The Week Ahead

353 Comments

12:51AM

The feel of winter has become established as we head through the final days of the season and toward the start of Spring (Vernal Equinox at 7:02AM Wednesday March 20). The winter feel will continue during this week, making it nothing like the corresponding week last year, when high temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s every day March 18-23. This time we’ll be dealing with high temperatures mostly in the 30s to lower 40s. Another example of how variable the weather can be.

The big story of the week upcoming will be the winter storm that will impact the region Monday night through Tuesday evening. A combination of precipitation can be expected, including some significant accumulation of snow and sleet. Thankfully, coastal flooding will be limited due to the configuration of the low pressure system and astronomically lower tides.

The winter storm is expected to evolve this way: Low pressure travels northeastward into the Great Lakes and transfers energy to a new low pressure area developing near or just off the New Jersey  Coast Monday night and Tuesday, with this new low strengthening rapidly as it passes over southeastern New England and into the waters just east of  Boston by Tuesday night. With late-season cold and dry arctic air over the region, which will be tough to dislodge, especially near the surface, expect the precipitation to start later Monday night as snow pretty much everywhere. As warm air works in from south to north above, a changeover to sleet and rain will evolve first in southern areas then pushing northward. Though the exact positioning of a rain/sleet/snow line is still not certain, it appears that the earliest change to sleet and mostly rain will take place along the South Coast including Cape Cod. A more prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain will take place from Boston north and west, with snow being dominant in areas mostly along and outside I-495 and most especially in higher elevations. Sleet may become dominant in the areas just south and southwest of Boston. Some icing (freezing rain) may also be an issue where the layer of colder air trapped near the ground is not as thick as it is where sleet falls. Again, this mix/change zone will be very tough to pin down until pretty much during the event, so it is most wise for everybody to expect at least some mixing unless you are located far northwest of the city. The ultimate behavior of this mix/change area will have significant impact on snow/sleet amounts. Another wild card to snow amounts is the possibility of a snow burst on the back side of the departing storm later Tuesday. Will watch this closely as well.

After this latest mess exits, the remainder of the week ahead will be on the chilly side, less stormy, but still somewhat unsettled as an upper level low pressure area hangs around. We do have to watch for a disturbance traveling around this trough that may possibly bring one more period of mix/snow Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny start…cloudy finish. Highs struggle to near 40. Wind E-SE 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast thickens. Snow develops by late evening well south and southwest of Boston then spreads to the north and east overnight with up to a few inches by daybreak. Lows upper 20s to around 30. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation, moderate to heavy at times especially in the morning, transitioning from snow to sleet/ice/rain over RI and southeastern & coastal MA and mixing with sleet further inland, probably tapering off somewhat in the afternoon, but another burst of mix to snow is possible evening especially Boston area northward (uncertainty here, please check later updates). Expected total snow/sleet accumulation up to 3 inches South Coast RI/MA including Cape Cod & South Shore MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere except over 6 inches generally around I-495 and north of the Mass Pike northward. These amounts subject to change pending positioning of the mix/change line and the occurrence of the late-storm snow burst. Highs from 30 far NW to lower 40s Cape Cod. Wind E trending to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, but may be variable for a time over the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light rain/snow showers afternoon, a period of mix/snow possible at night. Low 27. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Mix/snow possible early. Low 29. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 40.

353 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Last year was a virtual vacation.

      We got blasted 2 years ago but the difference is that storms this season, though weighted in the 2nd half of winter and fairly regular, are not coming as fast and furious as they did in the 6-week barrage 2 winters ago (December 26-February 2). That was also during the colder part of winter with no melting between storms, so the snowcover kept mounting up and up and the snow piles kept getting larger and larger. This season we’re seeing most snow melt between storms. Big difference being so much later in the season. 🙂

  2. PLEASE NOTE that my snow amounts are a touch conservative, trying to account for a fair amount of sleet that may cut down snowfall amounts somewhat. Sleet is much closer to 1:1 ratio. We’ll see how this plays out as the storm unfolds.

  3. Thanks TK. A 10 on the UGH meter for the Tuesday morning commute. Winter Storm Warnings posted for a large chunk of SNE. Boston under an advisory. I am still thinking around 4 inches for Boston and keeping them at a level 1 for snowfall. Go into the interior and especially up in elevation level 2 snowfall.
    Interesting note from the NWS out of Upton, NY
    NOTING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER WITH WARM UP OF LOW
    LEVELS THAN 12Z ECMWF

    1. Even if the snow amounts are not “big”, it’s going to be significant and the timing for Tuesday morning is not good. The amount of snow measured in someone’s back yard may be a non-impact, but the couple to few inches coming down on the roads (and it will accumulate easily until plowed and treated) will be a significant impact.

      1. Could it also be that sleet/freezing rain could add to the impact on the commute? It seems the amount should not be the focus as much as timing and other conditions affecting driving???

        1. Yes there will be some impact from mix where it is occurring as well. I think crews will be on top of the roads so freezing rain should never be a big problem on pavements of main roads, but not so much the case on other surfaces that have little or no snow on them (because they were shoveled).

          1. Thank TK

            BTW – seeing a trend here. Last storm resulted in a canceled ultrasound…..this one may as well. Seems that my kids need to just stop scheduling ultrasounds and spring may arrive 😉

  5. From Boston to Providence alot of sleet and rain will mix in holding accumulation under 3 inches for Boston, it appears alot of mixing and even a changeover to rain even in Boston is now Likley

  7. Thanks TK !

    Relentless chill on the EURO out thru day 10. I keep hoping for a run that around day 10 will show a hint of any kind of pattern breakdown or even just 0C 850 mb temps and its not to be. Oh well, at some point, June ? 🙂 , the sun angle will moderate things. I hope. 🙁

    Have a good day all !

