Heat Off

95 Comments

7:02AM

Now the cooler stretch after the early heat burst, courtesy Canada. High pressure from there provides this into midweek. But as this is going on, tropical moisture is setting up from the Yucatan Peninsula across Cuba and eventually pushing into Florida. Not sure if this turns into the first tropical cyclone of the season but at least the moisture will lift northward and provide a good chance of some beneficial rain here later this week.  Timing still being worked on for this but Friday-Saturday looks like the wettest time period.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun & fair weather clouds. Highs in the 70s with refreshing dry air. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Any fair weather clouds vanish to clear sky. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH diminishing to light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, some 60s South Coast. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Tropical showers developing. Low 60. High 74.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers likely. Low 64. High 73.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Low 60. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain/thunder possible. Low 60. High 76.

95 thoughts on “Heat Off”

  1. Thanks TK. I made mention in last blog of the tropical activity you speak of, but I am thinking it looks a little to disorganized to a true tropical event, let alone a named storm. Any other thoughts?

  2. Thanks, TK.

    What a change in air-mass! I don’t mind heat-waves like we had recently during the summer, 2 or 3 days max w/heat and humidity and then a series of days of cooler and drier air. And some rainy days like we are s’posed to have later this wk. to keep any droughts away. Looking forward to the tropical rains on Fri. and Sat., ‘though I don’t like the rain ruining people’s plans.

  4. What a refreshing morning. I was surprised when I just took the dog out – and pleased!!!

    Thanks TK

  7. Thanks TK! Absolutely beautiful out there this morning. My family has the beach and pool bug now so bring on summer!!!

  8. It suddenly occured to me that we are currently under the influence of Don Kent’s Summer Polar Air! May the 80’s and 90’s never return again the rest of the year…or the rest of this “decade” for that matter. 😀

  9. While I do agree that today’s weather is picture perfect, I do like more summery weather as we get into the summer. HHH I dont like, but lower to mid 80’s with low to mod humidity is ideal for summer activities. Can’t really enjoy a pool or the beach in today’s weather.

      1. haha, i gotcha Vicki, the beach can be really beautiful in winter. I should have said beach activities like sunbathing, swimming in the water, boogie/skim boarding, playing beach volleyball, etc.

        1. I knew what you meant and you are absolutely right. I was just having fun!! This fresh air and 80 degrees would be very welcome for summer!

  11. Doesn’t appear 80s will be in the cards any time soon as we head into a cooler, wetter and more active weather pattern which will be anamalous for this time of year. The weather will feel and look more like mid April rather than early June.

  15. Blah blah blah.. This is not what a i had in mind. sorry guys the cold and snowy weather is perfect november through march into early april .then 60s and 70s until memorial day then i want 70s and 80s to 80s and 90s from june through the first few weeks of septemember then its marching band season and 60s and 70s are great then.

  17. Here you go Matt

    JimmyJames says:
    At least 1 double digit snowfall for Boston
    7 out of 12 months with above normal temps
    below normal precipitation for the year
    15-20 90 degree days
    1-2 tornado watches posted including 2-3 big thunderstorm days.
    What are your bold weather predictions for 2013??? I would love to hear them.

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    My only partially scientific 2013 predictions…
    Still maintain near to below normal snow for the winter overall but 1 or 2 significant snow events probably February and/or March. It will snow in March this year.
    2013 drought intensifies through mid summer and is broken by a series of tropical rain events August / early September.
    Less than normal amount of t-storms but one severe weather outbreak in June or early July that will include a few “low precipitation” super cell thunderstorms much like what you see in West Texas.
    Quick description of the 12 months (not an official forecast):
    JAN: dry, chilly start, mild middle, cold finish
    FEB: cold & snowy (but not too much above normal)
    MAR: milder, some snow but drying trend
    APR: cool & dry but a couple brief warm spells
    MAY: mild & dry but a couple brief hot spells
    JUN: hot & dry, drought worsens
    JUL: hot & dry, drought peaks
    AUG: warm with tropical rains breaking the drought
    SEP: wet & muggy start .. chilly & dry finish
    OCT: dry & cool transitioning to wet & cold
    NOV: cold & wet start with early snow then dry & cold
    DEC: brief thaws otherwise cold with frequent fast-moving snow events

