Summer 2013 Outlook

88 Comments

This is a quick outlook for what I expect heading into and through the Summer of 2013. There will be more discussion and detail upcoming.

MID TO LATE MAY: Signs of a brief shot of very cool air at mid month followed by a preview of summer warmth, then a couple more cool shots toward the end of the month. Rain or shower events will mark temperature changes but the month overall should see near to below normal precipitation.

JUNE: Jet stream wavers but lifts more to the north with mean ridge position Midwest to interior East. Several frontal passages bring episodes of mostly light rain and a few heavier showers/storms, but the month overall should see a below normal rainfall trend and temperatures near to above normal with dryness increasing and building toward drought conditions in some locations.

JULY: Hot and dry with drought increasing. Limited thunderstorm activity. The pattern could favor mainly isolated air mass storms when there is enough moisture, and only a few shots at storm lines when disturbances pass by if a dominant high pressure ridge weakens a few times.

AUGUST: Tropical moisture increases, a very warm and humid month but not as hot as July. Drought should break from tropical rains at some point during the month.

SEPTEMBER: Summer winds down warm and wet then shifts to cooler and drier.

88 thoughts on “Summer 2013 Outlook”

  1. TK, thanks for the forecast. Always good to have an advance look!

    Not sure how much the tropics will act up this season, but I have read a couple of very different forecasts. I don’t think the NOAA has issued theirs yet. (Predictably at the most recent National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans the emphasis, given Sandy and Isaac, was on impact and not categories.)

  4. Thanks TK !

    May 6 represents about the midway point btwn the vernal equinox and summer solstice (46 days past equinox, 46 days to the solstice).

    Noticed southern tier of Canada, south of about 55 to 60 degrees north latitude was in the 70s yesterday across most of the country, from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic. Along with that, the snowcover has dramatically receded to about 60 degrees north.

    1. Thanks Tom regarding May 6…I have to remember that date from now on. 🙂

      Is that always the date?

      1. Pretty much, can be ever so slightly earlier or later depending on when the last leap year was.

        1. It, looks as if our summer house is available for us last two weeks of July so we may be heading your way after all…….big smile 😀

  7. It has been a beautiful stretch of weather at Lyndon State College. Temperatures have been in the mid-upper 70s with plenty of sun and light winds. Not looking forward to the second half of the week into the weekend when the ULL takes over. The other side, later next week, should be summer-like. Last final is May 16th!

  9. Thanks TK for the summer outlook! It would be nice if you could post outlooks for the other seasons in this format in the future as well if you haven’t already. 🙂

    1. Certainly not here in Boston…can’t get out of the 50’s with persistent sea breeze day after day after day…………..

  12. Its 53F at Logan and its 50F !!!! atop Mt. Washington, what a warm airmass above us !!

    With regards to rain midweek, I dont think I’m impressed. The rain coverage with this system now is broken up at best and I think the upper low is supposed to be weakening with time. The weekend system looks like it sends it rain to our north and west, or the majority of it anyway.

    I think by week’s end, precip totals may not be very large, maybe 1/2 inch ???

      1. We can’t seem to get rid of it. And its just a tiny spot so more a right of spring than a problem. But thank you 🙂 My mom said All I had to do was look at it to get it and she was right.

        1. Have you contacted a gardening professional to get that ivy off your property Vicki?

            1. Poison ivy is no picnic. I got two years ago removing ivy from the brick of my condo unit no realizing there was poison ivy in the vines.

              1. I just have a few spots. I’ve been covered before and you are right —-its nasty. When younger I had it everywhere including on my face and the dr in NH where were were vacationing told me not to cry or itd go in my eyes and I’d go blind. Of course he was a quack but as a teenage girl I immediately burst into tears

  14. I think since the beginning of March, our precipitation is about 4″ below normal. I don’t know if we can pick up 1.5-2.0″ from Weds-Sun, but it would help.

  16. Hello from Cuba!! What an amazing country and people. Highly recommend if you get a chance you go before it changes.

    Hot and mostly sunny upper 80’s throughout trip. Back on Friday.

    1. are you able to snorkle the coral reef on the south facing side? One of the last that has had almost no human contact

  17. Hi Hadi and It’s great to hear from you and also that you are having a great time!!

    61.1 here already….wow. Charlie, Mac mowed the lawn last night for the first time. We are the second in the neighborhood to mow. The earth is so dry that for the first time in the 34 years we have lived here there was a lot of dust kicked up too.

  19. EAST WIND!*(@)#&*!&@*(#&!*()@&#!&@#&!)@#(&!)(#&)!(@#&!)(@#!&(@

    Yesterday was UNBELIEVABLE!! That East wind was atrocious!!!!
    75 inland, 55 at my house, 53 at Logan. That is rude!!!!

    Even today, it is 75 at my house (what a difference!) and 66 at the airport.

    Can we BAN EAST WINDS?????????????????????????????????? at least in the Spring.

    I’d rather it be 100 than 55 with the wind off of that ocean.

    It is driving me insane. I really can’t stand it.

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: May 7 2013, 11:50 am EDT
    Tue, 07 May 2013 11:50:00 -0400

    Water Temperature: 50.9 °F (10.5 °C)

    Until that water temperature warms considerably, we’re going to have
    that persistent East wind whenever the pressure gradient slackens.

    HOPEFULLY, this stubborn block has really broken down and will be GONE
    until next year.

    1. Wow – that is more than rude……sorry, OS 🙁

      I never did justify the expense of a gas fire pit for our deck but if I lived anywhere near your east wind, I bet I could justify it in a heartbeat.

