Nifty Fifty

132 Comments

12:34AM

50 degrees for a high temp on Monday in Boston, 50+ Tuesday and again Wednesday. It’s a trio of mildness, melting lots of snow, but about half way through it will be a bout of rain as a cold front ambles west to east across the region. This will take place Tuesday midday through Tuesday night. Some flooding of streams and small rivers is possible due to rain combined with melting snow from late Tuesday through midweek. Some of the medium to larger rivers may have minor flooding in prone areas during midweek.

Colder air will return later in the week as an upper level trough swings across the region Thursday and Friday. A wave of low pressure will come along Saturday and produce a minor to moderate precipitation event. The timing and precipitation type is unknown at this time, but it does have a decent chance of producing some snow. Right now it looks like the system will get out of the way for St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers developing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some possibly heavy, ending west to east late. Breaking clouds following. Lows around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/mix to mix/snow. Low 29. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

132 thoughts on “Nifty Fifty”

  5. Thanks TK !

    North-central Canada has reloaded with Arctic Air, seen on infrared satellite images. How it all interacts with the negative NAO should be interesting.

  9. WOW! Snow almost gone. We have “about” 75% coverage in JP this morning, however,
    by the time I got to the office about 3 miles away, 80% bare ground!

    Bare ground showing at home. Certainly will be all gone in the next day or 2.

    Other models beginning to get on board for the 20th. Still much to come together.
    No definitive solution just yet. All eyes are watching.

    1. We’re getting wiped out too O.S. More than you guys still with a general 12-16″ but shrinking fast.

      The storm next week will snow on us IMHO. Glad its not a perfect solution still.

      1. Agreed. Plenty of time for this to unfold.

        With the teleconnections in place next week and Arctic air to the North, the stage is set for a “possible Biggie”. We’ll just have to wait and see how all of the ingredients come together. Will an exquisite cake be baked? OR will it fall flat? 😀

    1. Plenty of time for this to change. I think we are all in pretty good agreement that the ultimate solution will be colder.

      The GFS and CMC are slowly coming around to a colder solution.

      We shall see. 😀

  14. Do we know how saturdays event is going to playout now. I saw it was moved from Sunday to Saturday. We looking at mostly rain or mixing. If mix will it hamper things.

  15. The euro has now been showing rain for Boston and Providence with consistency, definatly looks like a big rainstorm to usher in Spring, yes its early but all bets r all rain unless u get into the berkshires north, this storm will actually be forecasted well in advance, modeks r showing a decent consensus already, yes its nice to watch but would not get hopes up,, we have bare ground here, even the plowed snow banks r few and far between, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. Not trying to be a Debbie downer for all the snow lovers, there’s just to many signals for a rainstorm here as supposed to a snowstorm, just to many hints saying all rain

    2. Charlie,

      You “may” be correct, but there are also many factors in place that
      suggest an eventual Colder solution.

      I certainly would NOT bet on Rain at this point. 😀

  17. The hints were there for a rainstorm from the last one, and we all know how that turned out. Seems the theme this winter has been no sure things until 24 hours out, and even then we have had our share of surprises. In fact, I would say surprises have been the norm this winter.

      1. Charlie,

        The models are “Trending” towards a colder solution.

        Not that it guarantees a colder solution, however, it appears
        to be a trend. Did you see the FIM solution I posted earlier?

        CMC and GFS are also trending colder.

        We shall see. You may be disappointed. 😀

        1. Nah, hes just upset he may have to tell all those plow drivers they need to put their plows back on 😛

          1. That’s funny and then again it’s not funny should
            that happen. I’d be “WISHING” it through
            the Great Lakes as well.
            😀

    1. Yuck, we were stuck in that pattern at the beginning of the winter which shunted all the storms to the great lakes

  19. Charlie you realize it’s March 20th next week so the odds are that it is a rain storm. Nothing crazy about thinking rain around these parts during this time of the year, the key is that it’s still 7 days away and sorry you can’t confidently says rain or snow at this point.

  20. FYI, the 0z Euro ensembles are much colder than the opertional for the 3/20 storm, as is the GFS and FIM that OS posted.

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    Charlie, way too early to confidently say this will be a rain event for SNE. Climatology favors it along the 95 corridor, but it could very well be a different story in the not too distant interior, and perhaps even in coastal areas if the storm is strong enough and we get the favorable track that the Mon AM 0z Euro was showing.

