One Threat … For Now

201 Comments

7:33PM

Chilly & dry is the overall pattern. The late March sun will make the air feel milder at times (Sunday and mid to late next week) But there is one storm threat, Monday. Right now I still think it will slide JUST underneath southern New England on its way to sea, but may very well be close enough to spread some light precipitation into the southern half of the forecast area, some of which would be snow. Keeping an eye on this for late changes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear overnight. Lows middle 20s to near 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, dropping off later.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle to upper 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow south of the Mass Pike and especially near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 47.

201 thoughts on “One Threat … For Now”

  1. 18Z Model: NAVGEM, FAROP, NCODA, WW3
    DTG: 2013032318 Area: North America

    54 Hours:
    https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2013032318/nvg10.prp.054.namer.gif

    60Hours
    https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013032318&prod=prp&tau=060&set=All

    This along with the Canadian suggest that there is least a “chance’ That this thing
    “may” not slide out South of us afterall.

    It’s still a Watcher, imho. 😀 😀

    2. Thanks O.S.!!

      We still CANNOT count that thing out. Too many surprises this winter to do that. Not surprising. 😉

  3. Thanks tk, days are getting longer sunrise is 6:41am and sunset is 7:03pm, we disagree as there r chances of snow I don’t think they will come to fruition, cold air is eroding along with a flat flow going into April will damper snow threats, I believe April will be a mix of cooler temps and milder temps and in the end April will come in very close to normal with near normal precip, again thanks tk 😉

        1. Noo John I don’t see upper 50’s by end of week but there’s a few days mid to late week that 50 or even low 50’s away from the coast is possible IMO will see

  5. Anomoly March for sure John, 50 degrees is very typical of late March, anyways John goodnight

  6. btw, John and Charlie,

    This time of year, even temps in the low 50s does NOT preclude Snow. 😀
    If it is cold enough aloft, Anything can happen Late March into April.

    I’ve seen it SNOW in APRIL at night when the day time temp was in the mid 60s with
    very chilly air aloft. It can happen.

    BEWARE is all I’m saying. Not predicting anything.

    Have a good night.

    Taking a break from watching the 10 commandments on dvd.

    1. Hmmmm I usually watch Jesus of Nazareth before Easter. I haven’t seen Ten Commandments in years. I like that idea

  7. Nam rolling. Hours 0 and 1 just came 0ut. 😀
    Yes, I’m looking at charts. That’s what I do. 😀
    Just ask my wife. She thinks I’m insane and spend way to much
    time looking at “maps”. 😀 😀 😀

    1. So far, I’m seeing much amplification in the flow at both 300mb and 200mb, along with a juicy 500mb Chart. Don’t know if it will depict flatness later in
      the run or not. Just that so far it is looking pretty good. 😀

      It’s looking like SOMETHING has changed. We shall see really soon.
      I may not be able to look for hours though. 😀

      1. Just remind her you warned me in time to turn my kids from heading into a cell with circulation.

        1. Husband says I should have been a lawyer. He says I tend to be tenacious I never understood why 😉

  8. John in reply to your previous blog, just busy getting ready for a painter. Still think something sneaky could happen.

    Also warm up is not going to happen for a while folks. We could have a day here and there but overall below average.

    Charlie all winter you forecast for Boston to PVD corridor but once warm times come you start calling for warm temps inland? Most of Boston to PVD is always cooler due to proximity to ocean.

    Sure it might feel warm in the sun but temps will average below normal through mid April.

      1. Yep. :). I hope not in the summer! Remember that summer a few years back that we had an upper level low over northern New England in the early summer for about 6-8 weeks.

        1. Sure do. I eventually flipped out, told the kids to get in the car like 6am one morning, called into work and drove off for a week to Cape May on a whim. Told the kids we were driving till we saw the sun which eventually landed us at Cape May where we ended up staying for a week with not much but the clothes on our back.

          1. Cool. Was crazy with thunderstorms and hail every day. Good for you to do that. Nice to do things like that spur of the moment.

