No End In Sight To Cold Pattern, How About Snow?

498 Comments

11:39PM

What is a lock is the cold pattern. That’s not going anywhere, right into April.

What is becoming more certain is a drier than normal pattern becoming established, but this does not leave us in the clear of snow threats either. As many of you know, anywhere from 1 to 6 inches of snow fell over southeastern MA Thursday afternoon & evening, courtesy of an inverted trough. The next threat in the pipeline is a large storm moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast about Monday. Most signs point to it being just too far south for significant impact on southern New England but it needs to be watched…

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering snow showers southeastern MA and Cape Cod, ending by dawn. Breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 43.

498 thoughts on “No End In Sight To Cold Pattern, How About Snow?”

    1. I’m not sure if you will agree but I’m seeing some of the cold air eroding away in Canada, long range past the 1st week of April shows some milder days IMHO , it’s just it’s 10-14 days away

  2. Southern Bristol and Plymouth Counties just upgraded to a WSW thru 4AM for 5-7″ total snow with isolated 8 and 9″ amounts.

  3. Well, the Monday storm threat is starting to get more interesting. In addition to the CMC and JMA, the 0z NAM is now way north and a hit for SNE as mentioned on the previous blog:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    And now even the 0z GFS has come north and clips us:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Oz Canadian is out to hour 60….looking good so far. It has been very consistent so far showing a hit. If it holds course and the Euro starts shifting north, we may be in business again!

  4. 0z Canadian has trended further south and more suppressed than previous runs but is still a pretty good hit for CT, RI, and SE MA. We’ll see what the Euro and tomorrow’s runs have to say…..it’s gonna be a close call.

  5. Wow. I blew it. Snowing pretty hard in South Chatham… Sorry folks. I commented on the last blog that ‘Tonights snow was not going to happen”. I was wrong .

  6. Thanks TK !

    Well, I’d guess we added about another .5 overnight and are somewhere in the 5 to 5.5 inch range. They needed to plow, but the street is now down to pavement.

    For the warm spot this morning, its Houston, TX at 68F with a dewpoint of 64F, forecasted to hit 82F. Looks like even they will be cooling off, I may be getting to know the southwest US better for the warm spots.

    The relentless 850 mb chill continues. Every morning, I think, maybe today’s EURO run will show light at the end of the tunnel (day 10) and, it just doesn’t.

    1. Btw ….. Good for Harvard and nothing like a last minute goal to win a hockey game for the Bruins.

  10. re: Monday

    0Z Canadian, closest pass to us. This is farther South than previously

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&hh=096

    0Z UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096

    0Z Euro

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=096

    If I am not mistaken, this Euro run is Farther North than previously

    06Z NAM

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    1. Safe to say, Arod pretty much nailed the forecast. Hadi, you didn’t do badly either. You were high for Boston, but right on for SE. Nice job guys.

  12. Adding it all up, there is certainly a threat for Monday. Interesting that the NAM
    is becoming more bullish while the CMC is becoming less bullish.

    If I’m not mistaken, the Euro is creeping more Northward as is the GFS.

    One thing is for certain, should this hit us, it would be a fairly potent system.

      1. True, but at least it is trending Northward. That’s something.
        Let’s see what 12Z run shows. I’d much rather the Euro get on
        board. The GFS is a non-factor.

        1. Isn’t that graphic unreal. I don’t even remember it being
          that warm for this period last year. Go Figure.
          I was probably blowing a head gasket because it didn’t
          snow last Winter. 😀

  15. O.S.

    12z and 00z are nearly identical with two very, very subtle differences…

    00z Euro is slightly stronger and almost an indiscernibly sharper jet. A trend? We’ll see.

    1. Yup, we shall see. Not liking that the Canadian has backed off.
      It was so consistent with a full blown hit.

      Oh well, the 12Zs are coming. 😀

      1. Jet is flat and the flow sucks. This might take some serious wishcasting in the end but I have liked the NAM lately. I should be keeping a verification log like Hadi.

        Hadi, how has the NAM verified of late in the end, feels to me like “not bad” to “good”.

  18. Amazing when I went to bed last night that the moon was so bright that I thought there was a light on in the yard. And to think of the storm on the cape. I’ve said it before – you just gotta love this area of the country. And I watched to make sure Marshfield didn’t cancel school and was more than happy to see they did not have to!!!

  19. This is Interesting, the 06DGEX, which of course is the NAM run beyond 84 hours out to
    192 hours. If you liked the NAM at 84 hours, have a look at this for 90 hours:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f090.gif

    I don’t know what the scale is for the Precip. IF it is in mm, then that is 60-75 mm
    OR 2.4 to 2.9 inches of qpf.

    Does anyone know the scale on that? Thanks

    1. Found it:

      The last panel on the top row of figure 1 is a forecast produced by the model of how much precipitation is expected to fall across any given region during a six hour period of time ending at the time at the bottom of the panel. (For more information on how to read the time at the bottom of each panel, click here.) Precipitation amounts are measured in hundredths of an inch, so 10 on the scale would actually be 0.10” of precipitation.

      So in the above panel, the 6 hour precip would be .6 ot .75 inches. That seems a little more realistic. 😀

      1. accupro only had 18z DGEX from yesterday O.S. which only showed snow to NYC and dry as a bone here.

        will check again later

  20. NAM track for Monday seems to make the most sense given the block relaxing at that time. Still not in it’s range really to be too confident just yet. I’m surprised by the Euro keeping Monday’s storm so suppressed. Just for laughs the 06Z GFS lines up coastal storms on 4/3 and 4/7. The pattern continues……

  22. Retract I have not tracked nam this far out, but within 60 hrs its been near perfect with track but on and off with QPF which is expected.

    1. They all seem to be shaking things up. I’m sorry to hear that. I have no idea where Adam Williams went on 7 but do not like the new format. I know it sounds sexist but I like a male/female combination for anchor. I guess I’m just old 🙂

      On a cool note – Dillon Dreyer was on the Today Show this morning for weather. I haven’t seen her during the week before – just weekends.

      1. Here’s a legit question: how much forecasting did she actually do? Perhaps it’s a sexist thing (actually, it is a sexist thing) but at one point every channel in Boston had a cute weather “girl” during the morning forecast. The question always rose were they hired for their looks or their forecasts. I’d like to hear some opinions.

        1. My husband said the same thing the other night – but in general and not just for weather. I think you are right and if it’s what they are doing – it isn’t a sexist thing to say but perhaps to do??

        2. I know that’s a sensitive subject, so how can I put it without it sounding bad…

          Television and entertainment in general has a large visual component. Human response, both physically and psychologically is, for the most part, visual. We respond more to things that are attractive to us. Case in point, my first response below, lol. In all seriousness though, I wish it were different. In all fairness to Melissa and even some of the younger male TV mets, I dont think they have a lot of opportunities to really forecast. I could be totally off base, but I think they are told to spit out what the models say and the graphics written for them, look pretty (or handsome) and give the weather. The seasoned mets are allowed to add their own spins and twists and sometimes opinions, whether we agree with them or not. Again, I dont think its right, but unfortunately, thats how the entertainment business works. Ratings and money.

