The Week Ahead

146 Comments

10:20PM

We’ve been battered by some stormy weather in the last several weeks, but this was not really a surprise. Long range forecasts heading into winter did indicate that the 2nd half of winter may be the part loaded with the storms that produced the most snow, and leading up close to this stretch of weather the indications were pretty strongly in favor of this. The coming week may not be as stormy overall, but will still have some events and changes. A warm front will push into the region Monday with clouds but no precipitation. That will hold off until Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches the region. Tuesday will be a very mild day, and some of this mild air will hang around for Wednesday even though the cold front will have past. A second cold front will bring colder air for the end of the week, and upper level low pressure nearby may bring periods of cloudiness as well. For the moment it looks like a mostly dry period of weather, however, though there may be a storm system of some kind heading into the region sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, areas of fog. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Areas of fog early, lots of clouds, some sun. Highs around 50. Wind light S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers developing west to east afternoon. Highs upper 40s south-facing shores to middle 50s inland. Wind S to SW 10-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 29. High 37.

146 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK. Here’s to a quieter week. Many bare patches here already. Hoping that the rain is not too heavy, so there is not much flooding.

  3. For those who missed AccuWeather Trivia Quiz answer.

    What is the shape of most snowflakes?
    A. Octagonal
    B. Hexaganal
    C. Pentagonal
    D. Columnal

    Those who chose B, Hexogonal are correct!

  5. I’m a little concerned with the 1/2 to 1 inch of rain coming on Tue, there will not be much of a snowpack down here well south of Boston in Wrentham/N.Attleboro area by the time the rainstorm comes, but places well north and west and southwest of Boston where 20 to as much as nearly 30 inches fell could be in for flood problems, temps in the 50’s with moderate to heavy rain spells rapid snowmelt, I would check your sump pumps, becareful a little black ice out there.

  7. Thanks TK !

    I was hoping the EURO wouldnt show the big east coast storm it had on its 12z run yesterday ……

    It has it again, 9 mb lower !! 971 mb bombing out south of us, slowly filling to 981 mb as it moves NE.

    Craziness, this really cant be happening. Whatever would happen with the snow is fine, I’m just thinking the coastline.

  8. Think its mild above us …..

    Top of Mt Washington is 39.2 F and a little lower at 4,000 ft, its 52.5 F !!

    The valley floor is 30.1 F

        1. It’s Accupro Coastal and I pay for it so I don’t want to screw with any possible violations. I know, I’m a prude.

          I should clarify that it shows a general 12-18 in the same general areas and amounts it showed before the last storm. That’s what I meant by “exactly”

  12. hehe.. next tuesday 😀 spring break snow storm just in time for my dad and i to go skiing 😀

  14. Good morning all,

    That 0Z Euro LOOKS Big Time Scary!!

    That is 2 runs. Let’s keep tabs to see how long the Euro keeps this
    thing around.

    Again, on the CMC, FIM and GFS it is No where to be found.
    This could be showcasing the Superiority of the Euro. 😀 😀

    1. When would this be for. Also how do you see this Sunday as I’m hearing possible mixing event. Big day that would not be good for the parades.

  15. Sunday looks like a clipper, doesn’t look like it would amount to much unless you get some sort of re-development which doesn’t look likely right now.

  17. Looking at the EURO, what raises a red flag to me is the amount of snow being depicted south of us. Chances of 12+ verifying from Mid-Atlantic to us is remote this time of year. But again who knows 🙂

  19. BTW the EURO ensembles also in line with op run for next week. Not as strong but that’s the case a lot of times from the ensembles.

    1. Right now it is so, but still 9-10 days out.
      We’ll have to watch and see how it plays out. 😀

  21. Remember 1956 … Well, I don’t, as I was born in 1964. But, my late father reminded me every winter when there was a storm in March that snow in SNE was very much in the cards. He would always end his commentary on early spring in SNE by quoting from Robert Frost. By the way, 1956 was the year that 3 successive snowstorms delayed the St. Patrick’s Day parade. Could have been 1955, but I believe it was 1956.

