No Fooling?

211 Comments

12:00 AM

Well, well. Seems our old friend winter is returning for a late visit. After a couple of cold & dry March days, the month will wind-up with a dry & milder Wednesday followed by a cloudy & colder Thursday.  Thursday’s clouds will be from an initial low pressure system passing just south of New England. Some light rain and/or snow may reach the South Coast from this system, but nothing major will occur. As we flip the calendar to April, it seems mother nature will deal us a prank for April Fools Day, in the form of a late-season winter storm!

There is much to be determined with Friday’s storm system, including precipitation type, amount, and coastal flooding impact. It is looking more and more like this storm system will feature snow versus rain for a good part of the area, but some rain is likely, at least in the early stages of the storm. Though not a tremendous amount of cold air will be around as the storm arrives, these storms can and often do make their own cold air, dragging it down from above, in a process called “dynamic cooling”. There should be plenty of moisture available for precipitation.

The next update will have a bit more detail, as I want to step slowly into trying to detail the impact of this event. For now, here’s an updated Boston area forecast!

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35 to 40. Wind S under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain or mixed snow/rain developing from south to north. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the 40s.

211 thoughts on “No Fooling?”

  1. So we have a flip on the GFS and the euro! Nam is the most easterly solution. Anyone buying that? I am not at this point. I do still think interior SNE sees snow even at lower elevation.

    1. They only thing I can say at this point is we’ve seen this exact set of behavior with these models on other storms this winter… We’re not there yet. This thing can still go either way.

      Off I go for several hours. Have a great day everyone!

  2. This morning BZ started forecasting snow amounts. Melissa seemed to give Boston 1-3″ and of course more to the north and west. The map will probably change a number of times over the next couple of days.

  3. TK I know you were pissed at the NAM a couple times this winter.

    Longshot I saw that as well. Still 48+ hrs away so a lot can change.

  4. mornin’ all.

    Hadi, still watching the NAM. Still weak and ho-hum. If you blend it with the GFS and Euro, this storm might end up going right up the canal. WSW for me out here in Worc. area as you probably know.

    Couple thoughts….
    -how often do you here Ct. River Valley in a NWS discussion for favored snow area. I spent some time out there in College and it’s not exactly know for favored snow growth.
    -would love someone to chime in on Climo. this morning. That really hasn’t been talked about much.
    -finally, I though JMA had a really interesting comment tucked in one of his/her posts yesterday about a sneaky ridge poking in. I kind of sat on that but thought it was brilliant insight.

  5. Retrac the fact the conn valley is Mentioned is telling bc they usually get shadowed by the mountains.

  6. September 13th equivalent sun today, looking forward to a nice early spring like day. Have a good day everyone !

  7. Here you there Tom. I think the past few nights have acutally put some frost back in the ground.

  8. Trend from 00z suite. Go west. I believe this is in response to the synoptic factors we have talked about. +NAO/AO/-PNA, lack of strong cold to the north, lack of a pure north wind. If you think about it, even the NAM is west of where it was. Also the storm is progged to move faster and arrive a little earlier. I think the GFS may be a little fast. Also watch for a the storm to be perhaps come in even a little further west, if there is convection in the gulf of mexico or in that proximity, that could cause ridging and possibly shift the storm further west than currently thought. Forecast remains chance of rain and snow. Rain emphasis 128 South and East. Snow Emphasis west of that, but I am not sold on any one solution, though I have moderate confidence that the City of Boston will not see a significant winter weather event. I will be unavailable until after 2pm today. So by then I am sure all thinking will have changed and I will be back thinking, what was I thinking….

  9. One quick thing on the CT Valley. It does not get its best snow from benchmark storms. Shadow effect and a favored area for dry slot formation with benchmark storms. Its best snow come from storms that come up over SE Mass, though not necessarily in March and April. Storms that close in March and April can allow too much warm air to work in. More December, January and into mid-late February. It is not the whole valley either. The primary area for unfavorable snow growth is east of the river in Hampshire County. If you look at the NWS Box Snow Map on their homepage this morning they have this drawn out pretty well.