          1. Ace you are right but my husband’s complaint was news used to be about news and it didn’t matter what the person looked like. Another chapter in our lives over? Replaced by one not as good?

            I believe you are absolutely correct with the less seasoned mets. As far as the seasoned mets…they may be given more leeway but they still jump to the station’s demands. I cannot imagine how frustrating that is for a person ……in any business

            1. Totally agree Vicki. The news should be about a good delivery of the news with a good personality to go along with it, not what someone looks like. And yes, even the seasoned mets have to adhere to the ones above too. I will say though, going into that profession, they know what they are getting themselves into. Its part of the gig. Probably why most of them dont last very long. Can only put up with that for so long.

              1. Good point about why they may not last long. Tough to do something you love and have those who know nothing about it dictate the rules.

        1. I was afraid that’s what I’d heard. Maybe that’s a good thing for him?? But I miss him in the morning. He can be a bit corny and that always made me smile and I like starting the day with a smile.

  24. I still can’t see us getting a direct hit here Monday. The NAO will be at its lowest point then and not easing until mid to late week. The upper airstream would need to make quite a shift in a short time to allow for a direct hit too.

    1. It can be – you have to look up (or back) to figure who is replying to whom. It is a good discussion – thanks for starting it!

  28. I totally enjoyed Melissa Mack in the morning on both WBZ and WZLX and wish her the very best in her future endeavors.

  29. I have not posted in a while, but have been reading every day. Couple comments, I think AROD, Hadi, and OS have been doing a great job on their forecasts. A couple times I was thinking WOW they are going out on a limb but then they were correct. Others have done a nice job as well. TK thanks as always; for being stuck in this pattern TK has a pretty nice look forecast. I personally don’t like it because I love snow but for others it is a real nice looking forecast.

  30. Since we all talked about tv mets, I just want to chime in. Dylan left WHDH, then WFXT let AJ go, now Melissa leaving WBZ. So now it looks like all major stations except WCVB have 4 tv mets. Are the news stations shrinking the mets dept? Any insider info?

    1. hmmmm – interesting perspective. Wonder if you are correct. Big business is figuring out how to cut to make more so I suppose the news industry might not be an exception.

  31. Since there is so much talk about TV Mets leaving….

    What’s going on with Harvey?
    Every time I tune in channel 5 to catch Harvey, I see Wankum there and
    immediately switch the channel.

    Is he in retirement mode? Cutting back on hours?
    Are they forcing him out to dump his salary?

    Anyone know anything? Sure seems like something is up.

    1. Dont worry about Harvey they love him over there. According to a post here yestetday someone said aj was leaving 5. If that’s true he was not there long, but was brought in only as a temp. So 5 is back to there three veterans Harvey who does weekday nights, jc weekday am and noontime and I suspect Mike will officially take over the weekend which he has been doing on eveings. Those three will stay put believe me.

      1. Hope you are correct. You know how much I respect Harvey.
        I also think very highly of JC. Sorry, but I am having a really hard time warming up to Wankum. 😀 I Miss David Brown there.

        1. Trust me I’m right. Not sure why you don’t like Mike, he is very good but that’s cool. Mike lives in scituate and I hear he is a very nice guy. Handy guy always working on his houses. Yes he he has two. One up by the lighthouse for when family comes to visit and he stays up in the cliffs. I heard he is a great neighbor. A woman I know is neighbors with him.

  32. To me we are a society that is so concerned about sex appeal. Having traveled the world we are one of the few places in the world that cares so much about how people look. Sex=money for TV, Movies, etc…. So I think in many ways organizations that put info out to the public start with how someone looks. IMHO it is a shame and speaks volume about us a nation. We need to sit back and realize what is important in life 🙂

    1. My husband should be here – his perspective comes from living outside of the U.S. most of his life. He would absolutely agree with your comment.

    3. Well said Hadi. Unfortunately, those horses have been out of the barn for a loonnnnnnggggg time. (and they’re never coming back)

  33. At home I’ve been talking about the Norlun trough so often that last night while
    my wife and I were watching the news on NECN, when Matt Noyes came on and did his segment and mentioned the Norlun Tough, my wife said: “If I hear Norlun Trough one more time, I’m Going to SCREAM!!!!” You had to be there. It was HILARIOUS!!!

    1. hahahahaha –

      I would not suggest getting any spouses together to compare notes….it would be a very dangerous move

  34. North, the upper air pattern is going through some reconfiguration, the million dollar question is it enough.

    No question the NAO is in the tank!

    1. Does the euro tend to overdue a -NAO? I remember earlier in the winter the euro would tank the NAO 3-5 days out then completely change to ease it a bit.

  35. I don’t usually do this, but here is a re-post of an article I posted last night
    just prior to the blog being updated. It also includes TKs great reply.

    Old Salty says:
    March 21, 2013 at 11:34 PM
    Here is a fascinating article on Climate change. Well worth the read. I think even Tk will like this one.

    http://geoea.org/2013/03/21/explanation-of-climate-fluctuations-over-the-last-100-150-years/

    Reply
    Woods Hill Weather says:
    March 21, 2013 at 11:43 PM
    Excellent article.

    And yes we have been flatlining and evening cooling a bit globally since 2000. The global temperature averages being used in the news are so heavily skewed by limiting the full data set it’s not even funny.

    But since GW has become a political tool, most of us won’t know that.

    I wish politics were left out of it in favor of science, that way if we are having some kind of impact, instead of fighting about it we can concentrate more on what to do about it.

  36. Again without the EURO being on board it’s really hard for me to jump in head first for the storm.

    1. Again, I agree.

      However, IF the NAM keeps this up, we can’t totally ignore it either.
      We must proceed cautiously. 😀

  38. Bad call for Boston last night on my part 🙁 the rest of the forecast was pretty good overall. Tough forecast for sure.

    1. Well, at least you made one. I kept wanting more info, until it was too late to make a call. 😀 😀

    3. Pembroke maybe got 1.5 far cry from thr 5.5 that Marshfield received and I’m the next town over. No call in last night either.

  40. My coworker who lives in South Plymouth had almost a foot of snow last night. We had about 2.5 inches in North Plymouth. I was just looking at some old photos on FB and saw a picture I took a year ago today at Carson Beach in South Boston. The beach was mobbed with people lying in the sun. What a difference a year makes. 🙂

  45. Hadi,

    At 60 hours, it comes out on NC coast. 500MB looks too flat.
    I think this run goes OTS. Let’s see how full of crap I am. 😀

      1. Same type of work scenario for me – allows me to pop in and out – hence why I missed discussion of next week’s storm previously. I can’t always read all comments.

