on break! Viva Camp Bust!

      1. Lisa I am nominating you as my successor in case I should spontaneous combust or fall victim to a similar fate.

          1. You watch that show? LOVE that show but don’t know anyone else who really watches it. Can’t wait for next season!!!

  105. Hmmm

    This doesn’t exactly look right. This combined with the satellite image posted above
    and now I am wondering it this thing just doesn’t move off and be done with us?

    Will keep monitoring the radars and satellite.

    System progged to conitually throw precip Northwestward into our ares, even perhaps
    developing an inverted trough.

    We shall see.

  108. OS,

    If you look at Mark Rosenthals explanation I believe there is upper level energy passing by the great lakes that is going to grab the storm and pull it back a little throwing more moisture back at us. Don’t worry it will be very snowy tonight.

    1. TJ your correct. The upper level energy in the great lakes is going to tug this storm system back and throw in bands of
      moisture over us.

  111. 12Z nam still on track increasing precip intensity later today/tonight…looks like the trough that TK talked about last week will be setting up then and be responsible for the increase in precip

  112. Wow that thing is making a beeline for somewhere……..this gets curiouser and curiouser. Amazing how each system is more complex to forecast than the last.

      1. It’s been very consistent O.S past few runs. It had that deeper shading out in New York yesterday – now it’s on us.

  114. Leading edge of meat and potatoes moving in east to west, if this was happening at night it would be a huge difference

  115. As mentioned yesterday most snow from SNE is late Thursday into early from the upper trough rotating through and not from the main system, which I also mentioned could go further south and east than modeled. That seems to be the case and it is allowing some mid and low level drying to take place which is eating up some the of the precip and creating that hole in the precip shield that you are seeing on radar.

  116. The higher March sun angle helping here with the roadways as long as the precipiation remains light. If it comes down heavy during the day then the roads could slick up especially the side roads.

  118. Hey now…I see a lot of people busting on Camp Bust (get it?). We aren’t hiding…people in Camp Bust have kids to drive to school and work to get to and are just now checking in. 🙂 We’ll see how it plays out for sure…where I am it’s nothing but a light dusting. Interesting day for sure. We stand firm. 🙂

  119. Energy from the west should enhance the snowfall later today but can see why some would think this baby is leaving us.

    1. great explanations above as to why it’s not……….but the average person (that’s me) is in awe that you guys and the mets can see the pieces of the puzzle before they exist

      If only those on the BZ blogs, etc. could see firsthand what goes into forecasting these things. It is mind boggling

  120. Took a walk in a wood path outside my office…just enough snow to make it stunning…that being said, on two occassions it got really bright..sun trying to bust out. Renewed my faith in Camp Bust. 🙂

    1. I am keeping the campfires burning at Camp Bust, but I am pretty sick of marshmallows and campfire songs… Scrabble anyone?

  122. Weather Wiz it all depends on location. As I left the house I measured around 2 -2.5 inches and it was still thumping. We shall see.

  123. Any sense (I am in Woburn) as to how much snow will be on the ground by 5pm when work gets out?

    1. Wouldn’t it be funny if the NAM ended up right. During the blizzard here in CT this model was indicating some places could
      get close to 30 inches and close in on the 3 foot mark. It was pretty spot on so will see what happens here.

  127. Winds much quieter than yesterday. Would they be expected to pick up again or will they stay calmer with the bulk of the system off the coast? Also, snow here is much lighter than I expected. Perhaps that will change also??

    1. The main surface low appears to have been further suppressed to the south and east than originally modeled taking its expansive wind shield with it. I don’t expect winds to ramp up much and we will need to rely on an upper trough to enhance our snowfall later on. Still big bust potential!

  128. Energy from the west will capture the energy from the surface low as it heads east creating what will appear to be an inverted trough. Could be a bust west of 495 but eastern sections should be locked in the snow through tomorrow morning. Look at all that heavy snow moving in just south of Boston. They are getting nailed down there. It’s a private snowstorm so far while others are wondering if it will ever snow. Your time will come later today unless energy from the west is too late in capturing the surface low, then it’s Bon Voyage!

    In northern RI the disc of the sun is shining through the clouds.

  129. Snowing in Milton–maybe an inch or so. Looks better (meaning less snow), now than it did an hour ago. I’m happy in camp bust with my chocolate and peanut butter. I think I’d get in trouble if I started playing scrabble though, the whole work thing.