  12. Does anyone follow Southern New England Weather Coverage on facebook? Any idea who they are/if they are mets?

  13. 0Z NAM much Farter North than the 18Z run. Back and forth.
    CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. Well you have to keep a snow threat on Mon esp south of Boston, I think Boston other than some flurries won’t get much, I think it’s been fairly consistent on NYC receiving the brunt of the storm, Jimmy James on this blog I believe will get brunt of this storm with his area receiving 2-4 inches, north of Hartford and north of Providence to north of Plymouth an inch or less, further south of those places could receive up to 2 inches on some grassy surfaces imho,, that’s all I see anyways goodnight 🙂

  18. The Ten Commandments is my mom’s favorite movie. I remember seeing it as a kid and being in awe at some of the scenes. 🙂

    Doesn’t feel as cold late Saturday night as it did late Friday night and even tho Sunday will be a chilly day it won’t feel nearly as cold as Saturday due to less wind and more sun.

    I saw one weather outlet on FB predicting 60s for the 1st week of April. I know it’s a way off but I don’t see the pattern supporting this as of yet. Yes we’ll break 60 in April, probably 70 at some point too, but I thought we’d make 60 in March and that’s not gonna happen… Cold regime folks.

  19. Oh yes, and a “mild” pattern still does not mean it cannot snow again. Let’s take a look at Boston’s high temperatures for the last 6 days of March 1997 shall we?

    March 26: 54
    March 27: 59
    March 28: 51
    March 29: 53
    March 30: 63
    March 31: 46 (this was the 1st day of the April Fools Blizzard)

    60s the day before the epic snowstorm began? Yes. Warm weather can happen just hours before big snow.

    NEVER count it out.

    (Bonus: April 1997, just days after the biggie, Boston’s high temp was 75 on Monday April 7, 2 days later it barely got above freezing with more snow on Wed April 9, high temp 34 at Logan. This is Spring in New England.)

    1. It can happen but in general tk the word on the streets is not April = snow , never has never will, sure it can snow but it can snow in DC in April too but it normally doesn’t, i guess what im trying to say is that in most years the snow is over,,and i think this year going forward will be no different, not trying to be shrude tk just saying, thanks for the hardwork on this blog as always

    2. Agree TK. There’s a difference btwn the surface warming in spring vs. the airmass above us. Its one big reason there tends to be so much severe weather in spring, as many very cold pockets aloft remain. And, as your examples show, if a cold pocket is above us, with a surface low reflection tracking just south of us, 50s to 70s can instantly turn to heavy, wet snowfalls.

  20. Hadi, places like Wrentham,Walpole,North attkeboro and foxboro will be warmer than Boston just about every April and May and we live in the I95 corridor, huge differences hadi in spring and still considered I95 corridor, hope all is well

  21. Don’t tell anyone but the GFS ensembles this morning are actually showing the NAO both east and west going positive around 4-8 and 4-9. This is the first time it has shown this in weeks. We will see if the trend holds and maybe we will finally see Spring. It is only one run, but it is a start.

  23. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_yfb_nir_100.jpg

    Here’s another sign that the past few weeks have still seen the overall transition from cold season to warm season begin.

    In the satellite picture above, scroll down a bit. What your looking at is eastern Canada and Hudson Bay.

    While the US has been well below normal, eastern and northeastern Canada have been well above normal, getting into the upper 20s to mid 30s daily from the eastern Hudson Bay shores, points east. At the surface, the winds have also been from the east.

    The result has been some very early openings in the ice on the eastern edges of Hudson Bay. Actually wouldnt surprise me if when the block relaxes and the US moderates, eastern Canada should chill off again and the Bay may fully refreeze again, until it begins to melt in early May.

    For anyone interested in tracking the snow and ice throughout all of Canada and towards the north pole, simply google Canada Satellite Imagery and chhose Environmental Canada, which has satellite shots galore to enjoy.

    2. Great info Tom. Its easy to focus on our area of the world and forget there is a lot more out there. Thank you. I also feel like a traitor. We are going to Nantasket for a few days instead of Humarock. I’m taking my Humarock sweatshirt to make a statement however :). I’m hoping for maybe a bit of the storm while there

  24. Not a tough call from folks to say no more snow at this point, tough call is to say that it still might and watch and see what happens. It’s March 23rd not hard to go out on the limb and say no more snow 🙂

  25. Miami ….. Current temp : 75F, Current dewpoint : 73F !!!!! I guess the 70 to 80 degree sun angle in the Caribbean is starting to have evaporation power once again.

