Sunday Morning Update

140 Comments

4:02AM

Did you all change your clocks forward one hour? At least the ones you have to change…so many change themselves now. 🙂

Quick forecast update here with a full discussion for the coming week later today.

HIGHLIGHTS… High pressure dominates today with nice weather but the coast is cooler with that developing east wind that is a signature of the coming Spring in this area. Warm front approaches Monday with lots of clouds. Not sure if it pushes through easily – if it doesn’t then we stay in the 40s, if it does then we jump into the 50s. Will play  middle of the road for now. Cold front approaches Tuesday, a mild day, but rain shower threat increases. Windy and variably cloudy day Wednesday as an upper low comes across the region and a secondary cold front approaches. Keeping it dry for now. Colder air dominates later in the week but storm threat this far out now appears minimal. Will continue to watch it.

FORECAST for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Any patchy fog dissipates early and areas of frost and black ice melt away by mid to late morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs approach 50 then fall back into the 40s especially near the coast. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers. Low 39. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

140 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  1. Thank you TK. Looks like snow will be gone by the end of this week!

    Here is a repost for all. Be sure to read last paragraph.

    WATCH A COMET TONIGHT. (Text from CNN)

    Comet Pan-STARRS is now visible on the western horizon and you may be able to see it with the naked eye.

    If you have a clear view of the western horizon about 15 minutes after twilight, you should be able to see the comet without using binoculars or a telescope. It will look like a bright point of light with its tail pointing nearly straight up from the horizon, according to the laboratory.

    In a few days, the comet may get lost in the sun’s glare, but should be visible to the naked eye again by March 12. This may be the best time to look for Pan-STARRS; it should emerge in the western sunset sky not far from the crescent moon.

    2. What do they consider twilight. And I thought it was last night and I missed it so I’m very happy I didn’t

  2. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the shape of most snowflakes?
    A. Octagonal
    B. Hexaganal
    C. Pentagonal
    D. Columnal

    Answer later today.

    1. I have no idea …….

      A ?

      I’m glad our answers are not being scored. 🙂

      I’d be headed to weather summer school !

    3. All of the above…..hmmmmm not a choice???

      Ill say B but tossed a coin cause I sort of wanted to say D

      Tom do you think they have open enrollment at the school?

  3. Some places that do not observe daylight savings time (DST).

    Arizona, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands.

    Many continents do not observe DST such as Africa and Asia.

      1. In Jerusalem there are times of the year when the different quarters of the Old City observe different times…like a block apart could be two different times.

        1. For those locales that do not observe DST…good for them! I wish U.S. would totally abolish it AFAIC. 🙂

  4. TK,

    Quick question (hopefully) for you I meant to ask yesterday…

    Regarding the storm, at what moment or what signaled to you that we might be in trouble. For me, it was watching the flare-up of the radar around 6:00am. Not sure if there was an earlier signal to you that tipped the storms hand other than what we’ve heard generically on the news.

    Please forgive if you’ve already mentioned this an I missed it.

    Thanks

    1. Retrac,

      For me, it was the consistent “norlun” type feature signaled by the NAM.
      Certainly By the 18Z runs on Thursday and most especially the 0Z runs
      on Thursday evening. 😀 btw, somewhat supported by the Euro, but not
      as strongly so.

        1. Btw, I should add..

          I got confirmation when we took the drive out to Canton
          Thursday evening. It was quite apparent that the
          Game was on!!

  5. In regards to snowfall I believe this is the first time that Boston has had above normal snowfall for the season with below normal snowfall for the month of December. I remember reading something that when snowfall is below normal in December the winter as a whole averages below normal.

    1. It is not the first time Jimmy by any means. It only occurs 25% of the time though and the reverse as well (above for December, below for season).

      1. 75% of the time December sets the tone regarding seasonal snowfall. We beat the odds this time around. 🙂 December 2012 snowfall was a few inches below normal but I don’t know exactly how much.

    1. Thanks OS for the article. I always felt we had at least one more good snow before this month ends. 🙂

  8. John,
    To answer your questions from the previous blog:

    1. Yes, I suspect this past storm will be studied for a long time to come.
    2. Regarding the wind. I’m sure Tk and/or JMA will correct me if I am wrong,
    but I believe the main reason is that the actually center was located 500-600 miles
    off shore, thus relaxing the wind some, especially away from the immediate coast.

