See-Saw Spring

126 Comments

4:26PM

More changes. Sounds like a broken record. But it’s normal for this time of year, moreso than any. As our Friday cold storm (rain & some mixed-in sleet especially north of Boston) goes on, I write about what is coming up during the next several days. This system will be winding down this evening as the heaviest moisture moves rapidly northeastward, out of southern New England. Lingering low level moisture with an onshore wind and mid level moisture on the back edge of the storm system will still hold the threat of wet weather in here into the evening.

The Weekend: Drier air works in at the surface but upper level low pressure elongated west to east and stretching just north of the region will send a couple disturbances across southern New England (Saturday night and again late Sunday). After early clouds break on Saturday, more arrive at night along with a chance of a few showers of rain/mix. More sun is expected Sunday but clouds may again fill-in later in the day with the next disturbance.

Monday (Boston Marathon & Patriots Day): High pressure overhead means light wind and milder air but the coast likely turns much cooler with a sea breeze developing. Early call for Boston Marathon weather is for dry conditions, lots of sun, but starting out chilly in the morning, in the 30s with light wind. During the race the temperatures should rise into the 50s with light variable winds, but approaching Boston there should be a sea breeze from the east or southeast with temperatures cooling back toward 50.

Tuesday-Friday: It wants to be warm, but it’s not that easy in the Spring in New England, especially near the coast. So while the upper air pattern supports warm temperatures, we need to keep a close eye on the ocean for sea breezes and back door cold fronts. Eventually a front will move in from the west, and there are some computer model differences on how this will take place, and when. The front may get close, then get shoved back to the west, before making another approach late week. With all this uncertainty, a low to medium confidence forecast will follow this discussion in regards to the extended period. Expect changes and updates to it in the days ahead. Please do not put too much stock in the temperatures for the Tuesday-Friday period next week. They are a 1-digit generalization based on a lower than average confidence forecast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH EVENING: Cloudy with lingering periods of rain and some drizzle possible. Sleet may still be mixed in with any briefly moderate rain areas mostly north of  Boston. Temperatures holding steady 35-40 most areas except 40-45 South Coast &  Cape Cod. Wind E shifting to N, 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coastal areas, some higher gusts.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-38 but may hold around 40 near the South Coast. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning, sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 53-58. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers of rain or mixed rain/sleet. Lows 33-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon then more clouds developing late day. Highs 56-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 57.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/t-storms. Low 58. High 78.

126 thoughts on “See-Saw Spring”

  1. Thanks TK and I agree that this is – to me – the most changeable weather time of the year. Makes it interesting, doesn’t it?

    1. For sure. I used to “dislike” Spring. No longer the case. I love every season.

      1. I never liked HHH. We didnt have AC Now I like it but not sure it has as much to do with AC as just learning to appreciate everything we have. I always loved spring. Just looking at the new growth as it emerges is awe inspiring.

        1. One place we differ. I love HHH. There is nothing like that red-ball sunset on a hot evening. 🙂

          1. Ahhh but I agree. I just didnt used to like it. And those mornings when it starts hotter than it should be midday and you sit on the deck with a cup of coffee and can barely breathe because the air is so thick but it feels somehow right.

            Although if you would be happy living in the south in summer we will have to differ. Everyone has to stay inside and I just don’t like being inside and missing what’s happening outside

            1. I love being involved in what is happening out there…

              It’s one thing to be tucked in during a freezing cold winter night, but when we’re in the warm season, I want to be involved!