  131. All weather is local, so you may need to refer to your local Camp Snow or Camp Bust Chapter on this storm. Some will get more than expected and others less or perhaps none at all…

    @MattNoyesNECN: Unquestionable trend of last 12-18 hours for tonight has been to collapse heavy snow potential east, closer to the coast

  132. Snow is fairly light in Medford right now. Just talked to my mom who is in Plymouth with my youngest son and she said it is raining there. I just want the roads to stay clear for my commute back to the south shore.

  134. As soon as we get close to 4-5 PM this afternoon and the energy is there watch out. Looking out my window on Congress St still snowing at a good clip.

    Also when OS and I were calling for snow it was for the coastal areas that everyone was saying rain.

    1. 😀

      Looks like a bit of a dry slot or much lighter snow set to move in on Boston.

      Oh well, we wait and see what happens.

    2. Hadi – IIRC – The snow camp was saying all snow to the coast including Boston. No starting point but an ending point being the ocean. The non-snow camp was saying no snow east of 495. No starting point west but a definite ending point at 495. The almost snow camp ranged and was more difficult to define but basically it was snow east of 495 but not quite into Boston. And then we had one in the complete bust camp – no snow – and the head of camp bust 🙂

        1. But it will and you didn’t have a start time on that either……in the end and at some point everyone is right 🙂

  135. On Radar, looks like some decent snow moving East to West towards
    Woonsocket. 😀 I’m serious, not joking here.

  137. If this does pan out Boston will have above average snowfall for the season. I didn’t think that was going to happen in early February. What a difference a couple weeks make.

  138. From Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: Best course of action is 95/495/Metrowest prep for pot’l 6-10″ tonight, while i circle back w/ u after midday guidance

  140. I lost my oldest brother 16 years ago today and sitting in the car in a parking lot with sun visible thru moderate wet snow makes it feel like he is here with me…

  142. Hey Arod- My crew was told were here till tomorrow. Im still not on board with a major snow storm for boston, if I’m wrong I’m wrong. But could you catch me up on any changes if any for the boston area, north eastern college area as I will have limited access to my phone. Not that windy here and snow has backed off. I will pass on the information to my crew, thanks.

    2. John, wind has been predominant out of the NE and NNE. It is this wind direction that OS feared that is responsible for bringing down just enough cold air from northern new england resulting in snow. It’s fairly safe to say that the heavier snow totals that were progged for Worcester can now be shifted all the way to the coast including Boston. However, the immediate coast line may experience a more slushy type of snow. With NNE and NE winds in place as well as dynamic cooling mechanisms, accumulating snow will continue. Once the energy from the west arrives, it will steal some of the precip from the departing surface low and throw it back over eastern massachustts. Unfortnately, 6+ inches is not out of the question except for the immediate coastline, CC and the islands.

  146. Not questioning your numbers Charlie but 3.5 being reported in wrentham

    @WX1BOX: Nofolk County SKYWARN Net reports: Wrentham, MA 3.5″ of snow.

  147. 1″ to 1 1/4″ here in Sherborn, light snow/winds at the moment, snow globe snow, my favorite.

  148. In Lexington…dusting and little to any snow right now…like yesterday, comes and goes in waves but never heavy.

    2. Same in Lynn. Basically NADA… maybe a 1/2 inch of snow on ground. Roads are bare. Traffic is moving. Occasional wind. Tiny wafting snowflakes that dont really stick to anything. Temp outside is 34F.

  150. Piece of energy from the Great Lakes comes down and pulls the ocean storm back and this becomes an elongated system throwing back moisture from the ocean.

  151. TK – I read your comment above with tears. I truly believe your brother is with you – today and every day. Some days we feel it more. I lost my younger brother a little more than 17 years ago. Because of our mutual love of storms, I always feel his presence more during one. My warmest thoughts to you.

  152. TK – Did you see or did someone else post a comment from BaileyMan to you on BZ blog

    And one more time, Topkatt88 I truly miss your input, would love to hear how you see this storm? Bye~

      2. Vicki I think BaileyMan knows about the blog. I would love to see him hear on this blog. I wish he would not go into
        hibernation after winter is over since that is the only time of year you hear from him.
        Topkatt88 is TK. Topkatt88 is the name he uses on the BZ blog.

        1. Thanks JJ – I did know he was addressing TK but was curious if he wants to know TK’s thoughts why he isn’t just reading here

  154. Charlie says:
    March 7, 2013 at 10:41 AM
    I wouldn’t go by that hadi, they also have Walpole at .9 inches which is 2 miles away
    Reply

  155. Right now it appears I might have underestimated the snow total esp south of Boston, but alot of other places seem about right to this point, Logan may verify, still early

  157. It’s amazing that mansfield is already closing in on 5 inches and the storm has not even started yet. Totals likely will exceed a foot down there assuming energy from the west indeed captures the surface low.

