Cooler Friday, Weekend Optimism, Heatwave Next Week

150 Comments

5:41PM

A cold front is lazily drifting across southeastern New England and won’t even clear Cape Cod before stalling and washing out during the next couple days. The lingering boundary will help initiate some shower activity, but the best chance for this will be Friday as a disturbance also crosses the region. Activity should diminish though is still possible during the weekend.

A repeat of the retrograding ridge pattern (high pressure moving westward from the western Atlantic) will bring a return to hot weather for much of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

THIS EVENING (THROUGH SUNSET): Filtered sunshine most areas, but some heavier clouds and isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms (especially Metro West and Merrimack Valley). Temperatures ranging from near 70 coast to near 80 inland, but cooler in areas that showers occur. Wind S to SW in eastern areas, NW to N further to the west, 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH except variable in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers, especially late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny, except more sun possible north and west of Boston in the afternoon. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring areas from the Mass Pike southward. Highs middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially south of Boston. Highs in the 80s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Lows 65-75. Highs 85-95, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod.

150 thoughts on “Cooler Friday, Weekend Optimism, Heatwave Next Week”

    1. Forgot. It is cooler here. 75.5. Of course we have a dP of 75 as well. Lovely weather we are having. Did I say that already ?

  3. Thanks TK – Any thoughts as to when the “retrograding” pattern will break down once and for all? Up until now I always thought that retrograding only occurs in the winter and spring months with offshore ocean storms…not Bermuda highs.

    UGH! 🙁

    1. This is what summer is all about–HHH weather. I love that Bermuda High. I hope it’s here to stay but I know it can’t stay forever 😀 😀 😀

      1. I do not remember a summer with extended dps in the lower to mid 70s. Maybe I block them out. Its to the point where it I can’t even sit on the porch any more. Lovely weather we are having !!

        1. You’re blocking. We’ve had many summers much more brutal than this one is so far. 🙂

          1980, 1983, 1988, and various others. 🙂

          1. Now you went and did it 😉 You reminded me – and now I have to share memories 😆

            I should have said I don’t remember the majority of summers have these extended DPs. I remember the ones you mentioned well as they have fond memories. 1980 mid July birth of my first, 1983 first trimester with my second (need I say more about heat) and 1988 my husband sitting in the kiddie pool in our yard. We didn’t have AC until about 10 years ago. That would seem to be a bit more than 30% of the time. On average I do think this could be considered a hot and even moreso humid summer.

      1. I love the word as well…as long as it involves a big ocean storm just offshore in January or February. 😀

        1. Hehe. We think alike

          And hi Emily. I’m glad to hear you are enjoying the weather. My family is as well.

  6. Thanks TK! 🙂

    I absolutely love when it is humid and drizzling. It reminds me of vacations in Florida when I was younger.

    Hope everyone is enjoying the warmth 🙂

  7. Headed up to Maine this afternoon and halfway up the forecasts went from showers on fri and sat to partly sunny! Something change?
    Tom

    2. More optimistic outlook mainly because upper level low pressure will not be as strong nor will it hang around that long before getting pushed westward by the retrograding ridge. Still not a perfect weekend everywhere but not bad either. 🙂

    1. Same here, well …. after one day of high humidity. About 2 hrs of very heavy rain pre-dawn (2-4 am). Its an interesting sound of the heavy rain hitting the material on the soft sides of the camper.

      See another heatwave on the way for New England. Environment Canada is showing 30-31C (85-87F) this Sunday and Monday up this way, with cooling to follow. The folks up here consider about 25C (77F) as very warm to even hot.

      1. Smart folks up in that area 😉

        Are you having a great time, Tom! It’s fun to hear from you.

  10. How do you spell RELIEF?

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Last Updated: Jul 12 2013, 7:54 am EDT
    Fri, 12 Jul 2013 07:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 71.0 °F (21.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 59.0 °F (15.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 66 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 19.6 gusting to 25.3 MPH (17 gusting to 22 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1017.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.06 in Hg

    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

    2. Absolutely hysterical. We posted the same thing (less data for me but key points) and same reaction at the very same time!!

