Big Miss On Big Hit

163 Comments

7:47PM

As the final flakes finish flying on the South Coast this Friday evening, the numbers are in! And the jackpot from the big not-quite-so-accurately-forecast snowstorm is …… Milton Massachusetts! More specifically, the top of Great Blue Hill, with 29.8 inches of snow! This is the 5th largest snowstorm on record for this historic observatory!

Quick commentary on the storm, which was obviously very badly under-forecast by myself. In talking with a colleague, we agree that this reminds us of a similar snowfall forecast bust that took place on December 23 1997. The highest snow forecast in the media was 4-8 inches due to marginal temperatures and an expected flip between rain and snow. The forecast for the temperature was a couple degrees to warm, and when it came in colder, snow took over, and 1 to 2 feet later…. Well you can see, similar story here. One saving grace of a colder storm is that the snow was not quite as wet and pasty during the  height of it, and this limited the build up on trees and power lines, thus limiting  power outages issues. Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion did take place in some sections, as expected. An interesting note was a “snow-void” region in much of RI during the first 2/3 of the storm. This will be a subject of study and I’ll have further info on that soon. The most unusual aspect of this storm would  have to be that the center was several hundred miles south to southeast of New England yet it was able to crank heavy precipitation in here. Remarkable storm.

Moving forward…

The big storm will be cranking far offshore as it drifts away this weekend and we are in a sliver of high pressure that will bring dry weather, milder air, and lots of melting snow. A warm front will approach Monday with more clouds, and this may hold back a warm-up. Briefly warmer air should come through the region Tuesday but will likely be accompanied by rain showers triggered by an approaching cold front. This front will be moving offshore Wednesday but upper level low pressure may bring clouds and a chance of snow showers. Cold air will be more established by Thursday and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of mixed precipitation or snow by next Friday, based on current expected timing of systems.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any lingering mix/snow showers end along the South Coast otherwise mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 43-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except near 20 some valleys. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs 43-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 36. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 22. High 34.

163 thoughts on “Big Miss On Big Hit”

  3. It’s truly amazing that nearly 30 inches fell in Milton and less than half of that falls 20 or so miles south and there wasn’t a rain snow line to talk about, very crazy storm, I looked at the accumulations through the area and it’s also crazy the difference here just from north attkeboro to wrentham, like u said a remarkable storm, thanks for your hard work 🙂

      3. Ah gotcha, thanks. Just was curious. I always liked the 2 hour delay, but at the same time, whats the point? Just cancel at that point.

        1. North attleboro is so screwed up, and it’s starts from the top, I used to be the one that would tell everyone this town was the best, I don’t believe that’s the case anymore and deval Patrick not giving money to attleboro or north attleboro for certain things I don’t blame him, why invest in towns that won’t push forward and stuck in neutral, instead deval spent money in Norwood, much smarter decision, sorry to rant

          1. I know the band director at Norwood High School. He used to be the director at the old North Attleboro Junior High when I was there. He’s awesome. I have no problem with them getting state money.

            1. With that said, I had a wonderful education in North Attleboro, and if my fiance didn’t just get a job in Boston, we would be looking for houses there.

              1. I think its more of a goatee. The band director at north high has a beard though. He graduated a year ahead of me

  4. As others have said, this storm will make an excellent case study in many ways.

    Heading out for a while. Check in later!

  5. Thanks TK. I hate not being able to access the blog at work! Keeps me out of touch all day with everyone!

      1. Didn’t get a chance to do an actual measurement yet, but I would say somewhere around 8-10.

        1. We clearly were not the jackpot this time. You can tell once you pass Mansfield on 95, it starts to go down quickly.

    1. I think downtown pvd got around 4-5 inches but they measure at tf green airport which is 12 miles south so there’s some discrepancys there 🙂

  10. Logan airport at 13.1 and 55.9 so far for the season.

    Vicki can you post the numbers for us?