  159. I’m sitting in a glass walled conference room on the 13th floor of a building in the Seaport District facing downtown Boston. It’s snowing sideways, and it’s only sticking to grass – the roadways are wet. The snow is hitting one of the conference room’s glass walls, and water is running down the glass. I can see all the buildings along Atlantic Ave and the ones across the street from them. Visibility is reduced, but it’s not terrible.

    2. It’s days like this I miss working downtown. I used to work at 100 Federal back in the late 90s and love watching the snow fall, the traffic and the people. Not quite the same out here in suburbia. Of course I don’t miss the commute 🙂

  161. Reports from outer cape and Truro are really bad. Big story will be the devastation to some of the coastal regions.

  162. Is this storm going to be a bust for folks like lowell, chelmesford, andover? There seems to be a sharp cuff off of precipitation as you head north of boston, is this going to change later when the storm gets really going?

      1. So there is no vapor loop or anything? I would think there is a way to see energy in the atmosphere.

    1. Crazy! I believe it’s only because Cambridge is part of Southeast Middlesex County. It sure has nothing to due with it’s proximity to the coast.

  166. You could see some snow showers around western NY and parts of northern western PA and that is the energy that is going to bring this ocean storm back and give it a zap of energy.

    1. JJ, respectfully, those are just lake effect snows you are seeking from WNW winds blowing across the lakes.

  167. NAM has 1.13 of QPF from 7 Pm tonight to 7 AM tomorrow morning.

    GFS has .59 for same time period

    Clearly big difference!!

    1. Snow ratios could approach 10:1 tonight as temps dip to the upper 20s, so even if GFS verified, 6 inches additional tonight is not out of realm of possibility.

  168. Coastal. I live in Westwood and interestingly, i had at least 3 inches before leaving my house for work at 7:30. Location, location, location.

  169. The snow let up a bit in Quincy about 30mins ago now its coming down moderately again. ALL SNOW HERE!!!

  170. All the heavy heavy snow is way to the south over plymouth county. I wish that came up here!

  171. Shoveled the inch or so from the walk and driveway this morning, threw out some of that Road Runner “beep-beep” stuff and wala! No more snow. Would love for it to stay that way throughout the remainder of the storm, but thinking I might have to “beep-beep” again tomorrow morning.

    1. I wonder if this is a trend that this feature is being further suppressed south and east. Perhaps higher snow totals will continue to trend south and east and miss the rest of the area. That would be a bust.

  175. Accumulations won’t begin until tonight. We are now seeing what the effects from a unfrozen ground and the March sun can do to snow accumulations.

  176. Hey all! Got back from my ski trip to Stowe late last night. Three amazing days of skiing and newly engaged to boot! 🙂 Brought everyone back a gift…snow! I def did NOT expect to wake up to this. I cleared off close to 3″ on my car in Easton and it was snowing harder on my way in to work in Walpole than ive seen it all winter, including the blizzard. Roads were terrible. Snowing a bit less intense here at work but just talked to my landlord back in Easton and said its still pouring snow over there. Plymouth and Bristol counties def getting pasted.

    3. Fool! Why didn’t you talk to us first??? 🙂 Just kidding. North was asking where you were yesterday.

  180. Arod I think tonight you will see the precip shield expand, but I do think the jackpot will end being inside 95 from Boston south. But I think further west will do fine bc colder temps so a fluffier snow.

  181. From the king

    @HarveyWCVB: Please do NOT think melting today means no more snow accum…SIGNIFICANT accum. likely tonight

    1. To their credit – ch 5 has been seeing more snow along the coast than the other two stations.

  183. I think TK had mentioned it in an earlier blog and based on what I observed during the blizzard, the magic wet snow amount on trees for them to start coming down is around 4 inches for the branches and with gusty winds, 5 to 6 inches for the trees themselves.

    Hope some of these amounts dont verify tonight or many, many people are going to be without power.

        1. LOL, I think it was sabotage by Camp Snow. Snow is barely sticking to trees and not to wires. ;-).

          1. Well said. Don’t worry…Camp Snow will be closed for the season soon. Camp Bust isn’t tied to a season…we are open year round! 🙂

  185. The problem is they are from accu pro and I get publish the links, I can report and i will be glad to give you numbers you need.

  187. I heard Cantore asked for a Saturn when he picked up his car rental at Logan yesterday.

    Ok, you may throw eggs now.

