Don’t Be Fooled

133 Comments

7:43AM

Many people this time of year ask the question: “Where is Spring?” The answer I give is: “This IS Spring”. I am not sure where the idea that Spring in New England brings consistent warmth and fair weather came from. But other than in a very anomalous pattern, it could not be further from the truth, and again that will be shown in the coming several days as a variety of weather systems and air masses impact this area including cold winds between high pressure and low pressure funneling a late-season arctic airmass across the region today, milder winds around the back side of high pressure Thursday, a wave of low pressure passing just to the south of the region Friday and Friday night, the cool side of high pressure Saturday, the warmer side of it again Sunday, and more changes early next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny start then passing clouds. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds vanish early. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain, may change to mix/snow before ending late at night. Low 38. High 53.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 63.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 54.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 52.

133 thoughts on “Don’t Be Fooled”

  1. Thanks TK. I think we have been spoiled at some points over the last several years with some early warmth and only remembering the warmth and not the cold!

    1. Hey North…as you can imagine, I am calling UNCLE on the winds. I have more leaves in my driveway than I did all Fall. 🙁

  2. There will be no snowstorm this week and no accumulating snow for the rest of the season :D. Enjoy spring. The warmer weather will be coming. We will see teases and glimpses of 60s at times next week. If a front cooperates and stays to our north, 70 isn’t out of the question! Bottom line…Snow is over 😀 😀 😀

  3. Tk ik you said winter is not over ladies and gents, I’m wondering what you meant by that, I know you were thinking 2 more snowstorms and yesterday said its coming I think, I still think overall this cooler pattern is gone after today and back into the 50’s and with a warm sun it’s a beauty, whenever the suns out it can’t be cold, thanks for all your hard work tk I’m seeing warm weather next week maybe 72-73 degrees away from coast, love it, I love spring in New England, it really happens so fast, you go from brown in early March to green landscape by the end of April,

    1. 72-73 is a long shot and if 70 does occur it will be well away from the coast as in the the CT river valley. Mid and upper 60s central ma, low 60s eastern ma and l0w 50s coast. Will see 😀

  4. Thanks TK! What do you think about Friday night in Plymouth as far as rain? My son has his first flag football game at 6:30 and it seems like the first game of every spring season is called off due to rain.

      1. I LOVE to watch my son play. He is only 7 and just moved up to the older league and I can’t wait to see his first game. It is much more structured than the 5-6 year old league.

  5. I’m trying to figure out why out on the streets all people are talking about is how spring is here and everyone’s happy and everyone’s doing spring clean up along with taking down plow poles and then u come on here and there’s endless possibilities of snow chances and 60’s and 70’s are not anywhere to be found when in actuality I think a BIG WARM up next week is in store, I’ve already had 3 people say they see 60’s and 70’s on the 7 day outlook, everyone’s getting ready 🙂

    1. I think spring is here. But I also think people forget it can snow in spring. Significantly. Snow may well be over……or it may not. I think it’s more logical to say there may be more snow than there won’t be. Nothing is a given

      1. I think the reason why people forget that it can snow in April is bc it’s so rare, I think it’s much more Likley to hit 60 or 70 degrees in April than it is to get 1 or 2 inches of snow, ask anyone thats not on this wonderful blog when the last big snowstorm was in April, most will say the 97 April fools blizzard over 16yrs ago, just my take, last year they planted flowers at my local McDonald’s last yr on the 1st weekend in April, I’m curious to see if they do that again this year, hope your having a great day Vicki, I’m so backed up with work ugh

    2. The problem with spring around here is that warmer temps aren’t consistent. Spring isn’t a gradual uniform warm-up. Its like darts. One day its 70, and the next its 40. The 70 is the bulls eye and most darts don’t even come close (especially if its me throwing them). Lets face it, majority of spring days in NE are not pleasant.

  6. I’ve had enough now! It felt like January last night.

    Snowcover at 50% at my house with 6″ or so where it exists. Driveway snowbank still near 3′! ughhhhh!

  7. Good morning. Busy day at work. Just checking in for the first time.

    Friday “appears” to be a glancing shot at best. Although it looks like the
    Euro has crept a bit farther North, however, the NAM which had a hit, now
    has edged mostly OTS. 😀

    I’ll believe 70 around here WHEN I see it and not one minute before. 😀

    Just enjoy each day as it comes. Going out to my car this morning was almost
    awe inspiring. Just absolutely beautiful. Didn’t notice the cold at all. It felt great.
    Car thermometer was reading 34 on the way in to work.