  10. If anyone wants to share my thoughts on BZ board, that’s cool. Don’t even have to attribute to me. Especially if I end up being all wrong….See you all later.

    1. JMA/HADI- Guys I really hope it is a rainstorm from Boston down through the southshore. For certain reasons I just can’t have snow this time. I know some want the snow, but this would cause problems for me. I know we don’t have a certain track now, but some feedback from you guys would be great.

  11. JMA appreciate your insight! I can’t even go on the BZ blog right now..the maddness is out of control. It was fine this morning, but as they all wake up its out of control.

  12. thanks for the referencing JMA-good stuff.

    I’m thinking this is going up the canal.

    Looking forward to today’s runs!

  13. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there are plenty of model “flip-flops” even into tomorrow afternoon…can hardly wait for Barry’s thoughts later. I am still thinking “nowcasting” could very well occur come Friday.

    Have a good day everyone! 🙂

  15. Retrac its sure looks that way right now and I could not be more pleased with no snow in Boston!!! I know its crazy for me to say that, but the last thing I need is to be stuck at the airport with a 17 month old:)

  18. 17 month old-airport-bad weather-yikes

    Tha NAM is really sticking to its guns isn’t it. It’s definitely colder than the GFS but blows it up in Gulf of Maine. How many times have we seen the GFS & NAM slug it out this winter right to the bitter end. (with the NAM usually winning out)

    The Canadian from last night has a GFS/NAM blended look to it if you hadn’t seen

  19. Scoot, is the nam pointing to a more off shore track thus less qpf and lighter snow in eastern mass?

  21. NAM is sticking with a light/moderate snow in eastern NE.. It has been slugfest between the GFS/EURO and NAM this year with the NAM winning a lot of times.

    I am cracking up reading the BZ blog, someone asked me to email them that I have never seen on the blog DZ, yeah right!!

  22. Yeah Retrac last thing we need is a weather delay with the baby. He in total destrcution mode right now so the airport better watch out:-)

  23. Oh man…been there….I have four kids myself.

    Just checked 12z Canadian……it runs the storm right over islip, New Bedford, South Shore. Where it snows, it’s gonna snow. Rte. 2 corridor gets waxed on that run and some of the N/NW Worcester Hills which puts my spot in play.

  24. Coastal alsionarod will email you, ask what job he does, he is a physican assistant if my memory serves me correctly.

    1. Hi Hadi he is- I thought it was a girl- oops. So my plans have changed. So it can snow or rain I do not care. But a ton of rain would not be good. Wbz blog is a joke today.

  26. 12z Canadian is colder than 00z run. S. New Hampshire/Monadonocks/N. Worcester County…one heck of a dumping on that look.

  27. the site is get the EURO from hasn’t updated since monday for the 00z run…

    I give the NWS’s snowfall forecast map 20% of verifying.

    I knew the NAM would give us issues(different solution), which should not be ignored!

  31. not to beat a dead horse guys….and I’m looking to be corrected if I’m wrong….but I really think Climotology is somewhere near a canal runner.

  38. I’m trying to remember that crushing storm back in, I think December of ’92. I’m pretty sure it had a track real similar to this, parallel and just south of Long Island. Heavy rain turned to heavy snow….30″ if I remember right. I’m not saying this is that, it just stirs that track memory up is all I’m saying. Also, I think there was a big high to the North.

  39. Haven’t we seen this before, the models have a big storm only to loose it 2/3 days before. Then the models change again within 48 hours?

  40. Retrac I think the difference you are looking at is the Dec vs. April…. Climate wise a track like the one we have here is just not right for big snows in a lot of our area. If we could have just held on the -NAO would have a made a world of difference. Also remember we had a simialr track earlier this year through the canal but Boston stayed on the snow side b/c of cold high which we are fore sure lacking here.

  41. coastal I think the difference is that the models have not lost it but rather the track and temps are the issue, but yes you are correct about the models losing the storms.