    1. I knew this would get the snow lovers roughed up, I would be suprised if we get anymore snow in Boston, the only thing I can say is prove me wrong, I’ll be waiting and watching future runs 🙂

  21. I’m playing the odds like hadi said, and haha no the plows will not go back on, they got sanders, not concerned about that, actually not really concerned about anything with this storm, will see how it pans out, I’ll be around dont worry:)

      1. I can’t os I love snow alot more than rain for sure, just not in March, but Dec,Jan and feb r fine for snow, not now 🙂

  22. Hadi, I concur completely!

    Sure, it “may” very well end up being a rainstorm, but can anyone be confident
    at this point? No. No One can be.

    It is also equally (imho) likely to be a snow event.

    In short, at this point it could go either way. Right now, I’m willing to go 50-50 on
    it. Of course, that is subject to change with subsequent runs. 😀

  23. btw, 12Z GFS accelerates Saturday’s (Formerly Sunday’s) event and moves it
    up to Friday night and takes it SOUTH of the area. 😀

    1. Anything that falls from the sky will likely be rain, even though 850mb temps
      are very cold. Precip just too light and surface temps well into the 30’s or even
      low 40s. IF intensity were there, it surely would snow, but doesn’t appear
      to be in the cards. 😀

  24. If I was a weather forecaster on channel 4 I certainly wouldn’t say with such confidence but this is a blog folks, don’t take offense when someone says all the snows gone and rain is coming, as I said I see the models, but playing the odds and they r low, enjoy blogging with u all 🙂

  25. GFS sure doesn’t have a GL storm, it re-develops but a little further north for eastern mass, but a big hit for interior areas.

        1. I agree….the strong blocking is going to trigger coastal redevelopment, the question is where. -NAO trending more west based next week should help the storm develop more south and east. Someone in New England is going to get a lot of snow out of this.

  29. its gonna rain buckets tonight. possible clipper system second half of the week. rainorma next week?

      1. beleive me i want a snoworama as well because i rather have alot of snow than 1 to 3 inches of rain. which will lead to moderate flooding of rivers that are already high. Marshland behind my house is half full already and the lower paths that my brothers and i have made are flooded. and the water almost reaches the second level pathways

  30. Greetings from Anegada, BVI. Current temperature 81 degrees, dewpoint 68 degrees, breeze 10 mph out of the NE. Okay, I don’t have any weather instruments with me, but those are “well-educated” guesses. (The conditions are pretty consistent here, day to day.)

    Fingers crossed for rain next week. Glad to hear that the snow sits melting fast. I hope it is all gone in Quincy when I return next week.

  31. 12Z Euro looks a tad colder no? Doesn’t show any real spring warmth anytime soon either. Anyone else have thoughts?

    1. Spring warmth in March is rare. You’re right, though, models (not just Euro) seem to have a consensus on one thing: it’ll be cool to cold most of this month, with some exceptions here and there (like today).

    2. Whatever comes before a “tad” is how much colder the 12z run is compared to the 00z run.

      Forget March for Spring. And don’t get your hopes up until we’re past the first or even second week of April IMHO.

  32. 25. 59.2″ = 1945-46

    26. 58.5″ = 1976-77
    27. 57.3″= 1970-71
    28. 55.9″= 2012-13**

    Fwiw…Logan needs 3.3″ to make the Top-25 snowiest. 🙂

  33. There are NO signs of any prolonged warmth in sight.
    I always hear from people getting ruffled that it’s so cold in New England in the Spring. That MIGHT just have something to do with that massive body of water called … The Atlantic Ocean … that is at is coldest during the first 3 months of the year. That, and the fact there is plenty of snowcover most years in Canada and plenty of cold air to be generated and maintained, and then delivered. 🙂

    1. I am one that constantly complains about spring in New England. It’s cold, damp, muddy, often gray, and makes me want to just DIE.

      Thank god the light at the end of that tunnel is summer.

  34. NWS Taunton favoring the colder solution with the midweek storm.

    TUE INTO WED…
    MOST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK THE BLOCKING
    PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SOMETIME THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
    WEEK…ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM RIDGING OVER THE E AND A MUCH
    STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION. AT THIS
    TIME…THE ECMWF /AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ ARE LEANING TOWARD A
    COLDER SRN LOW PRES PASSAGE…WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM IT/S
    00Z COUNTERPART. AT THIS POINT…KIND OF LIKE THIS IDEA GIVEN THE
    FACT THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS LIKELY TOO QUICK TO BREAK THE PATTERN
    IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE A LOT OF PLAYERS THAT NEED TO FALL IN
    LINE HERE…ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEPARATE STREAM WAVE PHASING THAT
    MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THIS FAR OUT…BUT WILL
    CONTINUE LEAN TOWARD THE MORE ECMWF…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
    COLDER STORM POSSIBLE FOR NEAR MID NEXT WEEK.

