Volatile For A While

116 Comments

3:55PM

This 7 day forecast will be fairly low confidence because there is a whole lot of potential for big differences resulting from only slight shifts in positioning of weather systems.

This is how I think it will break down (many updates to follow as we progress):

Tonight… High pressure slips south of the region. Dry and chilly but not as cold as the last few nights.

Friday… Low pressure tracks east northeastward, south of New England, throwing some clouds across the region and perhaps a period of rain across RI and southeastern MA in the morning. This low pressure area will be moving more quickly that I had originally thought, so the timing is faster than you saw on my last update (which obviously means that any rain/snow threat for Friday night is non-existent).

Saturday… High pressure builds in from the west with a chilly and breezy start to the day, then clouds slide in from the west late in the day as a warm front approaches from the west.

Sunday… Warm front should push through the region but the day may start gray before becoming brighter and warmer.

Monday… Indications that the frontal boundary that moves north of southern New England Sunday slides back down the coast as a back-door cold front, chilling off at least eastern MA. Cloudiness will be a wild card so will play the wording generically for now.

Tuesday… “Anything can happen.” Well this many days in advance I suppose that is somewhat true. I have seen forecasts ranging through the 60s to 70 for temperatures, but I’m going to make an early call of a mild day, but below 60, behind a weak wave of low pressure and front pushing south of the region and small bubble of high pressure moving in.

Middle of next week… Looking colder to me, and have to watch the potential for some storminess before the week is out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning but thickest cloudiness southeastern MA and RI where some rain is possible, and clouds may be thin enough for sun to show through to the northwest. Increasing sunshine afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 30 inland, middle to upper 30s over coastal areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine much of day, clouds advance late. Highs around 50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, more sun later. Low 38. High 64.

MONDAY: Sun early, more clouds later. Low 44. High 60 but possibly much cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 39. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 49.

116 thoughts on “Volatile For A While”

  2. Thanks tk, I’m glad we are out of the grips of winter and are consistently in the 50’s an 60’s for highs, beautiful stuff, thanks again for the update 🙂

    2. Not so sure about “consistently”. Frequently? Yes. That’s typical for this time of year. But we’ll still have days that hang mostly in the 40s. Saturday for example. And probably 1 or 2 days next week at least in eastern sections. By the end of next week we may have 1 or 2 days that are largely in the 30s.

      2. Not seeing 40’s for highs and certainly don’t see 30’s for highs in the future but that’s my opinion 🙂

        1. Charlie I went back to the 60s and recorded temps for April. Data for mid 70s was missing for some reason but typical highs averaged 60 and typical lows averaged mid or lower 30s. There were swings in each decade to produce those averages and as you saw even with those averages in the past two decades we had snow 50% of the time in April. This is spring – days warming and nights cooling and snow tossed in for good measure

  8. 4-6 inches of snow in VA and still coming down hard.

    A storm similar to that may be up this way in about 8 days.

    1. Not sure I’m chasing that carrot, I think your crazy tk but I’m not the pro, you are for sure but I’ll be watching 🙂

      1. You never know Charlie…spring snows are very sneaky. If TK says snow is still possible, I’ll keep my shovel at the ready for another week at least. 😉

        Thanks TK for the heads up! 🙂

  9. Certainly with a backdoor cold front hanging down the coast from northern new england, 40’s east of 495 is very possible Wed-Friday of next week while 50’s are confined to the CT river valley. There absolutely will be no such snow here next week as TK hints at 😀

    1. I’m glad you can be 100% certain in an inexact science. Congratulations. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK. I’m glad too :D. And my thinking won’t change until proven otherwise 😀

        1. I explained above that it is moving too far south and too quickly to materialize a snow threat. As you can see, the snow exists, it’s just taking place down by VA. Never said it was 100% locked in up here.

          Pay attention to the wording of my forecasts. There is ALWAYS room for uncertainty. That’s the nature of nature. 🙂

          1. I’m not speaking of today TK. A few days ago you were responding to OS’s enthusiasm regarding this storm. You replied with “the system’s a moving in….” How did that work out for ya? Keep in mind, that I’m only teasing:)

            1. It’s quite obvious it’s not going to work out. But at least it was in a commentary and not an official forecast. 😉

  11. i can not wait for the 17th of may . thats when my summer vaca starts. and my pool will be open the week before. I can not wait for pool and beach weather now. get through this stuff called 50s and get to the 80s and 90s. weather.

