No May Day Call For The Weather

66 Comments

5:35PM

A run of great weather continues, though it will be somewhat interrupted by the passage of a strong back-door cold front late Thursday that may kick off isolated showers over inland areas as it approaches, and will make Friday a much cooler day in all areas, including inland, than the past few have been. Then it’s right back to the great weather for the weekend and probably the very start of next week. Beyond that, some questions arise based on differences in guidance, and some changes to reliable guidance from yesterday to today. So the end of this forecast will be lower confidence. For the next few days the pollen count will remain high and fire danger will be high as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the upper 30s inland valleys to middle 40s along the coast. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny start. Clouds building in the afternoon especially inland where isolated showers and even a thunderstorm may pop up briefly. Potential for a deck of lower clouds coming off the ocean especially Boston south toward the end of the day. Highs around 70 inland and 60 coast before a sharp drop of 5 to 10 degrees by evening. Wind light variable into the afternoon then east to northeast 10-25 MPH with the passage of the front from northeast to southwest across the region, relaxing a little bit later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, clearing later. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 58 coast to 68 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 60 coast to 70 inland.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70 except cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 53. High 66.

66 thoughts on “No May Day Call For The Weather”

  3. I won’t like the wind with this dryness. Our neighbors have a huge fire in their yard. Worries me with the woods behind.

    Thanks TK for the update

      2. charlie that would make it more flamable , expecially at night when the trees flip from giving off oxygen during the day to carbon at night.

  5. Over the past day or so, there has been large solar flare like activity. The larger eruptions are called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) where huge fields of firey particles shoot out of the sun at more than 1 million MPH. Here is a 13 second video. (My uneducated guess is that this is time lapse photography because an event like this would have to take place over several hours, not 13 secs.)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7XYSRhlfNM

    The ones that shoot towards the earth can effect the atmosphere. The one shown here was not eart directed.

  7. Can see the effects ahead of the backdoor surge of cool air, as surface reports show a light w and sw flow even near the coast and I can see the flags outside the building waving lightly towards the beaches. Kind of interested to catch the frontal passage (hopefully), as right along the coastline, that initial surge of NE winds can sometimes be briefly strong.

  8. More vegetation leafs,weeds,bushes with leaves on them as suppose to everything bare, a month in a half ago when everything was bare and dry would be more fire danger

  9. Oh my I feel a new word needs to be added to our growing dictionary………Let’s see. What word could it be……I know, how about

    PROBABLE (Webster def): supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof

    Now let’s review a past word…..say…

    POSSIBLE (Webster def): being something that may or may not occur

    Now – just because I’m on a roll and I’m sure you don’t want to stop me – let’s compare the two…….

    (Psychology today….where else would I go for a comparison 🙂 ) Just because something is possible, does not mean that it is highly probable. Often, possibility and probability are confused with each other. Many times people see that the mere chance of something happening must mean that it absolutely will happen. This is, of course, not true at all.

    It is possible that you will win the lottery today. The probability is very low, and zero if you do not play the lottery, but it is possible. Even though the probability is small, millions of people still play the lottery because sometimes someone wins, and it might just be them.

    1. Sorry – it’s a spectacular morning – blue sky, the air smells like spring, I’m a wee bit jealous of the snow in the midwest (very sad I know), and all of that puts me in a playful mood 😕

      1. we’re still on the “possible”, “potential”, “probable” talk I see, LOL.

        Based upon the overall weather pattern that continues due to this omega block I would say that we should look up the definition of words like “impossible,” “unattainable,” “visionary” and “absurd.”

        Enjoy the day 😀

  10. Thank goodness I got my irrigation system installed a couple weeks ago. Look for the dry, warm weather to continue (exception: tomorrow). Temps late this weekend into the 70s and still on track for a few low 80s by early to mid next week.

    TK, you MAY want to raise those high temps for next week. Not buying the 60s that the other METS are advertising.

    1. I will if I feel it is warranted after further meteorological analysis. I don’t put too much priority on exact temps for days 5, 6, and 7.

  11. Portland, ME at 1pm …….. 51F….. East wind at 23, gusting to 29. Here it comes !!!!

    1. Now down to 49F at 3pm …… Logan got to 70F with a light SE wind, fairly impressive and its pretty mild in Marshfield. Seeing the 70s inland, guess the airmass moderated to its full potential finally, with MT. Washington being in the mid-upper 40s.

  13. 55 Marshfield to 81 Springfield. You can guess the season and probably the month with just that data.

    1. Yes, about 15 to 30 minutes ago, the wind picked up and it was like the fridge just got opened and a wave of cool air came through.

  16. On the next update I will be keeping the cloudier forecast for next week along with lower temperatures than advertised by many. For now I’m going to go with the idea of a little further northward lift of a cut-off low from the Mid Atlantic to impact the region sometime in the Tuesday-Thursday period. This may or may not be a good forecast, but it’s Springtime, and we know how blocky, cut-off style things are to forecast. Going with this idea for now, and will adjust if necessary.

  19. Thinking from midweek next week on looks cloudyish with at least some chances for rain 🙂

    1. There are certainly signs of a wetter pattern finally setting up toward the end of next week and it could be here to stay for a while. However, we’re still a week away and lots can change.

        1. Ahhhh got it. Well the potential is there but the probability…….not so much 😆

    1. It’s not very tall nationally but it’s tall for Boston, NYC just topped off the last part of the trade center and its height is 3 in a half Hancock towers tall, it’s a wonderful tower that’s taller than oringinal tower, it shows we are not afraid of terroist in any way 🙂

      1. Thanks tom. Sitting inside watching the Disney channel, rain may have just let up but parks close at 9:00.

    2. Doesn’t look great Friday – numerous showers redevelop.

      Saturday about 50/50 for showers.

      Fabulous weather returns there by early next week but I believe you were only there through Saturday? Hopefully the showers miss the next 2 days.

  24. Gotten a few light showers here in Marshfield, perhaps a hundredth or two ….. at least for a moment, the ground is a bit damp.

  25. State fire Marshall says brush fire damage is very high. There have been 700 fires this year with 500 acres burned. I don’t get why they still allow outdoor fires.

    1. I have a fire every weekend responsibly, never had a problem, other people in neighborhood do as well 🙂 I haven’t forgot ya Vicki, ill shoot an email soon been busy 🙂

      1. No worries Charlie. We also have responsible fires. But when its this bad and with the wind we have been having, one spark can float. Our neighbors do not have responsible fires.

  26. Charlie, not sure why the dead terrorist’s body ended up at Dyer Lake Funeral Home in Our town, bu I just lost a lot of respect for them as a business.

  29. No signs of a wet pattern any time soon.

    We haven’t had a wet pattern for quite some time.

    Boston’s last 1/2 inch-or-more precip day was March 19.

    Stats don’t lie.

    Did you like my Minnesota snow picture? Lots of snow records out that way. Got lucky here. If the pattern had set up a different way we’d have been seeing very late season snow in parts of New England. I guess that’s what they mean by “potential”. A word in which the meaning is lost on many people. Oh well. Maybe they have a food or vitamin to help with memory. 🙂

    Have a great day. 🙂

    P.S. – It’s very rare, but the GFS may actually be performing better than the Euro during the next several days.

  30. No rain, so pollen count is very high—over 10. Mainly birch, maple and elm. Only chance of rain I see is around Weds or Thurs next week.

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