How Much?

153 Comments

5:35PM

Hi all! Our storm will be getting underway this evening, and already has in some areas with some snow/mix falling, especially along and southeast of I-95. This area will expand and intensify during this evening, leading to heaviest precipitation sometime after 10pm, and especially after midnight, until sometime shortly before dawn.

As I have been worried about all along, it appears the intensity of the precipitation and the time of occurrence will be enough to produce some significant snow in much of the area from near Boston, west and north. There is still some uncertainty of where a rain/snow line sets up and oscillates, so amounts I am about to forecast are still subject to change. Here is what I expect from this system, snowfall-wise, through Friday.

Cape Cod & Islands: Nothing (rain) except perhaps a dusting of light snow Friday afternoon.

SE MA: Around 1 inch.

Immediate Boston Area: 1-3 inches with potentially a little more just NW of the city.

I-95 corridor: 2-6 inches with a very slight chance of isolated heavier amounts along and just NW of I-95.

495 belt south of the Mass Pike: 2-6 inches.

495 belt north of the Mass Pike including Worcester Hills: 6-10 inches with locally around a foot in the higher elevations.

NH Seacoast: 2-6 inches, lowest along the immediate shoreline.

Inland southern NH: 4-8 inches except 6-10 inches in the higher elevations of SW NH.

Lakes Region NH: 6-12 inches.

Be back later with a full forecast including an update on this storm and a look at the first weekend of April and beyond. Have a safe evening!

153 thoughts on “How Much?”

  3. Temp on Hanover is 35 with a dew of 32. Droppes2 degrees in the last hour. First flakes with rain started around 4:45pm. Wife is a teacher in Plymouth, she said snow started falling there in the 4 oclock hour. Currenlty on Rte 3 in Kingston, its snowing hard, nothing sticking yet.

  4. Light snow/drizzle in Marblehead with the temp dropping quick, down to 37, was 40 like 15 mins ago.

  6. Watching Harvey again he is the best. He is going over some new information. He is starting to see a colder system and is considering he may up some areas.

  7. Harvey said that spring storms in NE are notorious for “surprises”…and this may be no exception.

  9. Harvey just updated because of the eastern track the storm is now looking to take with the colder solution. 2-4 for boston. He had rain down this way and changed it to
    T-2inches.

  12. From NWS

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
    — Changed Discussion –6 PM…UPDATED SNOWFALL TO BRING SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS INTO REST
    OF N CT…NW RI AND SUBURBS AROUND BOS /ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS/.
    NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER…BUT AMOUNTS MAY NEED
    TO BE NUDGED UP A LITTLE MORE LATER THIS EVENING.

    TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S DUE TO WET BULB
    COOLING WHICH HAS FORCED A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW. EVEN HAD RECENT
    REPORT OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME RAIN IN FALMOUTH MA. CHANGEOVER
    TEMPERATURE SEEMS TO BE AROUND 37F.

    TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY INTO THIS EVENING SO WE SHOULD
    HAVE MORE SNOW VS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND EASTERN MA…WHICH
    WILL SLOWLY EXPAND INTO REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST HAS
    BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. STILL LOOKING AT HEAVIEST
    PRECIP OVERNIGHT.– End Changed Discussion —

  13. Like others above, the snow is beginning to accumulate and turn the ground white, here in eastern Marshfield.

  14. Look at that heavy band setting up on the south coast. Looks to ride through SE Mass. I wonder if it will add to the accumulations around there.

  15. What I find interesting while looking at area radars is that even though it is now all snow here in Boston, the colors are still “green” while well over SE MA & Cape, now all “blue”. Very strange to see blue s&e with green n&w. 🙂

      1. Yes TK, I think I get your “drift”, so to speak…lol. 🙂

        I have to admit I was a bit puzzled by your response for a few seconds. 🙂

      2. TK- As you saw BM has posted on wbz. he has not been on for sometime. Will you be sending him an invite. It sure would be good to have him here tonight. Go bruins.

        2. BaileyMan is invited if he wants to come onboard. I’m still curious as to whether or not I may know him from some time ago.

          1. YES TK-I just saw that coastal sent him the email. That would be funny if you knew him. I am sitting here typing watching the game. Tk I took a look at the maps but just lines and numbers. I hope you can teach me how to read them, a teaching section on here would be great. You can call it TK’S WEATHER CLASSROOM. I bet that class would be full.