  36. hello everyone from Fort Meyers. 76 degrees, grey and drizzle. Improvement expected for rest of week.

  37. RE: Next Week’s mid-week event

    Still way too far out to really know too much. I agree signs point to a colder solution,
    whatever that turns out to be.

    Looking over the FIM. It wants to give us 2 events that kind of merge together into
    one rather prolonged event. 850mb charts not available. Don’t know why. Here are a few mslp/1000-500mb thickness charts:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013031200/3hap_sfc_f174.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013031200/3hap_sfc_f186.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013031200/3hap_sfc_f198.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013031200/3hap_sfc_f204.png

  38. NIFTY FIFTY equaled 58 degrees today!!

    Snow => Basically GONE, piles and a few patches in shady areas is all
    that’s left. 😀

  40. 18Z GFS has a warmer solution to the event mid-week next week and not especially
    potent either. 😀

    BUT, hey it’s the 18Z GFS, so who gives a Rat’s A**!

            1. models just having trouble handling blocking just like last week. We’ll get a better idea about 48-60 hours out.

              1. I’m With you. We “may” just be in for it, yet again. 😀

                Will be fun to watch anyway.

    1. btw, check out the 2M temperatures (bottom right chart).
      Pretty darn cold. About 32 in Boston, 20s N&W.

      1. There’s a lot of cold air on the maps still to TK’s point. The end of the period on the Euro has a good slug of it not too far away in Canada.

      2. It’s going to start to heat up from the NC/VA line on south over the period and with all this cold air hanging around………

      2. I had one, but someone around here has put the trees on steroids
        and they are Sooooo much higher than my equipment on the roof
        that reasonable readings are no longer possible. 😀

        1. Let me guess – a Norway Spruce right or something similar.

          I’ve got my eye on a couple of different Davis weather stations – tax return hmmmmmm.

  44. Wall of rain approaching eastern Mass that then appears to shut off very quickly when it tapers off.

  45. 52 deg here with 51 DP. .18 rain now but really coming down. Wind gust of 15

    Keith are you out there. Have a question about restaurants in hingham if you are

  46. Something is definetly brewing for next week. Right now I would have the inland areas particularly up in elevation getting some snowfall. If the low could track to the sweet spot and is strong enough areas closer to the coast could get into the action.
    Just an early call.

    1. I think that Boston N&W gets into snow. S&E is up in the air.
      And of course, impossible to really say right now. But no matter what,
      SOMETHING is percolating for next week. 😀

      1. 495 n&w imo but I’m still licking my wounds from last storm, but ya gotta admit it’s remarkable how fast 50+ inches of snow in the last 4 weeks fell and it’s all gone, the weather is fascinating in all aspects, take it easy os 🙂

  47. I would have north and west to get some sort of accumulating snow at the moment.
    Winter is hanging tough this year.

    1. .23 here. Husband just said good thing this isn’t snow……hmmmmmm not sure how I feel about that

  49. Over half an inch here too Charlie. Looks like it may just go on a little longer but shut off within a half hour here.

  50. Interesting, anomalous weather pattern in North West Europe. Spring hit big time last week for a 6-day stretch. Close to 60 and sunny in Amsterdam. Then, a vigorous cold front pushed aside the warmth on Saturday and Sunday and temps tumbled to below freezing at night and around freezing during the day; some 20 degrees colder than average. Such rapid oscillation in temps is a rarity in North West Europe, and a prolonged cold spell in March is rarer still. It won’t hold on for very long, as temps should rebound to the 40s by Friday. Nevertheless, the region has had some snow and cold to deal with, especially yesterday and today.

  55. Interesting comment on the BZ blog saying if Baileyman does not post no big snowstorm will happen. I have to admit Baileyman is good.
    My early call snow for the elevated areas of SNE but a lot could change.

    1. He probably made the comment himself under another name. 😀

      He/she/it likes to have a lot of fun in an anonymous way. 😀

      The author of the true BM posts is indeed an experienced meteorologist, however.

  57. No flooding problems down here, I even drove down the road that separates 2 lakes, it looks like it’s around an inch below road so the half inch that fell didn’t make it raise much but it is high, the ten mile river is about a foot in a half below flood stage, have a good night everyone 🙂

Comments are closed.