    rainshine says:
    I remember doing this last yr. and I was so wrong! And I’m sure I will be very wrong again this year, but here goes:
    Winter : I still believe we will be getting at least 2 more big snowstorms this season – probably in late Feb./March. At least one of them will be of blizzard proportions. Temps. for the rest of the winter will be up and down, resulting in an average winter. temp. wise.
    Spring: spring will start out wet and cold, early part will be some snow. By May we will dry out and warm up – but no real heat yet.
    Summer: kind of agreeing w/TK a bit, here. First part of summer will heat up and be dry, up until mid-late Aug. when some strong systems will give us a lot of rain. I will go for 3 tornado watches and a few severe thunderstorm watches. Some storms will be really severe, possibly a tornado or 2, late June or July. And I have to add that I believe in Sept. or Oct. New England gets a big hurricane. We get brushed by at least one tropical system during the summer.
    Fall: a wetter scenerio ends the summer and temps. cool down leading to a cool and wet fall.
    Winter: can’t see that far – will take a guess to an unusually snowy winter.

    Tom says:
    2013 Weather Predictions
    10 out of 12 months above normal temps, 8 out of 12 months below normal precip.
    February 2 to 14 time frame : a close to 20 inch snowfall at Logan.
    April 17 to 25 time frame : first 90F day
    Mid June to early August : New England will once again sit at the eastern edge of a huge central US ridge. It will be in the mid 80s to low 90s consistently without a lot of high humidity. On occasion, a bit of the extreme heat will break off from the ridge and Logan will have 2 days of temps 98F to 102F, with a total of 12 to 15 90F plus days.
    August-September : as the anomolously mild Atlantic ocean temps continue with no big La Nina or El Nino in place, New England for the 3rd year in a row will be impacted by a tropical system.
    October-December : autumn will continue to a bit milder than normal and the first snow at Logan will fall between Dec. 9th thru the 16th.
    Tom added the following: To clarify……. the Feb 20 inch snowfall all from one storm.

    matt souza says:
    JAN: dry with near normal temperatures.
    FEB: snowy and cold
    MAR: near mormal to slightly below normal temperatures with some snow first half of the month.
    APR: dry and cool to start then wet and mild later half of the month
    MAY: dry and warm
    JUN: mild and dry
    JUL: Extreme heat most of the month seeing 90+ with little precipitation besides for a few cold fronts moving though which in general will be thunderstormed starved.
    AUG: warm with a tropical air mass
    SEP: near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures
    OCT: wet and cold
    NOV: cool and wet with are first snowfall sometime around or after thanksgiving
    DEC: cold and dry some light snow events from alberta clippers

    Philip says:
    Here are my 2013 predictions:
    1. Game time temps for the Pats playoff game on 1/13/13 will be at least 45-50+. I have no idea if rain will fall or just fair skies.
    2. Boston will get ONE and only ONE significant snowfall with no mix or change. All other storms will see change to rain or rain from beginning to end. Water temps will remain above 40 degrees. Suburbs will get more snow aplenty which will make Logan’s final total for the winter very deceiving compared to the rest of SNE.
    3. The SB will feature Pats vs. Redskins…Brady vs. RG III.
    4. Drought #s for Logan will reach double digits again, but for a much longer period of time. IIRC it was only for a couple of days or so just last month.

    North says:
    My weather prediction for 2013:
    January: Drier and seasonably cold with a moderate snowstorm during the last week of the month.
    February: article cold start with a very stormy mid-late month with a sizable snowfall in there (15 inches).
    March: stormy first few days with some snow, drier and mild after that.
    April and May: Dry and seasonable after a cool start to April.
    June and July: Dry and hot with moderate humidity courtesy of a west to Northwest flow around the central ridge.
    August and September: Dry and hot first half of August, increasing tropical rains in the second half into the beginning of September, drier and mild after that.
    October: Dry and seasonable temps.
    November: Dry and cool to start. Cold and stormy to finish with 2 storms featuring snow just away from the coast.
    December: very cold with frequent snow events!