  188. From the 9Z SREF: 3 sets of 12 hours snow totals for 36 hours from 7AM this
    morning until 7PM tomorrow:

    7AM through 7PM today:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030709/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f015.gif

    7PM today through 7AM tomorrow:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030709/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gif

    7AM tomorrow through 7PM tomorrow:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013030709/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif

    Add these 3 and we have the 36 hour total snow.

    For Boston, that is something like 15-20 inches. Worst case, 1/2 that and we still
    are looking at something like 8-10 inches. 😀

  192. Guessing in the afternoon package we will be getting an upgrade to Winter Storm Warning, but I thought that yesterday.

    1. ok, the spin of saturn is the only permissible use of the storm name – clever file naming convention – cool link/thx Lisa

  195. Energy feeing into this storm now. Echos beginning to fill in. From mid-afternoon and onward it should be game on. Surface and ground temps should cool into tonight and snow will begin to pile up.

  198. From Matt Noyes

    @MattNoyesNECN: For non-techies…translation is: “Wow, some indications of lots of precipitation tonight, other indications of not as much.”

  200. It’s funny. This 48 hour storm looks like it will become more like a 12-18 hour storm with most of the accumulating snow occuring tonight into tomorrow morning.

  201. That rain/snow line ever so slowly creeping in off the east facing locales. Interesting to see on radar as the precip fills in to the west where precip is lighter, theres some pinks showing up, but in SE MA where the precip is the heaviest, its all snow baby! Even into the Vineyard!

  203. Tweet to me from NWS

    @NWSBoston: @hadikasrawi Still some model data to evaluate before we make that decision. Last of the data arrives after 205 pm EST. Stay tuned!

  205. The TV mets have some differences in the ending time for storm so some have 3-6 ” and others 4-8″. Most have Taunton as jackpot area.

  206. Henry Margusity this morning continues to insist that winter is over with no more east coast storms after this one. I tend to differ that there will be one more snow event before months’ end…maybe I ‘m wrong, but we will see.

    On that note, there has never been a 4″+ snowfall in Boston during DST. The highest total was 4.0″ in late April 1987. Had there not been a bust over eastern MA during the tail end of the Halloween storm in 2011 there might have been a shot of breaking the streak. There was a brief forecast of 4-8″ for Boston in the final stages but only 1″ fell instead.

    Let’s see how much falls at Logan after Sunday March 10th. 😉

  207. Dear bust and rain camps. I believed you, I trusted you, my heart feels heavy with betrayal.

    Kidding. BRING ON THE SNOW!

    And to the mets and plow drivers, thanks for your hard work keeping us safe!

        1. I know…one of us was going to be right, right? 🙂 As Baby’s father said to Johnny Castle in “Dirty Dancing”: “When I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong…” Not fully conceding yet though…

          2. Some people never admit they were wrong even when they knew they were wrong. It looks like I may be . Oh well great money.

        1. If that verified 10 inches could fall overnight on top of what we receive today. Snow ratios should rise as temps slip below the freezing mark and into the upper 20s tonight.

  209. Well I have to go in the 6-10 range with isolated 12 inch numbers around 95, Maybe Westwood, Dedham, or a little further south into Taunton 🙂

      1. places like sharon already at 6 inches, I could easily see 12-18 inch amounts in a location like that.

    2. Thanks for the great news. 🙂 Does it offer any sun, I’d take 10 below, as long as the sun is out.

      1. Sun will be out but 850 and 2 M temps looks pretty chilly, Big warm up Monday and Tuesday based on EURO

  211. All snow here now. Snowing fairly steadily, coming down horizontally, visibility fairly low. Funny part is, its barely sticking anywhere. (Yet 🙁 )

    2. Gotta love the march sun and the unfrozen ground. After dark will be a different story.

  213. It’s amazing. Woonsocket perhaps a couple slushy inches. Attleboro? A half a foot of snow so far and is just a few miles to the east.

  214. Hadi, thanks for the Euro numbers. That is UP. I saw that on Wundermap.
    ALSO, the Euro CLEARLY has the NORLUN feature depicted by the NAM. AND
    that qpf did NOT include the few tenths that had already fallen by 7AM.

    Could be some pretty big numbers tonight. The temperatures are hanging low.

    Was out at lunch. Temp Still 33. As Arod alluded to, if the temp drops into the
    upper 20s tonight or even only to 30, ratios will be up some.

    😀

  215. I hope the Almanac is right at the end of the month calling for two east coast storms in the last part of March to prove Henry Marguisty wrong. I will give him credit he said a storm would be brewing on the east coast around the 6th of March about a week and half ago.
    Philip great stats and info as always.

  216. 1:30 pm update from JR: So far 5″ in Mansfield. He is considering adding another color of 12″+ on snowfall map in this general location.

