Downs & Ups

119 Comments

7:29PM

This is a quick update on the previous blog as there are no big changes, just a few timing tweaks.

Cold front going through southern New England now (Friday evening), cold air set to rush in during the night and linger into Saturday. Warm front traverses the region early Sunday, leading mild air back into the region. Another cold front will settle across the region from north to south Monday and set up a situation where a front will oscillate back and forth around the area for much of next week, making temperature forecasts very difficult. Eventually it may turn more unsettled later next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 Boston and coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, sending wind chill to the upper teens late.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, light variable for a while, then S 5-10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 60-65 but remaining in the 50s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 60 then turning much cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55 coast to 65 far inland.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 45 coast to 55 inland.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 36. High 48 coast to 54 inland.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Low 39. High 48.

119 thoughts on “Downs & Ups”

  2. Thanks TK. We had our cookout and sat on the deck but when the wind picked up even I got chilly. And it was too windy to take the chance of a fire. And today is a perfect example of the April swings. 62 here earlier and into the 30s or even 20s tonight. I know I’m a broken record but you gotta love New England.

  3. Is it true tk that between April 1st-June 1st Boston ocean temps rise very quick going from 40 degrees April 1st to 60 degrees June 1st? Thanks 🙂 wondering if this is accurate

    1. yes. that is true for most years but their could be off years when the water currents are weaker or stronger.

  4. Tweet from Joe B

    @BigJoeBastardi: Already working on next winter, but have to get by a warm, though not as hot summer as past 3 yrs and robust hurricane season

        2. boooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i love my winter snows and cold by i want my beach weather thanks. and 70s aint beach weather because of the usual sea breeze that forms and makes it go down to the 60s anyway. lol need 80s and 90s 🙂 sorry i want my summer heat 😀

    2. Interesting summer coming I think, both with the tropics and to see how much ice remains in the Arctic by early Sept and how that affects the arrival of next autumn, early winter.

  6. If this April goes snowless like i think it will it will be 5 outa the last 6 Aprils snowless

  7. On a side note Boston has grown from 617,485 residents in 2010 to 631,547 residents in 2013, this is more growth than all of the 70’s,80’s and 90’s, Boston peaked population in 1968 with 842,476 residents but then lost population from 1969 till 1994 when it had 581,529 residents, est say Boston will have 684,538 residents in 2020, Massachusetts popoulation is est to increase to be about 7 mil in 2020, and still after all this growth Massachusetts probably will lose another house seat to Texas or California, very unfortunate, couldn’t sleep, gonna try now, goodnight all or shall I say good morning 🙂

    2. In 1968 Boston was the 5th biggest city in country, and the Pru was the 3rd tallest building in country being built only behind ny and chicago, now it’s the 17th biggest city in 2013, and in the next decade will drop to either 18th or 19th being leap frogged by cincinatti and fort worth, not saying anything bad just saying I hate how we fall in population rankings every year. Ok back to the weather 🙂

  8. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How long is the typical tornado on the ground?
    A. 40 seconds
    B. 10 minutes
    C. 30 minutes
    D. 1 hour

    I managed to get this one wrong. Answer later today.

    1. Hmmmmm …. I think C and D are reserved for those rare monsterous tornadoes ……. B. (I think I’ve gotten about 5 wrong in a row now 🙂 ). This probably makes 6.

    3. Ill go with B also. I didnt know Tom had gotten any wrong but if he’s correct in his count and I’m sure he is, odds are that he’s bound to be right soon so since I have no idea ………

      Thank you longshot

    4. Since I am so interested in tornadoes I should know the answer! But, frankly, I am taking a guess on this – I thought C – but as Tom says, that would be for monstrous tornadoes.

      My guess is B.

      1. Hahahahahahaha. I’m going to double over laughing if its C because that was my first thought too Hi rainshine 🙂

    1. Yes…… I think it was last weekend or maybe the one before, you literally couldn’t travel more than 4 houses without seeing brush being burned in a backyard. There’s so much to burn down here in SE Mass from all the tree damage this winter, but I hope everyone takes a break from that today.