    1. Hadi I still measured close to what I said earlier here, I’m not sure what to say, more north of here, have a good night hadi 🙂

  11. Wow. Interesting comment from terry e on BZ. I don’t know who he is. Someone on the blog said something positive about baileymans forecast. Terry e said he didn’t no who baileyman is. Yet when baileyman said he thought 10-15 with storm terry posted he doubted that was possible. Could it be the BZ mets don’t mine the trolls cause they don’t really read the blog.

  12. Worcester has 101″ this year unbelievable. This winter is certainly not a dud. Many of us including my self complained at the beginning of the winter about the lack of snow. Just goes to show that winter can turn around on a dime. Great winter so far.

    1. John was huge saying it’d be a big winter. Odd it took only 2 storms to pretty much get it there though

    2. It doesn’t even feel like a bad winter, I think bc it melting quickly after every storm

  13. Quincy got according to Noaa website 24.9 inches!!! I agree 100% we have soooo much snow. I think that we were the jackpot besides blue hill observatory that has some elevation.

    1. TJ…I find that very unusual given that Quincy is right near the water and it was very wise they cancelled school today…unlike Boston which had school and a very poor decision indeed. Many parents were not happy.

      Congrats on the snow jackpot! WOW! 🙂

      1. I’m pumped!! I didn’t think we had that much until I went out and shoveled. It was snowing very hard the entire storm. Crazy time but awesome! I feel terrible about the damage to our beaches and homes I never want that.

          2. Ewww. Husband leaves at 5:30. He won’t be happy. Although he doesn’t like winter so he won’t get a lot of sympathy ⛄

  15. Charlie don’t doubt ya. Feel bad you didn’t get more 🙂

    I never got a measurement in at the end but I would say 19-21 inches. I am not far from Quincy and Norwood so I am betting 20 is decent number.

    1. I certainly wish I got 20 inches, on my way home from vt today I was on the mass pike from rt 91 and it was fine until around rt84 off mass pike, white outs and accidents everywhere, my wife was almost crying

  16. Todd was on Dan Rea’s “Nightside” on WBZ radio between 8-9 pm taking questions.

    A caller asked Todd if any more storms and he did mention Friday perhaps as we will be back in a cold, stormy pattern after a brief taste of spring temps early next week.

    1. So weird, there was big time shadowing out in western mass, we were driving down 91 from vt and me and my wife were like it looks like they only got an inch or 2, that changed fast once we got on mass pike going east, thanks for the link 🙂

    2. Thanks Hadi…interesting how much of RI and CT Valley of MA got “shadowed” and really gypped of significant snow. Of course no one expects the Cape to get much if at all during most storms.

      1. Yeah I think Nantucket only averages 6-8 inches in an average winter season if I’m not mistaken

  18. I would like to know what exactly causes the “shadowing” effect regarding snowfall.

    Does this occur during rainstorms as well?

    1. When the air comes over the hills the downward motion coming down the other side causes less precip and a drying up effect

  22. Made my final spotter report to the NWS earlier with 21″ here in Coventry,CT. I just put the yardstick on the deck and watched it pile up. Near the end, there was some melting and compaction, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we technically got a bit more. This puts me at 88″ for the season which exceeds the 2010-2011 winter and for that matter is the snowiest winter I’ve had since I moved here in 1999.

    Amazing thing about this storm was the variability in totals. Just 25 miles away from me at Bradley airport, only 4.5″ weas recorded and a coworker in W Springfield said they only had 2″ there. Pretty remarkable.

  25. Our local Fox met in CT just apologized on the air for the blown forecast which was even worse here as the areas near me that were projected to get 3-6″ got 18-24″. In her post mortem, she noted that the high to the north was very strong, resulting in the colder temps and the storm, while 500 miles away, was so strong and so far out there, that it was able to tap into a lot more tropical moisture. The combination of the strong high to the north and the powerful storm to the south, sent the conveyor belt of Atlantic and tropical moisture in off the ocean. Add to that, the storm essentially stalled out. More moisture than expected and longer duration = higher QPF totals and the slightly colder temps eliminated any mixing issues and resulted in higher snow ratios.

