The Spring Fall

161 Comments

4:26PM

70+ for the first time in many areas Tuesday! But it came along with a gusty wind. Still, quite enjoyable. And I hope you did enjoy it, because that short-lived party is about to end. A front will sink southward across the region tonight as another disturbance passes by. This front will then spend a few days south of the region with additional disturbances, keeping it cloudy, much cooler, and occasionally wet. A stronger low pressure system passing just southeast of New England Friday night may even have enough cold air associated with it for mix/snow in parts of the region (timing will be key). Looking ahead to the weekend, looks dry and chilly Saturday, not as cool Sunday, and for those extending the weekend to Patriots Day (Monday), it looks fair and mild. Have to keep a close eye on things heading into the middle of next week as it appears additional back door cold fronts and high pressure to the north may put a lid on any possibility of a lasting warm-up.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain showers arriving west to east well after midnight. Lows around 50. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers end west to east in the morning. Highs 55-60 in the morning then cooling back through the 50s to the upper and middle 40s by late in the day.  Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of rain. Lows 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of sprinkles of rain or drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain south, rain/sleet/snow north. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 40. High 51.

161 thoughts on “The Spring Fall”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Nice ocean temp explanation, it truly is a paradox compared to high temperatures.

    1. Yes it is. I’ve always loved that.

      Hey Charlie… If you don’t mind me asking, what store does he own? If you can’t say here it’s fine. I’m just up there very often from late May through early September.

  2. I’m glad I got to enjoy 1 true spring day on my spring break.
    Looking like another warm up for next week, hopefully it can reach northern Vermont!

    2. Well there’s that 55 I expected there – only a few hours late. Barry still wins. 🙂

    1. Based on that NAM, looks like Mass. Pike northward good for frozen precip at least. Harvey’s “futurecast” looks similar. 🙂

      TK, is the snow potential still there for Earth Day April 22nd? 😀

      1. I haven’t even looked at the 22nd for a couple days. I’ll give it a check and report back a bit later. 🙂

  5. Laredo, TX ….Far, far southern Texas, inland, away from the Gulf of Mexico…..

    107F, dp : 31F, heat index : 99F.

  6. I love the contrast just across New England today. Lower 80s in parts of CT, 3 inches of snow in parts of Maine. 🙂

    1. Indeed ! Also, across a lot of the US. Looks like 100 miles out in the Plains might have taken one from 25F to 75F.

  7. is it ever going to be hot/warm/muggy plse !!!!!!!!! ??? 🙁 im going to migrate else where soon lol

    1. Well Gayle, it’s only April 9. Typically, the muggy warm/hot stuff is more prevalent in the summer. 😉 You knew that. 😀

    3. i know most on here rather not see the heat… but i do… bring it on. i want it to start to go over 80 degrees constantly as of may 17th 😛

  12. Cracks me up some of you are still wishing for snow…Almost a month into Spring. Think it’s time to move on… 🙂

    1. I don’t think anyone is wishing. Its just always possible in April and its just a good idea not to assume it isn’t. If I’m not mistaken all or the majority who understand its possible to snow are the ones who love the weather no matter what.

      1. I think it’s possible for it to snow but it’s rare for it to cause a problem or really accumulate, I wouldn’t suprise me if it snowed out, I’ve seen snowflakes in Fort Worth Tx 1 yr in April, now to get legit accumulation,that’s a whole other story 🙂

        1. More times than not it’s like WOW look outside it’s snowing!!! But that’s usually it except on rare occasions

    2. I think it would be really neat if we had snow in May this year. 🙂

      Wishing or not, weather is going to do what it’s going to do.

      I can wish for a heatwave in January but it’s not likely to happen. 😛

  13. Snow ain’t gonna happen folks unless you’re in the mountains. Look for temps back in the 60’s and 70’s next week:)

      1. Now TK. That’s a silly question. I just don’t make statements and guesses without support. Show me guidance that is calling for accumulating snow in southern new england. If you want to find that for this upcoming event, you’ll have to travel north. It’s not happening and I’ve been right thus far.

        1. Are you seeing temps consistently 60s/70s next week? That’s what I thought TK was asking but perhaps was wrong. However, curious to know about the temp part since everyone has been right re snow.

          1. Temps won’t consistently be in the 60s and 70s next week. Nothing is consistent about early spring. Temps will be a roller coaster ride. Near 60 Saturday, 55 Sunday, into the 60s Monday, 70+ on Tuesday , 60 Wednesday, etc. However, air temps are certainly modifying and slowly but surely temps are warming even though intermittent cool shots will be upon us.

