Boston Area Forecast

168 Comments

12:30 AM

Not a lot of change from the last discussion, so today we’ll just post up a new local forecast and look things over again as we get closer to potential rain & snow as the new month begins… Still way too early for any details on the late week storm threat. Models continue to be all over the place and in this case I find it better to just stick with the same wording, as there is plenty of time to work things out.

Forecast details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

168 thoughts on “Boston Area Forecast”

  3. Coastal the models ate all over the place. The 00z GFS has an inside track and the 6Z GFS shows a monster storm for SNE. The NAM is way south and the EURO is east of the 00z GFS. What gives.? Who knows right now. TK update was perfect.

  5. I just need the storm to golf off until after 8 am on Friday so I can get of town.
    On a side note I guess the weather gods are with me for Florida bc this week has been showery and starting Friday looks beautiful for the next week or so.

  7. I can see, at some point Friday or Saturday, it being…….

    Montreal, Canada…….Sunny, 50F
    Burlington, VT…….Partly Sunny, 42F
    Concord, NH…..Light Rain, 37F
    Somewhere in the Southern NH to Northern RI Belt…. Heavy Wet Snow, 33F

    Have a good day everyone !!

  9. Hadi I have been contacted by retrac but I have not idea how to gauge him. Any questions I should ask?

  10. Hi, all – I was busy all weekend so I just got a chance to look at some models. I look at the GFS model and it looks like it isn’t going to miss us. I then looked at the NAM and that looks like a complete miss. I am looking at Day 4 of the 00UTC. This is the first time I am making a prediction on my own – so forgive me if I am way off. I found a site for EURO but I don’t think it is right because it doesn’t show the models like GFS and NAM. I go to NCEP Central Operations from the National Weather Services.

    In any case, it will be interesting to see how it all works out. My own personal feeling is that we are definitely going to get something – prob’ly a mix, but no major snowstorm. (doesn’t mean I don’t like snow, ‘though I have had enough for this year!)

    Hadi – enjoy your vacation to Florida! And have a great day everyone!

  11. It’s hard to discount anything at this point..UK/GGEM/GFS/EURO all show a smilar storm with some minor differences. NWS is also on board for a storm just not set on any details.

  12. Coastal ask him to email you the GFS soundings, if he does it then you know its him bc not many know how to do that

  13. Wish I could offer a clear cut solution. I just don’t have one right now. Here are my thoughts this morning. I could go through all the model variations, but they are so many at this point, what is the point? There is a reasonable shot at accumulating snow in SNE. However, to me with the neutral to slightly positive NAO and AO, and a Neutral PNA, the set up is not right for a SNE April 1 snowstorm. Where is the forcing mechanism to keep the cold air in? The snow is going to have to be generated by dynamic cooling from the falling precip. That is possible, as I think there will me much colder air aloft and I think the precip will fall hard at times, but with more of the precip looking to fall in the daytime hours Friday with even the cold ECWMF showing 2m temps 35 and above all the way to the NY border and into NH and VT, how much realistically sticks especially with warmer surfaces and that April sun angle? Lots of questions. Forecast remains the same.

  14. JMA as always great info. I can only imagine what the topic of conversation was the week leading up to the April Fool’s Storm.

  16. Hadi in 1997 I was not in New England. I was still in Wisconsin about to finish 4 years there where and had been working for a weather services company in Madison during that time after I completed my Masters at UW and was about to move to Maryland to start 11 years of work there. I was out of NE from 1989 to 2008. My Family moved from Iowa to Massachusetts and my first introduction to New England weather one month after moving was…A May snowstorm in 1977 when I 6 years old, that brought trees down all over my back yard and quite possibly set my onto my fascination of weather.

