Cold Coming Back

145 Comments

5:38PM

After a mild and fair weekend and first 2/3 of Monday to end March and start April, we’re in a transition as a strong cold front crosses the region from west to east to end Monday. During the night, cold air will rush in, and will be with southern New England into the middle of the week as high pressure builds in but is centered west of the region, allowing a northwesterly flow and direct access by the cold air. High pressure sinks to the south by Thursday and moderation will be swift, but will be cut off by another cold front Friday. Along with this we’ll be watching the track of a wave of low pressure passing south of the area Friday night which could bring some rain and even a little snow if timing is right. Looking ahead to next weekend, still no changes from the previous outlook – a drier weekend with a chilly start and a warmer finish.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

THROUGH SUNSET/TWILIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms pushing across east coastal and southeastern MA, lastly across Cape Cod and the Islands. Brief downpours possible. Temperatures falling into and through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, with some gusts to 40+ MPH possible.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 54.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers day, a period of rain or snow at night. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 30. High 51.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 38. High 64.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day rain showers. Low 46. High 62.

145 thoughts on “Cold Coming Back”

  2. Tk is that overnight lows in Boston low 20’s, I’m thinking 29 or 30 degrees for Boston is more like it tonight for lows imo,, are you planning on sky’s clearing?

    1. Yes, it will be clear in Boston by about 9PM and the city should be about 27 or 28 by morning.

  3. 29 more days of classes
    33 more days including finals.of needing to go to the college
    46 days including weekends and finals
    a professional day this friday.
    on that 46 the day after the last final i want it 85 or hotter and to stay that way until october
    leamonade or punch sounds good to me with some streetlight manifesto. and hanging out with my mom and not needing to ask her for things other than just talking and gardening togeather. and then waving at my brothers while they do homework until june 26th. 😛 i have almost an entire month before they have their break.

  4. Warm to almost hot temps progged to slam our area next week. Anyone eating their crow yet?? 😉

    5. I’d buy easily it if we were not next to the Atlantic Ocean. It may not be happening that easily…

  5. I wonder how tall the cumulus clouds got today. They looked pretty decent on the visible satellite. Certainly not the 40,000 to 55,000 ft monsters of the summertime, but perhaps 25,000 to 30,000 ft ?

    1. Most of those tops were probably in the 18,000-23,000 range but the bigger storms were over 25K.

  6. Temp is down to 40.7 degrees, down from a high temp of 59.4 degrees earlier this afternoon

    1. Boston ocean temp is a chilly 41.8 degrees, Maine coast still in the upper 30’s, and south on the ri and ct coast ocean temps are in the mid 40’s

      1. This may have a significant impact on the warm to hot spell, or lack thereof, next week.

          1. I also like how it squashes the cumulus clouds……. it can be partly to mostly cloudy with a lot of fair weather cumulus 10 miles inland and with a light seabreeze, its completely sunny at the beach.

  7. I shall go on record as saying I do not agree with CPC’s temperature and precipitation outlook for both 6-10 and 8-14 day periods for New England.

    In my opinion, they are forecasting it to be too warm (not taking into account air masses modified by continued abundant snowcover in northern New England and Canada), and not dry enough (mean NW flow aloft due to a mean trough position in the Canadian Maritimes).

    This pattern is conducive to low level cold from refrigerated land just to our north, as well as ocean-induced chill when winds turn onshore.

    FORGET the high heights on some of the runs. Even if those were not being over-forecast (and they likely are), 500 mb ridge in the Spring does not always mean a big warm-up, especially in eastern New England.

    1. Sounds like a description of a typical New England Spring. 😀

      Btw, in my area, we experienced a very nice first Thunderstorm of
      the season. Many bolts of lightening and loud booming cracks of thunder along
      with downpours. I had to walk to my car at 5PM and when those rain drops hit my forehead, they were so cold it gave me an ice cream headache. I thought it was going to snow. 😀

      Tk, think there is at least a small chance of a surprise Friday night? 😀

      1. Yes.

        There is a chance of snow Friday night. For one thing the models are under-forecasting the cold.

