The Week Ahead

126 Comments

9:36PM

The heatwave that impacted parts of the region from as early as Wednesday through Sunday is done, but the humid pattern is not going anywhere during the coming week. Though a weak trough will dominate, this trough sits between a ridge to the west and a rebuilding ridge in the western Atlantic, and with no real push of dry air available from Canada, the humidity level will remain rather high right through the next 7 days. It won’t be as hot because of the lack of ridging and limited sunshine through at least the end of the work week. By sometime next weekend, another retrogression or westward movement of high pressure from the Atlantic may heat the region up again. Some signs point to another potential heatwave resulting but not until sometime the following week. We’ll also be eyeing an early-season system in the tropics for development and eventual track.

In the mean time, the updated forecast for southeastern New England goes something like this…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog valley and swampy areas. Humid. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s, warmest in urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-85 except 70s South Coast. Wind S to SW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely early then diminishing. Patchy fog redeveloping. Muggy. Wind light SW to W.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Humid. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 81.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 88.

126 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK

    You said”Some signs point to another potential heatwave resulting but not until sometime the following week”. What following week. Please don’t tell me the 20th. Pahleeezzee

    1. The week of July 15 – not sure how long.

      This is out on a limb a bit but I would not be surprised at someone nearing or reaching 100 between July 15 and July 19.

    2. And seriously – an early season system in the tropics. We had to come home 2 of the last three years for tropical storms in August. Now we go in July and we may have the same. At least they could name the thing TS Vicki 😉

  6. Flash Flood Watch just issued for central and western MA. I think the Watch is for 11 am to midnight.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like no sign of cool and refreshing air for a long time. I don’t like this constant hhh but I would like to enjoy some of it and so far this summer has been very nerving for me. I found out this morning re: my husband – he was really sick during the night w/still a high fever but now he has stomach problems. They will be doing stomach tests on him today and they think it may be a severe case of his crohn’s disease, which I read can cause fever. Nothing is confirmed yet – but it makes me feel better to know that it could be his Crohn’s and they could give him a stronger medication for it.

    In any case – I hate complaining. I complain to my husband A LOT (not when he is sick) but to the rest of the world I don’t like to.

    All I can say is that I hope me and my husband are feeling well so if we can enjoy any hurricane we might get in the future! 🙂

    My mother is ok at this point – bad symptoms could start in a few mos., then, well… but right now – just she is just living life as normal as she can.

    1. rainshine. I feel as if we are all family here and I am glad you feel comfortable enough to come “talk” to us. I hope the doctors find a solution quickly and that it can be controlled with meds. And I’ll keep you in my thoughts and prayers as well as you are under tremendous pressure right now. Remember to take some time for just you – as impossible as that seems. Your husband and mom and very lucky to have someone who cares so much!

  8. Temp is at 77. If I’m not mistaken that is about the lowest I’ve seen at 9:00 am for a while. DP is still 72. Total cloud cover. I think this may give the AC’s a break as it’s more a question of keeping the humidity out than the combined heat and humidity. I hope. Also wonder if cloud cover will diminish threat of storms later – or perhaps cloud cover will be replaced by sun?

      1. JR said this morning that storms would be few at the coast and more likely to be inland. Do you see it that way as well?

        1. Oh and we had solid sunshine earlier but had just moved into the clouds when I posted. Have no idea how widespread the clouds are or how long they will last.

  9. Good morning all.

    Interesting day yesterday. We ended up with nothing but a brief shower and nothing
    more.

    I had to crack up at Joe Joyce last night indicating that the heat will be broken today.
    😀 😀 You know what I say to that? Bull S***!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    8AM obs at Boston: 82F dew point 70F.
    IF we get enough Sun AND we can stay away from a sea breeze, Boston WILL make
    another run at 90 today.

    re: Tropical Storm Chantel
    Pretty OMINOUS PATH, however, please note that in the Bahamas, it’s projected
    to be down to a Depression at that time. I know it was posted above, but here’s
    the path again:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313W5_NL_sm2+gif/115019W5_NL_sm.gif

  10. Re: Thunderstorms today

    SPC doesn’t even discuss our area in the Day 1 convective outlook, yet the
    Taunton NWS discussion indicates that it could get pretty active today with
    “possible” severe weather. This inconsistency drives me nuts! We’ll see what
    SPC has to say in future updates.

    My guess is that today will be At least as interesting as yesterday an perhaps more so.