          2. Maybe someone should bring a laptop to the next meetup, or one you can go to, and we’ll do a little hands-on with the maps.

    1. Coastal BM has posted on wbz, and for sure it is him. He has not posted in some time. could you send him an invite. Myself and I am sure others here would love to see him on this site. Who knows he may not send another blog to wbz.

  18. City of Boston South and East-Coating-2″
    128 -Metro North &West 1-3″
    495 Belt South of Rt 2 2-4″
    Elevated areas of NE CT and NW RI 2-4″
    495 Belt North of RT 2 4-6″
    RT 2 North and West 6-9″ (Including SNH)
    Worcester South 3-6″
    Worcester North 6-9″
    CT River Valley 3-5″
    Elevated Locations- Worcester Hills, East Slopes of the Berkshires 8-10″

    Changes from 24 hours ago are to go from rain in the city to a Coating-2″ and from a coating to 2″ to 1-3″ 128 Metro North and West

  19. I still don’t see this a significant winter weather maker in the city, but right now TK is 100% right with his colder solution. My accumulations are for grassy surfaces, not roadways. FYI -Talking to people throughout the CT River Valley of MA, there has been no precip there all day, save for a few stray sprinkles. The area is a weather phenomenon.

  20. Interesting…..we had a lighter precip the past hour, but what caught my attention is that the light precip fell as snow, not turning back to rain. Last 10 minutes have been heavier snow and now with darkness, it is whitening up quite well.

    1. The air near the ground was very dry today, despite the mild temperatures. We have seen a great deal of cooling of the column due to evaporative cooling in this first thrust of precipitation. This is what I was counting on as the “surprise”. Now we have to see how much warm air is able to advect in later. I have a feeling with the slightly eastward jog in the track, it may be somewhat limited.

      1. sounds good to me and nice call………. Its funny watching the snow sticking. Can almost see which parts of the ground have absorbed a decent amount of the recent sunshine and what parts havent or are still frozen.

      2. So what do you think for down here Tk. Myself, Coastal and SST
        all live near by. And I second that for the laptop or anything else
        that will help me.

        1. It’ll be a tough call down there since that may be one area the warm air CAN make it in aloft, but I’d cautiously call for a couple inches there.

      1. Hi John.

        Yes, and I’m sure if I went up Rte. 139 westward towards the Pembroke/Marshfield line by Rte 3 and 99’s restaurant, I’d see even more snow than we have down here right by the ocean….Ok, I thought I was done with snow, but now that its falling, its good to see it one more time this season. I hope its one more time though 🙂

        1. But do you think it will stick to the ground. I just sent TK a message asking him for his thoughts down here. My wife and I were in the mug this morning, do you go there.

          1. yes, I do. Just peeked outside. Moderate snow and in the last 10-15 minutes, the ground has coated over and some of the pavement is beginning to get coated. I do think near the low passage, the column above us will warm for rain, so, it might melt quickly…….Yes, I know the mug well. Have to admit I havent been in there in a while, but always have had great food and service there.

  21. Chatting with Nick Morganelli (broadcast met out of Springfield MA) on FB. We went to school together before he transfered out. He feels that it will warm enough aloft later to push the R/S line NW of Boston by some distance.

    Not sure I’m agreeing with him at the moment.

  22. coastal, I have heard of them and we have not tried them, however the reviews of friends from around our town have always been good………TK, it will be interesting to see where that critical temp aloft makes it. Think it may make it to the northern part of the southshore (Quincy, Hingham) or over the Boston area itself.

  23. Its not true of other obs, but Nantuckets wind is backing slowly the last few hours. Its now 040 degrees. Dont know if that is anything to read into as far as a storm track further south and east.

  24. That green area of precip just to the north of the yellows around the canal is moderate to heavy snow, which is what is falling right now. It is accumulating quickly !! There are going to be some reported snowfall totals in a strip to the southeast of Boston from this initial band, even if it rains later tonight.

  25. Coastal yes great pizza but the wait is unreal. Stories on that place when I was younger
    but we won’t go there. You. myself and SST should meet sometime at the mug. Two goals in 59seconds from the bruins 2-1 boston.

      1. That would be great but what is the Mug? And Vicki my darling, your from metro west. How do you know about the mug? I feel so out of touch. 🙂

        I got 32 degrees now in Hanover.

