2:30AM
Here is my best guess at the weather pattern and resultant day-by-day weather through the first week of July, including the Independence Day holiday (and 2 weekends either side of it).
The battle between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and low pressure trough centered near the Great Lakes will continue this final weekend of June and the first 2 days of July, with a retrograding ridge eventually being the victor. The result will be mild to warm air, high humidity, and episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday, with less shower activity but still a shower and storm threat lingering Tuesday. Many areas will see lengthy stretches with no rain, but any tropical showers and storms may produce drenching downpours. At this point, I expect the day with the most numerous shower activity in southeastern New England to be Monday.
High pressure will continue to drift westward over the western Atlantic and US East Coast through much of next week, only weakening a little as disturbances try to ride over the top of it from the west by the first weekend of July. The overall pattern for this area will become hotter and continued humid. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated, increasing to scattered in some areas with passing disturbances later in the period.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, southern NH)…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with isolated to scattered showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, up to 20 MPH some coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Patchy fog overnight. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping. Humid. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 77.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered late-day showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 69. High 88.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low 70. High 90.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.
TK, thank you. Looks like Mon-Tues could be the soaker.
Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What causes fog or mist to form?
A. High humidity (near 100%)
B. Dust and pollen
C. Air cooled to where it hits the dew point
D. All of the above
Answer later today
C
Thank you TK and thank you for the quiz longshot.
Ill say D
Thanks TK !
D, hesitantly, though I am leary of A. (against A)
I will go with A.
The beat goes on and I don’t see any comfortable air moving into SNE for a while. As I said yesterday to someone yesterday its not hot but its very muggy. When those overnight lows are in the mid 60s and higher that is an indication the day is going to be humid to very humid side.
From the SPC this morning:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
MID TO UPR 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WITH EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH MINIMAL CIN. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC JET STREAK AND 40-50 KT SWLY…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR…SETUP COULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND…MARGINALLY SVR HAIL…AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVE.
and from the NWS at Taunton:
MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. AGAIN THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON IF CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING THAT THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC AND AGAIN WITH A 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY. BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY FOR TODAY YET THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD DEBRIS AS WELL AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGAIN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY BRINGING IN SOME OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHERE A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND IS MORE FAVORABLE.
REGARDLESS THIS IS SOMETHING THAT THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
This could change of course, but right now, not very conducive to the clouds
breaking.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20130629&endTime=-1&duration=0
Sunny, hot, and humid in Quincy. Sun came out at 12N
Sun has been out here in Hingham since around 12:30…temp up to just a hair under 80. Let’s see if the atmosphere starts to cook.
Latest Discussion From SPC.
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NNEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY ON THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF A 50 KT WIND MAXIMUM AT 500 MB. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /I.E.
LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-15 G PER KG/ WHERE AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL-DERIVED
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES…INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING
WINDS…AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
Latest Discussion From NWS in Taunton. Could be a radar watching afternoon.
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND…PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
COUPLED WITH A RIGHT- REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
/DIFFLUENCE/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE MONITORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS
NEW BEDFORD AND FALL RIVER CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD IMPACTS.
GUSTY WINDS ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WINDS ALOFT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR…STRONG VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL ALOFT /SEE H5 TEMPERATURES/ WILL DEFINITELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING PROCEEDS. WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA/CT INTO SOUTHERN
NH WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN. THIS COULD BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DAY.
INSTABILITY ALREADY PROCEEDING…AND EVALUATING UPSTREAM UPPER-
AIR SOUNDINGS OVER ALBANY/BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH…ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE…CLEARING ACROSS PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW INSTABILITY VALUES OF MLCAPE TO GROW 1K-2K J/KG. AGREE WITH
SPC/S ASSESSMENT OF A SLIGHT RISK…0-6 KM UNI-DIRECTIONAL BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELLULAR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT…WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. CAN/T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH DECENT 0-1/0-3 KM
SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADO.
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AS SEEN WITH THE DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE /SPC MESOANALYSIS DOWN TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES/ BUT STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH STORMS. WILL BE WATCHING
FOR FLOODING CLOSELY AS MANY LOCALES HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
1322 Mesoscale Discussion from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1304.html
SUMMARY…SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA…MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC SVR
HAIL…THOUGH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.