  42. I agree Hadi.

    I think snowlovers on the coastal plain are going to be disappointed. I have a major Worcester Hills bias becasue that’s where I live and as I posted earlier. I still think at least some snow is in play my area without wishcasting.

  43. The models will continue to go back and forth. I think we are going to be nowcasting this event and I think there could be surprises. If you are in an elevated area of SNE I think you got a shot at a Moderate Snowfall and areas closer to the coast inside 128 not much in the way of snow and only Minor accumulations. It will be interesting what happens to the areas under a winter storm watch if they are upgraded to warnings or downgraded to advisories.

  45. retrac major cut-off, i have not seen one like that in a while…I showed to my wife this morning and she said AMEN

  46. retrac I think you will get a decent front end shot, the issue is if the GFS and EURO verify even elevated areas are going to struggle to keep BL below freezing unless the dynamics are incredible.

  47. Hadi, when looking at the recent Canadian and GFS (the twins), I live like 5-10 miles outside of the rain line. It’s so close it might be raining where I work five miles away. I’ve seen rain at the bottom of my hill and blinding snow at the top…all over two-three miles. It’s pretty neat and this might be one of those deals.

    The B.L. is going to be a big problem with this going down during the day.

  49. Is it too soon to ask what in the future for Framingham? I’m on north side near wayland and sudbury.

      1. We love honey pot. The apples are great but the animals and maze are fun also and the apple cider donuts and candied apples are as good as it gets!

        1. Have you had the pie- It is nice to blog with you, you seem very nice. And if I am correct you come to this site to learn weather like myself. I believe you made mention to TK about a learning section, that would be great. I would like to learn how to read the maps. Looking forward to hear from TK on this storm, well I look forward to hearing from everyone as I get something from everybody here.

          1. I too would love a learning section. I have been trying to figure out the models by myself.

            John, Vicki, I live in the Sudbury area and every fall we go to honey pot and get a lot of apples.

            I am looking forward to see how this storm turns out – should be interesting.

  50. maybe 4-5″ Vicki if I were to take an early stab at it at most. This is going to be so close. It could just as easily be a dreary, cold, pouring rain.

    1. Thanks retrac – I have a feeling that you are right. But as I said yesterday, part of the fun of a storm is the anticipation and trying to figure what it will do.

  51. Taking a quick look the 12z GFS seems polluted by convective feedback and a lagging trough after the system pulls away. Just saw a quick look at the 12z ECWMF. Its QPF seems more reasonable at about 1.0-1.25 Bos-ORH-CEF. NAM still seems too far east. I am bothered by the GFS and NAM mos output compared to its OP run graphical output guidance. Temps, QPF, its Snow Tool all do not match their respective guidance output. Tells me both models are utterly confused. Bottom line. I don’t like any of the model solutions. I think inside 128 this is mostly rain at this time. The tough call is going to be the 495 belt and the CT River Valley. Its going to snow in elevated locations from 495-ORH-CT River Valley, its the areas below 600 feet where I am still struggling for the right solution. Be back post 8pm tonight.

  52. The issue is of course its that area below 600-700 feet is where most people live and that’s where you got to be right. (Sorry Retrac 🙂 )

  53. Warning- Everybody I was just on the wbz site and It is really bad today. There is two trolls going back and forth about rubbing dogs balls. Do not waste time going there today. I kept my mouth shut like TK said and reported. That’s just not right. Sorry about the word above I just thought I should let you guys know.

    1. John…exactly why we should refrain from “posting” on the WBZ site. I know I am until “mangement” clears up the *mess* once and for all.

  54. For sure JMA. That’s where the money is made right! I guess I’m still gun shy from getting whacked from fools on the BZ site.

    1. We can say what we want and everybody is respected. I hope this site stays , I
      enjoy it here so much I may stay on to learn more on thunder-storms.

  56. Just wondering if Old Salty will join this blog? I’ve always liked his comments. A few times during those thunder storms last summer I believe it was Old Salty who saw the rotation and mentioned it on the blog before even the mets saw it on the news.

