We’re Chillin’

436 Comments

1:56AM

The chilly March pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. High pressure will often be in a position ridged from central Canada southward through the eastern US, supply plenty of cold air from the snow-covered regions in Canada and the Arctic. In addition, a storm track south of the region will continue to bring some snow threats, though it remains to be seen how many will materialize during the coming week or so. The first of these develops today and lingers through early Friday in the form of an inverted trough reaching back from a developing ocean storm. It looks like most of the snow will fall over far southeastern Massachusetts with mostly insignificant amounts up as far north as Boston. The next threat will be from a large storm moving east northeastward to the south of New England late Sunday through Monday. It still looks like this system will be too far south to have direct impact, but needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds increase. Snow showers develop eastern MA during the afternoon. Highs middle 30s to around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of snow showers, favoring coastal areas especially southeastern MA. Snow accumulation up to a coating along the I-95 belt to 1-3 inches over Cape Cod – localized 4 inch amounts are possible. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start southeastern areas otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 44.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

436 thoughts on “We’re Chillin’”

  3. Thanks TK.
    I am going to miss out on the accumulating snow tonight with just some snow showers here. Level 1 snow event with the areas that see the accumulating snow tonight ( 4 inches or less) Still watching early next week.
    NCAA tournament in full swing starting today. I have Louisville, Indiana, Kansas, and Ohio St. as my final four teams with Louisville beating Indiana in the Championship.
    Who are your final four picks and national champion???

      1. I think Vicki and I decided to play on the same team together. Isn’t that right Vicki? 😀

  6. Interesting to see how the Norlun develops this afternoon and evening, the 06z nam certainly upped the amount of precip over the 00z run…see if it holds into the 12z run….next weeks storm seems awful suspicious to me. This thing has us right in it’s target and then hits a brick wall around Virginia and heads due east. We’ve seen models project similar paths this winter only to have them set their sights on us in the end. I’m not sure the block is as strong as models are seeing and as Hadi has alluded to the NOA should be relaxing i.e. the block weakening during that same time period. As much as I want it to be 70 and sunny right now, I find myself still enjoying the late season snow.

      1. If that could be arranged with the elimination of any coastal damage I’ll be cheering it on also.

    1. I know, let’s focus on today not next week. What’s your call for Boston and western Plymouth county.

    2. Why is that Hadi?? WE have plans to go to the south shore on Sunday and Monday so I’m quite interested.

  11. Coastal, to your post on the previous blog, no flurries or light snow, but as I look west, south and north, I can see that ribbon of thin (cumulus/stratus ?) and that look of its snowing from the clouds. Kind of nice with the sunrise reflecting off of it.

    Well, looks like Marshfield to Cape Cod Bridges could be the spot tonight. Probably have some interesting obs later. I waved my white flag on winter about 2 weeks ago. 🙂

    1. Tom, i see that cloud deck as well here in Walpole off to the south and west. The sun reflecting makes the clouds look very dark, almost like an early morning line of thunderstorms. Very light flurries too which surprised me. Sure feels like snow this morning.

      1. And actually, as I say that, theres already a streamer of snow pivoting in from NYC area and coastal CT and RI

    2. Tom not sure if you will see this but will post it again when you are home from school. Pete asked who his old roommate is and I told him I’d post his email address (it’s on the WHDH website but easier for me to post than you to have to look) so you could stop in and say hi. If you put “From Tom” in the subject he’ll see it since I believe he gets a lot of emails. PBouchard@whdh.com

  12. Thanks TK and Pete says he remembers to read the blog when I reference it in an email. I’ll email him more often 😉 (I think I just heard him groan) Lots of talent here.

  14. Good morning everyone! Still calling for 1-3 inches Boston south with 3-6 inches from plymouth south! Models seem to be finally trending that way.

      1. It will be a pretty sharp cut off to the snow, but you “may” make it into it. 😀

        We’ll have to see how it develops tonight.

      1. It very well could be. I’m being very cautious since these troughs have huge bust potential. As I said yesterday. Boston south will very close to advisory level snows while parts of the Cape may reach warning criteria snowfall. Will see be interested to seeing how it unfolds.

        To answer your question Vicki–perhaps an inch or so.

        1. Understand the caution.

          I’m not making a call just yet.

          But, I am getting very suspicious of something
          serious developing.

          I was thinking last night of a possible analog.

          It was during the lates 60s, but not 1969. Year could have been 1970, but I “think” it was 1968. IT was March 20th as I recall. There was a storm far out to sea. The forecast was for a miss. Around 3 or 4 PM it started snowing. Snowed all night. I was living in Millis at the time. Millis ended up with 9 inches, I think Boston had something like 4-6 inches and the jackpot was Smithfield, RI with 18 inches. The snow really built up, Boston Southwestward.

          Next Day Don Kent did his post-Storm analysis.
          He said that even though the storm was far out to sea,
          there was a bundle of upper air energy that caused the
          snow in our area. Sure Smells like a Norlun. Of course
          back then, the term wasn’t even coined yet. 😀 😀

          1. It wasn’t on Easter day was it OS? I remember one back in what I think was the 60s (but could have been 70s) when we were not expecting much of anything and got a whole lot more than was thought

            1. Vicki, No it wasn’t.
              But I DO remember the Easter one.
              I believe that was a March 29 Easter.

