Losing Grip

83 Comments

8:53PM

The big spinny low is losing its grip but will hold on enough through Saturday to still produce some clouds and at least a slight shower threat.

Easter Sunday will start glorious, and end wet as a storm system approaches from the west. As this system clears the region by Monday, some mild air will be a nice Spring treat, but by the middle of next week another chilly pattern will be established.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated afternoon rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated midday rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain by late day. Low 32. High 55.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 30. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 44.

83 thoughts on “Losing Grip”

  3. Quick question tk, when you forecast your highs and lows are they for any particular spot or is that an average across the forecasted area?

    1. For instance the high temp here tommorrow I believe will be 54 maybe 55 degrees away from the coast, I’m just wondering

    2. It’s generally an average if it says “around 50” for example. I’d expect them to range anywhere from 48 to about 53. Sometimes I will put a range of 48-53 for the same thing. If I think the spread will be larger, I’d break it up. For example, 45-50 coast, 50-55 inland.

  4. Tk, this is random, but do you have a preference of when Easter falls? (For whatever reason.) Like it being in March or April? Personally, I like when it falls in April. Not sure why, it’s just the month that I associate it with. Plus, USUALLY it is warmer in April, so the weather seems to fit more with the holiday for me.

    But I’m okay with it being in March 😀 Can’t complain about the chocolate 😉

    1. Hi Emily. I hope you have a special Easter. We colored our eggs tonight. Even our grown kids will have an Easter hunt……but watching the grandkids is the best fun.

      1. Vicki– I LOVE Easter egg hunts! haha! I hope you have a very special Easter too!

        Joshua–Thank you for your input! I agree! I love your explanation too.

        TK– Yay for it being on April 20th next year 🙂 But yes, I know what you mean by the strong connection between April and Easter.

      2. i tried to have the college allow us to have a campus wide registered easter egg hunt but they said no. so we are doing it anyway just with freinds and who ever wants to join. there is a 25 dollor gift card in one of the eggs. the rest is chocolate and other candy 🙂

    2. I know I’m not TK, so you’re getting your answer from someone else, but I’d prefer Easter and Passover to be in April. Better chance at good weather. They’re such meaningful holidays. Gripping narratives about suffering, conscience, loyalty, rebirth, and spirit. Easter and Passover are so interconnected. I realize there’s debate among scholars as to whether Jesus’s last supper was a seder ritual. I’m on the side of those who say it was. After all, the man was a rabbi. It’s nice for people to celebrate both holidays when it really looks spring-like (and that can happen in April, but is rare in March). I think Easter benefits even more from nice weather, as some of the activities are outdoors.

    3. I relate April to Easter strongly, but don’t mind the times it falls in March. A little different. Next year, April 20.

  5. I’m just re-posting what I had added to the previous entry about 15 minutes ago. Hadn’t realized TK had already posted a new blog:

    I look forward to meeting you, John. And I also look forward to meeting Coastal. I’ve enjoyed posts from you and Coastal.

    We the `WHW battalion’ will never see eye to eye on everything. Gosh, the world would be really boring if we all shared the same viewpoints. I’m sure I’ve said some things that rubbed people the wrong way, or with which people disagreed. That is reason for debate, but not for endless bickering.

    I do look forward to continuing to post my thoughts. However, my posts will start to dwindle as spring and summer approach. I usually come out of my shell to start posting again when I begin to see signs of autumn: the first mid August cool evenings, browning and yellowing of the leaves of the chestnut tree along with the ripening of the chestnuts, the arrival of chrysanthemums.

      1. Thanks Joshua…my posts will probably dwindle to some extent during the spring and summer months as well. Do stick around between now and mid-April though as hopefully there will be one final snow event during that timeframe. 🙂

        1. John, Philip: I’ll hang around. I actually read the blog from time to time in the spring and summer months.

          There are stretches of spring and summer I really do enjoy, especially the first couple of days after a vigorous cold front with thunderstorms has pulled through: 75-80 with little humidity and piercing blue skies in mid July is awesome.

    2. I have no problem with people disagreeing and I enjoy good-natured ribbing.

      I just want civility. Nice post. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK for your response on the previous blog. Very nice area you are in up there. I couldn’t help but smile when I saw Woods Hill Circle. It made me drive a little faster to the branch so I could log onto a computer and check in on the blog. 🙂

    1. What time was it you drove up there. You may very well have passed me about 50 feet away if I was back in town after working. 🙂

      1. It was around 9:30 when I got off Route 93 at Montvale. I kept thinking I might see you but then remembered that I have no clue what you look like. 🙂

  7. Thanks TK as always! You are the only met so far that has not forecasted mid-upper 50’s for next Thursday. The CPC continues to show below normal temps and close to normal precip.