    2. We were going to have a fire outside last night and sit on the deck but it was too windy to take the chance. I’m really surprised that things are as dry as they are

      1. I can always tell the level of humidity by using my wooden screen door as a gauge. If it shuts all the way without sticking, the air is dry. High humidity causes the door to swell and prevents it from closing properly. Archaic, yes…

        1. That’s a great way to tell. I love the old wooden doors. I wanted one on our porch but the deck tends to swell up and block the door from opening when the ground freezes so everyone thought it would eventually warp the door

          I use my hair for humidity………. Its one of the reasons summer was never my favorite season. Now that I’m older I don’t seem to mind as much when I look a fright 😉

          1. Speaking of humidity and I found this out a few years ago on how you know whether a day is going to be
            comfortable levels of humidity or uncomfortable levels of humidity. Look at the overnight lows. When the lows
            are in the 50s or low that is a dry airmass and which will lead to a comfortable day. When the lows are
            in the the lows 60s it will feel uncomfortable the next day. Mid 60s and higher is when it really gets
            sticky.

            1. That probably works quite well, though a frontal passage in the morning could mess it up once in a while. 🙂

  11. I am going with B for the answer.
    Speaking of tornadoes parts of the Plains could see the first outbreak big outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes early next week.
    Hopefully we don’t see any tornado touchdowns here in SNE this year. If I remember correctly I don’t think there was a tornado touchdown in SNE last year. The closest to a touchdown was in August in Glastonbury, CT when the cirrculation made it to the tops of some of the trees but never touched the ground.

  13. First hint of what can be a 70+ day for all of SNE except where wind is onshore, but it’s still over a week away………………………..and this is per the Euro model.

    1. An ha. Right in time with my guess which is the day my newest grandchild is born. What’s the day TK so I can tell my daughter her due date :). Actually if she doesn’t have the baby next week they will induce the following sooooo

      1. If you take the Euro literally it would be April 16, which is Tax Day for us here in MA (we get an extra day again this year). 😉

  14. A couple more warm weather facts (right up your alley Charlie!):

    Boston reaches or exceeds 70 in March about 4 times per decade on average (of course it’s probably a more frequent occurrence inland) and there does not seem to be any increase in the frequency of 70+ degree days since 1920. The amount has been fairly steady.

    Boston has only FAILED to reach 70 in April (highest temp 69 or lower) 7 times since 1920. Can anybody name the last time that Boston never got to 70 in April? HINT: 1990s was the decade.

      1. Nice guess and reasoning but not correct. Boston’s high temp in April 1996 was 80.

            1. I was thinking 1995 and guessed 94. Amazing how so many of us think one thing and guess another. My reasoning – if it can be called that – was I was also thinking 1993 so I averaged. Although I remember 93-94 was a more than difficult winter with the horses.

  15. For those who might have an interest in today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz, I posted the quiz above at 6:53 am.

    Answer later today.

  17. For the sports/weather minded today.

    1) NCAA finals: average temp inside GA Dome = 72
    2) Sox at Toronto: game time temp = 40 (assuming the dome is open)
    3) Bruins at Montreal: game time temp = 40’s or so outside(high will be 60 in Montreal today); not sure of temperatures inside Bell Center.

  18. Geez now today is chilly with that stiff breeze, just got done walking a property with a customer brrr

  19. I will guess “B” for the quiz answer. I suspect the more destructive tornadoes are on the the ground for a good 30 minutes which I believe the Worcester tornado of 1953 was.

  20. Joe Joyce has only 40 degrees for next Saturday with a cold rain which leads me to believe that snow will be somewhere in SNE.

    TK…Are you still on “snow watch” for that timeframe so to speak? 😉

    1. It’s beginning to really look like spring, forsythias are yellow and those landscapers are planting flowers today at the local McDonald’s exact same time last year despite a cool day today, you would have thought they would have done it tommorrow anyway have a good day 🙂

    2. Yeah because when it shows up on the models then gets “lost”, you cannot discount it this soon. Except I think it would be a bit earlier than Saturday. Actually think next weekend we make a fast transition to at least a brief WARM spell.

