Unsettled Weather May Last Into Weekend

117 Comments

11:48PM

If you regularly look at the computer models, you’ll know right away which one I am leaning toward. With a warm front moving through the region today, a cold front sliding into the region then slowing down just offshore Thursday and Friday, and a probable cut off low pressure area forming over the region early in the weekend, it looks like an unsettled time continuing for southeastern New England during the next several days. Optimistically, better weather should be expected by late in the weekend or more likely early next week as a ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic starts to build westward into the Northeast, much like what happened last week, resulting in the heat. Before that, expect several period of showers and thunderstorms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog Cape Cod, Islands, southeastern and east coastal MA. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with patchy rain moving south to north across the region. Variably cloudy afternoon with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible interior MA and south central NH. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind SE shifting to S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from west to east but weakening as they cross the region. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast, warmest interior MA and NH. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning becoming less numerous in the afternoon. Low 66. High 74.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 62. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 82.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 65. High 88.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 68. High 92.

117 thoughts on “Unsettled Weather May Last Into Weekend”

  1. TK, I see you do have a little less rain in here for the near-term than I might have expected. Just about to listen to BB to see what he has to say.

    1. BB forecast is about the same as yours. He did mention that Chantal might be falling apart.

  2. Interestingly there have been a couple of studies lately about hurricanes during this current century, both saying that hurricane intensity is likely to increase. However, as often happens there are varying opinions and in this case, it is about the forecasted frequency of hurricanes. The article below is pretty short but explains
    what these studies say.

    http://science.time.com/2013/07/09/a-new-study-says-hurricanes-will-get-stronger-and-more-frequent-thanks-to-climate-change/?hpt=hp_t3

    I have read a little about hurricanes and there always seems to be a disagreement about forecated frequency and intensity. Most of it having to do with climate change.

  3. Now the first line of my blog looks dumb because the 00z Euro came around to the GFS’s better handle of the pattern. 😉

  4. Hey TK. Taking the kids up to Story Land in Glen, NH and to Santas Village in Jefferson, NH this weekend. Do you think we get into any sunshine despite the nearby stalled front? Thanks!

    1. What a great weekend. Although we oddly never went to story land as kids, santas village has seen four generations of my family. Have tons of fun.

    2. Arod, I will be at Story Land parts of Thursday and Friday. We are heading up Mount Washington on the Cog Saturday Morning.

      Look for the handsome red head. 🙂

      1. I won’t be there until Saturday and staying till Tuesday. We’ll just be missing each other.

  6. Thanks TK.
    While there is the threat of thunderstorms today it will be nothing like it was 24 years ago today when several tornadoes struck parts of the northeast. I remember that day well. I was 5 years old and one of those tornadoes affected my hometown in CT. It took out a tree in the front yard but thankfully didn’t damage the house. My mom and I were in my bedroom where we rod the storm out. The worst of the outbreak was an F 4 tornado that hit Hamden, CT.
    Other tornadoes touched down that day in NY, MA, and NJ. Hopefully an outbreak like that will not happen here again.

    1. Terrifying. And amazing how it stays in your memory even when you are just five. I don’t recall the storms but wonder if we had severe tstorms even here as the timeframe would be right for some of the worst storms I remember ever having.

    1. Hi JJ – thank you.

      I don’t remember that event at all. It must have been terrifying for a five year old – let alone your mom. I am always amazed how an event like that which would normally instill fear of weather events in a youngster actually creates an interest.

  8. Radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree out there.

    Main threat is Heavy rain, however, the NWS did indicate
    THERE IS STILL SOME TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LATEST
    SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE HELICITY SO A QUICK SPIN UP IS
    NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

    Looks like a VERY interesting afternoon. Hold on!

  10. The more Southern storms are WEAKENING as they move Eastward and are subjected
    to the Marine air being transported Northward on SOUTHERLY winds!