    1. For sure J.J.

      Euro is so cold, I don’t see how is doesn’t snow again after this. Spring is probably delayed by a month.

  9. Reading Brett Anderson’s blog on AccuWeather last week the maps show this below normal temperature regime will be here to start April. What a difference from March 2012 to March 2013.
    I wonder how Henry Marguisty is feeling after he declared winter over after the storm we had earlier this month.

    1. Margusity has been saying that for three weeks. And the last storm he said wasn’t a New England snowstorm beforehand. The bosses at Accuweather must really like him personally.

    2. He was not the only one to declare it over, and I still will never understand why anybody who has any knowledge of the climate here would even dare do that, even in a pattern like we had last year. The weather can turn on a dime.

  10. Charlie I think this is big storm and to say otherwise is downplaying its impact. We are at March 18 so a storm like this is a big deal. Timing is also bad for morning commute. Maybe not bad in your area but there is more than just North Attleboro.

    My call for Boston area is about 8-10 inches and more outside 128 and less as you travel south.

    2. Hadi I disagree with your call for Boston and think its way to high. I have not even seen those amounts on tv 8-10 for Boston. I may add I respectfully disagree and your a good forecaster. But remember this is not the same kind of storm like the last one. I think were looking at a frontend only accumulation of snow overnight and mix to probably straight rain from Boston all through the south shore and cape by the morning commute. Obviously north of Boston should do very well with some good snow. I may be completely wrong but I’m sticking to it. Boston 4inches or under.

  12. Report from the Fort
    Current temp: 66
    High temp: 81
    Skies: partly cloudy to cloudy; chance of rain
    Wind: 6-9 mph from the SE
    Visibility: 10 miles
    Sunset: 7:37 pm

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki, put me down as part of the Snow Camp. Does that mean I have to like it, ‘though? Although I don’t mind eating s’mores and snow w/maple syrup sounds good! 🙂

    I am looking forward now to tracking thunderstorms. Come on, Spring! 🙂

  14. Schools are in a very tough spot. Mcas testing this week, but on the long comp day, ALL schools must take this on the same day, 1 schools cancels the whole test is off. Kinda thinking many will be out due to snow? Thoughts?

    1. Agreed. Schools in the winter storm warning area with 6+” of snow will close for sure esp given it will be worst for the morning commute. Even communities a bit further south that could end up in a zone with an extended period of icing during the commute will close.

  15. You also see in the NWS wrote up they mentioned Boston is a tricky call and could come in with higher numbers.

    OS you out there?

    1. Could is the key word. But hey we agree to disagree and you may just nail another forecast. I’ll be working it all night so 4or 8 or more makes no difference to me.

  16. I guess it’s pretty major 🙂 if snow starts at midnight and continues lets say until 9 am in Boston that’s how we get to 8 inches.

    @ToddWBZ: Snow spreads in from the SW between 9 and midnight and will continue with some heavy periods through the Tue AM commute…disastrous.

  17. Maybe its just me but it seems like most of the storms this year are quite meteorologically interesting and complex, with lots of uncertainty and nowcasting required. How many 3 inch clippers have we seen this year vs 1″ to 12″ forecasts and vast model and meteorologist disagreements? Makes for interesting days!

  19. The cold air wins again! It will be more difficult to scour out than models predict. I was always concerned regarding this cold, dry airmass.
    2-4 inches south coast, cape, southshore before mix/rain
    3-6 inches for Boston south to SS before mix/rain
    4-8 just west, southwest and northwest of the city to 495 and then mixing
    8-12+ 495 north and west of ALL SNOW

  20. Hi-Just saw this in the forecast discussion from the NWS:

    WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND…COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH A VORTEX LINGERING
    OVER THE NORTHEAST. LOW PROBABILITY OF NUISANCE-TYPE DIURNAL SNOW
    SHOWERS GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MARCH SUN
    ANGLE. ANY SURFACE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AS THE
    CORE OF THIS VORTEX REMAINS CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL
    HAVE TO WATCH ANY POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGHS EXTENDING NW FROM ANY
    OCEAN CYCLONES BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND /NORLUN TROUGH/. THIS WOULD
    ENHANCE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.– End Changed Discussion —

  21. Need my weather family’s opinion…..we are scheduled to install a new ATM in our Arlington Branch tomorrow morning beginning at 6 am. The rigging company will be coming from Woburn (which obviously isn’t a far commute) and our contractor and bank employees will be traveling from the south shore. Should I try to have it re-scheduled?

    2. I wouldn’t unless the rigging company won’t work with the weather we are expected to have. Give all involved a heads up and plan accordingly.

    2. I think that simulation is pretty good, but may be underestimating the amount and duration of sleet/frz rain that will occur in some interior areas tomorrow AM.

    1. Even so, this is pretty Impressive.

      Any Mets still saying 1-3 or 2-4??

      Barry last night still had Boston in 4-8, but thought the city would come in
      at 4 or 5 inches. I Still think that is low.

  24. It was 15 at my house this morning! Pretty darn cold for March 18. It is definitely going to take awhile to scour this cold air out at the surface. I can see several hours of sleet/frz rain being plausible across the interior tomorrow AM after the initial changeover from snow.

  25. im just gonna post this out. i have a feeling even though we will have alot of snow . many schools might not close do to MCAS this week. billerica schools have mcas this week so they would try in all their power to keep schools open. even if it means making the busses not available and making the parents drive them instead. they did it before when there was mcas and i bet it will happen again.

    2. from what I read above, though, it won’t make sense to stay open. All it takes is one school to close and mcas is rescheduled…………or did I read it incorrectly??

      Either way – mcas is not worth risking someone’s life………of course I don’t think it’s worth anything so I may not be the right person to ask 🙂

  26. Hadi,

    I’m here. I have today off as a Holiday, so I was up late last night.
    Just looking around now.