  51. Funeral or survival party by 00z Sunday.

    That upper L.L. and flow just wants to keep it “squished”

  52. Looked back at the blog postings from one year ago today (well actually yesterday). TK in his post was talking about whether or not Concord, NH would hit 90 today. Charlie said his kids were swimming in the pool and the water temp was 57. Mt Washington recorded its warmest March temp ever. Amusing to look back at these, esp. considering the pattern we are in.

    http://www.woodshill.net/?p=1522

    Boy what a difference a year makes!

      1. Good for the soul. Won’t hurt them.

        I’ve had a good swim in 53 degree water.
        I’ve also fallen through ice before and gotten a good dunking
        in frigid water, none the worse for the wear.

        😀

  53. Is Melissa leaving on her own…or is it WBZ Management? Yes it would be great if Barry comes back to mornings but my bet is it is probably wishful thinking.

    Just for the record 0.3″ fell at Logan last evening.

  54. From NWS:

    MONDAY…
    CONCERNS REMAIN FOR POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
    REDEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN A ZONAL FLOW…WHICH
    SHOULD CARRY MOST PCPN OUT TO SEA.

    1. Well if its developing in a zonal flow and that should carry most precip OTS, than what is there to be concerned about? 😉 Seems like NWS is covering all their bases.

      2. Because it will be “Close”, so a slight shift in the track could possibly bring precip into the area. Right now, I seriously doubt it.

        Something will have to Give over the weekend in order for that to happen. 😀

    2. My plan is to head to Hull for a couple of nights stay and then if we have a storm just stay an extra night!! Hotel is across from ocean so it will be exciting. Should waves be large even if storm is OTS?

      1. Is it that new one near where the old Surf Ballroom is/was?
        As a kid, we used to spend a week each summer at Nantasket.
        We’d rent a place up on the hill just West of the beach. 😀

        1. I don’t know how new it is – we stayed there a few years ago. It’s big and it’s right across from the ocean. We liked it there too Hadi. Any restaurant recommendations?? I have to find Keith on here with a restaurant question before we go to.

          OS we’d drive down to Nantasket beach at night during the summer when I was a teen. What a great place.

  55. Isn’t funny how the Euro had this system OTS days ago and it has now taken
    the other models several days to figure it out.

    The Euro reigns Supreme!!

  57. All set for Mon, got 53 visits Mon and Tue in RI, looks like that potential stays away, have a good sunny day everyone 🙂

  58. Not that the SREF’s are good in long range but it’s way north with a pretty good hit up here. I still think something comes up on Monday just not sure if we are talking light or big.

    3. I will say a few of things about it so far:

      1. Primary is MUCH farther North
      2. Coastal is STILL off of NC
      3. (200,300mb) Jet is somewhat LESS flat.

      We’ll see.

      1. Did you see my comment earlier that she was on the Today show this moring – first time I’ve seen her during the week. It was very cool.

          1. Oh my goodness – when she mentioned WW and winked I didn’t put the pieces of the puzzle together 😉

  66. NWS Tweet

    @NWSBoston: Latest guidance trending north with coastal storm on Monday. Brunt of the storm impact is offshore but it remains in play for SNE.

  67. Looking at this lake and all around it have a maroon tint on tops of the trees, really pretty and signs of spring

    2. The weird thing is alot of customers are wondering where I’m at, haha crazy, you would think people would be behind and holding me off but nope, and this is adding even more stress, to be detailed these customers are in southeastern mass and RI, it’s beautiful out here, little chilly but suns very warm, seeing alot of grey and pink snow mold on the lawns for sure

      1. I don’t want anyone here until I have spring cleanup so would have a fit if a lawn company showed up to treat the lawn. And it’s nowhere near time for spring cleanup with this weather pattern.

        1. Agree. Even if the storm misses Boston on Monday, SE mass and RI could actually get into the action.

    1. What sucks is that we’ll go from this (30’s-low 40’s) to 80 degrees and won’t have a Spring at all.

      1. While that does suck, that is fairly typical around here. We were lucky last year in that we had a real spring after a non-winter. But most years, March, April, and May are rather gloomy with the occasional teaser or week of teases thrown in. I think it’ll be a very gray spring this year, especially with the water temps being as cold as they are (and getting colder this week). I think we’re due for a lot of easterlies as well as seabreezes at the coast that will make things feel especially cool all spring.

        By the way, it’s colder than normal in Western Europe as well. Normally, they do have a spring, a beautiful one, but this year it’s been muted to say the least. One week of glorious weather in early March (55-60 and sunny) followed by two weeks of really cold weather for them (35-40).

  73. This is a legit threat for next week folks, if you say otherwise than you are not paying attention 🙂 Maybe not a monster but chance for accumulating snow exists.

  74. I know everyone has said what accu pro weather offers but would it do anything at all for someone who really knows very little such as myself?? I tried to resist since it costs $$ but my curiosity always gets the better of me.

  75. Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: There is really no flip to normal or above-normal temperature regime thru at least first week of April in NE US

  77. Guys (and gals), when the snow cover map comes out (today’s version) for New England I’d really like to see it, print it and frame it. If someone could let me know the link, I’d appreciate it. Thanks.

  80. As much as I hate to say it as I am done with snow, the trend all winter has been OTS then turning north and we get something. If I was a betting man I’d bet this storm next week hits at some level…but I hope not.

  81. Not impressed with this storm for monday. OTS but bears watching. I think our chances for snow will continue to dwindle. We could have seen the last of it. See you next winter!

  83. I will say I was in the Boston area yesterday and there is a HUGE difference in snowcover,trees,little flowers etc, I don’t think I’ll be doing many customers in Boston area considered the snow pack for another 10 days but south of north attleboro into RI there is zilch snow on the ground, it’s amazing the difference in climates in southern ri compared to Boston this time of year

    1. Yes, indeed, Charlie. The difference is huge. I was saying that last week. I visit Providence about 3 times a month and have noticed really significant differences in snow cover, temperature, everything. We’re only talking about two cities that are 45 miles apart!

  85. Found the snow cover map I was looking for: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/html/snow_depth.html

    Disappointed because of Rhode Island! It’s that dry slot and all the rain Charlie’s been talking about. He’s right. It’s reflected in this map. It’s still not a shabby map, but not worth framing yet. Maybe after Monday’s storm, but I doubt it as then all the snow on the Cape and the Islands will be gone as I’m highly doubtful CC and the Islands will get anymore snow.

    3. But that map has 2-4 all the way down to the south coast including all of Mass, the nly area missing is RI

      1. You’re right, Hadi. Rhode Island looks like one big (dare I use the word big when speaking of RI) dry slot. Your other observation is also apt. It’s remarkable how little snow there is in parts of NY state. None, not just 0-1.