    John says:
    My call for 2013.
    1. The warmth coming in is overdone and will return to cold air by the time the pats play in a very cold game.
    2. Next snowstorm MLK weekend.
    3. Still going with a cold and snowy winter finishing with above for snow. Two very big snow event to boost the numbers, than some clippers. South shore community right down to the cape major snow event with double digits.
    3. Cold march with one storm probably a mix event Boston/south.
    4. Nice spring with warm weather again in April.
    5. Hot/ dry summer.
    6. Storm again for labor day weekend for like the third year. This Time a hurricane that will rival Bob and Gloria.
    7. Very nice warm fall.

    Vicki says:
    January – Average temps and dry
    February – One larger storm (8+) and two smaller events (2-4) temps a little above average
    March – early storm (6-10) then above avg temps
    April – June below normal precip and above avg temps
    July – August – above avg temps, below avg precip and possible TS or Hurricane late August
    Sept – October – above avg temps, avg precip
    Nov – above to avg temps, perhaps one low-mod snow event
    Dec – above to avg temps and a few small snow events

    Old Salty say:
    A hot summer

  18. VERY busy day.

    Including my son being on his way to DC for 4 days. The kid has stayed out of the house 2 times in 13 years and now he’s off to DC with the school. Fun times. 😉

    I’ll get caught up with all comments after 6PM!

    1. Wish your son a great trip …… and I hope dad does ok too. It’s never easy but it sure is exciting.

  19. For early June, I thought today explained where the saying “Chamber of Commerce Weather ” came from.

  20. Looking about at high latitude observations, I found at buoy at about 88 degrees north latitude where the temperature hit 1 celcius today, which, in my opinion, is a tremendous surge of mild air for early June…… Usually the melt ponds at/near the North Pole occur in July.

    Also, the first real mild surge of this warm season has been working across the Arctic Circle (66.5 N Latitude). It was in the mid 40s in Barrow, AK yesterday and there’s some 50s and 60s in north central Canada advecting over the ice covered coastal waters.

    Churchill, Canada, which is around 60N Latitude, on the western shores of Hudson Bay, was in the mid 50s today and there was a lot of sun shining on the Hudson Bay Ice. Hudson Bay is beginning to show a lot of openings on the ice and will begin a quick icing out period over the next 4-6 weeks.

    I am fascinated by the arctic ice melt during the summer and have become a believer in the idea that the lowering ice minimums over the last several years are having an effect on our fall and winter weather. I am very interested in seeing if this year’s minimum goes lower than last year’s, which set a record in the satellite record.

    While the upcoming negative NAO likely will keep our weather relatively cool and somewhat wet, it could provide another surge of warmth into the arctic. Should be an interesting summer !

    1. By buoy at 88 North Latitude, I should have chosen my words better, its not a buoy in the sense of a buoy floating in water. Its sitting on ice covered ocean, recording weather data.

  21. Another thing I love about June … the long days and all the sunshine. Its paying off today, as Logan has recorded its warmest temp at 6pm, in part due to all the cumulus clouds going poof and temps above us moderating a bit, with Mt. Washington now up to 32F.

  22. To Longshot regarding your question above:

    It may become named but I don’t think it ever gets that organized…

  23. Double digit snow fall 7 outa 12 months?? No way!! Just so I can get this right. He’s predicting 10+ inches for each month from November to May? Geez I think he’s kidding 🙂

  24. I think we r in for a very cold and snowy Dec followed by a record warm period in Mid Jan early Feb

  27. Charlie I are you are putting out your winter forecast already.

    Let me guess below average snow and above average temps. Lots of rain and winter is over by late January.

    1. 2.6 mile width ….. wow, I mean from exit 12 to 13 on Rte. 3 is about 4 miles and I’m trying to visualize a tornado whose width is more than half that distance.

      1. That didn’t take long.

        2+ mile wide tornadoes have occurred in the past.

        We’re a whole lot better at measuring path width these days.

        I love how the “active” tornado year is being blamed on GW. Can somebody explain to me what we blame the almost non-existent recent season?

        *listening to the sound of crickets chirp* … Yup, thought so.

        1. Why do I think Canada had a huge tornado season last year? Its been a long day so if I am incorrect simply ignore me :).