    0Z Euro 850 mb charts zoomed in for our area:
    42 hours
    http://i.imgur.com/pXbLkeE.png
    45 hours
    http://i.imgur.com/aHovWIi.png
    48hours:
    http://i.imgur.com/GyLrHer.png

    There is about a 6 hour or so period where there could be Sleet and/or rain
    in Boston. Longer period of rain S&E. Something like 1PM to 7PM or Noon to 6
    Something along those time frames.

    This is EXTREMELY close for Boston. In fact, it may not change in boston or if it does it may be just a period of sleet with NO Rain.

    GAME ON!

    1. I’m definitely in favor of a colder solution as you know. The models underestimated the cold, dry airmass above us and it is deeply rooted down to the surface. It is very possible that Boston and just away from the coast could end up with more than forecasted. And if it doesn’t ever change over places like Westwood and Norwood will see as much as places like Worcester! It will be snowing 1-2 inches per hour before the changeoever and dynamic cooling will be in full force. It’s going to be awfully difficult to scour out the cold air especially at 2m.

  27. From the NWS:

    STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE
    GULF REGION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR
    SNOWFALL RATES IN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
    PART OF TUE MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES NORTH BUT THEN
    REMAINS POINTED TOWARD SOUTHERN NH AND POSSIBLY FAR NE MA THRU THE
    DAY TUE WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST THRU THE DAY
    AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT SOME WRAP
    AROUND. THINKING AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
    TERRAIN OF SW NH WHERE GREATER DURATION…DEEP COLD AIR AND UPLIFT
    ALL CONTRIBUTE.

    BOSTON IS VERY TRICKY WHERE THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
    ERODE SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE EAST WIND TO CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.
    NEVERTHELESS…CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE
    RELATIVELY COLD AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A RISK THAT BOSTON
    COULD END UP WITH MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

    EVEN WHERE A WINTER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT…THERE COULD BE A FEW
    HOURS OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

  28. RE-POST
    I’m re-posting something I put up on the other blog about 1AM this morning.
    I think it is very interesting. IF you didn’t see this, please have a look. Comments?

    Have a look at these 0Z UKMET panels:
    12Z Tuesday:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=036
    18Z Tuesday:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=042
    0Z:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=048

    Tell me that this last panel doesn’t SCREAM a back end snow blitz!!!!!!

    1. This gives Boston something in the order of 5 or 6 inches or so.

      Right now, I’m sticking with my 6-9 inches for Boston.

      We’ll see. Much in play with this system.

      😀

    2. Wrap around meaningful accumulating snow doesn’t happen to often in Boston. This set up would allow for wrap around snow but I think most of the meaningful accumulation comes before any changeover to mix/rain.

  30. Hmmm
    Looking over all of the models, the total qpf is down from previous runs.
    Much divergence on where the snow/sleet/rain line sets up.
    Also, I noted that the 850mb freezing line is oriented more West to East
    rather than SW to NE. Interesting.

    1. That is interesting since the winds will be easterly. However, the LLJ will be coming up from the south which is likely why the 850mb 0C line is oriented horizontally. If that wind ever turned more northeasterly we’re in for it.

    1. Nice Job Matt. Probably not too far off.
      I still think Boston comes in a bit higher than you depict, but
      we shall see.

  33. Snowfall forecasts for Boston so far:

    Ch. 4 = 4-8″
    Ch. 5 = 2-4″/3-6″ (dependent on city neighborhood)
    Ch. 7 = 2-4″
    Ch. 25 = 3-6″
    NWS = 4-6″

    1. I would say those look good for the most part. I’m hearing mostly 3-6 for the city. Most also not mentioning any back snow around Boston south anyways. I think for the most part this storm is not a big deal but bad timing for the am.

      1. It is a big deal John for march 18th!! Also 4-8 inches is a big storm. Not every storm is 15-20 inches.

          1. Bad timing, true.

            But 4-8 inches of heavy duty, sleet laden snow,
            is a big deal. You’ll see while you are removing it.
            😀

      2. This morning commute could be just as bad as the commute during the blizzard. Snowfall rates will be 1-2 inches per hour. And since ice accretion could also be an issue on top of what snow we get, this is a big deal.

  34. I am happy with my numbers as well. I have the day off too OS my son’s school is closed so we are home together.

    1. Enjoy. We’ll compare note from time to time during the day, most expecially after the 12Z Euro is out. 😀

      1. I think it’ll be back. Euro loves to tease. But unlike the girl in high school who teases and then disappears, the Euro model’s eye candy depictions – say, Olga Kurylenko esque, translated meteorologically – tend to reappear at a later date. I’m going to call it the Good Friday finale storm. I’m `feeling’ a major storm Easter weekend to cap off a winter filled with surprises.

    1. Hence, very heavy snow is likely and dynamic cooling mechanisms will be in place making it difficult for warmer air to reach the surface!

  37. Way too early to project snow totals for March for Boston, but we could approach 20 inches by Friday this week (I’m looking for 4-5 inches in Boston with this event and a few more inches possible Thursday night). Then, I’m thinking that we’re getting at least another 5-10 inches next week. I really think a pattern has set up which is very conducive to snow, in both small and large amounts. Does not really matter that it’s March (other than the difficulty of daytime accumulating). Is March of 1993 (38 inches?) out of the question? Kind of, but never say never.

      1. Based on Boston’s snow history, it is unlikely much snow for April. It seems with March/April one month or the other is snowy…not both.

        Unlike let’s say January/February you don’t get two desserts so to speak. 😉

        1. May be anomalous this time around. The atmosphere doesn’t change patterns just because the calendar flips. 🙂

        3. It appears on that updated WBZ map the 2-4 inch line has creeped slightly north into Boston. Not looking as good now OS. 🙁

  39. Hello been working since early this am, tommorrow off then back to work Wed, keep the snow away from southeastern mass,

  45. Thank god I don’t live north of Boston phew, all that matters is to keep it north, and that’s what’s happening it appears, here in north attleboro wrentham area I don’t expect more than 2 maybe 3 inches and we all know how fast that will be gone, again phew!!