    1. I actually enjoy the 50’s and 60’s alot more than the 80’s and 90’s, that’s just me though

  12. I see where tk’s possibility is on the models, personally I’m going with climatology and what guidance is hinting at, IMO, now saying that tk went to school for this and overall he is very good so I take his precautions serious, I’m not saying I don’t think he’s crazy still haha 🙂 but he’s proven me wrong before so will see, I’m just betting that it’s a day late and a dollar short (so to speak) for any more meaningful snow (an inch or more) 🙂

  13. Sunrise 6:20am Sunset 7:17pm the declination of the same is the same as about Sept 5th,, daylight is about 13hrs,, Boston ocean temp is 42.7 degrees

  15. TK. What are your early thoughts for next Friday? Driving from here to Toronto all in one day!

      1. Yes it will be. Have done it before but not in snow. We go out to Syracuse and then north and cross over north of Watertown. Sure hope no lake effect too!

        We get there Friday night and then off to Jamaica Saturday.

        My wife won’t fly to Canada but will fly to Jamaica….I think it is because they use smaller planes from here to Toronto.

        2. I am like your wife. I was in a very small plane that crashed on landing in New Mexico and I hate small planes now. (Not a big crash — plane went off runway.)

          Hope you don’t run into the lake effect white stuff.

          1. Glad you were ok. That must have been a horrible expierience.

            She is reading a book that her sister gave her on fearless flying. We will see if that helps.

              1. Thanks Vicki. I was thinking of you when I passed through that intersection in Plainville tonight will all of the traffic lights. There are 15!

                1. Ugh. Amazing area. Tell your wife mac flew at 2 to Sweden on a plane with propellers. He’s flown all his life and his sister has been a flight attendant since 1969 and he detests the small planes where your feet scrape the ground

  16. Still blocky at far, far north latitudes. Not quite the same configuration as a couple weeks ago, but still there. The upper flow is east – southeast over Greenland.

    The potential impact, while Greenland and far northeast Canada is mild, the cold is being funneled into central Canada. We just finished up a very cold shot the past two days and another small piece will sneak in here Saturday morning.

    As long as this general atmospheric configuration is in place, the cold, dry air wont be terribly far away.

  17. The average high in Boston is 52 degrees but the average high in Worcester is 55 degrees, spring is opposite to winter as now it’s warmer inland and cooler at the coast

  19. Syracuse NY is now #1 on the snow list with 115″ and Worcester #2 with 108″. With TK’s thinking Worcester could still very much be in the running to be #1 again. After all IIRC Worcester received nearly 20″ with the April 27-28, 1987 snowstorm.

    Never say “never” until April 30th! 😉

    1. Worcester may very well be measuring snow next Friday or Saturday per Euro with modifications.

  21. The Sox lost to Yanks 4-2. Hopefully they get a new streak going at Toronto. I for one am sick of these crappy starts…not that I am expecting much of anything as usual. JBJ is the only breath of fresh air this team has.

  22. I worry about widespread 60s for Sunday with a wind due south coming off a chilly water, also the clouds that will be around for part of the day. I agree that next week is pretty much a coin toss.

  23. Enjoying the lovely campfire here at Camp Springtime! Still plenty of easter candy peeps to go around!

    2. Nice fire – as you may know I love outside fires. We currently are exploring gas fire pits. And peeps……I thought you meant peepers 😉 Now peeps sound lovely 🙂

      1. I had to google peepers and then I got a really good laugh when I realized tht you thought I was roasting cute little frogs over my campfire! Hahaha! I actually have a chiminea in my backyard. Its pretty nice to light a fire in.

        1. Im roaring laughing at what you must have thought when I said peepers. You can tell I have spring on my mind if I went right from peeps to peepers !

          We have a fire pit as well and love sitting on the deck – esp this time of year before bugs are out. I think we are getting lazy as we get older though and would like the option of either wood or gas (when we are too lazy to build). Nothing beats wood though – I love the crackle and smell!!

    1. I just looked it up hadi, yeah that’s typical of Attleboro, Attleboro is a small city you stay away from unless you have to pick up willow tree chicken salad/chicken pot pie, attleboro is a bit further south and east of me, anyways have a good day hadi, your up early 🙂

  25. I have nothing to do with Attleboro, it’s N.Attleboro and Wrentham, why what happened to school lunches in Attleboro?

      1. Attleboro and N. Attleboro seceded from one another back in the 1880’s and became separate towns. Lynn, Nahant, Swampscott, Lynnfield, Saugus and Reading all did the same thing as they were all considered Lynn at one time.