              1. Out of curiosity only do you remember the year? The more I thought about it, the more I thought early 70s but not sure

  15. GFS is garbage with mesocale features. Short range high res are so superior.

    My call 2-4 for Boston at this point and 4+ towards south coast and cape.

      1. John. It’s a long duration event. It will be slow, steady and episodic in nature unless you get underneath one of the mesoscale bands that doesn’t move. First flakes are already beginning to fly in some places but the majority of it begins this afternoon and more so overnight tonight. I hope that answers your question but this forecast is very tricky.

        1. Great answer arod.
          It’s tough to determine when this thing actually starts,
          but anything meaningful looks to fall overnight.

            1. Good thing you clarified that — we all know how I get when a teammate is sarcasized. 😉 😉

              And I think I just made up a new word.

    1. FIM takes it OTS as well.

      RE: Norlun
      FIM has .25 inche qpf is all.

      I’m in the NAM camp with this event.

      I’ll make my call after I see the 12Z NAM. 😀 😀

  18. Arod, most of the guidance from later yesterday and into this morning are indicating the heaviest axis of snow from this norlun event will actually be more southeast coastal CT and into RI and southern Bristol and Plymouth counties in MA. The radar is already indicating that. I know its difficult to pinpoint where this will be but there has been consistency with the short range models since yesterday on this being the case. I would even go out on a limb and say Block Island gets more snow than the outer Cape.

    1. I can definitely see that materializing Ace since the outer Cape sticks out over the relatively warmer atlantic. There could be immediatel BL issues over the Cape that could hold down snow accumulations a tad down there. Jackpot in my estimation will be somewhere over southern plymouth county 😀

  19. You see the EURO depicting such strong blocking doesn’t make sense to me as the NAO relaxes a little next week. I still believe it come further north, now how much is still TBA.

    1. Hadi, I am seeing both the Euro and GFS depicting the NAO being the most negative on Monday and Tuesday next’s week based on the 00Z charts. Are you seeing something different?

      2. GFS west based NAO is relaxing but the EURO is tanking so clearly you can see why the EURO is pushing it south.

  20. From Taunton NWS office this Morning:

    UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
    WILL PIVOT OVER SNE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BIG
    SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEE…HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A
    NORLUN TROUGH WILL SET UP. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN CAN
    PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND WHERE STRONGESTLOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP BUT FORECASTING WHERE THIS HAPPENSIS A CHALLENGE

    They are indicating a general 1-3 inches, but left the door open for much more,
    depending upon how things develop. 😀

      2. Of course, That’s been pretty clear all along.
        I was just indicating that it is so beautiful right now. Like
        the “Calm” before the storm. 😀 😀

  23. JR showed a snow map this am with unusual banding — for exampe, the Outer Cape getting a coating or a little more, but the area around the bridge getting 5″. Boston a dusting.

    1. I don’t think ANYONE can be that specific at this time.

      There will be mesoscale features that are impossible to forecast in advance.
      Any “snow maps” should be more broad brushed.

      Last evening I watched the Intro from Pete and then the full broadcast
      from Todd.

      Pete’s forecast last night was very good. He had boston in a 1-3 inch
      zone and the cape and islands in at 3-5 inches. Very reasonable first pass
      at this. Todd, had Bosotn C-2 inches and Cape and Islands at 2-4 inches.
      However, Todd was squirming a little bit, indicating that this set up “Can”
      cause localized heavy snow.

      Since no one knows exactly how and where this will set up, not prudent
      to pinpoint EXACT areas of snowfall.

      We’ll know when it’s happening.

      we’ll be Radar Viewing! 😀

    2. I disagree with 7. The outer cape will get more than a coating and Boston I am guessing defently will receive more than a dusting. I’m in the camp for this one. Coming in at night will be great for it to stick. Bring it on.

      1. I thought Pete’s forecast was responsible regarding this storm. Hey Os. I thought you didnt’ watch Pete anymore, LOL.

        1. Yes, but with all the talk yesterday, I was Curious.
          I only caught his intro at the beginning of the broadcast, then switched it to channel 4. 😀

  24. Beautiful morning run at around 6:30. I will miss this when it’s 3H, and that time is approaching (6-8 weeks). I’m afraid we won’t have the nice in-between stuff this year. I love winter so much that when it’s 3H outside I’ve bookmarked the weather forecast for the Nunavut region on Canada’s national weather website. Seeing 30s when it’s 90 outside at least gives me a wintry feel.

    Made it to 26 last night at Logan, so once again weather.com was wrong. However, it’s warmer now than I thought it would be, and I think the 11 day streak may be broken today. I’m guessing that our high today will be 39.

    For this evening’s system, I do think 1-3 inches are possible in the city, with more points south.

  25. 12Z NAM is rolling. Nothing meaningful will get going until after 7PM tonight. 😀

    So far, it is showing a finger of moisture approaching Southern NE. 😀

    1. I just can’t buy into that one as it has 1 inch of precip all the way up into central New England but thanks for posting 😀

      1. But you adore the JMA. 😀

        I just put it out there because it has been consistent
        along with the Canadian, but the Euro and even the GFS
        say NO. 😀

    2. Im not buying it. And Surprised you are. Like arod I’m not
      letting my guard down. Most areas see snow tonight . 1-3 for Boston, north of
      Boston not that much coatings, south shore 3-5 and most of the cape 4-6.

  31. Re: No-Lun Event

    Just because the NAM says no, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, however,
    the NAM has been pretty decent with this type of event.