    1. especially if they already have 6 inches. Another 10+ could easily fall. Some places could see close to a foot and a half of snow!!!

      1. Hey John…. Its a 1-4 snowfall index I use. The higher the number the more snowfall. A 1-4 index is used for thunderstorms
        as well.
        Level 1 Dusting to 4 inches
        Level 2 5-10 inches
        Level 3 10-20 inches
        Level 4 20 plus inches

  220. I’m not clear on what the 95 area is – I consider us to be not far outside of 95 but I get the sense that it is not the 95 that is being referred to??

    2. I’m thinking it means from the 93/95 split south down to the 95/495 interchange and points south and east from there…the “south coast” LOL :8

          1. Odd – I always say 128 and the younger generation just looks at me and scratches their head. And yet we still use it as a boundary. Go figure. I for one never thought it should be changed so it works for me

  221. Eastern CT, Western RI and southern Worcester County haven’t seen a flake of snow so far.

  222. The radar is impressive. The bands come in off the ocean and intensify right over the North Attleboro area, right between 95/295 and up to the 495 interchange.

  223. Is there any accumulation expected out this way or does it appear the brunt will be east and southeast?

    1. I think you will see your fair share up there too Vicki later on tonight. I think that area i mentioned above is the only place the snow is really still accumulating. Even here in Walpole, its snowing moderately but no new accumulation since this morning

  224. The real question is, when does this snow ramp up??? I see now sign of that happening as of 2 pm.

  227. Some spoke of snow melting. Not so here. It is not accumulating on top of it as of a little while ago for 3 reasons in no particular order:

    1. Temperature is above freezing.
    2. The snow intensity was not particularly strong.
    3. It’s March 7, and the sun angle is fairly high up there.

    But what fell is still here. 😀 By the Way, the plowed my street this morning!

    With the vis dropping and sun angle lowering, I suspect it will now start
    accumulating again. 😀

    Visibility slowly dropping here again. Down under a mile again. Last obs from
    Logan had vis at .5 mile. 😀 with wind from 020 degree still.

    The wind here was actually stronger yesterday. 😀

    1. The lack of wind today is what has me concerned that this storm is moving away and we will need to heavily rely on the formation of elongated trough in order to get our heavy snow tonight. The wind forecast was a bust. But why? Surface low has been suppressed further to the south and east than models indicated. This is my concern.

    2. The next 3 hrs r the mildest part of day, the jackpot will be well south of Boston, 128 westward will not verify

  228. Just 24 hours ago we were discussing the possible of strong ENE and NE winds gusting to 40-60 mph along the coast. It was certainly windier yesterday. My concern is that the surface low is moving more east than north. As the center of circulation moves away, its taking its windshield with it which was forecasted to be on top of us. Remember what METS were saying? Wind was supposed to be a bigger factor than snow. We will need to rely on energy from the west to generate an inverted trough-like feature to get our heavy snow. If this does not occur, what you see is what you’ll get. Big bust potential still exists!

    1. Exactly, that’s what I think happens, we will see, some say heavy precip tonight, I don’t think so, I think after 8pm precip lightens to light wet snow or light snizzle again we will see

  230. Last time there was a big bust of a forecast was back in February 2010 when little if any snow accumulating in SNE when we were suppose to get several inches. I do agree the door is open just a tad for a bust. Going to be watching that energy over the Great Lakes and hope it could pull the system back if not then its a bust.

    2. That system over the great lakes better get moving. Seems to have been sitting there for a couple of days 😀

  231. I agree Arid about the energy, if it doesn’t connect its a bust for the big numbers, but I never thought we would be talking 12+ inches I thought 6+ so in my eyes we are easily going to achieve that.

    1. But if it’s a bust and that trough does not form, only a couple of places would have reached 6 inches. The rest of us are not even close to that amount and some places have only seen a trace of snow. What I’m saying is that if tonight doesn’t happen, then what you see is what you get–and it’s bon voyage to the strong winds, heavy rain and heavy snows that were forecasted to hit the area. It would be considered a region wide bust.

      2. Does that translate to every single person here was wrong and we all arrive at Rainshines this weekend to eat crow……..errrr turkey…….sounds fun!!

        1. I ate my crow this morning and eating my humble pie for dessert, but I still want to see some sort of a storm–not this nuissance stuff that is falling from the sky. If this is all the area sees with the exception of the south shore, then that would be dissappointing.

  232. You guys crack me up, now your going to call it bust if we don’t hit 12+ inches, I think clearly 6+ inches is going to occur.

    2. In reality – it was only a bust if there was no snow east of 495 and into Boston and unless I’m missing something………been there – done that!