    1. What’s interesting is that we were concerned that high was going to shove it south. Turned out it was a major player. TK mentioned earlier in the week that the High was in a great place for a monster snowstorm. (i’m paraphrasing there but I think I’m close.

      Even though TK was off on the amounts, clearly he recognized the players on the field…..the high, NAM and the Euro. I don’t recall anyone else mentioning those factors.

  26. Wbz just did a report from the Holden showing pictures of all the snow and interviewing people about how they felt about being one of the towns that had a jackpot snow total. I’ll bet retrac’s spotter reports played a role in WBZ’s decision to head out there for the story!

  27. Just checking in to see if anything was going on. Hope everyone is getting some well-deserved rest after the storm. Good night!

  29. WATCH A COMET TONIGHT. (from CNN)

    Comet Pan-STARRS is now visible on the western horizon and you may be able to see it with the naked eye.

    If you have a clear view of the western horizon about 15 minutes after twilight, you should be able to see the comet without using binoculars or a telescope. It will look like a bright point of light with its tail pointing nearly straight up from the horizon, according to the laboratory.

    In a few days, the comet may get lost in the sun’s glare, but should be visible to the naked eye again by March 12. This may be the best time to look for Pan-STARRS; it should emerge in the western sunset sky not far from the crescent moon.

    1. Hadi,

      Make yourself a snow board for your yard away from things that might contaminate results and for easy observation. I’ll take a picture of mine. Nice and easy.

  31. It sure is going to be pretty today with the sun on the fresh snow. And no bitter January misery. To be enjoyed.

  33. Great weekend with nice temps.
    Rainorama coming in early part of next week and then according to NWS things may get a little interesting once the cold front comes through for later in the week. As I said before I don’t think we have seen the last of the snow but I don’t think we will see any more major snowfalls like we had yesterday with incredible snowfall amounts.

  34. Did I see another house slid into the ocean…..I caught about 5 seconds of a newsclip this morning? Currently high tide, it still looks moderately windy out there, as the low clouds whiz by from north to south.

  35. Good Morning Everyone,

    Still can’t believe all the snow we got. Very interesting storm. I’ve got my fill for the season looking forward to Spring and warmer weather.

    On another note it looks like the Midwest has been getting a good dose of rain and snow lately anyone know what the current drought looks like? I’m hoping they don’t have another hot and dry summer puts Alot pressure on all of us.

    Thanks

  36. 22.6 inches in Norwood. 24 inches in Westwood! Great storm! I may not talk with you guys until next Winter. That typically is when I frequent the site. Enjoy the summer! 🙂

      1. In that case, I will be back. It’s been a fun winter with you guys and this last storm was one of my favorites!

  37. I will respectfully disagree with the melted equivalent reported at Logan yesterday of .36. No way…….that was not complete powder yesterday and the continuous intensity of and thickness of the snow says it was WAY more than that.

    In spite of being +1.4F thru March 8th, the warmest Logan has been is 43F and since Feb 1st, the warmest it has been is 47F. It was evidently 60F the last two days of January, must have been one of those midnight, double whammy high temp events.

    So, needless to say, I am so ready for the early week warm sector event. I dont like what I’m seeing for the chances of chill/cold returning after that.

    Data from Taunton climate data.

    1. Saw that this morning and don’t agree either. Worcester was .8 and change. That make some more sense.

  40. Beautiful morning for sure!! I am ready for some decent weather but I know it’s NE so it’s gonna take a while.

    Vicki any chance you have time to post our numbers for snow? Thx

    1. My computer isn’t on and we are gearing up for family to arrive for our sons birthday. I will try tomorrow. Sorry 🙁

  43. recorded 13 inches but i probably has more in the way of 15 inches do to compacting but now down to 12 inches do to some melting.
    this warm weather is spoiling plans i hope wachusett keeps its snow through spring break next week.

  44. I decided to start my computer since we are having the lull before our very own storm here 🙂 Predictions below. I don’t have the total to date but think someone does

    MikeyMac 79.0
    John 76.5
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    North 55.7
    tjammer 54.0
    Hadi 53.9
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Kirbet 48.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    TK 39.3
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    JimmyJames 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Matt 30.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

  46. It is melting fast today! The last 3″ measured on my snowboard is gone!

    I can’t believe how tired I am today. So many late nights and anxiety over snow?? My family thinks I’m totally nuts. I suppose I could have more damaging hobbies and ways to spend time!