    AS I said above, we’ll see what the rest of the 12Z runs have to say.

    After we view them all, then we can make the Deceased Call, if indeed that’s
    what it turns out to be.

    Right now, I am leaning towards NO event.

    1. Its tough for me to go against you since your calls have been completely spot on. I have that snow feeling that you had and think we have an event. Agree we should see the other runs. When is the next one.

      2. John,

        I didn’t want to make a call until I viewed the 12Z NAM.
        Frankly, I was quite disappointed. I thought that it would be
        bullish and paint a pretty good event. Not so.

        I do want to view the other models, but honestly, I don’t
        hold out a lot of hope. I suspect they will come in with
        a non-event as well. However, if they don’t, will have to
        re-evaluate.

        So the GFS will be available sometime around Noonish or so.
        The Canadian 48 hr version will be available sometime around
        Noonish as well, with the full version and UKmet around 1 to 1:30 or so. Euro around 2:15 to 2:30 ish or so.

        FIM and JMA around 2:30 or so.

        Hope this helps. Have a great day. 😀

        1. It did thank you. Like I said you have been spot on so I’m going with what you see. Figures I wanted this one.

  33. euro is showing less moisture for Nantucket than Boston so leads me to believe the zone will centered from canal to just south of Boston.

    1. That would be the Euro’s interpretation of the set up.
      Wonder what the 12Z run will show. Remember the last “Norlun” type event?
      The Euro was no where near as accurate as the NAM.

      Btw, not for nothing, but the model runs the past day or 2 have BEEN ALL
      over the place on where this ribbon of moisture or convergence zone sets up.
      Now the NAM has this Zone staying off shore South of us.

      It could very well change, but I’m not betting on that.

      I am now dying to see the other models. See if we get a consensus OR more
      confusion. 😀

  36. We all will continue to watch the models but I don’t think the models will every get a good handle on this set up. This is the kind of thing that can give us zero snow or 10 inches. No one will know until we wake up tomorrow morning. I still feel many see 1-3 from Boston south with up to a half a foot plymouth-Cape.

  37. Putting the models aside for a moment, here is something to consider:

    http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

    Notice the system to the North, as the Southern System heads out, the Northern
    system will Retrograde Westward. This WILL set up a trough oriented NW to SE
    from the Northern system to the Southern System out at sea.

    The models are just not picking up where and how strong the convergence will be
    within this trough.

    Just something to think about.

    Oh btw, if you look at any of the models, you will see the Northern system retrograde.

  38. Interesting that JR has early next week’s storm for mostly on Tuesday while other mets and NWS is focusing on Monday if it occurs at all. Like Pete yesterday, JR is already calling it a full fledged nor’easter for SNE but for Tuesday.

    OS, Hadi…your early thoughts on this??

    1. IF it materialized, it would be Monday Night into Tuesday AM.

      I don’t have a call on that yet. Euro is holding onto blocking and kicking it OTS.
      GFS is also OTS, although farther North than Euro. Canadian And Japanese
      have a full blown HIT.

      Which one would you trust? 😀

      2. It is very surprising that JR isn’t going with the Euro at least for now. I always assumed that all mets go with the Euro for as long as possible. Makes no sense. ❓

        1. You go with the EURO if it makes sense. Yes, it is the most reliable model but if it doesn’t correlate with the upper air pattern, then you don’t go with it. However, in this case, a EURO/GFS blend seems most prudent at this time due to strong downstream blocking.

  41. I’m not having a good intinctual feeling regarding next week’s storm. That block needs to break down and there is no evidence that that will happen in time.

  42. We have had several storms this winter with strong blocks in place, its all about the energy diving down from the great lakes. Just bc strong block is in place doesn’t mean a storm can’t happen.

    1. Yes Tom just reported that light snow in Marshfield, I suspect its doing the same in Pembroke next door.

  48. I’m a bit surpripsed to see light snow breaking out as far north and west as worcester and the north shore into southern NH!

  49. From Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: The heavier Norlun band will probably become slightly more north-south oriented than it currently is next several hours

  50. @MattNoyesNECN: That doesn’t mean forecast of 1-3″ in SE MA won’t be right, but it does mean I won’t be shocked if 6″+ somewhere under core, where it stalls

    2. Yes as the main surface low pulls east, it will pull with turn this spindle of energy. Consider this band the spin on a wheel. It’s axis will change from a SW-NE orientation to a NW-SE orientation over time as the storm pulls away. Consider the storm as the one that spins the wheel if you will. Hope that makes sense.

      2. Boston is not snowing yet. So when it does , does it go all night or stop than start back up later tonight.

        1. Unless you get stuck under one of those bands, it likely will not be snowing all the time. These bands are so localized. One minute you could see heavy snow and the next “party cloudy” conditions 😉

  52. Note the orientation of banding is from southwest to northeast. Consider this precip a bonus due to energy in the upper levels. The norlun hasn’t even developed yet which will take on a northwest to southeast orientation later.

  53. Another tweet from Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: The heavier Norlun band will probably become slightly more north-south oriented than it currently is next several hours

  56. I am in Chestnut Hill and will be heading back to Plymouth soon. I’ll report what I drive through when I get back to my office.

  57. current condtions. peaking sunshine. some blue patches. no now falling. no wind. temperature is 29 degrees.

