The Chill Is Back

126 Comments

2:31AM

Hello, March Chill! Although it won’t be excessively cold, a below normal temperature pattern is setting up shop across the Northeast as the jet stream dips to the south for much of the coming week. A series of cold fronts is pushing through the region through Friday, delivering the cold air. A wave of low pressure will pass just south of New England Saturday and produce lots of clouds with some threat of light snow/mix but it looks very minor. A more important system will come along from the west early next week with additional precipitation. This looks more important than Saturday’s system but does not look like a major storm.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, some sun, isolated light snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain/mix/snow possible. Low 27. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly to mostly sunny.  Low 22. High 41.

MONDAY: Sunshine to clouds. Low 24. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow. Low 31. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

126 thoughts on “The Chill Is Back”

  1. TK, thanks for update. Unfortunately looks like I am flying back from Florida on a bad weather day, Tuesday.

  2. Thanks TK !

    EURO has quite a redevelopment, 986 mb, right over Boston. Will be interesting to see that track over next few days as we get closer.

    Also, interesting that, as the big block continues in long term, I like how the EURO shows some moderation in the 850 temps. During the next 10 days, the sun will climb a total of 3-4 degrees and at some point, while staying chilly and below normal, its likely that even in Canada, the airmass will begin to moderate slightly from very cold/arctic due to their sun angle approaching 30-45 degrees above the horizon at solar noon, from north to south.

  3. Weather report from Fort Myers.
    Current temp: 53
    Expected high: 68
    Skies: clear
    Wind: 10-12 mph; gusts 16 mph
    Visibility: 10 miles

  7. EURO has that bomb just about 200 miles too far north and west, let’s see what the next couple days brings.

  8. Rainorama early next week for most. Interior areas especially in elevation wintry mess to rainorama. If what the EURO depicts could shift offshore it will be a much different outcome. I would not give up on that solution given the negative NAO and AO but I would favor the rainorama at this point and the wintry mess going over to a rainorma for the elevated areas of SNE.

  9. EURO has about 2 inches QPF for next week, EURO does show about .20 QPF on the front end of snow and them temps shoot up and all rain. But to be honest it’s not far off from being cold. For sure its going to be close.

  10. It’s Thursday morning. Plenty of time for forecasts to change. Euro has already changed dramatically from yesterday’s runs. I expect more changes over the coming days. It will likely be a rain event at the coast, but who knows given what has happened this winter.

    1. Note the strong high to the north of New England in Canada (1034 mb). You can just see the cold air damming on that image. This could spell trouble for the interior for a prolonged period of frozen precip.

  14. FWIW, the NWS Taunton said in their discussion that they are tossing the 0z Euro and going with yesterday’s 12z Euro for their forecast.

      1. I think we have a trend going here and that trend is to a colder solution with the storm on or OFF the coast! 😀 We shall see.

        But what do we know??????

  15. It’ll be in a more favorable position in the end peeps – I’m remarkably at ease about this too which is odd given how I normally am. Think I’m going through a change… 🙂 🙂

    1. I’m suprised 🙂 I think it’s a slam dunk rainstorm for Boston, I’m not concerned at all but been wrong before 🙂

  16. Good morning guys and gals, no new news on this front other then spring is just about here, Go Patriots!! Draft is 5 weeks!!!

  21. Any chance this CAD can include the coastal plain of SNE? I do understand that it is mostly found in the interior.

  22. CAD usually involves icy mixes so I hope this doesn’t result in massive power outages. IIRC residents along the route 2 corridor lost their power for over two weeks a few years ago. This actually brought to light the problem of power companies and their handling of major storms. I forget the specific power company that was involved.

  25. re: CAD

    Depending upon the exact set up, CAD can result in SNOW
    OR SLEET, but often times it can mean Freezing Rain.

    In this particular set up, too early to know for sure, but it could
    end up being all of the above. A period of snow, then sleet and then
    Rain on the coast and freezing rain inland. Sometimes it can result
    in a very serious ice storm.

    We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
    😀

  27. IMHO was too soon to jump on any solution at this point. The way winter has been we need to wait at least until Sat/Sun to have a legitimate handle on this.

    1. Hadi many thank for the link to eye candy. And that map is with the
      current 0Z solution. Imagine if it ends up near the benchmark?

      And, I agree, too early to lock in on a solution. So far, the solutions have
      been all over the map. 😀 😀

      I sense a trend. We shall see.

      It will be most interesting to see what the 12Z runs bring.

