Thursday AM Update

148 Comments

7:33AM

Full discussion and new forecast again this afternoon, including Boston Marathon weather.

This is just a quick update with a few highlights.

Unsettled into Saturday but the only really wet day will be Friday, but enough cold air for some sleet/snow to work into parts of southern NH and maybe even far northern MA. Accumulation looks like it will be limited to the Concord NH area and possibly some higher elevations of north central MA where up to 1 or 2 inches of snow/sleet may build up between early Friday morning and late Friday night.

Improving weather later in the weekend, though Saturday will not be a terrible day. It just may feature some cloudiness & a few spot showers with lingering instability.

Early next week looks fair and warmer, but we may be playing a game again with a boundary of much cooler air to the north and of course the threat of ocean breezes too. More on this later.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast. Patchy drizzle or sprinkles of light rain possible. Temperatures holding in the 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, except some sleet and snow at times southern NH and the MA border inland. Temperatures cooling into the 30s mainly north of  Route 2 and away from the shore, 40s elsewhere. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/mix showers. Highs around 50. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 56.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 63.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 54.

148 thoughts on “Thursday AM Update”

  2. Here is my repost.

    Well it has come around once again — I am talking about the 13 year and 17 year cicadas. Time for the invasion. I believe yesterday I read the 13 yr cicada is found in the SE US and the 17 yr is further north, from the Carolinas up to CT, upstae NY and perhaps western MA. I think they emerge from the ground when the ground temp reaches 64 or 65(?).

    There are literally billions of these things. The males make all the noise and I heard today on some talk show that the noise can get to 90-100 decibels (equivalent to a rock concert). I am not sure what to say about a specie that hangs around in the ground and comes out after 17 years, mates and then dies right after mating.

    1. Thanks Longshot – I heard a report about them on the Today show. I couldn’t help wonder if there is something that keeps them from being in our area or if they are just on the move this way. I loved your last sentence.

  3. Thanks TK. Leaving here at 6:30 tomorrow, out to Syracuse and then north the Thousland Islands crossing. Hope to be in Toronto by 5. Hopefully nothing terribly crazy for weather on the way!

  5. Concord nh? That’s 125 miles from me 🙂 I really would like to see a woodshill south and wood hills north, it’s like telling somebody in concord the weather for Providence, and isn’t concord nh south central nh? Again I think we’re grabbing for something that’s not there for the forecasted area but since it’s in New England we will apply potential, it may sound like I’m bitching but I’m not just suggestions 🙂

    1. I actually do mention areas. I did above. You were not forecast to get accumulating snow.

  7. TK – as always – a exceptional job and thanks for the time and effort and patience you put into the blog 🙂

  8. Now today r the days I remember as a kid that were blahhhh drizzly 45-50 degree day ugh, at least it doesn’t last long, 50’s-60’s for weekend and next week,

      1. 60s and 70s next week Charlie and if a backdoor cool front doesn’t make it this far south we could nudge 80 😀

        1. Into the 80s in a few spots Wed if we don’t get backdoored. But you can tell by my day 7 (FWIW) #s what my very early leaning is.

          1. I saw that you forecasted 54 for highs. Perhaps my days end it may drop to 54 but I think highs will start out exceeding 70 before the backdoor cool front swings through. Thus my high is about 20 degrees warmer than your forecasted high.

            1. I am glad you have the timing of the frontal passage down 7 days in advance. Even better than Harvey. 😉

  10. Should I post daily updates from Orlando like longshot did 🙂 Looks rainy over the weekend but much better by Monday, so maybe I will skip posting on the crappy days.

    2. Have fun Hadi, can’t wait to get to Jamaica on Saturday! You still have Cuba to look forward to as well!

  11. TK…sorry for beating a dead horse here, but any other snow threats after Friday or is it definitely all clear for the season? There is still plenty of cold air in Canada but doesn’t really look like the core of it is headed for SNE…more like the Midwest, Plains and Rockies.

    2. Climatology says yes.

      But starting to think the all clear will sound by month’s end.

          1. With temps into the 60s, 70s, 80s next week you can throw your climatology out the window. Although if you want to play that game, climatology in mid and late April favors green, not white 😀

  12. Yes there could be accumulating snow in April for SNE 1982, 1987, and 1997 for example. 2013 will not be added to that list with April’s that have had accumulating snow.