            1. That’s what I thought and why I was asking for clarification since your comment read consistent to me. Thanks!

  14. Its nice to see all the moisture in the central US. This could be repeated the middle of next week.

    Perhaps, unlike the last two summers, where the central US has baked under a huge ridge and New England has sat on the easternmost periphery of it with very warm but relatively dry airmasses (lots of 50s and low 60F dewpoints)…….. perhaps we are in for a summer pattern of a central US trof and an east coast ridge (Bermuda High) with very warm and humid conditions (60s and 70F dewpoints).

      1. I love that occasional setup with the due south wind that brings in the clean, tropical ocean air. There’s no smog, its humid, but its not extremely hot, there’s usually a ventilating breeze and the sky is a fairly deep blue.

        1. In framingham ;). We need to move near the shore. And we can’t even go this year in summer.

              1. I for one do not like tropical air, clean or otherwise. I want my air coming straight from the Pacific or the Poles.

  15. JC Monahan will be the new co-host of Chronicle and Cindy Fitzgibbon will be the new met on the weekday morning Eyeopener sometime late May/early June I believe.

    I wondered what happened to Cindy when she suddenly left Ch. 25. 😉

  17. We’ve got out of town visitors coming Friday through Saturday. Sounds like it is not going to be so warm for them. They’re from London, but have been down in Florida for the past week enjoying the sun and warmth.

    Is the consensus that Saturday will be a decent day? I think we will be doing the tourist thing with them – Quincy Market, shopping on Newbury Street, dining in Davis Square. It sounds line a jacket and sunglasses day. Too bad the warmth won’t reappear. They’ll be heading back to 40s and 50s after enduring one of the worst winters in a long time…
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/will-this-be-the-coldestwinter-for-50-years-8463982.html

  18. Good evening, have not dropped in a while and glad to see most of the old crew here. Old Salty have a bead on this precip for Friday yet? GO SOX.

    1. Hi Captain – have missed you. Haven’t seen some in a while including OS 🙁 🙁 . I miss shotime’s garden help 🙁

  19. Made an edit to the forecast to introduce colder air for Friday and some frozen precip. for northern parts of the forecast area.

    Also in the longer range, leaning away from warm weather next week except maybe a day or 2. Starting to see signs of high pressure to north which is a COOL set-up.

    Sorry folks, this is more like what April usually is around here. 🙂

  20. I’m putting the snowblower away for the season, this week! Nighty night snowbeast, see you next winter old girl.

    2. It didn’t take long for my fathers snowblower to get packed to the back of the shed, we put it away 3 weeks ago and you can’t even see it bc the spring/summer stuff has slowly buried it esp with just opening the pool, all 1st visits r about complete, 2nd visits will begin in a week in a half, one of my properties is receiving there 1st mowing of the year today, the house is in Barrington RI, most of my customers have there sprinkler systems turned on this month and start watering in about 2-3 weeks, won’t be long now 🙂

  21. Thanks, TK.

    In my opinion, we are having typical spring weather in New England. Thunder in some areas early yesterday morning; beautiful, mild temp. during the day albeit rather windy; cloudy, cool and showery today and more of that, I guess, for the near future.

    I am looking forward to some – I say the word “some” HHH weather for the summer. As Vicki said above, it wouldn’t be summer without it. Late May – late Aug. is usually when one would see it around here – of course, there are exceptions, of course. Mother Nature does what she wants. My perfect mid-summer day would be temps. in the upper 80’s maybe hitting 90; with a sunny but hazy sky with a wind out of the southwest blowing around 15 – 20 mph. giving some ventilation to the heat. And there would be humidity, too. A day or 2 of this type weather and a big but non-destructive thunderstorm to give us a few days of clear, cooler weather in the 70’s w/drier conditions. 🙂

    Note: if one was living along the south coast – w/a southwesterly wind, espec. in the early to mid part of the summer, it may not be as hot as it would inland.

    1. Rainshine – a great description of summer. Even with HHH being my least favorite of the weather conditions, I’d still miss it. Reading your comment made me feel like summer!!

  22. Geez in Milford and trees barley have any maroon tint and lawns here are 10-12 days behind some of my other properties, crazy

  23. Barry was the only one to forecast 70+ yesterday days in advance and he was spot on. Kudos Barry:)

  24. Hey TK, don’t forget the 22nd…Earth Day. If it’s all clear, then I will probably put away my shovel for the season. 🙂

    1. Completely agree. Not sure what the others are seeing but any accumulating snow will confined to north country. I don’t get too excited when a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mix in with a very chilly rain.