  17. JMA I beleive that May storm is latest recorded accumilating storm in SNE. Must have been a site.

  18. I am discounting the NAM and the total miss scenario at this time. It has no support from the SREF. I would also until 36 hours out, leave the 06/18 runs alone. They will just drive you out of your mind. I do not even look at them. I believe the ECWMF continues to struggle with the NAO in its Mid Range and thus its wild swings. Right now I am using the GFS more and more, but am still bothered that looking at 12 ensemble members there are 4 misses, 2 grazes, 2 rain storms, and 2 mixes (which in April would be more rain), 2 snow storms. I am really basing my forecast ideas on there will be precip here on Friday, there will be periods of heavy precip, I don’t think the most robust precip forecasts verify, they usually don’t this far out, so that is what I am taking from the models. After that I leaving the models alone and using my thoughts above to temper my snow expectations.

  20. If its an early AM flight, I think you are good. Easterly component to the winds will keep any precip that close the water most likely rain and the winds should not have wound up that early.

  21. Hi gang.

    Thanks to coastal and any other sponsors for inviting me in.

    Glad to see some of the crew is here. Thanks for the kind words hadi.

    The Bz blog has been awful lately. Took my spirit away.

    Nice write-up JMA. I’ll say that this could be one heck of a heavy wet snowstorm for the interior if this comes in but the more sensible part of me says to stay conservative. I mean, everything has to go so perfectly this time of year. That April fools storm back in 97 was so great wasn’t it. The thunder and lighting I’ll never forget…and the 33 inches in my driveway.

  24. JMA I have been reading your stuff much more closely lately. Great info thanks for all your input.

  25. Hadi good thing you won’t be in Florida tomorrow or Thursday since the SPC has a good portion of the state in the slight risk category. As for this next storm system up in the air as usual and I don’t know call it a gut feeling that any wintry precipitation will be confined to the elevated areas of SNE. There seem to be ingredients missing to give areas near the coast an accumulating snow event but these low pressure systems have minds of their own so will see what happens.

  27. boy the NAM really wants to suck all of this OTS. Here we go again with another GFS/NAM death match. Looking forward to Euro run today.

  28. The 6z and 12z nam looks to stay south of us again. But it does show a finger of moisture hanging back just south of SNE on both runs.

  29. Jimmy i saw that.. I am a lucky man going in on Friday, this week has not been great at all and next week looks terrific!

  30. That severe weather that is possible in Florida is that same low we are keeping an eye on to see what kind of impact it has here later this week. Again if you are in an elevated area of SNE keep an eye on this because you might have an accumulating snow on Friday.

  31. 12Z GFS brings a 979 MB low to close to Nantucket on Friday and delivers a strong signal for snow outside of RT 128. There is real potential for accumulating snow here and not just in the elevated areas. But that cold air, How does it get locked in, especially when its not all that cold to the north to begin with? Its pretty uniform with about 1.2-1.3 of QPF throughout SNE.

    1. Hi JMA-could you please explain what you said about the real potential for snow here and not just elevated areas. I am new and do not know how to read the maps yet.{sorry} I live on the southshore and from what I am hearing from the tvmets it is looking like all rain for most of us. I know the ski areas will be getting a good hit. Thank’s JMA. Even though I do not know how to read the maps, I feel that I can still contribute. What got me on the wbz blog was the excitment I get while waiting for a snowstorm. I have alway’s been this way with winter storms.

  33. 2 consistent runs of the GFS, with 1 low traveling just east if Nantucket.
    I know the GFS blew the last storm, but if that were to verify, would be a mostly snowy scenario for many. I’m not sure how much cold air the storm will produce, sure seems like a strong one from what the GFS is showing.
    Lets see if the NAM and EURO come in line with the GFS.

  34. I believe there is potential for snow west of RT 128 and not just in the elevated areas such the the hills of Northwest Rhode Island and Worcester and Middlesex County. West of 128 you could be far enough away from the ocean to lose the influence of the east wind and the precip could come down hard enough that that dynamic cooling could have a strong influence if enough cold air could be locked in. I would not put this into a forecast yet, just my thinking on potential areas for snow. South Shore where you are, chances favor rain.

  35. I am becoming more and more convinced that there may be no model consensus with this storm and its going to become a combination of forecaster intuition, surface map analysis, mid and upper level analysis, and downstream and upstream current observations as the low(s) approach. 12z GEFS weaker and further south and east than its OP run. As is the 09z SREF.