    1. I remember the early 90s, 91or 92 that the parade in south Boston kept getting postponed because of snow.

    2. As I was completely wrong with last storm and im not even gonna mention this potential until Wed or Thu as I think it will change, 48.5 and the remaining snow is melting today and tommorrow, I just saw 2 trugreen trucks applying something in wareham, glad I’m not them, I start this Thu in N.Kingston RI where I have 17 customers, glad to get started 🙂

      1. If I were a customer I would not let anyone put anything down on my lawn yet, too soon IMO, it will be a waste.

  22. For the springlovers among you, especially gardeners, I believe this year will be much better than last in terms of flowering. The snows have provided necessary nourishment to plants, grass, and trees, and also insulation against harsh cold.

    By the way, OS was correct to point out that Hadi also forecasted good amounts of snow last week, also east of I-95.

    Satellite imagery from last week’s storm is awesome. Consider just how far away the storm’s center was. To have impacted us as much as it did is amazing. Not a textbook nor’easter like the February blizzard, but still some imagery that forecasters should keep bookmarked.

  23. I think it’s crazy to let anyone apply anything to my yard yet.

    BTW Charlie you have 33 plow drivers who rely on your forecast? No offense to you but that’s a lot riding on a non professional weather forecaster 🙂 I would never tell anyone that as I am not a pro at this.

    2. I don’t get the part on taking the plows off. Here they only go on when needed and never stay on. This is what most do.

    3. Well if I save them all the weight on the front of the trucks and don’t have to replaces 3,000 worth of shocks struts etc etc it’s more money in my pocket, anyways will c, take it easy 🙂

      1. Right. But like I said the plows should be off anyways. Plows only go on right before a storm than right back off. No one should be leaving a plow on all winter.

        1. Unfortunately alot don’t do that and you can tell and ruins the truck, your exactly right John everyone should, laziness) but I didn’t say that 🙂

      2. yeah my parents car’s struts got destroyed this winter. lets see how long it takes them to fix the roads in my town this year

  25. Yeah I understand hadi, I drove down and visited a few customers in N.Kingston on Sunday as I checked the areas, there was no snow down there and soil temps down to 2.5 inches were in the upper 37-40 degrees already there in Southern RI, I went to school for turf and golf courses so I trust myself, believe me I’m about on schedule, you could have tru green, I know of an employee there that says they had 2 trucks applying in late Jan, there a bad company and just care about stock holders, not me, customer 1st always, remember I’m not doing any of my customers in and around Boston, in a somewhat snowy season you try to do the customers in a different weather code which is south of Providence and Plymouth, after March 21st if snow is gone in Boston area you can apply Lime as its very beneficial esp with a spring Fertilizer really makes the lawn pop, anyways have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. I’ve had customers that werent comfortable with it, and thats fine, they r few and far between, esp the longer you are in the program, it’s sort of a trust thing after a couple years and believe me customer is always right 🙂

    1. I love snow in Dec,Jan and even Feb but not now, I can do without, like I said though I’m watching the models like a hawk

  28. 12Z GFS also says no spring through the next two weeks for sure. Looks below average if you believe anything the GFS says

  30. Sure looks like something is brewing for middle of next week. GFS has the storm over Albany while the Euro has it off the coast of NJ around the same time. That is not much difference really being 9 days out. Both models would indicate there is plenty of cold air to work with for significant snow north and west of wherever the storm tracks.

    Euro track seems more plausible to me at this time with indications that a fairly strong NAO will remain in place through at least 3/20.

    1. Interesting though that in the next 2 frames it has a low sitting and spinning in the gulf of maine…

      1. And even at hr 192 in the frame u posted OS, the 850mb temps are plenty cold enough in central and northern NE. Its gonna be close.

        1. Right,

          That is why I said that we need to know what
          is projected to happen between 192 and 216.
          I still strongly suspect a period of warmth. The questions is how long does the warmth last?

          And does it really take that track? More likely to
          track more Easterly than that. We’ll see.

  34. One would think the low would form on the coast given the NAO being negative. Of course Henry Marguisty said winter was over after the last storm so this will be a rainorma. There is something to watch early next week.

  35. Then it wants to stick around:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013031112&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013031112&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    Don’t know what qpf looks like. At 192,216 and 240, 850MB temps are cold.
    Don’t know what happens between hour 192 and hour 216, but I suspect a period of
    warmth, at least at the 850mb level.