        1. Best eggs in town and fastest meal you will ever get. I was thinking coastal we should put an offer in on starland. It would make for a great weather office. Man we have a shootout going on.

        2. coastal – we spend several weeks in the summer at Humarock – I’ve been going there summers since I was one and now we have our fourth generation joining us. I love the area.

  26. Vicki- you get around. It seems like you and I like the same hangouts. How is the snow in your area.

  28. Here in Wrentham we have changed to a rain snow mix, temp is 33.1 degrees and it has slowed in accumulation rate the last hour, we’ve gotten about a half an inch on grassy surfaces but nothing on any pavement, very very wet and damp 🙂 busy tonight for me, I’ll be back in a little 🙂

  29. When I was growing up in Marshfield after a fun night we would alway’s stop in famous
    and we would all get pizza to bring home.

  30. Working on packing so don’t have much to add a whole, but mix here is wet flakes and rain in JP. Sticking to car and grass just a little.

    JMA and TK great job breaking it down for us!

  32. Hadi have a great trip. Good thing Logan is practically in the ocean. Pelham, NH has light snow just a dusting 35 degrees. I live on a hill so I may see a little extra. Radar down stream doesn’t look so impressive. Is this going to get its act together too late?

    1. Just went outside and everything is snow covered except the road. My neighborhood has really only the people who live here coming through, so it is not like cars coming and going all the time. Weird that it is not sticking on the ground here.

  34. Safe Trip Hadi, and enjoy your vacation with your family!

    I have a 11 month old daughter and a boy due in July. I cannot wait for family vacations.

    1. Coastal that is great on the new one coming. Family vacations great. We try to do a big trip everyother year. My son will be turning seven in a couple weeks. He has already flown 3times and has been on the boston to bermuda trip. More than I ever did at his age, but he is the one and only.So coastal if we buy starland the kids can have a blast everyday.

  35. Thanks everyone!! Will try to bring back some warmth with me.

    I see the trolls are going nuts, btw Charlie one of them is looking for you:-). I have come to the conclusion that it really is 1 person.

    1. 99% of that trolling is one person. I’m pretty certain it is the person who was known as sorenson3 last winter, among other names. There are a few other troublemakers and rude ones out there, but he is the main deal. It’s astounding the amount of time he spends on that blog every day for the soul purpose of being a jerk.

      But it’s been fun watching him try to shift attention away from the fact he’s been saying it can’t snow anymore because it’s spring, now realizing that part of the area are going to get quite a bit for early April.

  39. Hadi-Have a great trip. I will miss our back and forth. You will get out fine. I think the further east scenario makes this storm weaker and thus you should not have significant wind issues.

  40. hello all.

    Just getting back in.

    Safe travels Hadi.

    Pretty out already. 1.5″ and starting to stick to side roads

  41. TK agree on its mostly one person. I know this opinion won’t be popular and I may be off base, but I felt like BM writing style seemed to be some of the initial fuel for the venom on the BZ blog. It seemed to me the trolls fed off of that and then used it to spew crap at the others.

    1. JMA…the trolls were around last winter as well. It’s just that with the “old” website WBZ had much more control.

    2. I understand what you mean. BM’s blogs have always been entertaining. But the troll-type do certainly feed off of it. Still, he should be able to write however he likes. It’s a shame it came to what it did…

  42. Barry believes the rain/snow line will go all the way back to Worcester overnight. TK is this possible?

    Have a good trip Hadi! 🙂

    2. Funny you should say that coastal. When the sprinkles and ice pellets first fell, it really “smelled” like spring.

  46. TK- Starting to wonder do you really live in woburn. Now that one gave me a good laugh. I smell overtime.

    1. I had a good laugh over that. I was getting ready to invite them down to DD’s in Four Corners for a cup of coffee so I could prove it.

  48. There was a person on CN who had a bunch of different identities. Even though you had to register. I was thinking the other day that most if not all is one person. The posts from the troll on the weather blog remind me of the way that troll on CN posted. Oddly that person posted on weather the other day randomly under the main name used on CN. I’m sure no one will ever be sure but I’m not a huge believer in coincidence.

  49. after about another half hour lull to the precip around 8:30 to 9pm, it has been snowing moderately again. The snowflakes under these bright yellow bands on the radar are huge. About 1.5 inches on the lawns and this last steady burst of snow has even greased up the roads.