  29. I was driving through the Pine Hills in Plymouth the other day and had a good look at all of the tree damage now that the snow is gone. Amazing. Then from the back seat my 7-year old son proclaims that there must be a Sasquatch in those woods because he watched Finding Big Foot and they claim that they make the trees into the shape of an X. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that it wasn’t Sasquatch and that it was little old Nemo. 🙂

  31. That’s not gonna happen IMHO, Still rain in the Boston area but not bc of a track like the GFS is showing.

  33. 12Z Canadian has the secondary low forming over NYC. There is a lot of cold air still in place during the initial overrunning period. Really gives a good up front thumping of snow to much of SNE before an eventual change over to sleet and rain.

    1. Yes,

      Here is the 12Z CMC at 120 hours with 850mb temps at -10C!!!
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=120&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      132 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

      the 850mb Chart to go with it:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=132&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=132&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      That’s showing -5C over the Boston Area. 😀

      at 144 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

      Note: that is a 977MB Gorilla! 😀

      1. Sorry, that -5C for Boston area is a mistake! I must have
        been looking at a different chart. My apologies.

        So this shows a snow to rain to snow scenario.

        It’s getting there. 😀

    1. Wundermap not quite ready. It has it out to 123 hours with SNOW!!!
      A decent slug of it at that. Hadi, you out there?
      2M 32F line comes just about through Boston (Just a tad West).

      More soon.

      1. CLOSE!! Euro 850 temps stay Below Freezing from Boston N&W.
        2M temps go above freezing almost to the Berkshires. Coastal
        hugs the coast pretty much. Not a ton of qpf.

        I’m guessing “about” .75 inch. I wonder how far off I am. 😀

        Shows “about” 3-6 inches of snow before any possible changeover/mix.

      1. Not 12 hours. 120 to 144 = 24 hours. 😀
        Do you teach Math????? 😀 😀 😀

        Seriously, just kidding.

    1. JJ
      The current trend is towards your snoworama. 😀
      Could end up being snow from Boston North and West, which is what I
      originally thought. Certainly could be an all rain event as well.
      Just too early to say, but it is getting more and more interesting to say the least.
      😀

    1. Appreciate it Retrac. It is very difficult to determine total qpf from
      that Wundermap. It doesn’t even state what period for what the qpf totals are.

      Most maps have a label that tell us that the qpf is a 6 hour total, even if
      the map is in 3 hour increments. Of course, to me, if the map is in 3 hr increments, then the qpf totals should be 3 hour totals. But they don’t pay me to produce those maps! 😀

      Look forward see seeing the qpf figures, and perhaps a hint at the snowmap?

    1. Thanks Hadi. Never would have guessed that much from looking at the Wundermap. What was it yesterday, like .5 inch. Moving on Up!
      😀

  40. New euro has around 8″ plus going from south to north from Mass/Ct./RI border to NH line. 12″ in NH.

    B.L. tamps a problem inside of 95 especially since it comes during the day Tues.

    Low goes basically W/E right over the cape. (Chatham)

    Doesn’t get below 100mb until past our latitude.

    Model starting to come around to what I’ve been thinking. Think it’ll shift another 25-50 miles south in time.

    1. Thanks Retrac. I saw the earlier link from the 0z EURO showed 6 inches for my part of CT. From what you posted it sounds
      like about the same amount.

  42. I’m not looking at any of the graphics, is there any signal of a dry slot ? I’d think with an initial Great Lakes primary and a coastal secondary, that precip ending quickly from SW to NE is a possibility.

  44. Many thanks to Hadi and Retrac for sharing that 12Z Euro information.

    Almost ready to state: “GAME ON!!!!”
    Not quite, but almost. 😀

    Curious to SEE what, IF anything, our friends at the Taunton NWS office have to say
    about this run??? 😀

      1. Taunton office as of 3:36PM today! You gotta be kidding me!!!!

        */MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…

        FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM HERE ON AGREES UPON AN INSIDE-RUNNER STORM SYSTEM YET VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON OUTCOMES. SUBSEQUENTLY…SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS AND THE TIMING OF WHICH ARE VERY
        UNCERTAIN. OF SOME CONFIDENCE IS THE EXPECTATION OF THE DOUBLE-
        BARREL LOW SETUP. HAVE PREFERENCE TO THE 13.12Z ECMWF

        C’MON now. This was almost 4PM today, 3/14 and they
        have preference to the 3/13 12Z RUN?!@#I(!@*#()!&@#*(&!()@)!(@#()!*@(#*!()@&#*()!&@#*(&!*(&@*&#(!*@#&*&(

        1. Even Gray, ME office uses the 0Z Euro in its forecast
          discussion. NO mention of the 12Z Euro of today. I guess they just need more time to digest it.

          IF it were me, I would ALWAYS want to incorporate
          the very LATEST information.

          Go Figure.

          1. Did you expect anything different from Taunton O.S. – I’d be concerned otherwise – you know better!

            Feels like mid-winter cold out there today with the wind B.T.W.