    1. It’s melting very fast, with 50+ this week, kiss it bye bye, I would get out and enjoy today

  47. March 16 2007 we had a significant storm. (Not as much as this one) it Messed up night commute. My daughter reminded me because we had to postpone my other daughters wedding shower which was the 17th. We had the shower a week later and ate dessert on the deck because it was warm and beautiful. IMHO what makes New England a great place to live

    1. That was a winter that did not have a lot of snow.
      Boston only had 17.1 inches of snow. In the last ten years that winter 06-07 along with 02-03 and 11-12 were big disappointments for snowlovers.

      1. 02-03 was decent? We had the big february snowstorm. President day that year and other good ones

  49. Lots of melting going on but I don’t think 24 inches of snow in my backyard is going to ALL melt by Wednesday.

    1. Cant pick an exact day but charlie is not all that much. Warm days coming up, longer days starting tomorrow and some rain should dwindle those piles. Arod pop on now and than. You are an asset to this blog. My pie was good, how was yours. You nailed mostly all of them this winter. Take care my friend.

        1. Thanks John. I had a pretty decent winter forecast wise but boy was I wrong on this one! Lesson learned yet again. Will be in touch 🙂

          2. Both of us. Next year I plan on being more knowledgeable with the models so I won’t be called a wishcaster and hocus pocus forecasting, I’m getting there.

        1. Not all 24 inches Charlie. I’m not so sure it’s ALL gone. I’ll let you know. I had a few inches before another 2 feet fell 😀

  50. Pembroke came in with 14inches but literally right down the street Hanover came in at 18.5 inches. Plymouth had six and not sure what Tom got. That’s how it looked for the folks down here.

  51. I feel like there have been much worse winters that have had less snow, it feels like everytime we get snow it’s gone quick, I can remember winters that only had 20 or 30 inches but felt like a much worse winter, I’ve basically let Mother Nature do all the snow removal this year, she drops it and melts it within a few days, I can deal with this kind of winter anytime, it sorta reminds me of when we lived just north of Virginia beach, granted they didn’t get a foot of snow but the melting aspect is very close, don’t forget spring forward! Have a sunny day 🙂

  52. Good afternoon all!

    Spent part of the morning at the sea wall at Lynn Beach. Will post a pic or 2 in a few!

    Spent the other part of the morning building a snowman with my son and 2 friends. Will post a pic or 2 in a few!

    Bruins up 3-0! On a Saturday afternoon! How often do we see that? 😛

  53. The ponds and lakes around this area, turnpike lake may come over the road the next few days or very close, it’s about 3 inches below the road today, it’s weird to that there’s 1-2 inch ripple waves crashing on shore but there’s not much wind

  54. Greetings from snowy Milton, where I guess we got 29 inches up on Big Blue. I don’t think there was quite that much by my house, but it was over 18 anyway. My husband went to work and thought I was exaggerating until he got home. It wasn’t too bad though–not nearly as heavy as I expected and I was able to clear it off pretty nicely. Now it is melting and everything is ridiculously wet. I’m hoping for no more snow.

  60. Great photos. I have to agree with Charlie at least the snow that isn’t part of any mound made by a plow may be gone here by Wednesday in North Attleboro. Half is already gone today and not a lot of col nights after tonight for a few days.

  61. Bruins 3 goal outburst was it for the game.
    Like winter 2 years ago: All the snow in a 6 week barrage. 🙂

  62. Wow, looking at those mid 40s to mid 50s inland ….. Its in the upper 30s here along the coast and the sun just came out about an hour ago. Its nice now and there’s about 2-3 inches of snow left.

    We were down south of Plymouth, took 3A all the way to Scusset Beach on the Cape Cod Canal.