    GO SOX!!!

    Also, one last note: I sure hope Bergeron is OK. I fear a season ending concussion.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Still some snowbanks around our yard. Feels more like a March day than an April day with the winds.

    Is it safe, do you think, to say that we won’t see any temps. in the single digits until nxt. winter? 🙂

    1. Yes Rainshine…no more single digits for temps even for overnight lows. I am certainly not TK but even that is a safe bet. 🙂

      1. Philip, thanks! I figured as much – just checking; not sure if any temp. that low was recorded in April – something maybe for me to look up!

  9. As The Who said “don’t get fooled again … meet the new boss, … same as the old boss.” The boss of spring in SNE is Mr. or Mrs. Fickle. TK is correct to point out that this spring is the norm, and last year was an anomaly. I am also very surprised when people say “where’s spring?” Consistent warmth in April, or even May for longer than a 3 day stretch, is almost like hoping for a miracle. We’ll get warmer than this, yes. We’ll hit 60 soon, yes. Maybe even a pick of the week day somewhere thrown in. But, next week is not going to be remotely warm, unless we think 50s is warm. In fact, I think we’ll miss seeing the sun parts of next week with cool rain and some easterly breezes keeping the coast rather raw and dismal. This is why I enjoy today’s weather and yesterday’s so much more than cool rain or gray skies and upper 40s to low 50s. The latter is just plain awful, and we’re due to get a lot of that sometime soon.

    1. I agree somewhat though we’ve had 2 60 degree days already in the last week, I would say we will be 60+ 10 times this April IMO, so far my town has highs of 60.4, 40.9, and today will say 48 degrees, and yes 50’s in April with sun out is warm IMO,

  11. Charlie I think spring is here, just depends on what you think spring in NE is. I think April always holds a slim chance of snow and that’s what we are talking about.

  12. Big warm ups are forecasted a lot in SNE during April a week out, but doesn’t usually happen. I would LOVE to see 70’s but the chance is pretty small this early in April.

  13. If Bergeron is out for the season, there goes the season. I should say there go our chances at winning it all. He’s our MVP. Terrific insight, always seems to win the faceoffs, rarely loses the puck or passes errantly. Also appears to be a great person. A Quebec City native. He’s used to long, cold winters. He was born in a town just north of QC. As a kid, he probably skated across the St. Lawrence to the city.

  14. TK, quite a difference between you and Barry for high temps on Tues.

    TK=52
    Barry=70

    I just checked the line in Las Vegas and they have TK as a 3 to 1 favorite.

      1. unless a back door front comes in 🙂 which we knows happens often. But I am sure it will be 70’s at your house no matter 🙂

  17. I was curious to see how often it snows in April. I used Wunder and went back just two decades for lack of time. Looks as if it snows just over 50% of the time in April from 1992-2012

    1992 – 11-0.05; 16-0.13
    1993 – none
    1994 – none
    1995 – none
    1996 – 7-0.06; 8-0.10; 9-0.09; 10-0.17
    1997 – 1-0.22; 9-0.09
    1998 – none
    1999 – none
    2000 – 9-0.09
    2001 – 18-0.13
    2002 – 5-0.20; 23-0.17; 25-0.07
    2003 – 1-0.22; 4-0.18; 7-0.06; 8-0.10; 9-0.09
    2004 – 5-0.20
    2005 – 12-0.05
    2006 – 5-0.20
    2007 – 4-0.18; 12-0.05
    2008 – none
    2009 – none
    2010 – none
    2011 – 1-0.22
    2012 – none

  18. April is the most changeable month in the whole year IMO. We can get snow ~50% of the time, and it hits 90 at around the same frequency. I dont know any other month with that much variance in weather.