      1. Three more ATM installs up this way and then I will be done. I am looking forward to staying put for a while now. 🙂

  60. So far the most persistent band seems to be set up right over Plymouth. Sue careful driving. You’re heading into it.

    1. Thanks Arod….hoping to head out of Chestnut Hill in a few minutes. I hear it is snowing pretty good at my office.

  64. snowing lightly in Kendall Square….based on the 12z nam showing none of the activity occuring now, I can’t say I trust it’s run from this morning.

    1. No dry slot, Charlie. And no rain. That’s good. Let’s call sun and flakes a partial dry slot.

    1. Arod I’m getting confused on the timing here. Is it still looking like its coming later tonight, what time would you guess.

      1. John it has begun but timing of who will get what is impossible. Just know that the main focus has been over plymouth and the cape and that is likely where the focus of heavier precip will stay. Boston still gets in on the action but they will be in and out of heavier snow showers through the day today and overnight. It’s a matter of location but just know that it has begun and won’t end until the wee hours of tomorrow morning. A few locations could exceed 6 inches, while most see 1-3 inches and other areas see zippo. It’s a matter of where you are and where these bands set up. We have to watch radar trends and right now plymouth and the cape are in it with more echoes filling into the south.

        1. Ok thanks. Just earlier we were talking tonight so it was confusing. I guess its Showtime, enjoy the show.

    2. Yes,
      I was just going to post this.
      Despite what the 12Z NAM showed, it looks like the event is on. 😀

  69. With the cloud cover and flurries around doesn’t look like my 39 for a high will verify, nor weather.com’s forecasted high of 37. If so, make it 12 straight days of not reaching the maximum forecasted temp.

  70. Arod r u still thinking same accumulations as yesterday, I’m calling for less than an inch for most

    1. Yep :D. In general, 1-3 inches Boston south with 3-6 inches plymouth south.

      Bullseye = plymouth

      Now this is a general snowfall forecast. Not EVERYONE will see 1-3 inches. A few towns may see coatings while other towns may see several inches. It depends upon where these bands set up and how fast they move.

      1. I guess I agree I’m thinking more get 1 inch than 3 inches, I think 3 inch amounts will be confined to extreme south eastern mass Plymouth to Newport south and east

  73. Lots of juice coming up from the south right now. Plymouth south and east and over the cape are in it right now. That’s the jackpot area!

    1. Look at that band of 25-30 mm just to the South. If the orientation ends
      up different and that gets in here? Well. 😀

  78. I know when I said a day or 2 ago when I said rain would mix in over coast and extreme southeastern mass and cape a few of you told me there will be no rain involved in this, there r a few reports of sprinkles and showers mixed with snow in far southeast mass and cape, not trying to say hahaha, but just saying that it’s mixing south and east, have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. I think that is the beginning of the real deal. 😀
      Makes me wonder what was up with this morning’s NAM run.
      Very strange, indeed.

      It looks like GAME ON.

      We need to keep monitoring, but I think something is up, don’t you?
      Those echos are getting stronger and more numerous. The whole region
      just to the South is filling in. It looks like it means business.

      1. Completely agree but the way it is oriented as of this writing, the axis of heaviest precip looks to be confined to southeast mass. Hopefully more echos continue to fill further north over time. But, I’ve been watching it. Certainly appears as if its getting its act together.

  81. Atlantic City, NJ reporting moderate snow and 29 degrees with that outer band of snow about to shift northeast over the ocean.

  82. I don’t know just how accurate this is, but do you see Troughiness?

    http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

    But compare that with this shot:

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

    This shows a wave of low pressure in between the Southern OTS storm and the
    one to the North.

    Wouldn’t it be something if an area of mega convergence (NorlunusGiganticus) gets going right over Boston and SoutEast Newengland! 😀 😀

  83. I think the main precip comes through over the next 3-5 hrs and then just a few flurries, I’m not sure many get over an inch though at certain times it may briefly snow heavy, there will be some isolated 2 inch amount somewhere south of Boston but in general it’s onto the next watcher IMO

  84. I’d have to think the area of convergence is already tipping its hand with the current location and placement of the waves of snow. And thats what I’m seeing, waves….sometimes nothing, sometimes as I type right now, pretty steady. With huge snowflakes that as they melt on the car windshield, melt to big raindrops. This might be good tonight.

    2. Been snowing steadily here for a couple of hours. Of course the intensity is
      ZIPPO! 😀 Sun shining at times. 😀

  86. Made it back to Plymouth and the snow is fairly light right now. I went through patches as I drove from the city down route 3. Nothing sticking yet but it seems like it is getting more steady now.

  87. Charlie says:
    March 21, 2013 at 3:00 PM
    Snow has picked up in intensity here but with a shining sun
    Reply

  88. 12Z Euro does not have much at all for the Norlun. Perhaps Hadi has the qpf on that.
    Looking at Wundermap, I’d say no more than .1 to .3 inch. But that’s just a guess.

  89. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=ec

    Its only a matter of time …… Though, with the column cold enough, any storm going south of us will produce snow.

    Whats only a matter of time …. Some moderation in temps. Look at the currents in eastern Canada. I see a 41F just SE of James Bay, plenty of 37’s east of Hudson Bay. Even if the NAO doesnt switch to positive, eventually even most of Canada will slowly moderate off of the Atlantic Ocean and we’ll start seeing those 40s to near 50F coming in on a northerly to northwesterly flow…….. which would be good, because these 30s have to go. 🙂

    2. Tom let’s just hope we don’t see that dreaded Maritime Polar High set up like it does during some springs past. Days in April and May with temps in the 40s along the coast and the upper 60s inland does not make me a happy camper.