    TK, do you still see snow potentials in the next 7-10+ days?

    1. Btw…I don’t know about anyone else here, but I still have my snow shovel available for duty. 😉

      2. Me too and with all of our friends leaving once the snow stops flying I’m no longer looking forward to spring …… 🙁

        1. Vicki…if we can squeeze in one last snow event the blog will get active again albeit briefly. Snow events this time of year don’t generally show up even in the short range. I don’t recall any spring snowstorm forecasted days in advance…1 or 2 days at the most. They usually involve “nowcasting”. 🙂

        2. I’ll be there in spirit. Promise. Not only that, periodically I’ll keep everyone informed with boring details on what the weather is like in places like Maastricht, Newcastle, Irkutsk, and Goose Bay. As a bonus, I’ll report on weather at the Union Glacier camp near the South Pole (headed toward a long, snowy, really cold winter as we speak): http://www.adventure-network.com/union-glacier-camp. Among other things, I hope to occasionally provide updates on the Antarctic Oscillation phases.

            1. At some point I’d love to hear your views on the Seder mentioned above also. I just ave to figure how since this is a weather blog 🙂

    2. I see a pattern that can turn suddenly and drop quick snow. It will take a bit of “perfect timing” for that to happen though.

      My snow shovels always hang close by until about May 1.

      1. i love winter snows and cold but i also love the heat of summer and the beach. sorry i like the extremes

        2. Also like to see the extremes. I remember that 103F two summers ago, that was unbelievable given that it was about 90F by 8 am.

  10. As soon as April starts I want spring to arrive. However I would not be upset if there was a snow event.
    Looks like my bracket may take a big hit with Syracuse up with under 4 minutes to play.

  11. EURO stays consistent on the NAO trending towards neutral, maybe even slightly positive 10 days out, as it goes back and forth with its impacts and the chances for a warmup vs less of a warmup in the days 7-10 period.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    More snow is melting in our yard and snowbanks albeit they are kind of dirty (need a fresh coating of snow? Nah! 🙂 But more birds are singing in morning now – regardless whether we get more snow – spring will eventually win over the winter! 🙂

  14. Already 40.4 degrees, a beautiful day, in Boston area doing my visits, I will be done with 1st rounds/visits by end if 1st week of April, I put my shovel away already but that’s me, opening pool 2 weekends after this weekend and I got 18 people on the guest, more than welcome to come, I don’t ever it snowing ever after I’ve opened the pool in the 14 yrs of opening the pool in mid April, so if a pattern like this is conducive of a snow event but then again we here that it can snow in April but rarley ever does, my sister in law moved here 5 yrs ago and she mentioned this to me about how everytime for the past 5 yrs the weather guy says we’ve seen snow in April granted its rare, but my sil says if it’s rare why mention it, hope all is well 😉

  18. The folks at AccuWeather including Henry Margusity, Joe Lundberg et al are saying that the arctic front for early-midweek will be the last cold shot of the season.

    All mets around here are calling for 50’s-near 60 for next Thursday but I have yet to see any indicators thereafter into NEXT weekend.

    1. I saw that Philip. Perhaps they are trying to say that after the midweek cold blast, a long sustained, wide covering cold airmass like we’ve been seeing, is coming to an end. I’m sure a quick hitting chill into the northeast or the northern Plains throughout April is likely, but probably not one that grips the eastern 2/3 rds of the US.

  19. I noticed that the melted precip for Logan on March 8th has changed to something much more reasonable, given that there was 10.8 inches of snow that day.

    As I recall, I think it was a highly suspicious .36 melted and now it reads a much more believable .94

    Only -1.1F for the month, 4 of the last 5 days have actually been slightly above normal. I guess March really is a climatologically cold month. I wont remember this next March 1st and will be diasppointed when its not 60F then either. 🙂

  20. As I think it cools down briefly it warms back up IMO, absolutely beautiful outside alot more clouds now than sun but it’s 57.2 degrees!!!

  21. 12z GFS has the Tuesday system back and brushing southern areas with some snow. We shall see. I am still leaning towards a dry but chilly day.