  13. I would keep an eye to that sky this afternoon if outdoors. I would not rule out a strong to locally severe storm today across SNE. Its looks if any thunderstorms develop we would be looking at pulse type storms where you go from nothing to bang tracking a strong to possibly severe storm. I don’t see a widespread outbreak of severe weather.

  14. TK, I looked at your prediction for the summer from about two months ago and you went out on a limb to predict a very hot pattern. Spot on. You also forecast continued drought conditions. This has not happened, but of course could return.

    One of you posted that a weather person had wrongly predicted a “break” in the heat. I saw several forecasters literally say that this week will bring “relief.” Some relief. It really does not matter whether the temperature is 88 or 92, so long as the humidity is as thick as molasses it is going to feel oppressive. It is not my kind of weather, needless to say. And, one has to go very far north (north and east of Quebec City) to find drier, less oppressive air. As TK points out, that air ain’t coming south for a while. When was the last time we had a North or Northwest wind? I know we had the cold front last week, but that came in off the ocean (Northeast).

    Oh well, there are far worse things happening in the world than triple H weather.

  15. With the lows in the mid 60s and higher at night that is an indication of sticky airmass. Want to see those lows in the 50s during the summer nights since that is a dry comfortable airmass overhead.
    The stickormama continues for another week.

  17. Lawns are starting to get heat stress, heat stress is a little different than drought stress, I would like a little rain for the lawns 🙂

  18. Just out from the NWS office at Taunton:

    …WITH ALL OF THESE COMBINED AS WELL AS THE 2 BOUNDARIES BELIEVE IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS…HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO…BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING…BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 1-3 PM.

    One of those boundaries they discuss is a SEA BREEZE, expected momentarily in Boston. IF a storm were to develop or maintain intensity as it nears the coast,
    with East or Northeast winds at the coast and SW winds just inland, “Could” be
    enough low level shear to pop a tornado. These are all Big IFs, but the potential is there just the same. Should be interesting today.

  19. WOW!!!!

    Pretty impressive sea breeze at Boston. Hmmm SMELLS like a backdoor cold
    front to me????

    Here is the 11AM obs:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Last Updated: Jul 8 2013, 10:54 am EDT
    Mon, 08 Jul 2013 10:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 77.0 °F (25.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 69.1 °F (20.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 77 %
    Wind: Northeast at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
    Visibility: 9.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1014.2 mb
    Altimeter: 29.95 in Hg

    1. Now, that REALLY is a break from the HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Very NICE indeed.

      Going out for awhile. will see how it feels here. 😀

        1. Can’t help you. I’m full of HOT air, so blowing in your direction won’t help. 😀

  21. Ok, I’m back in the office.

    83 at home and here at the office. Extremely sticky out.
    Towering cumulus abound. Looking at the sky, it appears a thunderstorm
    is about to break out at any moment. Very threatening looking and oppressive.
    Even if nothing is showing in the immediate area at the moment. Some storms
    brewing just to the North of the city. 😀

    1. I’m reading more of the attachment and it is clear that, while it does give me a basic idea, I need to be with someone to help interpret some of the graphics. When it says to note the leaning tower, I have no idea what it is that indicates a leaning tower on the radar. Also, in one it indicates rotation is present but I’m not sure how that is shown. Every time OS says he sees rotating in a cell, I try to look to see what he’s seeing but no such luck.

  24. Vickie,

    Let me see what I can do here.

    Please look at this link:

    http://i.imgur.com/DtAMEqW.jpg

    It shows the echos with radial velocities of an F3 on the ground.
    I have CIRCLED the area of interest.

    Please note the red, indicating echos of 30-40 DBZ in one direction AND
    echoes of -30 to -40 DBZ in the opposite direction. This indicates strong rotation
    and it is within this area where the tornado would be located.

    So when I say I see rotation, this is exactly what I mean.
    Note: Seeing the rotation does NOT necessarily mean there is a tornado, BUT
    if there is a tornado, that rotation WILL be there, thus the reason for warnings
    when seen.

    Hope this helps.
    😀

    BTW, GREAT link Vickie. Thank you.

    1. I think I get it – this is GREAT OS Thanks

      So, to put it in my simplified language to make sure I understand, to the left of the red is the lighter green indicating the -30 to -40 DBZ echos and the two extremes can create the rotating by “pulling” on each other?

      At about 2:00 on the graphic there is also a deeper red but it would not indicate rotating because there is no negative in the same area???

      And would the rotating always be at the outside of the cell??

      I hope you don’t mind all of the questions. I’ve bookmarked the link you provided and am going to copy the corresponding explanation and put it in my weather folder. Thank you again.