  91. Wish the snow axis could shift to western CT. Just a few flurries.
    I remember back in January 2011 being under a norlun trough and getting a little over a foot of snow in six hours. It really was bad timing with the PM commute that Friday afternoon.

    1. The bands setting up now are not favorable for the outer cape. Even later tonight as they orient more south to north, that will be even less favorable out there until they begin to pivot that way, but by the time that happens, it will have weakened

  93. So far only two distinct lines of snow. One just southeast of Worcester, the other flirting with Plymouth. No reports of real measurable snow yet and bands are highly localized. Will wait to see if anything fills in. Tonight I feel the show really begins.

  94. Last band has been the heaviest and most consistent so far. Visibility has dropped to 1-2 miles last 5 to 10 minutes, with a bit sticking to existing snow cover, open lawn areas and bushes.

  95. Interesting blob of precip just west of Block Island. It has some dark green, even a bit of a yellow echo ….. as does some additional areas of precip southeast of Long Island.

    1. Yes, a big blob of yellow actually, however, none of the echos are expaning,
      nor is the area between echos filling in. Perhaps more will develop later?
      Right now, not looking like much. 😀

      2. It will become more impressive overnight. The question becomes how much more and where?? 😀

    1. * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW

      * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

      * TIMING…THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM
      TONIGHT…THOUGH THERE MAY BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BEFORE AND
      AFTER THIS TIME.

      * IMPACTS…SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES…REDUCING VISIBILITIES
      AND MAKING ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES SLIPPERY. USE CAUTION WHEN
      DRIVING AS THESE SNOW BANDS CAN OCCUR QUICKLY

  101. The NWS sees what I’m seeking yet just a tad lower to the south. 1-3 in Boston and I still feel 3-6 inches over plymouth county is quite possible.

  102. One surprise so far has been the consistent snow band carving through central ma. It’s been snowing there all day with virtually nothing in Boston.

  104. Nothing here, also nothing sticking in most areas. NAM is funny shows nothing even though it’s currently snowing.

  105. I’m not buying the NAM. It’s been snowing all day in central MA which was not demonstrated on the NAM. Also, a very impressive band is enter the coastal areas of southern RI and MA and does not seem as if it will fall apart. If anything it will blossom.

    1. I can report nothing here yet A-Rod except for a few flurries here and there. I expect that to change in about a 1/2 hr. or so maybe.

    2. I am in agreement. What is happening does not conform to NAM
      output at all. Therefore, All eyes are on the radar to see if it is a “Norlun”
      or “NoLun”. 😀

  106. Its just a thought …….. from around 3:50 to 4:10, we had some fairly steady, even moderate snowshowers that coated the ground and the trees. Since, with it having tapered and the skies brightening, the new snow has melted.

    With the intensity of some of these snowshowers, after around 6:30pm tonight, I’d suggest that any location that has about 4 or so of these batches of precip go over their area are going to verify at 2-3, maybe even 4 inches. I think that because, had that 20 minute batch fallen a few hours from now, it would have been good for about 1/2, maybe 3/4 of an inch of snow. Our visibility from the airport, where the Marshfield ob is taken was down to 1/2 and 1 mile respectively.

    1. When the sun sets, temps will cool, and any snow that falls will stick around until the morning 😀

  108. Also, looking at the surface winds, can see the opportunity for convergence. The obs on the cape, into SE Coastal MA are from the NNE, 010 to 020 degrees, where inland, they are light or even a bit NNW. Also, that should add some moisture to coastal areas to be squeezed out.

    1. Unless my eyes deceive me, it looks like the echos from the North
      and the echos from the South are beginning to merge.

      Also, that area to the South is making significant progress not only to the
      Northeast, but there is a healthy Northerly component to it. Watch how
      the echos are moving up towards Providence. 😀

      1. I agree and it’s beginning to snow in Boston now. The radar seems to be filling in. My forecast of 1-3 generally with 3-6 to the south seems to be on track.

  112. A few Flakes flying again here. 😀
    Looking darker and NO it is not because the sun is setting in 2 hours. 😀

  113. BTW I have kept track of model performances over the last 2 months and the CMC if anyone cares has been very good. Catching on sooner than most models. So it’s solution can’t be discounted just bc the King is not on board. This is for next week.

  114. Hi all!

    Been tied up mostly away from the blog today. Catching up slowly now. Full update this evening.

    Some nice snow in a narrow band finally into the Woburn area.

    I think coatings to 2 inches most areas, 2-4 inch bullseye down around Plymouth County to Buzzards Bay is a good bet for later this evening. As always, these troughs can be unpredictable even while they are ongoing. So I’ll watch and update as the evening goes.

    1. Thanks TK.

      Believe me it was noticed that you haven’t been around. No ONE to keep us
      in check. We’ve been running amuck!

      We’ve all been watching, nowcasting and even doing a bit of wishcasting.

      To me, it is beginning to look interesting. We shall see. 😀

  117. Now Taunton has 1/4 mile in S+.

    Thats evidently some intense snow under those green echos and there are more out in the ocean. If its summertime training over the same spot, watch out !

  118. Here it comes folks especially for areas south of Boston. But even the band over central MA is beginning to crawl toward the coast. Convergence is beginning to occur.