    Anyone have more detailed info on that? Not that it really matters this far out, but
    hey, that’s what we do! 😀

    1. I was thinking the same thing OS! I would love to see more detail at those intervals, but its unfortunate the euro on wunderground doesn’t go out past 180 hrs

      1. Actually, until recently that was the case. Last week it was
        only going to 144 hours. Does it now go to 180 again?

        Thanks

      2. I’m sure Retrac and/or hadi will provide some info on this as soon
        as they have a chance to check in. 😀

    1. Oh, that long? I knew it’s been doing that for awhile.
      I doubt that there is anything wrong. They probably just decided
      for whatever reason, to bring it out to 144 hours only. I’d bet $$$
      has something to do with it. 😀

  39. Big signals for a monster storm coming in the midweek time frame next week, whether it ends up being heavy rain or heavy snow for us. Whoever sits north and west of the storm track could get buried. This storm looks like a SLOW mover as well. I just read that this run dumped 4 FEET of snow on the Green Mtns. of VT, though for the I-95 corridor, it would be an all rain event.

    2. I sure would NOT count on all Rain at this point. It could very well be, but
      given how things have played out this year and how far out this is, coupled with -NAO and +PNS, it could end up the Grand Daddy snowstorm of the year. 😀

      For now, we’ll watch, speculate and see. 😀

      1. Well if I wasn’t so wrong last week I’d be more vocal but your up so i will sit down haha 🙂

    2. The 4 foot totals could be the entire Euro run (240 hours) as there are a few events for VT preceding this one. I haven’t seen the precip maps myself, but the storm looks loaded with moisture and there is plenty of cold air to work with.

  41. flood watch in place for portions of eastern and central mass do to 1 to 1.5 inches of rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. GREAT marshland is already a quarter full and not all the snow has melted… concord river is already over its banks. i rather have 1 inch of water in the form of snow so it gradually melts not causing flooding 🙁 my freind lives on the concord and says the water is past the river wall they built

  42. Charlie, I was out in Uxbridge and was surprised how much less snow cover they have. Once into Holliston on the way home it was 100%.

  43. So here is the EURO break down,
    hr 192-warm everywhere 850 temps
    hr 198-still warm even into VT 850 temps
    h 204 – much colder at 850 temps

    2 M temps are also marginal for eastern mass much better much further NW

  44. Just look at the Euro at hour 240. Loks more like mid winter than late March.
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Cold throughout much of the run, coastal storm still affecting us at hour 240, and another storm forming over Texas at the end of the run which could be the next weather producer.

    And not to mention, but the Euro looks colder for the weekend event with potential for a light to moderate snowfall in many areas!

    1. Indeed. The atmosphere is loaded for bear. Not sure it will get one, but it’s
      ready. 😀

  46. Also, for those saying that the current track for the 3/20 storm is not viable because we have a -NAO, not necessarily true. The inland/Great Lakes track with late coastal redevelopment is typical with an east based NAO. We need the NAO to be west based to drive the storm further south and east up the coast.

    It’s just too early right now to have any idea what is going to happen, other than saying that a fairly potent storm is looking more likely in that time period.

  48. Been off the grid today guys…and off to another meeting now….

    New Euro puts heaviest snow central and northern new england with 6″ amounts down to the Pike.

    Heavy amounts will make there way here in the end IMHO. Climo will favor a favorable track for at least inland areas IMHO.

  49. The dreaded pin the tail on the rain snow line. This COULD end up being an elevation storm.

      1. Philip I forgot about that. This time of year especially coastal areas need that dynamic cooling since this late winter storms don’t usually have a lot of cold air to work with.

  51. I rember in 07 we had a big clod storm on or around st Patrick’s day . It was in the 70s a few day before. Worcester ended up with 18″ of snow and sleet. Temps in the mid 20s.

    1. Cat you are right it was March 16. I had mentioned it yesterday as we had to cancel my oldests wedding shower in the 17th. We had the shower the next weekend and it was warm enough to sit on the deck

  52. Sky’s have turned mostly cloudy here, I expect occasional showers after midnight to evolve into more of a steady rain Tue afternoon.

  54. Tied up with a meeting until sometime after 8. Can’t even see the start of the B’s! Noooooooooooo!!! Maybe they will score 3 goals in the 3rd period and win 3-0 again. 🙂

    I’ll be back in a while and will update as soon as possible!

  55. Let’s hope the Euro shows a direct hit early and then maybe it will either go out to see or go inland. Seemed to be the opposite with the last storm…showed OTS and then BAM!