  36. JMA, would the dynamic cooling (coming from above) over ride the east wind component? If the precipitation is coming down hard enough (sinking) wouldn’t it push the warm air off shore?

    1. 40 degree water temps and no lock in place for the cold air. I doubt it can cool the column enough along the shore.

  38. New moon this Sunday…..high tides at about 10ft Fri-Mon (not higher because the moon is at apogee). A strong storm, like this past Dec 26th, caused a 2.5 ft storm surge. That would cause a 12.5ft tide, if the surge coincided directly at high tide. A Boston Harbor tide of 12.5ft usually causes light to occasionally moderate coastal flooding. So, there could be some issues at the coastline later this week.

  39. My initial Snow Index for the upcoming storm and keep in my mind this is preliminary and is subject to change but I want to do this to give heads up and will see if this is the last time for the Snow Index.
    I am thinking areas in the interior especially those elevated areas I am giving a 2 which is MODERATE Snowfall
    Areas closer to the coast I am thinking more wet than white and less of an accumulation than the interior so I am giving those areas a 1 which is MINOR Snowfall.
    I think we are going to be doing a lot of nowcasting on this POTENTIAL event. I don’t see an all snow scenario since there is no real cold air for the system to work with.

    1. I agree with what you said.
      There is a lot of dry air and very cold air higher up. Evaporational cooling could become an important factor. Of course the track of the low means everything right now.

      1. That was one of the factors that turned the April Fools Blizzard into what it was. Not everyone was forecasting snow with that one, with a few exceptions, until the last minute.

  40. Man Joe Joyce blog is going to get the haters out in full force tonight:) Be prepared for major attacks coming from them.

    JMA I know you are worried about this storm panning out, but I think the coast is going to be the issue. It sure looks like a pretty big storm for interior areas.

    Reading Joe’s blog I am worried about flights out of logan on Friday morning. Of course Florida weather will be great, but getting there sounds like the issue.

    1. Hadi- I think you should be fine on Friday. Don’t waste your energy thinking about it. You and your family will have a great time. This time last year I was getting close to my vacation to the Turks. Start thinking about what shorts to wear to dinner Friday night. I am sure you will get out without any problems.

  41. Good afternoon everybody. Another day where I won’t be at the keys much until mid evening. I want to welcome retrac! Thanks for coming!

    And just a reminder to anyone who may arrive but your comments don’t get approved right away. Just takes me a while to get to the admin stuff some days. Usually by 330pm at the latest on weekdays it will happen. Thanks for being patient!

    Spendid but chilly day out there, though being in the sun in a wind-blocked area makes it feel quite warm. Looks like we get back toward normal tomorrow, and with less wind it will feel very nice. Many days like that have preceeded spring snowstorms. Hmmm… 🙂

    I’ll give things a look and an update later. JMA’s thoughts are very close to my current ones. Thanks JMA!

  42. I think Boston is already at June 28th for the last day of schools. Of course, they get evacuation day and Bunker Hill Day off, so that helps to extend the school year some. I have to think that some of the suburbs are pushed into the last week of June with all the snowdays during that six week stretch. Imagine another snowday on Friday, April 1st !!!!! ….Forgive me, I think like a teacher who is looking towards when summer break begins 🙂

        1. So did we- I think you guys had school one day during a storm and they sent you right back home right. My contractor was working at my house that day and got the call from his wife saying the high school was going to let out- I think they had just got there. I think Pembroke had 5 snow days. SST do you think we will see snow down here. I am thinking all rain and strong wind.

          1. Yes, I think snow is possible to the coast. Precip probably starts as rain and if the storm tracks near the benchmark and keeps the column somewhat above the ground below freezing, then during heavy precip, I think it would fall as snow. If it is a daytime storm, its going to be hard to accumulate much snow though.

      1. I remember that storm because my dad drove through a powdery snow drift that almost skidded us off the road (which I remember being amazed that there was powdery snow in April).

  43. Thanks TK, Hadi, Coastal et. al.

    Perfect timeing to be let in…the mosquitos were coming back out on BZ blog. I welcome others’ opinions but not knuckleheads!