  47. Good explanation from Matt Noyes on the “wet bulb.”
    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/884994_571905106162377_6705531_o.jpg
    “With temperatures rising into the 30s and now into mid-March, the question of how it will be cold enough to snow in so many areas is a good one. The answer comes in how dry the air is – dew point temperatures are in the single digits, representing dry air that cools effectively when moisture is added. Evidence to this point is seen in this map of wet bulb temperature – how cool the air would be if saturated right now. Notice the 0 line – 32 degrees Fahrenheit – is well south of New England. Cold air is well established.”

  48. Hadi I don’t think it will be as bad as your thinking, alot more rain and sleet is in my forecast for Boston and Provudence and points in between, anyone north and west will get a mess, I really believe we r gonna be fine in Boston south and mainly rain south of Plymouth 🙂

    1. I agree. There is no way boston will get 8-10 in any of its areas. Like I said I think this storm is not a big deal and is being over played. I’ll be the first to say I was wrong if thats the case. 5inches is tops for the city. Raining in the city by 9am and that I think is to late. I even think 5 is high for the city.

      2. Maybe not Logan but others parts of the city very well might. Charlie south is not the only area that exists in NE :). There are parts to the region.

    2. Charlie, u may be right as far as rain boston southward eventually, but the bigger issue with this storm is the timing, thats why it could be a big deal. For the morning commute, everyone will be snowing, or at least some form of frozen precip which will make driving treacherous.

      2. I think the road crews will have a good handle on it. You want to be on top of it before the am ride. Once trafic comes it gets tougher. But higher amounts staying north.

        1. Intensity of precip makes all the difference john. You could blast the road with flame throwers for all i care, but if its snowing 1-2″/hr, its not gonna matter. It will accumulate.

  49. For crying out loud there have been companies out here for the past 2-3 weeks, my comp could never be like that, I think those comp put product down on some 50+ lawns, not my comp, we really start Wed,

  50. I do believe south of Boston will receive a heavy burst of snow that could accumulate fast 1-3 inches but then sleet and eventually rain by mid morning but timing is key

        1. Actually everyone gets in on the heavy snow action Charlie right down to the south coast of MA/RI including the Cape. It will be snowing at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour before the changeover even down there.

  51. love the track of the NAM. It’s what I’ve been thinking on this all along. We’ll see.

    (we’re gonna have to watch that thing at the end of the week – geez!)

  52. John don’t just dismiss this, it’s like your making out to be nothing and that’s irresponsible IMHO.

    1. Not at all. North of city the biggest brunt. Boston will see some snow no doubt, just not seeing real high numbers.

  53. And here is how you might end up with my numbers.

    @BarryWBZ: The snow line could collapse back toward Boston later tomorrow afternoon with the second burst of heavier precip.

  56. The latest nam continues to say most of the snow is west of Boston, every single different run I’ve seen has consistently showed a change to rain not before a couple inches falls here, there will be rain eventually here, I feel confident in that and I’m also fairly confident that after about 2-4 hrs of snow here between midnight and 4am a change to sleet happens and then rain after 6 or 7 am, this is for the areas south of Boston, I’ll be back later to evauate the models and blog, thanks guys

  57. It was 6 degrees this morning at my house in nh. I could not believe it. I live in a lower elevation so that added to it. That is a mid winter type of low temp for where I live.

  58. Hadi there’s not much I can do, applying these at this time is in no way taking any of the nutrients from the lime away, the worst is working in chilly weather, it’s worse for me and the crew than anything, actually a light 2-4 inch snowfall is actually beneficial and it quickly melting is perfect, it’s a poor mans fertilizer 🙂 gotta go, I got every single other comp’s that r way ahead of me, I can’t hold any longer

  59. Hey Vicki I’m not kidding in the least haha they are as we speak street sweeping the main streets in north attleboro, again unbelievable

    1. And then they say they don’t have money to properly plow the roads. You really can’t make this stuff up.

  62. Don’t have time to do one of my long explanations.

    0-1″ Cape Cod
    2-4″ Boston – Providence Snow and Sleet Accumulations
    3-6″ Western Parts of Boston Proper out to 495 / Mass Pike, CT River Valley, Hartford Snow and Sleet Accumulations
    6-9″ 495 North of Mass Pike and throughout Worcester County Snow and Sleet.
    10″ Plus amounts Northern Worcester County and Berkshires Mostly All Snow

    Would not worry too much about it getting too warm for prolonged all rain in inland areas. What I would be more concerned with for limiting accumulations: dry cold air at onset, sleet mixing which is going to reduce your ratios to 2:1 or worse, if dry air at mid levels works in around 5am, that could cause what is modeled as heavy snow to become frozen drizzle due to the light intensity. Finally rapid mid-level and low-level drying wiping out the potential for any significant back-end snow.

  63. 12Z UKMET, 850mb Charts, Zoomed in version:

    18 hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=018
    24 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=018&fixhh=1&hh=024
    30 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=030
    36 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=036

    This model suggests that Boston does not go over to sleet/rain or if it does, only
    briefly so.

    1. 12Z Ukmet Prcip:
      18 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=018
      24 hours;
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=018&fixhh=1&hh=024
      30 Hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=030
      36 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=036

    1. The city of Boston itself isnt in that 4-8″ area, its just outside it in the 2-4″ range.

    1. Me too – But I would not be one bit surprised if things stayed cooler for most of the duration. How quickly we forget what happened just a few weeks ago.