  8. http://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/avalanche-safety/camping/hermit-lake-shelters/

    Click on recent photos (4-7 days old) to see the snow depth in the “bowl” as well as the entire ravine area. No sign of spring there. It’s 9 degrees on top of Mt. Washington and blowing snow (only 4 inches fell this afternoon on the summit; my guess is more fell to the west), with sustained winds of 81 mph, gusting to 100 mph. Translates to a wind chill of below -20, and tonight that will go down to -35, with the real temperature at around -3.

    1. I’m amazed that they had/have the spring skiing as late as the end of May with avalanche danger.

  9. Look for a pattern in the 6-14 day range where there are wide temp differences in SNE. Temps inside 495 to the coast could be 8 to 15 degrees cooler than temps in Hartford/Springfield/and even into southern Vermont.

  10. I remember those days when with those big temperature differences when I was going to college up there in Massachusetts.

  11. The sky was absolutely GORGEOUS today/tonight. Driving through, and in between the rain was incredible. It’s so neat to see the dark clouds above you, and see where the pockets of blue sky are, and then suddenly…the rain lightens…and it is gone.

  12. Returning in some capacity in the long term, the southeast ridge ……. Good for opportunities to warm up some, not so good as it will increase severe weather opportunities in the south.

    1. Hi, retrac, I can see that on doppler radar. And when I look out to the westnorthwest from here in Sudbury I see a lot of what I think are stratocumulus clouds – moving southeast – and the sun is fading. Thunderstorms one day – snow showers the next! 🙂

  15. Even though it is chilly, it’s an absolutely beautiful morning.

    Sure looking like the Friday system wants to head out to sea South and East of us.
    Models are trending that way and now following the lead of the King. The King never
    wavered on the OTS solution. 😀

    We’ll see if there are any last minute changes.

  16. Not a bad day at all today, finishing visits in Boston area, sun when shining through feels nice, anyone still think there’s a chance of snow for May? I don’t want to take my plows off until someone gives me the all clear haha kidding, winter is and has been in the rear view mirror for weeks now, good day all 🙂

  17. Not this weekend but next weekend the pool opens!!! I have a guest list of about 20, I’m thinking it will be in the 60’s that weekend, more times than not it’s usually mild/warm out by that time, gotta go talk to everyone later and eat crow 🙂

  18. 22 at my house this morning with a wind chill in the teens and scattered snow showers in the air. Winter is not in the rear view mirror quite yet. It is COLD out there this morning!

    Models are trending colder for the late week system as well but also further out to sea. Glancing blow for the southeast areas as it looks now and oddly enough, it could be Charlie’s area that stands the best chance of seeing some flakes 🙂

    1. And 80 for the air temp too according to the map I posted below!

      I’ll be in Charleston, SC next weekend – looking nice and toasty down there as well 🙂

      1. We so want to return to Charleston. Will you be in the city or in the surrounding area? My inlaws lived in Mt Pleasant at Snee Farm. We drove down every spring. When the entire family went for a reunion they would rent a home on Isle of Palms. Enjoy your visit. I’ll be thinking of you. Check your suitcases. You may have one or both of my daughters tucked inside 🙂

        1. That’s where we are going – the Isles of Palms and staying at the Wild Dunes Resort. Just going with a few guy friends for an extended four day weekend – we may do some deep sea fishing and golfing. Looking forward to it – I have never been there!

          1. We stayed at Wild Dunes several times. It is lovely. They lived at Snee Farm which is about a five minute drive or less from Isle of Palms. You will have a wonderful time.

  21. I echo Mark’s statement above. It got quite cold, even in the city. To have ice formation (puddles turning into fairly solid ice) this late in the season in the city is quite something. The butterflies and insects that were out this past weekend are not having fun right now. In fact, the ones who ventured out – were hatched and then displayed teenage, risk-seeking behavior by taking in the sights and sounds of the city rather than waiting a week or so – may have come out a little too soon. I’m OK with it. I love almost all creatures, and those who know me would say “Josh wouldn’t harm a fly.” But little do they know, Josh would most definitely harm a fly, a mosquito, an ant, a bee, a spider. I have no killer instinct other than when it comes to insects. I apologize to all entomologists on this blog.