  14. I gotta be honest guys, this snow potential vs. no snow discussion is getting kinda old. TK, u have been informative and have taken a conservative approach in giving your snow potentials this month according to your experience and knowledge. You have by no means guaranteed snow in any area. Others have declared with certainty that it will not snow. While I personally don’t think it will snow anymore, I realize the potential is still there and leave the door open regardless of what the models are showing. Im just surprised some are declaring snow is over with so much certainty given this is a weather blog with so much knowledge and thoughtful thinking involved throughout the year.

    3. Agreed. The potential will always be there in most months here, as we saw with the 10/31 storm in 2011 and snowfalls in May in other years.

    4. My experience and knowlege combined with long term outlook guarantees that there will be no more accumulating snow here in southern new england for the remainder of the spring season 😀

  16. Charlie….you out there?? The forsythia on the north side of my house had absolutely no yellow yesterday. I am positive of this because my desk is in a window that is not more than 10 feet from them. And today they all have yellow buds showing up. Happens quickly, that’s for sure. I noticed my crab apple tree is budding also. And I’ve seen several dogwoods bloomed from Holliston to Wayland. Used to be when we drove to SC every April vacation we would not see dogwoods or weeping willows until we hit NJ turnpike.

  18. I am going with my gut on saying no accumulating snow for April this year. Yes it can snow in April and even May as was the case in 1977. Everything has got to come together perfectly this time of year to get accumulating snow.
    For what its worth Henry Margusity has us and the mid Atlantic in the area where severe storms are possible on next Thursday.

    1. I love thunderstorms BUT moving to Tx for 5 yrs and then moving back It’s very tough to get excited, the anount of rain, lightning and hail that would come out of these storms was amazing, no comparison to here, when I lived in Tx from Mar-May always BIG storms weekly, potential hail or tornadoes also weekly, so again and moving back here it was one of the 1st weather related things we noticed was no severe tstorm warnings weekly and noticed when we got tstorms here they r on a much smaller scale with most just getting rain, a positive for my wife, she’s no longer afraid of tstorms like when we lived in dallas, take it easy jj 🙂

      1. That’s all a positive to me, Charlie. I agree with your wife. I like to enjoy a storm without the fear of devastation!

  19. So is anyone watching the Masters or having a Masters Party. I haven’t checked the weather in Augusta but suspect my husband has 🙂

    1. Hi Vicki…. Mark Leishman from Australia who won The Travelers Championship in Wethersfield, CT last year is leading the tournament. Tiger Woods obviously the favorite and I always said the Masters is where he will win his next major since that
      course sets up well for his game.

      1. Thanks JJ and Ooops – I should be recording it then right?? Will it be on the golf channel tonight?? I have never been a Tiger fan but I’d like to see him come back and win another Masters. Well, I’d really like to see Couples win one cause he is so darned cute but …….

        1. Vicki…. ESPN has the first and second rounds 3-7pm with a replay 8-11pm Thursday and Friday night
          CBS coverage Saturday 3-7 and Sunday 2-7.

          2. I found it and it’s recording. He lost his cell phone yesterday and I found it and told him I was holding it ransom for a nice dinner out. Workers came today to repair damage from ice dams last february and I rescued his golf clubs from the work area. And now I’m recording the golf……..I figure I have earned a VERY nice dinner out 🙂

  20. Largo FL
    86 degrees
    Sunny
    30% chance thunderstorms

    Sunny all week with slight chances of T storms. Enjoy the weather in MA! It’s awesome here!

    2. TJ. There is the ‘potential’ for some snow in your area of Florida. LOL. Had to say it. Just busting. Enjoy your time 😀

    1. Thanks Guys!

      Actually it would be pretty cool to see a little snow down here. I would enjoy all the Floridians freaking out!!

  22. More sun than I had forecast especially Mass Pike southward (not totally sunny but intervals of it). This is allowing temps to get into 50-55 range in most of that area. Yes, even in Charlie’s yard. 🙂

    1. Hey thanks tk 🙂 53.7 alot of high clouds mixed with low stratus clouds allowing some sun to break through

      1. Yes it got a little drier down there than I expected, but I suspect that is due to the lack of sustained NE flow strong enough to transport low level moisture that far south right now. We have lots of clouds NW of Boston. It is certainly mostly cloudy, but we have had a few breaks of sun about. But some NE flow and also increasing high & mid level clouds from the west rapidly by late afternoon will put an end to the sun party long before sunset.