      1. Bottom line–if said storm does not occur tonight, it was a big bust. The area was forecasted to be hit with powerful winds, heavy/snow rain, so whether or not it was snow/rain around 495, the storm on the whole is a complete bust if it never materializes in the first place. If Boston experienced 40-60 mph winds + 2 inches of heavy rain, the storm still at least materialized.

        1. works for me —- everyone was wrong and we all have a crow/turkey feast. Doesn’t get better than that!

    3. Nope. Not saying that. But if tonight does not occur only Mansfield sees 6 inches and the rest of the area sees 1-3 😉

  233. Do you want evidence that the storm is pulling away?

    First: winds have shifted to more northerly

    Second: earlier this morning, bands were moving in from east to west but now bands are moving from north to a more southerly direction. The orientation of the bands has shifted.

    Third: Cold air has made it all the way down to the Cape

    These three truths indicate to me that the surface low is pulling away. Waiting for evidence of a trough to set up.

  234. I called for 6+inches inside 95/128 and that will verify, and I believe a lot more. I also believe retrac will do fine bc of higher snow ratios in the Worcester area.

          2. I would say 8-10 inches, but just outside ie JP/Hype Park/Roslindale could end up being closer to 12 or even more.

            EURO paints 12-18 but with ratio of 10-1, will be more like 8-1 so that’s where i come up with my estimate.

  236. been snowing all day and not a coating on the darn moist ground 🙁
    it is really windy out.
    oh and i do not understand why people use unbrellas in the snow and wind . it does not work . My freind decided it was a great idea and opened it up and there it went right up the tree. she had me go get it.. luckily it was not to high 😉

    and right now im not really sure what to think about this storm. im not sure that we will be getting as much as the models are indicating and we are getting snow but there is no accumulation here in billerica once so ever. so i think the elevation is to do with it.

  237. Feels like storm is moving away. By the way, where I am in Boston (Chinatown) at the most 1 inch of snow so far. Public Garden perhaps 1 and a half inch. I went out to Brookline and there were 2 inches on the ground. Clearly nothing is accumulating at the moment. It looks like `after-the-storm’ flurries. This said, I was wrong about the temperature. It got to or below freezing last night in Boston. I do think that in the end the storm will not amount to much in Boston itself: 1 or 2 inches of glop. Exceptions being neighborhoods like JP, Hyde Park, Mattapan, Brighton, Allston. Burbs will have more as well.

  238. Ok, here’s my call.

    This is on top of what has already come down (I’m at 3.5″ at my house so far)

    My blend for Boston and Worcester is 60% Euro, 20% GFS, 20% NAM.

    With that blend, I figure 1.57″ qpf to come in Boston and 1.18 qpf in Worcester.

    I’m figuring a 6:1 ratio at Boston Common and 10:1 out here in hillbillyville.

    That puts the new subtotal above and beyond at 9.42″ for Boston Common and 11.80″ for Worcester Airport. I am then shaving 20% off the top because when it’s bright again tomorrow, it’s gonna cut back on totals.

    So, my call is 7.53″ for Boston Common and 9.44″ more for Worcester Airport. My bust potential is at Worcester Airport. If we get down to 27ish tonight, ratios will be 12:1 and they’ll be another 3-4 inches on top of the 9.44″ call.

  239. Made it safely back to Plymouth. The conditions worsened as I drove south and we have a wind-swept snow here but hasn’t accumlated at all.

    1. wait until after 5 pm. It will really begin to pile up tonight Sue. Glad you made it back safely!

  240. Clearly the NWS things this thing gets cranking tonight after dark. Calling for 6-12 inches region wide with a jackpot just southwest of the city of 10-14!

    1. boy if we get 10 inches here the storm is going to have to kick into high gear pretty soon……..although the snow is moderate at the moment but it’s done that on and off all day

      1. After 5 pm, the snow will start to stick. Then you’ll be in moderate to heavy bands for the next 12-18 hours. You’ll get there.

  246. Looks like the storm has stalled. Precip not sinking N to S or W to E. Waiting for the energy (where ever that is) to expand the snow coverage.

      1. I like those echos coming in from the Atlantic. I hope those bands hold up. Could be on to the start of something.

  248. I hope we get enough to plow in central mass. I had to come down from Nh just to plow. If we Don’t i am going to hold some people on this blogg accountable, Just kidding About the accountable part. we need a little funny on this blogg

  251. Latest obs from Logan.

    Snow, vis .5 mile, Temp 32, dew 31, wind gusting to 32 from 020 degrees.