  22. We had a snow shower about an hour ago – does that qualify as the storm we are waiting for 😉 Just checking 😯

      1. hmmmmmm – well if the flakes are actually countable my guess is that even I couldn’t go with plowable.

        Love the poll idea Sue…..do you think August is safe? I was thinking we’d better start in July???? 😉

        Charlie – it is all in fun – you do have a great sense of humor!

  23. I’d like to propose we start a new contest: What date in August will Charlie declare that summer is over and there will be no more 90 degree days? 🙂

          1. Perfect….make sure you have a computer for OS so he can watch the radar as we sit in our lounge chairs while the snow falls.

  24. Were done with accumulating snow but as I said a few days ago I would not rule out flakes in the air for early April.
    I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.

  25. MikeyMac 79.0
    John 76.5
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    North 55.7
    tjammer 54.0
    Hadi 53.9
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Kirbet 48.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    TK 39.3
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    JimmyJames 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Matt 30.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

    I have a total of 62.3 but added quickly – can someone please confirm that

  27. Charlie I enjoyed this winter. We did not get skunked and had one big snowstorm which was fun to track and watch it as it was happening especially seeing snowfall come down in parts of CT at the rate of 4 5 inches an hour.

  28. Sue, love your contest idea!

    So, it’s 1 lonely degree on top of Mt. Washington, light snow (another couple of inches fell overnight), 55 mph sustained wind with gusts up to 65 mph making it feel like -30. Nice!

    1. Not for Nothing, but this represents a BIG change from the 06Z run, where
      the DGEX extension showed a total qpf of about .1 inch. This run shows
      .25 to .5 before it is even complete.

      As others post on this blog: “Just saying….” 😀

      1. 0Z FIM has nearly 1 inch qpf, with 850MB temps below
        freezing. Will look at 12Z when available. Should be interesting.

        It’s New England, don’t let your guard down for a moment. 😀

  33. Sure hopes it warms a bit for the Annual Herring Run Clean Up in Weymouth on Saturday at 0800 at the corner of Commercial and Broad Streets. We will have hot coffee and donuts, hot chocolate and water for all the volunteers.

    Thanks,
    Cheerio, Merlin

    1. hahahahahaha – I made a bet (with myself) as to how long it would take you to post the winner. I won…………of course I couldn’t lose could I 🙂 🙂 🙂

  41. It’s been awhile since I’ve posted on here. Fascinating to watch the change of seasons and how rapid it can occur. I will be home on break next week, and the weather could be in my favor beginning Sunday. EURO really warms us up next week while the GFS only has Sunday being the nice day. A far contrast to the current temperature at Lyndon of 25 degrees with isolated snow showers/squalls.
    Both AO and NAO are trending positive, so the cooler times will start to fade and more spring like weather should take over.
    I don’t think the 12z GFS has a clue of what to do for the long range pattern.

      1. Very lively, becomes hard to follow. I have never been more ready for spring. Bring on the warmer weather! (Despite that despicable sea breeze).

  42. Hmmm
    12Z Euro is MEGA juicy!!!
    A bit closer with extremely sharp cut off to precip.
    Just a bit outside.
    500Mb, 300Mb and 200mb wind fields look great, UNTIL they get
    near our latitude and then they ALL take a right hand turn Due East.
    The net result is the system stays “Just” off shore, but NOT by
    very much at all. Those upper wind fields look dangerous. Just the
    slight turning in those winds up here and that system is in here. 😀

  44. BTW we have snow flakes falling in the Woburn area too. Most of the snow showers (and these are born of the Great Lakes) are drying up before reaching ground, but a few are making it all the way down. Even had a few flakes fly at Logan the last hour or 2. Temperature has struggled and barely hit 40 out there at the airport. It’s a cold and windy April day and winter is not quite finished with us yet, ladies and gents.