  50. hey coastal & philip,

    saw two guys in a bass boat yesterday morning on Lake quinsigamong in Shrewsbury. That’s a good sign too.

  52. There are dozens of crocuses “shivering” in my backyard. When its cloudy and at night they close up and when the sun is out, they expand. Either way they are absolutely beautiful. No dafodils or jonquils up just yet.

    1. Yes- did you see those 3inch spots already down the cape. This was an area to get all rain. I am wondering this storm is just about to get going if I am right. Could we see even higher amounts down the cape and here on the southshore. Everything here now in Penbroke is snow covered. It’s been snowing here since around 5pm.

    2. Is it just me or has Fox been underestimating their snow totals (until upping them at the last minute) all season long? Earlier KL was saying Worcester was in the 3-5″ or something. Not saying I blame him, I know this is a tricky situation… just an observation. FOX seems to go low until the event actually begins.

      Maybe I’m just used to Pete “Nine Inches” Bouchard bombarding the Massachusetts public with warnings of imminent Snowpocalypse.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEnvvW7IjrM&feature=related

      😀

      1. Hi Christie- everybody has went up some. On my last post I had said cape was to get all rain, and now many spots down there already at 3inches. I guess the storm was a tough one to forcast. By 6pm they saw that it was trending east and colder. Same here on the southshore we have been getting some strong snow bursts. I believe down here it should be flipping to rain overnight.

  54. Snow isn’t sticking to the roads in Worcester just yet, but my driveway is starting to get a bit of a slushy coating in spots. Temp is 31.

    Can you imagine if right now was opening night at Fenway? Yikes.

    1. Yeah, good thing they are on the road!

      You’ll get your snow sticking in a couple hours Christie. Things are set to fill in and expand NW soon.

  57. Good evening everyone. Well I did not think it would be snowing in places that it is snowing. I might be a little off only calling for MINOR snowfall for the Boston area but will see when this is done. Will see if this is the last time I am giving impacts for snow because early next week we got a POTENTIAL rain event and there might be some thunderstorms as well. Only in New England can we go from snow to POSSIBLE thunder storm activity early next week.

    1. I can’t wait to read your blogs on thunder-storms. I was going to sign out after the winter. But since this new site is so good I may hang out and and let you guys teach me about something else. Wonder if my laptop will have service by the pool.

  58. I will be blogging when thunderstorms threaten the area and giving the impacts like I have done with snow. Speaking of thunderstorms Florida was the hot spot today with a couple of tornadoes.

    1. Thunderstorms are my favorite! I kept checking the Florida doppler today. It was really quite impressive.

      I have a weird lightning-related story but I’ll save it for a more weather-appropriate time…

      1. Looking forward to hearing your story. I have a few of those myself, including one very close encounter from Seminole, Oklahoma, in May 1992, while on a storm chasing trip.

  59. Snow now sticking pretty good here in Boston. Streets and sidewalks still wet but most other surfaces (cars, rooftops, trees, etc.) are now covered at least somewhat.

  60. It occurs to me I haven’t really looked at any models since 7am. Been using only obs & basic meteorology, Don Kent style baby! 🙂

  61. Still a ton of moisture south of us. Should be interesting to see how it interacts with the cooler air in place.

  62. Pete B just showed the strangest looking snow map I have seen in awhile. Amounts varied all over the place — the broader implication was that towns in relatively close proximity could vary by a lot. I am better off not trying to describe it any further.

    He mentioned that Bourne has 3 inches. He brought up the possibility of thundersnow again.

    2. Longshot – I saw that – he had the dip down into the metrowest 128/495 area that turned out to be absolutely correct.

  67. Barry:
    SE MA = <3"
    Boston = 3-6"
    Merrimack/West/North = 6-9"

    Said the rain/snow line not moving north as fast as models predicted and "might not" reach Boston.

    1. The stuff that is going to come through eastern MA is just northeast of NC now. The stuff further south should swing more to the east with time and pivot northward to the east of the low center during tomorrow morning & midday. Some of that will feed into Maine during the day, which will be the area that snows all day. The main precip should be done by mid morning in Metro Boston with just lingering snow showers after that, maybe rain showers as temps will return to marginal due to the absense of steady precip.

  69. I live in Newton on top of a hill — I have a feeling I am not going to like what I see when I wake up. Good night all.

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