    1. pretty intense thunderstorms in north-central Florida………..Mt Washington has “moderated” to 16F and a sea breeze, which I am experiencing first hand, has brought up the relative humidity along the coast (with dewpoints in the upper 20s). I’ll be interested to watch Mt Washington’s temp later in the day tomorrow as well as the dewpoints, particularly inland.

      1. Tom my husband works with a guy who lived in the house partway up Mt Washington for a couple of winters – not the summit house. Now two of his friends man the station. I always thought that would be fascinating.

  60. I noticed that in Florida with the severe weather and a tornado watch box with torando and severe thunderstorm warnings inside that watch box. Thankfully no severe weather coming for us with this next storm system.

  61. The NAM is staying fairly consistent and its within 48 hrs of the event. Now, I’m trying to remember back about a week and a half ago to a system which threatened with snow, but didnt end up delivering snow. As I recall, there was convection to the south of New England and the snow (precip) faded away over the region. Does anyone remember this system and if so, how was the NAM’s handling of it ?

  62. I think the GFS had the last one wrong Tom.

    Pretty clean new write-up from NWS. Pretty much sums up what we’ve been batting around all day.

  64. NWS updated, going with GFS bc of support from it’s members. I have such a hard discounting the NAM.
    NWS totals
    1-3 Boston

    5-9 interior SNE

    6-12 Worcester west and NH

  67. BZ blog is out of control even though we have some supporters who are wanting us back:-) but I for one when the trolls are on will not post.

  68. Just wondering why storms come up the coast in the first place? I know the jet stream is a factor but does the ocean have anything to do with it?

  69. this has a blown forecast written all over it because everyone seems to be discounting that NAM. I think the dry air in place will shove this storm a little more to the east, just as the NAM is suggesting.

    Can’t wait to see the 00z runs of the GFS and NAM.

  71. if I recall the updated NWS discussion, it mentions a chance of some light rain/snow preceding the big storm…..On the NAM, it clearly has been modeling an impulse with some precip that races eastward out over the ocean ahead of the developing low. Also, recent past performance seems to be good. I wonder if the NAM deserves more consideration as a possible scenario.

  72. Also from what I’ve seen this winter, the NAM is the first to pick up on things which the GFS lags behind on picking up.

  73. Hadi it is kind of funny on the other site. The trolls are about to start fighting with each other. I think that we have to be careful over here that someone doesn’t act all nice when they shoot coastal an email and get in. This site has been great, it is really nice just reading great stuff from you all.

    1. Tk approves us here and can take us off here. I think we should be good. And like I said many times TK outdid himself with this site, just awesome.

    2. I am the gate keeper, no one goes out, no one comes in! LOL.

      I have received several emails from some sketchy characters. There not getting by me. There is some people that haven’t posted on bz but simply go there to read what most of you have to say about the weather. There is one women that contacted me, I think she would be ok to send the link to but I have no way to check her out.

  74. Oceans generate precip but storms are dictated by the jet stream, upper level winds, blocking strength. Storms want to go where there is little resistance. Anyone else have something more?

    Great question Merlin.

  76. Hadi,

    I’m right there with your amounts-good call.

    Scott,

    I’m a big NAM fan and have been all winter. I just don’t know about meterology enough beyond enough to be dangerous to explain what the problem is with it this time around. I hear you though on not totally overlooking it though until the last minute. I mean, how many times has it pushed the GFS around right at the end.

    BZ blog boycott here for me for a while. it’s just toxic over there. Freedom of speech and common decency can coexist.

  77. Haterain, coastal can ask some questions that should give away their identity. I think TK can force a log in if someone sneaks in. but it’s comical to see it.

    If I was a betting man once this storm is gone they will melt away in the snow:)

  78. Retrac I can’t discount the NAM and it’s unwise for any forecaster to ignore it. But BL temps are just too high for me to go on board for snow in eastern mass. Daytime will also have a big impact on accumulations.