    😀

    1. That and there was also a little bit of a coastal front, as weak as it was. That often will have lighter wind to the west of it. This boundary adds lift and as it slid eastward probably contributed to the 12+ totals northwest of Boston and the 18+ totals just to the south of the city (along with topography of course).

  9. Fascinating weather event this morning (in a quiet way). As many of you saw, a deck of stratus rolled in from the NE, a very thin layer, trapped by an inversion. During the 11AM hour, a low to mid level disturbance moving extremely rapidly from WNW to ESE came across and basically disturbed the inversion enough to almost wipe it out, hence the fairly rapid break-up of the stratus W and N of the city.

    This loop will be useless after 1:30PM because it probably won’t show it any longer but if you see this in the next little bit, you will see what I meant.

    http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

  10. Sticking with the 1 or 2 more plowable events (despite what just happened) March 15-April 15 for at least part of Metro Boston. Winter is going to try to hang on this year, folks.

  11. I hope for one more dumping of snow. I felt jipped the other day only getting 7 inches of snow. Although I did not get jipped with the blizzard getting close to 30 inches.

      1. Philip I never got in the heavy bands here in Watertown, CT. The heavy bands set up shop in the northeastern part of the state where some places got over 20 inches of snow. The forecast for my part of CT was spot on calling for a 6-9 inch snowfall. It was the northeastern part of the state that got a lot more than the 6-9 inches predicted. I never remember a storm 500 miles away delivering that much snow.

  13. I really want Worcester to make a run at all-time which I think is near 120″ or so from 95′-96′

  15. i want one or two more snowstorms before months end. then in april dry things up so i can open the patio and start gardening. already have things growing in my “greenhouse” ps its a section of the basement. with heivy lights and heaters.
    right now i have herps growing. and my dads hybiscus plant is growing again.

  16. Matt root for the Almanac to be right since they are calling for two coastal storms to close out the month.

  17. A couple more plowable snows would be quite beneficial for the longer term. Even though since the beginning of 2013 Logan is -0.94″ in precip, there is still a matter of that -7.04″ as of 12/31/2012 that could very well come back to haunt us come spring and early summer. That high deficit will never again be seen statistically but could be very much felt via higher food prices and widespread brush fires as examples.

  18. The Celtics are trailing 50-45 at halftime…they could easily be leading nicely if it wasn’t for so many turnovers. I believe they had 9 in the first quarter alone. This team is just so frustrating these days. 🙁

  19. Jimmy…I never heard of Watertown CT and had to look it up on a road map. You are located wsw of Hartford. You must have been in that CT River Valley “shadow” unfortunately 🙁 Hopefully for the next storm (whenever) you will be in a sweet spot. 🙂

    1. The heavy bands came into the northeastern CT but lost strength as they pushed west toward here. We had some moderate bands here with the last storm but never got into those heavy bands. The big snows this year in CT have been in Southern and Eastern CT. North of where I am as you head into Northwest Hills is usually the jackpot for snowfall but not this year.

    1. A 980 mb low, with strong onshore flow …. just what the coast would need. At least the tides on March 20th happen to be the lowest of the month.

      Big change from its 0z run.

    2. Just looked at it TK. It’s there to be had. Let’s see how this pans out over the next few weeks.

  22. Good afternoon everyone, another beautiful early spring feel today, down to patchy snowcover, prolly 1-2 inches left here, 46.7 degrees, mid 50’s tommorrow! The spring forward always screws me up

      1. Yeah there’s a huge difference, me and my wife couldn’t believe the difference in just 5 or 10 miles 🙂

  23. I want to see the sun above the western horizon at 6pm, so I’m hoping these low clouds clear away.

    It looks like its getting close, as I see breaks to our west.

  24. Well the deck still had 18 inches of snow but I found a spot to put my chair in direct sun out front. Beautiful day. We went to hum and brant rock. Couldn’t get down to the two houses we rent on Humarock. Both places have seen so much destruction

    We ate at the cask n something. Excellent food and service. They will give bridgewaye a run for its money which IMHO it needs.

