The Week Ahead

198 Comments

5:54PM

The only thing normal about April is that it is seldom ever “normal”, that is, on any given day, the temperatures are usually not all that close to the long term averages. It is much variability that leads to these averages, and this will be the case during the next 7 days.

After a weekend that featured a gusty northwesterly breeze and chilly air on Saturday and a continued gusty breeze Sunday, this time from the south, and slightly milder air, a cold front will swing through during the late night hours tonight with nothing more than a few passing rain showers. This will set the stage for a bright day Monday but with not that much cold air behind the cold front, it will be on the mild side. This front will push back to the north Monday night into Tuesday morning when clouds and another shower threat occurs. Can’t rule out thunder as this warm front pushes through. Timing is perfect that this front gets far enough north to open the gates to much warmer air for Tuesday midday and afternoon. Many areas (except where winds cross cool water along the irregular coastline) will see their first day near or above 70. It is not out of the question that with enough sunshine, a few inland locations could make a run at 80 before the afternoon is out. Though this would be a much above normal temperature, it is not that unusual to get a day or 2 like this in the month of April. Enjoy that brief warmth, because the same front will oscillate southward again Wednesday and then probably set up shop just south of New England for the second half of the work week, leading to a cooling trend and more unsettled weather. By next weekend, a stronger low pressure wave that comes through late Friday should be exiting by Saturday. With some uncertainty in timing, the early call on next weekend is dry weather, windy/chilly Saturday, less wind/milder Sunday. Of course, during Spring, changes can happen quickly, so remember to check back daily for updates.

For now, here’s my best shot at the week ahead weather for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds until well after midnight along with a few passing rain showers. Clearing out west to east by dawn. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW shifting to W, 15-25 MPH gusting to 35 MPH early, diminishing later.

MONDAY: Sunshine dominates but clouds appear in the western sky by the end of the day. Highs break 60 in most areas and reach 65 in some, some 50s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Perhaps a rain shower in some locations overnight. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with the threat of a few showers and even possibly a thunderstorm. Sunshine prevails midday and afternoon. Highs around 70 most areas, may shoot well into the 70s some interior areas but hold in the 60s or even upper 50s where wind comes off water (especially South Coast &  Cape Cod/Islands). Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, W 10-20 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. AM shower. Low 49. High 56.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 39. High 49.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. PM rain, may end as mix/snow night. Low 36. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny & windy. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 64.

198 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK. Keep that snow away for my drive to Toronto on Friday! Are you thinking there could be enough rain this week for flooding? NWS mentioned possible training on the stalled front and possible heavy rain.

    1. Any time you have a front waving around in the area you have to watch for that possibility.

  4. Joe Joyce has snowflakes on his updated 7-day for Thursday night into Friday then fair and sunny for next weekend. He hasn’t posted an updated blog yet as of this posting.

  5. Hey TK do think we will see a lot of rain next fri and sat. I have to install a septic system. but will not be able to if we get a lot of rain. i know its 5-6 days away, but i have to get materials and line up people to help, early this week. thanks.

    1. I think we’ll have a slug somewhere later Friday but I don’t think excessive amounts. Also think the timing pulls it out of here by early Saturday.

  6. Sunrise is 6:15am and Sunset is 7:20pm, some models showing abundant rain for Friday and Sat, it appears we will be opening the pool the earliest in 13yrs, were opening pool Tue, I don’t want to have to deal with heavy rain

    1. Impressive considering how chill hung on this year that you are opening as early as you are. Last year we had our first 60, 70, and 80 degree readings in March and you didn’t have it open already? 😉

      At least pool water temps should be in the warm upper 40s to 50s by Tuesday. 😀 No leaves on the trees yet so don’t forget the sun screen! 😉

      1. Dont forget about those pesky spring “pool breezes.” It might be in the 70s tues but in charlies back yard it will be in the 50s 😛

  7. Could not stand this weekend’s weather. Wind, wind, and more wind. Nothing felt comfortable. Did the Cohasset Road Race (10k) which was fun but difficult with the stiff wind. Plus, you’re never sure what to wear, so you wind up overdressing and sweating like Youkilis. These road races should be done in fall when there are things to looks at. In early April, there’s nothing: no foliage, no leaves, no snow, no ice, no warmth, very little sun, and the few flowers that dot the landscape look pathetic indeed. Sorry, spring is not my season, and this past weekend provides me with ample evidence why.

    Thanks, TK, for the forecast and update.