  26. Heading to Orlando on April 12th!! Looking forward to some great weather Tom!!

    If indeed this is our last chance which I am not sure of, then bring on the great weather!!!

        1. Nice !! Enjoy !!! We’re thinking of heading off with the camper, but, we’re waiting to see if this pattern relaxes a bit. My wife will camp in daytime highs of 55F, but not these 40s.

  28. Good morning. Another beautiful day.

    I think TKs reminder is wise. I said yesterday that certainly a storm in April was unusual but lately unusual is the norm for our storms. I am not saying that we will have a storm but I really don’t think we can use past experience as a selling point that there won’t be more snow.

  29. marshland is what i like to call minor flood and its rising still. lower trails are all flooded out.
    have about 85% snow cover left. which is a level 4 out of 5 snow deapth

  30. It may be my imagination, but is the Euro closer still?

    http://i.imgur.com/YhzSwFu.png

    Btw, 06Z NAM a bit Farther South than 0Z NAM. Waiting on 12Z
    06Z GFS about the Same as 0Z.
    0Z JMA still gives us a moderate hit as does the NavGem.
    The 0Z FIM also gives us a Moderate hit.

    I guess I’m being stubborn. 😀

        1. No surprise on 4/1 going poof. The temps next week will be going up daily. 50 by Saturday and hopefully up a few more degrees for the Easter egg hunts Sunday.

          1. As TK pointed out, temps in the 50’s or 60’s has nothing to do with a snowstorm on the following day.

            Looks for the storm to come around.

            Doesn’t matter to me – I’ll be in a warm, sunny locale. 🙂

  33. Vicki…I was just scrolling back through the last blog. Did you have a question about places to eat down in my area?

    1. Hi Keith. We were thinking of alma nove. It gets good reviews but wanted to see if you’ve been there. We’ve been to tosca and square cafe so wanted to try new. Also wondered if u have a lunch recommendation. Thank you!!

      1. alma nove is fantastic. I’ve been there a few times. For lunch Hingham Beer Works is a good take. Sometimes it can be a little loud but overall the food and drink is very good. Also for just burgers…Wahlburgers is pretty good.

  35. Storm is a no go for Monday. As I said, the storm will look as if its going to nail us when all of a sudden it hits a brick wall and precip slides east. The models will have this coming extremely close but there is very little chance we see any snow from this event. Spring is coming 😀

  36. Quick question we r planning to try and move closer to Boston, is Dedham have good schools and how is the town? Just trying to make life easier, my wife goes through at least one breakdown every 2 weeks ranging from an hr-3 hrs stuck on tracks waiting for trains to go by, just can’t do that anymore, thoughts anyone?

          1. Urlseline Academy there for Girl’s High School
            My daughter was accepted there and almost went,
            but went fore free to Boston Latin School.

  38. Nobody ever tried to tell you (or anyone) April snow is the norm, or common. 🙂

    Just trying to remind people that weather (temps) do not progress steadily upwards and then stay that way. The average temp does, but keep in mind these averages are derived by 30 years of information.

    That is why I despise when a TV weathercaster, for example, says “It should be 53 today.” No, it shouldn’t BE 53 today. 53 is the average of 30 years of temperatures for this date.

    2. Tk I may be a big mouth at times but ask my wife I talk very positive of everyone on here and the blog, thanks again 🙂

      1. Your not a big mouth its a weather blog and your entitled to your opinions and if nobody likes it shame on them. Most people here respect that. Beautiful early spring day today, this would be perfect for next Sunday. Charlie what about the south shore, some great towns and schools.

      2. Charlie…I may have called you a contrarian in the past but I enjoy your posts. I don’t think you have a big mouth at all.

      3. Charlie, I don’t think I could say anything bad about you. I bet the worst thing you ever did in your life was press all the buttons in the elevator of a 10 story building. 😛

        You like to push buttons. I enjoy having you here. 🙂

    3. Amen to that. That is on of my pet peeves with the weather folks.
      Or when the say normal high for today is 51, when in fact it is the average high.
      Perfectly normal to be 35 or 65. 😀 😀 😀

          1. He also used to post on the old ne.weather newsgroup (on usenet) back in the 90s. He was the same then as he is now.

              1. OS….who was the so-called met from Pennsylvania everyone picked on in the newsgroup? I forget his name but I remember that’s when the group got way out of hand.