    The temperatures are trending downward. I think the ratios are going to be
    higher than originally expected tonight. Amounts may be undone still.

    Temperature at Blue Hill (Elev 620 feet) is at 31. Highest all day was 32.

    And I “think” it is moving in, from the East!!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.3760869565217391&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=422.5&map.y=233.5&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

    I think this WILL materialize.

  252. A-rod… The 48+ hour storm is still just that. Regardless of how close I end up on my amounts (and yes I will bet updating soon) I’ve said that the vast majority of the snow accumulation would be tonight, and that is still the case (granted some areas south of the city got several inches before dawn today, which was indeed surprising, thanks to temperatures 1/2 to 1 1/2 degrees cooler than expected – that’s all it took).

    This storm was impacting the region yesterday and will continue to do so through much of tomorrow, just in terms of wind (and its impacts) and at least some precip in the area.

    1. Thanks TK! Why the low level drying over central MA and western RI today. There was quite the sharp cut off.

    2. When are you going to use the models again? I believe you threw them out 30 hours ago yesterday so I think you have been without them for 54 hours now. 🙂

  253. Any idea why all the low level drying in central MA and western RI???They haven’t seen much all day and continue to be cut off from the precip.

    1. Good question. I can only assume that layer was there and was missed by obs and some models.

        1. Eventually with some help from moisture still to come from the ocean and energy/moisture from the west.

          This particular set up is actually quite unique which probably lends to the “oh no i’m not sure what to forecast!” snow situation. Believe me, NOBODY forecast this thing with confidence, and if they tell you they did, they are lying.

          I’ve been putting the “open to tweaking” tag on almost every entry and FB post for that very reason.

            1. Thanks TK. Boy, all of RI and southern portions of central MA are engulfed in the dry air. The dry slot seems to be getting bigger!!!

          3. A couple of funny things are going on inland. It warmer than at the coast and Boundary layer is dry with a northerly flow at the surface but you are getting some downsloping off the surrounding higher terrain; the Blue Hill area, the RI / CT hilly terrain or the Worcester hills and it is creating these bands of virga partially due to a ENE flow just above the boundary layer. The precip is not making it through the dry boundary layer and where it does it is no match for the slightly warmer 34-37 degree temps and march sun in central and western inland areas.

            1. Great explanation JMA but when does this drying mechanism shut off and begin to fill in for moderate snow for those locales?

  254. The accumulation has commenced again. Street outside my office is beginning
    to get snow covered again. 😀

      1. Not sure how northern RI sees those amounts. It’s not even snowing and hasn’t much all day.

    2. Snow starting to stick to the walkways here in Walpole too. Leaving work soon to avoid another hellish commute

  256. In Lexington, everything just wet. Took my afternoon walk in the woods moments ago and my morning footprints were barely covered. Almost does feel like end-of-storm snow as Joshua pointed out.

  257. It’s been frustrating here in Westborough because it’s been snowing all day but we have 0 accumulation…

  258. Moderate to heavy band about to move into Boston and points south from energy coming in off the ocean.

    1. Hmmm, not sure about the Mansfield and Foxboro #’s. Must be the same “trained spotter.” I was at Patriot Place for lunch and best I saw was 3 maybe 4.” Anyways, this still looks to be the jackpot area pending what happens tonight.

  261. Our energy from the west depicted by the NAM:

    500mb at 12 hours or 1AM tomorrow:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_012_500_vort_ht.gif

    The Norlun is evident on thie 700mb chart. Look at the moisture!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=700_rh_ht&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_012_700_rh_ht.gif

    850mb RH chart. More moisture and norlun:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_rh_ht&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_012_850_rh_ht.gif

    How about this 500mb relative humidity chart?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_rh_ht&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_012_500_rh_ht.gif

  263. After several hours of accumulation receding it has begun to stick again in Medford 🙂

  264. The moderate to heavy snow has really set in here. About a mile west on Rte. 139, the roads are getting slushy and the trees are beginning to coat with snow. At my house closer to the ocean, its just starting to stick.

    Well, if its snow the rest of the night, it will be not long into the evening before the power goes out, as the wind is still ferocious and the trees will be becoming weighted down. It feels like the blizzard again, just hope its not 93% of the town out by morning, needing 5 days to get everyone’s power back in.

    With all that said, the snow flying horizontally is neat to watch.

  266. Yeah I am thinking anywhere from Boston south towards upper Canal and just inland will be the jackpot, these inverted troughs can really dump a ton of snow. Sometimes even underestimated by models.