  29. To TK. It looks a little more organized and may become a semi-tropical depression. Don’t think this will ever be a named storm but it does look like it might get a little rotation going.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  30. TWC said that the Storm chasers were killed and TWC crew injured because that
    El Reno tornado took a “right” turn.

    I don’t buy that. Here is my theory.

    The chasers were in tight (but safe) on perhaps a 1/2 mile wide tornado, when it under went massive intensification and expanded to 2.6 miles wide. During this expansion,
    the crews were trying to escape, but it expanded and intensified so fast that it caught
    up with the crews before they could get away. A very sad, but most unusual situation.

    Any thoughts?

    1. they said they were caught in one of the smaller tornado’s circulating the larger one

      1. OK, if that is the case, then I contend that this was part
        of the intensification/expansion. 😀

        1. I’ve read some and don’t have the knowledge but it sure seems that makes sense. These were very experienced individuals

        2. these smaller cirulating tornados are erattic . they show up and then disapear but can have winds up to ef2

  31. I’m not sure the crickets ever stop chirping Tk, look at all the environmental rules and regulations coming in the next decade, not to mention all the rules and regulations (recycling etc etc) that costing us, again there chirping Tk and loud 🙂

    1. There is a reason for the regulations. I was having a discussion with a friend this morning re pcbs in fish. I can tell you some horror stories from back before regulation on just askarel contamination – the results of which cost a whole lot more than a few regulations.

  32. Enjoying today since a rainorama looks to be happening Friday and Saturday. I don’t think it rains constantly during that timeframe but when it comes down it will come down in buckets. I don’t see any thunderstorms with this storm system.

  33. Sunday is looking like the better of the two weekend days right now. The other thing to look at with this storm system is where the heavy rain bands sets up shop. In that area flooding certainly a possibility.

  36. Now the 12z EURO is right over Cape Cod Canal with the low ……. Seems to be jogging a bit east with time, while the GFS sails out to sea. Gee, 40F colder and this sounds quite familiar to winter.

    1. I should specify that it is the Atlantic Hurricane Season before someone corrects me. 🙂

  39. It will interesting what the hurricane hunters find. I am noticing a lot of dry air on the western side of the system which is not good for development. The biggest thing with this system whether it becomes a depression or storm is the rainfall associated with it.

  40. Latest info about system in Gulf.
    hurrtrackerapp Hurricane Hunters just found Tropical Storm force winds. If they find a closed low, we could have a named system…

  41. Geez the models paint a completely opposite picture than drought and heat, lots of rain and possible flooding is possible over the next 7-10 days, get out the umbrella

    1. I thought the forecast for a while has been for rain and not heat. Drought was never a discussion. Ill wait and hope we get a good dose here.

      1. No I know but to think we were talking about it a week ago was silly IMO but anyways it looks wet

        1. Charlie we were not talking about drought a week ago and as of this minute we are overly dry. So there is nothing silly. Its simply fact

  45. Geez my wife for a 2nd week is stuck on the train between 128 and Sharon, the train guy said they had to move over to allow incoming trains to come in, she said she’s been on the train stopped for 15-20 min’s now, just so frustrating, anybody know if building more tracks outa south station has passed?

  46. http://mansfield.m.wickedlocal.com/wkdMansfield/db_103906/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=VqeU1WBw
    There actually forcing people to drive in this already traffic clogged area by raising rates to $16 rd trip boston to 128, the only reason why ridership is down is bc of this gigantic hike, record ridership in 2011-12, then you can’t build anything big in the suburbs so everyone’s going to 1 area for work, boston, why don’t we designate some areas where company’s can build in the suburbs? Maybe then everyones not going to 1 spot boston, there’s plenty of land in foxboro and a lot of other towns, that way people aren’t traveling so far, sorry it really makes me wanna throw up 🙁

    1. $320 a month to travel on train 10 miles in 10 miles out and have delays once a week or sit in traffic for 2 hrs along with stress, I feel so bad for my wife, beautiful night out

      1. Indeed it does. 1-3 solid inches is a good possibility and will both significantly decrease the remaining deficit and delay any drought that may try to develop.

    1. Would agree. Been following this system since it 1st appeared in the models and it has yet to get it together. It could gain some rotation but just can’t see it developing much further.

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