    1. Agreed Ace – I’ve been looking at the average temps for April too and they are pretty much the same from year to year with wide swings from day to night as well as day to day

  19. Remains very cold (3F; wind chill -29F) and very windy (85 mph; gusts near 100 mph) atop Mt. Washington. I applied to do a 10-14 day volunteering job up there. Haven’t heard from the OBS people. Apparently a long line of wacky people like myself who want to be up there when it’s really cold, snowy, and windy. I wish it had happened this week. Oh well …

  20. Don’t know if anyone posted this yet but there is a RED FLAG warning for the area because of the high winds and dry conditions out there. High probability that if a brush fire gets going that it will spread rapidly. Be careful with combustibles

    1. Thanks! I actually meant to mention the rapidly increasing fire danger due to the drying ground, no vegetation, and gusty wind, but I rushed this morning’s update… 🙂

  21. One thing I’m noticing as this blog tk gave us grows, is that how different it really is across tk’s forecasted areas from RI coast to inland location of southern NH, they r truly different climates, I drive from southern RI to the West and north west suburbs of Boston about once a week and everything from the way people talk to the weather they receive are very different, it’s actually fascinating how much changes in just 40 or 50 miles, forsythias r blooming and r yellow in Bristol RI and NW of Boston r just buds still, and this is just 1 difference of about 10, enjoy the day 🙂

    1. So true, Charlie. Especially this year, as noted by you several times (and me once or twice).

      1. Totally especially this year, some of you should drive from Boston to south of providence to see it, it’s pretty cool

    2. Maybe that’s why some people think you’re crazy sometimes Charlie. 🙂 You live in the Equatorial Doldrums and they are in the Frozen Tundra. 😉

  22. I think this airmass is impressive. Its struggling to get to the mid 40s with full sunshine and I’d think one could get a sunburn without any sunscreen in no more than a half an hour.

  23. Just looked at 12z GFS.

    Winter is over IMHO. No more snow – and I was sure it would snow again too.

    Big Atlantic ridge looks to start setting up shop. (Don’t see much backdoor B.S. either)

    TK may have to talk some sense into me but I’m “fooled” at the moment.

    1. That would be all well and good other than that GFS likely won’t come very close to verifying. 🙂

      1. Thanks for the reality check TK as I do hate the GFS (except when it shows what I want to see) 🙂

        1. I actually think the GFS has a decent depiction of the pattern – that will show up later in May. 😉

  24. Sue… Mostly cloudy. Threat of some light rain shower activity but with LUCK, the main area stays just to the south.

    Charlie… 1 or 2 60 degree days to this point has no correlation to the lack of snowflakes for the remainder of April. As you know, it was 63 in Boston the day before the April Fools Blizzard in 1997. It was in the 50s about 36 hours before the April 6 powder blizzard in 1982. Spring weather in this part of the country is more fickle than any other time of year, even mid winter.

    All… As much as Barry is my favorite met on TV (along with Harvey of course), I’m going to disagree on the 70 for Tuesday. But to be fair to Barry, it is a day 7 forecast, and we know that they HAVE to put something there.

    I say Boston will be no higher than 55 at noon next Tuesday. Maybe I’ll email him for a little gentleman’s bet. 🙂

    1. Thanks TK. Would you say TV mets do the same thing in spring as in winter to increase ratings by giving a tease look into the future and give the possibility of a 70 degree day (seems to be the magic # in early spring) much like the possibility of a snowstorm 7 days out?

    3. TK I checked the average high temps for the years above that had snow. In line with your comment – which of course I know doesn’t need clarification but thought it was fun – below are the average high temps for each of those years in April. Temperatures as you know swung widely in every April to make the average in the mid-60s. The vast majority of average lows were just above freezing. This is for Bedford, MA.

      1992 – 66
      1996 – 70
      1997 – 65
      2002 – 62
      2003 – 68
      2004 – 66
      2005 – 68
      2006 – 64
      2007 – 68
      2011 – 66

  25. I dont quite understand the fire advisory today. I know its windy and the air is dry, but the ground is still wet. Not only from the very heavy showers and thunderstorms the other day, but the moisture from the ground in the areas where the ground is thawing. My yard is soaked.

    1. Ace my yard is like a mud pit also but we went for a walk in the woods in Uxbridge on Easter and it was really dry underfoot. I haven’t been in the woods behind our house but suspect it will be the same.

  27. I say the highs both Mon and Tue will be a balmy 65-70 degrees IMO, there will be no seabreeze unless your within 5 miles of coast

    1. I can see Hingham at 46 degrees with Westwood 68 degrees next Mon and Tue, it looks beautiful

  28. Looking at the long range I wonder if tonight is the last time Boston goes below freezing until next Nov?

  29. Today with those deep blue skies and gusty winds very much reminded me of April 5, 1982 which was the day before the April 6-7 snowstorm. Boston received just over 13″ if I am not mistaken. Temps for that storm were no higher than 20 degrees IIRC.