    1. That has not been open for long Vicki. A spot you and your husband could have a nice dinner is the Fairview, pricy but good meal. Fairview is in brantrock. The real hot spot this summer will be the newly rebuilt huge haddads also in brantrock, excellent seafood going way, way back.

      1. Tc john. We have been to haddads. Not to fair view. The cask easily rivals anyplace for pub type food we’ve been to. We had planned to try fair view when there for march 🙁

        1. Not the new one. It just opened or is about to. Curious to see how long the cask lasts. That spot has been many places and usually don’t last long. When I was growing up that was a rollerscating rink.

          1. John i know not new haddads. We liked old but not exceptional …. good.

            I used to rollerskate there. We have been to all resraurants that’ve been there and havent likedfhem. if today is an indication cask will last. They are in Boston also. Son says always excellent

    2. The soft glowing light from the sky when the sun is below the horizon, caused by the reflection of the sun’s rays from the atmosphere.

  26. You guys discussed the 12Z Euro.

    Here is one depiction:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Here’s another:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013031012&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    500mb heights:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013031012&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

    Of course, right how, it’s depicted as a rain event, but 10 days is a lot of time
    for this to percolate and change.:D

    850mb colder temperatures are dangerously near by. Wouldn’t take much of
    a change to make this another big snow producer.

    1. We’ve seen that map a few times this winter now haven’t we.

      We talk about trend and pattern a lot on this blog….cause its meaningful.

      Pattern still has not broken IMHO.

      1. Agreed. Look at the chart for 216 hours. Eerily similar to the last
        event, ONLY stronger by a good deal! 😀

    1. Gfs is not clued into this. Neither is the CMC. 😀
      That’s a negative on the FIM as well.

      So, I guess this means it will probably happen.

        1. That is why I stated, probably will happen.

          One thing the Euro has been good at, sniffing out these
          events 10 days out. 😀

          1. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            Cant take it anymore, want sun and more sun and springlike mid 40s to mid 50s.

            2. i want good skiing through spring break. i want 40s and 50s in early april for like 1 or 2 weeks and then i want 60s and 70s. for the rest of april and then i want 70s and 80s in may. 80s and 90 by the end of the month of may. and then 80s and 90s all of june,july, august, with 80s in september.

        2. Does Accu Pro have 200 and 300mb charts for the Euro?
          I assume it does. What do they look like. Clues as to
          where this bomb heads?

  30. Hey O.S., I was in this exact spot in my kitchen this time last week batting around the 18z GFS with you!

    1. Funny.

      I sure remember that. At the time, it was correct, even though it back
      down subsequently. 😀

      1. GFS went lame afterwards and turned out to be its usual piece of crap in the end.

        To your question, tilt goes negative so I imagine the direction would be right up the coast.

        Really strong jet at the base of the trough before it blows up (130knots)

        10 days…………….and september sun angle……………

        We’ll need a big bomb for it to get cold enough….

      1. Yeah but its so far off I really should be ignoring it for another five days. As I mentioned earlier – pattern is still there and still ripe – that’s what’s notable this far out.

  32. I moved the fire pit around front. It faces SW/W so will hopefully see comet. Neighbors already know I’m nuts so won’t be surprised to see me sitting around a fire in the front yard 🙂

  33. Hi all-

    Greetings from Saba Rock, BVI. I am amazed to read how much snow fell. I hope that the prediction that is will all melt by the end of the week holds true, as we did not make arrangements for snow shoveling in our absence.

    We did make it down here on Friday, despite the storm, although with many delays. We had to pay extra for a late private ferry and an after hours opening fee to customs and immigration, but we did make it after about 13 hours of travel.

    Best regards,

    Amy

    1. Sounds like it was a little rough traveling but I speak for us all when I say I am glad you made it safely!

    2. Glad to,hear you arrived safely. Have a wonderful week.

      Southwest sent My business associate a voucher toward a future flight for the inconvenience. Hopefully you’ll be awarded one as well.

  34. It appears it will stay above freezing in Boston for at least the next 60hrs, tonight’s low will be 33-34 degrees and tommorrow night won’t get below 40 degrees and then Tue night it gets down to around 37, BIG meltdown continues,

  35. Been out of action for a few days. My hard drive at work died, and I did not back up. Been able to retrieve most of my files (from thumb-drives), so I’m more relaxed than I was.