  66. 2-4 is about right and 1-3 south of city, of course north and west of Boston could see 6+ but Boston itself will get 3-4 inches but an inch of that could be sleet, providence slightly less but also sleet problems, I believe if it sleets long enough that’s what could accumulate on roads more than snow itself, like ace master said the timing is everything, if it doesn’t start till 4 or 5am instead of 1 or 2 am it could make all the difference

  67. This is the weather nightmare that keeps on giving ……

    Just my opinion, but the differences above in exactly how much Boston or anyone else gets seems a bit irrelevant.

    I think the relevance to most of the public is that the 5-9 am commute is going to be severely impacted, while the 3-7 pm commute should be better. Maybe not great, but better.

      1. I believe that the morning commute, all the way to the Cape Cod Bridges is going to be highly impacted.

        I do agree, that the afternoon commute will be better, particularly inside Rt 128. 495, pts north and west may still not have clear pavement, even then.

  68. This looks like a slop storm Boston or just south of Boston southward, I think it’s raining moderately after 10 or 11am

  70. The dewpoints are amazingly low and the source of the dry air is retreating, however, its closest to eastern New England in its retreat. So, on the one hand, while that argues for some of the initial precip to be tempered as it encounters the dry air, it also argues that the column may be a little cooler and stay cooler a bit longer than being modeled.

    Count me in as one who thinks there’s a decent front end dump in eastern Mass and that there’ll even be a few measureable inches, as far south as the western end of Cape Cod. I hope we are all wrong. 🙂

  71. What storm threats is the EURO showing for the next 10 days? I have an important trip and I just to stay on top of it.

    Thanks in advance!

  72. 12Z Euro is COLDER!!
    850mb temps at Boston NEVER go above freezing during the event.
    I’ll post some maps shortly.

    However, total qpf seems off some. Hints at some back end snows as well.

    More later.
    😀

      1. The colder solution will verify and I bet even the EURO is downplaying the cold throughout the column. Could mean heavier snow accumulations than anticipated.

        1. I agree. I think 2-4 inches for Boston is WAY underdone.
          We shall see. Going to be interesting, that’s for sure! 😀

      2. So, it looks to snow from hour 15 to hour 33 or so.
        That’s 15+ hours, then sleet, then some more snow.

        Hour 15 would be 10PM, but with DST, it would be 11PM?
        Let’s see. 0z is 7PM when not DST. With DST we moved it ahead an hour, so 0Z would be 8PM our time. Yes, I think that’s it.

        So getting back to the event. 15+ hours of snow at what,
        1/2 inch per hour average. That should end up 7 or 8 inches
        in Boston. OR more.

        Anyone have the total qpf figures for this run???? Thanks

        1. Yes, if the EC verified, a good half a foot or more in Boston with more to the north and west before a changeover.

          1. This is looking like a WHITE event from Boston North and West. A good dumping of snow, with
            a sugar coating of sleet on top for good measure.
            It may NOT rain in Boston at all. 😀

    1. I think OS is talking about the city itself but would expect a quicker transition to sleet and freezing rain down there.

      1. Will need to watch for development off the midatlantic coast tonight. It is this surface development and track that will determine r/s lines. If this storm develops and/or tracks even 15 miles further east, we’re in for it including the coast! This is the type of storm that concerns me. Watch for surprises like a rain/snow line that never makes it to Boston.

    1. Thanks Hadi. That is WAY down. CMC is double that. I wonder
      what’s up?

      Agree, boston is mostly snow with some sleet on top towards the end. 😀

      1. I wonder if the EC develops the secondary low too late or not deep enough to lock us in the deep cold convection resulting in lower QPF??? How low in mbs is this secondary low supposed to get and when?

  76. I think there r going to be great differences in area over a relatively short distance, I can totally see how Worcester gets 10 inches and Plymouth gets an inch and be washed away and have nothing on ground by pm commute and just wet roads, gonna be alot of different reports tommorrow

    1. Even the southcoast sees a good 2-4 inches before they go over to rain on the front end 😉

  77. Isallobaric flow developing around rapidly deepening low center as it starts to pull away tomorrow late afternoon and/or early evening will likely send any rain/snow line collapsing back toward the coast. Barry has mentioned this and I completely agree with him.

    1. TK, Thanks.

      A couple of things:

      1. Can you give us your thoughts on WHY 12Z Euro QPF is down so much?
      2. Can you elaborate some more on “Isallobaric flow” ?
      OR would you mind if I post something or post a link?
      I have found some really technical info this, that includes differential
      equations. Really tough to follow. I have found some other stuff as well.

      Many thanks

    2. The question is, how much precipitation will be left when the change over occurs in your opinion? It’s not often you see a snow to rain and then back to a meaningful snow situation.

    1. That’s fine just keep it away from Plymouth to middleboro 🙂 I’m watching like a hawk, 🙂 thanks tk

    2. That a boy TK. I see cold air hanging on tougher than models are predicting. 4-8 inches still may be a bit conservative but I’m sticking with my numbers for now.

  79. Looking at the NWS Taunton point/click forecast for Holden area (my area of interest), NWS has pushed up the total accumulations this afternoon, by adding an additional 1-3″ to fall Tuesday night! Total accumulations forecasted are for this area are now: 4-8″ tonight, 3-7″ Tuesday, and 1-3″ Tuesday night, for a grand total of 8-18″!!!!

    Not looking forward to this…

  80. I just checked the maps. 4 and 7 have not changed from noon but I went to the end of that ridiculous ch 5 map and they do in fact have 8.1 right over Boston. Also have 5.0 in Marshfield. 14.8 worcester. 9.7 hartford and 6.5 providence – those are a few not all

    Someone needs to tell them to get rid of their map system.

      1. All that is Vicki is a futurecast run of one of the models, hence the tenths, and the time you saw was just the end time of the model run loaded into the futurecast program, not the end time of the storm.

        I am NOT a big fan of the TV guys running those models because all it does is confuse people.