    1. I agree 100% hadi, for most of us this is a rainstorm, wet snow above 500ft and west of 128, and esp 495 west and north, have a great day everyone 🙂

  79. Hey rainshine- glad I’m not the only one with the models. I think Tk said he would love to do some teaching on here. I for one would welcome it. What a nice day today. I’m over in Pembroke and just so nice out now, getting ready to fire up the grill for some rib-eye steaks. My six year old loves them. I am looking forward to see what this storm does as well. Something tell’s me down this way we may just have a big rain and wind storm. Whatever happens this storm has generated some bigtime hype.

    2. I would love some teaching. I look at the models but don’t know what to look for. Hadi I’m a casual poster but read all the time. I feel badly for people like me too.

      1. Well that came out wrong. I feel badly for people like me who have come to rely on the BZ weather blog. It will mean a lot that you are still posting

          1. John they did the same to conversation nation fortunately line TK we saw it coming so started a blog of our own which doesn’t have as many posters as we’d like but is still going strong 8 months later :). I don’t know why it’s happening to BZ weather but did know BZ wanted CN gone. My fear us one of the sand people who ruined CN is the troll on weather. There are too many similarities

  80. I sort feel bad for the people on BZ that are casual followers so I will post
    my thoughts but that’s it. Will not answer anything back.

  81. U gotta go with the nam, and this 00Z run co
    at 900pm will show much confidence on a rainy solution for much of the area from Boston to Providence, some maps even show a dry slot over se mass and cape, this blog is great and it’s fun, I enjoy all the blogs 🙂

  84. coastal…love the gatekeeper costume….is this like one of those secret WWII societies where you have to be holding a yellow card and smoke a certain brand cigarette to be cleared in. good stuff.

      2. Well John, your one of the nicest trolls I have met.

        Retrac, Im still working on a costume. Might go with the reeper.

          1. Well John, looks like you saved yourself. I feared coastal might order his goon squad to take you out back and, well…..

            b.t.w…..looks like there’s a pretty good handle on this storm. Latest GFS might be a little cooler but not by much. now it might just be lets see if it can make enough cold air.

  85. Haven’t some of our snowstorms this season occured in spite of no “cold high” to the north? Please don’t hesitate to correct me if I’m wrong on this one, but I am cautiously confident that maybe at least a couple?

  86. some philip but the sun’s radiation gets through the clouds this time of year, frost is out of the ground, ocean is warmer etc….

  87. Can anyone comment on why the storm is going to arrive so much sooner than mets were saying just a day or so ago? What changed?

  88. there’s also the fact that there isn’t a snow pack, especially where I live.
    heck i’m ready for spring.

  89. ummm. I’m not sure it is sooner Christine. I think it’s been pretty much on track. If anything, it’s just progged to end sooner. there was some thought earlier in the week that it might stack up, invert, neg. tilt and slow down into saturday but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

    do I have this right gang?

    1. Thanks for the reply, retrac. I read somewhere yesterday morning that this storm would begin around 5-7am and end around 8-9pm. What that forecaster failed to mention was the first little round of showers tomorrow night before the bigger part of the storm, but it’s sort of looking like it’ll all blend together.

      Please forgive any of my foolish questions or musings; I’m just a beginner! 🙂

      1. No questions will be foolish on this site, welcome you came to a great site with very smart people who know there weather.

  90. Hi all!
    I can ban an IP if need-be. I can also, with one click, turn this place into a register & log in site, if needed. 🙂

      1. You’re in, Charlie. Sorry it took me a while to approve you. Been busy most of the night & never looked at the pending comments until just now. 🙂

  91. that too Scott. People have to remember just how hard it has to snow for it to pile up this time of year. I mean, just the fact that it snows during the day versus night means inches in some cases. That stuff doesn’t matter in January

  92. good to know TK. Looks like coastal has things in order. He’s doing a fine job. I thought of asking Hadi if he wanted to make up some plaster of paris dummy heads to slip in the bunk while we paddle on out of here but word is the water is still cold.