  21. Having been outside since about 9am for town cleanup day and then softball practice for my daughter, I am frozen to the core. A morning of 30s to near 40F with very dry air and the consistent NW wind, it has fealt like the heart of winter. Brrrrr.

  22. Yes it is COLD for April today. The wind hasn’t quite let go of us yet, though it will be doing that this afternoon. Despite the chill I am going to take advantage of the slackening wind and dry air & sun for 3 hours of yard raking with Hootie & The Blowfish accompanying me.

    Tomorrow, despite lots of cloud cover to start, will be much milder and you’ll feel it. I think everybody except south-facing shores break 60 for high temps.

    I love being able to look out a week plus and see not only a snow threat but a possible 70 degree day. Spring in New England!

  23. Just remember that it doesn’t count how many times you say snow potential or snow threat, if it doesn’t happen it never happened 🙂

    1. We talk about snow threats so much by the end of April were gonna think we got a foot 🙂 and most of the time there is no snow, just my take, if it snows and accumulates then shame on me

      1. If we get zero we get zero. I just know that it can and does snow in April. So I do not discount the possibility. As the state climatologist and a few of my elder met’s told me, to discount the chance of snow in April, regardless of the pattern, is in poor practice in the field of meteorology. I learned, and I will never make that mistake.

        1. I’m always surprised anyone in New England – met or not – can discount the potential. Potential being the key word.

            1. I understand tk I really do and ik it can snow in April, but I have doubts,, did you know we have a better chance of getting a severe tstorm than snow in April?

              1. I would guess that Boston has seen more days with snow in April than they have recorded severe thunderstorms in April. 🙂

                1. Well I went back a couple of decades and didnt see one lightening bolt so you are doing better than guessing. As far as potential….I’d say a bit over 50% chance is even more than potential 🙂

  24. Just got back from visiting with a friend in Holliston. I noticed that some of the trees in the Holliston, Sherborn and Natick area have some yellow color on their tops – signs of spring. Back up north 🙂 here in Sudbury, I couldn’t find any of that. Maybe it’s in other areas of Sudbury, I don’t know. Anyway, it’s cold today but Spring will win eventually!

    1. I am hoping for some rain, ‘though. The sun is nice – but if we are going to have cold weather let it rain – we really need it.

    2. We were in Uxbridge and drove thru holliston both ways. Trees in Uxbridge showing buds and a bit of color. Ours here are also. Forsythia on south side are yellowing while there is nothing on north side.

      Do foxes hibernate? Ours is making his presence known again.

  25. By the end of April everything is gonna almost look tropical like every year, gotta love New England 🙂 hope everyone likes the color green

    1. Some years it’s not until May, and tropical, not really. If we continue to be drier than normal than the tropical label will not quite apply, and even moreso since we are not in the tropics, but the temperate zone. 🙂

      1. No ik it’s not tropical here but once all the woods and trees and landscape fill in it looks almost tropical, I only say this bc so many of my friends will visit and state how green and tropical it looks, hope all is well 🙂

          1. TK we noticed the rivers in this area are down again. Not as low as they were of course but a lot lower than a few weeks ago.

  26. I’m seeing people post things on Facebook like “Where is that warm weather I was promised!?” Ugh…people have very selective hearing…

    1. You nailed that one.

      For some reason, the majority of the public lives under some false belief that Spring is a warm season around here. It’s not that warm most of the time, ESPECIALLY closer to the ocean.

      Boston’s average temperature for the month of April is 48.

      Boston’s average temperature for the month of October is 54.

      Yes folks, the middle month of meteorological Autumn is warmer, on average, than the middle month of meteorological Spring. That’s a fact. 🙂

      1. As a longtime New Englander April in New England is temperatures fluctuating between 40-60 degrees in general with a mix of sunny bright days mixed with stretches of drizzly cloudy foggy weather

        1. Average low for 5 decades is 34. That’s average so temps go lower than 34 50%. Average high for same period is mid 60s so they go higher 50%

    2. Hahahaha Emily. You are sure right. Several people at the party we were at today said where is spring. This is spring.