  8. Vicki, I just listened to a message from landscapers saying they r mowing in Bristol RI tommorrow, tall and fine fescues began growing about 10 days ago, hope all is well 🙂

    1. In about 10-14 days residents mass pike to Boston south will perform there 1st mowing, mass pike north will perform there 1st mowing in 15-21 days, now retrac he may be shoveling snow till Memorial Day but the rest of us this should be very close IMO

      1. Ill keep you posted Charlie. I’m thinking ill see neighbors mow in 3-4 weeks but will keep my eye on one lawn which is always in pristine condition – not mine 🙂

  11. Tk, I’m not sure how much traveling you do well south of Boston but its suppose to still be in your forecasted area and you should be up to date, there’s already lots of buds on trees down here along with a number of different shrubs and bushes budding, sometimes I feel like you forecast your north (woburn) along with west of Boston as supposed to the whole other southern third of your forecast area, there are HUGE differences in weather esp during spring in Landscape, temps etc etc from here to your house, just reporting what’s going on and what’s happening down here, im suprised that you havent noticed a difference or havent driven down here, TK what is your forecasted area? Maybe I should be on a different blog, maybe woodshill south? There are 4 yes 4 different weather codes across just 50 miles, thanks in advance

    1. Average snowfall for Derry NH 50 inches, average snowfall for say S. New Hampshire is 50 inches and places in extreme south eastern mass and south of Providence average 25-35 inches, yes half of what falls north,

    2. Hmmmm – I always feel that TK’s forecast covers all of MA – maybe not to the Berkshires but all of the areas where we all live. As I said yesterday there are differences not only from area to area but within yards. I have distinct yellow on the forsythia on the south side of my yard and nothing yet on the north side. And we only have 1/4 acre. Rainshine is probably 5 miles (if that) as the crow flies (or is it turkey) and she doesn’t have anything. I don’t think anyone can possibly cover the mile to mile differences of spring.

      1. Actually, the more I think about it, isn’t that part of our job and why weather “spotters” come into play? We report what we see in our area since no met can be in all places at once.

      2. I agree I think tk does well but his lows are always lower than the lows we get here and the highs seem off at times, with the majority of the people being in and around Boston saying trees are bare etc etc and it’s not like that in his southern third of his forecasted area, so much different 30 miles south of Boston than 30 miles north of Boston, it’s so very different, done with my little stupid rant, thanks tk have a good day also Vicki 🙂

        1. Ok now I’m confused. Since clearly areas differ, there has to be a range – for temps, for snow, for budding, for everything. However, doesn’t a low/high range mean temps between that range? So if your low is higher than the low predicted it’s spot on?? Correct?

  12. What do people think of forecast for Orlando staring Friday, EURO looks really ugly which scares me 🙁 GFS looks much better so I really want to buy into the GFS on this one 🙂

    1. Whenver I go away on vacation I go with the model that is showing the best weather and hope its
      right. I remember my first time in Florida it rained everyday and wearing the mickey slickers going to the theme parks.

  13. Charlie, im in your area (a few miles to the east) and I guess I just havent seen this huge disparity in temps, tree and bush budding, grass growing, etc. We are all considered to be in the same climate zone which sometimes I feel like u think providence and south is the tropics, lol. I know u are observing what u see but for me in south easton I do not see any signs of spring other than the occasional crocus. My drive from home to work in walpole I dont see anything different. I drive up to west roxbury a couple times a week to visit with the future in laws and no difference in landscape from there to here. I cannot speak for south into RI however so u may be right. There may be a random forsythia blooming like in vickis yard on the south side but I would not consider that a widespread sign on spring.

    1. I don’t want to rant on about anymore ace master, there are huge differences as I’m in Warwick RI, the lawns alone need mowing, I just had a customer ask if they can mow this week, it’s hilariously different that’s all I’m saying, at the same time I have a fewcustomers holding me off cause they got snow in a shady section in Marlboro, it really is a huge contrast over just a few miles, remember ace master your going east to west I’m going north to south and I think that’s where u see the difference, hope all is well guys and gals

    3. Ace – my favorite part of your comment was that you drive to see your future in-laws a couple of times a week. I love when family is close. I should clarify that we definitely do not have forsythia blooming – just beginning to show yellow – and it is exactly the same from here down to Holliston and over to Uxbridge – so I’m seeing just what you are seeing. Beginning signs everywhere as they should be this time of year – no different than any other spring IMHO.