    Looking forward to the possibility of one more strom!

    Hadi, are you going away! oh, that’s just wrong after basically a snowless Feb. and March!

  44. Retrac of course I am on Friday…on vacation.

    Thanks John you know this is the problem when you follow weather you get caught up in it too much::))

    1. I hear that, I know It’s hard to pull away but get yourself in vacation mode. I wish this was us. We have one child and he is six. We try to do the big trips every other year, so far we have been able to. In two weeks we will be staying at the cape codder for the longweekend.

  45. One dorky thing I like to do is drive up to Princeton center (same town as Mt. Wachusett for those who might not know) this time of year, or early Fall, during elevation events. It’s only about 15 minutes up the road from me. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve done that with 2″ turning to 6″ of snow over the course of a few miles. It’s pretty cool.

  47. You will get out Hadi. I am not worried about the storm panning out. I am just not ready to bite on snow to the coast and a 1997 replica type storm.

    1. My wife will be happy to hear that, she has been a pain in the you know what about whether I am worried about getting out on Friday!! Thanks JMA

  48. Sure has been a lot of cold air at night so the core must be close. Is it going to be close enough for a lot of snow south of Boston on Friday? Will it linger into Saturday? This sure is exciting weather around here, it will probably be 80 next weekend! This is a great site TK keep up the fine work.

    1. Hi Merlin.

      Yes, sometimes strong storms in big trofs can be followed by big warmups, especially in the spring. In fact, within about ten days, the GFS gives a signal at a chance of a warm sector on a storm going to our west, so, I could envision warmth within a quick transition.

      I like what JMA has been blogging about above with respect to his thoughts on snow potential across the region.

  49. Ok. I’m off for about 3 hours. Have fun speculating guys and gals and I’ll chime in later this evening!

    Remember if you’re on WBZ and troll-boy is being nasty, don’t respond, just report. 🙂

    2. wow…”advisory level snow possible over SE Mass and RI with warning level snow possible over the interior based on current trends”

  53. Tom I know they are very bullish in their assessment. They talked about about the dynamic cooling that will occur to overcome BL temps. I know JMA has been worried about that all day in his blogs.

  54. Joshua had a nice write up. Coastal if you are out there send him your email I think he would be great as well.

  55. I can’t blame anyone for being bullish on this. You got reasonable agreement with the GFS/ECWMF. I just can’t go all in yet. NWS talks about warning level snows west of ORH, but the GEFS has many members that don’t have much measurable making it into western MA. The SREF is not on board. Why such resistance from the reliable ensmebles? I really believe SNE will see snow from this. Its the amounts and how far south and east that I am not ready to be so forceful about yet.

  56. JMA their write up is interesting bc they leave out the Boston area out of the warning/ advisory topic. They mention advisory for SE Mas and warning for west of Orh. Hmmmmmm

  57. Wow I was out for the afternoon and just caught up on reading. Are you all thinking more snow than rain. I saw someone said pete b is but if it is snow is it too soon to know how big?

    John we took kids to Capecodder a while back. They loved the wave pool.

    1. I heard it was good. We will be going there 4/16 and 4/17. My son will be turning seven on the 16th. The wave pool is why we will be going.

  58. Hi retrac, good to see you on here on TK’s blog! As I mentioned yesterday, for the time being, I have no intention of posting on the WBZ blog until the “troll” situation is resolved once and for all. Of course I will always go there only to read what the mets have to say. I see today the trolls are out in full force as always (unfortunately). No doubt they are licking their chops regarding the Friday storm.

    Speaking of such, regarding the “April Fool’s Day Storm…THE SEQUEL 2011″ I don’t believe that Boston will receive anywhere near 25.4”, but I will bet that 5.4″+ is quite possible if not very likely. Todd seems to be the most cautious with still the possibilty of just rain for Boston while Harvey and especially Pete going with mostly snow for Boston. Track for now is expected to be near the benchmark or just to the west. Let’s see what happens. 🙂

  59. Phillip BB is on duty tomorrow through Friday so let’s what he had to say. No offense to Todd but am glad BB is on duty.