              1. I even like being outside on a winter night but when its cold and dark the world feels like a blanket.

  2. Thanks tk, weird! Temp of the pool temp actually went up to 54 degrees no idea how that happened since its been around 40 degrees all day, anyways thanks again tk

    1. Northern Maine will change in the next few hours… 4-7 inches up there about to fall, or just underway now.

    1. It’s WAY out in the future, but I could see Friday as that type of day that feels like Summer only to end with a blast of cold air at night or next day…

  5. Thanks TK. Made it into Canada north of Watertown, NY about 4 and got to Toronto around 7. On the bridge to Canada and all along Lake Ontario to close to Toronto, there was a lot of ice accretion on the trees and many broken branches and trees leaning over. My Aunt lost a big pine tree in her yard. Roads were ok though with a temp of 36. Still recovering from the white knuckle driving in western Mass this morning. How much rain did you guys get in Boston?

    3. That western MA situation was worse than I had anticipated.

      There has been mostly 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain along with some ice pellets mixed in. The main action is done in the Boston area.

  6. Hello from Orlando, easy flight and the boys were great.

    Current temp- 83 and mostly cloudy
    DP-68
    Wind-8 mph from the SE

    Stella tastes even better tonight!!

    My parents are at my house and dad called to say it was miserable today.

    3. Have fun Hadi and give me some tips when you get back. We just booked a Disney trip for October. 🙂

        1. Glad to hear you made it safely to Toronto North. Say hello to my inlaws in Jamaica if you see them. 🙂

                1. Are you there? I can’t remember when you arrive. And runaway bay sounds like a name for a romance novel OR a really good show name for my daughters last horse who was a bay 🙂

  7. For the Marathon, I believe the entrants will 1) NOT get the benefit of any tale wind and if there is a breeze at all, they may running “into it”, and 2) experience temperature changes where they could see temps at the finish line that are 8 degrees lower than what they might feel in Metrowest. but overall it should be a decent Marathon weather day.

  8. So far Logan received 0.3″ of rain today but I suspect it will end up around 0.5″ or a bit more as Tom suggested. It seems the 1″+ amounts were not realized. I guess the heavy rain area moved away much quicker than anticipated?…not that it was expected to stall or anything either.

    At least the Red Sox won’t lose again tonight as the game has been postponed. 😀

    1. Btw, no sleet was reported at Logan but not sure if other areas of the city had any brief mix at times.

      1. I had sleet in Westwood briefly. It was kind of neat. No more snowstorms in sight. Enjoy spring for the next 7 days.

  10. Pete in his evening blog warns gardeners not to do any planting right now. Just based on the long range CPC alone, it makes good sense.

    1. I agree Makes good sense not to garden for another month or more. I have had more spring than I count with what I call ghosts in my yard – everything covered with sheets. And I’ve lost too many plants with a surprise frost to take the chance

      1. And then you have me that plants and has never had a problem, every year there seems to be a few nights that do dip close to freezing but bc alot of trees are around keeps it 3-5 degrees warmer, I believe it has to get into the mid 20’s to affect them and I don’t expect to see that till late Nov, a couple years ago I had a night dip to 30 degrees and had no effect on any plants, will see 🙂

  12. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What airborne article does NOT cause allergic asthma?
    A. Pet Hair
    B. Mold Spores
    C. Pollen
    D. Cigarette Smoke

    I got one right! Answer later today.

  13. Say hello to spring for the next 7 days.

    Hey TK. I see you joined Harvey and I in raising Wednesday’s forecasted temperature a good 10 degrees from your previous forecast. I guess I won’t be so far off 7 days in advance afterall 😀

    As always, great job with the blog! 😀

    1. It is still too early to verify a forecast temperature when the day is 4 days away still. I raised it based on what I could best guess the timing and location of fronts would be. It still could easily be in the 60s or even 50s (eastern and/or northern areas) on Wednesday. I disclaimed it in the discussion above.

      “Please do not put too much stock in the temperatures for the Tuesday-Friday period next week. They are a 1-digit generalization based on a lower than average confidence forecast.”