    I’m wondering if nothing but left over showers or even sprinkles for East Coastal
    MA???? 😀 😀 😀

      1. But then again, that storm in the middle of Connecticut is
        intensifying. Perhaps still far enough away from the marine
        influence.

        Regardless, we’ll keep watching. 😀

  13. Sorry to see the 70F + dewpoints have returned …….

    Day 6, not a rain drop, day 4 in Cape Breton, not a rain drop, which has me thinking 12 straight days of drizzle and fog are due.

    We have been fortunate to experience 3 days of Don Kent’s summer polar air. However, I think thats about to end, as there’s a pretty steady SSE wind and some mid and lower clouds are showing up.

    The 9pm sunsets and everlasting twilight until 10pm are still something we’re trying to adjust to. When we try to guess the time, we’re always 45 minutes too early.

    Enjoy those storms moving in from the west !

    1. Here we go again. How real is that? I mean I see the warning, but looking
      at the storm?????????

      We shall see.

  17. Are these tornado warnings around the cell arod said we needed to watch

    Thunder to our north a bit ago. Am hearing some in the distance again

    1. It was the cell just to the northeast of the cell I said we needed to watch. The energy broke off from that cell however.

  19. I’m thinking that 100 mile wide swath of rain and embedded tstorms rapidly moving east out of central NY will weaken as they head east, if anybody gets effected it should be south and west of Boston IMO 🙂

  20. Nice gentle rain here

    I would like to dub this the summer of muggy

    Im trying to remember our last top 10 day and suspect it wasn’t as long ago as I think. Maybe mid June?

    1. Sure looks like one. I was watching the radar earlier and thinking CT has had far more than its share this summer

    1. And there were 4 this week….or did I read that wrong.

      And I can’t believe neither mac nor I got the final jeopardy question

      1. Hi Vicki…. We had three tornado touchdowns last Monday in CT. There were two EF0 tornadoes and one EF1. Thankfully
        there were no injuries or fatalities. Now will wait to see what the NWS out of Taunton says when they investigate with
        this potential tornado touchdown.

          1. Hopefully this is it this year. The threat for tornadoes today was very low here. Looking at the pictures
            there definetly was a funnel cloud and if that funnel touched the ground it then becomes a tornado.

  23. Anniversary tornado in CT (for the July 10 1989 outbreak that JJ mentioned earlier).

    I remember that day well. I opted to stay local in case anything happened up here. Chased dying storms from Lowell to near my hometown.

    My chase partner headed down into CT and saw the big stuff (t-storms) but barely missed seeing and possibly being involved in the tornado near New Haven.

      1. It was a Monday, and I could not get away from the song Buffalo Stance by Neneh Cherry on the radio. 😉

  24. TK in all the severe weather outbreaks you have seen in your life here in the northeast where would you rank the 1989 northeastern tornado outbreak? I hope we never see anything like that again.

    1. It’s in the top 5, maybe the top 3.

      There were only 2 notable tornadoes on June 9 1953 but because of the scope of the Worcester Tornado that probably ranks as #1.

      Another impressive outbreak was the August 6-8 1986, mainly because we don’t usually have nearly perfect tornado conditions for 3 consecutive days. We haven’t come close to that since.

      1. Ok now that one I have an excuse not to remember that outbreak. But am surprised I do not. My youngest was born 8-6-86. I’ve decided I have forgotten some because my kids were little and I had other focuses and then more around the mid 90s when I lost my brother and didnt want to think about the storms he and I would always want to call each other about. Funny how the mind works.

  25. Tk from looking at the models it looks like tomorrow could be stormy, would you concur? And it looks like a couple of lines of storms, do you concur? Thanks in advance 🙂

    1. I think we may have a potent line somewhere in the area between 10AM and noon. What comes later will depend on 1) the frontal position, and 2) how much the atmosphere stabilizes behind potential line #1.