  120. Those green echos are traveling more easterly than northerly and are heading for plymouth once again. Heavier snow totals don’t look to be in the cards as of this writing. Of course, this can change! 😀

    1. Ugh…I am once again heading out of Plymouth to go to Whitman to pick up my boys. I will be happy when I am home and can sit on my couch and look at the radar!

  121. And once again, with the exception of southern RI, note that dry hole over the remainder of the state!!!!

  125. Don’t think big road impact tonight, maybe just for a while Plymouth County and areas just to the SW. Elsewhere would be only isolated and more temporary.

    1. TK. See that whole over RI again? Unreal. Looks as if there are two areas that will get hit the hardest this evening–just to the northwest of boston and a more impressive area to the southeast of Boston with very little action in bewteen. I am concerned that this particular orientation of the bands won’t change much leading me to believe that areas north and west of Boston may see an inch or two while areas over plymouth county could see 3-6 inches with only coatings in between the two bands. Your thoughts???

      1. It could happen, and the 3-6 is already verifying on the low end with 3 in Fall River.

    2. Your call for boston. All mets except my channel 5 have 1-3 for Boston. Just started coming down hard in Pembroke already sticking to the cars. I suspect when it gets darker soon the roadways will be next.

  128. This is the thing with these. You end up using general forecast bands like usual, even though bands set up and most places get under 2 yet somebody gets half a foot 1 or 2 towns away.

    Extreme case of this (for around here) in December 1977 when a Norlun / ocean effect combo set up and I had 10 inches in Woburn while next town over, Winchester, had 2.

  130. It’s snowing moderately in easton and sticking to lawns and cars!! This will be a southern private event!

    1. Snowing moderately in Westwood now. Nice band suddenly popped up a couple of miles south of the city and extending southwestward. Very nice band! Hope it stays put!

  133. Regardless of what happens (or doesn’t) in the Boston area, tomorrow’s snow cover map is really worth framing: March 22nd, and virtually all of New England will likely have at least one inch of snow on the ground. That is a unique phenomenon, not likely to reoccur anytime soon.

  134. Wow, that was a white knuckle 2 mile drive across Marshfield. Blinding snow at the moment, probably have 2 inches on the lawns, trees and getting greasy on the streets.

  135. If you get caught under one of those bands, a quick 1-2 inches can fall. This is why many places see 1-3 with more to the south.

  136. As expected 🙂 based on forecast many of us made. Snowing here in JP sticking to cars and driveway.

  137. I believe some of us called for 4+ for south of Boston and others called for not much hmmmm I wonder 🙂

    1. Glad I stuck with you on this one hadi. I’m just wondering if that 1-3 will stick on the roads in Boston, I hope. It’s been a good week with overtime and I would like to get some more.

    1. I’ll match that 2.5 to 3 and the snow rate right now has to be somewhere around 3 inches per hour. Its insane !! If that band sits over me even another 15 minutes, we’ll be at 4. This is wild stuff !!

      2. That’s a nice private blizzard of sorts.

        Cuttyhunk will have snow tonight, Nantucket, too. Truly amazing to realize that all of New England, from Cos Cob to Caribou will be covered in at least some snow. on March 22nd. I’m repeating myself, I know, but I think it’s quite unique.

  141. Nothing happening here but we’ll live to fight another day!

    In the meantime.

    Looking forward to future NAM runs for Sun/Mon. Although faster than the GFS, and still OTS, I like the setup better.

    I’m looking forward to the next 24-36 hrs. of Euro/NAM runs to see if we can get this thing up here. GFS = why bother. I find myself ignoring that model most of the time.

  142. Looking at the GFS is like flipping back to a TV show you’re not crazy about when there’s nothing else on and nothing else to do at the moment.

  143. I wish I could send a picture looking out my back door. You’d see a railing with quickly piling up snow, trees full of snow and the crazy amt of snow falling in the light.

    3.4 inches on the railing.

  144. Was just out driving around. It was snowing moderately with vis down to
    about 1/2 mile. Has lightened up some with vis around 1 to 1.25 miles now.

    Everything covered, except the roads where there is still residual salt.
    Solid 1/4 inch so far. 😀

        1. I was thinking OS was doing a lot of driving around until I figured out it was the same post 🙂 😆

              1. Oh, that would be the absolute kicker. 🙂

                I think we’ll be ok. Those 6th graders must take the first half of the English MCAS.

                Off to sleep. Still a steady, light snow that by radar, I think has about an hour left in it. I’m guessing we’ll end up with just over 5 inches. Oh well, I feared 20 yesterday, so, in comparison, not too bad.

                2 days past equinox. Sun angle approaching 49 degrees, we’ll get there, I think.

    1. Agreed, TK. It frustrates me to no end, because I like real scientific debates, steeped in facts and interpretations of the facts. I do not like sensationalism or spurious correlations being bandied about as if they’re valid.

      Note, I do think there is a global warming trend (probably cyclical, though this cycle is rather pronounced), but I’m unsure about our role in enhancing it.

      1. I think you are on the right track. Could well be a trend. Without question IMHO we are helping it along

      1. Perhaps…

        But how about the extreme dryness during the dustbowl era, for example?

        Too many things through history lead us to conclude only that we really can’t conclude much of anything.