  87. 39 in Boston. Not sure if it’ll reach the predicted high. We’ll see. But, again notice the difference between Providence (42) and Boston (39). Consistently a 3 degree difference for a long time. Probably a refrigeration effect as Boston has snow and Providence has little or none.

  89. Just read about Ted Johnson’s spat with Vince Wilfork. Infuriating. Johnson should be ashamed of himself. His comments are both sexist and derogatory. Vince and his wife appear to have a great relationship. Real soul mates. She’s there with him all the way, and he’s there for her. A lesson for so many. When I see Tom and Gisele I kind of cringe. It’s almost too much to bear; from the Ugg’s to the commercials, modeling, exotic vacations … On the other hand, with Vince and Bethany it appears down-to-earth, real, and beautiful in the way love can be.

    1. Agreed, Ted’s comments were awful. I will play a little devil’s advocate though…A month or 2 ago, Celtics own KG said something to Carmelo Anthony about his wife that IMO is far above deplorable what Ted said. That was swept under the rug as KG being KG. Just sayin’ 🙂

      1. While I do not condone what KG said (if indeed he said it), the context was different. It was likely a trash-talking KG (which, by the way, Larry Bird was known for as well) in the heat of battle. No excuse, I realize that. In fact, I think it’s rather juvenile and sexist for grown men to spout off nasty things about the other person’s wife or mother. But, Ted Johnson did this on radio. Not in the heat of any battle or confrontation. Probably a good idea for Ted to literally look in a mirror and realize he isn’t exactly Tom Brady or George Clooney. I’m not a good judge of men’s good looks, but I hear both Brady and Clooney can make women swoon.

        1. I’m swooning and you just mentioned them…..no picture involved…..if you’d tossed Johnny Depp in as Captain Jack Sparrow I’d have fallen off my chair 😉

    3. Wow – I just found and read it. Wilfork is a teddy bear. His wife and he clearly adore each other. I get a huge kick out of watching her txt her husband during the games. Wilfork’s reply was a whole lot kinder than it needed to be.

      Joshua – I absolutely love your comment “beautiful in the way love can be.” That says it all.

  90. Still holding with much of what I wrote the other day…

    I doubted the northern extent of the trough from last night / this morning, which verified. I had accumulating snow south of the RT 3/93 interchange going from 1″ north to up to 6″ south. Turned out the 6″ was too little in a few places….

    Mentioned that I thought forecasted highs in this “warm up” could be 4-7 degrees to high. Seem on target.

    Still think OTS for the early week event.

  93. Euro still disappoints.

    Don’t see much hope for Monday, despite GFS and CMC.

    We’ll keep a lookout. 😀

  95. New Euro is slower than 00z. That’s not a bad thing. Still OTS but slower.

    We have until 00z Sunday on this IMHO.

  96. Tweet from Bernie Rayo who has been pretty accurate.

    @AccuRayno: Models now catching on to coastal development, esp Euro. Even GFS. This classic.models don’t catch this until closer to event. Watchout I-95

    1. Well, that’s in line with my 00z Sunday deadline I suppose. Maybe even 12z Sunday.

      I’m putting a 30% strike prob. on this as we sit.

    2. Thanks Hadi. Very interesting.

      I’ve been expressing frustration, but I really haven’t totally given up.
      You have offered “some” hope.

  98. Wasn’t the EURO OTS with one storm this year, then finally came around?
    OR am I not remembering it properly? 😀

    2. you got it right. there have been several storms where the models have adjusted more north this winter

  102. Pro mets will be very careful talking about this storm IMHO, thus you see TK and JMA downplaying it 🙂 I could be wrong in that thinking though 🙂

  103. FWIW,

    Current 18Z run of the NAM show a more amplified Jet up through hour 48.
    Don’t know how that will translate. We shall see. 😀

  106. Johnson’s head is messed up from all those steroids he injested. He is a piece of crap. I have no respect for a guy who slaps his lady around, absolutely none.

    1. The man’s head isn’t just messed up from steroids. Head injuries sustained while playing have added to his problems. Slapping someone around isn’t right but his head injuries have a lot to do with it.

  107. Good evening everybody!

    A few really busy days this week have kept me away from interacting with you all as much as I would have liked. Call it “March Madness”. 😛 Even this evening I’ll be running about for a while but I will toss in an update soon – probably a short one, and a few quick updates to follow this weekend before Sunday’s usual post about the coming week. 🙂

    Have a great weekend!

    1. What’s up with jc tk. She leaving to stay home with the kids. I know you got the inside scoop. First the shop lost Dylan now jc, what are we to do.

  108. went skiing with my Dad today and man its like mid winter. a bitter wind comming down off the mountain. but what skiers call the blue berry sky in the morning to partly cloudy with periods of light snow in the afternoon. with pack powder… at first my ski’s were not coroperating and they were sticking to the snow and not moving fast. It helps when you put wax and get them tuned up for 12 bucks. i went down every trail on the mountain at least 2. 🙂 The advantage of week days. NO LIFT LINES .. im happy i went today since tomorrow on looks to be much warmer

    1. Where did u ski matt? And where do u get ur skis tuned up for 12 bucks?!? Let me know, I want in on that!

      1. wachusett and vicki yes wax is still used. there are other stuff as well but wax is much better for the actual ski . there is something else for people that want to do rails and stuff.

        1. Thanks Matt. Amazing. I used it when young but then once the metal skies came out we never used it. No idea what’s out for skis now. I skied back when the length of the ski was measured by holding your arm over your head and the ski came up to your wrist.

          2. you can do with out wax but using was helps keep the ski in better condition also gived you more speed while giving you more control

    2. Nice Matt. I have great memories of skiing with my dad…..and knowing what wax was used for what type of snow. Didnt know wax was still used

        1. Ok thanks. And that is going out on a limb. I cant wait till all this stupid snow is gone. I hope it stays warm right to xmas.

        2. The one about JC? I did above. I may have missed some comments. I’m only at the blog for a few min at a time until late tonight. I’ll check back and try to catch up a bit later.

  110. Looks like my bracket may take another hit with Florida Gulf Coast up by 13 over Georgetown. Could we have a 15 seed beat a 2 seed for the second straight year and on the same day as a year ago. Ole Miss hurt me by beating Wisconsin who I had going to the elite 8.
    How are your brackets doing???

    1. Didnt pick, but did you just see the fast break alley oop slam by Florida Gulf Coast ? That was awesome !!

      1. I saw that dunk and Florida Gulf Coast in their first ever NCAA tournament appearance beats Georgetown.
        Georgetown since making the final four back in 2007 has had a lot of early exits in the tournament. Second straight
        year a 15 seed has beaten a two seed.