    1. I was in Somerville today and I thought I was seeing things for moment when I saw flakes. It was quite brisk walking around Davis Square.

      2. We seem to be in the same area a lot. I passed thru your home town the other day and I will be in Davis Sq. Somerville for a short time tonight. 🙂

  45. 12z Euro has sided with the 12z GFS for next week. Well let’s enjoy Sunday because day is still looking good. And a snow squall has just moved in…

  46. It may be my only correct prediction this year, but I don’t buy now nor did I buy before a spring warm-up lasting more than a day or two. I do feel we head straight into summer sometime in late May. I do not think this summer will be hot, with less than 5 days above 90. Of course, this is wishful thinking, but I’m putting it out there.

  48. A trace of snow was recorded at Logan today. There must have been a good snow squall at the airport because when I was out and about in the city, nothing more than very quick snow showers which if warmer would have been more like sprinkles (maybe all of 1 minute long if that).

    TK…What do you think of this new term…”snow sprinkles”? 🙂

      1. I was thinking about a term that would be less than a snow “shower” but more than a “flurry” but I guess it doesn’t work, LOL. Oh well. 😀

  49. Almost done with 1st visits, got about 175 customers left, then onto 2nd visits which start about 3rd week of April, busy busy

  50. Some models paint a 65-70 degrees 10 days from now, will see since its far away but that would be nice for when opening pool 🙂

  51. Brett Anerson’s recent blog map has much of Canada (I would say at least 85%) very cold for most of the month. Perhaps it could make things interesting at times?

  52. I do know this, I believe that Logan saw its last accumulating snow about 2 weeks ago, if your right tk, ill buy u dinner at next woodshill meeting, and I’ll eat crow, but i truly think alot are chasing the carrot IMO will see

    1. Climatology doesn’t lie.

      We may be done with accumulating snow in much of the region, but weather is too fickle to call it done with any confidence.

      1. It felt good when I was out today. Nice air to breath. Which reminds me…..we haven’t seen captain in a bit 🙁

        2. Save for the long amt of daylight, it was winter for sure. That virga look to the cumulus clouds really looks winterlike.

    1. What do you think of them trading for Jagr ….. I didnt even know he still played, guess I hadnt seen Dallas much. I remember him and Lemieux ruling the league in the early 90s.

      1. He’s over 40 years old BUT when his team is on a power play he is still one of the best and the B’s have had power play problems all year. They’rw good at defending the power but bad at scoring when they have the advantage. Jagr gives them help with this.

  55. He played over in Europe for a while then returned and has played for the Rangers, Flyers, Stars, and now Bruins.

  56. Well, while we freeze at the mid and lower latitudes, interesting happenings in the arctic ocean. Large cracking of the ice north of Alaska, some of the satellite videos of this I’ve been seeing are amazing.

  57. Charlie just emailed me and said he can’t get in the blog. Is there a problem you are aware of TK?

    1. He’s been banished with the trolls. 🙂 Just kidding Charlie…we’d be lost without you!

  58. Goose egg on top of Mt. Washington, with sustained wind of 88 mph, gusting to 106 mph. Real feel = – 35. Oh, forgot to mention blowing snow. This is some cold front. Can you imagine if this was January. The base is `warmer’ with temps during the day around 30 (elevation 2000 feet) and in the lower teens at night (snow depth at the base is between 20 and 25 inches). I’m guessing the snow depth at Hermit Lake Shelter (elevation close to 4000 feet) is between 40 and 50 inches.

  59. If your heart is in good shape you can turn on the B’s, otherwise forget it.

    What a game!

  60. B’s win 3-2! Just unreal — the 2 teams had nearly 100 shots on goal. Game of the season.

    1. 22 days of plus 90 at logan? are u okay charlie lol? i HIGHLY doubt that, however its your opinion and who knows…

Comments are closed.