    2. Especially if the trough holds longer than models forecast. It’s funny. Someone asked a couple of days ago about the possibility of an inverted trough. I believe TK replied that an inverted trough isn’t likely to set up this go around. Who would have thought that we would have had to rely on such a set up to get our snow.

  268. We have to watch that rain snow line, it will go from where it is now to the I95 corridor later tonight, this will halt snowfall south of Boston but still come in with highest amounts just because there is the most precip

  269. Get those heavy bands to push into western CT. Only expecting 3-6 inches and I say only because after getting 30 inches with the blizzard 3-6 feels like a dusting. The snow coming down but not sticking and the half inch that was on the ground this morning went bye bye.

  270. There will not be a rain snow line except Cape and they might end up being snow on upper Cape

    1. Hadi Awesome.

      Try what I just did. I placed the mouse in the eye in the beginning of the loop and then watched the loop. I see that sucker moving Westward!

      Am I seeing things??????

      3. I do see evidence of the massive block coming down from Newfoundland? Or is it Labrador? Not sure, but its there in the upper right corner of that loop preventing this thing from coming any further north

  274. Moderate snow in Plymouth and starting to stick. Lights just flickered so it is probably just a matter of time before we lose power. YUCK!

    3. Yup, same here on the snow part and the trees coating part, a matter of time. Good luck Sue !

  275. To Pod4Eva and Kate: Both of your messages were approved. Sorry that I didn’t get to them sooner. 400+ spams sitting in the box today and had to find yours out of those.

    Pod… BM has been invited here but so far has declined to appear. 🙂

    1. Thank you! I’ve been reading here forever and have enjoyed every minute of it. I think that I may be getting smarter by osmosis 😉

        1. You can’t see the snowflakes and snowman? Hmmmm. That’s what they are. Some of the characters show up and some don’t and apparently those that show up. Don’t show up to everyone. Sorry 🙁

  277. Well it seems some of you lucked out on the timing of this batch. Probably won’t see a flake here at Lyndon!

  278. Update from NWS

    TONIGHT…A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
    INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC…PULLING ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN STORM BACK
    TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE
    ECMWF. ITS QPF AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL BOTH
    AT 12Z AND THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WHILE THERES STILL A LITTLE BIT
    OF UNCERTAINTY…MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF AND SNOW
    AMOUNTS…ALL THE MODELS HAVE REALLY COME BETTER IN LINE WITH THE
    GENERAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL IN THE CONNECTICUT
    VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…HOWEVER…THEY SHOULD COOL
    ENOUGH AFTER THE SUN SETS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE
    QUICKLY.

    THE HIGHEST QPF /AND THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS/ ARE EXPECTED
    ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.
    THE ECMWF IS PREDICTING ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF IN THIS AREA DURING
    THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. USING THIS QPF AND THE ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL
    EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE…WE HAVE UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
    ADVISORIES IN ESSEX…SUFFOLK…AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTIES TO
    WINTER STORM WARNINGS. WE ALSO ADDED CAPE COD TO THE WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY… LARGELY FOR THE UPPER CAPE /AREAS WEST OF
    HYANNIS…ESPECIALLY FALMOUTH AND WEST TO THE CANAL.

  280. Regarding the “norlun” … Not a classic. But there is a kind-of inverted trough between the low and energy to the northwest of this area, but it is based more in the mid levels. That is providing extra lift for snow development. It is this area that is key in tonight’s precip as it swings southeastward then gets dragged southward with the circulation.

  281. i can see hivier snow just over the marshland. but its very light in my back and front yard.

  282. Hi All. just about ready to head home. Looking at the building across the street
    I could actually see Blowing Snow! Sure sign temperatures are lowering and ratios
    will be up. 😀

    1. Have a safe trip

      If we have enough snow here by morning to cancel school I will eat a triple helping of crow. Doubting Vicki is not seeing this develop here.

  283. New blog up! I’m hoping a dry tongue comes into the NW surburbs and limits my snow. I am too tired to shovel. 😉

  284. Just got home from school a little while ago. Rainshine, the science club LOVED your satellite picture of the storm. So, I walked in this morning and there was about an inch of snow on the ground; wind was in my face and the main roads were slushy and the side streets lightly snow covered. I walked home this afternoon in light snow and there was about an inch of snow on the ground except for one short street that had more like 2 inches; don’t know what was with that. The main roads are clear, with a little slush at the edges and the side streets are a little more snow covered. So, I thought I’d go look at the bird bath out back and it has about an inch of snow on it. Much less wind this afternoon too (of course I was going in the opposite direction). OK, let me get some peanut butter and chocolate.

  285. Just think everyone was panicking that we were all getting dry slotted and now wbz is calling for 1-2ft now!

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