    I hope none of you banked on my busted forecast: “1-2 inches of glop in Boston.” Wow, was I wrong. Old Salty, you nailed this forecast. You were consistent, too, and most importantly you were right about the temperature profile. Truly incredible storm. Ranks up there with some others in terms of surprise factor.

    I don’t think we’re done with snow yet. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see several more snow chances down the road. Dwindling, but not non-existent.

    By the way, the snow cutoff at the Mass./RI border was/is weird. I drove to Providence yesterday and there was still a lot of snow in places like Canton, Foxboro, but almost none in Providence. Bare ground for the most part, and temps at least 4 degrees warmer than Boston (refrigeration effect + sea-breeze).

    1. Welcome back. Glad to hear you didn’t lose everything thanks to the hard drive. That’s the worst…

      We’re not done with snow threats.

      I’m beginning to think O.S. is not a person, but a computer, with amazing programming, showing us all the model output for each run then putting together the perfect forecast for all the hard storms. 😉

      1. 😀 😀 That’s pretty funny TK. I don’t usually put out a forecast. I usually give my feelings or interpretation of things and I am usually wrong!! Got lucky this time around. 😀

        And Joshua, many thanks as well.

        You and JMA rule!!!

        We’re on guard again! I know it is 10 days out, but I remember
        10 days before this event with the Euro having that big ole low
        sitting on the coast of Virginia.

        Scary accuracy for 10 days out!!

        We’ll see how it does this time around.

    2. Several may be pushing it. I could possibly see maybe one more. In my opinion only I think the deeper we get into March the harder it will get, especially with the longer days now and stronger sun. It almost hasto be the perfect storm where everything has to come togeather. Higher elevation areas may have the best shot. The ocean should also be starting to get even warmer, though slowly. This is just my thinking and a guess.

      1. John,

        With the right set up, can still accumulate major snows right into Early April. And please don’t forget May, 1977. Here is a snow map and article on it:

        http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?%2Ftopic%2F133901-may-9-10-1977-snow-event-map-nypanew-england%2F

        And another:

        http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=29630

        Friend of mine measured 6 inches in Newton. We had 2 inches or so here in JP. Out towards Millis, Norfolk, Franklin it was
        a disaster area with tree damage all over.

      2. Late March and April 1996 I believe it was, we had several substantial snowfall accumulations, all after the Equinox. A few of them were in the 5-10+ range.

  36. Only 575 messages to weed thru in the waiting folder. Damn spam bots. After I get done with that, and probably take a break for dinner, The Week Ahead will be posted!

      1. Thanks! So far all set, just came up with a way to get thru them faster, and my son had the pleasure of clicking the button to delete the 17,000+ messages in the Spam Folder. 😛

  38. Here I sit by the fire trying to figure what 15 minutes after twilight is and the clouds move in. My husband just stuck his head out and asked if I’d seen the great pumpkin yet. Hmmmmmmm

    1. This gets better in the days ahead so don’t worry – we’ll have more chances. 🙂

      1. Saw something before it disappeared into clouds. Too high for a plane but traveling more at speed of ISS. No tail. And I put in my time. My legs are a bit numb.

  39. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the shape of most snowflakes?
    A. Octagonal
    B. Hexaganal
    C. Pentagonal
    D. Columnal

    Those who chose B, Hexogonal are correct!

    1. Thank you longshot.

      I keep meaning to tell you my husbands cousins son was on price is right several years back. He got selected from the audience. I can’t remember what he won. When do you go?

      1. Oh wait. It’s wheel of fortune right. I think my brain froze too anyway I want to definitely watch when you go

  40. As I think there are chances and potentials will see if any verify, I’ve told 33 plow drivers to take off plows today so will see how stupid I look or look like a hero, love living on the edge, remember they all plow south and east of Boston, have a good night everyone 🙂

      1. I own my own Lawncare business, no mowing just turf diagnostic, it’s my 7th year, I’ve just went over 400 customers, doing very well, though wife is the bread winner working at ropes and gray Boston, have a good day John 🙂

  42. Snowflakes are on all TV mets extended forecasts except NWS for next Sunday…something to watch or very minor event?

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