  12. Yes its surely a difference but this next heatwave may be worse than the one we just had and maybe longer as well.

  13. TK – too early to tell what is in store for last 2 weeks of July? Not specific of course, just general – as in maybe snow??

  15. I can do without another heatwave. I guess I should be thankful that I am not the one in a cast from toe to knee. However, someone has to do all of the work around here!

  17. Still looks Ominous.

    Rain, Rain go away. Come back another day. Like next Winter in the form of
    SNOW!!! 😀

    Have a great weekend all. 😀

    1. You do the same Oldsalty. My wife was driving home from Winthrop lastnight and said it was pouring rain around 9pm. Once she got down this way nothing not even a drop.

  19. I must apologize for not gettinng back to everyone with the answer to the Longshot Weather Quiz .

    What is the highest temperature (farenhite) ever recorded?

    A. 114
    B. 124
    C. 134
    D. 144

    The correct “official” answer is 134 in Death valley, but it has often been a controversial subject as pointedot by Hadi. my father was briefly working in Iran some 50 years ago and claims that it was above 134 in his days there. But right now 134 F is the record.

    1. Thanks Longshot. And never worry about how long it takes to post the answer. We are always here …. A captive audience if you will and I for one love the quizzes.

  20. I have a question for south shore residents. My son in law has decided to design a tee shirt to market in the SS area. He wants the wording to be Irish Riviera. With a graphic. I’d never heard of SS referred to as that although I know it can be. We all think he’s selling to a limited base. He says he thinks many younger folk would like the idea. Do you mind my asking your thoughts?? I feel as if we are spread out age-wise here Thanks

    1. Vicki…very interesting. Part of me wants to say that there is no chance in it being successful but the other part says with the right design it may just catch on. I have to say that the term is very rarely used around here but a tee shirt may just revitalize it.

      1. Wow. Great feedback. Thanks Sue. The problem is the right design. I know he’ll appreciate your input. 🙂

    2. They do use that saying, I have heard it. Mostly because a lot of folks down here grew up in Dorchester. What does he havto loose. He should go for it. I would definitely tell him to include a shamrock on the shirts.

        2. Vicki..as John says it’s a term that has been used on the SS. Not as much as it used to be. Back in the 60s and 70s it was common. If the T shirt had a nice and classy look to it I think it could work.

  21. Why does the commuter rail shut down at midnight? I have friends coming in late tomorrow night around 11:18pm on late night flight from Chicago and I’m concerned he won’t be able to get to south station from Logan by 11:55pm. Any ideas other than driving in?

    1. Charlie – are you sitting down – on this you and I totally agree. It also starts far too late in the morning

      3. It’s about ridership. I live on the Greenbush line. Except for rush hour the trains are nearly empty. Ridership was so bad on weekends that they discontinued service on Saturdays and Sundays over a year ago.

        1. The other option rather driving in all the way is to pick them up in Braintree (they could take the Silver Line to the Red Line..providing that they get their bags quick, etc and can make the Red Line train…about 12:25 or so from South Station). Or they could take the Logan Express at 12:00 or 12:15 from Logan to Braintree.

        2. I thought I read 2011-12 was a record ridership ever in commuter rail history,,, until the just recent hike in cost and latest projections show a decrease of 2%, 1st time in a while its decreased. In such a train oriented area you would think they would be open every min of everyday bc not all of us are on the same schedule, my friends think there just gonna hop on a train and meet in Mansfield and he’s gonna be like what the hek, it’s closed ugh!! Thanks for the input, it’s just frustrating 😉

          1. For whatever reason the Greenbush line has had mixed results. Perhaps there are too many other options in this area. On the southern end of the line people could opt for the Kingston line. On the northern end there is the P&B Bus line (stop in Rockland) and the Red Line (Braintree, Weymouth). Plus the commuter boats from Hingham.