    1. Hi Emily. Your poems arrived. My husband is reading them too. His comment was that this is how poetry should be. Rather than trying to interpret something that is confusing, the words are straight forward which allows you to feel them

      I loved your intro as much as I do the poetry. You could have been writing about my oldest who found herself through her horses. As I think you have in many ways through your cats. I think I sensed that to begin with. Thank you very much for sharing. Is there anyplace I can put a comment? I don’t have FB

      1. It is going to be on Amazon in a week or so 😀 I’ll post the link when that happens! 🙂 And tell your husband thank you so much!! And thank YOU Vicki!

  58. Someone help me please. It’s been an odd day and I am seeing double. What day are you all expedition a storm ? Snow?

      1. Vicki,

        The possibilities are:

        This Sunday, the 17th and Wednesday the 20th.

        These events are out there, so NO ONE can say with any kind
        of confidence what it will do. We’re all watching.

        Sunday likely to be much more minor than Wednesday.

  59. My wife said for the 1st time that 100’s of people were forced to stand all the way to Mansfield, she said she’s never seen people standing past the rt 128 stop, they need to do something at south station, they need more tracks or something

    2. They just need a more efficient operation, which they are totally and completely
      incapable of doing. 😀

      1. 2013 will set another record on ridership ever, I was in that south station at 5:00 pm and the place ain’t big enough for the amount of people in there, it’s crazy 🙂

      2. I guess if they are incapable of doing that then they need more tracks, I’ve heard of trains having to wait for trains coming in and going out its an accident waiting to happen geez it’s just terrible have a good night os 🙂

  60. What a difference a year makes…..

    It was about a year ago that the Great Lakes”super ridge” was about to set in with all time record highs of 70s and 80s lasting for days in the Great Lakes and Northeast.

    Meanwhile, this year, we are celebrating low 50s, the NAO is very negative and it looks chilly in the long range. Payback city. 🙁

  62. I’ve noticed the lake is about an inch below the road, I wonder if 1 inch of rain will make it come over the road, I’ve seen it come over the road about 4 times in my life and 2 of those 4 times the road became impassable with about 15 inches of water on it connecting the 2 lakes to make the 1/2 mile road disappear, it’s weird bc it takes alot to rise it but it takes alot to dry up unlike some ponds and lakes, when they’ve had to close it it’s usually closed until theres less than 3 inches on road and for that 3 inches to dry up it will take 7-10 days providing no more rain comes, sorry for the ramble, will see what happens 🙂

  63. Tom, your observation about the difference between this year and last is so apt. Last year, however, was truly anomalous. I was in the White Mountains for 3 days last year at this time. I arrived in the middle of a minor snowstorm (6 inches). The mountains looked great, even though the season had been quite miserable. Then the warmth took over. Bretton Woods got so warm they had to close most of the trails, as the melting was just unbelievable. Even the top of Mt. Washington lost a lot of snow in a hurry and looked gray, rather than white. It was a peculiar sight in March. Alarming, actually. This year really does bring us back to reality. Thankfully, in my view, not that I truly enjoy March weather. But, I do like it to be normal.

    A much colder March was to be expected, as were multiple snow chances, given the law of averages. Regardless of whether it will snow at the coast, I think that we’re going to see some really chilly nights during the next 2 weeks. Lows may reach the teens, with plenty of wind as well.

    1. Not that I know a lot about it, but this weather is probably good for getting the Sap from the Maple Trees to flow at its best. Above freezing by day, below freezing at night.

      Hopefully the ski slopes can last into April this year. Must be a great time to ski.

    1. I remember that storm well. It was a Saturday and my bowling league was cancelled. The snow came up to my knee caps with that storm. I was 8 years old at time. I remember one forecaster here in CT saying a few days prior to the storm the big kahuna is coming on Saturday and it sure did.

      1. My inlaws lived in charleston SC at the time and were visiting friends in England. They heard about its pending arrival and called to see what was happening. It sure affected a lot of areas

        1. It was the biggest storm in my life to affect the east coast. There was severe weather in Florida as the storm came out of the Gulf Coast. Snow from Alabama and Georgia all the way up to Maine.

    2. Awesome storm, on my 30th bday, remember it well! Seemed like it was predicted a week in advance…

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