Spoke(n) For

92 Comments

10:44PM

A storm still spins offshore. A parcel of drier air came in Tuesday, but another spoke of moisture will rotate southward later Wednesday into Thursday with more clouds and a risk of rain/snow showers. The storm finally drifts away and high pressure nudges eastward for the end of the week. This won’t last though. Already there are signs of a new trough and blast of chilly air from Canada next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun dominates the morning. Clouds arrive in the afternoon north to south. Highs around 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs upper 40s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 53.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

92 thoughts on “Spoke(n) For”

  1. Thanks Tk, quick question, is it true that it snowed around 4 inches twice in mid June in the 1950’s in Boston? I’m thinking it doesn’t snow usually in Boston in April nevermind June, goodnight and thanks again

    1. Snowflakes have been observed in interior New England in June before. But Boston did not snow 4 inches twice in the 1950s in June. About 50% of Aprils see measurable snow in Boston but the big amounts are very rare. Double-digit April snow has only occurred at Logan 2 times since 1920 (1982 & 1997).

      1. Yeah records show here south of Boston about 25% of Aprils see measurable snow, the last time that I can Remember is 16 yrs ago in 97 haha

  2. Thanks TK !!

    I wonder if the April Fools 70F day trick could be on all of us.

    I notice TK has a 56F and BB has a 60F for next Monday, which seems to have been trending a bit higher as the days pass.

    So, Monday dawns with temps near 40F or into the 40s and the 70F potential could come IF ……. the showers push out early Monday and we get a good amount of sunshine ahead of the arctic cold front Monday night. During that time, 850mb temps will be above 0C and with the approach of the arctic cold front, I’d think the surface winds will have to have some westerly component to them.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    OS, thanks for your reply in previous post. Glad you will still be here in spring/summer, too! I am always looking forward to your links and info.! 🙂

    1. I’ll be here, thank you.

      In the Spring and Summer I am always on the look out for the days
      that a tornado watch might be issued. It’s pretty cool to look at all of the maps and come to the conclusion that on such and such a day, a watch might be needed and then when it verifies it is quite satisfying. (that is strictly from the weather geek in me. I don’t want anyone to be hurt or suffer property loss/damage. btw, with that recent Springfield tornado, my Son-In-Law’s cousin lost his house in Monson)

      1. OS – yet another time the local mets might think about lurking here. As I recall it was more than just once that you spotted the potential for and eventual development of rotation in cells around the state!!!

        1. Thank you Vicki, but you know the old saying, even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. 😀

      2. I like to look at all the maps, too. But I can’t always figure out the maps and be able to predict like you do. But, I like to look at the satellite loops and sometimes I can guess on that and the few times I have been correct – it’s a good feeling. I also like watching the doppler radar and I consider what’s going on outside (temp., wind, sky, etc) and try to make a conclusion with that. I do use my gut feeling at times but with the help of satellite loops and weather conditions it’s easier to make decisions. For some reason, I can’t predict winter weather or tell by satellite. Winter is a different “animal” to me, and even ‘though it’s all weather, I prefer analyzing summer weather. In any case, no matter the season, weather is fun! 🙂

        Also, sorry about Son-In-Law’s cousin’s house. Have they rebuilt?

  4. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

    Most places N of I80 plains to east coast have NOT had their last accumulating snow this winter

    1. I’d say about 10% here so that might be considered bare. My entire lower back yard has 100% cover. I just looked up and down the street and only one front yard had 100% cover. Most have just spots. The majority of area definitely doesn’t have snow

        1. Maybe………

          You don’t have the forecast for Mother’s Day do you? I was thinking of a picnic 😉

            1. John – I’m not going to wink at you when I’m being sarcastic……….I’m kidding. And I actually am thinking of a picnic for Mother’s Day. We had one two years ago I believe and it’s a great way to celebrate with little kids….they run and we picnic 🙂

  8. John you are too quick to say no more snow IMHO, chances is not high but still exists with this pattern.

        1. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. Does anybody on here honestly believe that were going to get one more snow storm. Lets take a poll and see what people think.

          1. A lot of people on here think its possible. So we are keeping a open mind about the possibility that it could happen.

            1. Absolutely its possible. The question is not do you think its possible do you think we will get one more snow storm. I do not .

              1. The 12Z GFS shows snow is possible for the area Next Tuesday April 2nd, Saturday April 6 and Tuesday April 9th.

                Will it? Who knows but it is possible. I’m not sure why you hate snow so much and everything has to be Yes or No with you. A polite debate can sometimes be enjoyable to some.

                2. I’m in the camp for one more possible snow event. We have a lot of talented “armchair mets” on this blog and I tend to think they know their stuff. Who am I to argue when I can’t read a model to save my life. If we don’t get one, then so be it. C’mon spring!!

                3. I prefer to discuss the possibilities of a snow event rather than saying Yes or No simply based on nothing. One thing is for sure, It can rain when its cold, that would be a cold rain. But at the same time it could snow when its cold out. One thing is for certain and that’s it cannot snow when all levels of the atmosphere is above 60 degrees.

          2. John – the point in reality is that no one can say definitely yes OR definitely no. That’s the only point….just remove the definite

        1. Sue you are correct. No one has called for a snow storm. John is having problems comprehending a normal conversation.

      2. i said event and tonight is a snow event if it snows john or is snow showers not considered a weather event 😛

  12. John, arod, and Charlie among others will be eating some freshly grilled crow this April! There will be another widespread accumulating snow in SNE this season. Will every town see it or will it be confined to interior areas? Not sure yet. But the pattern we are in is conducive to late season snow threats (as TK has warned repeatedly). It is beyond me how someone could look at the long range models for next week and quite possibly the following week, and not at least acknowledge that a potential exists.