      1. The others are seeing climatology, not specific events.

        If I see the threat of accumulating snow from a specific event, I will mention it.

    1. My thoughts exactly!
      Another sign of spring ~ the street sweeper just passed by my house 🙂 Now if he’d pass by about 5 more times, we just might see the pavement again!

  29. Arod it’s this thing about mets that won’t really ever declare winter over until Aug, last yr in late April it was 70 degrees out no sign of winter and still yet mets say anythings possible, it’s the same thing every year but in reality winter been over for 3 weeks , and usually is over in March 🙂

  32. Since we have a lull in weather, I thought I’d add a new word to our growing list of weather vocab. I’ve been thinking long and hard and came up with

    POTENTIAL

    I decided to simply use Webster’s definition since it is straightforward enough. That is:
    1: existing in possibility : capable of development into actuality
    2: expressing possibility; specifically : of, relating to, or constituting a verb phrase expressing possibility, liberty, or power by the use of an auxiliary with the infinitive of the verb (as in “it may rain”)

    Note that saying it may rain or, in particular, that it has the potential to rain, does not mean it will; and even more, it does not mean you want it to. It simply means the potential exists.

    hmmmmmmmmm—-I’m off to look up the definition of snarky….it might apply here as well 😉

      1. Its easy for the written word to be taken in the wrong light. My point was it makes far more sense to say a potential exists when in fact it does than to say it does not exist when in fact it does. Now if that isn’t confusing, I don’t know what is :). Bottom line anyone with a modicum of sense knows the potential for snow exists in April.

    2. You basically made the post I’ve been thinking about making – over and over.

      Snarky is an understatement.

      However you may need to re-post the definition of “potential” a few more times. I believe many people have trouble retaining that one. 🙂

      1. hahahahaha Arod just proved your point.

        I’m thinking of incorporating a course in Reading comprehension 101 too…..open enrollment.

      1. key words are “………………….and even more, it does not mean you want it to. It simply means the potential exists.”

        1. Problem is, you can use potential for anything. There is a difference between potential and reality…sure, it COULD potentailly snow in July but the reality says that probability is almost nil. In weather, it’s like an excuse I guess to cover yourself. 🙂

          1. WW – hey you are getting there – you acknowledge that the potential TK (and others) says for snow in April exists…..now let’s toss in logic and I think we are just about there 🙂

              1. Oh I comprehended what your definition said. I’m poking fun because I still feel when the word potential is used here, often times it’s still wishcasting 😀

  33. Looks like a beautiful sunny weekend with temps in the mid and upper 50’s, can’t rule out 60 degrees on Sun 🙂

  34. If today’s 12z EURO is getting my hopes up for next week and doesnt deliver, I may have to badmouth it and go back to the GFS. Heck, I dont even need it to verify locally, just in south-central PA !!

    1. Tom – I forget sorry – are you going to Hershey Park area? Amish country? Gettysburg area? All of the aforementioned?

      1. Yes …. It looks nice and mild to warm in the east with nearly the exact same set up as now. Cold in the Plains, warm in the east, stormy in the Great Lakes.

        1. Your family and mine seem to enjoy the same areas. Its lovely there. We took an RV so were not as adventurous as you. But enjoyed the park and The Amish are fascinating. And my favorite is Gettysburg. I’ve always been fascinated by the battle.

          I hope your weather is perfect and you have a lovely vacation.

          1. Thanks, quite looking forward to it. The park is open on weekends, so the plan is Sunday for that. After that, the chocolate museum, amish country, etc……… May get some summery 80s if the EURO verifies, I think Todd has an 80F on his 7 day tonight. Of course, this time of year, I always worry that the long range misses the back door cold airmasses out of eastern Canada.

            1. My oldest decided she wanted to become Amish after we visited. I think it has to do with the horses …….

  35. Having fun doing yard work! Bought 5 bags of mulch and going back for more. Also got some winter pansies for the planters on the front steps. Speaking of the word potential, my front yard really has the potential to clean up nicely and look beautiful this Spring! ;-). Just having a little fun. Hope everyone is enjoying the sunshine.

  37. Of course you can use potential for anything. But when I forecast I use it, or any term, in accordance with the method of reasoning I developed combining my own thinking, my experience in college, and learning from my elders in the field. It’s not like I worked hard or anything for 5 years to earn my degree in the field, or the 23 years of experience since I have obtained that degree.