  26. Hello all, it’s been awhile since I posted. Hope all is well! Another wild day of weather here in CT. The last thing I expected when I woke up this morning was that a tornado would hit my town. Did not see the severe weather threat coming today, let alone a tornado. The link below has an impressive video of the tornado forming and touching down here in Coventry. Fortunately, there was no one injured, just some trees down and a barn destroyed. The tornado occurred on the south side of town – I live on the north side about 3 miles away. Not even a branch down in my yard.

    http://www.wfsb.com/story/22808485/damage-reported-after-tornado-warnings-issued

    1. Mark,

      Thank you. Nice to hear from you.

      A NWS team will be investigating today. Sure looks like it was a tornado.
      Most likely the investigation will confirm. Based on damage, looks to be an EF0,
      although an EF1 can’t be ruled out. 😀

  27. The Longshot Weather Quiz (No, this is not from Accuwaether)

    What is the highest temperature (farenhite) ever recorded?

    A. 114
    B. 124
    C. 134
    D. 144

    Extra “points” for for guessing where this temperature was recorded. Answer later today.

  28. I have some issues with the accuracy of where the temp was. It used to be in Libya at 137 degrees but now I hear its Death Valley at 134. The claim is the Libyans did not measure accurately but in 1913 at Death Valley it was measured accurately? I stand by the Libyan temp being just as accurate as a temp taken in 1913.

    1. Well I was going to say Death Valley before I saw your comment although for no other reason that it popped into my mind. I didn’t know the temp and suspect I would have guessed 144. So I’ll go with those two as it is what I would have said.

  29. Looks as if CT is getting it again this morning. Is this typical – the storms tracks through CT – not the tornadoes

    1. It happens there because of additional surface boundaries caused by temp and dewpoint variations with winds from Long Island Sound etc.

      1. Thanks, TK. So this is not an atypical pattern for CT – other than the tornadoes I mean which seem to be out of the ordinary

    1. First day in a long while I can remember is simply a rainy day. Of course Mac is convinced it’s because it’s golf league day. Hopefully it’ll end by late afternoon or he plays wet 🙂

  31. Ho Hum, another Summer Day in New England.
    First line of elevated convection is just about to clear the coast.
    LOADS of cloudiness to the West. In fact, it appears to be a solid deck.
    UNLESS that breaks up and allows ample sunshine, I don’t see us getting
    much in the way of Thunderstorms later this PM.

    We shall see. Will keep watching. 😀

    1. That cloud deck stays with us for the next couple of days although I feel it will fall apart providing is with more of an optimistic forecast for tomorrow/Sat. than currently advertised. I agree, cloud debris should hold off any strong T-storm development except in places where sun can occasionally break through.

      1. I think Saturday will be the pick of the weekend. However, stalled fronts can get tricky. Let’s hope there is just enough push to get
        the clouds out of here. 😀

  34. I was about to post that I didn’t think that there would be any more convection today.
    But, surprise, it looks like something is beginning to percolate:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Peeks of Sun here. Temp 80-81. 😀

    1. Can see the clouds building to my northwest from that cell. Breaks of blue on and off here but more clouds than not.

  35. Hopefully no severe weather. We had a severe thunderstorm warning early this morning for parts of Fairfield and New Haven Counties and the tornado warnings yesterday in Tolland and Windham Counties. I think when all is set and done the NWS out of Taunton will find a tornado did touchdown yesterday.

  36. JJ, no question it was a tornado from all the pictures and video footage I have seen. WFSB has lots of good pictures and videos on their home page:
    http://www.wfsb.com/

    I am going to do a drive by down Rte 31 and back up South Street tonight after I pick up the kids from daycare (which is about a mile north of where the tornado tracked). It appears the tornado was on the ground as it crossed both South St and Rte 31, then dissipated before it crossed Rte 32. My guess is it was on the ground for at least a half mile. Will be interested to see the report from the NWS.