  30. My crocuses in spite of being out in full sunshine were closed shut for the second day in a row.

    1. That’s the difference Charlie was talking about. My crocuses have been and gone weeks ago. My daffodils are in full bloom. We had them of the Easter table. Exactly one month earlier than 20 years ago.

  31. I just heard some interesting Red Sox trivia via the radio. The Sox have not begun a season at 2-0 since 1999. We are most certainly due!

  35. Vicki… Awesome info today. Thanks!

    And, no the snow threat is not over. I follow climate and if this pattern and season tells me anything, it tells me don’t turn your back on winter weather during the month of April.

    Does it mean it WILL happen? No.

    But to completely discount the possibility? Not a good move.

    2. As I do agree with you tk, you even have said yourself with everyone taking the plow stakes out, here sure we watch models and are interested in it but out in the public most do not put April and snow together unless we get a memorable April snowstorm similar to 97, my nephew that 16 looks at me crazy and tells me that’ll never happen again and I laugh but I guess what I’m saying unfortunately alot turn there backs to winter in April unfortunatley will get burned 1 of these years,, thanks for the hardwork as always 🙂

    3. According to Brett Anderson’s recent blog, much of Canada is forecast to be cold for most of April. Is that one reason for your concern about snow TK?

  36. Hadi the most populated county in massachusetts is middlesex cty all inland, half the population is not 5 miles within the coast at least not me or Vicki or retrac or mark or tk or ace master well u get the point 🙂

        1. I like the coast when it is warmer and inland when it is warmer 🙂 In spring I like being inland on those chilly seabreeze days.

  37. Clearly I was being funny but you could say that 3/4 of the commonwealths population is probably within 25 miles of the coast.

  38. I am setting up Camp Spring! Instead of marshmallows, we toast peeps. Keep that icky snow away from the camp. We are only interested in lovely spring weather and the transition into Summer.

      1. I love listening to the peepers! Unfortunately, I haven’t heard any yet. I will have to open the windows and try to listen more. But where we live is more woods and not that close to any water – I think the peepers like to be closer to some water.

        1. rainshine we don’t have any either and I also love the sound….their “song” really is the promise of spring. I heard them in Ashland the other night and my daughter called all excited last week to say they could hear them in Uxbridge.

  39. I am with you Lisa. I am done with cold 🙂 I will get warm weather either way as I head to Florida late next week and then Cuba at the end of the month.

          1. That’ll take some of the pressure off of Mark – so far my entire family is accompanying him 🙂

  41. Rain now in parts of central Florida. Good size complex of thunderstorms in the Gulf pushing east. Hopefully the rain now will help to stablize the air and there won’t be a lot of what I call self destructing sunshine to destablize the atmosphere there.

  42. Enjoy the next several days of Spring with temps generally in the 50’s and 60’s. We may be dealing with a back door cold front late next week which could welcome cooler temps and wetter conditions. Overall, no snow in sight! 😀

  43. Clearly next week will be typical of Spring in NE, raw and cold. BB backing off his 70’s for next week as some of expected. Boston will be lucky to break into the mid 50’s this weekend.

    1. Yes this is very typical of spring at times, raw cool drizzly, not a big fan but Raw cool drizzly with mild stretches are very typical of April,, take it easy hadi

  44. Longshot I am still worried about late next in FL as well, looks like a front coming through next Friday and who knows if its hangs back or plows through. We shall see!!!

  45. Just checking the Herring Run Records in Weymouth (clean up on Saturday, Jackson Sq. 0800) and found it snowed a lot in April over the years the latest on April 26, 1993 of 3 inches and the most April 1, 1997 of 27 inches. Did I mention the annual clean up on Saturday April 6th at 0800?

  46. April 6, 1982 comes to mind and I remember hearing how powdry the snow was for an April storm and late April 1987.
    With that said I don’t think there will be accumulating snow in April 2013.

  47. I was not alive in 1982 and the April 1987 I just turned 3 years old so I don’t remember that one.
    Of course May, 9, 1977 the latest measurable snowfall for Boston recording half an inch of snow.

  49. Hi All,

    Just checking in. Insanely busy at the office the last several days!
    I miss being here.

    Really nice out there. Too bad tomorrow’s system is OTS.

    At this point, I’m ready for Spring and I hope that doesn’t mean
    a surprise sometime down the road. 😀

Comments are closed.