      1. I do it for the food Vicki 😉 They are Italian and we have dinner together every sunday. Seriously though, I do enjoy it. I have a very small family so i wasnt used to the large family gatherings (after 5 years dating Im still not used to it, lol). I do enjoy it though 🙂

  14. Anyways looks like a nice day today, some high cloudiness here sun shining through temp is 53.0

  15. Just stepped outside, first time I have felt and smelled spring in so long! Enjoying it before a sea-breeze takes over.

  19. this is why i hate spring . allergies knocking me out. but hay it could hit 70 tomorrow. but wait mother nature wants to smack us all and say fooled ya back in the 40s and low 50s

    1. At least it’s not snow. Accumulating snow has been over and is done for the season 😀

    1. I like the redsox but I can’t wait for Patriots mini camp, and that starts in July, Draft is 3 weeks away 🙂

      1. When training camp starts for football to me those cool crisp autumn days are not that far away. I am not a summer
        hater but I can’t stand 3 H weather.

      2. i might go to a few games but not many and i always look forward to football season. My freind is tring to get me into soccer.

        1. When it comes to soccer the only soccer I watch is the world cup and that is later on in the tournament.
          There is just not that much excitment in that sport.

  21. Awwww Annette Funicello passed away. She certainly did give an entire generation wonderful memories.

  22. Hello my weather friends….haven’t been on in a bit as it was a crazy busy weekend. Froze our tails off holding signs at 7 am Saturday morning for a friend that is running for selectman. Sunday we took the boys to Boston to see the Harlem Globetrotters and we all had a blast. It was rather breezy in Boston though. I just saw that Cindy Fitzgibbons is joining channel 5. It will be good to see her back on the air.

    1. Hi Sue – how did your son do Friday night??? I’ve always wanted to see the globe trotters and can imagine your boys loved it. I am not familiar with Cindy Fitzgibbons??

      1. Kevin’s team lost but they played a good game. Hope they have better luck this week. He had fun though and that is all that matters at that age. Cindy was on Fox (that explains why you aren’t familiar). 🙂

        1. hahahahahaha – yes that explains very well why I am not familiar with her ….I just burst out laughing

          And I’m sorry his team lost but very glad he had fun!!

  23. Sox 0-0 in 4th.

    There was another Red Sox Home Opener on April 8th. The year was 1996. 🙂

    1. And it snowed for that home opener. I’m not sure how though. I thought it didn’t snow in April. 😉

  24. I remember having accumulating snowfall back on that date 96. There was even snowflakes flying at the Yankees home opener that day. The snowfall from that added to a very snowy winter and the snowiest winter on record.

    1. That was the month it would not stop snowing. We’d blink and have 10 inches of snow.

      1. TK – I think I missed that year when it did not hit 70 in Boston in April………….was that the question??? Was it 96??

        2. It hit 80 in Boston in April 1996 – the SNOW month.

          This is why I have to laugh sometimes…

  25. Spoke to a fellow meteorologist in Bristol RI. He says that his lawn was fertilized a week or so ago and is green but is at least a week away from being even close to mowing length. So it appears there is variability even in those areas that are way ahead of the northern suburbs of Boston. Up here, I’d say 2 to 3 weeks, ASSUMING we have adequate precipitation (which we very well may not) before mowing can even be considered.

  27. What a day out there today! Hadi, what day do you leave? I am driving to Toronto Friday and then fly to Jamaica from there Saturday.

  29. Vicki… What you said about differences across yards is 100% true. In fact, I often have a heavy frost in my back yard which is lower than the front yard, with little or no frost up front. I’ve recorded temperatures up to 10 degrees different from the front side of the house to the garden area in the back.

    1. We are sitting on the deck and are amazed at the yard from one side to the other. The forsythia on the south side really popped color today and nothing on the north. And all are healthy and the same age. Crocuses in the open just bloomed but the ones on the south side past weeks ago. Daffodils on the south side are nearly past. I love nature. It truly is wondrous.

  31. A new meteorologist Danielle Vollmar has joined the Channel 5 team from Dallas. She will forecast the weather on weekend mornings.

    TK, have you ever heard of her?

  33. Ch. 5 reporter Amalia Berreda will retire at the end of June.

    I hope we don’t lose Barry or Harvey this year. 🙁

  34. I agree tk also with differences from yard to yard esp if its not been fertilized vs fertilized

  35. Leaning toward the slower timing & colder Euro for the end of the week.

    That set up can produce a rain to snow scenario if the precip. peaks on Friday night.