      1. Vicki,

        Not quite.

        What we are seeing are the 2 extremes because that is where
        it is most noticable. You have to remember that with a rotating
        updraft whether there is a tornado or not, the radar is showing
        the echos from rainfall/hail/debris or whatever is blowing around. If there is a tornado, it is spinning around in a circle.
        So if you picture a radar beam aimed at this rotation (actually what will be seen is the rotatation above the ground), on one extreme, it will pick up echos moving away from the radar and on the other extreme, echos moving towards the radar. That is
        why we look at the dbz for + and – in a confined area. The echos
        are not tugging and pulling at each other. The echoes represent
        the spinning (rotation) of the storm due to whatever particles
        represent the echo.

        I don’t know if I explained it better or made it worse for you?
        Sorry, I tried.
        😀

        1. It made it better because that’s what I was thinking but my thought process wasn’t translating to my keyboard as I didn’t know how to put it together.

          Thank you as always for the great help!

    1. btw,

      It is Looking like this newly established marine layer is KILLING any
      potential storm development. 😀

    2. wow – but it looks as if we should be feeling it here and it’s still oppresive humidity here 🙁

      1. Very shallow boundary and only a slight dewpoint drop behind it. It’s basically starting to wash out over interior eastern MA since the leading edge had to pass over already-heated land.

        1. Yup,

          Just spoke to my wife and she says it’s brutal in JP.
          The breeze that was there at lunch time has vanished already. Temperature there in the mid 80’s while 5 or 6 miles away at the airport its 73. 😀 😀

  27. Did OS say a back-door cold front is moving in? Figures it would happen while I’m sitting indoors at my office. Will the front stick around long enough to make it feel less sticky late this afternoon and early evening. That would be a blessing.

  28. So far in Eastern sections it is holding strong. Don’t know where you are located.
    Check link and you can see Where the front is. 😀

    1. Need proof?

      Here is Boston’s Logan Airport 3Pm Observation:

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Last Updated: Jul 8 2013, 2:54 pm EDT
      Mon, 08 Jul 2013 14:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Mostly Cloudy
      Temperature: 73.0 °F (22.8 °C)
      Dewpoint: 66.9 °F (19.4 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 81 %
      Wind: East at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
      Visibility: 8.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1015.2 mb
      Altimeter: 29.98 in Hg

      Note: dew point has dropped from 72 to 66. We’ll take anything at this point. 😀

  30. What’s going on with this Horten guy? All he’s doing is bashing our city, on his tour of the city he said Columbus is where he wants to be, also he said he’s been waiting for yrs to buy a house and he said there r no houses to buy in Boston lol, who is this guy?

    2. Then the mayor of Columbus says they r a up and coming city of 800,000 residents and have more to offer and sagen agreed, what a dirtbag

      1. Hmmm, i dont see how anyone can say a city in Ohio is “up and coming.” No offense to Ohio im sure there are some nice areas. Nathan Horton was the guy who went to Columbus, mostly bc he wanted to blend in and not have to deal with the media or high expectations of competing for a cup. He can now just skate around every night and earn his millions and never win anything. Instead of staying in a place where everybody knows his name, he would rather go where no one knows his name…

        1. I know someone who travels to a few cities in Ohio on business regularly. It’s far from up and coming. They are going in the wrong direction there… The Midwest is hurting.

    1. The NWS again over-forecast these, wording this afternoon’s storms as “numerous”. Let’s try isolated (for now anyway).

  32. The “back-door front” is actually a “back-door outflow boundary”, created by thunderstorms that crossed Maine early this morning. The outflow then came across the Atlantic waters and entered southeastern New England. The line you see on the radar is likely a conglomeration of dust, insects, and other particles. There is lift over this boundary but so far we haven’t popped that many showers/storms. A cluster seems to maintain itself in south central NH and I would expect something to fire not far from Taunton in the next couple hours. A few showers that drifted across eastern MA (one got my area in Woburn but missed Reading where I was at the time) are now history. Near 90 around Taunton (“The Pit”), lower 70s at the beaches from the South Shore to NH Seacoast.

    1. So it’s raining dust and insects and not cats and dogs?? And I for one am ok with a downpour of insects not reaching my area. Ewwww

      And do I understand in addition to not enjoying the cooler temps (bugs or no) that we also don’t even get a storm? Sighhh

      And thanks TK 😀

      1. Irony: I’m listening to the CD “Mighty Like A Rose” by Elvis Costello and the 2nd track on it is called “Hurry Down Doomsday (The Bugs Are Taking Over)”.