        1. Thanks – Unlike most, I’m surprised they kept the same name. When I hear names that are similar I alway think they are simply defining the area within the town. I need to stop assuming…..peep/peepers, attleboro/north attleboro 🙂

          1. Haha, to complicate things even more, theres a South Attleboro too, but its technically part of the city of Attleboro.

  26. Feels mild out this morning, 40.3 degrees now, expecting a high of about 56-57 degrees today here, still don’t see even slight chances for snow as tk has been eluding to but will wait and see as we get closer 🙂

    1. Believe me, snow is done. There is a system that could affect the area with a cold rain late next week but that is a week away. Perhaps the highest elevations of central and northern new england see some snow but not for southern new england. Enjoy the warm weather sunday through tuesday with highs 58-68 degrees 😀

  27. North attleboro succeeded from Attleboro over 100 years ago bc we didn’t want to be a city, thank goodness

      1. We beat them 62-14 1 thanksgiving day I flattened a defensive back in the open field, it was great 😉

  29. Sun is peaking out in Plymouth…looks like my son will get his first flag football game in this evening. Go Chargers!!

  30. Starting to clear out in Marshfield. I see inland, temps have gotten to 55F to 60F with lowering dewpoints. Rain never made it here, though I did see some raindrops on various Cape Cod webcams earlier.

      2. Oh really. Based on what? TK? LOL 😀 There actually is a system advertised for late next week but it’s a cold rain if it were to occur.

  32. The back and forth battle btwn cold and warm continue on the 12Z EURO. It will be interesting, as central Canada is going to be colder than normal, the SE US is going to be warmer than normal and I suppose the great lakes area and the northeast are the battleground. It could be very warm a couple days within the next 2 weeks, to be followed by a next day thats 30-40F colder.

  36. Today was an awesome sunny day with temps peaking at 59. It felt wonderful running track

  37. My crocuses opened up today. Warm temps make the difference. Even in full sunshine if it is cold as it has been the past few days, they will remain closed.

    The daffodils still have not come up but the crocuses are absolutely beautiful. In terms of flowering, there is a huge difference between just inland and the coastline.

  38. I’m not sure people really understand what I mean when I say snow threat in April.

    I’m not talking about an old fashioned snowstorm that comes up, starts and ends as snow, snows all in between, and drops a foot of powder with 2 foot drifts.

    What cannot be discounted is the possibility that any storm, given cold enough upper air, can have mix/snow involved with it in parts of or even much of the region in this weather pattern.

    I’ve been studying weather for a few decades and I have seen it happen so many times in the Spring. Of course it doesn’t happen a whole bunch of times and many times we go snowless during Springtime. THIS particular weather pattern supports the kinds of storms that can do it though. It does not mean every storm will do it. And obviously I’m looking at a system that has been carried on the Euro for 7+ days in the future. Of course there’s uncertainty.

    Part of meteorology is knowing how to modify a model that you believe may be depicting something incorrectly. I don’t look at a run of something 7 days out and say “rain” or “snow” based on what the exact forecast # is. There will be model error. It just may so happen that I believe the model may be forecasting it to be too warm.

    If you base it on today’s 12z Euro and assume it verifies exactly, then yes it would be too warm for snow. But that forecast is for April 12-13. This is April 5. How many models had the April Fools blizzard nailed 7 to 8 days out? *listening to crickets chirping* … Yup, that’s what I thought.

    Barry, Harvey, or any of those guys would agree with me 100% here.

    2. TK I think most of us do get what you are saying. As I’ve said before you always take the time to explain completely. When I went through all of the temps in April for the past 50 years, the temperature swings were amazing and consistent from year to year and decade to decade.

      My question to you would be is April one of the most unpredictable months in the northeast? Even if not and as much kidding as we do here, it seems clear to me that nothing is a given and you have to expect the unexpected.

      Thanks for your explanation. It makes perfect sense

      1. I should add that to me nothing in weather is a given and lately we are seeing more of the exceptions

      2. April is more volatile than March, without a doubt.

        You mix the first pushes of warmth with that lingering cold upper air, add snowcover lingering to the north, and a cold ocean. That’s a live weather laboratory.

        And you can even take that volatility into May sometimes.

        Some of you may recall waking up on the morning of Saturday May 18, yes 18, 2002, to light to moderate snow/sleet falling, with up to an inch in some locations.

        How many people were convinced that would never happen back in early April nevermind mid May?

        1. I remember and it seems spring is more volatile than fall which tends to settle into a pattern. I remember some June’s that go into the middle of the month and are more like April. 2011 and 1982 come to Mind.

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