    1. Something fun to watch for. Even if it doesnt happen. I hope old saltys work slows down so he can post too.

    2. Like I’ve said it can snow tk in April and I do agree with that but for it to cause problems or the everyday person to have a recalection or remember of it in 5 yrs r few and far between or shall I say rare, kinda like 17yrs ago, I enjoy the blog very much and thank you for your hardwork 🙂

    3. TK. What do you think for my drive to Toronto. Leaving at 7 am and planning to go to Syracuse and then north and cross at the Thousand Islands crossing and arrive in Toronto around 5 or so.

      1. Oh dear …..I will hope for anything to be well after you and Hadi are safely on your way.

        1. Thanks Vicki and TK. Keep the heavy rains away too. Don’t want to worry about the basement while I am away too :).

  36. B’s ahead 3-0, though maybe not playing their best.

    Might hit 70 tomorrow in Beantown.

  37. B’s 5-0!! Playing like animals.

    I am also in the middle of a debate about ice thickness at TD Garden. 1.5″ ???

  38. We’re on the road as well Saturday morning, I can’t wait. The camping season begins. 🙂

      1. No, I think Vicki is. However, I want to say Weatherbee, I think thats their name, has the earliest date of April 10th.

        2. My guess was the day my new grand is born. I told my daughter the pressure is on and tomorrow needs to be delivery day.

    3. Have fun Tom. It is supposed to dry out then. Enjoy the week.

      It wasn’t me keeping track of the 70 degree contest.

      1. Keith ???? Ok this is really making me think and I stop that nonsense somewhere around 5:00 pm

            1. It was me!!! Here is the list in date order.

              Weatherbee2 = April 10
              Tom = April 14
              John = April 15
              Amy = April 17
              Kane = April 17
              Keith = April 18
              Vicki = April 18
              Mark = April 19
              Phillip = April 19
              Jimmy James = April 20
              North = April 21
              Shotime = April 22
              Captain = April 23
              Retrac = April 24
              Charlie = April 25
              Matt = April 25
              Weather Wiz = April 26
              Longshot = April 26
              TK= April 27
              Shreedhar = April 28
              Hadi = April 29
              Scott77 = April 30
              Sue = May 1
              Joshua = May 4
              JRW = May 7
              DS = May 12
              Rainshine = May 15
              Old Salty = June 2

  39. I think I’d lose my sanity if I was here, due to the current weather ….

    Alliance, Nebraska :

    Moderate Snow, 32F, 1/2 mile visibility, NE wind at 35 kts, gusting to 44 with a windchill of 17F.

    2. Contrast this with say …..

      Augusta, GA : 73F, DP : 50F and a nice, light south wind at 3 mph.

      Masters tournament I believe is this coming weekend.

      1. Masters indeed begins Thursday with a par 3 tournament on Wednesday. There have been a few comments about baby arrival interfering with the masters from Mac.

  42. Picked Louisville to win it all in the men’s tournament. Got that right. Still not enough points to win my brother’s pool though… 😉

  44. Quite the active warm front/occlusion this morning, but the heavy showers went mostly north and a few south of Marshfield.

  46. In Sudbury we got one big crash of thunder and some rain – I don’t know if there was any lightning, shades were closed.

  47. Noisy rain at 5:00 am – no T&L that I heard.

    Was 68 in Aurora CO yesterday and dropped to 38 and they have 9-11 inches of snow. 18 inches expected in the Dakotas. North, I’m hoping you are not driving into any of that.

    1. I hope so too. Hope no lake effect either…driving during the day so even if it snows hoping for just wet roads.

  48. At 9 am, Albany, NY is already 58F and Mt Washington is 34F. Watch out if that sun comes out appreciably late this morning and this afternoon, we’ll easily surge into the 70s.

  49. Oak trees have budded from Taunton to Attleboro southward, came from Norwood and they r still just a maroon tint there

    1. Like I’ve said wish I could take a pic and paste but still trying to figure that out, help?

        1. 🙂 it’s not really about having people believe me it’s more just being able to post a pic, so annoying anyways 🙂

  50. Sorry for the lack of update.

    I am busy breaking up my forecast areas into 10 square foot sections so as to better forecast the temperatures down to the nearest tenth of a degree and at each level from the surface to the height of the average adult human (before bone loss).

    I am also working on a method of forecasting the emergence of tree buds and leaves. With luck…that will be up by Arbor Day. 😛

      1. Mom speaking here – it’s ok if you don’t update till migraine shows no promise of return. Darn I hate those things. Just the mention of looking at a computer screen with one gave me the willies.