    Went out today without a jacket for the first time. Got in the car and it was so warm I had to open the windows. Note: this observation does not mean I think it won’t snow one more time 🙂

    1. Mark do you think it will just snow again? Or are you saying you think we have snow that accumulates of few inches? Thanks mark 🙂

      1. I am still maintaining that we will see one more widespread accumulating snowfall in SNE sometime in April. By accumulating, I mean a solid snow cover (so yes, at least a few inches) and by widespread, I mean the majority (but not all) areas of SNE.

        The GFS seems to be an outlier in bringing something up here on Tuesday but if it verified, the south coast and Cape might actually be in for an inch or two of snow.

        I’m still watching the 4/6 timeframe as well. There will be juicy storm over the southeast. Right now it looks out to sea but this is the type of thing that could trend north and sneak up on us.

        I’m not taking too much stock in the warmth the Euro shows in the 7-10 day range. One run its cold, the next its warm, and then it is cold again. It looks confused in the long range as does the GFS (as usual). It’s probably a change in seasons thing and the models are having difficulty in adjusting.

  22. Here’s what I mean about the models being confused.

    0z Euro for Sat 4/6:
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    12z Euro for Sat 4/6:
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    I realize there is a 12 hr difference here but the outcome as far as storm placement and cold vs warm really doesn’t look anything alike.

    The one thing to take from this is that there is still very cold air and snowpack nearby in Canada – it only takes one piece of that cold air dipping down in the northeast for a day or two timed right with a piece of energy coming in from the southwest and we end up with an April “surprise”. I agree with Philip that if we get something, it’s probably not going to get picked up by the long range models. It will spring up on us 3 or 4 days in advance.

    1. Yeah IMO as we can see snow at this time I believe any appreciable amounts r done though well north and west of Boston and into vt nh chances r greater IMO, nice chatting with ya and just watching trends

  23. I agree the odds are against snow and I am going out on a bit of a limb predicting it. A few shots of colder air are going to happen over the next couple weeks and there will be pieces of energy coming through. Timings got to be perfect though for it to come together.

    Climatology would favor north and west of Boston as you say. But if something like the Tuesday event happened, the south coast would actually get it. It can happen.

  25. Impressive longshot. Tx

    Even with the cloud cover its still mid 50s here. There’s been a breeze but its a lovely day.

  27. Vicki…just took a ride through the waterfront on the way to football. Didn’t see anyone I recognized. :-). Hope they are having fun!

    1. Awww I was hoping you would. They were looking for you. Lobster hut then Ice cream at the place you and tom like and cupcakes were on the agenda. You sure did arrange for some Great weather for them 🙂

  28. The 6-10 day CPC outlook continues to show below normal temps and then normal temps in the 8-14 day range. This is starting to get harder to believe since we have been averaging above normal the past few days and into this weekend through Monday then returning again next Thursday and Friday. NWS says a cold front will approach next Saturday.

    I still hope we can get one last good snowfall by mid-April. We will see. 🙂

  29. Okay, I couldn’t stay away. I missed the blog too much. I’m giving three cheers for Spring! It’s my favorite season along with Summer. The earth is coming back to life, preparing itself for plants to bloom. It signifies the renewal of living things. Happy Easter, Happy Passover and Happy Festivus (for the rest of us)!

    1. Now that is wonderful news. Happy Easter, happy Passover and happy Festivus to you and everyone here :D.

  30. Tonight is the full worm moon. I know Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon following the march equinox. Does anyone know what determines the date for the first full day of Passover?

    The full moon this month was the worm moon. “Native Americans called this last full moon of winter the Worm Moon after the worm trails that would appear in the newly thawed ground.”

    1. Wrong tonight is not the full worm moon. I think it was full two days ago. I meant to say this month

  32. Partly to mostly cloudy temp is a balmy 51.7 degrees here in Wrentham and Boston water temp is finally rebounding and is up to 41.1 degrees, still a seabreeze on the immediate coast today, signs of spring 🙂 have a good night all

  33. Sue (replying to your earlier message)… I was driving east down Montvale Ave toward I-93 about that time, so we probably passed each other.

    Instead of describing myself for the next time you pass me in the car, you can just look at this photo of me in my car while being pursued by a space ship apparently…

    Oh and pardon the John Lennon sunglasses. Those space ships are BRIGHT.

    https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/2768_103583582264_3929252_n.jpg

Comments are closed.