      1. I agree. And, I can see the coast line being most vulnerable to temps in the 50s. However, I don’t think that front makes it in here in time (if it makes it in here at all) before temps climb to at least the middle 60s 😀

        1. With the Euro’s timing decent (IMO) I would agree at this point. That is why in my low confidence I felt confident enough to put a ’64’ because I thought that # had the best chance of being a decent average for the area. If you look at the 00z Euro, the front is south of Boston by 00z Thursday but far enough north 24 hours before that to make an educated guess that most of my forecast area starts out in the warm sector.

          1. That’s exactly how I looked at it. Interesting to note that Friday could be an extremely warm day with temps approaching 80. However, this could be our first real thunderstorm threat if the artic front sweeps through the area later in the day vs at night. Wouldn’t be suprised to see Saturday’s temps a good 30 degrees colder!

            1. Again, at this point I agree with that. Hinted at the possible taste of summer before we flip back to “colder”, of course that word is being used in a relative sense as we approach mid to late April.

              1. I still think it’s safe to say at least that the threat of accumulating snow for southern new england is over.

                1. Well as you know we haven’t completely agreed on it but you also know that I base my thoughts on climatology and history.

                  Analytically, looking as far out as I can see, if we don’t get a surprise inch of snow around Earth Day I’ll probably be just about ready to call it done, even though it does look chilly into early May. We all know how rare May snow is. I’ve measured May snow 2 times in my life (1977 & 2002).

                2. Anything is possible TK. But I don’t see anything in the guidance to suggest an inch+ of snow for the remainder of April.

  15. Planting weekend! Now either I will get burnt by a late hard freeze OR I’ll get to enjoy the flowers a couple weeks longer than others 🙂

  16. When the front comes through next Friday will be one factor in determining the strength of thunderstorm threat for that day. With the cool ocean temps I would expect if a line of storms were to form even if it is during peak heating it would weaken as it approaches the influence of the cool ocean temps and a more stable enviroment. Thunderstorms hate stable air.
    Speaking of thunderstorms and I found this out the other day thanks to wxedge.com and I did not know this. I have a feeling a good number of people might know this one.
    What county in New England has had the most tornadoes???

    3. Very true regarding ocean influence. That will be determined by wind direction. An onshore wind will shear off thunderstorm tops and weaken the approaching line of storms. On the other hand, a land wind all the way to the coastline will help to maintain the strength of strong/severe storms. During this time of year easterly winds along the coast are quite common even while just inland a bit, winds could be coming from the west and northwest. This will make it more likely that any severe storms will be confined to central and western MA while an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in eastern sections.

      1. Worcester County. Also some of the strongest tornados in the northeast have been founded in Worcester Country. I believe an F-4 ripped through their in the mid 1950s.

        2. I believe 21st deadliest in us history. 1953. I know they were trying to reclassify its rating and increase it by 1. Don’t know if they ever did. When Todd gross hosted his weather spotters get together he had one of the foremost authorities on that tornado speak. It was fascinating.

  17. hope the clouds clear up . if they do we have a great chance of seeing the northern lights tonight

  18. Meant to say in the question what county in New England has recored the most tornadoes between 1952 – 2010???

    1. Sometimes, you’re correct. But then that would be termed a guess if we aren’t using scientific evidence to support our forecasts and based upon what I see, the outlook does not support snow 😀

          1. Ahhhhh. Got it. So is the discussion over too or does the potential still exist to have it mentioned regularly??? 😉

            1. As long as people like you actually think there is a chance to see accumulating snowfall in southern new england, then the potential does exist to have it mentioned regularly. If you dont want to see it mentioned regularly, you could always avoid reading my posts, partner 😉

    2. TK can I assume away from any city lights? Doesn’t make Framingham viewing a good bet ;). Do you have any idea of timing?

  21. I love April showers 🙂 What’s funny is that when it rains people are like “where is spring????” FUNNY—It feels MORE like spring to me WHEN it rains!

    2. It smells more like spring then too. Even though the temp is cool, the air smells like spring and the sounds are all spring.