  33. OS – I didn’t see if you answered. One last question. Would the rotation always be at the edges of the cell? Or can it be anywhere in the cell. And is it the echos moving toward and away that form the hook echo? Sorry that was really two questions 😉

    1. “Usually” on the SW corner of the cell. This is where the typical “Hook” echo would be located. BUT that does NOT mean it can’t occur elsewhere, but
      this is the typical location. I’m sure TK will add more. 😀

      It can get confusing as to where to locate it within LINES of storms.

      1. Now when you see rotation in a cell, I will at least be able to look to see if I can tell what you are seeing. That being said, I sure hope it doesn’t happen often if at all.

        Thanks again. I am feeling quite excited to have learned something new today!

        1. Oh Vicki, use the underground nexrad radar site.
          http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp

          Then you want to ZOOM (Place your mouse NW of the Desired cell and left click while you sort of draw a box around it. The radar will then zoom into that area you outlined with your mouse.)

          Then select radar type and Type: <b<Base Radial Velocity 0.50° ElevationRange

          That should do it. 😀

      2. Vicki,

        One more thing. That link I gave you. That is NOT to a weather site. It is Imgur.com where I uploaded a graphic, which was a page from the link you gave. I loaded it into paint and drew that circle, refiled it and uploaded it to imgur and provided you with the link.
        So, I’m not sure how long that link would be there. 😀

        1. I went to the site as I found it interesting and I did print a copy and color coded the areas you mentioned as I questioned how long it would be there as well. Thanks for warning me 🙂

    1. I literally burst out laughing. Wayyyy too funny. I can’t wait until mac gets home. I hope that’ll be there for a while. I need to send it to the kids. I LOVE IT

  35. The system over Manchester NH has been there a while. Is the back door thing keeping it from moving east?

  37. For anyone who wants psychological relief from the heat or just plain likes Christmas in July, hallmark channel is having Xmas movies starting at 8 every night this week

    1. I remember those “Christmas in July” sales in Filene’s Basement. Those were the days that will never return unfortunately. 🙂

  38. I was just outside and the sea breeze here in Dorchester feels might nice…aaaaaahhh! 😀

    TK – Any chance the sea breeze can last all night? Or is that wishful thinking? 🙂

    1. Not a classic sea breeze, but an ocean wind. Yes it can, but it will probably just drop off to light variable.

  39. Glad to see some relief came in from the ocean. Here in Cape Breton at 46 degrees north latitude, we saw the high and mid level clouds to our south, clear on the northern horizon and at the surface, a northerly wind, high temps in the 60s and low dew points. Refreshing !! We’re expecting a rainy day mid week when the warmth and humidity try to return. Some weak wifi at the campground, but good enough to post occasionally. 🙂

  46. That cell has been sitting over Franklin since I mentioned the loud thunder to our south. Wonder how much rain with it

  47. Thanks TK! It was nice to have a little break from the super hot temps today with the ocean breeze this late evening!

    1. We really should thank Tom and Nova Scotia! 😀

      AFAIC keep it coming down here the rest of the summer. 🙂

        1. Ill have to see how much Uxbridge got. The thunder we heard in Franklin was so loud here I was sure it was in south Framingham.

  49. I asked daughter in Uxbridge if they had a storm. This is her reply

    “Yea lots of thunder for a while then lots of rain then the monsoon came!”

    Guess it rained a tad

  50. Quite foggy here in Plymouth. I am sitting at Jordan Hospital awaiting my husband to come out of surgery. He fell at work today and broke his ankle in 3 places. He will be the proud owner of some screws and plates when gets done. Not a fun start to the week!

    3. Darn Sue I’m sorry to hear that. And it sure isn’t the way to start a week. Best wishes for a quick and full recovery

  51. I guess the dp and temps must be about equal cause I am seeing a little fog this am. It seems a little misty and the deck is wet. Looks like more humidity tomorrow and possible T-storms?

    On a another note, Chantal is picking up a little wind speed. Probably travelling a little to fast to become a hurricane. The forecasted track.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents

    Final note, you can now buy a $50 lobster roll in the North End. My daughter tells me it’s called the USS Lobstitution.

    Off to my daily walk. Have a good day all.

    2. Is the roll made of gold? $50??? Whew – and have a good walk. I don’t know how you do it in this humidity.

          1. Finished basement room gets the final touches today. Heat goes back in and carpet gets tacked back down! Finally after the drainage install after the flooding!

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