    1. Yes Hadi, I believe Barry mentioned on his Sunday blog that he will be on duty through Friday. He was on duty for the 1997 April Fool’s storm as well.

      If anyone would like to see Barry’s 1997 newscast (w/Garry LaPierre), just go to youtube.com and type in “Barry Burbank”. I watch it all the time….just can’t get enough. 🙂

    2. Such a different look at that old forecast compared to today’s graphics. If they had today’s technology, that probably would have been better forecasted.

  61. How many inches does Boston need to get to 100 inches for the season ? 🙂 …..I’m not sure I want that to happen.

    1. Tom Boston is 22 inches away from 100 inches for the season. I don’t think that will happen but there is a shot to get to the 80 inch mark or maybe a litte above that what are next storm system should it play out the way I am thinking.

  62. Hmmm I think I need to shut off sending every reply on the blog to my email. I only have 459 new messages in my inbox. Oops. 🙂 Now to do a little site admin work…

  63. knowing my location, i’m probably going to be stuck on the warm side of a coastal front. hopefully that doesn’t happen 🙂
    If my coastal location is west of the coastal front, then i’m going to get really dumped on. Maybe I need to do some praying to the weather gods…lol joking 🙂

    2. Hi Scott,

      I dont buy a coastal front. When I think coastal front, I think of polar or arctic air in the interior and maritime air along the coastline. The ocean is at its coldest and I think the whole region is going to be covered in a uniform type airmass. Sure, the Cape and Islands might be modified ever so slightly, but I think most areas, even to the coastline will have uniform temps in the low 30s. Once you get far enough north out of the heavy precip, temps will actually be milder.

      1. You can still get a coastal front setup in this type of storm, depending on how much cold air is getting pulled down from above. It may not be as pronounced this time, given some limitations in cold air to the N to be pulled in, helping to set the contrast up. And as you said, with the ocean being chilly and the interior a bit warmer, delta-T will be smaller. 🙂

        1. Maybe this will be the storm that needs a presentation done on it at next years SNE Wx Conference.

  64. As I mentioned earlier in the week, my gut feeling this is going to be a big snowstorm to remember. I am not saying anything like the April Fools Day storm but we might be calling this one its little brother. I think this storm is going to create just enough cold air to be real big not that far from Boston. I am getting way ahead of myself but Manchester, NH 12-15 inches. I don’t want to get crazy so that is it.

    1. I’m going to be chatting with a handful of my coworkers, many of them having been in the forecasting biz for years, even decades. I’ve already talked to one, and he’s on board with moderate to heavy snow, even in Boston, pending the location of the coastal front.

  65. Again I have to say I’m excited to be part if this blog. It’s wonderful to read all of the input and not sift through what’s real. It’s like the weather blog used to be. Thanks for making anticipation of the storm just that much better

  67. TK we are a troll free zone so what numbers are you thinking? jMA if you are on tonight, anything change your thoughts from earlier?

  68. Just for fun…..

    Plymouth : 1.8 inches
    Boston (Logan) : 4.7 inches
    Worcester : 13.6 inches
    Jackpot : Florida, MA out on the MassPike : 21.7 inches

  70. Tom if the GFS/ECWMF were to verify, I agree with your jackpot location, just not quite as much. Good orographic potential there, but I don’t think you are look at 2+ QPF anywhere.

    1. Hi JMA.

      Awesome analysis as always……A few years back, I think it was in 2007, we went to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown in NY, taking the Mass Pike. It had been a long time since I had been that far west on the Pike. And at one of its highest points, there was Florida, MA. And for whatever reason, that popped into my head tonight. Incidentally, we were hit with a pretty ferocious storm during that time and Cooperstown, which is fairly elevated, received about 6 inches of snow, It was April school break, so it was sometime during the April 15th thru 20th timeframe.