  23. Hi Charlie-Any recommendations for repelling skunks that are tearing apart my front lawn. I know I have to take care of the grubs as well, but is there anything else I can do?

    1. If you get rid of the grubs the skunks will no longer dig or rotor till your lawn, most grub damage actually happens from skunks raccoons just bc of there sharp claws that just rip the lawn out, they smell them, go to Lesco and buy a product called dylox, it will take care of your grub problem but remember to apply a grub preventitive in June to fight the Next grub cycle which is Sept Oct

    2. I don’t know of anything to repel skunks although I’m sure there is, not sure how good the products work for something like that

            1. They do – my dad ended up in the hospital for days when he shot one as a youngster and it shot him right back…..

                1. Our first dog got it twice – first time was two nights before I delivered our oldest. Pregnant and skunk smell is a nasty combination.

  24. 1/4 to 1 inch of sleet accumulation possible in southern NH to right along the MA border tomorrow. Looks like the layer of cold air will be fairly thick and should bring temps right to the middle to lower 30s at the surface (colder just above). Remains to be seen if icing is an issue when it goes to rain midday on, but I’d lean away from that with milder ground at this time of year. Snow will be mixed in over these areas too but most of the frozen accumulation will be ice pellets. Snow of 1-3 inches Concord area and more north of there, 3-6 inches heading into the Lakes region and Mountains.

      1. In a pattern like this, somebody always gets some late skiing in.

        Last year, the thought of anything that close was a distant memory in March.

        1. That’s for sure. I talked to my brother Easter day and he thought they’d have 2 more weeks at Sunapee – I’m thinking he’ll get a bonus.

  25. Early signs of significant late season cold shot around April 20-21 weekend. Perhaps the last freeze of the season will be taking place around that time. The average last frost date for Boston is April 11 through 20.

    1. I was hoping for a freeze, TK. The mosquitoes are out here – not as bad as this time last year but bad enough. Last year there was a freeze after they came out and we didn’t really see them again for many weeks. Hoping for the same this time.

        1. I have one of those tennis racket zappers – $5.00 at the dollar store type places – best darned invention. I sit on the deck and zap them – it is amazing how easily I am amused.

          2. My husband was out last evening and said he said mosquitoes were out. I didn’t believe him. Now I do.

      1. It is indeed a wedge. I saw video. Looked like the segment I saw had it over mostly open country but there were buildings not far from it. Hopefully damage is minimal. I did see some power flashes in the video.

  27. Vicki, when does your husbands golf league start? Mine starts up april 23rd, less than 2 weeks away. The last 2 years have been miserable out there in April and early May. Even last year with the warm spring, tuesdays always seemed to average below normal. Hoping for a better year!

    1. He starts the 25th and he’s playing Sandy Burr in Wayland so my guess is it is very wet and nasty. Don’t know if your course is in a wet area but you are right that it is raw this early.

      1. Oh cool! Same week. Yea the date is tentative since the course we play, Brookmeadow in Canton, tends to be very wet.

  28. Working on update soon.

    Lowering temps for Friday and taking the sleet area southward right into the immediate Boston area. The interior NW suburbs may see 1/2 inch or more of sleet accumulation. Boston itself may even get a coating of bb’s. The cold air just above the surface is going to be in a very thick layer and very hard to dislodge. It advects in here tonight and then sits for many hours.

    Rapid destabilization tomorrow afternoon while the cold air hangs on means there is even the remote possibility of “thundersleet” (term used by a friend of mine during our discussion a short while ago).

  29. Really turned out to be a nice afternoon, spending time with my nephew outside, partly cloudy 55.1 degrees 🙂

    1. 51.4 here and we have seen some sun – darker clouds moving in now but you are right Charlie – it is a nice day

  30. NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BARRE…FITCHBURG…AYER
    435 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
    NOON EDT FRIDAY…MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
    MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY.