  22. Largo Florida
    Temp 79
    WNW 7pm
    Sunny!

    Warm weather is just awesome! I’m hoping for warm weather next week. 80 on Friday sounds great!

  24. I’ve seen some of your comments about Worcester Co. and tornados. As a contractor, I’ve been able to witness some of the legacy from the 1953 tornado which has included visits to homes where concrete block bunkers remain in some basements to this day in some of the neighborhoods that were struck in Worcester.

    1. I love that stuff. Do you mean bunkers built because of the tornado or parts left behind by the damage.

      1. Post-tornado Vicki. It apparently scared the crap out of people and they reacted by building bunkers.

        I’ve also been in several homes that were moved afterwards for whatever reason.

          1. Right – good point.

            Without a warning system, I wonder for how many years afterwards they scrambled to the bunkers each time “dark clouds” were spilling over them.

            1. I wonder what has changed since the 1950s that has resulted in a decrease in such deadly tornados in Worcester County?

              1. Well, you’d have to consider warning systems as first and foremost I would imagine.

                Imagine how many people might have been killed from that tornado a couple of years ago – especially with the increase in population density.

                I still will drive through the tornado scar now and again. WELL worth the trip. Still jaw-dropping.

                1. Very true. But the number of strong tornados have decreased dramatically since then despite last year’s tornado. I wonder why?

            2. There were a lot of houses in the 50s with bomb shelters in the basement. I wonder if they were built with a dual purpose

        2. It did terrify people I remember constant stories from my patents and their generation from the time I was quite young

  25. Vicki, this morning’s post I was in Toronto. Just landed in Montego Bay. Great flight and good food too. Now trying to find my in-laws in the airport!

  26. A bit of a busted forecast today due to a mostly cloudy sky that never quite cleared. More abundant mid level moisture than forecasted ahead of an approaching cool front seems to have been responsible for the blah day. Despite that, temps still climbed into the 50s as expected, however, max 60 degree temps will likely not be reached.

    1. Inversion. I mentioned this on Matt Noyes’ FB page when he forecast rapid clearing by late morning.

      1. That was a good call TK, but your forecast above for this afternoon was for sunny to partly cloudy skies. I wish that were the case because it’s darn right chilly under this sky cover.

        1. I know I did not verify the sky this afternoon.

          I should have re-issued it before I went to my friend’s daughter’s soccer game.

            1. Hey that’s better than this gem from NWS. Direct quote from zone forecast (read carefully):

              “Monday Night And Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.”

              Chance of what? Meatballs?

  27. H85 temps or temps at 850 tomorrow should run a few degrees cooler tomorrow due to this impending cold frontal passage tonight. With more abundant sunshine tomorrow, temps should still climb into the middle 50s. However, the temperature on your skin tomorrow will likely feel warmer than today because of the warm April sun. But, breezy conditions could unfortunately negative this warming effect.

  29. Your welcome Vicki… Wxedge.com have been posting these tornado stats which have been very interesting. Hope your enjoying The Masters. I am rooting for Fred Couples to win it!

    1. Me too but I don’t say it out loud so pretend I didnt. If his back holds out he can. He is far and away my all time favorite.

      1. His back is the key and will it hold up. He has been in it going into the weekend now for the 3rd straight year.

        1. IMHO if it were not for his back he may have well won it at least one of the years …..at least. I love to watch his swing.

  31. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What airborne article does NOT cause allergic asthma?
    A. Pet Hair
    B. Mold Spores
    C. Pollen
    D. Cigarette Smoke

    The correct answer is D. Everyone who answered got it right! A FIRST at Woods Hill Weather!!

    1. Yay for everyone

      The trick is that animal dander and not fur/hair causes asthma as well as second hand smoke and what I didnt catch at first was the word allergic asthma which was the key. It was a very fun question. Thanks again for posting these

      1. From what I understand, BZ has been getting emails, tweets, etc that the Trivia questions are getting harder and harder.

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