    2. hahahahahahaha

      Will my quarter acre lot be one of the specific forecast areas? If so, will there be a weathercam cause I need to think about starting cleanup. Or better yet, if it is an area, does the NWS provide cleanup just to make sure it looks nice??

  53. Looking forward to that TK ! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Poor Portland, ME ….. 42F, fog and a light east wind.

  55. Hi all
    Well…I really want to win the contest (April 10th). So the only person I know with enough hot air is my wife…so I asked her to go outside and exhale lol. She gave me a look that words cant describe (I guess every married man has seen that look lol) So it looks like I cant cheat my way to the victory. I will play fair.

    2. hmmmmmm – isn’t tomorrow your birthday? I wonder how coal in a Christmas stocking translates to birthdays 😯

      And happy birthday a day early – I hope I am correct???

      1. I had 66.8 – went back to check the dp and it went up to 67.1 in the few minutes that took. 67.6 now so a bit slower. Feels very nice – amazing how many windy days we’ve had the past year or so.

  57. well hehe first day of 70 degrees. to bad im stuck doing math oh well. how about the blizzard out west. my freind moved out there for college and i said you would be sorry. he hates the snow . and i messaged him today saying it hit 70 degrees today for the first time and sunny. and i said i heard your getting a snowstorm. how is it 😛 … He said shut up you jerk….( other words) 😀 i said i told you so. 😛 How weather can make people sour

  58. Yes Vicki…tomorrow is the big day. Coal in my stocking? Don’t give her any ideas! Lol

  60. If Denver’s weather yesterday vs. today does not set a perfect example of the volatility of Spring, then nothing will. 🙂

  61. I think NWS has Friday too warm around here. Upper 30s to middle 40s more likely. Someone sees snowflakes Friday evening IMO.

  62. Pool is officially open, water temp is a balmy 53 degrees, there r smiles on the kids faces 🙂

      1. O yes!! I know it sounds cold and it is but it’s only 5 degrees colder than being at Hampton beach nh in July, about 5 adults and 5 kids have gotten in, should peak in water temp in mid Aug at around 70-75 degrees on average

        2. Hampton’s water is NOT 58 in July. I practically live there in the summer. 😛

          1. It ranges between 58-62 been renting a home off of L street and my uncle owns a store on the walk, been going there since 2001 and when they write down water temps it’s always between say 58-62, been a few years I’ve seen 63-64 but it’s usually not 63-64 there until Aug idk tk

            1. The water temp changes and ranges anywhere from the upper 50s to near 70 (though 70 is rare). Ocean water temp in shallow areas near the shore is not dictated as much by ocean currents as it is by wind direction in the summer.

              Onshore wind (ocean breeze) = warmer water as sun heated water is piled close to the coast.

              Offshore wind (land breeze) = colder water as the heated water is pushed away from the shore and replaced with cold water via upwelling.

        3. my parents open the pool 1st week of may so it warms up before memorial day. gets full sun from about 10am to 5 with sun hitting it from 9 to 6. we have a solar cover that we put on the pool and it heats the water up when the sun hits it and keep the heat in when the sun goes down. it works. average temp in the summer is 70+ though sometimes we put ice cubes in durring july to cool it off some 😉

  63. Thanks for the congrats Tom. Wouldn’t it be great if we could actually predict the first 70 degree day with science rather than my bday? But since nature has a mind of it’s own, I don’t foresee that. Any scientists here think it’s possible?

    1. Yes, 72F at last ob. Marshfield, well at least eastern parts have switched to a seabreeze and my guess is itbhad suddenly dropped to about 55F, but still very nice !!

    1. Wow, well …. I wonder if something similar happens in central and Southern CT and NY tomorrow, because I think they may stay in the warm sector for most of the day before the cold air inevitably works in from the north and east.

  68. Marshfield went from 73F and a NW wind to 52F with a seabreeze in 1 hr !!!!

    Now, this is the far eastern part of town where the airport ob is taken. I’ll guess its still about 60-65 a few miles inland by Rte. 3.

  69. I can assure you Hampton water is not in the 50’s nor is Old Orchard Beach. I really can’t believe that kids would swim in that type of water 🙂

  70. Please see above for my explanation on water temps at Hampton (and other beaches).

    After you do that, go see the new blog!

  71. Hadi there’s been times I’ve been to Hampton beach for Memorial Day weekend and Hampton beach water temps r in the 50’s and there r 100’s or 1,000’s of people in water, Take a deep breath

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