    South of Plymouth, within maybe a 1/10 mile of the ocean, no snow at all on the ground. On the coastal roads however, its easy to see what parts were under water and the parts that were not. A lot of the towns had a plow on them today, plowing the sand off of the roads and some sort of bulldozer nearby clearing the rocks.

  63. Just drove out to Natick and back on Rt. 9. It was drenched like it was raining out.
    Whole lot of melting going on! Car thermometer read 47 out there and dropped to 39
    here when I arrived home. Such is a March sea breeze. 😀

    Absolutely beautiful day.

  64. Hadi,
    In response to your inquiry. I had posted yesterday, but there were so many posts,
    perhaps it got lost.

    I took a measurement at home in JP at 12:30PM yesterday, just before intensity
    let up. HONESTLY, I measured 15 inches. I measured 5 inches on the walk which I shoveled in the morning after I measured 10 inches all over the place. Either way,
    it added up to 15 inches. Here are other nearby measurements:

    …SUFFOLK COUNTY…
    BRIGHTON 15.0
    WEST ROXBURY 14.8
    LOGA 13.1

    SO I don’t know what to say. You reside almost 2 miles closer to the jackpot
    area, so perhaps you just made it into some of it. I dunno.

    I call em as I see em.

    😀

  65. WOW!!! Dramatic imagery of the SNOW HOLE in RHODE ISLAND!!!!

    Look at this from US National Weather Service Boston MA:

    Satellite image from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Satellite – Terra for today.

    If you look closely, you can still see the track from the June 1st, 2011 Tornado extending eastward as a very thin line from Springfield, MA. Also notice the interesting snow hole located in RI.

    http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/75013_418355008258876_1422103866_n.jpg

      1. Oldsalty, as well as you forecasted this storm did you think it was going to be as dramatically big as it was. I mean some solid numbers out there even here on the south shore. I was also wondering what happened to the wind that was so talked about in Bostonng intheelements I felt the wind was absent as Wednesday was I thought was the wind day. Again excellent job. For myself as you know, I thought that easterly wind would produce rain off of the warm water and we know how that went. Do you also think this storm will be talked about for many years as a learning tool. I mean Pembroke I think was to get like a few inches and we got 14. Just down the street Hanover whete coastal is got almost 19 inches.

  67. I’m in Plymouth off exit 3 for a function and what a difference in tempature from pembroke to here. I left my jacket at home as I did not need it, bad choice as its much colder here.

  68. Beautiful day today – springlike but the big snow piles made it seem and feel rather odd. I wish that there would be no more snow now ’til nxt. fall/winter, but I am pretty sure that there will be at least some more snow this season. Hope everyone enjoys the rest of the wknd.

    1. I’m good with no more snow. Let’s enjoy the other seasons now. Well atleast we finally got a march storm. Now that I think the two months here that have been absent from snow produced snow in November and March.

  71. Thanks OS about the measurements. I still believe my number was really darn close based on multiple areas.

    Anyway i still think 1 more 3+ inch storm is in our future.

  72. I think everyone is all modeled and snowed out. I ended up with 21″ at my house in Coventry. It was down to 18″ by end of yesterday and is down to 15″ now, less in the sunny spots. I think it’s going to go fast the next couple days. We got to 52 here today and Bradley Airport almost hit 60. Even milder than I thought it would be.

    After a few mild days to start the week, it is going to get chilly again and stay that way for awhile. I am not of the belief that we are done with winter yet. Long range Euro in fact is looking like an interesting setup after St Patrick’s Day…

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

  73. i was not expecting to go to wachussett today but my parents surprised us and i skiied from 4pm to 10pm ps i was on the mountain until 1030 😉 . great spring conditions though way to many people. . good thing about 8pm everybody leaves. Had a blast though …. Massive Thigh Burn!!! .. it looks to warm up this week but it looks to go back down just in time for spring break 😀

  74. Vicki… I did play in the snow today (Saturday) with my son. We made a few sled tracks through the back yard which is a large gradual slope. And of course this morning he, I, and a couple friends (including Emily) went to see the large waves at the sea wall at Lynn Beach.

    Blog is now updated! Have a great day everybody. 😀

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