            1. Keith the problem my son had trying to move from Boston is that nothing gets to south sstation earlier than 6:30 and from there he’d need another line to get to work and he has to be there by 6:15-6:30. This even from the bedroom communities. I think the first train goes through Belmont around 6:25

              1. Yeah that is kind of crazy. Some lines get in around 6:15 but most around 6:30. It would be interesting to see what the times were like on some of these lines back in 1940s when rail travel was at its peak.

  22. Just got back from an afternoon and evening in Maine. It was sunny and the air was refreshing and dare I say I was chilly in the shade!

  23. Hi Everyone! Hope you’re all enjoying your summer so far. Figured I’d pop in to say hi.

    My lawn should be burned about now but have widespread mushrooms populating peeking through. I wonder if you can smoke, I mean, eat them. 🙂

    I also have to report that it hasn’t snowed out here in the Worcester Hills in a while – B.L. too warm.

    If you guys end up planning a get together anytime this summer, have Hadi shoot me a note through Facebook or Linkedin. Tk has me on Facebook too.

  24. Charlie, I just read your commuter rail post. The only choices at that hour are 1) silver line to red line, both of which run after midnight to about 12:30 AM or 2) Logan Express which I think runs until 12:15 AM.

    1. Thanks for your input, that’s my exact point why arnt these commuter rail trains running all the time, idk

  25. I think we are looking at a weekend which will get hotter and more humid with each passing hour. And tough to see the daytime merc dropping below 90 in Beantown this coming week.

    1. There may be a seabreeze that may or may not give Boston an official heatwave. Harvey talked about this lastnight. But it is a very hot stretch that Will be here by Monday morning.

  26. Good Saturday morning. Yawn, yawn, yawn…………….

    Looking at 850mb temperature maps from Euro and GFS, indicate 850mb temperatures in the 18-20C range for about 6-7 days starting Monday. Sunday, 15C.

    With proper mixing and sunshine, this equates to approximately 92-96 degrees each day, with the warmest towards the end of the week.

    YIKES!

    I, for one, am SICK TO DEATH OF HHH weather!

    For summer weather, I like 50s night and 85 during day with dew points no
    higher than 60. But we don’t get those days often. 😀

    Chantal certainly took a dive. 😀

    we’ll see what develops down the road.

  27. Regarding possible tropical systems up here.

    Please have a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature map. Note how close
    80F water is and after that 70s all the way to our South Coast. I think a trpoical
    system would pretty much hold together all the way up here.

    http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/nem.html

  28. Hey didn’t TK joke the other day about the GFS showing an upper low retrograding ALL the way to Oklahoma??? Well it IS!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071306&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=000

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071306&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=012

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071306&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=024

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071306&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=048

      1. Much better with the break in the weather, but we’re going right back into the CRAP. Thank you.

    2. What’s funny is that I was buying the GFS over the Euro at that point too. It’s done a better job, marginally, of late.

  29. From NWS at Taunton:

    To what JOHN said:

    MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
    CORE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST TO OUR
    SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
    LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND IT WILL BE HUMID.
    AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME
    LOCALES…SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
    PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SEA BREEZES AT TIMES…SO IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT STILL QUITE HUMID.

    THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…
    THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
    THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. IT STILL SHOULD BE HOT AND HUMID…BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO THE REGION AT TIMES. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN JULY WITH A HOT/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING THE RISK OF PERHAPS SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION IS OF COURSE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT…BUT IT CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

    1. Thanks OS. I’d like to request a strong sea breeze starting a week from today and lasting a couple of weeks please. Even a land breeze works since we have water on both sides so I’m not picky 🙂

    2. From the SPC:

      SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE
      IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD…PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER…IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
      MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS…THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.

  30. Ahhhhhh. Finally some HHH weather! LOL. Love it and look forward to it.

    In channel 4’s forecast discussion, it was noted that this COULD BE the last stretch of 90’s for the summer due to a trough that will develop over the northeast in the coming days bringing us relief. It is believed that this weakening ridge coupled with more seasonal air in August could put a permanent end to this HHH weather after this week. Sound good?