        I’ve seen as many as 4 “snow maps” in one weathercast: Euro, NAM, GFS, and the station’s own forecast. That’s 3 too many maps in my opinion.

        1. I knew it was future cast but it’s ridiculous that they carry it out to the point of….I can’t think of a nice work 😉 I absolutely agree with you – it’s just plain nuts.

          However, they do have 8.1 right on top of Boston which puts them much higher than 4 and 7 were earlier – about to watch 7

          Thanks TK

  81. Once again there is misinformation out there on this storm.
    It just seems that practically every storm this season has been
    extremely difficult to forecast.

    I actually think that the Euro has Underdone qpf. Qpf will be 1 inch plus for sure.

    The mets will drive themselves Nuts tonight! 😀

    I’m sticking with my original 6-9 inches for Boston. 😀

    1. Perhaps the EURO is anticipating what Logan will be reporting for melted precip. Well, if that were the case, it would be predicting like .25 or something.

    2. Experimental FIM Model Fields
      Model: 15km FIM Area: CONUS Date: 18 Mar 2013 – 12Z
      total qpf:

      Experimental FIM Model Fields
      Model: 15km FIM Area: CONUS Date: 18 Mar 2013 – 12Z

      UP from 0Z run. This brings 1-2 inches across the Boston area. 😀

        1. Indeed. The only difference in Boston anyway, would
          be a reduction in the total accumulation due to a period
          of sleet, but just as Wintry none-the-less. 😀

          1. That would be for the city but inland locations like Westwood could be in for it. I think along 128 and just west is in the wild card and could receive as a little as a few inches before the change over OR many inches with no change over;)

  85. Hey TK,
    Do you have the technology on this blog to make your own
    snow maps like Matt does? That would be cool.
    😀

    1. I wonder if someone could do it for him. That way he doesn’t have extra work. I think Matt uses google maps functions. It’d have to be a separate link

  86. All this and the next low, on Thursday the 28th, I think, in the southern Mississippi Valley on the 12z EURO.

    Geez, this is so frustrating.

    I apologize for all the times I said global warming, high CO2 levels in the atmosphere, that winter was over and anything else during warmer times. Mea culpa.

    Hopefully, the last two sentences will begin to reverse this weather curse.

      1. Joshua I remember a couple of Junes – one in 2011 – where it didn’t warm up much at all. A second would have been 1982

    1. Always a possibility…… However, I don’t think it’s a case of just shifting what is currently seen on the radar eastward. There will probably be a lot of precip development SW of New England later this evening towards midnight, that will negate some of that dry slot btwn the initial primary low and the yet to develop secondary near the south coast.

        1. Dry slot will not be a factor as a secondary storm takes shape along the mid atlantic coast. The real storm hasn’t even formed yet.

    2. And if that were the case coastal, that would be like a cold front coming through with an hour or two of precip before it shut off. That’s not going to happen once the secondary storm cooks off our coast line. Precip will quickly fill in!

    3. That would be true if we were not having redevelopment. Most of the precip. we are going to see around here hasn’t even formed yet.

    1. 1 inch in NYC before a quick changeover

      5 inches in Boston before a change to frozen mixed precip

    2. This a mix of 4 models, Boston 3-4 inches with an inch of it in sleet followed by rain late Tue am, Providence 2-3 inches with an inch of it in sleet followed by rain mid morning Tue am, Worcester 8-10 inches all snow with a little sleet mixing in late Tue am, Hartford 5-7 inches mixing late Tue am, I don’t think there will be much backlash here but west and north where there will be more lift, west of 495 there could be an additional inch or 2, will see if it verifys 🙂

      1. Boston: 5 inches +

        Worcester: 10 inches +

        PVD: 4 inches +

        Westwood (my home): 7 inches +

        If no change over, then there will be a widespread 10+ that could approach 128.

    1. fascinating. There are some pretty heavy duty echos simulated there.
      IF all snow, a DUMP!!! If the big echos later are Sleet. YIKES, what a mess.
      This is going to be a very impactful storm to say the least.

  94. Pete has a morning break (5am-8am) and then a secondary system making the afternoon commute somewhat messy as well. He thought majority of precip over by 10:00 – although that confuses me as to why pm commute would be messy

    Sue, did you reschedule?

    1. Nope…we are going forward with the install. However, I will most likely be providing support from the comfort of my desk in Plymouth. 🙂

      1. We had a meeting scheduled at a client bank tomorrow also and will be calling in rather than attending. Well I always call in but associate attends. And I totally misheard / misread Pete – he said messy morning commute NOT afternoon

    1. Even this shows a good 6 inch slug for Boston. 4 inches all the way down
      to the canal. 😀

  96. This a mix of 4 models, Boston 3-4 inches with an inch of it in sleet followed by rain late Tue am, Providence 2-3 inches with an inch of it in sleet followed by rain mid morning Tue am, Worcester 8-10 inches all snow with a little sleet mixing in late Tue am, Hartford 5-7 inches mixing late Tue am, I don’t think there will be much backlash here but west and north where there will be more lift, west of 495 there could be an additional inch or 2, will see if it verifys arod os and hadi what’s your forecast?

    1. I think you are a little low with your totals:

      I’m sticking with 6-9 for Boston, 8-12 for Worcester,
      3-6 for Providence and 4-8 for Hartford.