      1. Sorry for such a vent, but it wears on one.

        Today is a glorious day, so far. 😀

        Now, I only hope the Sox can find a closer. Too bad they absolutely RUINED Daniel Bard with that FOOLISH starter experiment. PATHETIC management for sure.

        😀

        1. Don’t be sorry – it’s good to vent and being weather people I think everyone here would feel the same way….especially when spring is literally a few streets away 🙂

    2. OS, that is so well put…

      I live 2 blocks from Wollaston Beach and work on Fan Pier in Boston, and that east wind is freeeeeeezing!

  20. When I was going to college up there it would be in the 60s where I was and back in CT where I live it was in the upper 70s low 80s. The wind off the water stinks in the spring but it is great in the summer.

  21. Latest Observations:

    Logan 63 Wind EAST
    Blue Hill 75 Wind SOUTH
    Norwood 76 Wind SOUTH

    Go Figure!!

    1. 🙁

      75.8 here – DP 53 with a gust.

      I meant to say on here that I think it was Sunday?? that the cool east wind made its way to Uxbridge. Pretty far inland I’d say.

    2. LOL ….. Definitely milder along the coast today along with a bit more humidity, dp’s in the mid 50s. I was thinking OS what you wrote above, that was perfect, its been very chilly along the coastline and 80F in Quebec City, go figure.

  22. Been extremely busy the past 36 hours. Will get this thing updated later this evening!

  24. Looks like a quarter to half inch of rain Wed evening Thu am and then around a half inch of rain on Sat, great news!!

  26. Marshfield, late yesterday afternoon, got a taste of some of the inland warmth, getting into the low-mid 70s with a southerly breeze.

    I see on the morning news that BB and JR have 79F and 76F respectively now on Friday for Logan. Boy, has that forecasted temperature been going up 3 to 4F daily. At thos rate, Friday will end up about 85F. 🙂

    Hoping to get those rainshowers later today !!

  27. Just had a hefty but brief rain shower here. Wind and rain actually sounded nice. I was outside at the time and stood a bit just to enjoy.

  28. Left the house to a rain shower with much blue sky showing. Interesting.
    Right now it is really nice out. I know folks concerned about their lawns and gardens
    want the rain. Personally, I don’t want any of it.

    I have a feeling we won’t get as much rain as advertised. We shall see.
    😀

    1. Fortunately I have my irrigation system that has been watering my lawn. My grass seed has just germinated a few days ago. I hope the rain doesn’t wash away the new seedlings 🙁

        1. They did germinate but only a few days ago so the seedlings are only 1/2 an inch long and I’m sure the kentucky blue grass hasn’t germinated and won’t for another 10 days or so. Hopefully the seedlings however don’t get washed away.

  29. It appears what little sun we had is disappeared and its lightly sprinkling, I’m fine with it being cloudy and rainy and the weekend looks wet esp sat 🙂

  31. Thanks, TK.

    I am agreeing with you, JJ – we need the rain.

    Very interesting sky here in Sudbury – dark clouds with bright and even some sunny spots with some light rain showers.

    Yesterday for the first time I could really smell all the flora in the bushes, etc.

    Spring has sprung!

    1. Hi Rainshine!! You are right — the sky is tons of fun to watch today. And it sure feels summery!!!

  32. The thing with this rain coming some areas could get a good amount as was the case with NYC which was under a flash flooding warning earlier this morning and other areas not much at all. I see there is thunderstorms with some of the rain coming in. I don’t see any severe weather here in SNE so only going with a 1 on the 1-4 thunderstorm index since they should remain below severe levels.

    1. It sure looks like a summery sky. And I’m hoping that we all get some good rain out of this – but, as you said, some areas may not get much.

  34. Took a long walk, getting cloudy in Newton. A little hazy/humid.

    Saw a rain map with about a 1/4″ for Boston and over an inch for some areas through tomorrow night. PM commute today looks a little rough. Sox game looking very rough.

  35. I think today may have to qualify as an early summer’s day, the first of the year.

    Dewpoints are near 60F and the sun is helping to produce scattered showers and storms, with most temps above 70F just inland from the shoreline.

  38. Looking at the National radars and surface maps, it certainly appears that:

    1. The low pressure area is moving more Northward and well to our West.
    2. Most of the precipitation (Save for a few pop-up showers/storms) is remaining
    to the West and does not appear to be heading our way.

    Now, that “may” change tonight, but so far anyway, I am not surprised in the least.
    When we are dry, we “tend” to stay dry. 😀

    1. Sure does look that way – even that big blog to the southeast of the Cape and Islands looks as if it may slide east of Boston – maybe.

  40. Not much measurable precip east of 495. Kind of a busted forecast. Look for scattered showers to continue off and on for the next few days but still no organized, widespread rain in site.

  41. Ugh hope the long range depiction from the 12z runs of GFS and Euro are out to lunch.

  43. Picked up .17 so far in 3 different 3-5 min downpours, more coming up from the south

  44. It appears RI CT and western 2 3rds of Mass of gotten most of this, Boston may get nothing will c, very scattered in amounts w/ 1 town coming in at a trace and a town over getting a half inch of rain

    2. Southbridge and Springfield got less than we did. Uxbridge got a little over .25. Hit or miss I guess

      1. What we saw today is typical of what we see in the summer months where some areas get soaked and other areas little if any rainfall.

  45. Update by 8:30!

    Sorry for the very lengthy delay in getting back here…

    1. Please please do not ever worry. We are all fine!!!!! And if things get slow I can always recount memories of my youth 😉

      1. HAHAHAHAHA!

        We’d love to hear them anyway I’m sure. 🙂

        Blog is updated!

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