      1. Florida is along RT 2. It is very high and that area from Florida into Charlemont, down into Cummington and Chesterfield on the Eastern side of the Berkshires and west side of the Connecticut River is one of the most favorable snow growth areas in Massachusetts. Conversely, the area just East of the Connecticut River, deep in the Valley, shadowed by the eastern Berkshires and the western Worcester hills such as Hadley, the Northern Part of South Hadley, Amherst, Granby, the east side of Belchertown are some of least favorable snow growth areas in Massachusetts.

        1. If anyone wants to a great drive someday. Do the RT 2 corridor of Mass all the way out to Williamstown. You will forget you are in Massachusetts.

  71. Too early for me to even think about numbers, i’ll try to come up with them by this time tomorrow 🙂

  72. I say 3 or 4 AM for Logan, and like JMA, I also think it starts as rain there.

    For fun? Logan snow amount? 6.1. Yeah I know it’s a stretch but about 3 weeks ago I said Logan would have 6.1 inches sometime between March 15 & April 15. 🙂

  73. Here is my issue. We are going hog-wild on the GFS and ECWMF saying snowstorm on a storm that is still in its formative stages. Neither of its ensembles agree with their OP runs. The SREF does not agree. The synoptic pattern of the NAO/AO/PNA does not come in with an ideal wet up. The wind is not out of the north and the air to the north is not all that cold, yet because these two models are on board, we are all on board. Again I still think snow in SNE, but I wonder if we are moving a bit fast? I just can’t get that voice out my head to be careful, because we can easily get caught up in the momentum. Last week many of us got burned because we did not take into account upstream convection and its plume of warm air that would cause unadvertised ridging. What could we be missing here?

    1. There’s almost always something to miss… There are too many factors, as you mention, which is why, other than my for-fun guess for Logan which is not my official forecast, I have not really talked about amounts yet. I need more evidence before I start using “probable” in place of “possible”.

      1. I got a voice that needs more convincing that this is the real deal. Does that make me too cautious? I often wonder if sometimes we have too much information? I thought of that when Scott said imagine how much more accurate they would have been in 1997. Sometimes I wonder if all this information at our disposal creates more doubt than conviction?

        1. JMA,

          Would North Adams, MA be at the western part of Rt. 2. We have camped out there. I’m trying to figure out where I would have seen a sign for Florida, MA, which I know I remember seeing, but evidently not on the Mass Pike. 🙂

  74. when I see the 00z run of the NAM tomorrow night at 10pm ish, i’ll give my numbers. I’m not used to forecasting snow on April first, whole different story than forecasting snow in the winter months. I also haven’t really bought an all snowstorm for the Boston area just yet.

  75. Here is Barry Burbank on a 6:00 pm newscast Sunday March 8, 1981 working with “old school” washboards like Don Kent back-in-the-day. His “new” tools are the Satellite Picture (whooooo) and radar (whoooo), lol. Also David Scott (who?) and Bob Neumeier.

    htttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNTXfHLBRGE

    Not to mention Barry’s “2-Day”….LOL 🙂

  76. I gave my intial thoughts earlier on the snowfall and I am thinking right now a 2 for the interior which is a MODERATE Snowfall and a 1 for the coastal areas which is a MINOR snowfall. I am not going to give specific amounts for a location just yet but I think this storm system could have some surprises and were going to be nowcasting should it come up and impact us.

  77. Thanks JMA and TK.

    JMA you makes great sense, the one thought I have is when the EURO and the GFS ops run both sing the same tune then I have to put some faith in them. I am always leary when the members do not support the ops run. I also think that inside 128 is the area I am always not sold on snow in Jan/Feb let alone April 1st. I think we get wrapped up in fond memories of the April fools storm. I do think it’s special that we even have a chance of a decent storm this late into the season. I really would like to see what the NAM has to say.

    Joe Bastardi seems on board as well.

    Do you use HRRR or any high res models? I think that’s what it’s called.

    2. Yeah its another tool. Using radar intergrated with the WRF and RUC. Big with the Fed Ex and UPS forecasters. I have never found it to be any more definitive than RUC.

  78. JMA all the info we have is a hindrance for a forecaster. I think we over analyze on weather as well as everything else in life.