    1. This would be the end snow burst that some of us have been discussing for a few days. Still a very valid possibility.

  100. The earlier its starts the worse it will be, if your a snowlover the sooner the better, snow haters your rooting for it to start well after midnight

  101. MASSACHUSETTS OBSERVATIONS for Mon Mar 18 at 04:00 PM EDT
    T TD RH WIND GUST ALSTG SLP VIS CLOUDS WX PR6 PR24 SC
    Station F F % deg kts kts in Hg mb mi 100ftCOV in in in
    BEDFORD 37 2 22 0 at 0 30.31 1028.0 10 150 OVC …KBED
    BEVERLY 32 15 49 140 at 7 30.34 1027.1 10 250 BKN …KBVY
    BOSTON 32 19 58 110 at 12 30.35 1027.7 10 200 OVC …KBOS
    CHATHAM 32 17 54 0 at 6 30.38 1028.8 10 CLR …KCQX
    CHICOPEE 38 1 20 0 at 0 30.28 1026.1 10 150 FEW …KCEF
    FITCHBURG 37 -4 17 140 at 8 30.31 1026.9 10 CLR …KFIT
    HARLOW FLD MARS 34 19 55 110 at 7 30.37 10 CLR .KGHG
    HYANNIS 34 16 47 150 at 7 30.35 1027.8 10 CLR …KHYA
    LAWRENCE 39 2 21 0 at 0 30.33 1027.3 10 CLR …KLWM
    MARTHAS VINEYA 34 19 54 150 at 7 30.35 1027.7 10 CLR KMVY
    NANTUCKET 35 18 49 110 at 8 30.36 1028.1 10 CLR …KACK
    NEW BEDFORD 35 17 47 170 at 7 30.34 1027.5 10 CLR .KEWB
    NORTH ADAMS 37 -3 18 100 at 6 30.23 1024.6 10 CLR KAQW
    NORWOOD 38 7 27 0 at 0 30.32 1026.9 10 CLR …KOWD
    ORANGE 36 -3 18 200 at 4 30.28 1026.2 10 CLR …KORE
    OTIS ANGB 32 14 47 140 at 7 30.36 10 CLR …KFMH
    PITTSFIELD 34 2 25 150 at 7 30.18 1023.8 10 CLR …KPSF
    PLYMOUTH 36 16 44 90 at 7 30.34 1027.5 10 CLR …KPYM
    TAUNTON 38 14 37 160 at 7 30.33 1027.1 10 CLR …KTAN
    WESTFIELD 37 1 21 210 at 4 30.28 1026.2 10 CLR …KBAF
    WORCESTER 33 -1 23 0 at 5 30.27 1026.5 10 CLR …KORH

  102. Look at the dew points above. That is some seriously dry air for Mid-March in SNE. This is a completely anomalous air mass for this time of year.

    1. Noted, and made mention of this coming in before the airmass arrived. Observations show it clearly.

    3. Will that help or hurt us in snow camp? I know we will get some evaporative cooling as the column moistens, but does that in essence delay the start of the snow actually falling?

      2. It may delay the onset a bit but once the column moistens it will eventually start snowing. Likely will start in Boston around 1 a.m. However, this very dry cold airmass will be very difficult to dislodge making it more likely that some locations never change over thereby enhancing snowfall totals more than currently forecasted. Some of the models are starting to recognize this. The latest EC and NAM are a bit colder than its previous runs and hence even Boston has moved into a Winter Storm Warning as a result.

  104. I see Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in Boston. I wonder if these will extend down into northern Bristol county too. Although, the alert for WWA changed from 2-4” to 3-6”.

  105. I watched PB on 7 a bit ago and he is confident that it will be 2″ or less all on the south shore, cape and SE Mass, 2-4 in Boston and more north and west. He said it will start to turn to mix/rain about 5 am to the south. He claimed that this is not a tricky storm and he is quite sure this is how it will play out.

    2. Brimming with confidence as per usual. 😀

      Sorry, he’s dead wrong this time!! Sorry Vicki.

      1. First and foremost how is he dead wrong when the storm isn’t here. Second if he’s wrong BZ is as well since they have identical maps.

    3. Gotta love Pete’s confidence. I’ll give him that but that’s all I’ll give him. When is he going to learn as to not misinform the public and downplay a late season impactful winter storm?

    1. Generally agreeing here. Still going to keep the 4-8 range from 95 to Boston for now. Still concerned about some sleet if it warms enough aloft.

      1. A period of sleet is my only concern. Don’t think it rains in
        Boston. Of course it could, but right now I don’t think so.

        Btw, what is the ratio for sleet. JMA hinted 2:1 or worse.
        There is air between pellets, but it doesn’t accumulate well.
        It can’t be 1:1 because of the air pockets. 2:1 might be overdoing
        it. 1.5:1 ? Just curious.

        1. Sleet is 2:1 or less, often nearly 1:1.

          If this colder solution comes to be, then sleet may only mix in around Boston, and any true mix/change will only take place during the lighter precip between the initial snow burst and the final snow burst, which I am becoming more confident will happen.

          Barry in my opinion is going to be quite accurate in his assessment of bringing any mix line back SE and snow/cold back into any areas that lost it. Excellent forecast.

          1. Thanks TK.
            I think that in addition to yourself, Barry has handled this one with aplomb.
            😀

    2. We generally agree Hadi:

      Boston: 5 inches +

      Worcester: 10 inches +

      PVD: 4 inches +

      Westwood (my home): 7 inches +

      If no change over, then there will be a widespread 10+ that could approach 128.

  108. Per a post from someone on American Weather, the RPM model is virtually all snow in Boston. Accumulations are “12-16 around ORH esp higher elevs… About 8 at BOS. 10-12 for the NW suburbs, around 128 to MQE, 8 to around Brockton, 4-5 around TAN, 2-4 in PYM, 6-8 PVD, around 8 in Tolland, Typical 8-10 inch screwzone btwn Ashland and Woodstock NH, 16-20 in the usual upslope spots from NO. Conway to SE of Berlin NH”

  109. 2 colleagues of mine and very good forecasters are lining up very close to the RPM model.

  110. I was just about post some current dewpoint obervations but JMA beat me to it. I have never seen dewpoint readings like these in late March. The cold air is really going to hold with this storm, however I am more concerned about the quantity of precip. Both NAM and Euro have backed off on the front end slug of snow and the radar right now is frankly not that impressive and filled in even less than what the models are saying should be there. So while we may see more in the way of frozen precip due to colder temps, not sure if it is prudent to up snow totals given the lower QPF projections. At least here in CT. Could be a different story in Boston IF some backlash/comma head snows develop.