      2. Hi Tom…….a little birdie told me its a good thing you didnt go into the restaurant business where you might have to wash dishes 😉

    1. Yes it is Charlie. Very nice. So nice, we just got back from Dairy Queen!
      Yes our local DQ is OPEN. 😀

      3. Yes, the one in Marshfield did as well a week ago, afternoons anyway, I think. Now I’m craving ice cream.

  114. Did you see it? I didn’t and I was out at the time. 😀

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    So here’s where we stand on the green flash of light in the Northeast sky…So far, this event is termed a “fireball” – covers anything entering atmosphere from space junk to meteor. Green hue, bright streak of the magnitude of a firework reported New England to Washington DC. Ronald Dantowitz, astronomy expert, explains this fireball, whatever caused by, likely object size of grapefruit to table. There is a report from WBOC-TV in Maryland/Delaware area of possible meteorite hitting MD/DE state line. HOWEVER…There are NO reports of sonic boom or any noise whatsoever with this streak, making collision of anything seem unlikely…and even more unlikely that someone would know if such a collision happened, save for seeing a small rock fall from the sky. That’s not to say something couldn’t have fallen – but either way, there is always speculation, misinformation, and guesswork early in these events. Bottom line: fireball from small object entering atmosphere.

  117. I’m Liking this 18Z GEM-REG / Explorer for Sunday 18Z,
    well amplified flow on the 250mb Chart:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    500mb chart:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    And surface to go with it:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    I must say this looks mighty encouraging if you like snow, if not, well then it looks
    miserable.

    I don’t see that FLAT flow at the upper levels that were depicted on the NAM.
    😀

  118. Unfortunately i didnt see the meteor. I was sitting on my butt watching the ncaa tourney. I did see one a few months ago though which was amazing. I wish i saw this one!

  119. I’ve been hearing if this storm’s precip does get in here, it will be rain for most. Is there any merit to that?

      1. He’s just pissed that every storm has missed him. He’s a jerk and trying to be combative. Making stuff up IMHO.

  120. I would not be suprised if tomorrow a few places just inland reach 47 or 48 degrees, its gonna feel nice compared to the last week esp with the sun shining 🙂

  121. Pretty windy tomorrow Charlie. Won’t feel warm in Boston for sure. I think Sunday might be better as winds relax.

  124. With the 5 inches of snow last night, but then some sun today, the landscape is rather interesting looking.

    In shady spots, there has to be a good 7-8 inches of snow on the ground ( there was some snow leftover from a previous March event ), while in some areas, there are patches of lawn showing. Then, because the air was cold all day, the north facing sides of trees are substantially snowcovered, while the south facing sides are clear as could be.

  126. I’d like to make a deal with the cold and the snow. How about you have one more big storm, and then you let the cherry blossom trees come out and play? Haha. I am craving that spring feeling. So badly….

  127. I believe that if this Mondays potential storm is a miss which most models are indicating then I believe winter is over IMO, the cold is eroding ever so slowly and spring looks like it wants to take over around April 5thish, again it’s just my opinion, as a overall I didn’t think winter was bad, BUT I think this March was the worst March I’ve seen in a while if not ever in my lifetime of being a New Englander, I think next week looks dry and seasonably cool 40’s on the coast and seasonably mild in inland locations where some reach 50 degrees, depending on sun which looks like almost everyday, luckily we are not as dry as we were just 6 months ago so this dry stretch is welcome, have a good night everyone 🙂

    1. I think we may have a chance of at least two more snow events, but hope I’m wrong. So looking forward to some spring-like weather!!!

  128. Just watched Henry M.’s video, and it appears he’s even had it with the winter weather! Singing his rendition of “I’m dreaming of a white springtime”. He’s quite the character 🙂

  129. WOW!!! From WAY out to Sea to a HIT in 6 hours!! WOW, WOW, WOW!!!
    0Z NAM:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

      1. From NWS earlier this evening (Prior to the 0Z NAM)

        THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TO THE NORTH WITH THE STORM OVER THE
        PAST 24 HOURS…BUT TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD STILL RESULT IN AT
        MOST A GLANCING BLOW. OVERALL…ODDS STILL FAVOR A MISS/GLANCING
        BLOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONFLUENCE TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER…THIS
        POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL 72+ HOURS AWAY AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH OF
        A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
        GETTING INTO THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IF THAT WERE TO
        OCCUR…IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SNOW EVENT ACROSS MOST AREAS.
        SO ALL IN ALL…ODDS FAVOR A MISS/GLANCING BLOW BUT THERE CERTAINLY
        IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION.

        I wonder IF they’ll change their tune? 😀

  132. Old Salty I told you we could toss that 18Z NAM in the trash!

    If nothing else the 0Z NAM makes the rest of the weekend interesting to keep a tab on models.

    1. Absolutely Charlie. Well said.
      It has my attention that’s for sure. Dying to see the Euro to see IF it has
      come around any at all. 😀

  133. I’m a BIG believer in the nam esp the 00z and it says snow and a widespread 6+ inches, not quite sure if its going to be that much will see, BUT I’ve got to think and beginning to buy into the snow camp for Mon, still early but crazy March for sure, goodnight everyone 🙂

  136. Not Liking the 0Z GEM-REG / Explorer At 48 Hours or 0Z Sunday Night.

    Surface:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    500mb:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Note how FAR West the upper Low is and how much flatter winds are near the
    developing surface low. NG

    250mb chart:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&stn=UV250&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Same this with this, upper level low WAY to the West, flatter winds near the coast.

    Adding up, not liking this setup. This is 48 hours, perhaps it changes and I am
    NOT interpreting it or extrapolating it properly. Will look closer at future hours when the global model run comes out. 😀

  140. It will be in the low 40s on Monday and high 40s on Tuesday. If im correct models seem to be showing an ots for Monday’s storm. I don’t think this one will pan out and I’m very happy about that. This month has flown by and April is in a week. The time is defently running out on this last gasp of winter. Most people must be happy about that. Have a nice weekend.

  141. Joe Joyce put up a snow map this am.
    Boston: Dusting to 1″
    South of Pike: 1-3″
    Areas in CT/RI: 3-6″

    1. Those numbers will be further north and possibly higher in about 24 hrs. Longshot IMHO. Stick with trend. The fact that R.I. is even in the equation should tell us this isn’t right.

      6z Nam…….can’t be ignored.

  145. The latest nam suggest NYC gets slammed but as it moves towards us it weakens, we will see through the day, also very fine cutoff to precip to where southern nh doesn’t get a flake, also it’s happening during daytime so it may limit any accumulations, alot of variables IMO

      1. Just walking around outside of late tells you its cold enough.

        Two easy observations I’ve made about how cold it is related to the time of year:

        1. Snow is still stuck on the tree branches.
        2. My southern exposed roof still has 6″ on it.
        3. My driveway still has crunchy ice pack on it.
        4. My boiler running non-stop as it does in January.

  148. 0Z Canadian is a MISS:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=072

    As is the UKMET:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    As is the FIM:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013032300/3hap_sfc_f072.png

    The JMA is moving Northward again:

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif

  149. Such Model Divergence. The preponderance of models suggests a miss, however,
    The NAM can’t be totally ignored. The only support for the Nam is the JMA
    and the fact that the Euro has trended Northward.