  13. John I am not saying it’s going to happen, I am just saying the chance exists. I can’t give you a yes or no, but rather we should be on the watch.

  14. Joe B tweet

    @BigJoeBastardi: There could be a heck of mid week storm next week with plenty of snow/cold north, severe weather s. plains to ne, I-80 nlooks snowiest

  15. My answer is yes John. It will snow again.

    In fact, there will be one, possibly two chances next week. 12z GFS and Canadian have a storm riding up the cold front (after it passes here on Monday night) with a threat in the Tues-Wed timeframe. Perhaps even more intriguing is that most of the models have a juicy system forming over the Gulf and tracking into the Southeast late in the week (4/5-4/6 timeframe). Where will it end up tracking? Will it have enough cold air? Not sure, but teleconnections look favorable for the period (+PNA, -AO, and -NAO) and there is still plenty of colder than normal air nearby in Canada.

    Can any of us honestly say for sure with 100% certainty? No. But anyone denying that a threat exists is either not paying attention or just basing their opinion off climatology.

    1. Thanks mark for answering. Not that difficult of a question. You either think we get one more snow storm or you don’t. We all can agree that yes it can snow. As Arod said last week the best he cant look into a Crystal ball and see. It’s just guessing and a friendly poll.

  16. Beautiful day!! Got alot done on properties, 209 done 207 to go, 53.1 now mostly cloudy but got to 54.7 degrees at 2:45, good day all

  20. In a nutshell: We live in New England. Anything can and will happen, especially in March and April. Both months are about as fickle as can be. Being an avid hiker, I know the New England mountains well. The White Mountains, but also the Katahdin region are known to have snow chances virtually year-round. I climbed Tuckerman’s Ravine trail in mid July 1997 in freezing fog above 4000 feet and light snow above 5000 feet. Nothing really stuck as the temps were in the mid 30s, but still. The base at Pinkham was 70 and sunny that day. I’ve seen snowstorms in the Whites in May and late August. The only period during which accumulating snowstorms really don’t occur there is between early June and mid August.

    1. I know I’m repeating……..I’m old so that happens 😉 But remember that back in my dad’s dad Memorial day weekend was Massachusetts ski weekend at Tuckerman

      1. Yes, indeed. And this year, unlike last, there will actually be some nice spring skiing on Tuckerman’s. I would never do it for fear of breaking every bone in my brittle body, but it’s nice to see them fly down the ravine.

        Btw, I climbed Tuckerman’s in July of 2005. It was hot and humid that day, even on the trail (about 55 atop Washington). But, because of all the snow that had fallen that year (especially from March through late May) there were a few skiers traversing the remnants of the snow.

        1. My dad loved it………..and when he started he was on barrel slats……….or so he told me and I had no reason not to believe him. My older brother has skied Tuckerman also. I’m not clear on the difference between Tuckerman and the headwall. I know there’s a Lion Head 1, 2, 3 and a Little Headwall. But not sure what my dad referred to when he said the headwall.

          1. It’s the very steep, upper part of Tuckerman’s Ravine. The Ravine gradually flattens as you head down it. The Tuckerman’s Ravine trail goes straight up the Ravine. The Lion’s Head trails (there is a summer and winter route) are less steep and skirt the north side of the Ravine. I’ve hiked Washington many times as well but not skiied it. The weather extremes there have always attracted me to that mountain!

            1. So if you are looking at the floor of the Ravine, the head wall my dad skied would be to the right? I have a map on my wall and have always wondered. Sorry for so many questions but thank you for helping me figure it out!

              1. Vicki, standing at the bottom of the Ravine, the headwall is right in front of you looking straight up the ravine. Lion’s Head would be to your right. The Little headwall is much less steep and down near the base of the Ravine. Found this photo with the different ski runs labeled:
                http://www.chauvinguides.com/headwall.htm

            3. i have gone to the weather observatory up there its fasinating to say the least. i have hiked the lower part of mt washingtion but i have never climbed the entire thing nore would i be fit to do it . i would not ski on that thing . its harder than the back trails of stowe which are considered the hardest trails in new england and hint the hardest trails in the usa. continental minus alaska.

  21. The batch of cold air set to be released out of Canada next week is impressive to say the least. Winter feel is coming back for a little while and it will not be absent of a snow threat or 2, … or 3. We’ll see.

  23. Will be updating hopefully BEFORE 6PM. Highlights of forthcoming blog entry…

    * Lobes of moisture around broad low give rain to snow showers later tonight and some light accumulation on unpaved surfaces and chilled cars not out of the question (1/2 inch tops).

    * Dry interval tomorrow night before the next lobe swings down on Friday midday-afternoon, but this one has a little more modified maritime air with it so probably less chance of snow showers and more a chance of rain showers.

    * Not buying Saturday’s “mostly sunny” in the NWS point forecast because I think enough cold air and instability lingers aloft to pop some diurnal cu/stratocu and maybe a spot sprinkle or 2.

    * Easter morning: Glorious but starts chilly followed by rapid warming to 50+

    * Easter afternoon: Speed up timing of next disturbance. Clouds fly in, rain not far behind.

    * Monday: May end up quite nice and sneaky warm day! Is a thunderstorm possible when a modified arctic front cruises through at night? Sure.

    * Tuesday: Cloudy & cold as front settles just to south and moisture overruns it. Holding off on a mix/snow threat in favor of just an overcast (so far away and plenty of time to figure it out).

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