    * LOCATIONS…NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

    * HAZARD TYPES…LIGHT ICING FROM SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH…ALONG WITH
    AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

    * TIMING…WINTRY MIX BEGINS LATE TONIGHT…AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
    TO RAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

    * IMPACTS…LIGHT COATING OF ICE ON BRANCHES…WIRES AND SOME
    ROADS. MOST OF THE ICING WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE
    1000 FEET IN NORTHERN WORCESTER AND NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

    * WINDS…EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
    SNOW…SLEET OR ICE. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
    OF SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS…PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
    FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
    EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND
    WALKING DIFFICULT…BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE…ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
    AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING…MOTORISTS
    NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE
    SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

    1. I’m not sure about their timing of precip type though.

      Here it says the frozen stuff is first then transitions to rain by late morning. Their zone forecasts have it reverse. Rain first, then sleet in the afternoon.

      Eh???

        1. oops – sorry TK – I saw this first and then scrolled up and saw your comments…..thundersleet – never have experienced it and would love to.

  33. Dewpoints crashing in northern MA …… Falling into the mid 20s, can almost see where the temps can fall quickly when the precip arrives.

    1. It happens that way and that is one of the things that screwed me on the March 8 storm. I won’t make that mistake again. 🙂

      1. TK if you don’t mind my asking did your son take formal voice / singing lessons and if so what age did he start?

          1. Interesting. My grandson does as well and I was telling my daughter about your son so she asked me to see. Thank you

            1. Sometimes it just happens that way. I’m a drummer – never took a lesson.

              Now I’m no Buddy Rich by any stretch, but I can play. 🙂

              Growing up with rock bands practicing in my basement may have had a SLIGHT impact. 😛

              1. Right….just slight. I love drums…..listening ..I have no musical talent. And I do think its a gift and not something learned

              2. i like the better rock. what i mean by that is that they know what dynamics are. pianno to fortissimo.

    1. I’m not saying anything….I really won’t….I’m not saying it …..but wow more extreme weather. And that’s all ill say.

      I don’t have the answer to your question because not sayi no anything is using up all of my thought process. Where is OS. I think he’d love this.

          1. I have never even remotely heard of him but I will take the first guess…the first actual storm chaser?

    3. I haven’t thought this April has been crazy at all and hasnt been any different here than other typical Aprils, I feel like it’s been very typical, warm cool drizzly sunny cloudy, that’s April 🙂

  37. Days are up to 13hrs and 16 min’s of daylight tommorrow, same amount of daylight as late Aug, sunrise 6:09am and sunset is 7:25pm, have a good night all 🙂

    1. I can’t see on iPad. Will check in morning. However he is a global warming advocate……correct?

      1. I’m not really sure what his stance is on GW and whether or not man has much impact. If I were to guess, he’s probably open to any possibility.

        He was just noting the wildness of this April, but to be honest, I have seen months more wild than this one. I just think that a lot of it being focused in the Midwest has put it more in the open for that area to see…

        Spring 1983 was probably comparable to this one.

  39. It appears if guidance is correct most of the rain falls between noon and 6pm Friday evening, with only isolated to scattered showers in the morning, would you concur tk?

    1. The 00z NAM does have lighter and broken precip. in the morning but I’m not sure this is 100% right. Either way, heaviest slug should be in the afternoon hours. For your area, essentially all rain. May have a few ice pellets mix in but it’s a stretch.

      1. Yeah I just saw the latest nam, looks to me like a good amount of rain, some areas could pick up over an inch maybe 2, will see thanks tk 🙂

  40. TK. Latest thoughts for my drive tomorrow? Still leaving by 7, if I can get my wife and daughter to finishing packing tonight 🙂

    1. Wet. The only potential road impact will be along the MA/NH border northward sometime during the day from sleet. But even that would be short-lived as recent warmth has heated the pavement enough to not allow any ice pellets to stay very long without melting. So expect it to be wet, but passable.

      1. Ok good. Leaving by 7:30 I think at this point. Hope to be to Syracuse by 12:30 and in Canada by about 3:30 and to Toronto by 6ish. I think you guys will have an active afternoon here. Last time I did this drive last August was when there was Tornado warnings going on during a Friday night and I think one even touched down on Block Island. It won’t be that active tomorrow, but some heavy rain in a short time.

Comments are closed.