    1. Eventually I was going to announce this blog on WBZ, including giving the address, but I’m glad I didn’t .. for now, and that coastal is helping. It was his idea actively to start one, which I had done on the side in December. So everything was in place..and here we are. 🙂

      1. it was a great idea TK and thanks to you guys we are here! I didn’t even know until the other day.

        1. Most of the credit goes to coastal for suggesting it. It was the catalyst. I wanted to do some work on the site first, but I guess there was no need for now anyway.

  93. Hi retrac- It is looking like rain for me I think. I read a blog from Pete B and he is saying it will be out fairly early on Friday. Whatever happens it has made some good conversations on here. Heading out to buy my son a new bat for baseball, I coach him. I will be back on in about an hour as I know we have some good forcasting coming up.

    1. fun stuff. my son actually just walked in the door from first indoor practice. I tell myself every year, this time of year too that I can’t believe I’ll mow the lawn for the first time in four weeks but it’s true.

  94. Good to see you on TK- Quick hockey question. Do you play thomas or let him rest. It’s a question that myself and my friends talk about. We know he is the starter, so I say alternate with the two of them. This way Rask gets some time before he sits and Thomas does not sit for to long.

  95. Should we take anything out of the precip area in PA…..
    1) Its snowing, as temps have cooled to near 32F. Surrounding areas to the north of the area are 37-43F. I didnt expect that much precip to be there, nor it to be that far north.
    2) Remember the 2 storms that hit New England in late Jan and then the first few days of February. They hit during the Negative NAO transitioning towards Neutral/Positive, as it is now. If I recall correctly, in both cases, especially the Feb 1-2 storm, the initial disturbance came a bit further north than expected. Then, the 2nd bigger storm did the same. That was true of the storm that dumped 12 inches of snow in 4hrs and the next one where the sleet and freezing rain kicked in quicker than expected.

    1. sure looks impressive Tom. Our (central mass bias) dewpoints are pretty low right now…..so much of it would/will probably dry up if it swipes a little closer..just a thought

    2. I do remember those two storms. I remember comparing the precip field on the models to the radar. In fact, i believe you were the one that pointed that out to us first. What are you thinking on how this will translate?

      1. Hi Retrac and Coastal.

        Retrac, I think thats true about the dry air…..Coastal, I’ll give a guess that it gives credence to the GFS and EURO’s track closer to the coast, as compared to the NAM’s version. Just on the precip movement alone in that PA area, the motion is already north of east and I’d think the upper flow is probably going to back some more.

    1. I think so still…but it may be close. I still have a gut feeling I cannot shake that this thing ultimately ends up colder than the major mets have it. I can hear my old boss explaining how they underforecast the dynamic cooling, and he was pretty much always right.

  98. Tom good analogy on that previous storm. I think with the 00z runs tonight we will have a better feel of what the first storm will do the 2nd one. With such low dewpoints the colum can cool very rapidly when the precip gets going.

    1. Hi Hadi,

      Thanks…..I agree and I’m going to try to hang in there for the 0z NAM. It was about 10:30pm last night when it got to the 60hr frame. Since tonight it should be the 36h frame, maybe that will save 10 minutes. 🙂

  99. Good evening everyone! The way this winter has gone this does not surprise that we are tracking potential snow as we start off April. I want to repeat what I have been saying that this is not going to be a repeat of the April Fools Storm of 1997. However I do think right now that the interior areas particulary up in elevation have a good shot a MODERATE Snowfall which is a 2 on the 1-4 Snow Index. Areas inside 128 I think snow will mix in with the rain but any accumulation in that area will be MINOR which is a 1 on the Snow Index.
    It is nice to finally come to a blog where there is no trash talking and I look forward to talking with all of you here for this storm system and again as we track thunderstorms or anything else weatherwise.

    2. I’m thinking just a matter of 10 miles might be the difference between all rain and a couple inches a wet snow caked on all the trees and grass, should be interesting,

  102. TK-to your point about old school…the surprise making their own cold air storms really leave an impression don’t they. I remember back in high school (80’s) having a baseball game cancelled in late April from one of those underforecasted coolings. The pro’s must be pulling their hair out over this. at what point do they scrap the models and go with “gut”….rain or snow…..would love to see how that goes down in a forecasting center. I have this bizarre image of an old wise sage telling all the new people to turn the computers off.