    Here are my thoughts: I don’t see a pattern change any time soon, nor do I forsee an end to HHH weather for the rest of the summer. I agree with TK, so as you can see, I’m not buying it.

    Enjoy your last “cool” day 😀 I’m off to Story Land with the kids. Hopefully coastal is having a nice time. I think he comes back today!

    2. Have fun Arod. I don’t think this will be the last hot stretch at all. Summer is not even a month old yet. I see a hot and dry summer. That’s how it should be as the season is so short.

      1. Thank you North! My kids are looking forward to it and since I’m a kid at heart…so am I! 😀

  31. How can anyone possibly call for the last stretch of HHH in a discussion written on July 13?

    That’s like calling for being done with chances for snow after Groundhog Day.

    1. The potential is always there 😉

      As I think of it maybe its psychological. The mets are just trying to make people feel more positive with winter snow ending and summer heat ending.

      Anyone have data on the percentages of summers with continued/endless HHH weather? I’m thinking around 35% but less than half. IMHO this is not typical any more than 100 inches of winter snow is typical….although both are not out of the question.

      1. Our notable summers with very long stretches and repeating HHH include 1980, 1983, 1988, 1995, 2002, among others. They were more common earlier in the 1900s.

    2. Actually TK, the discussion was written a couple of days ago. Check it out on the cbs4 weather page. It can be found at “Beyond the Forecast.” I forget the METs name who wrote it. It wasn’t BB or TG. I was suprised as well.

  32. One of the “trolls” may have just given himself away on the WBZ FB page. 😉

      1. There is only one person who shows up on things related to WBZ and uses the word “tool” … It’s in comments under a weather-related post. 🙂

    2. I just remember. It was a forecast discussion written by Joe Joyce in the “Beyond the Forecast” page a couple of days ago.

            1. Mrs north and My entire family have a lot in common. I love summer and rarely wish for the next season to be here cause time passes too quickly. That being said, we have the same mushrooms retrac has, slugs are organizing a parade up the walls of our house, ear wigs have taken up residence on our porch because the tile floor is constantly set from the humidity. What’s not to love. 🙂

  33. Most of the people that live here now are from warmer regions around the world and country, not many new Englanders esp in Boston, I think only 25% of the residents that live in Boston are from New England, sure the homegrown New Englanders think 90 degrees is a heat wave, but people from India,Mexico or mostly anyone else in this country south of us are warmer, all of my customers that aren’t from here and have either moved here from warmer climates which is mostly the case aren’t impressed with 90 degrees. What a crap day so far 😉

    1. Ahhhh but other regions that are typically warmer all have AC and many more have pools. That’s kind of like saying someone from New England isn’t impressed with a one inch snow storm down south. Neither if fair as the areas are not prepared for it

      1. I used to laugh at texans when they would get an inch of snow, they shut down the city for an inch of snow in Dallas like Boston during the manhunt back in April

  34. OS – I read that report from the NWS just before I read what you wrote re: the possibility of severe weather at the end of nxt. wk. Yikes – does that mean the potential of tornadoes and multiple tornado warnings? I hope not.

    Another long-term heat wave and possibility of severe weather. Hmmm, I usually don’t start looking forward to autumn until the end of August. But I’m beginning to look forward to cooler, drier and relatively calmer days (unless you have a tropical storm in the works). Maybe it’s just because of my personal problems this summer – haven’t really been able to enjoy the hhh like I have in previous summers.

    3. Rain,

      The NWS didn’t say it, but when they indicated W to NW aloft, with surface winds at SW, then with proper lifting and decent CAPEs etc. it would be
      “possible” to get rotating updrafts in Severe thunderstorms which “could”
      produce tornadoes. Too early to know right now. All the proper conditions may not come together, but it is certainly one thing I’ll be watching. 😀

      Hope hubbie recovers really soon.