DISCUSSION…SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT UNFOCUSED PATTERN
ATTM…WITH DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL ZONE DRIFTING EWD THROUGH HUDSON
VALLEY REGION TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND…EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW
LOCATED BETWEEN LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND MONTREAL. THERMAL GRADIENT OVER
WRN MAINE REPRESENTS DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE BEHIND EARLIER
ACTIVITY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SLOT OVER MOST OF ERN NY AND
NEW ENGLAND W OF MAINE…AND BEHIND CLOUD COVER RELATED TO
EARLIER/ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO WARM
INTO MID-UPPER 70S F AND LOW 80S BETWEEN CENTRAL NY CONVECTION AND
MAINE…ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATING MLCINH ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS FORMED FROM
CENTRAL NY ENEWD TO CENTRAL NH AND NERN VT…ALSO ON EITHER SIDE OF
FRONT.
OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR SVR E OF
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH FRONTAL
ZONE…THUS BOOSTING BUOYANCY FROM W-E. ADDITIONAL PRECONVECTIVE
INSOLATION SHOULD YIELD BROAD SWATH OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER
ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO NEAR LONGITUDE OF WRN MAINE
BORDER…EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO WRN MAINE. FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
WILL BE OVERLAPPED BY INCREASINGLY AND SEASONALLY STG DEEP SHEAR
WITH EWD EXTENT…BENEATH MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT IS SHIFTING NEWD
ACROSS REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT SHOULD REMAIN
COMMON FROM CT-NH AND WRN MAINE. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE…THOUGH WINDS SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT IN
LOWEST 2 KM OR SO WHILE INCREASING MARKEDLY ABOVE 1 KM. THIS YIELDS
SLIGHTLY LOOPED TO NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS…AS EVIDENT IN
VWP AND FCST SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR…AS WELL AS
ORGANIZED/MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS POSSIBLE.
CONFLUENCE LINE AND RELATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO ITS E MAY
REPRESENT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL GIVEN
ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINICITY AND BACKED FLOW WITH WHICH APCHG STORMS
WOULD INTERACT.
From SPC, Mesoscale discussion. 40% chance Severe Thunderstorm Watch:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1304.html
My guess, ain’t gonna happen!!!
😀
I think we’re in the clear for today and once again forecasts were a bust.
I’m seeing an awful lot of “Crying Wolf” going on around here.
Mother Nature is pretty tricky! 😀 😀
Tons of activity in our area, NOT! 😀
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
Actually, for the 2nd day in a row, a very nice day out there. 😀
Someone’s screwing with me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was just viewing the SPC risk map for today and all of a sudden
a TORNADO watch went up right where the mesoscale discussion
was!!!!!!!!!! Freaked me out. I refreshed the browser and look all around
and it was GONE!!!
AH HA!!!!!!!!
Mystery solved. I accidentally placed my mouse over the MD
tab on the main page and it popped up the mesoscale discussion area. It was outlined in RED as are the tornado watch areas.
That is all it was.
This is it:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
😀
Latest thinking from NWS in Taunton thinking severe weather threat maybe for northern New England.
Thanks Jimmy. I hope that verifies. 🙂
Yup,
I think We’re in the clear. We shall see. SPC freaked me out!!!! Or else, someone has hacked me and was screwing with me, but it would have to have been a weather geek. TK????????????????????? 😀 😀 😀
For the trivia question, I will go with C.
D is very tempting but B (dust and pollen) doesn’t make sense to me in this case. We will see later today.
As for the “Dog Days of August” type temps already in June and at least into early July, does this mean that August could have cooler temps more like September? If we can get the HHH over with, that would be ok with me.
All week it seems we have been in a slight risk zone and other than Monday when there were a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings these storms that have formed have produced more in the way of heavy rain. I had good downpour yesterday at 5pm.
From what I have seen in the forecasts so far, it is Monday to watch for widespread downpours.
Hey OS…It is good to see so many posts from you this spring and now into early summer. You are definitely in “mid-winter” form LOL. 😀
Just don’t disappear come hurricane season for August/September, but hopefully your “posts” will not be needed during that timeframe. After Irene and Sandy I am keeping my fingers crossed that the tropics will be unusually quiet for a change. It is probably wishful thinking on my part. 😉
Sun broke out here in the last couple of hours after a very foggy morning and early afternoon. Hope you are seeing the same inYork TK. Pretty breezy though.
Near Old Orchard Beach.