  103. TK, around what time will you be posting a new forecast? I really want to see at least “some” snow for Boston if nothing else just to shut up the trolls over on the “other” site.

    1. It’s possible that there are some delays but they are probably not major… Let’s hope, for your sake, it’s not that bad.

  106. wow- whdh really stuck their neck out huh? give ’em credit either way. Almost like their planning it to run over Chatham or even further east. curious to say the least. maybe it’s an old map.

  107. This 2nd low is going to be a fast mover. Much faster than the NWS has progged. Most of the heavy precip is going to fall in the overnight hours on Thursday into Friday. Its for this reason I think some eastern areas could do a little better on snowfall. I still think this is a not a winter weather event in the City of Boston. However outside the city, but inside 128 some snow will fall, thanks to this moving in much faster than I thought and heavy precip falling over night. Of course because this is moving so fast I am not as bullish on snowfall amounts north and west.

    Heaviest Precip will fall 1am-9am. Storm track over southeast mass, just west of cape cod.

    Amounts
    City of Boston South and East-Rain Including CT &RI
    Elevated areas of NE CT and NW RI should see some snowfall but less than 2″
    128 -Metro North &West Slushy Coating – 2″
    495 Belt South of Rt 2 2-4″
    495 Belt North of RT 2 4-6″
    RT 2 North and West 6-9″ (Including SNH)
    Worcester South 3-6″
    Worcester North 6-9″
    CT River Valley 3-5″
    Elevated Locations- Worcester Hills, East Slopes of the Berkshires 8-10″

    So for me, I am not going for a blockbuster, just a quick moving spring storm, that will dump some heavy wet snow over portions of the area.

    1. Thanks! I’m glad someone else is seeing that! Seen it happen many times over the years. This may be one of those times.

  109. What can go wrong with the forecast? Everything, I suppose.

    I am concerned about the intensity of the the convection in Florida, creating a warm SE Ridge and allowing too much warm air to stream in and/or drive the storm further west. Blowing up the snow forecast all the way to Worcester. I am concerned about climatology moving the dry slot right over the CT River Valley and totally busting on snowfall there. I think the NAM is showing its usual cold bias and I don’t really fear more accumulating snow in the City of Boston than forecast. Not with 40 degree ocean water and the lack of a pure north wind. Yes these things can generate their own cold air, but I think too many people are haunted by 1997 and this is not the same set up. Just not enough cold air pooled up north and the storm is going to be moving much too fast. So my concerns are the opposite of TK’s. I am worried about being too cold, not too warm. Isn’t that what makes this so much fun? Well, most of the time…..

    1. Hadi-I apologize for being about 8 hours too late on my precip onset forecast I gave you yesterday. I have traveled with kids often and I know the trepidation…I think you are going to be ok getting out. Unless airlines panic and pull planes out, which they should not, your flight will get out, and I don’t see massive delays.

  111. I am going to add one more thing. Only because its a private forum. I respect everyone who does this for a living and tries to do the best job they can. Mistakes will always be made. Part of the deal. However, I have a real problem with what Channel 7 did yesterday. To go TV in the country’s 7th biggest media market where you can reach 4 million people and predict the City of Boston was going to get a foot or more of snow to me is borderline negligent. That is not gutsy forecasting, that is just plain sensationalism. There were so many signs that argued against that forecast, I cannot imagine any reasonable forecaster believing they were doing the right thing with that public prognostication. That’s just my opinion. Others will disagree and admire the boldness of the statement. I just can’t bring myself to go there.

    2. got it JMA.. If they’re doing it for sensationalism then shame on them and shame on my naivitae because when it comes to weather and it’s effects on life and property, I like to think they’re intentions are more pure than their really lame news desks. Just so you don’t think I’m some yahoo, because I really respect you and all on this board, my comment on them sticking their neck out and respecting that is based purely on assuming they have a solid scientific rationale to back it up. If it is more nefarious, then shame shame. I guess I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt which might not be prudent as you point out. Love the debate.