  35. North, Vicki – thank you for asking. My husband is still in the hospital – they did a lot of tests on him and they all came out negative. However, he has some abscesses in some of his teeth and that could be the cause. Thankfully, for the past 2 days his fever has gone and we hope it stays away. An oral surgeon will come in Mon. and look at his teeth – and possibly drain any abscesses if there are any. If so, he might have to stay a bit longer – understandable. But. if it isn’t that, and he continues to improve, he might come home Mon. Both me and Cara (our cat) really miss him!

    My mother is doing ok – she had a stomach-ache the past few days, but she’s ok. Ordinarily, we wouldn’t pay that much attention, but w/her condition, we are always kind of on alert.

  36. Looking at the 12Z GFS for Thursday PM, surface winds from SW.
    850mb (about 5,000 feet) are from the West. 700 mb winds (about 10,000 feet or so) winds are WNW and at 500MB (18,000 feet) winds are NW.

    SREF doesn’t go that far out to check. Will be monitoring that as it gets in range.

    Assuming proper lift is available (approaching cold front) and the energy is there (Cape) then it could get WILD around these parts. We shall see.

    That retrograded upper Low will be providing the NW winds aloft. NOT Good
    if you don’t want severe weather.

  37. The late week period next week is something to keep an eye on. So many things got to line up just right and its way out in the future.

  38. The extended forecasts from the TV mets in terms of temps are extremely variable to say the least:

    Ch. 4 – 90’s widespread all week through next Saturday
    Ch. 5 – 90 on Sunday, then mid-80’s with all day rains for Friday
    Ch. 7 – 90’s just inland/80’s to near 90 Boston and coast with daily seabreezes

    TK – Which forecast will most likely verify in your opinion?

    1. Philip, I saw that and was giving Ch. 4 the nod but I’m not sure anymore. Maybe T-storms/showers will cool things off here and there. Was driving home from CT yesterday and ran into a strong shower and the temp dropped 5 degrees in a matter of a couple of minutes.

    2. None of them completely:

      The most widespread part of the heatwave will be Monday through Thursday. Some areas may reach 90 today and several will probably reach it on Friday (though it may be less than the 4 days preceding it). A little disturbance may kick off a few showers/storms later this afternoon and early evening but I think most places miss them (favored areas area southern NH and northeastern MA). Mostly air mass isolated storms any day Monday-Thursday in the heat, and of course always have to watch for a small scale disturbance coming along (which the models do NOT pick up well on in advance) that could enhance a storm or two, but largely rain-free these days. Cold front drops through the region late Friday or early Saturday kicking off more numerous showers/storms at some point (timing will determine coverage and strength). New high pressure bubble comes in over the weekend, not as hot but still very warm, slightly drier but still somewhat humid.

      That is how I envision the next 8 days. In fact you just got a preview of the blog I’m working on now and will be out by about 9AM.

  39. Today’s Accuweather Trivis Quiz.

    On avaerage, how many 90+ degree days does Boston experience in a year?
    A. 5
    B. 10
    C. 15
    D. 20

    Answer later today.

  40. BB said on July 10 that this month has been excessively hot (his words). 7.9 deg above average as of that date

  41. I will go with C.
    Stickorama once again this week after a brief break in the heat and humidity. Keeping an eye late week on what COULD be a timeframe of interest. Storm Prediction Center highlighting our area for POTENTIAL severe weather. Beyond the day three outlook they don’t highlight an area unless there is a 30% chance of severe weather. So many things have to line up right for severe storms but it does show there are ingredients in place for thunderstorms.
    I’m not worried since its way out in the future but its something to keep in mind for late week.

  42. First update for today is posted. Second one coming this evening with more detail. 🙂

  43. Just a simple question and answer, why is massachusetts ranks near last for business friendly states? Just curious, and how do we improve this to a more respectable ranking like top 10? Thank you! Another hot day ugh

    1. Mass is 48th, Ct is 49, RI is 50th, Maine 46th, Vt is 45th and nh is 37th, this is embarrassing, who goes on living here saying this is acceptable?

      1. There’s gotta be someone on here that knows why New England is last is creating business, and what r the other states doing right to create business, I’m out of the loop on this

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