            1. LOL

              No, I didn’t expect anything else.
              Still, I was “hoping” there would be
              some mention of the 12Z Euro and a bit
              of a change to the forecast.

              I think they do a Tremendous disservice to the Public with all of the OLD information and OLD forecast they perpetuate on that site. 😀

  46. The thing is, if they feel the latest info is not valuable, and that info from a run or 2 or even 3 before is showing the solution they believe, there isn’t anything wrong with referring to it in the discussion. Model runs don’t always get more correct closer to an event. In theory they should, but we know this not to be the case all of the time.

    I will often refer to a run prior to the current set when forecasting.

    1. TK, that is fine, but they should clearly state that in their discussion.

      Something to the effect that the 12Z run shows a coastal redevelopment, but we do not believe that to be the solution as we believe the final outcome will
      be closer to the 0Z run or the previous days 12Z run.

      You know what I am saying.

      I know you have stated that there are some good guys there.

      I really don’t mean to bash anyone, but I do NOT like the way their forecast
      discussions are presented. I don’t like the way the whole office appears to
      operate. I think things could be done much much better.

      Oh well, I rant again. 😀

      1. They do get some new guys in there periodically, so you do see some stylistic differences and inexperience show up from time to time. 🙂

    1. What I posted was from 3:36PM. TK must have called them. 😀

      The 4:12 discussion was MUCH better. That’s what I was talking about. 😀

    2. That’s wonderful.

      Of course the temperature was 11 degrees below normal for that day. I’m sure that had to do with global warming too. 😛

    3. Wow. Thanks OS. Have been off at my daughters ultrasound which was postponed because of the last big storm – also part of global warming.

      I have this bookmarked. Again. Great read

  49. Good evening, cloudy weather during this time of year spells chilly weather, been out all day and it’s raw with that breeze brrrr

  50. Models trending colder and liking the latest EURO. I’m still very suspicious for yet another major snowstorm in Boston early next week 😀

  51. This afternoon’s CPC outlook continues to show above-well above normal precip and below normal temps for most of the CONUS almost from coast-to-coast through the rest of the month…looking excellent for more snow events assuming all this verifies! 🙂

  52. Philip I would love to see those below normal temps shown by the CPC during the summers month with normal amounts of precipitation. I am not a fan of the 3 H weather.
    The EURO shows about 6 inches for me here in CT.

    1. Below Normal summer temps. I missed that. I’d like to see also. HHH my only not comfy weather period.

          1. Believe it or not I don’t go in my pool often. I grew up on the beach and a beach guy, don’t get there often. After a hot summer day in Boston in jeans and boots you would think I would go in the pool. nope give me a nice hot coffee. I probably go in my pool less than ten times a season.

          2. It sorta crazy that not everyone has ac, went to a concert at a theater in Boston with friends, well wouldn’t u know late May 90 degrees and no ac, people were sweating to death,

  53. Below normal temps are not forecasted for the summer. I would like to see the climate prediction show below normal temps for the summer months when they show their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks along with normal precipitation.I like the warm weather I am just not a fan of 3 H weather. When I was on vacation a couple years ago golfing with these two guys from the Monteray Peninsula in California and said summer temps are generally in the 60s and 70s with plenty of sunshine and no humidity. I thought to myself why can’t that be the way our summer is. I am winter and fall person.

      1. JJ, Vicki: You have an ally in me. 3 H is so hard for me to deal with. As I age, it’s gotten worse, especially breathing-wise. I must say, even though it’s gray outside today I’m a fan of the chill because I just breathe better. The air seems cleaner. Probably all a perception thing. I do like 60s and 70s with no humidity, too. Alas, that’s not common around here except in the fall. One thing you could do is head north. Quebec City rarely gets 3 H, even in summer’s peak. It can be 98 in Boston (3 H) and low 80s with almost no humidity up there. Also the nights cool off so much more than here. Hardly ever a tropical (i.e., sweaty) evening.

          1. Yes, indeed. Was lucky as a kid growing up in Needham to have our own little pond near the edge of the woods where I would skate and stay outside forever, or so it seemed. We’re talking about 40 years ago.

              1. Spent a lot of time in Europe. Might have impacted my written English to make it sound Canadian … Who knows … I also have mentioned Canada a lot on this blog, because I have traveled there some. One thing for sure, I don’t sound like Michael Ryder or Adam McQuaid (Ryder especially sounds like a Scotsman).

                1. Yes you have mentioned Canada some and Europe, I think your posts are always good. So spending time in Canada and being a hockey guy, have you ever heard of the frozen pond in I believe Ontario. They deal with hockey memorabilia. I at one time gave them a lot of business.

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