    1. I think the qpf will be there when all is said and done. 😀

      Btw, I have seen it COLDER than this even later in the month.
      It’s rare, but it happens.

    2. Don’t be fooled. Secondary development is underway now. What you see on radar will look quite different in 6-8 hours. Give it time. It will fill in.

  111. There is dry slot it appears on the radar with snow in NYC and and nothing until you get into eastern PA.

    1. I wouldn’t go calling that a dry slot. 😀
      It hasn’t even gotten its act together yet. 😀

    2. Not sure where you see a dry slot. The secondary storm (the main player) is just beginning to form. Any apparent dry slot will quickly fill as we get deeper into the evening. As I told OS a few days ago when he thought this storm was cooked, “Patience is a Virtue.”

    1. I don’t have the actual map – was just relaying the results that others had posted on another forum.

  113. PB is calling for no such storm, geez either he’s gonna get fired this time or recover from last storm

        1. Vicky. This is what Sue just reported regarding what PB just said:

          “I watched PB on 7 a bit ago and he is confident that it will be 2″ or less all on the south shore, cape and SE Mass, 2-4 in Boston and more north and west. He said it will start to turn to mix/rain about 5 am to the south. He claimed that this is not a tricky storm and he is quite sure this is how it will play out.”

            1. PB has 2-4 in Boston. Respectfully, I know Pete can do no wrong in your eyes but based upon what Sue said, he is greatly underestimating the impact of this late season winter storm which in essence is misinforming the public. He pulls this all the time and he will be wrong again. I’m with OS.

                2. Correct OS was wrong time before. Oddly everyone can be wrong. It isn’t the being wrong that bothers me. It’s doing exactly what we left BZ for – or at least what I left for

                2. This is all just a miscommunication issue. 🙂 I think ARod thought you were referring to Boston, when in fact you are referring to the south shore. 🙂 Those are the dofferences between those two maps.

                3. Vicki. People on BZ were downright rude. Don’t ever compare me or anyone on this board to that of the BZ blog. I’m siting my opinion and that doesn’t make me a bad person. People on BZ were trolling and looking for trouble. It was nasty. How quickly we forget.

              4. And one last comment. In my eyes they all can do no wrong and I’m tired of the criticism. It’s why I left BZ. And if it isn’t clear I’m tired of it ……..it darn well should be. As I said. If you have a problem talk to the met but not about him

                1. Vicki relax. He is not bashing Pete. I know you like him but he is just not a fan favorite. All the mets make mistakes and none are perfect.

                2. Vicki. I’m entitled to my opinion just like you’re entitled to yours. Please don’t let a person’s opinion of a MET tha you enjoy offend you. That would be a bit silly. I’m done with this conversation. My opinion won’t change and I’m free to communicate that. That doesn’t make me a bad person. In fact, I think I’ve taken my time to help those in medical need on this board. So let’s stop with all of this 😀

                3. I didnt say anyone was bashing Pete John. Every met is still being criticized on here. A minute ago pete was gojng to be fired. Id react exactly the same – and have – if anyone said that about any met. What neither your or arod get is I find met criticism in general distasteful. If that’s your style then I need to think hard about being part of it. As I said I don’t want to be part of BZ for exactly that reason

                4. All I have to say Vicki is WOW! You take this on a whole other level-personal-just because we form opinions. Such a shame. I’m done.

  115. Why have the models trended lower, problems from a dry slot, time will tell, like hadi said awesome and fun stuff

    2. Now Charlie, stop trying to wish the snow away. First it was too warm and now it’s the dry slots??

      😉

          1. I’m not saying its not going to snow, I don’t think Boston gets 8inches. I’m at the point shreedhar where I’ve worked enough storms this winter and defently ready for winter to move out. It takes a lot of work to get the hospital in top shape. We are known to do a remarkable job on any of the properties, to do that It’s hard non stop work. We will have absolutely no snow on walkways, garden, main entrance, parking spaces etc wheher areas wi not be as clean. We take lot of pride with our crew. But it just gets old. At this time of year I’m just done with it. I also don’t do good with all nighters, LOL.

            1. I’m sure you do a great job, John.

              Is this your main source of income? Or do you do something else for work as well?

            2. Don’t blame you one bit John.
              Please understand that we are just calling
              at as we see it. IF that means we think
              there will be snow, so be it.

              Btw, You will get your 8 inches of snow
              In the Longwood Medical area. 😀

  116. Wow! This is moving in FAST!!
    How much of this is making it to the ground, falling through this extremely dry air?
    I’ll answer that in a moment:

    http://www.intellicast.com/national/radar/current.aspx?region=hfd&animate=true

    This Nexrad NYC radar shot shows it:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Typically, the Nexrad is good at depictings echos reaching the ground, but in this
    dry air, not even sure these are making it to the ground???

      1. They are calling for 6-8 inches in Boston.

        But get this: Approx .5 to .75 Inch of rain on top of the SNOW.

        Now this is where I disagree.

        That .5 to .75 is going to be mostly snow, perhaps with some
        mix of sleet for an additional 2-4 or 3-6 inches on top of the already forecasted 6-8 inches, depending upon how much sleet and the actual ratio. 😀 😀

        Just the way I see it.

  118. Blog is updated.

    Barry had the right idea on this. Harvey does now.

    Going to have dinner with Mom & Dad (homemade chicken soup and Italian bread). I’ll be checking in soon!

  119. According to the simulated radar reflectivity on the 21Z RAP model, the precip
    will be in the Boston area within 2 hours. 😀 Now that would be an early arrival!!!!!!

  120. The more I look at these models the more sleet I see, there could be some significant sleet accumulations in places

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