  80. My computer has been out of commission for a few weeks, but I’ve finally had a shiny new hard drive installed and I’m ready to watch this next storm unfold with you all!

    I don’t have anything new to add… but I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s models to see if they continue to show such significant snowfall. I’m mentally prepared to face a foot (or more) of snow in honor of April Fools’ Day and my half birthday. Bring it on!

    1. Welcome back Christie! It’s good to see you blogging again. I’d wondered where you had gone.

      Yes it will be fun to see how this goes. And happy half birthday in advance!

  82. I am out for the night. Early AM work does not allow for late nights with you all. Thanks for the awesome conversation today!

  85. My biggest concern on this storm will the BL temps. Unless I see something that indicates anything different I am not on board either.

  86. just got home gang.

    saw the 18z gfs…….I mean is this really going to happen. Snow qpf in worcester over 2″?

    1. That would be mostly rain for SNE, and the QPFs are through the roof. I would almost toss that run, doesn’t add up.

  87. we’ll see what overnight runs do scott. It really would be quite a storm. Still cautious because of NAM. I think it was JMA earlier who discounted it…I think.

    1. the 18z NAM did begin to show a storm similar to what the GFS and EURO are showing, but yes the NAM will help us in the next 24-60 hours.

  88. Retrac the NWS also tossed out the NAM indicating it doesn’t add with the teleconnections we have in place.

  90. Shouldn’t there also be consideration about the ability of this storm to “manufacture” its own cold air? I don’t really understand the principle as to “how”, but I remember TK mentioning this way back in a posting during early winter regarding many spring storms. After all, its been relatively cold for many days now. It’s not like back in 1997 when we were 60+ degrees the “day before”…and THAT proved quite successful for snow to say the least.

    1. This storm will certainly have a chance to do just that. Heights fall, air aloft gets colder, some of which is dragged downward by developing and falling precipitation. One of my bosses, a very seasoned and well known met. in the private sector, used to swear by this when forecasting spring storms.

  91. Its nice to post here where I don’t have to worry about the refresh button. I tried to answer a question someone had over that about how long it will take should we get any snow for it to melt. The snow does not last this time of year due to the high sun angle and another thing should anyone have to shovel take it easy since this is going to be a wet snow.

    1. One should always take it easy shoveling, even when its fluffy. The April 1997 snow took a good 3 days to melt completely, but that was an enormous amount, of course.

  92. Boy, the 0z NAM comes in late now with Daylight Savings Time. I guess I can stay awake another 15 minutes to see what it thinks.

    1. One of many reasons why I hate Daylight Saving Time…not to mention 1-hour sleep loss and “dark” mornings.

        1. Pretty Impressive, beating Philadelphia and Chicago back to back. I knew the Flyers were good, but I had to see where Chicago was this year. They were the Cup Finalists last year I think.

  94. matt if you happen to see this…please don’t keep answering the troll on WBZ. It’s just going to make him post more, using your name. Everybody knows it isn’t you. You just have to keep hitting report comment, ignore him, and post as you like. People can tell the difference.

  97. TK, if you get a chance this evening or overnight, could you respond to my 9:42 pm posting regarding “spring” storms? Thanks, I would appreciate it.

      1. TK, Thanks again! I hope the mets take all that into consideration in their future forecasts. 🙂

  99. Nam looks like a perfect track and over 1 inch QPF through most of sne at this point. Heading to bed, let’s see what happens tomorrow.

  100. interesting weather day….work beckons in the early AM……glad I have a half a bag of icemelt left over.

  104. Will see what tune the models thing tomorrow but clearly the chances of a storm are pretty good right now!

  105. I’m going to update the blog shortly. Still not putting any amounts down – too early. Tomorrow, I will be out after work for a few hours, and not able to get to the blog until early evening, at which time I’ll be limited due to having company, so I apologize in advance. Thursday I’ll be free & clear.

  106. This storm is going to be “track” dependent to say the least. We still have a good 2 full days, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the mets end up “nowcasting” in the end…just a gut feeling on my part.

    Have a Good Night, everyone! 🙂

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