    3. Part of what you say may be right about 7. I know many who work for 7 are not pleased with the format. That being said I’ve worked with Pete. I’ve seen him on a limb several times that some here gave criticized and that’s fine because even those here are at odds it is new England weather after all. The two times that Bouchard and even JR took the most heat for going on a limb turned out they were right. And I’m sure there are equal times they were wrong.

  112. JMA, could urban street flooding become an issue “briefly” for Boston come Friday morning’s commute? Just curious more than anything else.

  113. JMA do you attribute that to the mets or the producers? I think whdh is always in the business of going over the top. To me it has to do with mgt vs. And his team.

    1. Producers and News Directors are at fault when the forecaster is going for flurries and they are using teases, leads, and packages, that create the idea for the viewer that something more significant is coming. Going for a foot or more of snow in the City on April 1st is the forecasters call.

  114. Coastal and others, when you give this link out to an unknown, they can be fronting for an undesirable.

  116. JMA, upon occassion, channel 7 does get out on a limb and at other times they seem right on the money. I am not sure why this happens but I believe the news team and management sometimes go for the headlines and ratings.

  117. I believe I have never seen a troublemaker as persistent as troll-boy.

    But he is NOT happy about the “secret blog”.

  118. Just saw Pete B–sticking with some serious amounts: Boston= 2-5″; metrowest and north= 5-10″; and further west and north = 10-15″.

    1. JMA- I have never liked Pete B. Have you ever read one of there forcast blogs.
      They spend the first part of there blog talking about themselves. Like the one in the morning she talks about her dog and what she eats for dinner, I mean come on now. Now I said this many times and will say many more. In my oppinion CH5 has the best weather team out there. I think Harvey is Awesome,JC and Mike W. I know you guys like Barry, he is good to but I swear by 5.

      1. 5 is the best overall, to be totally honest. I am good friends with JC’s Elementary School teacher and she is quite a smart cookie. Also very friendly. She’s a FB friend now and quite personable. I worked with Harvey once to help out a young girl on a science project and he was very nice about it. And I remember running into David Brown at a coffee shop in Boston before a conference. He was very friendly. And all 3 of them are excellent forecasters.

        1. I am so glad you agree. Ch5 has put a great weather team togeather. And I think all of them are excellent to. Have you ever watched Mike cover a storm from Scituate. So Harvey just said 1-2 slushy inches tommorow night for Boston, rain down my way. Do you see that to TK.

  119. Another aspect of Channel 7 is that they seem to always interrupt regular programming (even the Today Show) for an “incident” that has little or no affect of 99.9% of residents and viewers. Many of these “BREAKING NEWS stories” can easily wait until regular news breaks if not the noon or late afternoon news. I have seen them interrupt when Today has an important national/world or even “health” segment that some people should really know about.

    1. yea- Its like we interupt this program to say ah- well gee somone just robbed a bank. Well hello bank’s get robbed everyday.

  120. I like the fact that these winter storms contain a learning experience, not just the snow aspect. I learn so much from every storm and see where I made my mistakes.

  124. Anyone notice the 12z NAM is verifying about 75 miles to0 far south with the precip shield from tonights low and both the 12 NAM and GFS are about 4-7 degrees too cool when comapared to actual inland temps at FIT, ORH, & CEF? Something to keep in the back of your mind.

  125. Kevin Lemanowicz has slushy 1-2″ for Boston. Any snow”pocalypse” has turned into a snow “bust”. 🙁

  127. Barry says 1-2″ of RAIN…no snow at all expected for Boston. I guess the snow season is over for most of SNE for all practical purposes.

  128. 00z GFS shifts E and drops temps, and drops most of the precip. predawn, during the darkness. Zero line at 850mb barely gets W of Boston for a very short time. Don’t count out a white surprise closer to the coast just yet…

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