        We simply haven’t been around long enough to know for sure. 🙂

      2. Hi Vicki: Please note, I am not saying that this winter or 2010-2011 for that matter negates the warming trend. It does not. I do think there is a global warming trend. Looking at data over the past two decades seems to confirm this. However, I agree with TK that news reports that correlate global warming with practically everything (from asteroids to hurricanes to snowstorms to droughts) turn me off. Let’s all have a sensible, sober-minded debate about global warming. And, regardless of how much impact we as humans have on the earth’s climate, let’s be aware of the footprints we leave behind, how much energy we consume, and how we are stewards of the globe.

        1. Joshua I totally agree. And I understood that’s what you meant. Simply put i believe that as stewards of our earth we need to take steps to undo anything we have done or continue to do to hasten any natural process. By the time we debate the damage I fully believe we have done to hasten the natural process, it’ll be too late. It does no harm to stop the “pollution” but it could do serious harm not to.

  147. Just a few flurries here. I am hoping for a northward trend with the storm for early next week.
    How is everyone’s brackets so far??? Witchita State Pittsburgh game was the only game I got wrong so far today. I got Louisville, Indiana, Kansas, and Ohio State as my final four teams with the Cardinals of Louisville beating Indiana in the championship game. Who are your final four teams and national champion???

  148. This round of snow is winding down. 4.2 inches on the railing. Piling up because its somewhat of a drier snow. Not powdery, but not the usual cement down here.

  150. JJ before kids i loved march madness now I am lucky to get to pee alone 🙂 let alone what hoops.

    4. My husbands golf handicap went from a 2 prekids to off the charts post kids. Tough of all the men huh 😉

  152. nothing here in billerica there was about 5 minutes of light snow earlier today but that was it.

    1. If we get clipped by that second band down around Fall River, then we could end up in the 5-8 inch range. We only need another 1/2 inch for 5 inches ourselves.

  156. Amazing Radar. Some folks are getting hammered while others are getting ZIPPO!!

    Looks like Canton, Randloph, Quincy, Hingham areas are getting nailed right now.

  157. I’m in a NCAA pool my brother runs.

    Of 9 game that are completed so far, I have 8 right… But this happens to me every year. A great start. Not always so lucky on day 2.

    2. TK who are your final four teams and your national champion?
      No big upsets yet but will see what happens. Last year on the second day of the tournament two 15 seeds beat two two seeds.

  158. It was snowing moderately to heavy in Quincy when I came in about 10mins ago haven’t looked outside to see if its still going strong.

  160. Charlie didn’t you say you would be surprised if anyone got more than an inch. Looks like some are approaching 4.

    2. I said widespread 1 inch with isolated 2 inches, and told John I’d be suprised if Boston got 1 inch, hey it wouldn’t be the 1st time I’m wrong 🙂 just watching radar 🙂

  163. Hi Vicki nice to meet you!! What a crazy winter it’s been and it looks like it wants to hang around a bit longer!! Monday could be another bout and maybe the last event before this winter finally says goodbye!!

    1. Nice to meet you too. Its all sorts of fun isnt it?? We are supposed to be in Hull sun-tues. I think it is not in the cards for us to be at the beach this winter.

  164. In the words of my 7-year old son “That was the scariest ride ever!” The ride from Whitman to Plymouth was awful. I couldn’t see two feet in front of me and the road we travel is very dark which didn’t help. I was about to pull over and wait it out when it started to lighten up. We have a couple of inches in North Plymouth. I am sure there is probably more in other areas of town since it covers such a large area.

    2. I had that experience earlier in Marshfield. It truly was the scariest ride of the winter, with thick, blinding snow at the time.

      1. Wasn’t it awful Tom?!?!?! I am in no way a wimp when it comes to driving in snow but that was frightening.

        1. It was and what you described about not being able see 2 feet in front of you was so true and of course, my instinct was to turn my high beams on, which only made it worse. I had a few drivers tailing me, but I just crawled along at 15-20 mph and was thrilled when I made the turn into my neighborhood.

    1. There is more snow coming through RI looks to be heading for Bristol and Plymouth counties over the next 1-2 hrs

  166. Hi Mr Explorer, been snowing in south easton for a while, had about 1″ on the car a few mins ago but nothing on the roads, getting lighter now though. How about you up there in north easton?

  167. JimmyJames… My final four are Louisville, Indiana, Florida, Ohio State. My National Champion is Louisville (beating Indiana in the final).

  168. Come on Charlie this is what you wrote 🙂 I will say I was wrong about Boston but was always worried about precip getting this far north

    “I think the main precip comes through over the next 3-5 hrs and then just a few flurries, I’m not sure many get over an inch though at certain times it may briefly snow heavy, there will be some isolated 2 inch amount somewhere south of Boston but in general it’s onto the next watcher IMO”

  170. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XMB

    Here is the radar from Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. This is the precip shield from the oceam storm. If thats snow, they may end up with snow cover til June 1st. On Kelly’s mtn for sure.

    By the way, I had never been out that a way until I met my wife. If anyone is looking for a different summer vacation then usual, head out to Nova Scotia. You cannot go wrong.

    1. Tom macs dad was from Nova Scotia – Bible Hill area. Tons of scots there. He still has family there. We went as a family a few years back. Spectacular area.

      1. We are talking about going again soon. I’ve done the ancestry thing since our visit so it’d be great to trace his family

    2. Ive always wanted to go out there. A couple years ago my fiance and I went to bar harbor and wanted to take the ferry to nova scotia, but they discontinued it 🙁 Not enough riders apparently. I was so bummed.