    Does the degree or the experience make me a perfect forecaster? Hardly. In fact, not even close. But I know better than to make statements without science or facts to back them up, at least when I am being serious about the information I present here. It’s one thing to joke about it, and I do that quite often. Hopefully people can tell the difference. 🙂

  38. I’ll be updating a little later. My son has a performance at the local middle school this evening…

    If the word “potential” should show up in my next discussion, please note that is POTENTIALLY being used to just cover my butt… 😉

      1. He is in the chorus. He sings like he could be on broadway. 🙂

        He also plays tin whistle and is learning piano but tonight he’s just singing with the group.

        He’s also introducing the other middle school (we have 2 middle schools in town and they get together to do this show).

        It varies from place to place (both middle schools or the high school). Back on the tornado day June 1 2011 it was the evening of that show when he was in 6th grade. I took an amazing photo of one of the super cells at sunset. Let me see if I can find it and post it here.

        2. More than exciting TK. My grandson is only 5 but really interested in dance and singing and piano – although too young for formal lessons. Have a wonderful time. If possible I’d love to see even a short video clip.

      1. TK we all know that the word ‘potential’ is used to cover the person’s butt who made the statement. Heck, it could potentially snow in July but it doesn’t happen. That way, if I’m wrong, at least I used the word ‘potential’ LOL 😀

  39. I totally get it and I appreciate and value your knowledge and experience as a meteorologist. I’m giddy with Spring fever at the moment or maybe I’m just delirious from all the antihistamines I have to take to battle the pollen which has wreaked havoc on my eyes and nose.

  40. Boy, look at those thunderstorms in PA and approaching NYC in the warmer, more unstable airmass. Those look rather intense.

    Rain in central NY does not look promising for Sox game later on.

  41. As Tom alluded to, if the EURO verifies, temps could climb well into the 80s by midweek. Not ready to buy into that solution just yet but there is growing confidenct of at least 60s/70s for next week. With that said, there is still the ‘potential’ that it could snow. Right? LOL 😀

    1. Picking up all the flowers this Friday to be planted Sat and Sun, looks like a nice weekend as of now

  42. The CPC outlook is for well below normal temps for the Upper Midwest, Great Plains and Rockies but just above normal for the east coast.

  43. Checking in from swampy Washington DC. I’m working at a conference. It’s brutally warm outside, at least compared to Boston. DC is a swamp, and the Brits were right to offer hazard pay to their embassy staff in the days when there was no AC. There’s almost no wind, it’s often hotter than you know what, and it’s always sticky, and that lasts from April through October, basically. Give me Boston weather over DC. Yes, I’ll even take 40s and gray over this.

    1. Hmmm, I don’t mind waiting until late May or June for the HHH stuff to arrive here. I think it’s too early for that here, ‘though we could still get it, of course. Try to stay cool, Joshua and enjoy the conference!

  44. New York City area under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Is New York going to get a lot of heavy storms again this yr.? Seems like the past few yrs. they have a lot of severe weather.

  56. There was lightning during the February blizzard here in Boston (thundersnow?). That was my first (and hopefully, last) experience with a thunderstorm for 2013.

    I am not a fan of thunderstorms like others here, but I do find it fascinatingly scary during snowstorms. 😀

  57. I’m seeing a warming trend around the 20th of April, could be a few days in a row of 70+ but seabreezes will keep coastal communities in the low 50’s

    1. Rain delays and rain-outs bring back memories of a game (or rain-out actually) in 1980 when they were going to try to get the game in, but it kept on pouring so they finally called the game before it started.

      But before all of that, Orioles catcher Rick Dempsey put on a fun display of tarp sliding for us all. Yup I was there as a 13 year old (same age my son is now). 🙂

  59. I’m not sure if anybody knows how dangerously close southern NH and northern MA will be to getting a few inches of snow a couple times between Thursday night and Friday night.

      1. Up to a few inches of snow including Concord NH.

        I thought accumulating snow was done except for the mountains. 😉

        1. Well, I was probably worse …….. As I recall, back on/around Feb 1st, I blogged something to the effect that winter was over. LOL !!!!!!!!

          1. Tom Tom Tom.. You know better than that! 😛

            But WHW will forgive you this time. 😉

  60. Well it has come around once again — I am talking about the 13 year and 17 year cicadas. Time for the invasion. I believe yesterday I read the 13 yr cicada is found in the SE US and the 17 yr is further north, from the Carolinas up to CT, upstae NY and perhaps western MA. I think they emerge from the ground when the ground temp reaches 64 or 65(?).

    There are literally billions of these things. The males make all the noise and I heard today on some talk show that the noise can get to 90-100 decibels (equivalent to a rock concert). I am not sure what to say about a specie that hangs around in the ground and comes out after 17 years, mates and then dies right after mating.

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