    1. SO this is more Support, However, IF I’m not mistaken, I think the SREF
      takes at least some NAM data as input?? Anyone know for sure.

  151. Here’s DT’s take on the NAM:

    Wxrisk.com
    *** ABOUT 0Z Nam MODEL… come on admit it… when you saw it and the huge snowstorm it showed on this run… you busted out laughing.!!! I know I did

  153. Not sure why you are even remotely surprised…this has been every storm this season…no different. Last minute trends north…

    1. You are so right and that is the reason we can’t let our guard down at all, despite what is being said by NWS and On-Air Mets. It could very well go OTS, but based on all of the other storms, We can’t count on that. It is CLEARLY
      trending Northward. 12Z runs can’t get here fast enough. 😀

  154. From the Upton NWS office:

    THE NAM HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS ITS SFC LOW
    TRACK APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE N BASED ON ITS MID AND UPPER
    LEVEL FIELDS. ITS BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TOO COLD AS WELL. THE NAM IS
    ALSO THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF WITH 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID. IN
    COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
    GFS SOLN WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET AND EC TO A DEGREE.

    So, there you go.

    We said the NAM can’t be ignored. There we have professionals totally and completely disregarding the NAM. Go figure! 😀 😀 😀

    ONTO the 12Z Runs. 😀

    1. Sticking to my 30% strike prob. for now.

      The GFS???? What, is that a new model or something? Never heard of it.

      1. Retrac, 30% “may” just be too low.
        I’m getting that feeling. 50% might be better. 😀

        Let’s adjust this PM after ALL of the 12Z runs are in. 😀

        1. I did think about pulling the trigger higher but figured I should wait for at least two consecutive model runs. 6z NAM yesterday was on board too then poof at 12z.

          Plus, the Euro is keeping me in check. Trying to think about how to blend the two.

    2. Much closer than yesterday’s 12Z run.

      We have ourselves a PLAYER here. We can’t dismiss this baby until/IF
      we see all of the radar echos off shore on Monday. 😀

  159. We’re talking what, a 75 mile or 100 mile shift guys. That’s not much. And the models haven’t been trending south.

    1. For Sure!! Very very close. 😀

      Gotta run. Check in this PM sometime.

      Have a great day all.

  160. Just showed here at our local FOX CT station and the amounts on the EURO range from .1 at BDL to . 8 at BDR (Bridgeport) They are disregarding the NAM. The thinking is a coating to 3 inch snowfall here if you blend everything together.
    Its so close that any slight shift north or south will make a big difference.
    I got 23 out of the 32 teams playing this weekend in the tournament. Harvard and Florida Gulf Coast hurt me.

    1. Sorry about the 15-2 and 13-4 upsets JJ ……. I think that 16-1 upset is coming within the next 3 years. As time goes by, more and more talent is being spread throughout the game and the talent difference btwn the top 4 (1) seeds and the 4 (16) seeds is slowly dropping with each passing year.

      1. Tom I agree with you. We will see a 16 beat a 1 in the tournament at some point. Southern and Western Kentucky two
        of the four 16 seeds gave a scare to both Gonzaga and Kansas.

  161. March temp departures to date. (Courtesy of Taunton Climate Data)

    Atlanta : -4.4F, Oklahoma City : -2.0F, St. Louis : -5.1F,

    Minneapolis : -6.5F, Logan : -1.5F, Cape Hatteras, NC : -3.0F

    I hear that a DA in Ohio playfully indicted the Groundhog for its prediction. And these are the wonderful folks that usually decide the Presidential Election. Great……..

  162. Still not impressed guys. Still looks like a miss/glancing blow to me. Downstream block just too strong this go around.

    1. I don’t see the trend other than the fact that the Canadian, UKMET and JMA from a few days ago all have trended south. They were all direct hits a few days ago, albeit, the latest trend from the JMA. The NAM is furthest north and is likely an outlier. The GFS and EURO have been fairly consistent with keeping this storm over the fish. A glancing blow at best vs. a miss.

      1. Blocking is as strong as it has been all winter too. I agree Arod, this one is only going to give a glancing blow.

      2. I was not referring to the models, more the Cape/Islands having a greater chance of seeing precip vs. greater Boston. I don’t see anything for Boston either on this go round. I think the precip does glance the Islands/Cape despite most of the models saying OTS.

        1. Completely agree. Also, we have to remember that many of the storms that nailed us this winter were storms that were OTS, but we had the benefit of a convergence zone setting up very far north away from the center of the surface low. That will not be the case this go around as most of the moisture gets squeezed south of us due to upstream blocking. Had we not been saved by troughs extending north from the center of circulation in prior storms, this winter would have been pretty cold and dry.

        2. I agree. It’s cold out today and sure feels like winter instead of early spring. I know were locked in this cold patern but as Pete said its just going to run out of gas if you will. Each day is getting longer and the sun stronger. Snow lover or not it does not matter because winter is over technically and were now into early spring. This pattern will break down. It can snow but with each passing day the chances get slimmer. Just my opinion.

          2. I agree John although its not really opinion, spring will win the battle, if Monday is a no show then winter is over for the next 8 months

  164. Heading out, temp is 33.2 degrees and mostly sunny, temp has came up 6.8 degrees since a low of 26.4 degrees at 6:49am, good day all

  165. low to mid 40s early part of the week and mid to upper 40s second half of the week with partly to mostly sunny skies

    1. Yes matt I posted that this morning. Could finally get some milder weather as we enter Easter weekend.

  168. I would say up I Boston but really not much north. We will be on the fringe and you know how that goes.

    1. As I said, glancing blow at best. Strong downstream block, lack of model support and lack of a convergence zone as far north as other storms. That was our saving grace in the past when storms were OTS. Not this time, however. 😀

  171. A few observations:

    1. Tom; thanks for the temp data. Surprised Logan is only at -1.5F. It’s been a cold March. Remarkable how the snow is sticking around. I’d say the snow from the last storm in the city (!) has stuck around longer than the snows from the blizzard in February! I’m in Chestnut Hill now, and there’s a healthy 5 inch snow pack. The snow is not going anywhere soon with temps entrenched as they are. Also, the sun is not exactly cooperating today. Without it, melting will be hard.

    2. I’d be shocked if the temperatures on the 10-day forecast (weather.com) verified. Shocked. They haven’t been accurate in over two weeks. No reason to think they’ll be wrong during the next two weeks. Yes, it is going to get milder, but spring is still really far away and probably not going to happen this year. More likely we’ll get a jump from 40s/50s to 80s and stay there (sometime in May or early June).