                1. Sorry, I don’t recall. btw back then I didn’t go by Old Salty. I do remember
                  SNONUT, a met from NJ.
                  I used to communicate with him. Learned much from him.

                  If I recall, Todd Gross frequenting that site.

                  😀

  40. Vicki, while your down at Nantasket and I’ll bet you’ve probably already driven this road, but just in case you havent …… Drive down Jerusalem Rd, you’ll pick it up just beyond the southern end of Nantasket Beach, and after about a mile, it hugs the ocean down to Cohasset Harbor. The views are great and the houses are….. well…..lets just say its where some of the real wealthy live. Also, you’ll pass by a smaller Cohasset beach that in summer, you need a town sticker for, but I think you’d be fine now and then, eventually, you’ll come out to Cohasset Harbor and take a left and the Old Salt restaurant will be there. Hear good things about it, never eaten there, but the harbor view alone is probably worth the price.

    2. We were just saying we needed to drive that rd but couldn’t remember the name. Thanks. We will do tomorrow and try the old salt love the name :). My oldest had her reception at atlantica. We love cohasset.

      Thank you tom and Keith.

      1. Enjoy Vicki. I just googled both and Atlantica is closed Monday’s and Tuesday’s and the Old Salt is seasonal and thus closed. (Sorry).

      2. Cohasset is kind of the forgotten gem on the south shore. I love the small downtown area and there are a couple of decent places to eat there too…but I can’t remember the name for the life of me.

        On another note I was just looking out at my back yard…man there is a lot of work to do out there. Trees, large branches and limbs down, grass that wasn’t mowed since the middle of august and leaves that weren’t raked in the fal….uggh….April should be fun!

        2. I have been out all weekend working on my front yard. I had a huge pile of tree limbs and branches that came down from the blizzard, also removed a small tree. I have it down now to a very small pile. I received a couple estimates but tree work is very expensive. A neighbor behind me cut the big stuff up and took for firewood, it saved me some money.

          1. I was looking into a lawn and tree service too…way too expensive like you said. I’ve got a buddy who has a big mower/tractor and will help me over the course of April. He said he could use the firewood so its a win-win. One large tree snapped in half at about 30 ft and it’s just hanging there. That’s going to be a challenge.

  41. Its 90F with a dewpoint of 68F in Fort Lauderdale, FL. I know thats hot and humid, but my soul could use that for a day or two right about now. 🙂

  43. What is the NWS seeing that we are not?

    @NWSBoston: Morning models are in good agreement on upcoming low track. Northern fringe may still be significant…wind, snow, and some coastal impacts.

    1. I still believe that storm affects people south of Providence with maybe an inch it 2, around Boston I think a few snowshowers is not out of the question IMO, you?

    2. Even along the beaches of the South coast of CT, RI and MA, an inch or 2
      tops IF that. So I don’t get that post at all. They must be smoking in the office again. 😀

    4. It’s not happening hadi not in Boston or our areas. As Oldsalty says often what they smoking over there.

  44. One thing that I don’t see till at least mid April is temps shooting into the 60’s or 70’s, you can never rule that out but long range for sure shows it staying cool

        2. my dad use to be the drum major for the british. with the fancy hat and yellow coat with the drums and fife

      5. The day my new grand is born (due April 18/22 timeframe)

        Is someone able to keep track of these. I won’t be back to my computer till Wednesday

              1. If u can’t put down GB (grandbaby) for me then use 4/18 knowing it may change Boy I’m a pain huh????

  45. But snow off shore doesn’t impact people 🙂 so the outlook from them is pointless IMHO

    1. I guess my point is if it just trends north say 50-75 miles some areas in extreme southern New England could get into it, yes it’s far fetched so to speak but still close

  46. Nasty storm in Orlando. JJ you watching? Rotation in the cell. Husband said 2 tornadoes on ground not sure if he’s right. Wind on golf course amazing

  47. Hi Vicki…. I saw the time lapse of the storm that came through the golf course. A quick storm with gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Those winds were bending the pins. I was surprised with the threat of showers and storms they did not have the players tee off in the morning to finish by early afternoon. The PGA usually does that when ever there is a threat for showers and storms.