Have tons of fun North. Not bad weather here at all….humid but a great breeze
Thanks Vicki, I am not missing the humidity here along t water. It is actually chilly :). We will attempt the amusement park tonight with the kids if the fog doesn’t roll back in quickly.
How is life for you and Mac under the dome?
Mac enjoys under the dome…I’m loving the day as its a beauty but is one thunder storm too much to ask for 🙁
yup
Hehe.
Lol
Today seemed like a pleasant surprise weather-wise and it was a nice day at Rexhame Beach, but at least today, the ocean was ice cold !
I meant to look into the 65 and 70 deg Charlie mentioned. I’d be more than surprised if the ocean is at those temps……pleasantly surprised maybe but surprised nonetheless
This is a more realistic representation of current ocean temperatures at least off Boston and North Shore:
Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
(44029) 42.52N 70.57W
Last Updated: Jun 29 2013, 5:04 pm EST
Sat, 29 Jun 2013 17:04:00 -0500
Temperature: 67.6 °F (19.8 °C)
Wind: South at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
Visibility: 1.50 miles
MSL Pressure: 1002.1 mb
Water Temperature: 62.1 °F (16.7 °C)
Wave Height: 1.1 m (3.61 ft)
Dominant Period: 4 sec
Here’s a neat map and it has monthly means:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl_tmap.html
Ok, that makes sense. The water did not feel painful, but anything below 70F feels ice cold to me. I can believe it was a bit either side of 60F.
Thanks OS. Makes sense to me too
I love Rexhame…it’s our favorite beach!!
I think a lot of people gave up on a beach day with the clouds until noontime, but it turned out to be a very nice, fairly sunny afternoon.
It is a great beach ! No greenheads, yet 🙂
I’ve never really experienced them at Rexhame but then again we usually go in late July through early September when they seem to be gone.
Lots of memorys on rexhame. Grandparents lived on Gilbert down by the parking lot.
We love rexhames cousin :). Or is it sibling? Always amazes me that we can walk to it from Humarock faster than we can drive. To me the entire area is perfect. No cape traffic. Quiet…Charlie would hate it….and the way life was when it was, well, simple
The highlight of the day was a baby seal that had swam up to the shore and came onto the wet sand, during the incoming tide when the waves would occasionally wash over it.
Very, very cute, wish we had been carrying a camera. By the time we had walked back to our chairs, told our friends and then they walked down to that spot, the seal had taken off back into the water.
In winter, if you go to Brant Rock Village and take the road past the Fairview Inn all the way to the cirle at the campground, and you time low tide correctly, there often are a few seals lying on the rocks.
Wow. We would have loved that. We never saw seals years ago but see them now at least twice when we are there. Of course back in the day horseshoe crabs, sand dollars and starfish were a dime a dozen. How things change.
Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
What causes fog or mist to form?
A. High humidity (near 100%)
B. Dust and pollen
C. Air cooled to where it hits the dew point
D. All of the above
According to what I heard, the answer is D.
Yay. Thanks again
Weather was nice and sunny for the pool party.
The “wet” pattern, for most areas, continues to under-achieve. This may be a surprise to some outlets, but I’m not really sure why. Reading between the lines on these model runs and applying a little meteorology has been showing for days that we’d not be having too many wash-outs during this run.
Significant showers/storms? Yes, sometimes, and in some places they can persist. We saw a couple such bands set up mainly well west of the Boston area late in the week. Another batch of significant showers/storms may soak the region for some number of hours Sunday night into Monday, and perhaps again Monday night or very early Tuesday, but overall, we will continue to see more rain-free periods than rainy ones. And with the retrograding ridge that the NWS seems to be underestimating the impact of, we’ll see even less rain coverage as we reach late Tuesday through much of next week.
I’m about to re-issue the blog which is really just an update for time periods and a few tweaks to the forecast, with no real overall changes right through the extended period.
York Beach Maine was beautiful today. A BIT cool at times with the breeze partially off the water, but actually quite refreshing despite being on the humid side. It was warm in the sun, pleasant in the air, temperature-wise. Water of course is still chilly up along the Maine coast, but after being in it for a while it was tolerable. If my ankles are not hurting me, then it’s not that bad. 😛
Cookout on Sunday, and even though we may have some cloudiness and a shower threat, I think most of the activity again holds off. I have a few beach days planned next week and a day in Boston on July 4th. Looking forward to some great summer weather to enjoy. I think some will still be surprised at how nice it is the majority of the time, in terms of not raining.