    3. Animals are having a little trouble with this weather. I’ve noticed a relatively large number of dead animals in the city. Chickadee, robin, starling, squirrel (2x), rat (2x). Not road accidents, and perhaps simply dying of old age, but there’s something going on. Squirrels are thin, even those who get fed in the public garden. And, they’re out longer in the early evening looking for food. Plus, this is the birds’ mating season (and also many of the rodents). I hear the bird mating calls. I’m assuming some have already conceived. Noticed a striking red-wing blackbird along the banks of the Charles every day this week desperately calling his mate, or seeking attention of some sort. While we cannot say animals are “confused,” as most of their actions are not volitional, their instincts are inconsistent with the weather pattern.

    4. I’m sorry to say to those who really want warmer weather and no more snow, it is more likely than not that we will get more snow. Whether it’s this Monday night, or even the following week, something will probably happen.

    1. i agree. the male redwing blackbirds game about a week ago and have started to build the nests. i have found some females but many have yet to come. Orioles are next to come followed by humming birds.. we have red tailed hawks and marsh hawks … bunnies are hopping around and yes i have found the red squirrel going down.
      there are cycles for squirrels over the years i have found that there is about 2 years grey squirrel population increase then they drop and then the red squirrel population increases and the grey goes down. this is a transition year. so its about even.

      1. oh one more thing the ferrel cat population of the marsh has increased i now have identified 15 cats through out the marsh with out a colar.. i have found 3 white cats. 6 grey. 1 black 2 white/black cats. 3 mulicolored cats.

  173. Best thing to do is to lower expectations about spring. Sure, it’ll get warmer than it is now, but I’m not expecting anything above 55 for at least a month, and I think mid to upper 40s may be where we’re stuck deep into April and possibly May. I learned that around here a long time ago. My ex-wife is Dutch, and she rightfully complained about spring not coming: “Joshua, when will it be nice and warm …” To which I replied, “I’m sorry, it’s not going to get nice and warm, at least not for more than a day or two at a time … nice and hot in June, yes, but that’s what we call summer.” Needless to say, she left me (returned to Holland) after enduring 5 straight non-existent springs. Kidding of course, about leaving me because of the weather. But, it makes for a good story.

    1. Great posts Josh. But, even if temps are 40 degrees this week vs. the advertised upper 40s, you can still expect much of the ground to become bare within a week. The sun is only getting higher and stronger. Assuming Monday night does not happen (and I don’t think it does), much of southern new england will be green and no longer white in the very near future.

      1. I asked yesterday and I may well have missed the answer. Even if we don’t get the storm will it be close enough to stir up some good waves at the coast ?

        1. Since this will be a strong ocean storm, it’s very possible that coastal areas see swells but more likely along south facing locations.

    2. Both your posts were excellent, especially your observations on the animals, your contributions to this blog is superb. You seem like a very knowledgeable man. I do however disagree with the snow. I believe it could snow, but I think the accumulation type snow is done for around here anyways. Could be different north and higher elevated areas. Again enjoy your contributions to this blog.

  174. I know its the NAM but latest run has decent QPF amounts south of Boston and where I am in CT.
    I am thinking the 12z GFS and EURO will show much less if any precipitation at all. Very close call with this one.

  175. I am telling everyone to temper your spring temp expectations. I looked at the euro monthly and easily below average through mid April.

    2. I think they understand that Hadi but upper 40s to around 50 degrees in mid April still makes snow less likely and are about 10+ degrees warmer than they are today. Temps may be below average but they will moderate as the days become longer and the sun gets stronger. I do think Monday will be our last shot of significant snow.

    4. Hadi I think 50 degrees for highs for alot of inland location and 40’s along coast, I’ll take 50 degrees in late March anytime, personally there will be several days mixed in with cooler days and that’s spring in my book 🙂

        1. Not sure 50 degrees hits until next weekend. But the point is, while we may not see 60s and 70s, 40s and 50s consistently will be easy to achieve and snow chances will dramatically go down. This likely will be our last chance Monday night although I think our chances are already over.

  178. who wants to bed that someone in eastern massachusetts gets some kind of snow within the next two weeks?

  179. Notice the west to east orientation of the precipitation. The storm wants to get in here but blocking is too strong, thus squeezing the moisture to our south. The gradient will be extremely sharp. The northern fringe will have a difficult time making it to the southcoast. When it comes to radar watching time, many people will think the storm is making a B-line for us. Precip. will continue to expand north when all of a sudden it hits a brick wall and gets shunted to the east before ever making it into Boston.

    1. Agreed and all the while this weekend blocking will be increasing and reaching its peaking Monday/Tuesday.

  180. My wife and 2 kids just moved to Westwood. I look forward to the snow melting so I can install a sprinkler irrigation system and begin to design my yard 😀

  181. It is definitely true that snow will be melting away in SNE, even if we have below normal temperatures. You are all correct in saying that. I’m just so amazed (pleasantly, actually) at the snow cover we still have. I’m sitting in my mother’s old house (she’s in assisted living and the home will be up for sale soon), looking outside at the snow. James Taylor’s song is in my head; the one that includes a reference to the turnpike covered with “frosting.” And, I’ve got my favorite plant sitting in front of me – a poinsettia, which I’ve managed to keep going since November. A December scene in Chestnut Hill, but of course the calendar says March.

    Matt, thanks for your post. I absolutely love red-wing blackbirds. There’s something special about the red and black contrast. We are really lucky in New England to have such incredibly colorful and varied birds around.

    1. Those flowers will outlive us. They would survive nuclear war. You cannot kill a poinsettia.

      Snowcover will evaporate as quickly as it will melt in the March sun, even with “cold”. The air is windy and DRY.

      Sweet Baby James by James Taylor. “Now the first of December was covered in snow, and so was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston. The Berkshires seemed dream-like on account of that frosting, with 10 miles behind me, and ten thousand more to go…”

      2. How did you know I was lurking? Can you see me? Ha-ha. I am usually in read-only mode because I don’t have anything intelligent to say about the weather, although I hope to learn more. I am hoping for no more snow, but I have learned this year that Mother Nature does not care a whit what I wish for. At least it melts faster this time of year. I planted 200-250 tulips and daffodils around Thanksgiving, but they are under a blanket of snow. Just before this last snow, I was starting to see glimpses of them and hope they will peek through eventually. Looking foward to Easter and hoping it is a spring-like day.

        1. I’m sure you have plenty of things to say. We like the weather and talk about it. No level of experience needed just a passion for weather. Post more.

  182. Good afternoon bloggers (active participants as well as lurkers). 🙂

    Updating soon. Took my son for a spring sledding excursion this morning. Windy atop that hill! Felt like January but you can tell it isn’t because of the sun angle. Played it right since the snowcover was frozen from the cold night and the run was fast!

    Colder than normal pattern to continue into early April.

    Establishing a dry stretch that will likely have impacts on coming drought as well as fire danger increase once the snowcover is gone.