  27. Tk did you know or maybe you do know but in April 96 Logan’s average snowfall was just a thick coating or under a half inch and bc of the April 97 blizzard it was raised to 1.9 inches and since then has steadily decreased to this year of an average of 1.3 inches, if we don’t get another good storm in this decade the average snowfall for April will cut back even more with the 30yr average 🙂

    1. Yes and the same thing happened on a slightly smaller scale in the early 1980s because of the 1982 storm.

      1. For sure huge spread but an average high of 48 degrees was back in March, average high today in Boston is 53 degrees 🙂

  29. Answer to AccuWeather Trivis Quiz.

    How long is the typical tornado on the ground?
    A. 40 seconds
    B. 10 minutes
    C. 30 minutes
    D. 1 hour

    Those who chose B, 10 minutes are correct.

  31. TK…NWS says inside runner with triple point for Friday-Saturday. Have you changed your thoughts for snow or still too early?

  32. Over the next week expect alot of landscape changes, my 2 trees r red and are about 2 days of 60’s from flowering, they flowered last year the 2nd weekend of April, I think around April 20th is when they will flower this year.

    1. My 3 forsythia bushes r bright yellow in Wrentham, love this time of yr, take April and May over July and Aug anyday 🙂

      1. As you know my daffodils are in full bloom. In 1987 and much of the 90s they were in full bloom end of April. We have pics of the flowers just above the snow April 27 1987. Our forsythia were never yellow this early either.

        2. Just crocuses in my yard for now and they are absolutely beautiful. No daffodils, tulips or forsythias just yet and certainly no tree foliage. It looks just as dead in that department as mid-winter.

          There is a distinct difference coast vs. inland in terms of spring flowering just like there is in fall foliage. 🙂

  33. Quietly (or maybe not so quietly) the NOAA has been proposing changes to the way in which hurricane watches and warnings are defined.

    “NOAA’s National Weather Service announced today that, starting June 1, the definitions of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings will be broadened to allow these watches and warnings to be issued or remain in effect after a tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical, when such a storm poses a significant threat to life and property. In addition, the NWS would ensure a continuity of service by allowing the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories during the post-tropical stage. These changes were motivated by the special challenges posed by Hurricane Sandy, which was forecast to evolve from a hurricane to a post-tropical cyclone prior to reaching the coast.”

    I am not sure of the following — but I believe the NOAA is still looking for feedback on proposed changes. I also think the propose changes can be found here.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130404_hsu_postTropicalChanges.php

    2 glasses of cabernet is my usual limit, but the B’s are down 2-1. 🙁

    1. I’m in full support of these changes.

      I just dont think the high wind warnings from the local weather offices and statements of catastrophic flooding get people’s attention as much as a hurricane warning. Especially in a storm thats landfalling at 940 mb.

      Lets hope thats the last of the Sandy type event for another 100+ years.

  34. I thought today’s 45F – 47F was impressive. Its one thing to get upper 30s to mid 40s well into April because its cloudy and the wind is blowing off of the ocean.

    But to reach those highs under 100% sunshine, with such dry air that should moderate some with the sunshine and with downsloping winds that should add a couple of degrees ….. well, I thought today was another impressive winter airmass in early April.

  37. Philip… Leaning a bit away from it but still days away. As I said before I’m not calling the all clear on snowflakes until later than average this season, even if we DO hit 70 this coming week. Averages may be a smooth curve, but actual weather is far from that. 🙂

  38. How about a snow event for Earth Day on April 22?

    Might happen!

    Have a good day all. 🙂

    1. Ok tk enough is enough, unless it happens I’m not buying any of it, if I told every person ik we have a chance/potential of snow every week and nothing happened I’d be a goner, not saying you would be but this is crazy ,, thanks for the hardwork, opening pool on Tuesday when I think most get over 70 degrees, Boston ocean temp is slow climbing and is up to 42.8 degrees 🙂

  39. Blog is updated!

    I am doing a 5 mile walk in Cambridge by the river today. Nice day for it. 🙂

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