    3. Very cool Vicki !! Hope you get to go soon and trace your husband’s family.

      Yes, that was sad AceMaster about the Cat. Bar Harbor is great !! Very busy in the summer, but worth it.

  171. At 3pm this afternoon, these features r very tough to forecast hadi, but in general that forecast will hold for most south of Boston except some localized areas along the coast, hey like I said I’ve been wrong and will be wrong again, you got me hadi haha 🙂

    1. But you leave out that I say under an inch for Boston and some on here said more, I don’t want to get into a back and forth on who’s forecast is right and who’s is wrong, lets just enjoy this little system, take it easy hadi

  172. 4.8 inches. Seems after a slowing down for a while after that crazy snow earlier, the tempo is picking up yet again.

  173. Who’s gonna be the one to say Boston will get no more snow? And who’s gonna hassle me that it’s not gonna be close to 50 degrees next week? Be back shortly 🙂 this should stir things up 🙂

  174. Who’s gonna be the one to say Boston will get no more snow? And who’s gonna hassle me that it’s not gonna be close to 50 degrees next week? Be back shortly this should stir things up

    1. I wont hassle you …..

      Close to 50F next week, well yeah, 45F to 47F on a sunny day because of the sun, sure. But, the dewpoint will be like 11F and it wont feel very warm or even that mild. Still very chilly nights with some snow cover around.

      As far as snow, well, as long as its running well below 0C at 850 mb, any precip threat from a storm going to our south is going to snow, no matter the date. So, it may not precip again for a while, but if the airmass remains relatively chilly, then it could well snow again in April.

  175. I was wrong about Boston and have no problem saying it. I was just trying to point out that there was more than just an inch in areas south of Boston.

  177. Today’s CPC outlook is calling for well below normal temps for most of the CONUS but also well below normal precip for SNE. The cold will obviously continue but perhaps whatever snow falls tonight could very well be the last of the season. ❓ ❓

    TK…your thoughts on this?

    1. No hadi not stirring it up at all bud, I’d actually like we your thinking for next week, it’s kinda like when you put that there’s a possible snow event which is possible but I’m not trying to annoy people if that’s what your getting at, I see legitimate chances next week of highs around 50 degrees and legitimate possibilities that we’ve seen our last accumulating snow of the year, just my opinion bud 🙂

        1. I am thinking maybe well inland 50 near the coast where 90% if the people live 40’s is probable. Never know whether we still have snow chances but with 850 temps so cold any storm south of us will give snow. Now do we get any precip I have no idea.

          You also did say that “this should stir things up”

          1. Well I figured it would just bc of the snowlovers and I know I’ve said this I’m a snow lover too but anyways that’s just a possibility that we’ve seen our last accumulating snow, certainly not trying to annoy, more conversation, anyways I’ll talk to ya 🙂

  181. The CPC is showing above normal temps for April-June with equal chance of precip (above or below). When I looked at the text forecast for April, they are saying above average for April??? Is it going to warm up in the second half?

    1. LOL

      Nope, didn’t bother. When I did go out earlier, it was snowing so hard,
      I though that perhaps I should pull it off the street and pull it into the
      driveway. (Live on a dead end street, so I usually park in front of the house and not in the driveway) By the time I got home, it has lightened up and when I checked the radar, it was obvious it was done. 😀

  183. I guess I did break the blog. Happy it was good for a few laughs. 😀

    For John:

    I wimped out and NEVER made a call. 😀
    But then again, I didn’t know that was a requirement for being on the blog. 😀
    Seriously, I had intended to make a call, but Never got around to it, probably a subconscious thing to wimp out.

    Honestly, there was so much conflicting information and radar images
    that looked like something, then didn’t. By the time I was ready, it was obvious
    what it was going to do and by then it wouldn’t have been a call at all.

    Sorry if I let you down. I’ll try to be a good boy next time. 😀

    Final tally for here: 1/4 inch 😀

  185. Yes WordPress made some “upgrade” that’s really been a downgrade in my opinion.

    Been a busy night – haven’t been able to get on here much.

    Working on an update.

    Philip… I agree with the cold forecast and the dry one as well. A dry forecast doesn’t mean zero precip though. We still have snow threats. And I also think we’re going to see above normal snow in April as well.

  186. Ok, I logged off. Now let’s see where the post appears????

    Looking at the 0Z NAM for Monday. WOW!!! Mega movement to the NORTH!!!
    Now is this a trend??????????????????

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Like the 509mb chart:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

    NOT liking the 300mb chart as much:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif

    And Clearly NOT liking the 200mb chart:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=200_wnd_ht&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_200_wnd_ht.gif

    Even still, looks like we at least get a decent piece of this.

    I wonder IF the Euro will come around with tonight’s 0Z run?

  187. Pete just said he still thinks something is up for Monday and that there was only 1 out of 5 models depicting a storm for Monday last night and tonight there are 2. Which 2? Not the Euro and GFS.

    1. Excellent article.

      And yes we have been flatlining and evening cooling a bit globally since 2000. The global temperature averages being used in the news are so heavily skewed by limiting the full data set it’s not even funny.

      But since GW has become a political tool, most of us won’t know that.

      I wish politics were left out of it in favor of science, that way if we are having some kind of impact, instead of fighting about it we can concentrate more on what to do about it.

  190. Anyone see the 0Z NAM. It has a similiar track to the canadian, further north than the gfs and euro and gives us decent snow, now if only this verifies!

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