    1. We just turned it on. They are under a warning – or were. Not sure if its lapsed. Power is out in the clubhouse and they said media room had to be evacuated

  48. The tornado warning goes until 3:15 pm. There was a wind gust of 63 mph at Orlando International Airport.
    I think we maybe looking at Monday finish with this tournament.

        1. Nope it appears 49.2 degrees is the high here, it’s dropped back to 48.8 degrees so maybe later this week, will see 🙂

  51. Keith/OS…regarding that met that was picked on that ne.weather newsgroup, his name was Bartlo, I forget his first name. It might come to me later. He died a few years ago suddenly I believe. I left that newsgroup back in 2003 or 04. It was getting like the WBZ blog. Todd Gross left the group because of the trolls IIRC and I soon left pretty much after he did.

    1. Hi Phillip…yes thank you that was his name…I think his first name was Joe. People treated him like dirt. He was a little strange but overall no one should have been treated like that.

  52. Not that it necessarily means anything, but I have been comparing the current radar
    returns with the 18Z and 12Z Nam simulated radar reflectivity and there is ZERO
    correlation and I mean it’s not even close. Current echos WAY more North than
    simulated at the same time on the mathematical model. Interesting, that is all.

    Simulated for 21Z:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032418&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=003

    Current:
    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

      1. On subsequent frames, it looks like the Cape and Islands could
        get into the HEAVY stuff for a few hours. 😀

            1. btw,
              when you click the link above, you can also click next and advance it yourself and you
              can see what I mean. 😀

  55. Winter Weather Advisories up to NYC and Long Island. Really and I am mean really close here in CT and a slight shift to the north could make a big difference. The blocking maybe just strong enough to prevent that from happening bringing the precipitation up to NYC and Long Island and no further north.

    1. JJ agreed. I can’t believe how close this thing is.
      A little blip and we get it. 😀

    1. Its pretty much the same pics we were seeing on the golf course…what JJ and I were talking about above. PGA tournament is there this weekend. Although as JJ said final round postponed until tomorrow. Nasty stuff

  58. Yes that snow just south needs to be watched, a slight shift north and people in southern ct and southern ri could get some heavy snow, I would bet against that a shift northward happens but were talking 50 miles

  59. From NWS:

    MODELS… THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THIS STORM…GIVING US MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS STORM WILL NOT SUDDENLY HEAD INTO OUR REGION. IT IS FORECAST REORGANIZE ITSELF OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST TONIGHT THEN HEAD EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING…AND PASSING SE OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W LATE MON NIGHT.

  60. Here are a couple of interesting 12Z runs from the FIM suite:

    NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Model Prediction Post Processor
    Flow-Following Finite-Volume Isosahedral Model (FIM):

    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM Area: CONUS Date: 24 Mar 2013 – 12Z

    Surface at 42 hours
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013032412/3hap_sfc_f042.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013032412/totp_sfc_f060.png

    total qpf
    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM_zeus Area: CONUS Date: 24 Mar 2013 – 12Z

    Surface at 42 hours
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMzeus/from_jet/fim9/2013032412/236/3hap_sfc_f042.png

  61. up to 2 inches south coast,cape and islands other than this an upward climb in temps and by next weekend. low 50s by the weekend. maybe some light flurries and sprinkles thursday. partly to mostly cloudy through out the week. most days having more in the way of sun. lows in the low 30s

    2. Hi Emily. We are LOVING your poems. Did you see the comment I posted the day we got them? My husband said it is as poetry should be where you can relate to the poem rather than having to wonder about the meaning. Very nice !!

      1. Yes I did see it, Vicki. Thank you SO MUCH!!!! And tell your husband thank you as well!!!! I really appreciate it! It means a lot!!

  63. Well that’s 906 fewer spam messages waiting to be deleted. 🙂

    Working on The Week Ahead now…

  64. Today’s 6-14 day CPC outlook calls for continued below normal temps for much of the CONUS and now above normal precip through the first week of April. The mets are advertising a warmup of mid-50’s for Easter Sunday, but the CPC says otherwise.

    TK…What do YOU say about a warmup for next weekend?

    1. If it happens, very briefly. But today’s 12z Euro is a little iffy, and that being the run that advertises this warm-up has me a bit cautious about buying it.

  66. No wonder hull floods. High tide isn’t until 10:21 and the water is pretty much up to the sea wall already. Keith alma nove was great and the shipyard area is more than interesting.

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