    That said, we are not done with snow just yet and we still have a few chances right into the first week or 2 of April. I’ll re-evaluate at that point and see if we can sound an all-clear before May 1 this year. 😀 Wasn’t last year’s all clear able to be sounded before Thanksgiving? 😉 Har-har-har-har…

    In the shorter term: I was going to use the NAM for a duster today as it is not useful as a forecasting tool, but it’s too wet so I just got rid of it.

    Euro/GFS blend for Monday.

    Update soon…

    1. Well said. I’m a snow lover but I try not to be biased. However, the NAM surely is an outlier and should be discounted.

    1. There is always “a shot” but IMHO accumulating snow in Boston is over, especially if Monday night does not pan out.

    2. We’re getting close to the point where getting it to accumulate in the city and at Logan is only going to happen under a situation we don’t see too often (3-29-1984, 4-6-1982, for examples).

      There’s a chance next weekend.

      1. I think were there. And the wording should be sure we can get acumlitating snow moving forward under certain conditions that in my opinion are few and far between in most areas. April 1st is a week away, where did this month go. The chances of snow are dropping with each passing day. I think easter will be warmer in the 50s.

        1. 4/29/87, 3/13/84

          I know they are few and far between. Nearly Every storm we’ve seen lately has been of the few and far between variety. It smells like the early spring air that makes you sad another winter is getting ready to leave but happy spring is taking its place. The seasons are all special but the in between is just as special to me

          2. Im not sad at all. I hate winter and always have. I’m a warm weather guy. I do like the fall as its still warm and nights not that cold.

  187. We visited Mt. Rainier last July and the snow could be measured in feet within 100 yards of the visitor center. I think Old Salty would enjoy this type of place.

    We had a snowball fight with the kids while wearing shorts and t-shirts, good times!

  189. TK, thank you for posting the words and the name of the JT song. Since I posted last it’s gotten brighter (more March-looking), yet the snow cover remains with a few patches of brown, especially near the big oak trees.

  190. Did anyone see the soccer game last night – world cup qualifier – between the US and Costa Rica? It was played near Denver in an all-out snowstorm. I mean lots of snow. In the second half, no line was really visible and the snow was ankle-deep. Even though I’m happy the US won, I think Costa Rica has a point when the coach declared the game should have been called. It’s one thing to play in snow, it’s another to play in the kinds of conditions I saw last night. Big game on Tuesday against Mexico. This time in warmer climes (Mexico City), but in a truly hostile environment (Azteca stadium). Would love to see an upset.

    1. Take the JMA with a very small grain of salt. If that’s the only model that suggests snow, we’re in trouble. This storm was never on to begin with. Blocking just squeezes most, if not all, moisture out to sea; hence, the clear west to east delineation of the precip pattern and halted northward extent of snow. This one is just not in the cards and will likely bring our snows to a seasonal close 😀

      1. ARod, Im wondering what you see differently than TK that would indicate an end to our snowfall for the year?

        1. If I had a crystal ball I would be able to say with 100% certainly that there will be no measurable snow in Boston for the rest of the season, but I don’t. However, I don’t see anything in the forseeable future that would suggest any meaningful or iminent snowfall in Boston.

          1. Most people didn’t see the blizzard coming a week before it. They saw a Great Lakes low with rain showers. 🙂

        2. Time is running out Ds. It needs to come togeather perfectly and with Mondays system it does not appear to be the case. Winter is trying to hang on but its pretty much april, in a week. Snow could still fly but I do not think Boston gets anymore measurable snow, maybe further north.

          1. And I could be completely wrong. Though. I hope I’m not. Looking forward to everything coming alive again.

            1. I understand you don’t want anymore snow, John. Long second half of winter for the plow drivers. Good thing they pay you for it!

              1. Ds I mean It’s practically April. I’m ready for the next season but mostly summer. You know flowers, cooking out, the 4th, shorts all that good stuff. Winter is just so long and drawn out. I can’t wait to turn on my hose so I can start washing my truck. Was in the car wash today and the truck in front of me broke down. I was like oh boy. They had to shut it down with me and my truck still in it. Just ready Ds that’s all.

    1. You’re full of bologne! LOL. We all know that if a major snowstorm was iminent that both YOU and I would be on our hind legs 😉

  198. Just reading through, and, TK, you’d be surprised at how hard some of us find it not to kill a poinsettia. I’ve killed quite a few in my day–not deliberately, of course. This year, I even watched a video about taking care of them and I was careful, but, no, it died anyway. Just had to mention it.

    1. We always KILL them. We’re lucky if they last till New Year’s Day. 😀
      Too little water, too much water, never just right. 😀

  199. Well the 18Z NAM is even Farther South with ZILCH hitting New England at all.
    What a good for nothing Tease the Nam has been. 😀

  201. Got awfully quiet here since Mondays storm is off. Looks warmer next weekend after today’s chilly feel.

    1. Not so fast on the warm-up next weekend.

      And it could also be that people were doing other things today. I know I was. Spending some fun time with my son. 🙂

  202. Hmmm
    18Z GFS looks to be somewhat farther North. What are these models trying to do to us?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013032318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=057

    18Z GEM-REG / Explorer (as far as it goes)
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    500mb:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    250mb:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=UV250&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    So Where is the Blocking here??????

    Next few frames on this run would undoubtedly bring the system up here.

    What’s up Folks?

      1. Where? Not on that map. On the other models, yes, but not the Canadian Above. That clearly shows something different. 😀

        1. the 250 chart is fast and flat even with the SW to NE orientation. There’s no real kink in that flow.

          By the way, just looked at the 18z GFS and it looks like a pretty stormy first week of April with several shots at snow. We’re not coming out of this until mid-April I fear.

          1. Huh? Flat is Zonal, ie West to East Flow. This
            is a Fine flow for 250mb. That map does not show flast flow. The point is, that flow will NOT
            take the nice juicy 500mb set up out to sea, therefore allowing the 500mb flow to steer the storm up the coast and not OTS underneath us.

            Now IF I am messed up on this (TK?), I’ll be ready to leave the Blog forever.

            Here is the larger picture:

            http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=UV250&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=UV250&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048

            2. I mean, yes, you’ve got me there O.S. I guess I should have not been so general. When I think of flat flow, I think W/E as you mention and this is correct. I should have said the trof axis is too positive. My bad and very rookie on my part.

              If there were a high to the north, maybe it’d spin it further north.

              I had all options on the table until 12z runs.

              Ain’t gonna happen now.

              Moving onto first week of April.

  204. Updated blog…

    * NO major warm ups in sight. In fact, early April may be interesting.

    * Monday’s storm slides JUST underneath but some rain/snow southern areas.

    * Chilly/dry balance of next week, but snow threat for Easter Sunday? Yup. Talk a little about this tomorrow but no details for a while yet.

  205. It might end up being one of those Spring’s where a big fat U.L.L. just sits and spins for like 60 days and the only way we warm up is after Canada does.

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