  38. Front getting hung up on the coast keeping in the clouds and unsettled weather. But, at least it looks like it cleared the North Conway area just in time for our retreat with the kids to Story Land! 😀

  39. From the NWS office at Taunton just a bit ago:

    THE SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE STEEPER THAN IN RECENT DAYS AND THERE IS BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THEREFORE…A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE…0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE ALMOST NIL AND DEFINITELY MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE RISK FOR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO TODAY APPEARS LOWER. HOWEVER…GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.– End Changed Discussion —

    Um, really?? Strong to Severe? Looks to me like the little bit of activity is waning
    already. The NWS can’t seem to get it right.

    Perhaps we’ll be fooled as the front approaches the Coast? I wouldn’t count on it. 😀

  40. Was there a tornado warning in MA around the southbridge area yesterday? I didn’t see one but a friend who lives there said they were under one.

    1. I “think” it was the same warning as in Ct, only downstream.
      They put the warning out for something like 20 or 30 miles.

      1. I wondered that although I don’t remember seeing that warning cross into MA. I would have called my daughter if I had. And then there is the possibility (likely) that I just didn’t notice it crossed into MA

        1. Vicki – I got a text from WBZ yesterday that there was a tornado warning for Worcester County until 5:30 pm.

          1. Oh boy – thanks Sue. I don’t know why I didn’t get one. Will have to check my warning setup.

  42. Vicki,

    I was just going to post that a Storm was VERY near you.
    It has been PULSING like crazy. It was somewhat intense, waned, intensyfied, then waned and all of a sudden exploded again.

    How’s the lightening and thunder? Wind? 😀

    1. Its directly over us. No lightening I can see or thunder I can hear but rain is amazing. Nearly .5 inch so far and very loud. Sky is that eerie gray/yellow and trees are absolutely still

        1. Thanks. GREAT to know. I stood in door for a while thinking rain was too loud so I couldn’t hear thunder but nothing. Darn 🙁

          1. You know why? According to the Weather Underground Nexrad Radar, the cloud tops on
            that Rain event you are experiencing is ONLY
            4,000 feet. WOW! That seems odd, but that’s what it indicated. Just a little ole tropical downpour. 😀

            1. Returns at 50 dBZ
              Tops at4,000 ft.
              Vil at 3 kg/m² (Vertically integrated liquid is an estimate of the total mass of precipitation in the clouds)
              0% chance hail
              Moving at 2 knots from WNW (285)

              Re: Vil From what I can see, that number is Higher, the higher the cloud tops are. So another indication of how LOW the tops are.

            2. More than interesting. And darn. We finally get our very own cell and it has no t&l. Sighhh.

              1. Clouds tops increased to 11,000 feet. Getting in the range for lightening. Any yet? Still not moving much. Did you get an inch of rain already?

    1. Thanks JJ. There wasn’t much doubt looking at the awesome photos.
      Hard to miss these days with all of the cell phones with built cameras.

      Connecticut sure has been catching the tornadoes!

    2. Too many this year. As I watched the cell that just approached here I felt nervous and I’m never nervous with Tstorms. Once OS said no rotation I could just enjoy but – and I’m repeating – I don’t know how people live in tornado prone areas.

  44. That storm now seems to be stretching Eastward.
    I WONDER IF it will catch my area with it’s Northern and Eastern
    edge?

    Watching. Tops up to 14,000 feet.

    1. It’s still sitting over south framingham near sherborn. Amazing. Wonder how captain is speaking of sherborn and how rainshines husband is also

      Figures there will be thunder after it passes us. Our neighbors back yard slopes a bit to their house but I haven’t seen it flood in the 34 yrs we’ve been here. It has about a 4-5 inch puddle against house on their patio and stretching out several feet

  45. That cell in Metro West has been drifting southward along the intersection of 2 outflow boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. Sustained for at least 3 hours now with a few pulses. That stuff should die out not long from now. We’ll see what the broken line in southern NH does. Probably impacts the Merrimack Valley with a few downpours and maybe a little thunder.

    Updating blow now…

  46. Front seems to breaking apart. Forecast will be more optimistic for tomorrow than currently advertised.

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